Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    In our study we found that compared with 2020, the most ambitious national proposals for CDR imply an additional 0.5 GtCO2 yr-1 of remov als by 2030, and 1.9 GtCO2 yr-1 by 2050. Compared with CDR scaling in Paris Agreement-consistent scenarios, we found that these national CDR proposals tend to fall short by hundreds of megatonnes of car bon dioxide in 2030 to several gigatonnes of carbon dioxide in 2050, highlighting a 'CDR gap'. ...

    Options:
    A. However, we find that the most ambitious proposals do come close to levels in a low-energy-demand scenario where CDR requirements are minimized, suggesting that if countries pledge more ambitious emissions reductions consistent with these scenarios, the CDR gap will be closed.
B. As levels of reporting vary, our evaluation of proposed CDR does assume that a number of countries simply maintain their current levels of (conventional) removals.
C. In addition, it remains unknown to what extent firm CDR policies will follow these proposals.
D. We evaluated CDR proposals based on a range of country-submitted reports to the UNFCCC.
E. In the LULUCF sector, inventories are based on direct observations and hence cannot factor out 'indirect anthro pogenic effects'.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We evaluated CDR proposals based on a range of country-submitted reports to the UNFCCC. In the LULUCF sector, inventories are based on direct observations and hence cannot factor out 'indirect anthro pogenic effects'. ...

    Options:
    A. Since this inflates apparent proposals for CDR when compared to scenario conventions, we discount these indirect effects to focus only on direct anthropogenic removals, consistent with the IPCC definition of CDR.
B. We then added conventional removals to any national proposals for scaling novel CDR.
C. Finally, we benchmarked the collective national proposals against CDR in a set of Paris Agreement-consistent integrated assessment scenarios, orienting our selection of scenarios to those with relatively moderate levels of CDR scaling — recognizing the existence of both sustainability constraints and limits to the pace of upscaling.
D. Many countries have declared net-zero targets as part of their commit ments under the Paris Agreement.
E. In addition to emissions reductions, these national targets imply proposals to sustain or increase carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    As the urgency for climate action increases, financial regulators, super visors and central banks are facing growing calls to bring financial regulations in line with a transition to net-zero carbon emissions. Vari ous proposals have been made in the literature, such as green quantita tive easing, direct central bank financing, lending quotas, including environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in asset eligibility criteria, and differentiated prudential regulation. ...

    Options:
    A. Financial regula tors and supervisors are currently holding back on these proposals.
B. However, the existing structure of some global financial regulations may inadvertently favour investments in carbon-intensive activities.
C. This could negatively impact the speed of the transition to net-zero carbon emissions and increase the exposure of the financial system to climate-related risks in the long term.
D. We find that under the current regulations, if 59 of the largest banks in the European Union (EU) were to divest from high-carbon sectors and reinvest in other activities, they would record, on average, losses equivalent to about 15% of their previous 5 years' profits.
E. We show that this is due to the increase in loan loss provisions required to cover the higher estimated risk of low-carbon-intensity activities, compared with high-carbon-intensity activities.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that under the current regulations, if 59 of the largest banks in the European Union (EU) were to divest from high-carbon sectors and reinvest in other activities, they would record, on average, losses equivalent to about 15% of their previous 5 years' profits. We show that this is due to the increase in loan loss provisions required to cover the higher estimated risk of low-carbon-intensity activities, compared with high-carbon-intensity activities. ...

    Options:
    A. We show that the average estimate of risk (expressed in terms of the ratio between loan loss reserves and outstanding loans) among EU banks is lower for carbon-intensive activi ties as opposed to low-carbon activities (1.8% and 3.4%, respectively, in 2021).
B. This is likely to be due to the backward-looking structure of model-based risk estimates that fails to adequately incorporate recent policy changes, the declining costs of low-carbon technologies and other ongoing factors.
C. We argue that this creates disincentives for banks to invest in new low-carbon assets and exposes them to future risks from high-carbon assets.
D. We analyse EU banks' portfolios and associated accounting requirements (IFRS9) using data from the European Banking Authority.
E. Specifically, we focus on the accounting rules of banks that rely on model-based risk assessments, similar to other financial regu lations such as capital requirements.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We analyse EU banks' portfolios and associated accounting require ments (IFRS9) using data from the European Banking Authority. Specifically, we focus on the accounting rules of banks that rely on model-based risk assessments, similar to other financial regu lations such as capital requirements. ...

    Options:
    A. We classify investments into high-carbon and low-carbon emission intensity, leveraging the Cli mate Policy Relevant Sectors (CPRS) classification, and test the robust ness of our findings with various classifications.
B. We first investigate the relationship between the accounting requirements' model-based risk estimates and the classification of high- or low-carbon intensity.
C. We then use the accounting relationship between model-based risk estimates, loan loss provisions and profits to assess the potential losses emerging from an active investment strategy to shift from high- to low-carbon-intensity activities by banks.
D. Finally, we provide evidence across various risk models of a negative correlation between risk estimates and emission intensity and analyse the possible finan cial drivers of such differences.
E. As the urgency for climate action increases, financial regulators, super visors and central banks are facing growing calls to bring financial regulations in line with a transition to net-zero carbon emissions.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Over the past two decades, an increasing number of countries have been decreasing their corporate tax rates in a competitive effort to attract international capital inflows. The worldwide competition to lower cor porate taxes could pose challenges to climate change mitigation efforts, especially because developing nations with higher carbon-intensity might become tax havens. ...

    Options:
    A. To capitalize on lower corporate taxes, mul tinational enterprises might shift their production activities to these regions, potentially increasing global carbon emissions.
B. However, such claims lack quantitative support.
C. Understanding the potential envi ronmental impacts of global corporate tax competition is crucial for policymakers interested in developing sustainable economic policies that prioritize environmental conservation and address the challenges posed by global corporate tax competition.
D. We find that the global corporate tax competition from 2005 to 2016 resulted in an increase in global emissions by reshaping the geographi cal distribution of production through an impact on trade and invest ment.
E. This leads to a shift of more emissions towards developing economies, with a notable rise of 118.5 MtCO2 emissions in developing countries compared with a modest rise of 10.2 MtCO2 in developed countries.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that the global corporate tax competition from 2005 to 2016 resulted in an increase in global emissions by reshaping the geographi cal distribution of production through an impact on trade and invest ment. This leads to a shift of more emissions towards developing economies, with a notable rise of 118.5 MtCO2 emissions in developing countries compared with a modest rise of 10.2 MtCO2 in developed countries. ...

    Options:
    A. To address the global corporate tax competition, more than 130 countries and jurisdictions approved a global minimum tax rate of 15% in October 2021.
B. We find that the global minimum corporate tax would contribute to climate change mitigation, albeit to a modest extent.
C. Our study may underestimate the environmental effects of global corporate tax competition as we do not consider its negative impact on low-carbon technology.
D. We develop a theoretical multi-country, multi-industry general equilib rium model.
E. By taking into account multinational enterprises, interna tional trade flows and corporate tax, the constructed model is suitable for analysing the impact of tax change on regional and global carbon emissions through reshaping global production and investment pat terns.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We develop a theoretical multi-country, multi-industry general equilib rium model. By taking into account multinational enterprises, interna tional trade flows and corporate tax, the constructed model is suitable for analysing the impact of tax change on regional and global carbon emissions through reshaping global production and investment pat terns. ...

    Options:
    A. We first calibrate our general equilibrium model to 2016 data, based on the ICIO-AMNE (Inter-country Input-Output and Activity of Multinational Enterprises) tables and other data from KPMG, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) database.
B. The data are publicly available and can be freely down loaded.
C. We further conduct two counterfactuals to quantify the welfare and environmental impacts of global corporate tax competition and the OECD's global minimum tax policy.
D. Welfare is a composite measure encompassing both real income and the disutility arising from global carbon emissions.
E. We conduct our first counterfactual by forcing all economies' corporate tax rate changes as these economies actually did from 2005 to 2016 while keeping other exogenous variables constant.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Policymakers face the question of which policy instruments are suitable for financing negative emissions. For example, the Euro pean Union is discussing the opportunity of introducing negative emission technologies (NETs) into its emission trading scheme, the largest carbon market in the world. ...

    Options:
    A. In the long run, the inclusion of carbon removal in a carbon pricing framework alongside other emis sion reduction methods, such as renewable energy, holds appeal: this approach theoretically allows for the achievement of emission reduction targets at the lowest possible cost.
B. In a carbon market, how ever, the carbon price serves as a revenue for NET companies.
C. Owing to technical progress, the average cost of carbon removal might fall well below the anticipated carbon price as emissions near zero.
D. Consequently, owners of NETs might reap windfall profits, leading to a substantial increase in economic inequality if these technologies are privately owned.
E. We find that privately owned NETs integrated into a carbon market designed for emission reductions increases economic inequality.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that privately owned NETs integrated into a carbon market designed for emission reductions increases economic inequality. Within each country, three factors drive the severity of the inequality increase: (1) the profit margin of NET companies; (2) the concentration of ownership of NET companies towards the top of the income distribu tion; and (3) the amount of negative emissions in the market. ...

    Options:
    A. Therefore, small economies with high carbon-removal potential, concentrated equity ownership and expensive mitigation options are particularly susceptible to the inequality risk.
B. In our analysis, we model a single NET (direct air capture) and global climate policy in line with the Paris Agreement.
C. However, our results generalize to other negative emission options and to other climate policies (for example, net-zero pledges) whenever the above considerations apply and the technology value chain mostly benefits the rich.
D. We carried out our analysis with an open-source integrated assess ment model at high geographical resolution; we improved the numerical model with an explicit representation of income distri bution, which allows the dynamics of both within-country and global inequality to be captured.
E. We projected key variables over time, such as gross domestic product (GDP), emissions, baseline inequality, emission reduction costs, concentration of capital, and distributional incidence of climate policy and income taxes, assuming continuation of current trends.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We carried out our analysis with an open-source integrated assess ment model at high geographical resolution; we improved the numerical model with an explicit representation of income distri bution, which allows the dynamics of both within-country and global inequality to be captured. We projected key variables over time, such as gross domestic product (GDP), emissions, baseline inequality, emission reduction costs, concentration of capital, and distributional incidence of climate policy and income taxes, assuming continuation of current trends. ...

    Options:
    A. Our central scenario assumes a global uniform carbon tax consistent with the well-below 2 °C target embedded in the Paris Agreement.
B. To identify robust insights, we carried out a large number of numerical simulations, varying international own ership of capital, international trade of negative emission permits, double markets for negative emissions and different interpretations of climate policies.
C. Policymakers face the question of which policy instruments are suitable for financing negative emissions.
D. For example, the Euro pean Union is discussing the opportunity of introducing negative emission technologies (NETs) into its emission trading scheme, the largest carbon market in the world.
E. Within each country, three factors drive the severity of the inequality increase: (1) the profit margin of NET companies; (2) the concentration of ownership of NET companies towards the top of the income distribu tion; and (3) the amount of negative emissions in the market.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Many countries want to assume responsibility for climate change by introducing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, reaching an agreement so that a large coalition of countries proceeds jointly is challenging, leading to concerns that taking unilateral action might cause freeriding behaviour or carbon leakage. ...

    Options:
    A. Freeriding behaviour means other countries might diminish their efforts as another country has partly handled the problem.
B. Carbon leakage implies that other countries might offset the lead country's efforts by increasing their emissions.
C. When some, but not all, countries are willing to implement climate policy, a stalemate situation can occur, where no country acts.
D. Alternatively, freeriding and carbon leakage concerns can complicate policymaking and delay climate policy introduction.
E. We find that a country that introduces carbon pricing increases the probability that connected countries will also introduce carbon pricing.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that a country that introduces carbon pricing increases the probability that connected countries will also introduce carbon pricing. A connection between countries can be related to geography, trade or international organizations. ...

    Options:
    A. This international diffusion of climate policies can result in large emissions reductions abroad that even exceed the domestic emissions reductions of a policy.
B. Previous research indicates that the positive influence might work through policy learning, technology diffusion or fairness considerations.
C. The results also suggest that countries can introduce carbon pricing without concern for freeriding.
D. Leadership in climate policy contributes to resolving the challenge of climate change at the global level by encouraging others.
E. The paper also points out that international policy diffusion addresses possible concerns about carbon leakage.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    This study uses a global dataset on carbon pricing policies, country connections and previously shown variables to explain which countries introduce carbon pricing. The study consists of two parts. ...

    Options:
    A. In the first part, we empirically estimated the probability that a country would introduce carbon pricing depending on previous policies in other countries and the connections between countries regarding geographic proximity and shared membership in international organizations.
B. The study uses proportional hazard models that address the binary nature of policy adoption and the probability of yet unobserved future adoption.
C. In the second part, we used the statistical results to simulate international policy diffusion and calculate the indirect greenhouse gas emissions reductions from diffusion.
D. To this aim, Monte Carlo simulations incorporating the probabilistic empirical estimates were used.
E. The indirect emissions reductions are only calculated for countries that have not yet introduced carbon pricing (Fig. 1).

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Large fractions of the global forest and natural land cover are not effec tively protected. If bioenergy cultivation is not strictly limited to mar ginal or abandoned land, bioenergy may be grown on agricultural land and displace food production. ...

    Options:
    A. Shifting food production elsewhere can cause substantial carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions due to forest clearing in regions with weak or no land regulation.
B. This puts policymakers in a difficult situation, because these indirect effects act via a globalized food market and thus are beyond the control of policies of individual nations.
C. Because bioenergy and, in particular, modern biofuels are regarded as a valuable option to reduce emissions from burning fossil fuels, it is thus important to understand if and potentially how locally implementable policies can contribute to reducing bioenergy-induced emissions.
D. With an average emission factor (EF) of 92 kgCO2 GJ-1, we find that the production of modern biofuels, if averaged over a 30-year period, causes land-use-change emissions that are higher than those from burn ing fossil diesel (Fig. 1).
E. If policymakers tax bioenergy according to these average expected emissions, that is, apply a similar carbon price to a litre of biofuels as to a litre of diesel, the total future bioenergy-induced emissions decrease, as the demand is reduced.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    With an average emission factor (EF) of 92 kgCO2 GJ-1, we find that the production of modern biofuels, if averaged over a 30-year period, causes land-use-change emissions that are higher than those from burn ing fossil diesel (Fig. 1). If policymakers tax bioenergy according to these average expected emissions, that is, apply a similar carbon price to a litre of biofuels as to a litre of diesel, the total future bioenergy-induced emissions decrease, as the demand is reduced. ...

    Options:
    A. However, we show that such a policy cannot bring down the high average emissions that are attributed to biofuels.
B. Only strict and globally comprehensive protec tion of natural land will reduce the EF and hence, only then, will those biofuels that replace fossil fuels effectively reduce CO2 emissions.
C. This study used the integrated assessment modelling framework REMIND-MAgPIE coupling the energy and the land systems to derive alternative transformation scenarios consistent with limiting global warming well below 2 °C.
D. The scenarios differ with respect to assump tions on land-use and energy policies, which have a large influence on CO2 emissions from land-use change and also affect the amount of bioenergy used to fulfil the global energy demand.
E. Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    This study used the integrated assessment modelling framework REMIND-MAgPIE coupling the energy and the land systems to derive alternative transformation scenarios consistent with limiting global warming well below 2 °C. The scenarios differ with respect to assump tions on land-use and energy policies, which have a large influence on CO2 emissions from land-use change and also affect the amount of bioenergy used to fulfil the global energy demand. ...

    Options:
    A. By deriving a counterfactual scenario, in which bioenergy is not available and hence land-use-change emissions are lower, we can attribute emissions to bioenergy production and derive an EF (emissions per unit of biofuel produced).
B. In comparison to previous studies that analysed biofuel EFs, our approach using future climate change mitigation pathways allows us to compare the EF in the light of different policy frameworks, which we find are the most important to determine the emissions that can be expected from producing biofuels.
C. Large fractions of the global forest and natural land cover are not effec tively protected.
D. If bioenergy cultivation is not strictly limited to mar ginal or abandoned land, bioenergy may be grown on agricultural land and displace food production.
E. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Over a third of the US population believes that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, suggesting that politicians propos ing to enact costly policies to address it may be at risk of losing their next election. While concern varies elsewhere, there is a large gap, globally, between the level of concern exhibited and the level of sup port needed to meet climate change mitigation goals. ...

    Options:
    A. A market-based mechanism, or climate prediction market, could help close this gap (Fig. 1).
B. At scale, such a mechanism could also generate a new branch of the financial information sector dedicated to predicting the con sequences of climate change, which could have substantial economic value for steering mitigation measures.
C. Further, provided that each bet has a pre-determined arbiter for the outcome settlement, this market-based resolution mechanism could be useful in other topics of potential controversy outside of climate action.
D. Participation in a climate prediction market, where individuals make predictions about climate futures and earn/lose money based on their forecasting accuracy, increases concern about global warming, support to mitigate the risks of climate change and knowledge about climate issues.
E. This is true across levels of initial belief in climate change and political ideology.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Participation in a climate prediction market, where individuals make predictions about climate futures and earn/lose money based on their forecasting accuracy, increases concern about global warming, support to mitigate the risks of climate change and knowledge about climate issues. This is true across levels of initial belief in climate change and political ideology. ...

    Options:
    A. In one study (with a polarized group of climate believ ers and sceptics), the shift in perspective was contingent on winning (people who made money in their predictions also shifted their beliefs), whereas in a study including participants with more moderate views, the changes occurred independent of winning.
B. This research provides a practical way to increase people's concern about climate change, as well as a powerful tool for policymakers to poll public opinion about climate issues, test potential future policies, inject private money to a new financial instrument and even use potential market gains towards climate solutions.
C. Participants completed surveys before and after engaging in a predic tion market.
D. The surveys measured their climate concerns, support for climate action and climate knowledge.
E. A large gap exists between the concerns over the risks of climate change and the support needed for effective climate actions.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Participants completed surveys before and after engaging in a predic tion market. The surveys measured their climate concerns, support for climate action and climate knowledge. ...

    Options:
    A. Between the surveys, partici pants were randomly assigned to either engage in a climate prediction market (treatment) or a control group.
B. In study 1 (n = 143), the control group sat idle, while in study 2 (n = 664), the control group engaged in a sports and entertainment prediction market.
C. During the predic tion period, participants in the climate prediction market made bets about future climate outcomes (that is, “Will the number of wildfires in California exceed 5,500 by August 8, 2022?”).
D. Over a third of the US population believes that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, suggesting that politicians propos ing to enact costly policies to address it may be at risk of losing their next election.
E. While concern varies elsewhere, there is a large gap, globally, between the level of concern exhibited and the level of sup port needed to meet climate change mitigation goals.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Many governments have announced net-zero targets in the past few years, and now face the task of laying out specific roadmaps to reach those targets. Realistic net-zero roadmaps, as well as financing and planning the technologies and infrastructure for deep decarboniza tion and carbon removal, require governments to be able to project the amounts of residual emissions that will remain at net zero and understand what sectors will have remaining emissions. ...

    Options:
    A. A mismatch between the amounts of residual emissions that countries expect and the available carbon removal capacity would jeopardize the goals laid out in the Paris Agreement.
B. Thus, it is important to understand ques tions as to how residual emissions are defined, what amounts are pro jected, how they are distributed among sectors, and whether countries expect land-based or technological removals to compensate for these residual emissions.
C. Our results show that most countries with quantified projections are expecting large amounts of residual emissions by 2050, and that sub stantial carbon removal effort would therefore be needed.
D. We found no consistent definition or use of the concept of residual emissions across the 50 long-term low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) analysed.
E. Achieving net zero means balancing remaining emissions with carbon removal, and understanding the nature and scope of residual emissions is key to planning decarbonized energy and industrial systems.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Our results show that most countries with quantified projections are expecting large amounts of residual emissions by 2050, and that sub stantial carbon removal effort would therefore be needed. We found no consistent definition or use of the concept of residual emissions across the 50 long-term low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) analysed. ...

    Options:
    A. A majority of the LT-LEDS did not mention the concept of residual emissions at all, despite having a net-zero target.
B. The Annex 1 country LT-LEDS that did quantify residual emissions at net zero pro jected substantial levels; on average, 18% of current emissions based on the lowest-level projections (Fig. 1).
C. Agriculture and industry rep resented the largest sources of residual emissions in the 15 Annex I countries that included sectoral breakdowns.
D. While some countries plan for land-based removals to compensate for their residuals, the biggest emitters expect land-based removals to fall far short of residuals, indicating a need for technological removal.
E.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    This study analysed 50 of the 51 LT-LEDS that had been submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as of mid-2022. We looked at LT-LEDS because other sources of com parable data on country projections, such as national strategy docu ments or nationally determined contributions, tend to have shorter time horizons than would be relevant for net-zero goals. ...

    Options:
    A. Importantly, most LT-LEDS present pathways, or what-if explorations of different scenarios for reaching desired targets.
B. These scenarios and quanti fied projections inform the strategy, but are meant to be illustrative of possible futures rather than prescriptive.
C. Right now, many of the countries that have submitted LT-LEDS are in the Global North.
D. How ever, these countries are the first adopters of both LT-LEDS and net-zero targets, and their assessment and actions may set the tone for countries that follow.
E. Many governments have announced net-zero targets in the past few years, and now face the task of laying out specific roadmaps to reach those targets.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Annually, the world spends about US$697 billion on directly subsidizing fossil fuels. If indirect costs were also included (such as the contribution of fossil fuels to global warming, local air pollution and other externali ties, and foregone consumption tax), subsidies would be 6.8% of the global gross domestic product. ...

    Options:
    A. The costs of maintaining fossil fuel subsidies are expected to increase and be regressive for developing countries especially when they are less resource-endowed and have more difficulties in raising fiscal revenues than developed countries.
B. Removing fossil fuel subsidies is crucial not only for making more valu able use of government funds, but also for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and making carbon pricing policies more effective.
C. Cur rently, scientific evidence on the scale and scope of public attitudes toward fossil fuel subsidy removal policies is scarce.
D. We investigate the public opinion on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies in five devel oping countries.
E. We find that opposition to removal of existing subsidies is not greater than opposition to possible carbon pricing implementation.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that opposition to removal of existing subsidies is not greater than opposition to possible carbon pricing implementation. Our results indicate that the public in fact considers a subsidy removal policy as being equally desirable (or undesirable) as the introduction of a carbon tax. ...

    Options:
    A. If so, we should expect suggestions for subsidy removal to be met with similar public opposition or support as has been seen for other carbon pricing measures.
B. There are few studies with which we can compare our findings.
C. Therefore, there are reasons to be cautious in making general conclusions about the extent to which there will be support for the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, at least in the coun tries we studied.
D. Furthermore, the public in different countries may turn out to have different preferences for how additional revenues from either removing subsidies or collected taxes should be used (Fig. 1).
E. By using a 1 × 7, pre-registered survey experiment (N = 6,636), we con tribute to the existing literature in the following ways: (1) fivedeveloping countries (Ecuador, Egypt, India, Indonesia and Mexico) are studied — they were selected because they all have large subsidies for fossil fuel linked to both its consumption and production;

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    By using a 1 × 7, pre-registered survey experiment (N = 6,636), we con tribute to the existing literature in the following ways: (1) fivedeveloping countries (Ecuador, Egypt, India, Indonesia and Mexico) are studied — they were selected because they all have large subsidies for fossil fuel linked to both its consumption and production. (2) we analyse public attitudes toward the introduction of a carbon tax, and the removal of subsidies on both industrial and private consumption of fossil fuels. ...

    Options:
    A. (3) we examine whether and how attitudes toward subsidy removal and carbon taxation may differ from each other.
B. (4) we study whether policies that use savings from fossil fuel subsidy removals to invest in the social and economic welfare system lead to more positive attitudes toward subsidy removal.
C. Annually, the world spends about US$697 billion on directly subsidizing fossil fuels.
D. If indirect costs were also included (such as the contribution of fossil fuels to global warming, local air pollution and other externali ties, and foregone consumption tax), subsidies would be 6.8% of the global gross domestic product.
E. Removing fossil fuel subsidies is important for mitigation and making carbon pricing polices effective.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Designing management strategies for large dams requires the adoption of a multi-dimensional approach to foster synergies, identify efficient tradeoffs and optimize economic performance. Dam negotiations between the Nile riparian countries have traditionally used only bio physical metrics, such as irrigation water supplies and hydropower gen eration, even though governments often build dams to achieve wider economic goals. ...

    Options:
    A. The implications of climate change uncertainty for the Nile hydrology (for example, streamflow and irrigation demands) and the economies of its riparian countries (for example, economic development pathways, population growth and climate policies) mean non-adaptive dam management can perform poorly.
B. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile triggered political tensions between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, with negotiations between the countries yet to reach an agreement.
C. While negotiations over the GERD have been ongoing since 2011, economy-wide metrics alongside climate change uncertainties have not been considered in developing and evaluating dam operation proposals for the Nile.
D. Based on 29 climate projections, we find that both the sign and magnitude of potential changes in naturalized streamflow of the Nile in 2021-2050 are highly uncertain.
E. These uncertainties spark the need for an adaptive and cooperative approach.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Based on 29 climate projections, we find that both the sign and magnitude of potential changes in naturalized streamflow of the Nile in 2021-2050 are highly uncertain. These uncertainties spark the need for an adaptive and cooperative approach. ...

    Options:
    A. We show that cooperative adaptive manage ment of the GERD yields compromise solutions with economy-wide ben efits to Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt compared with a proposal discussed in Washington, D.C. in 2020 (Fig. 1).
B. Under an example compromise solution (Fig. 1), the mean (based on 29 projections) discounted (at 3%) real gross domestic product (GDP) increases by US$0.77, 0.67 and 0.18 billion in 2020-2045 for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, respectively, relative to the Washington draft proposal.
C. These benefits are more pronounced under extreme climate scenarios, with rises in discounted real GDP of up to US$15.8, 6.3 and 3.0 billion over 2020-2045 for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, respectively.
D. Our results should be complemented by evaluating the impacts on ecology, groundwater and riparian populations.
E. We developed a planning framework for Nile infrastructure manage ment considering the socio-economic and hydrological uncertainties of climate change.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We developed a planning framework for Nile infrastructure manage ment considering the socio-economic and hydrological uncertainties of climate change. The framework integrates hydrological, economy-wide and river system simulators driven by climate and socio-economic data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). ...

    Options:
    A. This framework enables the estimation of multiple economy-wide and engineering performance metrics under various infrastructure manage ment plans and climate change projections.
B. The simulators were cali brated and validated, and the climate change data were bias-corrected and downscaled before being used.
C. The climate scenario ensemble includes members synthesized to address the wetting tendency of cli mate models known as the 'East African climate paradox'.
D. The most efficient operational designs for a cooperative and adaptive GERD man agement formulation were identified by linking the integrated simula tors with an artificial intelligence search algorithm over thousands of iterations.
E. We then compared the performance under the identified efficient, optimized plans with that of the Washington draft proposal.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    A total of 151 countries submitted updated or new climate pledges to the 26th United Nations Conference of Parties (COP26) held in Glasgow in November 2021, outlining their plans to cut GHG emissions. Countries also communicated long-term strategies that outline emission reduction strategies to the mid-century and net-zero emissions targets. ...

    Options:
    A. Although these updated and new pledges suggest higher ambition as compared with the 2015 Paris pledges, limiting global warming below 1.5 °C this century — the goal of the Paris Agreement — will require countries to further ratchet or increase ambition.
B. Recognizing the need for more ambition, nations adopted the Glasgow Climate Pact, which calls for countries “to revisit and strengthen the…targets…to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2022”.
C. This study explores the long-term temperature outcomes of ratcheting or increasing ambition, as well as what this ratcheting implies for sectoral and regional emissions.
D. We find that ratcheting near-term ambition to 2030 will be crucial to limiting peak temperature changes this century (Fig. 1).
E. If ratcheting is delayed, it would result in higher temperature overshooting — that is, an exceedance of global mean temperature change above the intended threshold before returning to below the intended level — over many decades, with the potential for adverse and irreversible consequences for human and natural systems.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that ratcheting near-term ambition to 2030 will be crucial to limiting peak temperature changes this century (Fig. 1). If ratcheting is delayed, it would result in higher temperature overshooting — that is, an exceedance of global mean temperature change above the intended threshold before returning to below the intended level — over many decades, with the potential for adverse and irreversible consequences for human and natural systems. ...

    Options:
    A. Our results also suggest that ratchet ing near-term ambition could facilitate faster transitions to net-zero emissions systems — especially in major economies — resulting in faster reductions in emissions from all sectors of the economy for both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions.
B. Although these transitions can be accom plished with limited availability of nascent technologies such as CO2 removal, further research is required to better understand the role of such technologies in high-ambition emissions pathways.
C. We explored a suite of high-ambition emissions pathways in which countries ratchet and achieve ambition through a combination of increasing near-term ambition to 2030, accelerating post-2030 decar bonization, and advancing the dates for national net-zero pledges.
D. We developed the pathways using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which includes representations of the economy, energy, agri culture and land use, water, and climate systems and their interactions in 32 geopolitical regions (including many individual countries) across the globe.
E. Increasing climate ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting global peak temperature changes this century.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We explored a suite of high-ambition emissions pathways in which countries ratchet and achieve ambition through a combination of increasing near-term ambition to 2030, accelerating post-2030 decar bonization, and advancing the dates for national net-zero pledges. We developed the pathways using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which includes representations of the economy, energy, agri culture and land use, water, and climate systems and their interactions in 32 geopolitical regions (including many individual countries) across the globe. ...

    Options:
    A. GCAM tracks emissions of GHGs on the basis of the evolu tion of these systems over the century.
B. These detailed representations allowed us to model countries' emission reduction pledges and the sectoral and regional implications of ratcheting those pledges.
C. We used a simple climate model (Hector) to compute the temperature change implications of the emissions pathways.
D. Our study also includes sensitivity analyses on the availability of CO2 removal technologies and the underlying assumptions and methodology used to construct our emissions pathways.
E. A total of 151 countries submitted updated or new climate pledges to the 26th United Nations Conference of Parties (COP26) held in Glasgow in November 2021, outlining their plans to cut GHG emissions.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Flood damage in the United States is expected to rise in the future due to climate change, population growth and economic growth in floodplains. One way to offset future flood damages is through proper insurance coverage. ...

    Options:
    A. The main provider of flood insurance in the United States is the federally run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), a currently financially unsustainable insurance programme in substan tial debt.
B. Moreover, the NFIP insufficiently incentivizes policyholders to undertake flood risk reduction measures to limit flood damages, because insurance premiums insufficiently reflect flood risk and do not reward risk reduction actions satisfactorily.
C. To address these issues, the NFIP is underway with implementing the Risk Rating 2.0 program, which aims at better premium differentiation through risk-based pre miums and enhanced incentives for individual policyholder flood risk reduction.
D. It is unknown whether these reforms are sufficient for future 'climate-proofing' of the NFIP or whether additional investments in flood protection are needed.
E. We show that risk-based premiums, which are spatially explicit on a household level, result in decreases for some households but substan tial increases for others.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We show that risk-based premiums, which are spatially explicit on a household level, result in decreases for some households but substan tial increases for others. Importantly though, we observe that offering premium discounts to incentivize building-level risk reduction meas ures decreases total residential flood risk across the United States by approximately US$1 billion per year (−7.3%) by 2050 (Fig. 1). ...

    Options:
    A. Combined, introducing risk-based NFIP premiums that incentivize household risk reduction will yield a positive societal net benefit (US$10 billion in 30 years).
B. Complementing this reform with pro-active government investments in large-scale flood protection yields an even higher overall societal net benefit (US$26 billion in 30 years).
C. In conclusion, to fully minimize future flood risk, investments in large-scale flood protection are required in addition to NFIP rating reforms.
D. Whereas our study specifically focusses on the United States, the concept of incentiv izing risk reduction through risk-based pricing is highly relevant for adaptation planning globally.
E. The study applies an innovative flood risk model that not only simulates coastal and fluvial flood occurrences and damages moving forward in time to 2050 for the conterminous United States, but also simulates government and household adaptation decisions interacting with the dynamic flood risk through their decisions on insurance purchase, building-level risk reduction and larger-scale protection for differ ent climate scenarios.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    The study applies an innovative flood risk model that not only simulates coastal and fluvial flood occurrences and damages moving forward in time to 2050 for the conterminous United States, but also simulates government and household adaptation decisions interacting with the dynamic flood risk through their decisions on insurance purchase, building-level risk reduction and larger-scale protection for differ ent climate scenarios. Floods are simulated stochastically based on their return period, influencing how households perceive their risk, which might deviate from true risk, and their perceived value of adap tive measures or buying insurance. ...

    Options:
    A. Furthermore, governments can decide either to proactively (every six years or after a flood event) or reactively (only after a flood event) invest in regional flood pro tection infrastructure.
B. In turn, these government investments will influence the flood insurance demand and risk reduction actions of homeowners.
C. Flood damage in the United States is expected to rise in the future due to climate change, population growth and economic growth in floodplains.
D. One way to offset future flood damages is through proper insurance coverage.
E. Reforms are required to maintain a healthy and robust flood insurance market under future climate conditions for the United States.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Comprehensive regulatory policy to drive down corporate emissions is lacking. At the same time, there is growing pressure from citizens, investors and others for companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. ...

    Options:
    A. 'Science-based targets' are a new development in which companies voluntarily set emission reduction targets intended to be aligned with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
B. For such targets to be effective, companies must account correctly for their emissions.
C. Existing emission accounting standards allow companies to claim emission reductions by purchasing renewable energy certificates.
D. This accounting practice is based on the assumption that the certificates will trigger increased investment in renewable energy generation and will thereby ultimately reduce emissions from electricity production.
E. However, existing research finds very limited empirical evidence supporting this assumption.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We analysed the emissions reporting of 115 companies with approved science-based targets. Eighty-nine per cent of the companies claimed emission reductions through the use of renewable energy certificates. ...

    Options:
    A. In combination, the companies reported a 31% reduction in emissions related to purchased energy during the 2015-2019 period, which would align with the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement (Fig. 1).
B. However, two-thirds of this claimed emission reduction was due to the use of renewable energy certificates that were unlikely to have resulted in actual emission reductions.
C. Hence, the real combined emission reduction was closer to 10%, which is only barely aligned with the well-below 2 °C goal (Fig. 1).
D. Our finding that ineffective renewable energy certificates have led to substantially overstated emission reductions probably also holds for companies that have made other ambitious emission reduction commitments, such as net-zero targets.
E. Among the 813 companies with approved science-based targets at the time, we identified 115 companies with complete disclosure data for the period from 2015 to 2019.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Among the 813 companies with approved science-based targets at the time, we identified 115 companies with complete disclosure data for the period from 2015 to 2019. The data included reported emissions, as well as the variables that companies used to calculate these reported emissions following the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. ...

    Options:
    A. These variables include energy consumption, direct support for new renewable energy production (power purchase agreements) and purchased renewable energy certificates.
B. Based on the disclosed data, we estimated the change in emission intensity of electricity grids over time (that is, the grid decarbonization), which is a fourth variable used in corporate emission accounting.
C. We then estimated the contribution of the four variables to changes in reported emissions and assessed each company's alignment with the goals of the Paris Agreement with and without the contributions from renewable energy certificates (Fig. 1).
D. Comprehensive regulatory policy to drive down corporate emissions is lacking.
E. At the same time, there is growing pressure from citizens, investors and others for companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Advocates view carbon taxation as a cost-effective climate policy that will deliver emissions reductions and spur investment in technological innovation, while raising revenues that can be deployed to address potential costs experienced by low-income households. However, voters often react negatively to the visible costs of a carbon tax, which they can perceive as costly, ineffective and unfair. ...

    Options:
    A. As a result, governments have been reluctant to introduce carbon taxes, proposals have been rejected by citizens in referenda and, even when adopted, carbon taxes have sometimes been reversed.
B. In response, some academics and environmental organizations have called for a 'carbon tax and dividend', in which carbon tax revenue is recycled back to individuals or households as a rebate or dividend.
C. Carbon pricing with revenue recycling maintains the theoretical benefits of carbon pricing but may also strengthen public support for a cost-effective climate policy.
D. Neither Canada nor Switzerland has implemented rebates in a highly visible way.
E. A decade after adoption, we find that 85% of respondents in Switzerland were unaware that they receive rebates.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Neither Canada nor Switzerland has implemented rebates in a highly visible way. A decade after adoption, we find that 85% of respondents in Switzerland were unaware that they receive rebates. ...

    Options:
    A. Awareness was higher soon after the implementation of Canada's carbon tax, but 25% and 45% of respondents in two provinces, respectively, that were subject to the federal tax did not know that they had received an income tax credit.
B. Most citizens in both countries significantly underestimated the value of rebates received.
C. When informed of the true value, Swiss respondents were slightly more supportive of the current tax but not of a tax increase.
D. In Canada, information on rebates did not increase public support.
E. Tracking policy support over time revealed no difference between Canadian provinces with and without rebates.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Our analysis draws on public opinion surveys in the only two countries to have adopted carbon taxes with widespread rebates. In Switzerland, we surveyed 1,050 adults nationwide in 2019, half of whom were randomly selected to receive information on how the rebate works as well as on the value of their carbon tax rebates. ...

    Options:
    A. In Canada, carbon pricing varies across provinces.
B. We surveyed a cohort of residents (n = 890) in five provinces over five waves between 2019 and 2020, before, during and after implementation of Canada's tax and rebate programme.
C. In the two provinces where rebates were implemented, half of the respondents were randomly provided accurate information about their tax dividends.
D. Comparing rebate perceptions and carbon tax support between those who received accurate information and those who did not allowed us to assess the impact of rebate information on public support for carbon pricing.
E. Instead, we found that carbon tax support was conditioned more by respondents' partisan allegiances than by rebates (Fig. 1).

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    One key challenge in identifying equitable climate policies is achieving aggressive mitigation without overburdening already disadvantaged populations, for example through increases in energy and food prices or job losses. Some argue that these costs justify less dramatic emission reductions than those needed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature targets. ...

    Options:
    A. Decision makers therefore face the challenge of preventing runaway climate change while also supporting society's equity goals.
B. Carbon taxes represent one salient policy option to reduce emissions.
C. Although some express scepticism, others argue that the approach is economically efficient and — most importantly here — raises revenues that can be used to counteract the potential harms from high mitigation costs.
D. The question of whether a carbon tax can be designed in a way that reduces global emissions while also protecting the poor and achieving equity goals has considerable relevance for how society's decarbonization efforts unfold.
E. We find that a 2 °C target can be met while simultaneously increasing wellbeing, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty if each country or region imposes a substantial carbon tax and refunds the revenues to its citizens on an equal per capita basis (Fig. 1).

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that a 2 °C target can be met while simultaneously increasing wellbeing, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty if each country or region imposes a substantial carbon tax and refunds the revenues to its citizens on an equal per capita basis (Fig. 1). Furthermore, the benefits are often large, particularly for those at the lower end of the income distribution. ...

    Options:
    A. The overall benefits to society are even greater if total carbon tax revenues are returned on an equal per capita basis globally, which directs more of the revenues towards the poorest populations in the world (rather than the poorest within each country or region).
B. We also find that the optimal decarbonization trajectory is characterized by rapid reductions in emissions initially — which limits runaway climate change and allocates substantial revenues to the current poor — followed by a slower climb towards net zero emissions, which preserves some tax revenues for future generations.
C. Our results build on an extensive economics literature that focuses on single nations or regions.
D. To bring this literature together into a global analysis, we begin with a global cost-benefit climate policy model known as NICE (the nested inequalities climate-economy model), which divides the world into 12 regions and further divides each region into 5 income groups.
E. We find that if all countries adopt the necessary uniform global carbon tax and then return the revenues to their citizens on an equal per capita basis, it will be possible to meet a 2 °C target while also increasing wellbeing, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Our results build on an extensive economics literature that focuses on single nations or regions. To bring this literature together into a global analysis, we begin with a global cost-benefit climate policy model known as NICE (the nested inequalities climate-economy model), which divides the world into 12 regions and further divides each region into 5 income groups. ...

    Options:
    A. We then add a new component to the model — calibrated to the literature — that quantifies how both the costs of a carbon tax and the benefits from an equal per capita refund of the revenues impact different income groups in different nations.
B. We do this for a 2 °C scenario, as well as a scenario without a temperature constraint in which the model maximizes wellbeing through time via a uniform global carbon price.
C. We evaluate the benefits of the revenue redistribution in terms of improvements in wellbeing, changes to inequality and reductions in poverty.
D. One key challenge in identifying equitable climate policies is achieving aggressive mitigation without overburdening already disadvantaged populations, for example through increases in energy and food prices or job losses.
E. Some argue that these costs justify less dramatic emission reductions than those needed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature targets.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Climate change is expected to reduce crop yields and increase food prices globally, which will threaten the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goal 2 to end global hunger. Yet there are regional differences in climate change impacts, and international trade can be an important adaptation mechanism by connecting regions of food deficit with those of food surplus. ...

    Options:
    A. Even though climate and trade policy agendas have started to converge, the extent to which future climate change impacts should be considered in the development of international trade policies remains unclear.
B. Trade barriers such as import tariffs, export restrictions, limited infrastructure or inefficient customs procedures substantially limit agricultural trade flows and may affect the capacity of trade to mitigate climate change impacts.
C. Climate change adaptation may therefore need to be addressed by the full spectrum of the global trade policy agenda, from agreements on free trade to rules on trade restrictions.
D. Under current trade barriers, a pessimistic scenario of high global warming (+4 °C by 2100) with no benefits from enhanced atmospheric CO2 on crops could cause up to an additional 55 million people to be undernourished by 2050, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
E. If trade restrictions that prevent increased trading under climate change were imposed, the impact could increase to an additional 73 million people.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Under current trade barriers, a pessimistic scenario of high global warming (+4 °C by 2100) with no benefits from enhanced atmospheric CO2 on crops could cause up to an additional 55 million people to be undernourished by 2050, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. If trade restrictions that prevent increased trading under climate change were imposed, the impact could increase to an additional 73 million people. ...

    Options:
    A. Reduction in tariffs and improvements in trade infrastructure would limit the impact to an additional 20 million people.
B. For export-oriented regions, however, partial trade integration could lead to lower domestic food availability.
C. The findings show that trade policies clearly influence the sensitivity of hunger to climate change.
D. The study focuses on the impacts of trade and climate change on food availability and does not account for income effects, which determine people's access to food.
E. Furthermore, it does not investigate extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, which are likely to accentuate the importance of trade for adaptation.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    The analysis builds on an integrated framework of climate, crop and economic simulation models that assesses the long-term impact of climatic and socio-economic changes on global hunger. We develop a baseline at which global hunger is reduced by 2050 following population and income growth and reduced inequalities,and compare this with scenarios that vary in projected climate outcomes (from 2 °C to 4 °C global warming) and trade barriers. ...

    Options:
    A. The climate models estimate temperature and precipitation under alternative concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions, which the crop model translates into yield impacts.
B. The yield changes are incorporated into the economic model at detailed spatial scale to accurately represent biophysical effects, and we model the interaction of these with changes in import tariffs and other international trade costs.
C. Climate change is expected to reduce crop yields and increase food prices globally, which will threaten the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goal 2 to end global hunger.
D. Yet there are regional differences in climate change impacts, and international trade can be an important adaptation mechanism by connecting regions of food deficit with those of food surplus.
E. The global trade agenda should explicitly include climate change adaptation to achieve SDG 2 Zero Hunger.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Deforestation in the tropics has major effects on climate change and biodiversity loss. Furthermore, policies that limit deforestation are more cost effective than interventions to restore landscapes after conversion for agriculture or other uses. ...

    Options:
    A. Many strategies are available to reduce deforestation — creating protected areas, payments for ecosystem services, supply-chain agreements — all of which require that forests be monitored.
B. Until recently, annual deforestation maps released the following year often provided the best monitoring data available.
C. Deforestation rates are generally highest in countries with limited resources to create effective monitoring systems, so making low-cost technologies available may be an important way to support effective policies that aim to prevent deforestation.
D. Using weekly near-real-time deforestation alerts freely available via a platform unaffiliated with any governmental intervention and accessible from anywhere on the globe could have an impact on land-use trends and inform the design of more effective anti-deforestation strategies.
E. Use of the GLAD (global land analysis and discovery) alerts, through subscription to Global Forest Watch, decreased the probability of deforestation in Africa by 18% within the first two years relative to the average 2011-2016 levels.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Use of the GLAD (global land analysis and discovery) alerts, through subscription to Global Forest Watch, decreased the probability of deforestation in Africa by 18% within the first two years relative to the average 2011-2016 levels. The simple availability of the alerts did not significantly impact deforestation, and we found no effect on other continents. ...

    Options:
    A. Effects in Africa were driven by subscriptions within protected areas and logging concessions, which suggests that the alerts were used to fight illegal deforestation.
B. Using the social cost of carbon, we estimate the value of the alert system to be in the range of US$149-$696 million.
C. However, the benefits are probably greater since co-benefits such as biodiversity are not included and the effectiveness of using the alerts may be increasing over time.
D. Alert systems are likely to be effective in other regions as long as they provide earlier or more accessible reports of forest loss and policies designed to reduce deforestation are enforced.
E. We estimated the impact of GLAD alerts on deforestation across 22 tropical countries using data from 2011 to 2018.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We estimated the impact of GLAD alerts on deforestation across 22 tropical countries using data from 2011 to 2018. Figure 1 shows the African study region, its subscriptions and examples of GLAD alerts. ...

    Options:
    A. We used a random sample of 1 x 1 km grid cells from all countries that began receiving alerts prior to 2018.
B. We first examined whether having access to GLAD alerts decreased deforestation using the gradual rollout of the alert system.
C. Second, we studied whether using GLAD alerts via subscription changed deforestation rates.
D. In the first case, we used the country as the unit of analysis, and in the second, the grid-cell.
E. In both analyses, we estimated the impact by comparing trends in areas covered earlier with those covered later, controlling for time-invariant characteristics that influence deforestation, general macroeconomic events and weather, as well as for confounding variation from changes in transport or production technologies over time.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Devising effective responses to global warming requires policies that raise the price of carbon. However, as has been powerfully demonstrated by the Yellow Vests movement, costly climate action can provoke forceful public backlash. ...

    Options:
    A. A widely held conjecture is that, among the possible cost schedules, that is, the ways in which costs can be distributed over time, policies that gradually increase the price of carbon will minimize public opposition to climate action as compared with constant costs.
B. However, such claims lack empirical support.
C. Knowing which cost schedule — increasing or constant — is more appealing to the general public is crucial for policymakers interested in designing carbon price policies, based on cap-and-trade or tax, that promise to be effective and politically sustainable.
D. We find that the public has a clear preference for constant carbon pricing schedules.
E. Figure 1a shows that 58% of all respondents favour a constant cost schedule over increasing, decreasing and inverse-U-shaped allocations.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We find that the public has a clear preference for constant carbon pricing schedules. Figure 1a shows that 58% of all respondents favour a constant cost schedule over increasing, decreasing and inverse-U-shaped allocations. ...

    Options:
    A. We also note that only 12% support an increasing cost path that would gradually ramp up costs over time.
B. In addition, these preferences are surprisingly similar across countries (Fig. 1b).
C. When we randomly provide half of the respondents with cost schedules that specify the average costs associated with a plan to be low and another half with a high cost version of our question, we still find that most people prefer constant cost schedules (Fig. 1c,d).
D. Additional results that rely on a climate policy conjoint experiment that randomizes both cost schedules and cost levels confirm this finding.
E. Our study does not, however, rule out the possibility that low and stable cost plans may successfully introduce citizens to carbon pricing and build future support for higher carbon price plans in the long run.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We devised a survey that we conducted among representative samples of the adult populations (n = 10,075) of four major developed economies (France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). The survey included direct questions that were combined with experimental items. ...

    Options:
    A. The evidence presented here relies on a direct question item which, for the European portion of our survey, was combined with an experiment that randomized whether the average monthly household costs associated with a potential climate agreement were low (€28, €39 and £15) or high (€113, €154 and £60) in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, respectively.
B. We then presented respondents with four different ways of distributing the costs of implementing an international climate agreement over time: constant, decreasing, increasing and inverse-U-shaped (in randomized order).
C. We subsequently asked them to indicate which cost schedule they would select in a referendum given a certain average cost level.
D. Devising effective responses to global warming requires policies that raise the price of carbon.
E. However, as has been powerfully demonstrated by the Yellow Vests movement, costly climate action can provoke forceful public backlash.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    The policy problem Traditionally, assessment of the economics of climate policies has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as nationally uniform economy-wide carbon taxes. Yet over the last decade, actual policy experience has demonstrated that the reality is a lot more varied. ...

    Options:
    A. Although some national governments are firmly leading climate policy, in much of the world, states, cities and other sub-national actors are leading the way.
B. While uneven sub-national action is common, especially in large and politically diverse countries, little is known about its implications for costs.
C. This question is particularly important for the United States, which is the world's second largest emitter and which has some of the highest variability in the world for sub-national action: while about 20 states aim to achieve net-zero electricity or economy-wide emissions around the middle of the century, many others are doing little or nothing, and their political leadership faces little sustained public pressure to strengthen policy action.
D. As compared to an idealized nationally uniform policy, we find that varying the state-level policy stringency by a factor of three will increase the nationwide cost by only about 10%.
E. Such results are robust under different national decarbonization targets, formulations for policy heterogeneity, and technology assumptions.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    As compared to an idealized nationally uniform policy, we find that varying the state-level policy stringency by a factor of three will increase the nationwide cost by only about 10%. Such results are robust under different national decarbonization targets, formulations for policy heterogeneity, and technology assumptions. ...

    Options:
    A. The low cost hinges on two conditions.
B. First is the availability of critical technologies (for example, low-carbon electricity and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) and the ability to trade relevant energy products across state borders.
C. Second is that there is at least some effort by every state.
D. If a handful of states are not engaged at all, the leading states will need to adopt extremely expensive negative emissions technologies, which pushes up the nationwide cost.
E. These two conditions could be difficult to meet in the real world given the technological, regulatory and political realities.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    We employed a highly-detailed process-based integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) to examine the costs of state-driven climate action. GCAM-USA includes state-level representation of energy transformation and consumption sectors, as well as interactions between the economic, energy and land-use systems. ...

    Options:
    A. These detailed representations allowed us to identify critical sectors, technologies and processes that determine the cost of heterogeneous policy efforts.
B. Using this model, we examined the costs of 12 scenarios that vary across two dimensions: (1) national mitigation effort, measured according to four targets for cuts in national total greenhouse gas emissions, and (2) subnational policy approach, modelled as three degrees of heterogeneity in the stringency of state-level climate policy.
C. We used surveys of public opinion in each state as a proxy for cross-state variation in policy stringency (Fig. 1).
D. We further tested the effects of a wide range of alternative policy and technology assumptions on nationwide mitigation costs.
E. Traditionally, assessment of the economics of climate policies has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as nationally uniform economy-wide carbon taxes.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Design guidelines and best practices for urban stormwater-drainage infrastructure aim to ensure a certain level of protection against floods. In practice, however, these systems do not always meet their assumed performance expectations, and policymakers face uncertainty about causes. ...

    Options:
    A. This also raises doubts about the efficacy of future investments that aim to enhance the flood resilience of cities.
B. Current guidelines focus on understanding the performance of specific infrastructure elements — such as storm drains, culverts and pipelines — in isolation, rather than as part of a broader urban landscape.
C. Specifically, current guidelines fail to account for the complexity of flood 'connectivity': how flood flows can interact in subterranean pipelines, open channels, and over natural and human-made surfaces.
D. Despite substantial progress, models used for stormwater design remain too simplistic and unable to fully incorporate such interactions.
E. Thus, design scenarios overlook connected system elements and neglect the potential for flooding from sources outside of a localized area.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Starting with analysis of unexpected flooding in southeast Michigan, USA, in 2014, we find that human-engineered infrastructure can intro duce additional stormwater flow connectivity in urban environments that may increase flood risk (Fig. 1). Specifically, flooding may worsen where river channels are connected to underground infrastructure. ...

    Options:
    A. This has immediate implications for stormwater design, as differing assumptions about flood connectivity between river flooding and infrastructure can yield markedly different estimates of potential inundation.
B. The ubiquitous practice of ignoring this connectivity — assessing the performance of infrastructure elements in isolation and with overly simplistic rainfall scenarios — can lead to substantial errors, which result in reduced infrastructure effectiveness.
C. Paradoxi cally, design errors can reverse stormwater network functionality in the real world and lead, for instance, to flooding even in the absence of local rainfall.
D. Although this study illuminates broader challenges in stormwater network design and flood risk management, solutions will need to be tailored to the needs and unique characteristics of individual communities.
E. The historic 2014 storm resulted in severe flooding in southeast Michigan, USA. Our study focuses on an 8.8-km2 area in Warren city, which features a complex network of diverse drainage elements that include culverts, underground stormwater drains and outfalls; the latter provide hydraulic connection to open river channels.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    The historic 2014 storm resulted in severe flooding in southeast Michigan, USA. Our study focuses on an 8.8-km2 area in Warren city, which features a complex network of diverse drainage elements that include culverts, underground stormwater drains and outfalls; the latter provide hydraulic connection to open river channels. ...

    Options:
    A. To accurately model flood events, we gathered high-resolution data and conducted field surveys to validate these data.
B. Key experiments included simulations with and without local rainfall, as well as comparisons between 'integrated' outfalls (allowing flow reversals) and 'controlled' outfalls (assuming unrestricted discharge of stormwater into river channels).
C. These simulations explore how human-engineered infrastructure influences flood connectivity and flood severity in urban environments, and implications for current and future stormwater design practices.
D. Design guidelines and best practices for urban stormwater-drainage infrastructure aim to ensure a certain level of protection against floods.
E. In practice, however, these systems do not always meet their assumed performance expectations, and policymakers face uncertainty about causes.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Cities in the USA are taking an important role in the pursuit of climate justice, a movement that recognizes the inequitable effects of climate change for historically marginalized groups and advances justice through climate action. Although city governments are increasingly integrating justice into their climate goals and plans, many questions remain about how cities will be able to operationalize climate justice in practice. ...

    Options:
    A. Here, we examine how cities are implementing climate justice through a case study of BERDO, one of the first 'Building Performance Standards' in the USA.
B. Building Performance Standards are a growing building decarbonization policy approach across the country, and BERDO is one of the few programs of this kind that explicitly incorpo rates justice mandates.
C. In particular, BERDO includes the creation of the community-driven Review Board with substantial decision-making authority over the implementation of the program and the establish ment of the Equitable Emissions Investment Fund to support building decarbonization in environmental justice communities.
D. Our research demonstrates that climate justice has been a key com ponent of implementing BERDO.
E. Boston city officials sought to enact climate justice by elevating community voices (advocacy groups, com munity leaders and residents) in rulemaking processes, while main taining the buy-in of parties that are subject to BERDO (real estate developers, hospitals, universities and other building owners).

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A


Question:
You are given the start of a paragraph from a policy brief, ending in "...". Choose the most coherent continuation from the options below.

    Query:
    Our research demonstrates that climate justice has been a key com ponent of implementing BERDO. Boston city officials sought to enact climate justice by elevating community voices (advocacy groups, com munity leaders and residents) in rulemaking processes, while main taining the buy-in of parties that are subject to BERDO (real estate developers, hospitals, universities and other building owners). ...

    Options:
    A. In this process, multiple actors could contest and reinterpret the justice man dates embedded in BERDO (for example, what prioritizing benefits for environmental justice populations means, or who the review board should represent) (Fig. 1).
B. Different actors mobilized arguments about justice to advance their interests (for example, protecting tenants ver sus minimizing regulatory burdens) and ultimately shaped how BERDO has been operationalized on the ground, both in the planning process and the resulting implementation decisions.
C. This unique case study of the implementation of an equity-oriented policy revealed distinctive challenges in operationalizing climate justice, including scope and scale discrepancies, and the bureaucratization and weaponization of justice.
D. We investigated the first two years of the implementation of BERDO with a particular focus on rulemaking — that is, the process through which the City of Boston developed rules and regulations to imple ment and enforce BERDO.
E. We used a mixed-methods approach that combined five months of participant observation within Boston's Envi ronment Department, twenty interviews with city staff and community leaders involved in the implementation of BERDO, and a systematic content analysis of over 200 policy documents related to rulemaking.

Answer with the letter (A-E) corresponding to the best continuation. **Strictly follow this format—do not include any explanations or additional text.**

Answer: A