Joris Hulstijn

Wout Hofman

Gerwin Zomer

Yao-Hua Tan

Towards Trusted Trade-Lanes

Keywords: Regulatory supervision, customs, supply chain visibility

de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Introduction

Customs administrations face two opposing challenges. One the one hand they must improve regulatory compliance, specifically related to safety and security, while on the other hand reducing administrative burden and facilitating trade. To meet these challenges, customs administrations are adjusting their regulatory supervision models. They increasingly rely on the compliance efforts of the companies themselves [START_REF] Burgemeestre | Value-based Argumentation for Justifying Compliance[END_REF]. This often involves a so called system-based approach to regulatory supervision, which -by contrast to the currently dominant transaction-based approach -takes the entire system of internal controls into account [START_REF] May | Regulatory regimes and accountability[END_REF]. This includes the way in which companies choose to collaborate in a value chain, their business processes and logistics operations, as well as their information systems and security devices.

In practice, those companies that can demonstrate to be 'in control' of the risks, are recognized as so called trusted traders and receive benefits in terms of reduced inspections [START_REF] Wco | SAFE framework of standards to secure and facilitate global trade (version 2015)[END_REF]. Certification schemes exist to recognize trusted traders, like AEO in the European Union. However, supply chain risks and challenges, such as sustainability or resilience, affect the entire trade lane and can't be solved by individual companies alone. For this reason, recent vision documents suggest a customs supervision approach that is based on the concept of a trusted trade lane [START_REF]Pushing boundaries: The Customs Administration of The Netherlands' point on the horizon for the enforcement on continuously increasing flows of goods[END_REF]: a collaboration of supply chain partners who maintain a system of control measures in order to cover the risks of the entire trade-lane, which makes the trade lane trustworthy, both to the authorities and to commercial partners. It is an open question how to characterize a trusted trade-lane. Regulators are actively debating this issue.

In this paper we discuss what it would mean to form a trusted trade lane and how trustworthiness can be demonstrated. What makes a group of trading companies trustworthy to themselves, their commercial parties and to the authorities? Based on a discussion of the literature on supply chains, regulatory supervision and internal controls, and extrapolating from observations about current trusted trader initiatives like AEO, we propose a set of essential characteristics of a trusted trade-lane.

It is uncertain how the companies in a trade-lane will organize themselves and how they will demonstrate to the regulator that they are trustworthy. In particular, we see several scenarios ranging from a dominant party scenario, in which a company forces its suppliers to join and adopt the necessary controls, through a cooperative scenario, offering services to its members, towards a data-driven scenario in which patterns of behavior can be identified to show trustworthiness empirically.

To validate the proposed characteristics, we have held an evaluation workshop with supply chain experts. In addition, we compare the scenarios with observations from three real-life demonstrator projects that aim to develop supply chain visibility infrastructures, see e.g. [START_REF] Klievink | Enhancing Visibility in International Supply Chains: The Data Pipeline Concept[END_REF]. These can be seen as real-life cases.

The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 identifies essential characteristics of trusted trade-lanes. Section 3 develops several scenarios for setting up and demonstrating trustworthiness. Section 4 discusses the evaluation workshop. Section 5 contains some early observations made in the context of three demonstrator projects that will serve as initial validation of the characteristics.

2

What are Trusted-Trade-lanes?

In general, why do people obey the law? Economic approaches to regulation assume that parties calculate what is in their best interest. A violation may lead to a sanction, so the decision to violate a norm is made on the basis of the expected likelihood of being caught and the severity of the sanction. However, experimental research shows that subjects are more than economic agents [START_REF] Gneezy | A Fine is a Price[END_REF]. Citizens, or companies for that matter, have all kinds of additional motivations to obey the law: economic, social, ethical but also practical. An important practical aspect concerns the costs of compliance. New regulatory approaches try to reduce costs of compliance, based on the idea that for a subject to be compliant, he or she must (i) know the regulations, (ii) must be willing and (iii) must be able to comply, see OECD [START_REF]Regulatory Enforcement and Inspections: OECD Best Practice Principles for Regulatory Policy[END_REF]. For this reason, much effort has been put into making it easier to be compliant, for instance by reducing complexity of regulations, or introducing a single-window [START_REF] Wimmer | Integrated Service Modelling for Online One-stop Government[END_REF]. In the remainder of this section we briefly review literature on regulatory supervision, that is relevant to the regulatory approach adopted by customs administrations. Self-regulation. The regulator has delegated some regulatory tasks to the party being regulated: setting the norm, implementing the norm, and monitoring [START_REF] Rees | Self Regulation: an effective alternative to direct regulation by OSHA?[END_REF]. Only a kind of meta-supervision, to test whether the company is indeed 'in control' remains. Self-regulation makes sense when the interests of the company are aligned with those of society, for example in work safety regulations, where companies also benefit from a reduced number of accidents. This also holds for security in international trade.

Responsive regulation. The regulator has a choice how to respond to subject behavior. The response (e.g. education, feedback, warning, penalty) is based on the specific compliance behavior of the party being regulated [START_REF] Ayres | Responsive Regulation: Transcending the Deregulation Debate[END_REF], page 35. For instance, incidental violations may lead to a warning, but do not immediately lead to a penalty. Repeated violations, however, do lead to sanctions. They show a breach of trust.

Risk-based regulation. The regulatory response takes the risk for society into account [START_REF] Black | Really Responsive Risk-based Regulation[END_REF]. A higher risk leads to a more severe response. For example, in the customs domain, risk assessments determine whether a container will be selected at the border for scanning or for physical inspection. The assessments are based on data from the Entry Summary Declaration (ENS), which must be filed by the carrier 24 hours before loading the goods at the port of departure.

System-based regulation. This type of regulatory supervision takes the entire system of controls into account that influence the processes and systems that generate the behavior [START_REF] May | Regulatory regimes and accountability[END_REF]. This approach is opposed to transaction-based supervision, commonly used for fiscal matters and therefore also for many customs supervision tasks. A particular example of system-based supervision in the supply chain domain is the self-assessment and review procedure to obtain the AEO certificate (see below), but it is also common for supervising specific customs licenses, like a bonded warehouse. Such licenses are only granted after a full IT audit of the relevant systems, processes and organizational measures.

Customs supervision: mixed methods

These regulatory approaches from the literature are rather abstract. How can these be combined into a practical approach? The key is to distinguish different categories of subjects, or in this case, different streams of goods, and treat each of these differently. The Netherlands Customs Administration has laid down its vision on regulatory supervision for the future [START_REF]Pushing boundaries: The Customs Administration of The Netherlands' point on the horizon for the enforcement on continuously increasing flows of goods[END_REF], also visible on Youtube. Figure 1 shows a screenshot. The customs administration already makes use of mixed regulatory methods. For all streams, a combination of administrative checks, physical inspections, and X-ray scanning is used, but the relative proportion of methods depends on the type of trader. This is illustrated in Figure 1. White dots show information. On the basis of prearrival data, the stream of goods is separated into three kinds.

-Blue: unknown trader (traditional). Only origin and goods description are known.

Mostly physical inspections and additional X-ray scans. Administrative verification for fiscal matters. Note that physical checks are more resource intensive and typically lead to logistics disruptions and delays. -Green: trusted trader (AEO since 2007; customs licenses). Mostly administrative verifications, with occasional audits or physical inspections to verify reliability. -Yellow: trusted trade lane (future). Mostly administrative verification of data from supply chain visibility platforms (data pipeline). Occasional audits or inspections to verify reliability.

On trust and control

Supply chain parties collaborate in a network. Parties depend on each other. Parties must therefore trust each other. Trust is originally seen as a personal attitude or characteristic of a person (trustor) towards another person (trustee), but it can also be attributed to an organization [START_REF] Mayer | An integrative model of organizational trust[END_REF]. Here we will follow the economic literature, which defines trust as "the willingness of a party to be vulnerable to the actions of another party based on the expectation that the other party will perform a particular action important to the trustor, irrespective of the ability to monitor or control that other party" [START_REF] Mayer | An integrative model of organizational trust[END_REF] p 712. Trustworthiness, on the other hand, depends on properties of the trustee. Traditionally these properties are ability, integrity, and benevolence [START_REF] Gefen | Reflections on the Dimensions of Trust and Trustworthiness among Online Consumers[END_REF].

How can parties improve their trustworthiness? They have to signal that they possess these properties. But what is the value of a signal from the trustee itself? This explains the need for an independent auditor to assess reliability of reports. To do so an auditor requires certain precautions built into the organization, processes and information systems: internal controls [START_REF]Internal Control -Integrated Framework[END_REF]. Consider for example segregation of duties, an audit trail, access control, baseline security, supervision and monitoring, etc. In practice an auditor -or customs officer -must verify whether the system of internal controls of a company is adequate to meet the risks in that line of business, whether it has been properly implemented and has been operationally effective for the duration of the period under investigation. Only under such conditions, the regulator may rely on the records of the company. This suggest a form of self-regulation, where the internal controls are specified, implemented and monitored by the company. Only a form of meta-supervision remains for the regulator [START_REF] Burgemeestre | Value-based Argumentation for Justifying Compliance[END_REF]. The reason is that controls are highly context dependent. A regulator cannot specify beforehand precisely which controls are necessary in, say, the petrochemical industry.

Whitepaper Trade Compliance

Network Trade Compliance page 15 December 2014

Customs use four main sources of information in their "Intelligence cycle". The declaration data (ENS, import/export declaration, exit manifest) holds the basic information for Customs. Additional information and knowledge is gathered about commodities, traders and supply chains based on history, knowledge of goods, other (partner) government agencies and business data such as shipment information. The gathered information is used for risk analysis.

Source: Heijmann/Hesketh 2014

Based on all the gathered information, the logistic supply chains are divided in 3 colours, Green, Yellow and Blue. The green traders are the so-called Trusted Traders. Traders are classified to the Green lane based on the risk analysis and the knowledge about those traders. These traders are known to the Customs organisation and are AEO Certified. Traders in the Yellow lane are trusted traders just like the Green traders but they form a chain of trusted traders in a whole supply chain or lead the whole global supply chain. They take a pro-active approach towards compliance by leading or support various research projects (supply chain visibility, high quality data exchange etc.), and they actively work together with government agencies or invest in technological solutions for dataexchange. The Blue traders are the so-called "Unknown Traders". These unknown traders are not AEO certified, don't have a known pro-active approach to compliance and/or are in that sense unknown to government agencies. This enforcement vision enables Customs to focus more on the goods and traders that have a higher risk of incompliance.

The proportion of physical checks and verification of document based on the risk analysis is much lower for the yellow lane; the green lane is next and finally the blue lane traders. Also the intervention in logistics is different, as physical inspections in the green lane are not only less than in the blue lane, but also carried out at more logical moments and places, preferably at destinations, in the supply chain. In the yellow lane the compliance is assured at point of loading.

Trusted Trader

A trusted trader is a trading company that is officially recognized by the authorities to be trustworthy. The concept was made popular by the SAFE framework of standards, that is influential in customs supervision [START_REF] Wco | SAFE framework of standards to secure and facilitate global trade (version 2015)[END_REF]. In principle, distinguishing trusted from non-trusted traders allows the regulator to redirect its efforts to those subjects, which pose a higher risk to society. In return, the trusted trader may expect benefits in terms of reduced administrative burden (less inspections; less uncertainty). A well-known example is the AEO framework that operates in the European Union since 2007 [START_REF] Ec | European Commision[END_REF]. To become Authorized Economic Operator (AEO), a company must demonstrate the following properties: customs compliance, appropriate recordkeeping, financial solvency and, where relevant, appropriate security and safety standards. Similar initiatives exist elsewhere, such as Australia, or the US CTPAT.

Countries have developed different ways of granting AEO status. For example, the CTPAT scheme in the US is based on inspections with detailed checklists. Initially, The Netherlands and Sweden were among the few countries that opted for a selfassessment of the risks and controls, followed by an audit. However, the UCC, the upcoming new customs legislation, has now also adopted the self-assessment model. Moreover, AEO status will now be a necessary requirement to obtain other customs simplifications. One could say that the AEO initiative is relatively successful. For example, in 2014 AEO operators were involved in 54% of imports, 68% of exports and in 54% of transits 1 . Is that enough to meet the regulatory challenges of today?

There have also been complaints about AEO. For example, the European Shippers Council (ESC) filed a manifesto (July 2014), to express dissatisfaction with the way the AEO framework is being operated. The perception is that there are not enough benefits in terms of trade facilitation and reduced administrative burden to counter the investments in internal controls. There is no legal certainty attached to the certificate.

Challenges for supply chains

The trusted trader concept is directed to individual companies. However, companies cannot solve the risks and challenges that face international supply chains by themselves. Some form of public-private collaboration is necessary [START_REF] Klievink | The collaborative realization of public values and business goals[END_REF].

-Supply chain visibility concerns awareness of and control over end-to-end goods movements in supply chains -including insight in sources of data and whereabouts of goods -enabling agile, resilient, sustainable as well as compliant and trusted supply chains [START_REF] Wieland | The influence of relational competencies on supply chain resilience: A relational view[END_REF]. Stakeholders may have limited control over endto-end movements. They may have outsourced tasks or only contribute to part of the chain. Supply chain visibility can be achieved by sharing sensor data (e.g. using Internet of things [START_REF] Brous | Advancing e-Government Using the Internet of Things: A Systematic Review of Benefits[END_REF]), and by sharing data extracted from trade documents. It requires uniform semantics. A particular approach to achieve data visibility is the vision of a data pipeline [START_REF] Klievink | Enhancing Visibility in International Supply Chains: The Data Pipeline Concept[END_REF]. -Sustainability. Collaboration in a supply chain was always motivated by the economic need not to waste resources [START_REF] Beske | Putting sustainability into supply chain management[END_REF]. Later environmental and social concerns were added as objectives in their own right. Collaboration is necessary to achieve these objectives. Consider the carbon footprint of a product. Efforts to reduce transport emissions are useless if production produces ten times as much.

In order to detect and address inefficiencies, information needs to be shared. -Supply chain resilience. Resilience is the ability of a supply chain to respond to disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly [START_REF] Ouabouch | Supply Chain Resilience[END_REF] By collecting data with respect to the environment and subscribe to particular events signaled by external providers, an organization will be able to take proper mitigation measures. In general, resilience also requires a way to handle dependencies and reduce complexity. For instance, try to do things locally if possible [START_REF] Helbing | Globally networked risks and how to respond[END_REF]. Note that information sharing and supply chain visibility also contribute to solutions of the other challenges. Parties need to communicate to overcome these challenges.

Characterizing Trusted trade-lanes

What makes a trusted trade lane? What are the essential characteristics? First, the notion of a trusted trade lane is an extension of the trusted trader concept. If we extrapolate on the current practice of assessing and granting AEOs, we can expect a focus on risk and controls, self-assessment and audits. In particular, there are two kinds of controls that matter in the customs domain. (a) Physical controls are needed to secure the goods. Essentially, customs supervision is about integrity of the flow of goods [START_REF] Wco | SAFE framework of standards to secure and facilitate global trade (version 2015)[END_REF]. Measures must be taken to prevent adding goods to the flow (smuggle) or taking goods out (theft). Consider for example container security devices (CSD), RFID devices to establish a causal chain between the goods and their records, or a secure consolidation point as part of the logistics operations. (b) Administrative controls are needed to make sure customs can rely on the records. Compare the objective of 'appropriate record keeping' for AEO. Consider for example a data visibility infrastructure, which provides access to data from packing list, pro-forma invoice, purchase order, certificates, etc. [START_REF] Klievink | Enhancing Visibility in International Supply Chains: The Data Pipeline Concept[END_REF].

Second, the notion involves an entire trade lane, so a group of companies which collaborate together. For this reason, the stability of the collaboration itself affects trust [START_REF] Mayer | An integrative model of organizational trust[END_REF], see also [START_REF] Klievink | The collaborative realization of public values and business goals[END_REF]. Parties who invest in a trade lane, depend on each other. We expect that members will also have to be individually trustworthy.

Third, the task of implementing controls to mitigate global supply chain risks creates a fundamental challenge, as traditionally controls are internal and are the responsibility of central management, and do not cover inter-organizational aspects [START_REF] Kartseva | Towards a Modelling Tool for Designing Control Mechanisms in Network Organisations[END_REF]. In practice, under this view, a trade lane requires some governance structure, to identify risks and assign controls to mitigate those risks to specific partners. There is not much literature on distributing risks and controls in networks, except for [START_REF] Van Wijk | Assurance in Collaborative ICT-enabled Service Chains[END_REF].

Moreover, because being part of a trusted trade lane will have legal consequences (e.g. benefits in reduced inspections) it is likely that some party will have to act as legal representative of the trade lane, for instance to request to be recognized as such. Some party will also need to do secretarial duties, record which partners have entered and have left, and help to collect revenues, distribute costs, and generally organize and assign tasks, such as internal and external communication.

Thus we identify three essential characteristics of a trusted trade-lane. These properties must be demonstrated, for a trade lane to be considered trustworthy.

(1) Members are known and individually trustworthy.

(2) There is long-term and stable collaboration among members, motivated by a viable business proposition, and coordinated by a governance structure that provides a party who can act as legal representative. (3) There is an adequately designed, well implemented and operationally effective system of control measures to ensure (a) physical integrity of the goods, and (b) reliable trade data, to be made available to the authorities.

Scenarios

It is unknown in which way trade lanes will choose to demonstrate to the regulator that they are trustworthy. An analogy can be dawn with the early days of the AEO initiative, in 2007, when no guidelines were given on how to adopt the requirements. We envision various scenarios. Some scenarios are based on formal controls, whereas other scenarios could be based on data analytics to analyze behavior and establish trustworthiness empirically. In practice, there will probably be mixtures of both. Dominant party scenario. In many industries, a commercially dominant party drives innovation by forcing its suppliers to adopt specific technologies. Such a player can take the role of supply chain orchestrator and can act as representative for a trade lane. Steinfield et al [START_REF] Steinfield | Through a Glass Clearly: Standards, Architecture, and Process Transparency in Global Supply Chains[END_REF] call this a private coordination hub.

Suppose a manufacturer extends its efforts of supplier selection to also include customs compliance, in additional to usual selection criteria like cost and product quality. The data that needs to be shared to make this happen is also used for risk analysis by customs and other regulators (piggy backing) [START_REF] Klievink | IT-Enabled Resilient, Seamless and Secure Global Supply Chains[END_REF]. In this case, the business case is based on that of the dominant party. As suppliers are dependent, they have to follow. The information technology is expected to be proprietary.

Data-driven scenario. Partners innovate their supply chain and logistics operations by implementing technology that allows them to collaborate and share data reliably, facilitated by a platform that acts as a kind of information broker. Consider a kind of Uber or AirBnB for logistics services. There is a commercial reason to join the platform, for example to reduce uncertainty and delays. In this way a network of small specialist companies can jointly offer sophisticated services. Steinfield et al [START_REF] Steinfield | Through a Glass Clearly: Standards, Architecture, and Process Transparency in Global Supply Chains[END_REF] call this a shared coordination hub. Data from the platform can be re-used for regulatory purposes (piggy backing) [START_REF] Klievink | IT-Enabled Resilient, Seamless and Secure Global Supply Chains[END_REF]. The host of the platform acts as a legal representative, or helps to elect a representative.

The controls to make the network trustworthy are embedded in the business model of each stakeholder and in that of the platform host; they are not added for the sake of regulatory compliance. Collaboration can be relatively dynamic, with parties entering and leaving the network as they see fit. Because of this dynamics, the software applications for information exchange can only be built on open standards.

Cooperative scenario. Supply chain partners collaborate with each other and with public agencies to improve compliance and reduce administrative burden. Trust is based on acquaintance. Formal agreements are drawn up at a later stage. Business cases are developed, but are based on estimates only. Subsidies may be necessary to overcome an initial hurdle. Technology for information exchange only follows after the agreements have been made, and is therefore likely proprietary.

For example, imagine a cooperative (such as the Flora Holland flower auction house) acting as representative. Member firms are legally independent of the cooperation, but Flora Holland can offer 'assurance' services to its members, and may make membership conditional on certain requirements. Flora Holland would have substantial influence over its members; enough to warrant increased trustworthiness.

These scenarios are characterized by different organizational structures of power or influence (Figure 2). For example, we foresee a hierarchical, peer-to-peer, or a hybrid membership topology. In each case, different kinds of partners will act as a representative. For example, the dominant partner scenario will have a hierarchical topology, with a clear representative, who is also in a position to distribute risks and controls. By contrast, the data-driven scenario has a peer-to-peer topology. There is no dominant partner, and whoever acts as representative is elected. The cooperative scenario has a structure of membership that implies influence, but no formal power.

Evaluation Workshop

In order to discuss what constitutes a trusted trade-lane we organized a workshop, held in the context of a meeting of the European project CORE [START_REF] Klievink | IT-Enabled Resilient, Seamless and Secure Global Supply Chains[END_REF]. It was held in Leiden on 9 December 2015. The audience consisted of about 20 participants, including representatives from businesses, branch organizations, research institutes and several customs authorities; all were experts on safety and security for international supply chains. An introductory text was distributed among participants with two questions to be discussed in small groups.

(1) How do you define a trusted trade lane? Mention five essential characteristics that make a trade lane trustworthy, to commercial partners and the authorities. (2) You are working on a specific case. Please consider how your approach helps to demonstrate that a trade lane is to be trusted. Although there was limited time, groups were actively discussing. In response to question 1, the groups suggested characteristics. All of the mentioned characteristics can be seen as rephrases of the characteristics (1)-(3) above. For example, several groups listed supply chain visibility, which corresponds to 3(b). In response to question 2 several practical suggestions were made, which also helped to further detail the scenarios explained above. In particular, suggestions were made about dealing with risk and control in networks. Groups were actively discussing the notion of a trusted trade-lane and the expected advantages and disadvantages. The following issues were raised in the discussion.

Issue 1. What trade facilitation will be given to a trusted-trade lane? There is already some dissatisfaction among shippers about the current AEO framework, witness the ESC Manifesto (July 2014). The customs response to this concern, was that a trusted trade-lane should first of all be trustworthy for commercial reasons, because there is a business proposition in being more reliable. Once established, a trusted trade-lane can be recognized by the customs authorities as such, and once demonstrated, reliability can be translated into reduced inspections.

Issue 2. Talking about supply chain visibility requires a common understanding of the way a supply chain is functioning. We have to consider the fundamentals of supply chains, so that standards can be agreed on to share information. Syntactic interoperability is not enough; it also concerns the meaning and practical usage of the data. In addition, we need to standardize how to define and assess risks.

Issue 3. Extrapolating from experiences with the AEO initiative, we expect that the recognition process of a trusted trade lane will be a kind of dialogue between businesses and customs. In this process businesses need guidance on what is expected, otherwise there will be no level playing field. The response by customs was that it is too early for guidance. First companies must take the initiative and develop best practices. We must find out what the characteristics of a trusted trade-lane are.

Issue 4. Do we really need a legal representative and what does it mean to be a representative? Participants agreed that the representative would not have to be legally liable for what members of the trusted trade-lane are doing, but must be responsible in some sense. For example, Flora Holland are not officially importing the goods; the growers do. However, as a cooperative they can take some responsibility for their members. Note in this respect that they import under DDP or CIF incoterms.

Issue 5. To be trustworthy as a trade lane, it is crucial to reduce variability. Delays can be handled, as long as they can be predicted. Variability leads to unpredictability and uncertainty. Reducing variability has large additional benefits, which may be the dominant business driver for a trusted trade lane.

Observations from Demonstrator Projects

In this section we describe three initiatives to develop supply chain visibility infrastructures, which are studied as demonstrators or living labs in the CORE project [START_REF] Klievink | IT-Enabled Resilient, Seamless and Secure Global Supply Chains[END_REF]. The demonstrators can be seen as cases of potential trusted trade lanes.

In general, the case study method makes sense when research is exploratory and the phenomenon investigated is intertwined with the context [START_REF] Yin | Case study research: Design and methods[END_REF]. That is the case here. The cases were selected by convenience: from a total of nine demonstrator work packages we selected active demonstrators where we have access to informants. Note that demonstrators in a large EU project are a kind of subsidized experiments. Properties of collaboration in a project may differ from purely commercial initiatives. Nevertheless, the technical and governance issues that need to be tacked are the same.

Data was collected by participating observation, as the authors are also part of the CORE consortium, and by lengthy unstructured interviews with key participants. In particular, we spoke with representatives of the Netherlands Customs Administration.

Earlier we noted that supply chain visibility is a prerequisite for solving other supply chain challenges, besides customs compliance. That is why these supply chain visibility initiatives are indeed potential cases of emerging trusted trade lanes. We look in particular at three of the essential characteristics of a trusted trade lane:

(1) governance structure, (2) business model and reason to collaborate, (3) IT infrastructure. At this stage in the project, it is too early to say much about the controls for physical integrity and data reliability and how these are to be achieved.

Case 1. SIP. This case is about the Shipping Information Pipeline (SIP), that is developed by MAERSK. The goal is to position SIP as a 'common good' type of connectivity infrastructure: costs will be shared by MAERSK with the other stakeholders, namely the global ocean carriers, global terminal operators and even freight forwarders. For such large players, standardization and a common infrastructure to share data is potentially very beneficial. (1) Based on the current market position, MAERSK can be seen as a dominant party. We observe a hierarchical structure. However, in the long run, the service could develop into a kind of information broker. (2) Initially, parties will join because MAERSK induces them to do so, but if the platform is successful and becomes a de facto standard, there will be additional business reasons to join. (3) The information technology is based on open standards. However, the data set that will be shared is relatively limited. It will mostly concern data about events, such as data about departure and arrival times, or data about opening and closing the container. So the scope of the project is limited.

Case 2. Flora Holland. This case is about the Flora Holland auction house, which is responsible for several large trade lanes of cut flowers being transported from Kenya to the Netherlands, either by air, or recently also by refrigerated sea container. The pilot project aims to build a customs dashboard for sharing data from official trade documents to facilitate administrative checks and border controls: export declaration, phytosanitary certificate, pro-forma invoice (which contains much of the data required by customs) and various types of event data. (1) Flora Holland is a cooperative, who want to offer new services to their members, the growers. Hence we find a membership structure. There are also contractual relations to commercial partners. (2) Members have joined the pilot project because they are curious about the results and because they want good relations with the Netherlands Customs Administration, who actively support the project. In the long run, it is expected that commercial benefits of data visibility may be demonstrated, in particular reduced delays, reduced uncertainty and less administrative burden. (3) The information technology is based on open standards, but needs to be connected to proprietary systems. This is not trivial, as we have to coordinate several regulators (customs and plant protection organizations), each with their own standards and practices.

Case 3. Felixstowe. This case is about a data pipeline initiative that is supporting four different trade-lanes that run through the port of Felixstowe. Members have implemented data-pipeline software and connected their proprietary systems. The initiative started in the CASSANDRA project that preceded CORE, but has now been taken on by commercial players. In particular, the Destin8 port community system has taken the role of information broker. HMRC, the British Customs, have not connected to the data pipelines directly, but do want to link their OneGov at the Border initiative. (1) Currently, we find an ad-hoc power structure, based on the governance of the pilot project, and the emerging information broker role of Destin8. (2) Parties have mainly joined for commercial reasons. In some specific cases commercial benefits of improved data visibility have already been demonstrated. Improved control over the supply chain was said in one case to have resulted in a 30% reduction of supply chain costs. [START_REF] Wco | SAFE framework of standards to secure and facilitate global trade (version 2015)[END_REF] The pipelines are run by separate commercial parties, but they all use the same data model and interoperability standards, based on UN/CEFACT and WCO data model. So here too, standardization is crucial [START_REF] Klievink | The collaborative realization of public values and business goals[END_REF].

Conclusions

In this paper we discuss the concept of a trusted trade lane. Trusted trade lanes will be identified by customs authorities using a system-based approach to regulatory supervision: the entire system of controls in processes, systems and logistics operations is taken into account, including in particular commercially motivated controls. We identified three essential characteristics of a trusted trade-lane: members must be individually trustworthy, there must be a stable collaboration and governance structure, and a system of control measures must ensure physical integrity of the goods and reliable trade data, to be made available to the regulator. We have held an initial evaluation workshop, which confirmed these characteristics, but also raised issues for discussion. In particular, guidance is needed on how to become a trusted trade-lane. Reduction of variability is likely to be a business driver. To arrive at a trusted trade-lane, we envision different scenarios. We consider a dominant party forcing its suppliers to be more reliable, a cooperative providing services for its members, or a data-driven scenario facilitated by a platform.

Elements of these scenarios were also identified in three demonstrator cases, as they are studied in the CORE project. In particular, we find evidence of a hierarchical scenario, and a cooperative scenario. A data-driven scenario may develop from current commercial initiatives for information brokers.

Fig 1 .

 1 Fig 1. Customs Administration of the Netherlands' vision on regulatory supervision.

Fig 2 .

 2 Fig 2. Network topologies: (a) hierarchical, (b) peer to peer, (c) membership

Fact sheet European Union: http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/

Acknowledgments. Thanks to participants of the EU project CORE for their input.


Karin Axelsson
email: karin.axelsson@liu.se

Ulf Melin
email: ulf.melin@liu.se

Malin Granath
email: malin.granath@liu.se

In Search of ICT in Smart Cities -Policy Documents as Idea Carriers in Urban Development

Keywords: smart city, urban development, policy, institutional theory, institutional carriers

This paper explores how policy documents carry and institutionalize smart city ideas from high policy level to concrete policy level in an urban development context. We analyze the national urban development vision for Sweden and documents in a local urban development project in a Swedish city, in order to explore what kind of roles and expectations ICT is given in these documents. We contrast this with views of how social and environmental aspects are discussed in the studied documents. In order to understand and analyze the result we apply the concept of institutional carriers from institutional theory to our findings. Our analysis shows that as carriers of how ICT can contribute to increased sustainability in urban development, the policy documents do not function very well. ICT aspects are not put forth by any policy-making actor, neither on national nor on local level. The notion of institutional carriers helped us understand that without a responsible actor focusing on ICT's role in smart cities, it is easy to forget or lose sight of technology.

Introduction

The smart city concept is often used to emphasize how modern urban planning initiatives use information and communication technology (ICT) to fulfil the goals in sustainable development [START_REF] Alawadhi | Building understanding of Smart City Initiatives[END_REF][START_REF] Angelidou | Smart city policies: A spatial Approach[END_REF][START_REF] Hollands | Will the real smart city please stand up? Intelligent, progressive or entrepreneurial? City: analysis of urban trends, culture, theory, policy[END_REF]. Strategic policy documents and visionary programs are formulated both on international (e.g. in EU), national and local levels. Previous research shows that these kind of smart city policies seem to both black-box ICT and, at the same time, take it for granted [START_REF] Granath | Stakeholders' views on ICT and sustainable development in an urban development project[END_REF]. This may result in a situation where a city misses to develop and use innovative ICT solutions and, thus, becomes less smart. It might not be explicitly mentioned what kind of ICT that is envisioned in plans for a future smart city, but it is concurrently spoken of in a way as if the ICT solution already was in place and ready to use. In reality the situation often is the opposite. Visionary programs do not go into detail about specific ICT solutions, but express positive notions of technology in general terms [e.g . 6]. When the visions are realized in urban development projects other issues which impact sustainability are focused and ICT is reduced to e.g. smart electricity meters or smart alarms. The innovative potential of ICT in urban development is, thus, not fully taken advantage of. In general information systems (IS) literature this problem has been discussed for a long time; "The IT artifact itself tends to disappear from view, be taken for granted, or is presumed to be unproblematic once it is built and installed." [14, p. 121]. As a response to this there is a call to highlight and investigate ICT as an artefact more thoroughly in development and use (ibid.). The smart city context is no exception in this case; a main challenge here is to thoroughly understand ICT in order to find out how humans can utilize it in innovative ways that support participation, interaction, and empowerment in the city [START_REF] Gil-Garcia | Being smart: Emerging technologies and innovation in the public sector[END_REF][START_REF] Hollands | Will the real smart city please stand up? Intelligent, progressive or entrepreneurial? City: analysis of urban trends, culture, theory, policy[END_REF][START_REF] Nam | Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions[END_REF]. Only then we can claim that the city is "smart" in this context.

In this paper we aim to analyze and compare policy documents on two levels; the national urban development vision for Sweden and documents in a local urban development project in a Swedish city. We do this in order to explore what kind of roles and expectations ICT is given in these documents. We contrast this with views of how social and environmental aspects are expressed in the studied documents. The purpose of the paper is to explore how policy documents carry and institutionalize smart city ideas from high policy level to concrete policy level in an urban development project. In order to understand and analyze this we apply the concept of institutional carriers from institutional theory to our findings.

After this introduction, the paper is organized in the following way: In Section Two we discuss previous research on this paper's two theoretical foundations; smart city initiatives and institutional theory. The research approach is reported in Section Three. The findings from our analysis of policy documents are presented in Section Four. In Section Five the findings are discussed in the light of institutional theory. The paper is concluded in Section Six, in which we also make some suggestions about the need for further research efforts in this area.

Theoretical Foundations

This paper focuses on how policy documents carry and institutionalize smart city ideas from national visions to concrete plans in a local urban development project. In this section we discuss previous research on smart city initiatives in order to show societal challenges such urban development projects intend to address. We then give a brief overview of institutional theory, especially focusing on institutional carriers.

Smart City Initiatives

We are experiencing a time with several intertwined mega-trends that impact our lives [START_REF]COM -Communication from the commission: Europe 2020: A European strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth[END_REF]. Climate changes and emission of greenhouse gases are important reasons for taking the climate threats seriously and striving for environmental-friendly solutions in urban development [cf. 18]. The globalization has been on-going for a long time and includes an intense interchange of information, goods and trade, tight links between different parts of the world and interdependent economies [START_REF]COM -Communication from the commission: Europe 2020: A European strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth[END_REF]. Increasing urbanization is another trend; in 2030 the prognosis says that more than half of the world's population will live in cities [23]. Many cities thus grow rapidly which make construction activities and good planning important ways to deal with the increasingly dense cities. The fourth trend, which impacts on smart city development, is digitization [START_REF] Baskerville | Editorial: Reviving the IT in the IS[END_REF][START_REF] Walsham | Are we making a better world with ICTs? Reflections on a future agenda for the IS field[END_REF]. Digitization is discussed in terms of an intensive information flow, communication speed, integration, and digital meetings as complement to, or alternative to physical meetings. The need for a robust and accessible communication infrastructure as a precondition for creating smart cities is highlighted [START_REF] Nam | Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions[END_REF].

Facing all challenges that these mega-trends comprise, the city has been assigned an important role in achieving sustainability [START_REF] Kievani | Reflections on Rio: perspectives on the World Urban Forum 5[END_REF]. The concept of smart cities has been defined as an inclusive framework to "mitigate and remedy current urban problems" [1, p. 40], by focusing on several dimensions of city development such as economy, governance, people, natural environment, and infrastructure [START_REF] Nierotti | Current trends in Smart City Initiatives: Some stylised facts[END_REF]. Caragliu et al. [5, p. 70] argue that a city is smart "when investments in human and social capital and traditional (transport) and modern (ICT) communication infrastructure fuel sustainable economic growth and a high quality of life, with a wise management of natural resources, through participatory governance". It is obvious in both research and policy-making that hope is put on smart cities to solve the above-mentioned problems [START_REF]COM -Communication from the commission: Europe 2020: A European strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth[END_REF].

Several researchers have discussed what constitutes a smart city. Hollands [START_REF] Hollands | Will the real smart city please stand up? Intelligent, progressive or entrepreneurial? City: analysis of urban trends, culture, theory, policy[END_REF] argues that in order to be successful a smart city must focus on humans and understand how they interact, instead of just hoping that ICT by itself will transform and improve cities. A similar argument is found in Nam and Pardo [START_REF] Nam | Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions[END_REF] who emphasize the need of a socio-technical view of the smart city. They pinpoint a smart city's main components as technology factors, human factors, and institutional factors. In order to understand smart city development we need to understand the relation between technology, people and policy, and how these interact with outer factors such as governance, economy, built infrastructure, and natural environment [START_REF] Alawadhi | Building understanding of Smart City Initiatives[END_REF]. Building on this notion of several interacting aspects that together define a smart city, we will focus on social, environmental and ICT aspects when analyzing policy documents in urban development, below.

Institutional Theory and Institutional Carriers

Institutional theory, or new institutionalism [START_REF] Powell | The new institutionalism in organizational analysis[END_REF], in institutions and organizations [e.g. 20] is powerful when studying the complex nature of ICT, institutional forms, its embeddedness in contexts and understanding change [START_REF] Robey | Accounting for the Contradictory Organizational Consequences of Information Technology: Theoretical Directions and Methodological Implications[END_REF]. The smart city is an example of a context where we find this kind of complexity [START_REF] Nam | Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions[END_REF]. Institutions are structural arrangements that guide and restrict actors' behaviour [START_REF] Berger | The social construction of reality -A treatise in the sociology of knowledge[END_REF]. Important dimensions in institutionalism can be expressed as three pillars both representing and supporting institutions; regulative, normative, and cultural-cognitive [START_REF] Scott | Institutions and Organizations, 2nd Edition[END_REF][START_REF] Scott | Institutions and organizations, 4th Edition[END_REF].

Studying ICT within an institutional framework can be motivated by the fact that ICT have a directive power within institutions and institutionalization that can be traced back to the cognitive and normative elements embedded in ICT artefacts [START_REF] Gosain | Enterprise Information Systems as Objects and Carriers of Institutional Forces: The New Iron Cage?[END_REF]. The three pillars above can be summarized as follows. The regulative pillar contains the constraints and regulation of behaviour; setting and formulating rules, monitoring and sanctioning such activities (e.g. to arrange rules, to follow or monitor rule compliance, rewards or even punishments). The normative pillar contains values and norms. This includes what is preferred or desirable and the assessment of such aspects. Norms express how things should be done and is the core of legitimacy and the means to reach certain objectives [START_REF] Scott | Institutions and organizations, 4th Edition[END_REF]. The cultural-cognitive element as the third pillar rests heavily on sociology and organizational studies. Symbols are important and expressed in terms of signs, gestures, and words shaping collective and individual understanding in institutions (ibid.).

The pillars and elements above are carried in institutions by different vehicles [START_REF] Scott | Institutional Carriers: Reviewing Modes of Transporting Ideas over Time and Space and Considering their Consequences[END_REF]. Carriers are tightly linked to every aspect of the pillars and can be understood and analyzed for example in terms of symbolic systems carrying: regulative elements (e.g. rules in smart city development regarding buildings and infrastructures), normative elements (e.g. values and expectations of ICT in a smart city on a conceptual level), and cultural-cognitive elements (e.g. categories and typifications of ICT or smartness in policy documents). Relational systems can also carry regulative elements (e.g. governance structures and power systems), normative elements, and cultural-cognitive ditto. Activities as a third type of carrier are also a vehicle for regulative, normative, and cultural-cognitive elements. Last but not least, artefacts (like ICT) can have a role as vehicles for all three types of elements. All carriers are non-neutral and carry the values, preferences, and social constructions given to or implemented in them.

Research Approach

We have followed and studied a Swedish local urban development project in a qualitative and interpretative case study [START_REF] Walsham | Doing interpretive research[END_REF] for almost two years and have, thus, gained detailed understanding of the early phases of the project (from its launch to the municipality's local plan decision). In this paper we focus on the qualitative and discursive analysis [START_REF] Parsons | Public Policy: An Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Policy Analysis[END_REF][START_REF] Potter | Discourse and Social Psychology: Beyond Attitudes and Behaviour[END_REF][START_REF] Yanow | Accessing local knowledge[END_REF] of policy documents on different levels; a national vision of sustainable urban development as well as several policy documents that are important in the studied development project. By analyzing how social, environmental, and ICT aspects are expressed and formulated in the documents we illustrate how smart city ideas and ideals are transferred and "flow" between documents representing different phases in a development project -from a strategic and overall level to a more operative and local level. At the same time we acknowledge the deliberate and network-oriented perspective on policy-making and policy processes as being more "messy" and less linear than they usually appear on a strategic level, and also carried by human actors. As information systems and egovernment researchers we focus extra on how ICT is described because of the identified risk that ICT is taken for granted and not problematized, as discussed above, in previous studies.

The studied urban development project was launched in late 2011. We have studied the project during the phases of architect competition, exhibition, planning, exploitation, procurement, and local plan decision (see Figure 1 below). The project aims to build a new district and organize a home and urban construction expo in parallel. Social and ecologic sustainability are two dimensions that are much emphasized in the project. The project shows typical characteristics of the aim of a smart city which makes it suitable to use as an empirical case in this paper. We have collected data about the project through several methods; we have attended internal project meetings and external stakeholder workshops, interviewed stakeholders, and studied documents, such as policy documents, project information material, and project web information. Altogether we have gained rich empirical data about the early phases of the project through different kinds of sources and interventions. In this paper we have a certain focus on policy analysis and other data collected in the project serves, thus, as background information. Here the qualitative data analysis of the policy documents is guided by institutional theory, as we use the concept of institutional carrier as a theoretical lens [START_REF] Walsham | Interpretive case studies in IS research: nature and method[END_REF]. However, our data analysis is also inductive in terms of being sensitive towards the empirical material when identifying and acknowledging interpretations of the overall view from the policy documents and the urban development project.

Analyzing Policy Documents

Five policy documents on different abstraction levels are analyzed below, in order to illustrate how social, environmental and ICT aspects are expressed on different policy levels and possibly transferred between levels (Table 1). The documents are: 1) Vision for Sweden 2025, 2) the idea program of the studied local urban development project, 3) the competition program, 4) the winning design proposal, and 5) the quality program including the local plans.

Studied Policy Documents

In The competition program is based on the idea program and communicates the visions of the future district in order to inspire architects to come up with design proposals for how to realize the project. The view that is conveyed to the architects is the one of a varied district where nature, culture and social activities are in focus. The competition program is written by officers from the municipality in collaboration with representatives from a university, a local energy company, and a housing company.

The winning design proposal was chosen by a jury examining the 27 proposals sent in to the competition. The design proposal explains the architect firm's idea of how to realize the visions of the local district, both in text and illustrations.

The quality program contains the local plans which are developed based on the winning proposal. The program is written to support coordination and design of the district. By expressing the desired character of the district a holistic approach is aimed for. The quality program also stipulates demands, recommendations, and responsibilities concerning sustainability that must be met by the building companies that take part in the project. The document is written by the Environment and Planning Administration in the municipality and it is directed to the building companies as a base for their participation in the land allocation process.

Expressions of Social, Environmental, and ICT aspects

Social aspects could of course include many different issues, but in the vision for physical and social planning in Sweden the main emphasis is put on social development and how to achieve a good life. The expression "places fit for people" is used to describe a future where urban districts include everything needed to work and live there. Such urban districts are described as hubs for development. Extensive public transportation networks and green areas for recreation are two examples of how human needs are focused. Everything should be close by and easy to access, no cars are needed and people should be able to choose a resource-saving lifestyle. Opportunities for social integration and distance-learning are included in this vision. In the idea program these ideas are transferred into "a place for everyone to meet, work, live, and learn". Parks and gardens are also highlighted as places for recreation. The importance of citizen involvement in the planning process is highlighted as a consequence of a main emphasis on achieving social sustainability through this urban development project. In the competition program social aspects are found in the objective to develop a district that is resource efficient, beautiful and human-friendly. In the winning design proposal it is suggested that neighbours share winter gardens. Another design proposal relating to social aspects is that community houses, where people can meet and interact, should be built. In the quality program these design ideas are realized in form of a community house and a green house in every block. We also find demands for the building companies regarding outdoor lightening, easy access to nature, and the use of health-friendly materials.

Many of the above-mentioned examples of social aspects also have a connection to environmental aspects. In the vision for physical and social planning in Sweden we see the call for efficient public transport infrastructure and decreased motor traffic in the urban district as examples of ways to encourage and support an overall resourcesaving lifestyle. A strive for increased energy efficiency and a fossil-free electrical energy system are other highlighted goals. In the idea program this is translated to innovations in energy effective buildings, locally produced electricity, and sustainable construction material. Environmental aspects are thus discussed in rather general terms. However, in the competition program it is stated that the district should make it easy for the individual to act climate smart. In order to emphasize the environmental aspects bikes and public transportation should be prioritized instead of cars. The goal is to build a dynamic and robust environment that should be sustainable and easy to adjust to new demands. In the winning design proposal this is converted into a car pool and electric car charging stations together with good public transportation. Another idea is that the residents should grow vegetables locally and, thus, decrease the need for transportation. By building for densified, close living energy efficiency will increase and a CO 2 neutral district is aimed to be a reality in 2025. In the quality program we see how these ideas are formulated in a planning that supports walking, biking and public transportation. Car pools are suggested and parking by houses is not allowed. Smart meters are installed in all houses and electricity surplus should be possible to deliver to the power grid.

ICT aspects are treated in rather general terms in the vision for physical and social planning in Sweden. It is stated that communication infrastructure is a robust precondition for services and information flows, and that e-services are important tools to connect citizens and public sector agencies. Mobile devices are also mentioned as important in order to communicate both in cities and in rural areas. In the idea program this is described as smart and innovative ICT solutions which should be used in order to decrease consumption of natural resources. Another effect of using ICT should be increased availability, service and social presence. In the competition program this is concretized to mobile solutions that will enable people to work at home, in cafés and public places. It is also mentioned that smart grid technology should be implemented. The winning design proposal suggests that smart grid technology should be used in the district in order to enable both energy production and consumption. In the quality program ICT aspects are not explicitly mentioned at all. The concept "climate smart" is mentioned, but it is not stated what constitutes smartness in this case. When comparing the main view of ICT in the analyzed documents a picture arises where the high level policy starts with discussing ICT in broad terms. We see traces of digitization in the intelligent home where smart energy use is in focus. When turning to the concrete policy level and the idea program, which is the most visionary document among the project documents, we find an explicit ambition to build a climate smart district. However, neither in the idea program nor in the competition program ICT solutions are explicitly mentioned. The winning design proposal states that smart electricity meters will be implemented in the buildings. Finally in the quality program (local plans) ICT is not mentioned at all. This is a clear example of the situation we described in the beginning of this paper; that ICT aspects are neglected, taken for granted or seen as so unproblematic that they do not need to be commented on. In Table 1 above, the found expressions of social, environmental, and ICT aspects in the studied documents are summarized.

Discussion

From this analysis of policy documents we find that rather few ICT solutions and innovations are expressed in high level policies and even fewer seem to survive during the transfer to concrete policy level. Instead, sustainability solutions are dominating when we come closer to the concrete urban development project. The ICT dimension of smartness does not reach out the entire way, and instead smart resource use, without ICT, ends up being in focus. The policy documents do not offer any new visions or ideas when it comes to ICT innovation. Of course we should not regard ICT as an end in itself, but it is definitely an important means to create and realize the visions of the smart city [START_REF] Alawadhi | Building understanding of Smart City Initiatives[END_REF][START_REF] Hollands | Will the real smart city please stand up? Intelligent, progressive or entrepreneurial? City: analysis of urban trends, culture, theory, policy[END_REF][START_REF] Nam | Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions[END_REF]. There might be many reasons for this situation to arise. In the studied policy documents there seem to exist several, partly competing, values such as social sustainability, inclusion, integration and ecological sustainability. ICT is not put forth by any policy-making actor or framework of rules, etc. Furthermore, it seems as the building industry has a rather conservative view of ICT (because of rules and regulations, but also organizational and professional culture), thus, the ICT aspects of smartness seem to be neglected or reduced to existing technologies (e.g. smart grid and smart meters) in the local plans.

From an institutional theory perspective [START_REF] Scott | Institutions and organizations, 4th Edition[END_REF] we identify that important pillars and elements are carried in different ways and by different expressions and actors in the studied policy documents. There are several rules regarding how to plan and build that are present in different stages of the policy process, and the plans that are expressed in the studied documents. Rules are regulative and constraints what is possible to do in a formal plan and building process (regarding e.g. compulsory and necessary steps to be taken as a part of an institutional process). Normative elements are also present affecting what is to be considered as legitimate and desirable. It is also expressed in terms of values of sustainability (e.g. environmental aspects in Table 1 above) in all types of documents analyzed above. Environmental aspects are part of the core of legitimizing the smart city and the means to reach certain objectives [cf. 22]. These elements travel all the way through the policy documents, as stated above, and are an evident part of the policy-making from national strategies to the local project. Cultural-cognitive elements in the form of symbols are evident here, since words carry different ideals, such as sustainability in ecological or social terms. These elements are also carried by several strong actors, who make them "survive" throughout the process together with activities in the same line. Social aspects, in Table 1 above, are also carried throughout the process and expressed as what is preferred and/or desirable. Normative elements are clear regarding e.g. the community ideal, interaction and integration. Those ideals are also carried by symbols (words) and significant actors in the studied project.

When analyzing the policy documents also from an institutional point of view, we identity that values and norms regarding ICT artefacts are not that evident. ICT is not a significant part of the prefix smart at any level or setting in the studied documents. There are ideals and meaning of ICT being part of a communication infrastructure, a carrier of services, and a precondition for mobile solution on a general and national policy level, but these ideals and ideas are not that evident in documents throughout the process, and not carried further in a clear and convincing way. The visionary ideas, or to put it in other words, the ICT edge is lost. There are signs of ICT being a part of grids and mobile applications, but more as one means among others, to achieve e.g. sustainability. ICT is not an objective or significant artefact that constitutes the smart concept. The analysis reveals that the local policy documents are dominated by values and norms connected to the building process and strong actors in this field carrying those ideal, rather than ICT related relational system structures (e.g. strong governance structures or power systems supporting ICT as an important aspects in a smart city project). This goes in line with the underpinning from the institutional perspective and the perspective in this study, that all carriers are non-neutral and carry the values, preferences, and social constructions given to or implemented in them [START_REF] Scott | Institutional Carriers: Reviewing Modes of Transporting Ideas over Time and Space and Considering their Consequences[END_REF][START_REF] Scott | Institutions and organizations, 4th Edition[END_REF].

Activities, as another carrier, do not support ICT as a key component of the smart city concept in the development process. In that sense ICT is overruled by other values and norms as a part of a policy process dominated by environmental and social aspects (Table 1), not ICT aspects. The ICT related values and norms are not effectively carried throughout the different documents representing the policy process from a strategic level to a local level. Maybe this is not surprising since building processes are highly regulated and institutionalized. The innovative dimension of the smart city concept, however, can be threatened when not using ICT as an active and symbolic element in policy-making processes.

Conclusions

In this paper we have analyzed how five policy documents on different abstraction levels express social, environmental, and ICT aspects connected to the urban development process. The purpose of this study has been to explore how policy documents function to carry and institutionalize smart city ideas from high policy level to concrete policy level in this kind of projects. By applying the theoretical concept of institutional carriers [START_REF] Scott | Institutional Carriers: Reviewing Modes of Transporting Ideas over Time and Space and Considering their Consequences[END_REF][START_REF] Scott | Institutions and organizations, 4th Edition[END_REF] to our findings, we have discussed possible explanations to the fact that social and environmental aspects dominate in the policy documents while ICT aspects are almost non-existing. It is interesting to notice that even though ICT is perceived as an important smart city component in literature [START_REF] Alawadhi | Building understanding of Smart City Initiatives[END_REF][START_REF] Hollands | Will the real smart city please stand up? Intelligent, progressive or entrepreneurial? City: analysis of urban trends, culture, theory, policy[END_REF][START_REF] Nam | Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions[END_REF] it does not have the same prominence neither on high policy level nor on concrete policy level. In this paper we have shown that policy documents carry and institutionalize social and environmental ideas and ideals. However, as carriers of how ICT can contribute to increased sustainability in urban development, the policy documents do not seem to function very well. We have searched for expressions of how ICT is envisioned to support the smart city, but found very little evidence of this. One could expect a leak of ideas during the transfer between policy levels and documents, but if the ICT aspects are not there from the beginning they will not emerge during the process.

An important finding in this study is that the ICT aspects are not put forth by any policy-making actor, neither on national nor on local level. The notion of institutional carriers helped us to see that if no one is responsible for focusing on ICT it is easy to forget or lose sight of technology. Thus, ICT disappears from the view, is taken for granted or underestimated as uncomplicated [START_REF] Orlikowski | Research Commentary: Desperately Seeking the "IT" in IT Research -A Call to Theorizing the IT Artifact[END_REF]. A theoretical contribution is, thus, that researchers need to theorize about the role of ICT artefacts in order to achieve "smartness" in urban development. A practical implication of this is that in order for future urban development projects to reach the high expectations of smart cities solving grand challenges of urbanization, globalization, and climate changes, ICT must be focused. ICT can be used to combine social and environmental aspects in innovative ways and, thus, realize the ideas and ideals of the smart city, but ICT can also be the carrier of such ideas in the smart city context. ICT is not an end in itself, but an important means for realizing the smart city.

Applying institutional theory to empirical data from an urban development project has helped us to discuss policy documents as carriers of smart city ideas in a promising way. In future studies a more thorough analysis of findings from both policy and practice levels would be interesting to conduct in order to further understand the meaning of ICT in smart cities. These studies can also include other regional and national contexts in order to challenge and handle the limitations of studying only one context above.

Figure 1 :

 1 Figure 1: Project development process and related policy documents

  2012, Sweden's National Board of Housing, Building and Planning conducted a strategic analysis, based on existing global analyses, which is reported in "Vision for Sweden 2025" (translated to English in 2014). The purpose of the vision is to present holistic objectives for Sweden's future based on 100 national goals that relate to physical and social planning in different ways. The document has a long term planning perspective and puts physical planning in the foreground; other related issues like social sustainability are in the background and included only if related to the physical social structure. A sustainable society is the major long term objective; i.e. building for environmental care. The document is: "Intended to be used as a conceptual foundation when preparing strategies for sustainable development at different levels." (p. 51) and should be used as inspiration for: "[…] promoting sustainable social development at all levels from national to local" (p. 51). The target group for the vision is politicians and public officials at all levels: from national to local, from central to local agencies and different organizations and private stakeholders.The idea program describes the purpose of the project in order to guide the future work. It rests on three pillars; knowledge, social sustainability, and creativity which should permeate the future local district. The idea program is written by municipality officers and is targeted to anyone interested in the project. The program states the project's visions of future front edge urban development based on citizen dialogue.

Table 1 :

 1 Policy documents' expressions of social, environmental, and ICT aspects

		Vision for	Idea program	Competition	Winning design	Quality program
		Sweden		program	proposal	incl. local plans
	Social	Social	A place for	A resource	Neighbours	A community
	aspects	development	everyone to	efficient,	share winter	house and a
		and a good life	meet, work,	beautiful and	gardens	green house in
		are promoted	live and learn	human-friendly		every block
				district	Community
		Physical spaces	Citizen		houses where	Demands for
		that fit people	involvement		people can meet	outdoor
			in planning		and interact	lightening, access
		Social	process			to nature, and
		integration				health-friendly
			Parks for			materials
			recreation
	Environ-	A sustainable	Innovations	Easy for the	Densified, close	Walking, biking
	mental	environment	in energy	individual to act	living increases	and public
	aspects	with "places fit	effective	climate smart	energy	transportation
		for people",	buildings,		efficiency
		decreased motor	locally	Bicycle and		Car pools, no
		traffic in cities	produced	public	Public	parking by the
		and an overall	electricity,	transportation	transportation	houses
		resource-saving	and	instead of cars
		lifestyle	sustainable		Car pool and	Smart meters
			construction	A dynamic and	charging	installed in all
		Efficient	material	robust	stations	houses
		transport		environment,
		infrastructures		sustainable and	Locally grown	Electricity
				easy to adjust to	vegetables	surplus possible
				new demands	decreases	to deliver to the
					transportation	power grid
					CO 2 neutral
					district 2025
	ICT	Communication	Smart and	Mobile	Smart grid	"Climate smart"
	aspects	infrastructure, a	innovative	solutions to	technology	is mentioned, but
		precondition for	ICT solutions	enable people to	enables both	no technology or
		services and	to decrease	work at home,	energy	ICT aspects are
		information	consumption	in cafés and	production and	explicitly
		flows	of natural	public places	consumption	discussed
			resources and
		E-services -	increase	Smart grid
		connecting e.g.	availability,	technology
		citizens and	service and
		public sector	social
		agencies	presence
		Mobile devices
		for communica-
		tion in cities

Acknowledgements

This study has been financially supported by the Swedish Energy Agency.


Ilia Nouretdinov

Guang Li

Alexander Gammerman

Zhiyuan Luo
email: zhiyuan@cs.rhul.ac.uk

Application of Conformal Predictors to Tea Classification Based on Electronic Nose

Keywords: Tea Classification, Electronic Nose, Conformal Predictors, Support Vector Machines, Pattern Recognition

In this paper, we present an investigation into the performance of conformal predictors for discriminating the aroma of different types of tea using an electronic nose system based on gas sensors. We propose a new non-conformity measure for the implementation of conformal predictors based on Support Vector Machine for multi-class classification problems. The experimental results have shown the good performance of the implemented conformal predictors.

Introduction

Tea is by far the most popular drink consumed in Britain today, with over 165,000,000 cups being drunk in the UK every single day of the year [1]. The major quality attributes of tea are flavour, aroma, colour and strength. Aroma means smell of the tea and is considered as the most important of the attributes. However, characterisation of aroma of tea has been a challenge for tea scientists for long. Tea flavour is traditionally measured through the use of a combination of conventional analytical instrumentation and human or ganoleptic profiling panels. These methods are expensive in terms of time and labour and also inaccurate because of a lack of either sensitivity or quantitative information [START_REF] Dutta | Electronic nose based tea quality standardization[END_REF].

Electronic nose has been successfully used for tea classification and grading [START_REF] Bhattacharyya | Electronic Nose for Black Tea Classification and Correlation of Measurement with "Tea Taster" Marks[END_REF][START_REF] Dutta | Electronic nose based tea quality standardization[END_REF][START_REF] Gonzalez | A Tea Classification Method Based on an Olfactory System Model[END_REF][START_REF] Yu | Discrimination of LongJing green-tea grade by electronic nose[END_REF]. In general, an electronic nose is a smart instrument that is designed to detect and discriminate among complex odours using an array of sensors. The array of sensors is exposed to volatile odour vapour through suitable odour handling and delivery system that ensures constant exposure rate to each of the sensors. The response signals of these sensors are recorded and processed for analysis and classification. For tea classification, we want to discriminate the aroma of different types of tea.

Different data analysis and machine learning methods have been tried to analyse and classify the signals from the sensor array of the electronic nose system. For example, these signals were processed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA), Fuzzy C Means algorithm (FCM), Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method along with a Radial Basis Function network (RBF), Probabilistic Neural Network classifier, Back-Propagation network and Olfactory model [START_REF] Borah | Neural network based on electronic nose for classification of tea aroma[END_REF][START_REF] Dutta | Electronic nose based tea quality standardization[END_REF][START_REF] Gonzalez | A Tea Classification Method Based on an Olfactory System Model[END_REF][START_REF] Tudu | Electronic nose for black tea quality evaluation by an incremental RBF network[END_REF][START_REF] Yang | Tea classification based on artificial olfaction using bionic olfactory neural network[END_REF][START_REF] Yu | Discrimination of LongJing green-tea grade by electronic nose[END_REF]. Good performance has been reported in the literature. However, the learning techniques used can only provide bare predictions, i.e. algorithms predicting labels for new examples without saying how reliable these predictions are. The reliability of a method is often given by measuring general accuracy across an independent test set. Confidence estimation is a well-studied area of both parametric and non-parametric statistics; however, usually only low-dimensional problems are considered.

This paper describes an investigation into the performance of conformal predictors for discriminating the aroma of different types of tea using an electronic nose system. In particular, we study a recently developed theory of algorithmic learning, namely conformal predictors described in [START_REF] Vovk | Algorithmic Learning in a Random World[END_REF]. One of the major advantages of these algorithms is that they can be used for solving high-dimensional problems without requiring any parametric statistical assumptions about the source of data (unlike traditional statistical techniques). The only assumption made is the i.i.d. assumption (the examples are generated from the same probability distribution independently of each other). Another advantage of the method is that it also allows to make estimation of confidence in the classification of individual examples. The remainder of this paper is arranged as follows. We briefly describe conformal predictors and present a new non-conformity measure for the implementation of conformal predictors based on Support Vector Machine for multi-class classification problems in the next section. Section 3 discusses the experiments and results of applying the implemented conformal predictors to tea classification. Finally, Section 4 concludes the paper.

Conformal Prediction

In machine learning problems, we usually work with examples which are pairs z i = (x i , y i ). x i ∈ X is an object, normally represented as a vector and its components (dimensions) are called attributes. y i ∈ Y is its label, which may be real-valued, or taking one of several possible values [START_REF] Duda | Pattern Classification[END_REF]. For the tea classification problem using electronic nose system, x i is a vector of response signals from the sensor array and y i is the finite types of tea.

Let us assume that we are given a training set of l examples {(x 1 , y 1 ), . . . , (x l , y l )}. Our goal is to predict the classifications for testing examples. We make only one assumption (i.i.d.) about the examples: all the examples have been generated independently by some fixed but unknown stochastic mechanism. Suppose that for a new example x l+1 and its corresponding real label y l+1 is unknown, we are interesting in predicting its label. The basic idea behind conformal predictors is to try every possible label y ∈ Y as candidate for the new example and see how well the resulting sequence {(x 1 , y 1 ), . . . , (x l , y l ), (x l+1 , y)} conforms the i.i.d. assumption. If it does, we will say it is "random". The ideal case is where all y ∈ Y but one lead to sequences that are not random and y can be considered as the prediction for x l+1 . The general description of the conformal predictors is given in Algorithm 1 [START_REF] Vovk | Algorithmic Learning in a Random World[END_REF].

In conformal predictors, checking whether a possible new label violates i.i.d. assumption is done by a test for randomness based on a non-conformity (or strangeness) measure α = A(z l+1 , {z 1 , . . . , z l+1 }). This is a measure of disagreement or nonconformity between a finite set (subset of X × Y) and its element. Specific form of this function depends on a particular machine learning algorithm to be used and can be determined for many well-known machine learning algorithm. In this paper, we investigate and propose a non-conformity function for multi-class Support Vector Machine.

Algorithm 1 Conformal Predictor

Input: example sequence {(x1, y1), (x2, y2), . . . , (x l , y l )} Input: new example x l+1 Input(optional): confidence level γ Input: non-conformity measure A for y ∈ Y do z l+1 = (x l+1 , y) for j in 1, 2, . . . , l + 1 do αj = A(zj, {z1, . . . , z l , z l+1 }) end for p(y) = #{j=1,...,l+1:α j ≥α l+1 } l+1 end for Output(optional): predictive set R γ l+1 = {y : p(y) ≥ 1 -γ} Output: forced prediction ŷl+1 = arg maxy{p(y)} Output: confidence conf (ŷ l+1 ) = 1 -max y = ŷl+1 {p(y)} Output: credibility cred(ŷ l+1 = arg maxy{p(y)}
The conformal predictor calculates p(y) which is a p-value associated with a hypothetical completion y l+1 = y for the test example. Using these p-values, predictions made by conformal predictors can be presented in following two ways:

-Either the user inputs a required degree (level) of certainty and the algorithm outputs a predictive set: a list of classifications that meet this confidence requirement. -Or the algorithm outputs so called forced prediction: an individual predictions together with its confidence, which is the minimal level of certainty at which the output is certain (predictive set consists of only one label) and credibility, which indicates whether the test object is representative of the training set, in order to compare with the other conventional learning methods.

The common way of presenting the prediction results is to choose a significance level ("degree of certainty") γ < 1 and output the (γ)-predictive set (region) containing all labels with p-value equal or greater than 1γ:

R γ l+1 = {y : p(y) ≥ 1 -γ} (1)
Prediction errors can occur when the prediction set fails to contain the true label. If the size of the predictive set R γ l+1 is 1 or 0, then this prediction is certain, otherwise it is uncertain and we have multiple predictions. In the context of conformal predictors, uncertain predictions are not errors, but these are indications that the amount of information is not sufficient to make a certain decision at the selected level. Naturally, the higher the confidence level is, the more multiple predictions will appear. If nonconformity measure is specified adequately for the problem at hand, the percentage of uncertain predictions should not be too high. It has been proved that the conformal predictors have validity property [START_REF] Vovk | Algorithmic Learning in a Random World[END_REF][START_REF] Nouretdinov | Criterion of calibration for Transductive Confidence Machine with limited feedback[END_REF] in online mode where the examples are presented one by one. Each time, the predictors take an object to predict its label and then receive feedback of the true label. The validity property implies that the successive predictions will be right 1-ǫ of the time for a given error probability ǫ, even though they are based on an accumulating dataset rather than on independent dataset.

It is important to note that the prediction region of a conformal predictor in online mode is valid for any used non-conformity measure [START_REF] Vovk | Algorithmic Learning in a Random World[END_REF]. However, the quality of prediction depends on the choice of this measure. If it is inappropriate, the confidence in a prediction will be still valid but never high. Thus a non-conformity measure for conformal predictor is usually based on an underlying method of prediction (such as nearest neighbours and Support Vector Machine) which is appropriate enough for the data set.

In the case of finite label space, there is an alternative way to represent the output: single ("forced") prediction and some measure of confidence in this prediction. It does not require the confidence level γ as input. The single prediction is selected by largest p-value. The maximal confidence level (degree of certainty) at which the prediction is certain, is called "confidence". It can be calculated as 1 minus the second largest p-value.

Support Vector Machine

Conformal predictors are a generic framework for making prediction and virtually any classification or regression algorithm can be transformed into a conformal predictor [START_REF] Vovk | Algorithmic Learning in a Random World[END_REF]. In this section, we consider the implementation of conformal predictors on the top of Support Vector Machine. Support Vector Machines (SVM) are effective learning systems based on statistical learning theory and have been applied successfully to many real problems [START_REF] Vapnik | Statistical Learning Theory[END_REF]. For pattern recognition, SVM finds the hyperplane that separates the data set (x 1 , y 1 ), ..., (x l , y l ), x i ∈ R d , y i ∈ {-1, +1} with maximal margin. If the data are not linearly separable one can introduce slack variables (ζ i ) in the optimisation,

min 1 2 w +C l i=1 ζ i (2)
under the constraints y i [(w

• x i ) + b] ≥ 1 -ζ i and ζ i ≥ 0,
where w is a normal vector that is perpendicular to the hyperplane, w b determines the offset of the hyperplane from the origin along the normal vector w and C is a constant chosen a priori. This optimisation problem can then be translated into its corresponding dual problem [START_REF] Vapnik | Statistical Learning Theory[END_REF]

max l i=1 α i - 1 2 n i,j=1 α i α j y i y j K(x i , x j ), (3)
under the constraints, 0 ≤ α i ≤ C, l i=1 α i y i = 0, where K is a kernel function defined by K(x i , x j ) = x i • x j . The Lagrangian α i is assigned to each example in the dual setting of SVM and it is independent on their order. It is positive if the example is a Support Vector (SV), and 0 if it is non-SV. Therefore, these Lagrangian values can be used as non-conformity measure for SVM.

SVMs are inherently two-class classifiers. The common approach to dealing with multi-class SVM is to reduce the multi-class problem into multiple binary classification problems. Then each of the problems can be solved by a binary classifier. In this paper, we propose and use the following non-conformity measure as a tool to link two-class problems together for multi-class classification problems, see Algorithm 2. for j such that yj ∈ {r, s} α SV M (r:s) j = 0 for j such that yj / ∈ {r, s} end for end for αj := maxr,s α SV M (r:s) j

Experiments and Results

Metal Oxide Semiconductor (MOS) sensors are commonly used in electronic nose applications for their convenience in operating and steadiness in features. The MOS gas sensors obtained from Figaro Engineering Inc., Japan (http://www.figaro.co.jp) were used in the experiments. In particular, an array of seven gas sensors: TGS2610, TGS2611, TGS800, TGS813, TGS822, TGS826 and TGS880 were chosen for the tea classification experiments. For illustration purposes, four types of tea which are ready available from the market: Japanese Green Tea (JG), Chinese Green Tea (CG), Indian Black Tea (IB) and Chinese Black Tea (CB) were used and we label them as class 1 to 4, respectively.

Each tea sample is heated before data acquirement. There are 68 data samples in total obtained in the experiments (15 for Indian Black Tea, 19 for Chinese Black Tea, 17 for Chinese Green Tea and 17 for Japanese Green Tea). Each data sample is described by 7 features obtained from those 7 gas sensors of the electronic nose system. A typical sensor response is shown in Figure 1. Originally each of these 7 features was represented as time series and we simply take its maximum value in time for the classification problem. A 4-class SVM conformal predictor as described above (see Algorithm 2) has been implemented and applied to the tea classification dataset in leave-one-out mode. Table 1 shows example individual predictions with sample data presented in random order, where "T" is the true label, p(1) ... p(4) are calculated p-values for different labels, "P" is the forced prediction, "Conf" and "Cred" are the confidence and credibility associated with the forced prediction, respectively. For example, the true label is 4 and the forced prediction is 1 for the 7th sample data. The calculated confidence for the prediction is 0.937 and credibility is 0.222. High (i.e. close to 100%) confidence means that all labels except the predicted one are unlikely. Low credibility means that the whole situation is suspect; perhaps the test example is very different from all examples in the training set. The overall accuracy of forced prediction is 89.7%, as 61 of 68 predictions are correct according to the confusion matrix shown in Table 2. (back-propagation network) and volunteers [START_REF] Yang | Tea classification based on artificial olfaction using bionic olfactory neural network[END_REF]. 30 volunteers were invited to try tea classification. All the volunteers were trained to remember the odour of each kind of tea.

Then they made tea classification by smelling without seeing. Table 3 shows the comparison of forced prediction of conformal predictors with other methods on the same data set. Forced predictions made by conformal predictors have similar performance as those of the KIII model and BP networks. The volunteers performed not so well as the electronic nose, because of some physiological and psychological factors [START_REF] Dutta | Electronic nose based tea quality standardization[END_REF]. The predictive sets for a specific confidence level γ can be derived from the list of p-values by Equation (1). For the confidence level of 80%, 85%, 90% and 95%, the performance (in terms of error rate and multiple prediction rate) of the implemented conformal predictor is shown in Table 4. It is clear that the predictions made by the conformal predictor are valid and uncertainty rate becomes larger as the confidence level grows. Validity is true in the sense that error rate is smaller than 1 minus confidence level. The property of validity means that the conformal predictors never overrate the accuracy and reliability of their predictions. From the practical point of view, they allow us to control the error rate by selecting a suitable confidence level. For example, at 80% confidence level, the error rate is just over 16% and less 6% of predictions are uncertain. At 90% confidence level, over 23% of predictions become uncertain.

Conclusion

An investigation into application of conformal predictors to tea classification based on an array of gas sensors has been described. A new non-conformity measure for multiclass tea classification problem using SVM has been discussed. Experiments have been carried out to evaluate the performance of the conformal predictors. Empirical results have showed the good performance of the implemented conformal predictor.

  For example, if we have 4 classes: A, B, C and D, then a binary class non-conformity measure can be applied to each of possible class pairs: A-B, A-C, A-D, B-C, B-D and C-D. When the class pair A-B is considered, non-conformity values are only assigned to those examples from the class A and class B and the examples from other classes are ignored. The same procedure is applied to the other class pairs. Having considered all the possible class pairs, each example now has 3 different non-conformity values. The maximal of them is considered as the final non-conformity measure of this example. Algorithm 2 Non-conformity measure for multi-class SVM (for q > 2 classes) Input: Data set {z1 = (x1, y1), . . . , z l+1 = (x l+1 , y l+1 )}, where yi ∈ Y = {1, 2, . . . , q} Input: zj (one of examples above) for r = 1, . . . , q -1 do for s = r + 1, . . . , q do Apply dual form SVM for examples from classes r and s only Extract Lagrange multipliers α SV M (r:s) j

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. An example of recorded sensor response

Table 1 .

 1 Examples of individual predictions for leave-one-out cross validation

	No. T p(1) p(2) p(3) p(4) P Conf Cred No. T p(1) p(2) p(3) p(4) P Conf Cred
	.. .. ...	...	...	... .. ...	...	.. .. ...	...	...	... .. ...	...
	6 2 0.056 0.118 0.063 0.05 2 0.937 0.118 40 1 1 0.056 0.063 0.05 1 0.937 1
	7 4 0.222 0.056 0.063 0.053 1 0.937 0.222 41 4 0.056 0.056 0.063 1 4 0.937 1
	8 1 1 0.056 0.063 0.05 1 0.937 1	42 4 0.056 0.056 0.063 1 4 0.937 1
	9 4 0.167 0.111 0.188 0.316 4 0.812 0.316 43 3 0.056 0.056 1 0.05 3 0.944 1
	.. .. ...	...	...	... .. ...	...	.. .. ...	...	...	... .. ...	...
	The performance of forced prediction of the conformal predictor is compared with
	KIII model (a novel bionic neural network), a conventional artificial neural network

Table 2 .

 2 Confusion matrix for forced prediction

	True Label\Forced Prediction JG Tea (1) CG Tea (2) IB Tea (3) CB Tea (4)
	JG Tea (1)	14	1	1	1
	CG Tea (2)	1	16	0	0
	IB Tea (3)	1	0	14	0
	CB Tea (4)	2	0	0	17

Table 3 .

 3 Performance comparison (accuracy %)

	Method	JG Tea (1) CG Tea (2) IB Tea (3) CB Tea (4) Average
	KIII	93.3%	86.7%	93.3%	80%	88.3%
	Back-Propagation	80%	100%	66.7%	93.3%	85%
	Volunteers	80%	46.7%	83.3%	50%	65%
	Conformal Predictor 82.4%	94.1%	93.3%	89.5%	89.7%

Table 4 .

 4 Performance of conformal predictor at different confidence level

	Confidence Level Error Rate Multiple Prediction Rate
	80%	16.2%	5.9%
	85%	11.8%	13.2%
	90%	5.8%	23.5%
	95%	0	100%

Acknowledgements. This work was supported by a Royal Society International Project, Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC-RS 60911130129) and ERASysBio grant for SHIPREC project.