Fenareti Lampathaki

Yannis Charalabidis
email: yannisx@aegean.gr

David Osimo
email: david.osimo@tech4i2.com

Sotiris Koussouris

Stefano Armenia
email: armenia@cattid.uniroma1.it

Dimitris Askounis
email: askous@epu.ntua.gr

Paving the Way for Future Research in ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling

Keywords: ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling, Grand Challenges, Taxonomy, Research Areas, Model-based Governance, Government Service Utility, Data-powered collective intelligence and action

In light of the contemporary societal challenges and the current technological trends that have revolutionized collaboration and creativity, ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling has recently emerged to achieve a better, participative, evidence-based and timely governance. Bringing together two separate worlds, i.e. the mathematical and complex systems background of Policy Modelling with the service provision, participation and open data aspects in Governance, it has recently gathered significant attention by researchers and practitioners. This paper presents the grand challenges that will inspire research in the domain in the next years, as well as the track from the state of play study, the visionary scenarios building and the gap analysis that has eventually led to their recognition. The specific research challenges target at achieving a collaborative, model-based governance with a strong scientific basis, empowered with data in order to reach collective intelligence, and providing public services as a utility.

Introduction

Today the world has become increasingly interconnected, complex, and fast-evolving, with the effects of individual behaviour and of policy choices becoming much less predictable. In fact, unpredictability and complexity are two distinguishing characteristics of our society, as widely recognised in the literature about complexity science, chaos theories and non-linear systems. Highly improbable events [START_REF] Taleb | The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable[END_REF] and "wicked problems" [START_REF] Rittel | Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning[END_REF], which are outside the range of predictability based on past behaviour, dominate our lives as the recent financial crisis has proven.

The paradox is that at the same time, the amount of data available for making sense of the socio-economic environment is increasing exponentially, provided through sensors (such as Radio-frequency identification-RFID) and mobile devices, with the help of open government initiatives that have already started to emerge and release public data, or even in bottom-up ways through "crowdsourced" citizens' reports in Social Media. However, governments clearly still struggle to make sense of such large amounts of data and take appropriate action.

With government facing such new and complex problems that cannot be dealt with easily by direct public service provision, more ambitious policies will require more complex interventions and collaboration with non-governmental parties [START_REF]OECD: Modernising Government: the way forward[END_REF]. In this context, 'empowerment' seems to be the next great societal value in response to the massive increases in information, communication and wealth permeating society [START_REF] Broster | The Impact of Social Computing on the EU Information Society and Economy[END_REF], [START_REF] Osimo | Government 2.0 -Hype, Hope, or Reality[END_REF]. According to the new eGovernment Action Plan, by 2015 European public administrations should be "recognised for being open, flexible and collaborative in their relations with citizens and businesses" [START_REF]Ministerial Declaration on EGovernment[END_REF], [START_REF]The European eGovernment Action Plan 2011-2015 -Harnessing ICT to promote smart, sustainable & innovative Government[END_REF].

Along these ways of evolution, future scenarios in ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling are promising to reach the target of a better, participative, evidence-based and timely governance, while taming greater complexity and attracting citizens' involvement [START_REF] Botterman | Value for citizens-A vision of public governance in 2020[END_REF]. ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling has emerged as an umbrella term for a number of technologies that can be applied in order to achieve the common goal of improving public decision-making in the age of complexity [START_REF]Consultation report on ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling[END_REF]. They aim at making the policy-making cycle more effective and more intelligent, and at accelerating the learning path embedded in the policy cycle. In recent years we have assisted to a flourishing of ICT tools to support governments in designing policies [START_REF] Charalabidis | Report on the Objectives, Structure and Status of eParticipation Initiative Projects in the European Union[END_REF]. However, such tools are not often adopted successfully, also due to fragmentation between academic fields, application areas and approaches to innovation.

In this context, this paper presents the research roadmap related to the domain of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling, which was created within the CROSSROAD project [START_REF]CROSSROAD Project[END_REF]. CROSSROAD was a FP7 Support Action funded by the European Commission in order to identify and characterize the key research challenges in the domain and ultimately outline a concrete, participative roadmap for future research. Working with expert researchers and practitioners from across Europe, CROSSROAD has consolidated and advanced research in a new, yet highly fragmented, domain by adopting a consensus-driven approach based on collaboration.

The structure of this paper is as follows: Section 2 outlines the methodology followed during the implementation of the roadmap. Section 3 gives an overview of the evolutionary path and the main results that have led to the recognition of the set of the grand challenges. Section 4 finally presents the Grand Challenges, leading to conclusions with the trends and an insight to the benefits of the domain.

Methodology

In the direction of science and technology roadmapping [START_REF] Da Costa | Science and Technology Roadmapping for Policy Intelligence: Lessons for Future Projects[END_REF], the approach adopted and described in this paper from a high-level perspective adhered to the principles of [START_REF] Codagnone | Roadmapping eGovernment Research -Visions and Measures towards Innovative Governments in 2020, Results from the EC-funded Project eGovRTD2020[END_REF], Visual Analytics [START_REF]Mastering the Information Age: Solving Problems with Visual Analytics[END_REF], Personal Health Systems [START_REF] Codagnone | Reconstructing the Whole: Present and Future of Personal Health Systems Roadmapping Personal Health Systems: Scenarios and Research Themes for Framework[END_REF], Complex Systems [START_REF]Living Roadmap of Complex Systems[END_REF], the World Society Modeller [START_REF] Badii | World Society Modeller (S Gaia), FET Flagship Proposal within the FutureIcT stream[END_REF], the Internet of Things [START_REF] Vermesan | Internet of Things. Strategic Research Roadmap[END_REF] and Cloud Computing [START_REF]The Future of Cloud Computing, Opportunities for European Cloud Computing Beyond[END_REF].

Background

State of Play

The purpose of the State of the Art Analysis was to provide an overview of the state of the art in ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling in terms of research, practice / application, market and policy [START_REF] Lampathaki | State of the Art in "ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling[END_REF]. It covered research approaches, practical guidelines and strategic visions that have emerged upon studying the underlying research initiatives, projects, positions, strategies and implementations in a number of technologies which can be applied in order to achieve the target of the better, participative, evidence-based and timely governance.

With the help of a quantitative and qualitative methodology, a Research Areas Taxonomy has been formulated with the material collected and elaborated in the state of the art analysis in an effort to map and reach consensus on the diverse domain of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling [START_REF] Lampathaki | Defining a Research Areas Taxonomy around ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling[END_REF]. The taxonomy, which now consists of 5 Research Themes (RTs) as broad thematic categories that contain and classify a number of research areas at lower levels, has been discussed and validated by a large set of experts, as well as by relevant EU-funded projects in this domain.

The The Research Theme RT.2: Social Networks, Citizen Engagement and Inclusion infuses the social dimension of the web into Governance and Policy Modelling by investigating the Social Computing phenomenon that has already revolutionized the way people communicate, exchange content and knowledge, raise their opinions and influence each other, by exploiting engagement and eParticipation tools and techniques, and by extracting people's opinion from the web in order to reach collective wisdom.

The Research Theme RT.3: Policy Making, clearly positioned towards ICT-enabled policy making, initially analyzes the economical, social and environmental context as a preparatory stage for policy modelling which then actually represents the problem and its proposed solution. Policy Simulation testing out the various models in an effort to pre-evaluate the application of a specific policy, in a controlled, artificial environment is also studied, while at the last stage in the policy-making process, Policy Evaluation provides the necessary qualitative and quantitative assessment mechanisms to monitor the actual policy application.

The Research Theme RT.4: Identity Management and Trust in Governance is driven by the need to safeguard citizens' and public authorities' digital presence from misuse. In this context, identity management with federated identities, access control and authentication mechanisms in ubiquitous environments, as well as privacy and data protection have proved to contribute in building trust among citizens and public authorities.

The Research Theme RT.5: Future Internet for Collaborative Governance embraces the internet evolution and entails transparent and multichannel service provision via the Internet of Services, low cost cloud infrastructures emerging from Cloud Computing advancements, better human-computer interfaces and seamless interaction with non-conventional web devices that communicate in the Internet of Things.

Visionary Scenarios

The open-ended visionary scenarios developed for Digital Europe 2030 aimed at defining a set of scenarios on how governance and policy modelling, supported and enhanced by the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), could develop by 2030 in order to identify the research needs and policy challenges to be addressed [START_REF] Misuraca | Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling[END_REF]. The scenarios are internally consistent views of what the European governance and policy making system could become by 2030 and of what the resulting implications for citizens, business and public services would be. The uncertainties underlying the scenario design are: 1) the societal value system we will be living in (more inclusive, open and transparent or exclusive, fractured and restrictive), and 2) the response (partial or complete, proactive or reactive) to the acquisition and integration of policy intelligence techniques in support of data processing, modelling, visualization and simulation for evidence-based policy making.

A framework for the analysis of current and future challenges in ICT for governance and policy Modelling has been drawn. Accordingly, the key impact dimensions were classified on two axes: Openness and Transparency and Integrated Policy Intelligence [START_REF] Misuraca | Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenario design on ICT for governance and Policy Modelling[END_REF]. The following four scenarios were defined according to their positions on the two axes of the scenario design framework:

 Open governance: characterized by high openness and transparency and high integration in policy intelligence;  Leviathan governance: characterized by low openness and transparency and high integration in policy intelligence;  Privatised governance: characterized by low openness and transparency and low integration in policy intelligence;  Self-service governance: characterized by high openness and transparency and low integration in policy intelligence.

Gap Analysis

Gap analysis aimed at comparing the present status of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling presented in the state-of-the-art analysis and the future needs of ICT for Governance and Policy-Modelling depicted through the visionary scenarios. Taking into account that a gap expresses both mismatches between the state of play and the future scenarios, as well as lacks of current research identified in the scenarios [START_REF] Bicking | Concept to Integrate Open Collaboration in Technology Roadmapping: Stakeholder Involvement in Strategic E-Government Planning[END_REF], the gap analysis aimed at identifying specific gaps in the domain of Governance and Policy Modelling, i.e. the missing elements to realize the most desirable scenarios; and the elements of the current situation that could lead to the realization of the less desirable scenarios. The gap analysis collaborative process resulted in 42 gaps: 6 gaps within RT1, 9 gaps within RT2, 11 gaps -RT3, 7 gaps -RT4, 5 gaps -RT5 and 4 gaps stemming from visionary scenarios. All gaps were assessed regarding their relevance and impact on the main principles of Good Governance (openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness and coherence) [13], while a cross analysis of relations between and classifications of gaps was introduced in order to depict their interrelations.

CROSSROAD Grand Challenges

In order to provide strategic directions for the future of research in the domain of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling, consensus was reached through online and offline brainstorming and validation workshops on a limited number of Grand Challenges [START_REF][END_REF]. Such challenges present the following features: are understandable, visual and inspire research ideas; are bold and disruptive but strongly rooted in the State of the Art and addressable by 2020; contain significant critical mass of research; and address gaps across multiple Research Themes.

In particular, in order to grasp the opportunities that emerge from the current trends and to lead to a paradigm shift in policy-making, the following Grand Challenges have to be met:

 GC1 -Model-based collaborative governance: How to assist policy makers in taking evidence-based decisions in our complex, unpredictable world? Existing econometric models are unable to account for human behaviour and unexpected events. New policy modelling and simulation are fragmented, single-purposed and work at micro-level. There is a need for robust, intuitive, reusable collaborative modelling tools that can be integrated into daily decision-making processes.  GC2 -Data-powered collective intelligence and action: How can we make sure that increased transparency translates into actual more open and more effective policy-making? Current tools require high involvement and attention, therefore engaging only the very committed people. They are designed to facilitate conversations, rather than action. There is a clear need for more intuitive collaborative tools that are able to engage also less interested people, maximizing the impact of short attention span and lowengagement, as well as for ICT based feedback mechanism that are able to encourage real action and behavioural change.  GC3 -Government Service Utility: How to provide high-impact services to citizens, businesses and administrations in a way that allows for co-design, public-private collaboration, citizen interaction and service co-generation that allows for 1-stop, 1-second service delivery at very low cost and administrative burden and for completely new services, through mash-ups and interoperability-by-design?  GC4 -Scientific base of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling: How to make ICT-enabled governance a rigorous scientific domain, by providing formal methods and tools? The systematic classification of problems and solutions and description through formal languages, in an effort to make diagnosis and prescription of solutions a scientific process that will allow building on top of existing knowledge. These challenges can be depicted as three key pillars crowned by the fourth overarching challenge in the adapted 'stagist' model of the policy process [START_REF] Easton | A Framework for Policy Analysis[END_REF] and the management cycle, as illustrated in the figure below.

Model-based Governance

Our rapidly changing and complex society requires an efficient and effective decision-making process, able to anticipate future events, promptly detecting emergencies and evaluating the impact of different policy choices, reflecting the reallife complexity while making it simpler and addressable. The GC1 Model-based Collaborative Governance focuses on the development of advanced tools and methodologies in order to pursue the above-mentioned goals. It follows a vision of a radically different context for policy modelling and simulation, where standardisation and reusability of models and tools, system thinking and modelling applied to policy impact assessment has become pervasive throughout government activities. GC1 aims at enabling the engagement of all stakeholders (even without expert skills) in collaborative policy model building, simulation and evaluation process. This implies a great effort to improve state-of-the-art ICT tools and methodologies in order to guarantee the efficiency of policy modelling process. The improvements, in terms of usability and consequently time and cost consumption, the effectiveness of the process as well as in terms of reliability and knowledge of both models and policies should be introduced.

In this context, the research challenges that should be addressed with a long-term perspective include:  RC1.1: Integrated, composable and re-usable models to create more comprehensive and complex models by using smaller building blocks or existing objects/models. This implies both model interoperability and the definition/identification of proper modelling standards, procedures and methodologies.  RC1.2: Collaborative modelling encompassing participation of all stakeholders in the policy-making process through the implementation of Internet-based easy-to-use tools for all the levels of skills.

 RC1.3: Easy access to information and knowledge creation with a particular focus on elicitation of information which, in turn, during the overall model building and use processes will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately to gain insights and understanding in order to successfully implement a desired policy.  RC1.4: Model validation in order to guarantee the reliability of models and, consequently, of policies that are crucial for policy makers who need and use information that results from the simulations to develop more effective policies.  RC1.5: Interactive simulation concentrating on the fact that the larger is the model in terms of size and complexity, the larger is the resulting amount of data to analyse and visualize. In particular, this challenge refers to the issue of integration of visualisation techniques within an integrated simulation environment, in order to dramatically increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the modelling and simulation process, allowing the inclusion and automation of some phases (e.g. the output and feedback analysis) that were not managed in a structured way up to this point.  RC1.6: Output analysis and knowledge synthesis refers to output analysis of a policy model and, at the same time, to feedback analysis in order to incrementally increase and synthesise the knowledge of the model (and consequently of the policy).

Data-powered collective intelligence and action

The current citizen participation scene is characterised by an engagement of highly interested people only, and by an engagement that rarely stimulates genuine action. There are several complementary research areas in ICT for governance and policy modelling which have the opportunity to address the need for collaboration and behavioural change throughout different technological layers: enhanced data availability through public linked data and participatory sensing, analytical capability through opinion mining and visual analytics, and action-oriented tools such as simulation and serious gaming. These trends mutually reinforce each other to offer a new opportunity for future ICT for governance and policy modelling. The collaborative governance vision, proposed as an alternative, includes citizens in all the phases of the governance: in collecting relevant data through participatory sensing tools; in analysing the data through simulation and visualisation software; in acting upon these data through bottom-up self-organized action which accompanies, anticipates and stimulates government policies.

For this vision to become a reality, substantial research effort is needed in following research challenges:  RC2.1: Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-making refers to the use of sensors, usually embedded in personal devices such as smartphones allowing citizens to appropriately feed data of public interest.  RC2.2: Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data calls for simplification and lower costs of open data publication.

 RC2.3: Federated dynamic identity management addresses the eIdentityrelated issues for secure public service provision, citizen record management and law enforcement.  RC2.4 Peer-to-peer public opinion mining points out to the explosion of user-generated content, which widens the application scope of public opinion mining tools and to the fact that these tools need to become more pervasive and available to the majority of citizens.  RC2.5: Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-making refers to the research focused on making sense of large datasets, such as those provided as open government data.  RC2.6 User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public action underlines that serious gaming is still requiring high level of engagement and, therefore, progress in usability and attractiveness in order to widen the group of participants is needed.  RC2.7: New institutional design of collaborative governance recalls that collaborative governance is developing without an appropriate reference framework.

Government Service Utility

The dawn of a new era which highlights service creation and delivery as its principal ingredient has started to influence the public sector that now needs to drive public services towards Future Internet advancements. The Grand Challenge GC3-Government Service Utility has adopted the key concepts of a utility [START_REF] Rappa | The utility business model and the future of computing services[END_REF], such as Ubiquitous nature, Usability, Federation, Co-generation, and De-regulation, and is aligned to the philosophy of collaboration, openness and innovation. According to the our vision, it aims to cultivate "... a vision of the Internet of the Future, where public organisations, citizens, enterprises and non-profit organisations can collaboratively shape public services at design-time and runtime, in order to be delivered as a utilitylike offering at their own ends, to the channels they prefer and in the context and situation they are". In this context, the research challenges that should be addressed in the long-term perspective include:  RC3.1: User-driven innovation shaping Public Services during their whole lifecycle in order to be delivered to their beneficiaries at their own ends, in ways and means they prefer.  RC3.2: Change the DNA of Public Services in the direction of the 1-1-1 concept that supposes that «Every public service can be provided in onestop, within one second, with one euro (or minimum) cost, to any device and by anything».  RC3.3: Digital Public Services Value Proposition for All which defines and assesses the impact for all stakeholders within a complex public services ecosystem.  RC3.4: Massive Public Information as a Service promoting a serviceoriented attitude to the public sector information (PSI).

Science Base of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling

The general aim of GC4 is to establish the initial foundation of ICT for Governance Simulation Tools, that aim to bring together the technological and the societal aspects of the domain of ICT for governance and policy modelling towards more concrete, holistic and accurate decision support models.  RC4.3: Formal methods and tools, which aim at the setting the foundations for the new proposed scientific domain.

Conclusions

A paradigm shift in the nature and quality of policy-making is emerging based on three complementary disruptive techno-economic trends: the explosion in the quantity of data available; the proactive role assumed by citizens in contributing to the policymaking process, by authoring and elaborating the data increasingly made available; and the advanced capabilities, affordability and accuracy of simulation and modelling techniques. ICT tools have the potential to effectively support policy modelling and governance and their use is growing continuously even if they still remain a "novelty" for the majority of governments. The already acknowledged benefits for their use by governments lie on the quality and speed of policy making, as well as on the evidence-based policy decision making [START_REF][END_REF].

In order to outline future research directions in the domain of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling, the present paper has described a methodology that creates a shared vision, able to inspire collaborative and interdisciplinary research, and between academia, business, civil society and government. Upon studying the state of the art advancements in the domain, envisioning future, disruptive scenarios on how society will evolve in 2030 and analyzing the gaps, a set of concrete grand challenges that bundle together specific research challenges has been identified. The proposed grand challenges that have been validated by a large number of experts (in online workshops and face-to-face events) include the Model-based Governance (GC1), Data-powered collective intelligence and action (GC2), Government Service Utility (GC3) and Science Base of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling (GC4).

  Research Theme RT.1: Open Government Information & Intelligence for Transparency appears as the data-and knowledge-oriented research theme. It tries to incorporate next generation light-weight semantic technologies into the Governance and Policy Modelling context by promoting the principles of open data and PSI reuse, as well as the philosophy of linked data and visual analytics.

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. CROSSROAD Grand Challenges in the Policy Making Cycle

  openness, iteration, open ended, technology-focused but not technology driven, and beared the following steps:  State of Play providing an overview of the state of the art in ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling in terms of research, practice / application, market and policy. A Research Areas Taxonomy has been formulated with the material collected and elaborated in the state of the art analysis in an effort to map for the first time and reach consensus on the diverse domain of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling.

	 Visionary Scenarios "Digital Europe 2030" outlining a set of extreme
	visionary scenarios on how governance and policy modelling could develop
	at the horizon 2030. The scenario design was built on two axes (Openness
	and Transparency, and Integration in Policy Intelligence) that represent the
	way in which different future societal and policy directions may develop.  Gap Analysis assessing current developments in ICT for Governance and
	Policy Modelling and identifying the need for research and technology
	development (RTD) which is not yet in place through an analysis of the
	future scenarios.  Research Roadmap defining a set of Grand Challenges which are
	understandable, bold and disruptive but strongly rooted in the state of the art
	and addressable by 2020, while containing significant critical mass of
	research and inspiring specific Research Challenges. It has raised awareness
	and created a shared vision that inspires collaborative and interdisciplinary
	research between academia, business, civil society and government on new
	research directions in the domain of governance and policy modelling. It has
	been accompanied by concrete Policy Recommendations and mechanisms on
	how to define and implement research policy in a complex world.
	The proposed roadmap builds on relevant work undertaken in other roadmapping
	activities produced by other communities on specific application domains related to
	the ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling domain. Indicative studies that have
	been studied originate from eGovernment

  and Policy Modelling as a new science, complementing those of Informatics and Political Science, which is envisaged to benefit from all developments of the neighbouring field. It encompasses the following Research Challenges:  RC4.1: Multidisciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains, that investigates possible links with other scientific areas and attempts to structure the domain according to other successful domains.  RC4.2: Metrics and Assessment Models, Decision Support, Modelling &

Acknowledgments. This work has been created in the context of the EU-funded Support Action CROSSROAD (A Participative Roadmap for ICT Research in Electronic Governance and Policy Modelling), Contract No: FP7-ICT-248484. It has been also supported by the EU-funded project GIC -Greek Interoperability Centre (Contract No: FP7-204999).


Jörg Becker
email: becker@ercis.uni-muenster.de

Sara Hofmann
email: sara.hofmann@ercis.uni-muenster.de

Michael Räckers
email: michael.raeckers@ercis.uni-muenster.de

Coverage of eGovernment Security Issues in Mass Media

Keywords: eGovernment, mass media, media effect theory, IT risks

ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Introduction

The public administration has increasingly been providing its services in the internet for years. 'eGovernment' shall facilitate the administration processes. It promises advantages for both, the administration as well as the citizens. On the side of the public authorities cost savings should be achieved and media breaks are avoided leading to lean processes. The citizens on the other side shall benefit from a faster processing of their requests, a facilitated handing in of documents, availability of the administration twenty-four-seven, and the abolition of waiting time. Typical eGovernment systems are for example electronic population registers and voting machines. However, despite the advantages, citizens hardly use these offerings in the internet. According to a survey, only 6% actually make use of eGovernment services [START_REF] Schmidt | Bürger nutzen Verwaltung im Internet kaum[END_REF]. The decisive obstacles are security concerns.

Where does this objection come from? Are there certain prevailing reservations with regard to security issues and IT risks in eGovernment systems and if so how are they formed? There are several factors influencing the citizens' opinion on eGovernment. Besides personal experience also the public opinion, which is mainly published via mass media, plays a crucial role in creating trust or distrust towards these systems. In which way does this published opinion affect the citizens' attitudes? This link between the presentation of IT risks in eGovernment systems and the population's concerns has hardly been investigated. Therefore the present work contributes to close this gap by analysing how security issues of eGovernment systems are presented in the media and by deducing impacts this presentation could have on people's attitudes. The research question of the present work is:

How are IT risks of eGovernment systems presented in mass media?

In order to answer this question, different media are analysed according to certain criteria. Renowned media effect theories are applied to these findings in order to derive assumptions on how the public is influenced by the media coverage in IT risks in eGovernment systems.

The paper is organised as follows. In section 2 we give an overview of the current literature on risks in information systems and the most important media effect theories which describe the influence media consumption has on the recipients. Based on this theoretical background, in the following section we derive our hypotheses to be tested and present the material which will be analysed. Section 4 and 5 contain the presentation of our results as well as their interpretations. In the final section we will draw some conclusions and point out at further research to generalise our findings.

Related Work

Risks in Information Systems

Even within the domain of IT security there is no unambiguous definition of risk. Often the literature does not explicitly distinguish between threats and the damage they cause, which are two main components of risks. The third important constituent of a risk is the probability of a possibly occurring damage. With regard to the research conducted, here the risk of a threat is perceived as the probability of an occurrence of damage and the amount of damage that might be caused by the threat [START_REF] Boehm | Software Risk Management Principles and Practices[END_REF]. Threats describe ways in which vulnerabilities can be exploited to cause damage. They can, for instance, arise due to programming mistakes or due to the user's ignorance of security configurations which for example allows for attacks of Trojan horses or worms. However, nowadays most of the security gaps can be exploited remotely. In 2008, more than 75% of the newly discovered vulnerabilities could be taken advantage of from afar [3].

Damage occurs when one or more protection objectives are derogated. These objectives aim at protecting information respectively data. They include the restriction of data access (integrity and confidentiality) and the exclusive permit for authorised users to access them (authenticity). Furthermore, it needs to be assured that authorised users can use the desired data (availability). After having accessed or modified the data it is often necessary to relate these actions to the user who has executed them (auditability or non-repudiation) [START_REF] Eckert | IT-Sicherheit: Konzepte -Verfahren -Protokolle[END_REF].

The third constituent of a risk besides the threat and the damage caused is the probability of damage, i.e. the probability that a threat actually exists as well as the probability that this existing threat will cause harm. Both probabilities depend on several factors. First, the attacker's motives play an important role as they will influence the persistency; second factor is the sophistication of the attacks, third the vulnerability of the affected system largely codetermines the success of an attempted attack [START_REF] Fahramand | A Management Perspective on Risk of Security Threats to Information Systems[END_REF].

eGovernment systems can be regarded as a subgroup of general IT systems [START_REF] Heeks | Implementing and Managing eGovernment: An International Text[END_REF]. Besides the risks related to the damage of assets worthy of protection, Evangelidis et al. (2002) define four other main generic risk factors of eGovernment: technological/implementation, social/human, financial and legal risk factors. According to their understanding risk does not only mean the damage of the assets worthy of protection but comprises all elements that can lead to the failure of an eGovernment project. This might, for instance, also include the risk of the citizens' lacking acceptance of eGovernment systems due to privacy and security concerns.

Media Effect Theories

In order to draw conclusions in which way citizens are influenced by the coverage of IT risks in newspapers we resort to some of the most prominent media effect theories. However, the impact of media on the recipients' attitudes is discussed controversially. There is not one single theory but a multitude of explanation attempts. The assumptions of media effect on the recipient have changed in the course of time.

Nowadays media impact research is acknowledged as a complex, multi-factorial process which cannot be described generally but which has to distinguish sub-models.

The stimulus-response approach, which dates back to the 1920s, assumes that a media stimulus is fired at a defenceless individual and will exactly cause the effect that the sender intended [START_REF] Lasswell | The Theory of Political Propaganda[END_REF]. This rather simple explanation of media influence is based on the assumption that the sender is not subject to other influences which provide information contradictory to the received message. The stimulus-response approach is mainly popular because of its simplicity. However, in today's media research its assumptions are seen as too unrealistic. Nevertheless most of the further approaches use the stimulus-response theory in an alleviated form.

According to the two-step flow theory, which was developed in the 1940s, it is not the media which affect the recipients but other people in their social environment, the so called "opinion leaders" [START_REF] Lazarsfeld | The People's Choice[END_REF]. The impact of media depends on conditions that lie in the social context, i.e. beyond the media. However, it is remarked that in industrialised societies everyone is exposed to media and their influence and thus the distinction between opinion leaders who consume media communication and the rest of the society that does not is untenable. Despite this criticism the two-step flow model is rather popular even today.

A significant finding in the late 1950s and early 1960s was that mass media do not cause a change of attitudes but rather enforce already existing opinions. According to the theory of cognitive dissonance and selective exposure individuals tend to actively look for information which support their beliefs [START_REF] Festinger | Cognitive Consequences of Forced Compliance[END_REF]. Thus they will only consume those media offerings that accord with their opinion. This approach is nowadays mainly applied in advertising campaigns, which cannot motivate the consumers to buy products but can serve as retrospective legitimation of purchase decisions.

In 1970, the theory of the knowledge gap was developed, which stated that the knowledge communicated by media is used differently by different parts of the population. "[S]egments of the population with higher socioeconomic status tend to acquire this information at a faster rate than the lower status segments, so that the gap in knowledge between these segments tends to increase rather than decrease." [START_REF] Tichenor | Mass Media Flow and Differential Growth in Knowledge[END_REF] The effect is not caused by the medium itself but by a consumer's socio-economic status. The knowledge gap theory is nowadays often applied in connection with the proliferation of the internet, e.g. in the field of eInclusion [START_REF] Becker | Inclusive Electronic Public Service Delivery -A Quantitative Analysis[END_REF].

Shortly after the emergence of the knowledge gap model, the so called agenda setting approach was introduced. It does not deal with the question whether media influence what people think about certain topics but which topics they think about [START_REF] Merten | Grundlagen der Kommunikationswissenschaft[END_REF]. Accordingly, those topics that are ranked highly in media presentation are also regarded as important by the recipients. However, it is not clear whether certain topics are important for the recipients because media report on them or whether media merely pick up common topics in order to address the wishes of their target groups.

The assumption of the spiral of silence theory, which was set up in the 1970s, is that people are anxious to avoid social isolation [START_REF] Noelle-Neumann | Spiral of silence. A Theory of Public Opinion[END_REF]. Individuals observe their environment through their direct social context and indirectly via mass media. Whereas the former conveys to them which opinions cause isolation in public, mass media draw a picture of the assumed majority opinion. According to the spiral of silence theory, people tend to conceal their opinion when it differs from the assumed majority opinion due to the fear of social isolation. People who believe to represent the majority opinion, on the contrary, are likely to express their opinion openly. This behaviour will lead to a spiral in which finally the opinion assessed as dominant becomes the actually dominant opinion.

Even though the above mentioned media effect theories differ with regard to their conclusions they are all subject to the same arguments of criticism. First of all there is no general procedure how to 'measure' the effect of media. There is no scale to categorise attitudes or behaviour. A second point of criticism is that there are no longterm studies which analyse how media affect a recipient's attitudes. The conducted studies were all laboratory experiments creating an artificial situation. In addition the number of probands was very small so that no significant results were obtained.

Due to this plethora of media theories, which in parts proclaim complete opposites, it is difficult to draw substantiated conclusions. Media certainly have effects on their audience but can explain changes in attitudes and behaviour only to a certain extent. Media effects are just possible when the boundary conditions allow for them.

A further theory that has to be considered is the news value theory stating that to every event a certain news value is assigned, which represents its worthiness of publication. News values are derived from combining several characteristics like simplification and sensationalism. This means, for instance, that complex events are presented in a simplified way and that there are more reports on dramatic and scandalising events because they draw the readers' attention more intensely [START_REF] Östgaard | Factors influencing the flow of news[END_REF].

In the research conducted here the communication of IT risks of eGovernment systems in mass media was analysed based on the theoretical considerations addressed in the previous sections. eGovernment is a rather young application area of information systems. However, it affects the matters of all citizens. Especially the connection between the application of eGovernment systems and the population's concerns has hardly been investigated. The contribution of the present work is to close this gap by analysing how risks of eGovernment systems are presented in the media and by deducing impacts this media coverage could have on people's attitudes. The underlying research question is:

How are IT risks of eGovernment systems presented in mass media?

In the following this research question will be transformed into a catalogue of hypotheses, which were at first derived from the theoretical foundation presented in the previous sections and were later on complemented by a first review of the material to be analysed. We divided our hypotheses into the four categories triggers of articles, topics of articles, assessment of risks, and quality newspapers and tabloids. As it is difficult to obtain television or broadcast material ex post only print media were included in the investigation.

Triggers of articles:

As with most topics newspapers mainly deal with IT risks in eGovernment systems when there are events that 'trigger' the reporting. On the one hand, these triggers can be 'neutral' or 'positive' events as in the case of the introduction of a new eGovernment system. On the other hand, these events can be 'negative' as in the case of an attack on a system. According to the news value theory shocking events are more worthy of publication. Thus, it may be assumed that in newspaper articles IT risks in eGovernment systems are mainly linked to 'negative' events.

Hypothesis 1: Newspapers do not report on risks in eGovernment systems continuously over time but especially when specific negative events happen, i.e. for instance when attacks occur.

Topics of articles:

What are the topics of articles dealing with IT risks in eGovernment? Are there specific topics that newspapers put an emphasis on and are there in return certain topics that are neglected? According to the above mentioned news value theory it is likely that a negative event is the key issue of an article on IT risks. When describing IT risks is there a balanced description of disadvantages and advantages of eGovernment systems? Hypothesis 2: The key issues of articles dealing with risks in eGovernment systems are specific events of damage.

Hypothesis 3: In articles dealing with risks in eGovernment systems the advantages of such systems are neglected.

Assessment of risks:

How do newspapers assess IT risks in eGovernment systems? Is there a clear tendency in the assessment or does the assessment vary depending on the circumstances? Because of its very nature -eGovernment systems often deal with sensitive data of the entire population -it might be that risks are always judged as serious independently of the circumstances. This assessment could be emphasised by the use of polemic language and by a non-objective reporting.

Hypothesis 4: Risks in eGovernment systems are in most cases presented as high, i.e. either the probability or the amount of damage or both are judged as high.

Quality newspapers and tabloids:

In which way does the reporting in quality newspapers and tabloids differ? Tabloids are renowned for reducing events to entertaining elements, exaggerating and using colloquial polemic language [START_REF] Kopper | Medienhandbuch Deutschland: Fernsehen, Radio, Presse, Multimedia[END_REF]. Therefore it is likely that all assumptions of the hypotheses 1-4 hold even more strongly in tabloids.

Hypothesis 5:

In tabloids all criteria mentioned in the hypotheses 1-4 are intensified in contrast to quality newspapers.

The sampling units are issues of Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), and BILD; all of them are newspapers that are published in Germany. With 442,000 issues sold the Süddeutsche Zeitung is the nationwide newspaper with the highest circulation. Its political positioning is considered as liberal [START_REF] Wilke | Mediengeschichte der Bundesrepublik Deutschland[END_REF]. The second largest nationwide newspaper is the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung with about 365,000 issues sold daily. As its political positioning is regarded as rather conservative [START_REF] Meyn | Massenmedien in Deutschland[END_REF] the FAZ and the SZ represent opposite editorial directions and thus cover the spectrum of journalistic positioning concerning controversial topics. With a circulation of about 3.03 million issued sold daily and more than 12 million readers [START_REF] Kopper | Medienhandbuch Deutschland: Fernsehen, Radio, Presse, Multimedia[END_REF] the BILD is the most read newspaper in Germany. It reaches about 20% of the German population. It is characterised by emotional and selective reporting and offers a composition of facts, service elements (like weather forecast or television programme), sports and entertainment including sex and crime.

The investigated time period is 1 st January, 2008 to 31 st December, 2009. It did not seem logical to analyse material that dates back many years because eGovernment is a rather new development. Practical reasons for this time span were that the investigated media were fully available. The sample was determined in two steps: Firstly, all articles whose title or subtitle contained certain keywords as well as their truncated forms were chosen (the English translation of these keywords can be found in Table 1). These keywords were derived from theoretical considerations on IT risks and by scanning exemplary issues of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The Süddeutsche Zeitung and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung could be scanned electronically. The BILD had to be scanned manually. In the second step all the articles that were found were read and it was checked whether they dealt with IT risks in eGovernment even if just marginally. For analysing how newspapers report on eGovernment risks, we applied the content analysis to our sample. Content analysis is an empirical methods often used in social science in order to analyse both the manifest as well as the latent content of communication. Therefore categories are developed in which the material to be analysed is coded. For further information cf. [START_REF] Krippendorff | Content Analysis. An Introduction to Its Methodology[END_REF] and [START_REF] Neuendorf | The content analysis guidebook[END_REF].

Presentation of Results

For presenting the results of the research conducted we aggregated the outcomes of the coding phase. In the period from January 1 st , 2008, to December 31 st , 2009, altogether 79 articles were identified that specifically deal with IT risks in eGovernment systems. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published 31 articles (39.2 %), the Süddeutsche Zeitung 27 articles (34.2%) and the BILD 21 (26.6%).

Triggers of articles:

77 of the 79 articles, which are 97.5%, refer to a specific event that happened in that time. Only two articles did not refer to such an event. An event is regarded as negative if a protection objective is directly threatened or harmed. 42 (54.5%) of the current events the articles referred to could directly be classified as negative. In the remaining 35 articles (45.5%), which mentioned an event, this event was not immediately assessed as negative. Thus, this hypothesis cannot be verified at first sight. However, most of the non-negative incidents indirectly base on a negative event. The court decisions on voting machines, for instance, only took place as these machines were said to be insecure. Thus, when including these 'second-order' negative events, 72 articles, which is 93.5%, refer to negative events, and only five articles base on non-negative ones (these are articles that were triggered by upcoming or happened elections). Taking that perspective, hypothesis 1 can be considered as verified.

Topics of articles:

The key topics of the 79 articles, which mention IT risks in eGovernment systems, vary significantly (cf. Table 2). We identified 21 categories of main topics. The key issues of 47 of the 79 articles (59.5%) are specific events of damage like attacks on government websites, the loss and theft of computers or the exposure of sensitive data. The remaining 32 articles (40.5%) do not mainly deal with such specific events. Although the results are not unambiguous there is a clear tendency and hypothesis 2 can thus be verified. 42 of the articles contain a further sub-topic. When including these 'second-order' events of damage, 62 articles (78.5%) deal with specific incidents of damage and only 17 articles (21.5%) do not discuss such incidents in detail. Merely in 11 articles (13.9%) the advantages of the mentioned eGovernment system respectively the use of the discussed devices were mentioned. The ratio of the sentences which discuss these advantages and the sentences which address IT risks is 0.43 on average. This means the articles (and only those which mention advantages at all) discuss IT risks of eGovernment systems about 2.3 times more 'intensely' than their advantages. In addition the positive assessment of the mentioned advantages is generally weak. None of the advantages is characterised as 'high'. Four of the 11 articles describe the advantages in a way that can be characterised as 'medium', three see the advantages as 'low' and the remaining four articles present advantages without any comment or describe them in a way which neutralises any positive assessment. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that advantages of eGovernment systems do not play an important role in articles that mention IT risks in such systems. Therefore hypothesis 3 is verified.

Assessment of risks:

In 32 articles the probability of damage or the amount of damage (or both) are presented as high (40.5%). 18 articles (22.8%) assess them as medium, 6 articles (7.6%) present risks as low and the remaining 23 (29.1%) do not assess them or neutralise the assessment by counterarguments. Thus, there is a clear tendency to assess risks as elevated. However, the majority of articles do not present risks as particularly high. Therefore hypothesis 4 can be verified partly, but not without reservation. Even though not being the majority, 40% of the articles assessing risks as high still represent a considerable amount of articles.

Quality newspapers and tabloids:

For identifying differences between quality newspapers and tabloids, the results of hypotheses 1-4 were contrasted for both media types, i.e. on the hand the Süddeutsche Zeitung and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and on the other hand the BILD. Hypothesis 1 held for tabloids at least in the same way as for quality newspapers. The assumptions of hypotheses 2 and 3 were significantly intensified in tabloids. The statement of hypothesis 4 was not intensified in tabloids. However, in general, it can be said that tabloids intensify most of the hypotheses.

Interpretation

First of all, it is striking that newspapers report on IT risk and security issues in eGovernment systems relatively infrequently. Only 79 articles of three different newspapers deal with this topic within a period of two years. Thus, it can be concluded that this topic does not play a very important role for the citizens respectively the readers of the newspapers. When taking into account the agenda setting approach, which argues that the topics discussed in media determine the 'agenda' of the recipients, it can be concluded that IT risks in eGovernment systems are not a topic the recipients are strongly aware of. As people are not interested in the risks of eGovernment systems it is likely that they are not interested in eGovernment systems at all, which has also been proved by several surveys [START_REF] Schmidt | Bürger nutzen Verwaltung im Internet kaum[END_REF]. The low relevance of IT risks in eGovernment in the media is also reflected in the temporal distribution of the articles. Newspapers only publish articles when specific events happen. Thus, in general this topic is not discussed.

The underlying events of the articles are in most cases incidents which can be assessed as negative and if that is not the case they often have a negative context (e.g. the declaration of a data commissioner is based on the loss of sensitive data). In accordance with the stimulus-response model, which assumes a direct media effect, the readers of such articles are more likely to automatically link risks in eGovernment to negative incidents than in the case of continuous reporting on such IT risks or when discussing them in connection with non-negative events. Advantages, which would have moderated the negative presentation of eGovernment systems, are hardly mentioned in articles on IT risks. Thus, an objective reporting on this topic, which contrasts risks and advantages, does not take place.

A media effect theory which can give hints to the different effects of tabloids and quality newspapers on consumers is the knowledge gap hypothesis. It states that the levels of knowledge of higher educated and of lower educated parts of society will further differentiate as the former are able to process information more quickly and will therefore create new knowledge more easily. This effect could be further intensified by the different levels of detail in objective reporting on IT risks in eGovernment (or on any topic in general) of quality newspapers and tabloids. Quality newspapers, which mainly address people with a higher degree of education, inform about these IT risks and especially the threats or security issues in a more detailed and objective way than tabloids. Hence, the readers are offered more background knowledge. This broader information content increases the knowledge of readers of quality newspapers more strongly than readers of tabloids, which provide less information on the actual incidents. Hence, the knowledge gap between people with a higher degree of education and people with a lower one might increase due to the different styles of reporting.

Although it could not be verified that newspapers assess the IT risks of eGovernment systems as high, in most cases there is a clear tendency to do so. This is achieved by both explicit arguments and a polemic choice of words. If again a stimulus-response effect is assumed the recipients of newspapers will adopt the idea of eGovernment systems representing high risks. This might explain why such systems are not used.

It is striking that tabloids, which are known for their polemic communication, do not assess IT risks as especially negative. However, this might be due to the fact that there are many articles of the journalistic form 'news', which report in a short and objective way leaving out assessing expressions [START_REF] Weischenberg | Nachrichtenschreiben: Journalistische Praxis zum Studium und Selbststudium[END_REF]. Nevertheless, the mere mention of events without referring to possible consequences or explaining limitations of the amount of damage allows for readers' interpretations. This 'non-mentioning' of further details can therefore create more negative associations from the readers' point of view than a more detailed reporting would have done. Again, the neglected coverage on IT risks in eGovernment systems shows the low importance that is assigned to this topic by the BILD and -according to the agenda setting approachalso by its readers. Apparently, IT risks in eGovernment systems do not possess a high news value as they are hardly included in people's personal experiences and therefore remain vague and abstract.

Moreover, as mentioned above, the most decisive obstacle for citizens to use eGovernment applications are security concerns. If a generally existing fear concerning data security and privacy is assumed, the cognitive dissonance respectively selective exposure hypothesis would imply that these citizens would consume those articles which confirm their opinion and even intensify it. Another aspect of the cognitive dissonance and selective exposure theory explains that people try to get their actions confirmed by consuming those messages that attest them a right behaviour. It is likely that this is the case with IT risks in mass media, too. When people do not want to use eGovernment systems because of security concerns and they later on read about incidents in these systems they will get confirmed that it was sensible not to use them.

Another theory leading to a negative attitude towards eGovernment systems due to the media coverage of IT risks is the spiral of silence. As media report on IT risks in eGovernment systems rather negatively, a dismissive attitude towards eGovernment systems will be assumed to be prevailing. Critics of eGovernment systems might further contribute to this negative attitude whereas supporters of such systems might fear to express their opinion openly. Therefore, the negative attitude towards eGovernment systems might finally become the prevailing one.

Conclusions and Further Research

In conclusion, it can be stated that the presentation of IT risks in eGovernment does not play a very important role in media coverage -but for users of eGoverment-Services, i.e. the citizens [START_REF] Akkaya | The Role of Trust in E-Government Adoption: A Literature Review[END_REF]. If, however, newspapers present this topic they will assess it in a rather negative way. This is achieved -not necessarily intentionally -by discussing IT risks in eGovernment systems mostly when negative incidents occur. Furthermore, the key issues of such articles are in most cases a negative event. Advantages of the discussed systems are rarely mentioned and in the cases they are, they are assessed as rather marginal. However, this is limited to the scope of the investigation, mass media in Germany.

Generally, all media effect theories assert that the negative reporting on IT risks in eGovernment has an impact on the audience. However, according to the assumed media effect model these impacts vary significantly. In accordance with the stimulusresponse model the recipients of such negative reporting are directly influenced and also form a negative attitude towards eGovernment systems. Less drastic influences are, for instance, suggested by the cognitive dissonance or selective exposure theory, which merely assume the fortification of already existing attitudes. This approach asserts furthermore that citizens who did not use eGovernment applications get confirmed that they decided correctly when later on reading articles on IT risks in eGovernment systems. The spiral of silence approach states that the opinion which is assumed to be prevailing -in this case a negative attitude as communicated by the media -will also become the actual dominant opinion. Another point of view is taken by the knowledge gap hypothesis, which assumes that due to the differing levels of detail in media which address people with a higher degree of education on the one side and media addressing people with a lower degree of education on the other side, the discrepancy of knowledge between these two social groups is intensified.

However, the conclusions presented here are only assumptions which were derived from applying media effect theories to the findings of the analysed material. Therefore, the next step would be to check these assumptions empirically. This could be achieved by carrying out an experiment where the actual effect of different newspaper articles on the readers is investigated or by an enquiry. These results could, for instance, be used for public administrations promoting eGovernment systems more effectively. In order to analyse a broader data base and to generalise our findings, it would be sensible to extend our research to IT systems in general and not to limit ourselves to eGovernment systems. Another aspect arising for further research is the change of the coverage of IT-Risks through the use of social media and social networking sites like Facebook and others. This definetly will have an effect on the cosume of news and stories and actually additionally leads to a change in the mass media landscape. Both effects of change have to be investigated in the future.

Table 1 .

 1 Keywords used in article research.

	administration	criminal	hacker	net	spy out
	attack	damage	hardware	non-repudiation	state
	authentication	danger	information	online	threat
	authorisation	data	integrity	password	Trojan
	availability	denial	internet	PC	virus
	brute force	eavesdropping	IT	phishing	voting
	buffer	Elster (electronic	key logger	risk	weakness
	computer	tax revenue portal) LAN	social engineering web
	confidentiality	government	malfunction	software	worm

Table 2 .

 2 Distribution of the ten most frequent key issues.

	Frequency	Key issue	Specific event
			of damage
	10	Reflections on (un)constitutionality of voting machines	No
	9	Attack on government website/computer	Yes
	8	Loss of sensitive data/computers/peripheral devices/other self-	Yes
		inflicted mishaps
	6	Theft of computers from authorities	Yes
	5	Attack on enterprise (website/server/computer) or NGO	Yes
	4	Exposure of sensitive data	Yes
	4	Attack on/theft of military data	Yes
	4	Cyberwar	No
	4	Malfunction of eGovernment software/hardware	Yes
	4	Functionality of voting machines	No
	21	Other


Maria Ek Styvén
email: maria.styven@ltu.se

Åsa Wallström
email: asa.wallstrom@ltu.se

Anne Engström
email: anne.engstrom@ltu.se

Esmail Salehi-Sangari

"IT's Complicated…": Influence of Perceived Sacrifice and Trust on eService Adoption

Keywords: e-government, intention to use, trust, perceived sacrifice, optimism bias

des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Introduction

During the last two decades, governments have invested heavily in developing electronic government (e-government). Today, it is viewed as an important way to provide better services to citizens and make public administration more efficient [START_REF]From e-Government to Connected Governance (United Nations publication No. ST/ESA/PAD/SER.E/112[END_REF]. However, this great potential only can be realized if citizens are willing and able to adopt the e-services offered by the government. For many years, e-government has been developed based on governments' internal needs, rather than from the perspective of users' needs and wants [START_REF] Kunstelj | Analysing the Demand Side of E-Government: What Can We Learn From Slovenian Users?[END_REF]. The assumption was that citizens were waiting for e-services to be developed and all that was needed was more rapid development of such services [START_REF] Kunstelj | Analysing the Demand Side of E-Government: What Can We Learn From Slovenian Users?[END_REF]. Yet, the acceptance and usage of available eservices has not been as extensive as expected [START_REF] Hung | Determinants of user acceptance of the e-Government services: The case of online tax filing and payment system[END_REF].

In order to increase usage of e-government services, there is a need for better understanding of factors driving citizens' use of such services [START_REF] Kolsaker | Citizens' attitudes towards e-government and e-governance: a UK study[END_REF]. Previous research has identified lack of trust as a major barrier for the adoption of e-services [START_REF] Carter | E-government adoption: A cultural comparison[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Trust in E-Commerce: consideration of interface design factors[END_REF]. For e-commerce in general, several studies have explored the relationship between trust and behavior, but with respect to e-government adoption, researchers are just beginning to empirically investigate the role of trust [e.g., [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Teo | Trust and Electronic Government Success: An Empirical Study[END_REF]. In order to add to the understanding of trust as a salient predictor of consumer behavior, and in response to calls for further research [e.g., [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Verdegem | User-centered E-Government in practice: A comprehensive model for measuring user satisfaction[END_REF], this study proposes a model of e-service adoption that incorporates trust, perceived sacrifice, and optimism bias.

According to the theory of planned behavior, the intention to engage in a particular behavior is a good predictor of performing the behavior [START_REF] Ajzen | The Theory of Planned Behavior[END_REF]. Intention to use subsequently has been found to be highly correlated with actual use of information technology [e.g., [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Pavlou | Consumer Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Integrating Trust and Risk with the Technology Acceptance Model[END_REF]. To be able to include non-users as well as current users, thus making results more generalizable, this study applies intention to use government eservices as the dependent variable. Hence, the following research problem is addressed: How do trust, perceived sacrifice, and optimism bias influence citizens' intentions to use public e-services?

The remainder of this paper proceeds as follows: Section two presents the theoretical foundations of the proposed research model and the hypotheses. The methodology of the study is described in section three, which is followed by a presentation and discussion of the results. Finally, conclusions are drawn and limitations of the study are discussed, along with suggestions for further research.

Conceptual Background and Hypotheses

Trust

Trust has been explored and defined in numerous research studies within different areas. A widely used definition of trust is "an expectancy that the promise of an individual or group can be relied upon" [START_REF] Rotter | Generalized expectations for interpersonal trust[END_REF]. As trust reduces behavioral uncertainty, it gives the citizen a perception of having some control over potentially uncertain situations [START_REF] Pavlou | Consumer Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Integrating Trust and Risk with the Technology Acceptance Model[END_REF]. McKnight et al. [START_REF] Mcknight | Developing and Validating Trust Measures for e-Commerce: An Integrative Typology[END_REF] pointed to the importance of distinguishing among different types of trust, and developed multi-dimensional trust measures. Other authors have adapted these measures and used them in diverse contexts, including egovernment. For governmental web sites and e-services, trust has been conceptualized as consisting of trust in the Internet as the facilitating technology for e-government (also referred to as institutional trust), and trust in the government as the provider of the service [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF][START_REF] Teo | Trust and Electronic Government Success: An Empirical Study[END_REF]. In addition, research suggests that a person's general propensity to trust others; i.e., his/her disposition to trust, is important as it can affect behavioral intentions via its influence on trust in the Internet and government [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Mcknight | Developing and Validating Trust Measures for e-Commerce: An Integrative Typology[END_REF]. We therefore expect that: H 1 : Disposition to trust is positively related to trust in the Internet H 2 : Disposition to trust is positively related to trust in the government If citizens trust the service provider (i.e., government), they also might be more inclined to trust the medium through which the service is delivered. Though not hypothesized, Bélanger and Carter's [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF] study showed a very high correlation between trust in the government and trust in the Internet. Similarly, Teo et al. [START_REF] Teo | Trust and Electronic Government Success: An Empirical Study[END_REF] as well as Horst et al. [START_REF] Horst | Perceived usefulness, personal experiences, risk perception and trust as determinants of adoption of e-government services in The Netherlands[END_REF] found that trust in the government had a significant positive correlation with trust in an e-government website. Hence, we hypothesize: H 3 : Trust in the government is positively related to trust in the Internet Moreover, a number of studies have found that trust influences behavioral intentions such as the intention to use, or continue using, an e-service. The relationship has been tested as a direct link [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Chang | Literature derived reference models for the adoption of online shopping[END_REF][START_REF] Lean | Factors influencing intention to use e-government services among citizens in Malaysia[END_REF][START_REF] Pavlou | Consumer Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Integrating Trust and Risk with the Technology Acceptance Model[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF], as well as indirectly, via for example perceived risk [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF], attitude [START_REF] Hung | Determinants of user acceptance of the e-Government services: The case of online tax filing and payment system[END_REF], and e-service quality [START_REF] Teo | Trust and Electronic Government Success: An Empirical Study[END_REF]. Considering the emphasis on trust in institutions and technology as a precondition for e-commerce and e-government acceptance [e.g., [START_REF] Mcknight | Developing and Validating Trust Measures for e-Commerce: An Integrative Typology[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF], the following hypotheses are stated:

H 4 : Trust in the government is positively related to intention to use H 5 : Trust in the Internet is positively related to intention to use

Optimism Bias

Trust in the Internet has been shown to reduce the perceived risk of using e-commerce and e-government services [e.g., [START_REF] Chang | Literature derived reference models for the adoption of online shopping[END_REF][START_REF] Pavlou | Consumer Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Integrating Trust and Risk with the Technology Acceptance Model[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF]. However, some studies suggest that even when citizens perceive high levels of risk, they still are willing to use e-services [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Chang | Literature derived reference models for the adoption of online shopping[END_REF]. This behavior might be explained by optimism bias, which is "a systematic discrepancy between individuals' risk perceptions and their actual risk for negative life events" [START_REF] Campbell | Unrealistic optimism in internet events[END_REF]. That is, people tend to think that because of their knowledge and ability, they are less susceptible to risk than the average person [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF]. For example, Campbell et al. [START_REF] Campbell | Unrealistic optimism in internet events[END_REF] found that heavy Internet users were significantly more optimistic than light Internet users about positive and negative Internet events. In the context of e-government, it seems likely that a higher level of trust in the Internet as a facilitating technology could enhance the degree to which citizens feel that they are more competent than the average Internet user [cf. [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF]. Thus: H 6 : Trust in the Internet is positively related to optimism bias In addition, research has found that optimism bias significantly increases the intention to use government e-services, presumably because it diminishes the impact of risk [START_REF] Carter | Antecedents to e-File Adoption: The U.S. Perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF]. These authors therefore point to optimism bias as an important factor in e-government adoption and call for further research on its influence. Consequently, it is hypothesized that: H 7 : Optimism bias is positively related to intention to use

Perceived Sacrifice

As indicated above, several studies in the information systems area have integrated constructs of perceived risk, primarily in terms of privacy and security, in models of trust. Within marketing and consumer behavior research, however, negative influences on purchase or usage intentions sometimes also are conceptualized in terms of perceived sacrifice, consisting of the total monetary and non-monetary costs associated with acquiring the product or service [e.g., 9, 16, 28]. While monetary costs (e.g., purchase price) usually are not relevant in the context of e-government services, it can be argued that non-monetary sacrifice, such as the perceived time and effort involved, could work as a barrier toward e-service adoption. That is, if citizens expect that using e-services will be time-consuming and complicated, they are more likely to choose traditional means of receiving the service.

Based on in-depth interviews with taxpayers, Rotchanakitumnuai [START_REF] Rotchanakitumnuai | Measuring e-government service value with the E-GOVSQUAL-RISK model[END_REF] suggested that time and effort would not influence intention to use online tax filing for frequent Internet users. However, the relationship has not been tested empirically on a larger sample including both users and non-users of public e-services. In other contexts, perceived non-monetary sacrifice has been shown to negatively affect behavioral intentions [e.g., [START_REF] Baker | The Influence of Multiple Store Environment Cues on Perceived Merchandise Value and Patronage Intentions[END_REF][START_REF] Kleijnen | An assessment of value creation in mobile service delivery and the moderating role of time consciousness[END_REF]. Therefore, we expect that: H 8 : Perceived sacrifice is negatively related to intention to use Further, as trust reduces uncertainty [START_REF] Pavlou | Consumer Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Integrating Trust and Risk with the Technology Acceptance Model[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF], it is possible that trust in the Internet channel contributes to decreasing perceptions of e-services as time-consuming and complicated to use. This notion is mirrored in Pavlou's [START_REF] Pavlou | Consumer Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Integrating Trust and Risk with the Technology Acceptance Model[END_REF] study, in which trust had a significant, positive influence on perceived ease of use. We therefore hypothesize that trust in the Internet would have a significant, negative influence on perceived sacrifice. Formally stated:

H 9 : Trust in the Internet is negatively related to perceived sacrifice Finally, it seems probable that citizens who feel that they are more competent than the average Internet user would anticipate lower levels of time and effort involved in using an e-service. Specifically, optimism bias, which we conceptualize in the same way as Carter et al. [START_REF] Carter | Antecedents to e-File Adoption: The U.S. Perspective[END_REF], Schaupp and Carter [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF], and Schaupp et al. [START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF], is expected to reduce the perceived sacrifice. Hence: H 10 : Optimism bias is negatively related to perceived sacrifice Figure 1 displays graphically the proposed research model incorporating the ten stated hypotheses and the relationships among the constructs.

Data Collection

To measure the studied constructs, we developed a questionnaire derived primarily from previous literature (see Appendix A). A few items were added based on results from eight focus group interviews with citizens. Seven-point Likert-type scales indicating the strength of agreement with statements were used for all constructs, except optimism bias, for which we used a seven-point scale anchored by 1 (much less able than the average Internet user), 4 (average ability), and 7 (much more able than the average Internet user) [cf. [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF]. Questions covering background information such as demographics and Internet use also were included in the instrument. "E-service" was described in the beginning of the questionnaire as making applications, as well as changes or supplements to applications, via the municipality's web site. It also was emphasized that no previous experience of such eservices or the municipality's web site was needed to be able to answer the questions.

After pre-test on a small sample of citizens, followed by some adjustments, questionnaires were sent via regular mail to 1,600 randomly selected Swedish citizens between 20 and 64 years of age. We obtained a total of 422 valid responses, corresponding to an effective response rate of 26.4%. Assuming that late respondents are similar to those who do not respond, non-response bias was checked by comparing demographics and Internet use variables between the first and last quartile of responses [cf. 2]. T-tests and Chi-square tests did not result in any significant differences between early and late respondents, indicating that non-response bias was not a main concern.

Gender distribution among respondents was fairly even, with 56% being males. The mean and median age of the sample was 44 and 42 years, respectively. 88% of the respondents were working (i.e., employed or owners of businesses), with the remaining respondents being students, retirees or unemployed. Half of the respondents had a university education, and 92% of the sample indicated that they used the Internet daily. On average, respondents considered themselves to be experienced Internet users -on a seven-point scale representing strength of agreement with the statement "I am an experienced Internet user", the mean was 5.75. A vast majority of the sample (86%) indicated that they generally visit the municipality's web site at least once in a while, but most of them rather infrequently (less than once/month). This means that 14% of the respondents said they never visit the municipality's web site.

Results

Measurement Validation

Overall, there were few missing values in the dataset, and all variables could be retained. Little's MCAR test was non-significant (p = 0.32), indicating that data were missing at random. Since we wanted to test the hypotheses through structural equation modeling, which does not comply with missing data, the few remaining missing values in quantitative variables were replaced by series mean.

To evaluate and refine the scales, we performed a confirmatory factor analysis using AMOS 18 software. Modification indices and standardized residual covariances pointed to possible problems with two items; one in the trust in government construct and one in optimism bias. These items therefore were removed one by one, which improved model fit. The final measurement model had a normed χ2 value of 2.24, GFI .94, CFI .97, and RMSEA .05, suggesting good fit between the model and data. Descriptive statistics of the resulting factors are shown in Table 1 below. It can be noted that the means of all three trust dimensions are fairly high, whereas the average level of perceived sacrifice is low. The mean of the optimism bias construct is almost exactly the same as in the study by Schaupp and colleagues, where it was 4.83 [START_REF] Carter | Antecedents to e-File Adoption: The U.S. Perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF]. A one-sample t-test showed that the mean of the optimism bias measure is significantly higher (t = 13.25) than the scale midpoint, which corresponds to "average ability". This suggests that respondents overall rate themselves as more Internet savvy than the average Internet user. Next, discriminant and convergent validity among constructs were assessed by examining whether (1) all standardized factor loadings were significant and higher than .50; (2) the squared correlations between each pair of constructs were less than the variance extracted for each construct; and (3) the average variance extracted for each construct was higher than .50 [START_REF] Fornell | Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error[END_REF][START_REF] Hair | Multivariate Data Analysis: A Global Perspective[END_REF]. Table 2 displays the average variance extracted (diagonal values) and the squared correlations between constructs (offdiagonal values). Since all constructs met the stated criteria, they were considered to show sufficient validity. Further, the reliability of the constructs was assessed. As Table 3 shows, Cronbach's alphas were well above the suggested cutoff point of .70 and all item-tototal correlations exceeded .50 [cf. 13]. In particular, the degree to which citizens expect the use of municipal e-services to be complicated and time-consuming (i.e., the perceived sacrifice) appears to hamper usage intentions. Considering that some earlier studies have found non-significant (see [START_REF] Chang | Literature derived reference models for the adoption of online shopping[END_REF] for a summary) or even positive [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF] correlations between perceived risk and intention to use, it is possible that the expected hassle involved is a better predictor of behavioral intentions than risk, at least in a context in which the majority are frequent Internet users.

Regarding the influence of optimism bias, the result is similar to previous findings [START_REF] Carter | Antecedents to e-File Adoption: The U.S. Perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF][START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF], but the effects of trust differs from the studies of Schaupp and Carter [START_REF] Schaupp | The impact of trust, risk and optimism bias on E-file adoption[END_REF] and Schaupp et al. [START_REF] Schaupp | E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers' intentions[END_REF], in which trust in the Internet did not have a significant correlation with the intention to use e-government services. This perhaps could be explained by the fact that the results in those two papers were based on a student sample, while a broader, random sample of citizens was used in this study.

Trust in the Internet is strongly correlated with optimism bias (H 6 ), explaining 23% of the variance in the construct, and it also decreases perceived sacrifice, as suggested in H 9 . In addition, feeling more competent than the average Internet user appears to lower the degree to which one expects using e-services to be cumbersome (H 10 ).

Conclusions

This study integrated three dimensions of trust, optimism bias, and perceived sacrifice in a model to explain Swedish citizens' intentions to use municipal e-services. While the model confirms the influence of trust and optimism bias, the results also suggest that perceived sacrifice in terms of time and effort can be a strong predictor of behavioral intentions. That is, as people in general use the Internet frequently, they become more familiar with possible privacy risks and feel that they can handle them, but if they expect that using an e-service will be time-consuming and complicated, they would rather use traditional means of receiving the service. Hence, municipalities and other government agencies should focus on offering as easy-to-use e-services as possible, and also inform citizens about these services and how they can be used.

Moreover, municipalities could integrate trust building in their market communications. Enhanced trust in the government as a service provider and, primarily, trust in the Internet as the facilitating technology for e-government contribute to higher intentions to use, and also indirectly by increasing optimism bias and decreasing perceived sacrifice.

Limitations and Suggestions for Further Research

Although the results in this study are based on a random sample of citizens of varying ages and backgrounds, there are some limitations that should be considered when interpreting the results. First, while the tests for non-response bias did not reveal any significant differences between early and late respondents, the fact that almost 74% did not respond means that generalization to the population should be made with some caution. Still, the response rate of 26.4% is well in line with, or above, similar studies that have used postal surveys. Our sample size of 422 also is relatively large compared to many other user studies in the e-government area.

Second, the use of a cross-sectional survey means that we cannot ascertain causal relationships between constructs in the model. Therefore, additional longitudinal or experimental research is warranted.

Our model was tested in the context of Swedish municipal e-services. While citizens' adoption of e-government in municipalities is relatively under-researched compared to e-government on a national level, it could be worthwhile to study whether this model also applies on other levels and in other countries.

The inclusion of perceived sacrifice in a model of trust and e-government adoption shows promising results. To keep the model parsimonious, we used a unidimensional, three-item measure of perceived non-monetary sacrifice. Future research could address the influence of sacrifice using more comprehensive scales. If there are governmental e-services that involve some kind of economic transaction, it also would be interesting to include a monetary sacrifice construct in the model.

Finally, it is possible that some of the relationships among the studied constructs can vary between different groups of citizens. Further studies can explore moderating variables; for example, users vs. non-users of e-government services, younger vs. older citizens, or frequent Internet users vs. non-or low Internet users.

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. Research Model

Table 1 .

 1 Descriptive Statistics

	Construct	Min.	Max.	Mean	Std. Dev.
	Disposition to Trust	1.00	7.00	5.35	1.06
	Trust in Internet	1.00	7.00	5.04	1.31
	Trust in Government	1.00	7.00	4.89	1.30
	Optimism Bias	1.00	7.00	4.81	1.25
	Perceived Sacrifice	1.00	7.00	2.22	1.26
	Intention to Use	1.00	7.00	5.45	1.57

Table 2 .

 2 Correlation Matrix

	Construc	Disposi-	Trust in	Trust in	Optimism	Perceived	Intention
	t	tion to	Internet	Govern-	Bias (OB)	Sacrifice	to Use
		Trust	(TiI)	ment		(PS)	(ItU)
		(DtT)		(TiG)
	DtT	.70
	TiI	.10	.77
	TiG	.11	.13	.74
	OB	.01	.24	.02	.78
	PS	.01	.18	.04	.17	.69
	ItU	.04	.32	.09	.26	.37	.67

Table 3 .

 3 Construct Reliability

	Construct	No. of Items	Cronbach's α	Item-to-Total
				Correlation

Hypotheses Tests

To test the stated hypotheses, we specified a structural model in AMOS 18 according to the research model (see Figure 1). Table 4 below summarizes the results. As the table shows, model fit indexes suggest that the structural model is not disconfirmed by the data, and all ten hypotheses receive empirical support. Altogether, the model explains a fairly high portion (53%) of the variance in the intention to use municipal e-services.

The relationships among the three trust constructs (H 1 -H 3 ) work as expected. Disposition to trust appears to be more strongly connected to trust in the government than to trust in the Internet. However, the correlation between trust in the government (TiG) and intention to use (ItU) is low (albeit significant at p<.05), thus lending only weak support to H 4 . Even though the mean of the trust in government measure was very similar to previous research conducted in the US (this study: 4.89, [START_REF] Bélanger | Trust and risk in e-government adoption[END_REF]