Gerli Aavik
email: aavikgerli@gmail.com

Robert Krimmer
email: robert.krimmer@ttu.ee

Integrating Digital Migrants: Solutions for Cross-border Identification from E-residency to eIDAS. A Case Study from Estonia

Keywords: e-government, case study, cross-border e-services

The electronic identification and trust service regulation (eIDAS) was adopted in 2014 to create a digital common market in the European Union (EU). As the world is becoming more and more digital, countries need to develop ways to integrate digital migrants. While the EU does not currently have a digital common market, several EU countries already have working systems for crossborder digital cooperation. The principal focus of this article was to address whether eIDAS can be implemented in these countries, without challenging the local initiatives. The Estonian e-government system (EES) was chosen as an exemplary case. Here we analyzed whether the eIDAS complements or challenges the national e-government initiatives, such as Estonia's e-residency project, and whether it is in the interest of member states to contribute to the fast implementation of the eIDAS as the most effective measure for achieving crossborder use of e-services. To address these questions, a content, context and process (CCP) analysis framework was used. Based on our findings, we concluded that, although the eIDAS creates some additional obligations, the regulation supports national e-government goals and domestic cross-border initiatives. Also, without supranational interference, it is highly unlikely that digital open borders could be created among 28 member states. Thus, it is in the interest of the member states to contribute to a fast implementation of the eIDAS.

Introduction

The mobility of European Union (EU) citizens and open borders have created an increasing need for a secure and digital common market. To guarantee the four basic freedoms of the EU, digital services will be required. Since 1999, the digital services of EU member states have been derived from a common legal framework 1 , however, in reality the digital identities of the citizens of other member states have not been acknowledged. As the world is becoming more and more digital, countries need to develop ways to integrate digital migrants 2 . Thus, the electronic identification and trust service regulation (eIDAS) was adopted in July 2014 and a framework to develop the digital common market in the EU was created. [START_REF]Impact Assessment Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Electronic Identification and Trust Services for Electronic T ransactions in the Internal Market[END_REF] Although the eIDAS could provide digital services across the EU, alternative systems also exist. Various EU countries have different initiatives aimed at decreasing digital fragmentation, so it is important to evaluate how the eIDAS c ould be implemented in a way that is compatible with local initiatives. Estonia has been a pioneer in cross-border cooperation [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF], being a source for cross -border electronic initiatives such as SignWise, the e-residency and bilateral cross -border mutual recognition agreements 3 . In December 2015, Estonia's e-residency program celebrated its first birthday by 3-fold exceeding its initial annual goal, having enrolled 7,000 members from 119 countries. Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas called the program "a pioneering move to open up our efficient digital services to anyone in the world" [START_REF]e-Residency Celebrated Its First Birthday[END_REF].

Here we investigate whether the EIDAS supports or undermines national measures, using the Estonian case as an example. The following research questions will be answered:

 Do the changes introduced by the eIDAS complement or challenge the domestic goals and e-government initiatives of Member States?  Should Member States contribute to the fast implementation of the eIDAS as the most effective measure for achieving cross -border use of e-services?

To answer these questions, the key aspects of the EES, local cross -border initiatives and the eIDAS are mapped and the compatibility of the eIDAS with an existing egovernment systems (ES) is evaluated. In addition to giving insight to the compatibility of the eIDAS with the local initiative, the article also aims to strengthen the theoretical knowledge with a new case study.

2

Theoretical Framework: Context, Content and Process (CCP)

Information systems (IS) are essential part of e-governing and IS theories are often used for evaluating ES and e-services. Trends in public administration are forcing governments to reengineer the administration processes and to set higher requirements on accountability of ICT-based systems [START_REF] Bernroider | A Comprehensive Framework Approach Using Content, Context Process Views to Combine Methods from Operations Research for IT Assessments[END_REF]. Systems theory, organizational rationalism, social theory of structuration and critical theory are the most commonly employed theories in IS research [START_REF] Avgerou | Information Systems: What Sort of Science is it?[END_REF]. Although these theories and frameworks offer a variety of analysis options, because e-government analyses encompass multiple spheres of research, a more complex, multi-faceted approach is needed [START_REF] Hardy | Assembling e-Government Research Designs: A T ransdisciplinary View and Interactive[END_REF]. CCP analysis creates linkages between context, content and process and enables the researcher to ask questions both from the perspective of technology and people engaged [START_REF] Stockdale | An Interpretive Approach to Evaluating Information Systems: A Content, Context, Process framework[END_REF], ensuring 2 For us (in contrast to definitions such as by Prensky [START_REF] Prensky | Digital natives, digital immigrants part 1[END_REF])we mean citizens with no legal residence in the country, but wanting to engage digitally with its public services. 3 The concepts of SignWise, e-residency and bilateral cross -border agreements are introduced in 4.2. that important variables are not overlooked [START_REF] Self | Organisational Change Content, Process, and Context: A Simultaneous Analysis of Employee Reactions[END_REF]. CCP analysis is used in different research areas, such as education [START_REF] Begler | Wheels and Straw: Balancing Content, Process, and Context in Global Teacher Education[END_REF], psychology and psychotherapy [START_REF] Vaughan | T ranspersonal Psychoterapy: Context, Content and Process[END_REF], biology [START_REF] Primm | Making Sense of the Policy Process for Carnivore Conservation[END_REF] and management [START_REF] Ketchen | Process, Content and Context: Synergistic Effects on Organisational Performance[END_REF], but was first introduced in IS research by Symons [START_REF] Symons | A review of information systems evaluation: content, context and process[END_REF]. The CCP framework offers a high level of structure [START_REF] Stockdale | An Interpretive Approach to Evaluating Information Systems: A Content, Context, Process framework[END_REF], by breaking processes into a number of elementspurpose (why), subject (what), timeframe (when), methodologies (how) and people (who)thus allowing the researcher to recognize a wide scope of interrelated factors [START_REF] Song | Research on IT/IS Evaluation: A 25 Year Review[END_REF]. This also allows the researcher to ask the correct questions and explore a wide range of influences, by inherently including social, political, cultural and economic factors [START_REF] Stockdale | An Interpretive Approach to Evaluating Information Systems: A Content, Context, Process framework[END_REF].

Here, the CCP framework is used to assess whether it is in the interests of EU member states with existing e-government systems (e.g., the EES) to contribute to the fast implementation of eIDAS. CCP framefork allows to evaluate changes through measures such as effectiveness, efficiency and understanding of the context [START_REF] Miller | Strategic Process and Content as Mediators Between Organisational Context and Structure[END_REF], making it possible to assess whether the changes are compatible with the contexts they are implemented in. To assess the compatibility of the EES and eIDAS, the contextual dimensions introduced by Heeks [START_REF] Heeks | E-Government as a Carrier of Context[END_REF] are used. The principal arguments of CCP framework are that changes are most likely to be accepted when the core values of organizations are not impacted [START_REF] Devos | Contribution of Content, Context, and Process to Understaning Openness to Organisational Change: Two Experimental Simulation Studies[END_REF], there are little or no substantial mismatches between contextual dimensions [START_REF] Heeks | E-Government as a Carrier of Context[END_REF], acceptance among stakeholder is gained, there is thorough communication [START_REF] Self | Organisational Change Content, Process, and Context: A Simultaneous Analysis of Employee Reactions[END_REF] and the timing is right [START_REF] Ongaro | Explaining Contextual Influences on the Dynamics of Public Management Reforms: Reflections on Some Ways Forward[END_REF]. The focus of the article is empirical, so the theoretical framework is not elaborated in more detail. The main purpose of the framework is to determine how to structure and analyse the data [START_REF] Yin | Applications of Case Study Research[END_REF].

Methodology

To analyze the compatibility of the eIDAS in an existing e-government system, we applied a deductive approach, moving from a general theory to an explorative single case study [START_REF] Yin | Case Study Research. Design and Methods[END_REF]. Qualitative research design was used to analyze linkages between causally relevant factors and map causal paths in a given situation [START_REF] Mahoney | A T ale of T wo Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research[END_REF]. Although case studies can involve multiple cases, here we focus on the EES as the center of a single case analysis. Case studies focus on understanding the dynamics within a single setting [START_REF] Eisenhardt | Building T heories from Case Study Research[END_REF], while also creating a basis for generalization of these results [START_REF] Flyvbjerg | Five Misunderestandings About Case-Study Research[END_REF]. Although it can be argued that generalizability is limited when using a single case study, using a single case design highlights the contrast between case studies and clear statistical analyses [START_REF] Mariotto | What Is the Use of a Single-Case Study in Management Research?[END_REF]. Here, CCP analysis was used, including key aspects of the observed case, creating clear causal paths and explaining how the conclusions were reached.

It was important to ensure that key causal relationships would not be missed [START_REF] Mahoney | A T ale of T wo Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research[END_REF] and expert interviews had a substantial impact to prevent that [START_REF] Rubin | Chapter 9: Topical Interviewing[END_REF]. In addition to the legal documents, reports, impact analys es, written expert opinions, notes fro m presentations, news and academic articles, six semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with leading experts from the Estonian e-government department. As the network of the EES is small and integrated, these six interviewees represent the main stakeholder viewpoints from the Estonian governmental sector, the private sector and e-government critics. The case of the EES is introduced in the following sections.

Case Study: The Estonian E-government System (EES)

As Estonia has a working ES with remarkably high usage, the Estonian case was chosen for analysis [START_REF] Reinsalu | Is Estonian Local e-Government Responsive to Citizens' Needs? T he Case Study of T artu[END_REF]. For a small state, Estonia has managed to create a remarkab le image of an e-state [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. In strong cooperation with the private sector [START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF], the principal idea has been to create a single system that could be used for all e-services, enabling the creation of low cost usable e-services. The X-road solution 4 , electronic ID cards 5 and data protection acts are seen as the solid building blocks of the system [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. It is important to note that the innovative services and the image of an e -state do not hold a high value in itself, unless it is visible to citizens and the services needed by citizens are actually delivered. Services such as an e-tax office and e-banking have significantly improved the convenience of Estonian citizens [START_REF] Reinsalu | Is Estonian Local e-Government Responsive to Citizens' Needs? T he Case Study of T artu[END_REF], and are used on a daily bases. According to the 2014 UN e-government survey, Estonia is ranked 15th in the list of world e-government leaders and 8th among European countries, being one of the 25 countries ranked as having a very-high-EGDI 6 . Estonia is also among the top 20 countries in online service delivery, being one of the six European countries in that list, and among the top 25 performers in e-participation [START_REF]E-Government Survey[END_REF].

The eIDAS regulation as the content of change

The content dimension allows researchers to see the substance of a planned change [START_REF] Ketchen | Process, Content and Context: Synergistic Effects on Organisational Performance[END_REF]. Here, the eIDAS is considered as that content. The current e-Signature Directive [START_REF] Ep | [END_REF] has been in use for over 15 years. As the directive has substantial gaps, such as undefined obligations for the national supervision of service providers, and legal and technical cross-border interoperability issues [START_REF]European Interoperability Framework for European Public Services[END_REF], a new framework was needed and, after thorough discussions , new regulations were adopted. The new legislative solution was proposed in 2012 and adopted in 2014 [START_REF] Parliament | [END_REF]. The European Commission has conducted Large scale pilots (LSP) in the past, such as STORK, E-CODEX, SPOCS and E-SENS, with the aim to test the interoperability and the legality of this new framework [START_REF] Galler | Proposal for a Regulation on Electronic Identification and Trust Ser-vices for Electronic T ransactions in the Internal Market (eIDAS)[END_REF]. Based on the previously held discussions and conducted pilot projects, new regulations were introduced to develop mutual recognition of electronic identification, cross-border electronic trust services and cross -border electronic documents [START_REF] Servida | IAS Study 2 -Stakeholders Workshop[END_REF]. Some of the main ideas introduced with the eIDAS include: enhancing trust in electronic transactions by providing a common foundation for secure crossborder electronic actions; providing key enablers across borders (such as electronic IDs, documents, signatures and delivery services ); creating public key infrastructure at pan-European level; identifying different assurance levels to characterize the degree of confidence of a party being identified; and establishing a general legal framework for the use of trust services. It is important to emphasize that the regulation is technologyneutral and does not seek to interfere with the electronic ID management systems and related infrastructures, which are established in member states [START_REF] Parliament | [END_REF].

EES as the content that is changed. Possibilities for cross -border digital cooperation

Estonia is unquestionably a pioneer of e-services [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Based on the EES, four possible models for cross -border cooperation can be described, which are introduced in following sections. The first option (Figure 1) is forming bilateral agreements between member states to cooperate digitally across national An example here would be the cooperation agreement between the tax offices of Finland an d Estonia [31], which began in 2013 with the first digitally signed intergovernmental contract [START_REF]Estonian PM and Finnish PM Signed the World's First Digitally Signed International Agreement[END_REF]. The Estonian e-residency project, which enables non-residents to access the same electronic benefits as the residents of Estonia, can be seen as the second option (Figure 2). Estonian aimed to be the first country to start issuing e-residency, as it was believed that the accessibility of digital services should not be depend ent on the person's residency or citizenship. With digital residency, new e-residents (both from the EU and outside) receive a digital ID with a smart card identical to an Estonian electronic ID certificate, which can be used in the digital environment to identify a person and give digital signatures, using the same software as citizens do with their ID-cards [START_REF]Mitteresidentide digitaalse isikutunnistuse väljaandmine: e-residentsuse loomine. Kontseptsioon. Isikut tõendavate dokumentide seaduse ja riigilõivuseaduse muutmise seaduse eelnõu seletuskirja lisa 1[END_REF]. The third option is offering cross-border services through a neutral nongovernmental body (Figure 3). This has been done by a private sector initiative, SignWise, which is a cloud-based digital identification service, enabling people and businesses to digitally sign documents across borders by providing trusted and secure cross-border infrastructure for authentication and validation [START_REF] Signwise | About SignWise[END_REF].

Figure 3: Enabling people and companies to digitally sign documents across borders by providing secure infrastructure.

The fourth option is a supranational framework (Figure 4) where, based on a principle of subsidiarity, transnational interference is seen as the most effective and efficient solution. The example here is the eIDAS, which aims to create a system of mutual recognition of M ember States' national identification systems, by creating a comprehensive legal framework for both the electronic identification and authentication services [START_REF] Stibbe | T he New Regulation on Electronic Identification and Trust Services -eIDAS[END_REF].

Figure 4: Supranational framework where member states recognize each other's digital IDs.

4.3

The context surrounding the change processes E-government applications are often seen as isolated technical artefacts, but it is important to understand that their contents are always used in certain contexts [START_REF] Heeks | E-Government as a Carrier of Context[END_REF]. In the following sections, the reasons behind the adoption of new regulation and the involved stakeholders are analyzed through the questions why and who.

Stakeholders. In the case of Estonia, a small circle of people deal directly with IS in the EES. The EES is built on a bottom-up system, with each minister being responsible for the ICT system and e-services of their field. Ministers consult public and private sector stakeholders, and based on the collected information, proposals are then presented at the national central level. [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF] As the eIDAS requirements are set by the EU, the bottom-up system cannot be applied and the responsible network here is formed by the Ministry of Interior, the Estonian Information System Authority, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications and the Certification Centre [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Also, close cooperation with the private sector needs to be emphasized: electronic identity was developed clearly on the initiative of banks and telecommunication companies [START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Kirsipuu | Interview on 2015-04-20[END_REF] certification services are provided solely by the private-owned SC, and most ICT services are bought in from the private sector [START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF].

As the networks are rather small, personal opinions and characteristics of individuals have been very important. Ideologies are often carried on from one individual to another, forming a symbiosis between personal opinions and organizational views [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. (I6) From early on, there were pioneers who wanted to develop cross -border ecooperation, which meant that when the discussions about the eIDAS started, the question was not whether to do it, but how [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Charismatic leadership can be helpful for supporting a clear vision and mission, but critics [START_REF] Vaarik | Eesti kui Rajaleidja[END_REF][START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF] bring out that this can also lead to people following ideas blindly, as they do not actually understand the technical part of these solutions. Thus, the more extensive involvement of ICT people and critics could be beneficial [START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF].

Reasons for the new regulation and for accepting or repulsing the change. When adopting and implementing changes, it should be made clear why these changes are needed in the given contexts and why are they accepted or repulsed [START_REF] Mahmood | Effect of Organisational Maturity on End-Users' Satisfaction with Information Systems[END_REF]. IS serves a purpose to simplify the work, enabling organizations to work better [START_REF] Symons | A review of information systems evaluation: content, context and process[END_REF]. In the public services, IS are used to provide for citizens faster, more conveniently and to reduce costs [START_REF] Miyata | Measuring Impacts of e-Government Support in Least Developed Countries: Case Study of the Vehicle Registration Service in Bhutan[END_REF]. In the Estonian case, efficiency has been the core driver of adopting IS [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. Estonia has had paperless decision-making in the government cabinet since 2000, and most of the public sector services are available digitally [START_REF]E-Cabinet[END_REF]. Using digital signatures domestically has helped save 2% of GDP and governmental stakeholders believe that this number could be higher once digital IDs are acknowledged throughout the EU [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. Although Estonia does already have a cross-border digital initiative, this does not necessarily mean that the eIDAS would be seen as a competing concept. It is clear that the Estonian initiatives could not create open borders within the 28 Member States and a two-speed Europe would not be the most desirable option. eIDAS sets the minimal requirements for cooperation but does not limit greater cooperation between strategically important counterparts [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. Also, aligning after European principles could significantly strengthen the EES, as there are stronger requirements on secu rity, privacy, openness and data protection at the EU level [START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF]. Thus, the question in Estonia regarding the development of cross-border e-services has not been whether to do it, rather how best to do it [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Categorizing contextual dimensions. Contextual divisions (information, technology, processes, objectives and values, staffing and skills, management and structures and other resources) introduced by Heeks [START_REF] Heeks | E-Government as a Carrier of Context[END_REF] are used here to map and compare the EES and requirements introduced with the eIDAS. These divisions enable better comprehension of the scope of changes for the EES.

As mentioned before, the goals of the eIDAS coincide with the objectives and values of Estonian digital policies [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF], thus, although some additional obligations are surely created for the EES [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF], there are no substantial mismatches in the objectives and values. Regarding the technology and processes dimensions, some changes are needed. As the eIDAS aims to be technology-neutral [START_REF] Parliament | [END_REF] and Estonia participated in the pilot project STORK, it is believed that existing Estonian technical solutions and processes would not require significant change [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. However, it should be noted that the current systems were created and secured for the internal market and, when the number of users multiples, these systems would need to be rebuilt accordingly. Some auditing functions would also be required to strengthen the e-governing process [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. At the same time, these development would also support the local cross -border initiatives [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF], and critics hope that implementing the eIDAS would motivate further strengthening of the technical content [START_REF] Vaarik | Eesti kui Rajaleidja[END_REF].

More substantial changes would be needed in the divisions of information, staffing and skills and management systems and structures. The eIDAS sets several new requirements for data exchange, such as exchanging information about supervision activities and best practice [START_REF] Parliament | [END_REF]. Also, requirements are set on the preservation of information for electronic signatures and seals [START_REF] Parliament | [END_REF] and EU privacy measures are more strict [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF]. As Estonia is a small state, the lack of specific resources is seen as a significant barrier [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. The main issue here is having too few people, but the technical and legal competencies of the existing people would also need to be developed to fulfil the eIDAS requirements [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF][START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF]. The lack of resources also influences the division of management systems and structures. While the EES is flexible and receptive towards change [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF], the resources are lacking and the mental willingness might be insufficient [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Implementing eIDAS certainly creates additional tasks and financial obligations [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF], but the key issue here is in the effective use of resources [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Also, the EU provides financial support, which should ameliorate resources insufficiencies [START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF].

Process of change and factors of timing

For the EES, it was clear that the directive was not working [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF] and most stakeholders agreed that in order to develop cross -border cooperation, a new regulation was needed [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. It is believed that Estonia has had more influence on the European digital policies than it would be assumed based on the size of the country [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. The same is considered true in the chance process for the EES, where Estonia managed to defend its interests well while the content of regulation was worked out. The goal was that the change in Estonian domestic systems would be minimal [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. If more had to be changed, the resistance against the eIDAS due to large investment needs would likely have been greater [START_REF] Kirsipuu | Interview on 2015-04-20[END_REF]. It has been an Estonian ambition to achieve cross -border identification measures and cross-border e-services as fast as possible, but it is clear that comprehensive changes, such as digital open borders, do not happen instantly. It is believed that the timing of the eIDAS has been good [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Korjus | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Implementation of the eIDAS and the e-residency project are happening simultaneously, which makes it is easier for Estonia to use its resources reasonably [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. Simultaneous processes also create a better platform for communication, especially since the stakeholders in Estonia overlap greatly [START_REF] Korjus | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. At the same time, it should be remembered that the older the systems become, the more difficult it will be to implement changes [START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF]. Thus, had the eIDAS been implemented earlier, there would likely have been greater flexibility [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF].

Another important aspect of the change process is communication, often determining the end result [START_REF] Stockdale | An Interpretive Approach to Evaluating Information Systems: A Content, Context, Process framework[END_REF]. As the majority of people do not understand the technical processes behind electronic services and digital identification means, trust is essential, as are communication and branding [START_REF] Vaarik | Eesti kui Rajaleidja[END_REF]. In the case of the EES, branding has been mainly been targeted outwards, to create a global e-state image [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. Although a lack of domestic communication has drawn criticism [START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF], the wider communication is planned for the period of implementation [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. The influence of the communication of the change process cannot be evaluated at this point.

Discussion

By analyzing the Estonian case, we aimed to answer two research questions: 1) whether the changes introduced by the eIDAS are complementary to or challenge the domestic goals and e-government initiatives of Member States ; and 2) whether Member States should contribute to the fast implementation of the eIDAS, as the most effective measure for achieving cross -border use of e-services [START_REF] Pollitt | Public Management Reform: Reliable Knowledge and International Experience[END_REF]. The CCP framework was used here to map and analyze the key aspects of the chosen case. In the following sections, the research questions are answered based on the theoretical framework and empirical findings.

Do the changes introduced by the eIDAS complement or challenges the domestic goals and e-government initiatives of Member States?

The CCP framework allowed us to analyze, based on the EES, whether the eIDAS complements or challenges the existing e-government solutions. It is important to note that the content of change influences the attitudes towards the change, meaning that when the core of the system is not affected, there is less resistance [START_REF] Devos | Contribution of Content, Context, and Process to Understaning Openness to Organisational Change: Two Experimental Simulation Studies[END_REF]. Also, mismatches between contextual features can cause extensive instability [START_REF] Pollitt | Public Management Reform: Reliable Knowledge and International Experience[END_REF], so that comparing contextual dimensions is often key to evaluations of compatibility. If the contexts do not match, contents should be changed [START_REF] Heeks | E-Government as a Carrier of Context[END_REF]. However, in this case, the content under observation is directly applicable. This means that any mismatches not negotiated in the development phase, will require domestic systems (contents) to be changed later. In the case of the EES, most of the identified mismatches were minor. Although there were more requirements for substantial change in the divisions of information, staffing, skills, management systems and structures , we expect that when the necessity of these changes is accepted [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF][START_REF] Põder | Interview on 2015-04-15[END_REF], major resistance will be unlikely .

The second aspect under investigation was the compatibility of the eIDAS with the domestic e-government initiatives. The Estonian case shows that the eIDAS can be compatible with local initiatives . However, it should be noted that resources can be scarce (especially within a small state context), making it important to prioritize. In the Estonian case, the changes introduced by the eIDAS also supported the domestic needs and goals (e.g., the development of e-residency) [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. Thus, it can be reasoned that, although the eIDAS was enforced to fulfil wider goals of the EU, by creating an open system, it also supports the development of local initiatives [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. As the content does not conflict significantly with the EES, local initiatives can be developed simultaneously with the eIDAS.

5.2

Should Member States contribute to the fast implementation of the eIDAS as the most effective measure for achieving cross -border use of e-services?

As Directive 99/93/EC has proved to have substantial gaps, the eIDAS was introduced to develop secure mutual recognition of cross -border electronic identification, electronic trust services and electronic documents [START_REF] Servida | IAS Study 2 -Stakeholders Workshop[END_REF]. Developing cross-border eservices should be in the interest of Member States . However, it should be evaluated whether Member States should contribute to the fast development of the eIDAS as the most effective solution. In the Estonian public sector, efficiency is a priority and digital solutions are seen as a way to achieve it. On the domestic level, around 2% of GDP has been saved due to the use of digital signatures. It is predicted that, if digital IDs were acknowledged across borders, yet further improvements in efficiency could be made [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF]. It is clear that none of the domestic solutions have so far managed to create a common digital market, so the eIDAS can certainly support efficiency by doing so.

In any successful change, maximum output should be achieved with minimum input [START_REF] Symons | A review of information systems evaluation: content, context and process[END_REF]. It could be argued that, for countries that already have usable cross -border solutions, developing new system might be an unnecessary additional use of resources. At the same time, even Estonian e-governance visionaries agree [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF][START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF][START_REF] Korjus | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF] that a digital single market including 28 Member States would be impossible without the eIDAS, thus justifying the use of additional resources [START_REF] Sikkut | Interview on 2015-04-13[END_REF].

With a supranational framework, impact can be greater, as the partners of the EU are also influenced [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]. For example, when Directive 1999/93/EC was implemented , many of the neighbouring countries were guided by it while developing their digital signature acts. For example, Estonia passed its Digital Signature Act based on the directive, while still outside of the EU [START_REF] Pedak | Interview on 2015-04-29[END_REF]. As businesses are keen to cooperate with the EU, the building of a successful digital common market should create the possibility of expanding internationally. Thus giving the EU an opportunity to create something innovative, giving stakeholders (e.g., the EES) the chance of reaching a significantly bigger market. Theoretically, the eIDAS could create a system where countries can use the best available e-services (e.g., the tax system created by one country, a pension system by another and a health register by a third) making e-governing remarkably more effective and cost-efficient. [START_REF] Pihl | Interview on 2015-04-24[END_REF]

Conclusion

By analyzing the dimensions of content, context and process, we concluded that, despite some additional obligations imposed by the eIDAS, the regulation supports the national e-government's goals and domestic cross -border initiatives. Also, as the creation of digital open borders among 28 member states would be unlikely without supranational interference, we propose that it is in the interest of the member states to contribute to the fast implementation of the eIDAS. Still, as only the Estonian case was analysed, we cannot say that this would be the case in all member states. In future research, more cases need to be covered to make comprehensive conclusions.

Figure 1 :

 1 Figure 1: Forming bilateral agreements.

Figure 2 :

 2 Figure 2: Enabling non-citizens to access the national e-state and use e-services.

  ,

	A person/company from Country X	SignWise cloud-based environment	A person/company from Country Y
	Member State A
		Member State B
		Member State C

The basis has been Directive 99/93/EC

X-road is the most important environment in the Estonian e-government system, connecting different public and private e-service databases, and making the services interoperable[START_REF]E-Cabinet[END_REF]. The end user is identified with an ID card or through online banking. Public and private sector enterprises and institutions can co nnect their own electronic environment with x-road, and make data exchange more effective[31].

Electronic ID card is a smart card, which can be used for authentication of the card holder and for giving digital signatures and encrypt documents. Digital IDs are issued to citizens and residents of Estonia[START_REF] Center | What is Digi-ID, How Can I Get it and What Can I Do With it[END_REF].

E-government development index (EGDI) is an index, which aims to view egovernment development and reflect relative knowledge of best practices by analysing three dimensions of e-governmentprovision of online services, telecommunicatio n connectivity and human capacity[START_REF]E-Government Survey[END_REF].

Acknowledgements. The work of Gerli Aavik has been supported in parts by TUT Project B42. The work of Robert Krimmer has been supported in parts by TUT Project B42 and ETAG IUT19-13.


Iryna Susha
email: iryna.susha@oru.se

Paul Johannesson

Gustaf Juell-Skielse

Open Data Research in the Nordic Region: Towards a Scandinavian approach?

Keywords: open data, open government data, open government, literature review, Scandinavian, Nordic Open data adoption 24, 25, 27, 28, 31 Open data entrepreneurship 24, 12, 13, 31, 33, 41, 35, 39 Open data evaluation 26, 28, 42 Open data applications 30, 22, 38, 37 Open data stakeholders 11, 28 Open

) which empirical settings and methods are applied in Nordic open data research. Finding answers to these questions will enable us to propose a future research agenda and thereby stimulate debate in the Nordic open data research community.

Introduction

Since 2009 governments around the world have been implementing programs to provide public sector information online in the open data format. Open data refers to data which is legally and technically open, i.e. it can be accessed, reused, and redistributed freely by anyone and it is available in machine-readable and bulk form (Open Data Handbook, n.d.). Open data programs are driven by expectations that open government data will be reused by actors outside the government and thereby deliver a wide range of benefits, such as economic growth and increased transparency.

Responding to these rapid developments, in the past five years the field of open data has been growing into a specialized research area. Presently all major e-government conferences (IFIP Electronic Government, International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, International Conference on Digital Government Research, and European Conference on e-Government) host dedicated open data tracks, and a number of special issues focusing on open data problems and themes have been lately announced in various e-government journals (Government Information Quarterly, Social Science Computer Review, Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce). This contributes to the growth of national and international research communities and networks in the field of open data (e.g. Open Data Research Network 2 ).

In the Nordic countries open data research has been taking root as well in the past years. These countries have already made considerable progress in open data publication and use according to existing open data benchmarks. For instance, currently the Nordic countries are ranked in the top 25 globally by the Open Data Barometer survey 3 .

However, no systematic overview exists yet of the open data research conducted in these countries or of the emerging research community. This paper therefore aims to fill this gap by conducting a comprehensive literature review. The objective of the literature review is to describe the body of knowledge focusing on open data and originating from this region. Zooming in on the Nordic region is motivated by the fact that historically Information Systems research from this region has managed to develop a distinct identity on the international research arena [START_REF] Iivari | Research on information systems development in Scandinavia[END_REF]

Open data research and the Scandinavian tradition

Internationally open data research has seen rapid development in the past several years. Although it is an emerging field, important first steps have been taken to lay the conceptual foundations and explore the empirical evidence of open data benefits and impacts. Only a few attempts have yet been undertaken at literature reviews in the field of open data, but even those few offer valuable lessons.

The Historically, some research directions have been in focus of the Nordic Information Systems (IS) research to a larger extent than others. The so-called Scandinavian School of IS can be summarized in the "grassroot" perspective on IS development [START_REF] Iivari | Is Scandinavian Information System Development Becoming Passé?[END_REF] with close collaboration with relevant stakeholders [START_REF] Mathiassen | Engaged scholarship in IS research[END_REF]. According to [START_REF] Iivari | Is Scandinavian Information System Development Becoming Passé?[END_REF], the Scandinavian school has emphasized four elements: IS evolution, user participation, alternative IS development models, and a search for a variety of theoretical IS foundations. In the Scandinavian tradition information systems are not necessarily aligned with organizations through deliberate one-time design decisions but rather through continuous alignment processes. This is due to organizations becoming less formal and more socially complex, as well as technology becoming more flexible. From the user participation perspective, the Scandinavian school has favored close collaboration with users to understand the work practices that information systems should support and to tap into the tacit requirements of users. In terms of IS development models, the Scandinavian school has favored prototyping, as well as incremental and cooperative approaches. Moreover, the Scandinavian school has used a variety of theoretical foundations including activity theory, structuration theory, and class theory while at the same time neglecting organization theory as a reference discipline (ibid.).

Considering this, there is much potential for capitalizing on these four elements of the grassroots approach in the Scandinavian school of IS for the benefit of open data research in these countries. Our literature review aims to shed some light on the state of the art of Nordic open data research and hence build the first bridge towards aligning it with the Scandinavian IS tradition.

In this paper we use the term "Scandinavian" in reference to the Scandinavian school of IS and the term "Nordic" in reference to the geographic region we focus on, i.e. Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and their territories. In the literature describing the school of approaches to IS development from these countries the term "Scandinavian" has been more common.

Method

The literature review proceeded according to the guidelines of [START_REF] Webster | Analyzing the past to prepare for the future: Writing a literature review[END_REF]. The literature search was conducted using keyword search in Scopus. This is arguably the most comprehensive database listing the majority of journals and conference proceedings in Information Systems. Prior literature reviews of open data [START_REF] Zuiderwijk | Innovation through open data: A review of the state-of-the-art and an emerging research agenda[END_REF] referred to this database as the primary source of literature in the field.

The first search parameter was keywords 'open data', 'open government data', and 'open government' searched against the categories of keywords, title, and/or abstract. The second search parameter was the country of researcher affiliation; the selection criterion was that at least one of the co-authors was affiliated with a Nordic country (Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, or Iceland). The review considered the time period up until the date of the search (16 November 2015).

The keyword search yielded 158 results in total. The search results were refined by document type to include only articles, conference papers, and book chapters and by subject area to include only results in the subject areas of Computer Science and Social Sciences (113 papers were selected). These two subject areas included the majority of found articles.

The relevance of the articles was determined by reading the abstracts. Only papers written by authors with an academic affiliation were considered. Only papers positioned in the Information Systems discipline were included in the review. Papers describing rather technical issues, such as e.g. data format conversion, data cubes, or data assimilation frameworks, were omitted. This might be seen as a limitation of this study, but our primary objective is to examine how IS and e-government researchers approach open data rather than to investigate cross-domain research.

Consequently, out of the 113 found articles 44 were selected for in-depth analysis based on the aforesaid criteria. The distribution per country was as follows: 8 papers from Denmark (out of 24 found), 15 papers from Finland (out of 39 found), and 21 papers from Sweden (out of 35 found). No relevant papers were identified from Norway, those found (20 papers) predominantly focused on technical issues. No relevant papers were identified originating from Icelandic researchers.

Results

The 44 articles included in the review are listed in the Appendix. The earliest articles in the list were dated year 2012. A number of different research institutions per country are involved in open data research. The author affiliations show that there is a fair degree of collaboration in the open data community, as the majority of papers [START_REF] Hellberg | The story of the sixth myth of open data and open government[END_REF] were coauthored with another researcher(s) either nationally (10), from another Nordic country (1), or abroad [START_REF] Jaakkola | Open data -Opportunities and challenges[END_REF]. Cross-border Nordic collaboration in open data research has so far been limited, since in our review we found just one article (37. Vogel et al., 2014) coauthored by researchers from two Nordic countries (Sweden and Finland). The lowest degree of collaboration is found in open data research from Denmark with all papers included in the review being authored by a single institution, with one exception (1. Henriksen, 2015) with a double affiliation.

Perspectives and topics

Examining which perspectives and topics are used in the papers can reveal what lies in focus of open data researchers from this region. This knowledge can help identify the niche for the Nordic contribution to international open data research.

Table 1 below classifies the reviewed articles by the topics examined in them. The topics were identified by screening the keywords provided by the authors and by reading the abstracts. Many articles examined several concepts in connection with one another and therefore were placed in several categories in Table 1. From Table 2 we conclude that the social and economical perspectives are dominating. Some authors adopt multiple perspectives, primarily a combination of the social and economical ones. No author takes an operational perspective; while the paper comparing the discourses of open data and modern archiving (32. Borglund and Engvall, 2014) did not fit any of the listed perspectives and was labeled as 'Discourse'. It should be noted that, since we deliberately excluded papers from our sample focusing predominantly on technical issues, this has had an effect on the number of papers in the technical perspective. It was also found that authors focus on different actor roles: in the social perspective the actor roles are shared between user, developer, supplier and intermediary (e.g. open data consultant or innovation contest); while in the economical perspective the focus is on the actor role of developer.

More specifically, as evidenced in

Empirical settings and methods

Analyzing the empirical settings and methods applied in the papers is intended to reveal (1) on which level (international, national, or regional/local) open data issues are examined by Nordic researchers and (2) which methods are in use by this open data research community. This knowledge provides an insight into how researchers in the Nordic region choose to approach research problems in the open data field. Table 3 below provides an overview of the empirical settings examined in the selected papers. Theoretical papers (reference numbers [START_REF] Jetzek | Generating sustainable value from open data in a sharing society[END_REF][START_REF] Marton | Reframing Open Big Data[END_REF][START_REF] Andersen | Occupation of the 'open city[END_REF][START_REF] Tossavainen | Implementing a system enabling open innovation by sharing public goals based on linked open data[END_REF][START_REF] Lindman | Open Data Services: Research Agenda[END_REF][START_REF] Hansson | Open Government and Democracy: A Research Review[END_REF] are not listed in the overview of empirical settings.

As follows from Table 3, open data research produced by Nordic researchers is not only focused on the Nordic country contexts but extends beyond the borders of the region. An important factor in this respect is the fact that other countries (in particular the US and UK) have advanced much further in open data, thereby presenting an opportunity for researching cutting edge issues and problems empirically. Nonetheless, there is also emerging knowledge about regional and local open data activities (in particular in Sweden) which may be utilized for cross-border knowledge transfer between Nordic researchers. Table 4 below lists the methods which are used in the papers in our sample. It includes both empirical and conceptual papers. Papers without any mentioning of any particular method used (reference numbers 8, 14, 18, 36) are not listed in the table. Another observation is that the majority of papers used qualitative research methods, although mixed research designs were also well represented. There is a notable exception (6. Jetzek et al., 2013) in which the authors used regression analysis (Partial Least Squares method) to test their open data value framework using open secondary data sources.

Discussion and conclusions

Based on the findings of this literature review we hereby propose an agenda for future research. This agenda highlights the research gaps identified in the previous section and aims to help advance the field forward. Our point of departure in this discussion is that such a research agenda must also be aligned with some of the key developments in practice in these countries.

In our review we established that some topics received more attention of Nordic researchers than others, namely the innovation-related topics were better represented than the democracy-related ones. At the same time in Denmark and Finland there is limited evidence of political and social impact of open data compared to the economic impact (Open Data Barometer, 2015). This therefore calls for research into how and to what extent open data has an impact on political and social aspects, such as trust in government, citizen empowerment, quality of public services, improvement of public policies etc. Furthermore, our analysis found that Nordic open data research focusing on perspectives other than economical and social is limited, hence a more nuanced approach also including legal, operational, institutional, political, and technical perspectives could provide a fruitful way forward. More specifically, based on our analysis we find that there is a lack of research on open data policies and process management, as well as on infrastructures for open data. We also believe that the work already done on the topic of open data adoption and citizen participation in the Nordic countries could be further strengthened, for example in the direction of user participation. So far in our sample we only found some seeds of the emerging focus on user participation which traditionally characterizes the Scandinavian IS school.

In terms of empirical settings, our review concluded that different levels (international, national, regional/local) are represented in the sample of articles. However, the number of contributions focusing on regional or local open data contexts are much smaller (only 7 articles). This finding may be seen as surprising considering the prevalent focus of the Scandinavian Information Systems research tradition on small scale development (the grassroots approach). We envisage that a stronger emphasis on regional and local open data initiatives and on the benefits they create for the communities on the ground provides good opportunities for future contributions.

Finally, as regards the methods used in Nordic open data research, we find that there is a lack of theory building research, while case studies prevail. Thus, there is room for more theoretical work in the field which can examine the utility of existing IS theories for the studies of open data. As mentioned in section 2, traditionally Scandinavian IS research is characterized by a variety of theoretical foundations. These are yet to be reflected on in the context of Nordic open data research.

To conclude, when we compare our results with the future research directions proposed by Zuiderwijk

  . Hence the expectation is that also in the context of open data there exists room for unique contribution of Nordic researchers. Is such a contribution taking shape yet? This literature review thus aims to answer the following research question: What progress is made in research to understand open data in the Nordic context? This question will be answered by focusing on the following aspects: (1) which perspectives and topics are examined in the studies and (2) which empirical settings and methods are applied in the studies. Finding answers to these questions will enable us to propose a future research agenda and thereby stimulate debate in the Nordic open data research community. With this study we aim to open a discussion of (a) whether there is an emerging Nordic contribution to the international open data research and (b) to what extent such a contribution can and does build on the Scandinavian school of Information Systems research.

  Another observation we can make is that, contrary to the global trend in open data research of being supply-and publication-focused, Nordic open data research (in this case exclusively from Sweden) has paid more attention to open data adoption. In this category studies focused on such issues as motivation of open data users (33. Juell-Skielse et al., 2014), measures to stimulate open data adoption (27. Susha et al., 2015), expectations and perceptions regarding open data use (25. Hellberg & Hedström, 2015), among others. As open data is an emerging research domain, the community of active researchers is quite small. Considering this, we observe that in different countries and institutions different core expertise concerning open data has been accumulating. For instance, research at Copenhagen Business School (Denmark) has prominently focused on open data value; research at Stockholm University and University of Borås (Sweden) has extensively studied innovation contests; research at Hanken School of Economics (Finland) offers expertise on open data market and business models. This provides an opportunity for learning from one another and combining expertise to undertake more holistic studies. The aforesaid paints a picture of research gaps as well. There seems to be a lack of studies which focus explicitly on the democracy perspective of open data. Only one paper (29. Hansson et al., 2015) was identified which investigated open data in the context of open government and democracy principles. Another finding is that there is ample room for research on the effect of open data on public services including e-government services. The paper examining the use of open data in the e-government service process (30. Johansson et al., 2015) is a starting point in this respect.

  et al. (2014), we find that the Nordic researchers have made a most prominent contribution towards the research direction of open data innovation and use. The contribution is mainly concerned with open innovation, digital service innovation, innovation contests and the stimulation of use in terms of open data markets, adoption, benefits, and business models. In our future research we aim to continue our survey of the Nordic open data research in order to identify specific opportunities to further strengthen the Nordic contribution towards the global open data research community based on the legacy of the Scandinavian School of IS.

Table 1 .

 1 Topics of Nordic open data research

	Concepts	Reference Number
	Open innovation	11, 41, 31, 33, 35, 23, 39, 40, 42
	Innovation contests	31, 33, 35, 22, 40, 17, 16, 10, 43, 41, 42
	Service innovation	24, 30, 41, 35, 23, 20, 21

Table 2

 2 which follows below provides an overview of the perspectives adopted in the surveyed articles. In our analysis we applied the perspectives suggested by Zuiderwijk et al. (2014): social, economical, institutional, operational, technical, legal and political. The perspectives were identified by reading the abstracts.

Table 2 .

 2 Perspectives adopted in Nordic open data research

	Perspec-	Reference Number
	tive
	Social	40, 35, 28, 41, 33, 31, 11, 1, 20, 30, 38, 15, 10, 16, 17, 24, 27, 34, 25,
		44
	Economi-	12, 42, 9, 39, 13, 21, 4, 6
	cal
	Institu-	43
	tional
	Operational
	Technical	7, 37, 14
	Legal	19, 36
	Political	29, 8
	Multiple	5, 22, 23, 18, 3, 2, 26

Table 1 ,

 1 Nordic open data research focuses on a wide range of issues, however, certain aspects of open data have been highlighted to a greater extent. It appears that the stronghold of Nordic open data research so far has been the innovation-related topics. The most widely discussed topics in the reviewed articles were open innovation, open data entrepreneurship, service innovation, innovation contests. The authors focusing on innovation issues agree that, whereas there is much potential for businesses to generate value from open data (2. Jetzek et al., 2014; 39. Lakomaa & Kallberg, 2013; 13. Lindman et al., 2014), many barriers to realizing this potential remain (35. Hjalmarsson et al., 2014; 24. Susha et al., 2015).

Table 3 .

 3 Empirical settings examined in the articles

	Country	International	National	Regional or local
	Denmark	4, 2	1, 5, 6
	Finland	11, 16, 18, 9, 19	12, 13, 14, 15, 20,	10, 22
			21
	Sweden	24, 27, 26, 28, 31, 34, 36,
		37

Table 4 .

 4 Methods applied in the articlesFrom Table4it follows that case study is the most widely used research method to study open data issues. This can be explained by the fact that open data is an emerging practical development receiving varying levels of attention of different organizations. There is hardly any systematic evidence or uniform implementation, especially at the subnational level. A case study is thus a well-suited method for studying emerging initiatives. Nordic open data research has not only investigated ongoing open data applications (such as e.g. use of open data in decision support systems in the maritime industry, use of open data for smart cities) but also includes research in the design science tradition. Namely, Aaltonen et al. (20. Aaltonen et al., 2013) in their paper developed a proof-ofconcept implementation of a mash-up system built on wellness data and Ayele et al. (42. Ayele et al., 2015) developed a measurement model for open digital innovation contests. Furthermore, the work of Johansson et al. (30. Johansson et al., 2015) resulted in a digital prototype allowing citizens to generate and acquire open data, as well as develop and publish their own e-services. Design science research is however less represented than descriptive and analytical work in the review sample.

	Methods	Reference Number
	Empirical
	Case study	11, 25, 27, 28, 2, 44, 4, 43, 22, 38, 19
	Interviews	12, 13
	Survey	24, 39
	Stakeholder analysis	34
	Mixed	1, 41, 15, 31, 32, 33, 35, 21
	Design science	30, 37, 40, 42, 20
	Regression analysis	6
	Goal modelling	10, 16, 17
	Conceptual
	Literature review	29, 23, 9

http://www.opendataresearch.org/

http://opendatabarometer.org/data-explorer/?_year=2015&indicator=ODB

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the reviewers at the Scandinavian Workshop on E-government and the Electronic Government conference for their feedback. We appreciate the input of Åke Grönlund on the early version of this paper.


Fedor Zhdanov

Yuri Kalnishkan

Linear Probability Forecasting

Keywords: Linear Probability Forecasting Online prediction, classification, linear regression, Aggregating Algorithm

des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Introduction

Online prediction provides efficient algorithms which adapt to a predicted sequence "on the fly" [START_REF] Cesa-Bianchi | Prediction, Learning, and Games[END_REF]. In the online regression framework one assumes the existence of some input at each step; the goal is to predict the outcome on this input. This process is repeated step by step. We consider the multidimensional case where outcomes and predictions come from the probability simplex and can be thought of as probability distributions on the vertices of the simplex. If the outcomes are identified with the vertices of the simplex, this problem can be thought of as the multi-class classification problem of the given input. We prove upper bounds on the cumulative square loss of the learner in comparison with the loss of the best linear function (we say the learner competes with these functions).

We develop two algorithms to solve the problem of multidimensional prediction. The first algorithm applies a variant of the AAR (see [START_REF] Vovk | Competitive on-line statistics[END_REF]) to predict each component of the outcome separately, and then combines these predictions in a certain way to get probability prediction. The other algorithm is designed to give probability predictions directly. In order to develop this algorithm we consider an original class of experts which are asymmetrical by the components of their predictions. We are not aware of any other computationally efficient online regression algorithms designed to solve linear and non-linear multi-class classification problems. We come to an unexpected conclusion that the upper bound on the loss of the component-wise algorithm is better than the upper bound on the loss of the second algorithm asymptotically, but worse in the beginning of the prediction process.

One component of the prediction of the second algorithm has the meaning of a remainder. In practice this situation is quite common. For example, it is popular in financial applications to predict the direction of the price: up, down, or close to the current value. We perform classification experiments with linear algorithms and compare them with logistic regression. The full version of our paper with proofs and detailed explanations can be found in [START_REF] Zhdanov | Linear probability forecasting[END_REF].

Framework

We are interested in the generalisation of the Brier game from [START_REF] Brier | Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability[END_REF]. The set of possible outcomes Ω = P(Σ) is the set of all probability measures on a finite set Σ with d elements, the prediction set Γ := {(γ 1 , . . . , γ d ) :

d i=1 γ i = 1, γ i ∈ R} is a hyperplane in d-dimensional
space containing all the outcomes. For any y ∈ Ω we define the Brier loss

λ(y, γ) = σ∈Σ (γ{σ} -y{σ}) 2 .
The game of prediction is being played repeatedly by a learner receiving some input vectors x t ∈ X ⊆ R n , and follows Protocol 1.

Protocol 1 Protocol of forecasting game Learner competes with all linear functions (experts) ξ t = (ξ 1 t , . . . , ξ d t ) of x:

ξ 1 t = 1/d + α 1 x t . . . ξ d-1 t = 1/d + α d-1 x t (1)
ξ d t = 1 -ξ 1 -• • • -ξ d-1 = 1/d - d-1 i=1 α i x t ,
where α i = (α 1 i , . . . , α n i ) , i = 1, . . . , d -1. In the model (1) the prediction for the last component of the outcome is calculated from the predictions for other components. Denote α = (α 1 , . . . , α d-1 ) ∈ Θ = R n(d-1) . Then any expert can be represented as ξ t = ξ t (α). Let also L T (α) = T t=1 λ(y t , ξ t (α)) be the cumulative loss of the expert α over T trials and L T denote the cumulative loss of the learner. The goal of the learner is to ensure that L T ≤ L T (α) + R T for all T and α, and some small R T .

Derivation of the algorithms

The component-wise algorithm gives predictions for each component of the outcome separately and then combines them in a special way. To derive this algorithm, we use component-wise experts

ξ i t = 1/d + α i x t , i = 1, . . . , d (2)
and follow [START_REF] Vovk | Competitive on-line statistics[END_REF]. The algorithm cAAR (component-wise Aggregating Algorithm for Regression) gives its preliminary prediction at the step T

γ i T = 1 d + T -1 t=1 (y i t -1/d)x t + d -2 2d x T aI + T t=1 x t x t -1 x T (3)
for i = 1, . . . , d. Then it projects the preliminary prediction onto the probability prediction simplex such that the loss does not increase. This is done by the means of the projection algorithm (Algorithm 1) suggested in [START_REF] Michelot | A finite algorithm for finding the projection of a point onto the canonical simplex of R n[END_REF].

Algorithm 1 Projection of a point from R n onto probability simplex.

Initialize I = ∅, x = 1 ∈ R d .
Let γT be the prediction vector and |I| is the dimension of the set I. while 1 do γT = γT -

P d i=1 γ i T -1 d-|I| ; γ i T = 0, ∀i ∈ I; If γ i
T ≥ 0 for all i = 1, . . . , d then break;

I = I S {i : γ i T < 0}; If γ i T < 0 for some i then γ i T = 0; end while
We apply the Aggregating Algorithm (AA) proposed in [START_REF] Vovk | Aggregating strategies[END_REF] to mix experts (1) and make predictions. The resulting algorithm is Algorithm 2. We will further call it the mAAR (the multidimensional Aggregating Algorithm for Regression).

Theoretical guarantees

We derive upper bounds for the losses of Algorithm 2 and of the component-wise algorithm predicting in the same framework.

The loss of the component-wise algorithm by each component is bounded as in the following theorem.

Algorithm 2 mAAR for the Brier game

Fix n, a > 0. C = 0, h = 0. for t = 1, 2, . . . do Read new xt ∈ X.

C = C + xtx t , A = aI + 0 B @ 2C • • • C . . . . . . . . . C • • • 2C 1 C A Set bi = h + (x t , . . . , x t , 0, x t , . . . , x t ) , where 0 is a zero-vector from R n is placed at i-th position, i = 1, . . . , d -1. Set zi = (-x t , . . . , -x t , -2x t , -x t , . . . , -x t ) , where -2x t is placed at i-th posi- tion, i = 1, . . . , d -1. Calculate ri := -b i A -1 zi, r d := 0, i = 1, . . . , d -1. Solve P d i=1 (s -ri) + = 2 in s ∈ R. Set γ i t := (s -ri) + /2, ω ∈ Ω, i = 1, . . . , d. Output prediction γt ∈ P(Ω). Read outcome yt. hi = hi -2(y i t -y d t )xt, h = (h 1 , . . . , h d-1
) . end for Theorem 1. Let the outcome set in a prediction game be [A, B], A, B ∈ R. Assume experts' predictions at each step are ξ t = C + α x t , where α ∈ R n and C ∈ R is the same for all experts. Let x t ∞ ≤ X for all t and take a > 0. There exists a prediction algorithm producing predictions γ t such that for every positive integer T , every sequence of inputs and outcomes of the length T , and any α ∈ R n , it achieves

T t=1 (γ t -y t ) 2 ≤ T t=1 (ξ t -y t ) 2 + a α 2 2 + n(B -A) 2 4 ln T X 2 a + 1 . (4)
In the multidimensional case the loss of the component-wise algorithm is bounded as in the following theorem.

Theorem 2. If x t ∞ ≤ X for all t, then for any a > 0, every positive integer T , every sequence of outcomes of the length T , and any α ∈ R n(d-1) , the loss L T of the component-wise algorithm satisfies

L T ≤ L T (α) + da α 2 2 + nd 4 ln T X 2 a + 1 . (5)
The upper bound for the loss of Algorithm 2 is proven in the following theorem. To prove it, we extend the result of [START_REF] Vovk | Prediction with expert advice for the Brier game[END_REF] for our game and ensure that the Aggregating Algorithm is applicable here. Theorem 3. If x t ∞ ≤ X for all t, then for any a > 0, every positive integer T , every sequence of outcomes of the length T , and any α ∈ R n(d-1) , the mAAR(2a) satisfies

L T (mAAR(2a)) ≤ L T (α) + 2a α 2 2 + n(d -1) 2 ln T X 2 a + 1 . (6)
The upper bound (6) has worse constant n(d-1) 2 in front of the logarithm than nd 4 of the bound (5) if d ≥ 3. In this case ( 6) is worse asymptotically in T than ( 5), but it is better in the beginning, especially when the norm of the best expert α is large. This can happen in the important case when the dimension of the input vectors is larger than the size of the prediction set: n >> T .

Kernelization

We use the popular in computer learning kernel trick (see, e.g., [START_REF] Gammerman | On-line prediction with kernels and the complexity approximation principle[END_REF]). Our algorithm competes with the following experts:

ξ 1 t = 1/d + f 1 (x t ) . . . ξ d-1 t = 1/d + f d-1 (x t ) (7)
ξ d t = 1 -ξ 1 -• • • -ξ d-1 .
Here f 1 , . . . , f d-1 ∈ F are any functions from some RKHS F (Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space). We start by rewriting the mAAR in the dual form. Denote

Y i = -2(y i 1 -y d 1 , . . . , y i T -1 -y d T -1 , -1/2); Y i = -2(y i 1 -y d 1 , . . . , y i T -1 -y d T -1 , 0); k(x T ) = (x 1 x T , . . . , x T x T ) ; K = (x s , x t ) s,t
is the matrix of scalar products for i = 1, . . . , d -1, s, t = 1, . . . , T . We show that the predictions of the mAAR can be represented in terms of the variables defined above. Lemma 1. On trial T , the values r i for i = 1, . . . , d -1 in the mAAR can be represented as

r i = Y 1 • • • Y i • • • Y d-1 • aI + K -1 k(x T ) • • • 2 k(x T ) • • • k(x T ) . (8)
To get predictions one can use the same calculations with r i as in the mAAR. We call this algorithm the mKAAR (K for Kernelized).

Theoretical guarantee for the kernelized algorithm

The upper bound on the loss of the mKAAR is proven in the following theorem. Theorem 4. Assume X is an arbitrary set of inputs and F is an RKHS of functions on X with the given kernel K : X 2 → R. Then for any a > 0, any f 1 , . . . , f d-1 ∈ F, any positive integer T , and any sequence of input vectors and outcomes (x 1 , y 1 ), . . . , (x T , y T ), mKAAR achieves

L T (mKAAR) ≤ L T (f ) + a d-1 i=1 f i 2 F + 1 2 ln det(aI + K) (9)
Here the matrix K is the matrix of the kernel values K(x i , x j ), i, j = 1, . . . , T .

We can represent the bound (9) in another form which is more familiar from the online prediction literature: Corollary 1. Under the assumptions of Theorem 4 and if the number of steps T is known in advance, the mKAAR reaches the performance

L T (mKAAR) ≤ L T (f ) + c 2 F + d-1 i=1 f i 2 F (d -1)T , (10)
for any f 1 , . . . , f d-1 ∈ F.

Experiments

We run our algorithms on six real world time-series data sets. DEC-PKT,LBL-PKT-41 contain network traffic; C4,C9,E5,E82 relate to transportation data. We use ten previous observations as the input vectors for the tested algorithms at each prediction step. We predict whether the next value in a time series will be more than the previous value plus a precision parameter , less than that value, or will stay in the 2 tube around the previous value. The measure of the quality of predictions is the mean square loss (MSE) over the last two thirds of each time series (test set). We also introduce another quality measure, which is the average of the MSEs up to each step in the test set (AMSE).

We compare the performance of our algorithms with the multinomial logistic regression (mLog), because it is a standard classification algorithm which gives probability predictions:

γ i mLog = e θ i x
3 i=1 e θ i x for all the components of the outcome i = 1, 2, 3. Here the parameters θ 1 , θ 2 , θ d are estimated from the training set (the first third for each series). We apply this algorithm in two regimes. The batch regime, where the algorithm is trained only on the training set and is tested on the test set. The online regime (mLog Online), where at each step new parameters θ are found and only one next outcome is predicted. In both regimes logistic regression does not have theoretical guarantees on the square loss. We also compare our algorithms with the simple predictor (Simple) predicting the average of the ten previous outcomes (it thus always gives probability predictions).

In order to make a prediction, the cAAR requires O(dn 2 ) operations per step (the most time-consuming operation is the inverse of the matrix, and can be done using Sherman-Morrison formula). The mAAR requires O((d -1) 2 n 2 + d 3 ) operations per step (using Woodbury Formula). Batch logistic regression just gives predictions, which requires O(n) operations per step (we ignore the training time here). Online logistic regression has to be retrained at each step, and the convergence is not guaranteed. Training algorithms usually use Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares, which in general requires at least O(dn 3 ) operations per each iteration.

We are not aware of other efficient algorithms for online probability prediction, and thus logistic regression and simple predictor are the only baselines. Component-wise algorithms which could be used for comparison (e.g., Gradient Descent, [START_REF] Kivinen | Exponentiated gradient versus gradient descent for linear predictors[END_REF], Ridge Regression, [START_REF] Hoerl | Ridge Regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems[END_REF]), have to use Algorithm 1 to project their predictions. Thus they have to be applied in a different way than they are described in the corresponding papers, and can not be fairly compared with our algorithms.

The ridge for our algorithms is chosen to achieve the best MSE on the training set. The results are shown in Table 1. As we can see from the table, online methods perform better than the batch method. The online logistic regression performs well, but it is very slow. Our algorithms perform similar to each other and comparable to the online logistic regression, but they are much faster.

Conclusions

We present new algorithms which give probability predictions in the online multidimensional Brier game. Both algorithms do not involve any numerical integration and can be easily computed. Both algorithms have theoretical guarantees on their cumulative losses. One of the algorithms is kernelized and a theoretical bound is proven for the kernelized algorithm. We perform experiments with the linear algorithms and show that they perform relatively well. We compare them with the logistic regression: the benchmark algorithm giving probability predictions.

Kivinen and Warmuth's work [START_REF] Kivinen | Relative loss bounds for multidimensional regression problems[END_REF] includes the case when the possible outcomes lie in a more than 2-dimensional simplex and their algorithm competes with all logistic regression functions. They use the relative entropy loss function L and get a regret term of the order O( L T (α)) which is upper unbounded in the worst case. Their prediction algorithm is not computationally efficient and it is not clear how to extend their results for the case when the predictors lie in an RKHS.

We can prove lower bounds for the regret term of the order O( d-1 d ln T ) for the case of the linear model (1) using methods similar to the ones described in [START_REF] Vovk | Competitive on-line statistics[END_REF], and lower bounds for the regret term of the order O( √ T ) for the case of RKHS. Thus we can say that the order of our bounds by time step is optimal. Multiplicative constants may possibly be improved though.

Table 1 .

 1 The square losses and prediction time (sec) of different algorithms applied for time series prediction.

	Algorithm MSE AMSE Time	MSE AMSE Time
		DEC-PKT		LBL-PKT
	cAAR	0.45906 0.45822 0.578	0.48147 0.479	0.579
	mAAR	0.45906 0.45822 1.25	0.48147 0.479	1.266
	mLog	0.46107 0.46265 0.375	0.47749 0.47482 0.391
	mLog Online 0.45751 0.45762 2040.141 0.47598 0.47398 2403.562
	Simple	0.58089 0.57883	0	0.57087 0.5657 0.016
		C4		C9
	cAAR	0.64834 0.65447 0.015 0.63238 0.64082 0.015
	mAAR	0.64538 0.65312 0.062	0.63338 0.64055 0.063
	mLog	0.76849 0.77797 0.016	0.97718 0.91654 0.031
	mLog Online 0.68164 0.7351 4.328	0.71178 0.75558 10.625
	Simple	0.69037 0.69813 0.016	0.6509 0.65348	0
		E5		E8
	cAAR	0.34452 0.34252 0.078	0.29395 0.29276 0.078
	mAAR	0.34453 0.34252 0.219	0.29374 0.29223 0.25
	mLog	0.31038 0.30737 1.109	0.31316 0.30382 0.109
	mLog Online 0.30646 0.30575 446.578 0.27982 0.27068 83.125
	Simple	0.58212 0.58225	0	0.69691 0.70527 0.016

Data sets can be found http://ita.ee.lbl.gov/html/traces.html.

Data sets can be found http://www.neural-forecasting-competition.com/index.htm.

Acknowledgments

Authors are grateful for useful comments and discussions to Alexey Chernov, Vladimir Vovk, and Ilia Nouretdinov. This work has been supported in part by EPSRC grant EP/F002998/1 and ASPIDA grant from the CRPF.