We generally look down after seeing stars seem like countable and watching sight just some if there is moonlight inside the deep darkness when we look up at sky at night, i guess we think as it's unreachable or there are so much unknown. It is true that we have a lot of unknown and it's so interesting that the biggest one is that darkness itself which stands right in front of us but majority doesn't feel any needing to question it at all. Maybe this darkness which majority is not interested in because of seeing simple as saying maybe like "it is just emptiness, nothing itself. What can i question, The Nothingness! " must be the research subject which we should brighten and be lightened. This subject must be the main subject which needs to be solved especially for the physicists if we want learn the universe better.

The dark energy is called to specify the unknown type of energy caused this condition of the dark space which we detected accelerating expanding. If we hold this dark energy just responsible for the expansion of the universe and think that it has no other effects, we would think wrong. Maybe that's the main reason why we can't explain. Consistent solutions to brighten the darkness of universe will be represented with finding answers to unsolved questions of today's physics in this article which i indicated to explain in my previous article that i cited, and these solutions will show us what the right way is to reach the new horizons some day.

In my previous, I explained that the gravity in fact is not a geodesic event and the gravitation is caused by matter itself so the released neutral field. Supersymmetry model is a substantially true model because like the action-reaction rule the opposite of everything so the negative of every positive can be found in the universe. Standard model will improve more with these kind of extensions until we found every particle. But something can destroy themselves by the force of rules of universe without keeping own living. For example, the opposite of black holes, white holes are nonexistence because if it is existed first it would rip apart itself with pushing from inside, on top of something pushes everything wouldn't pick up enough mass to create a singularity on the contrary to pulling picking up everything. If we think the opposite situation of neutron's radiating field which is combination field of proton and electron creating gravity according to supersymmetry model, the result of anti-neutral field of anti-neutron which is combination of anti-proton and positron creating anti gravity so the anti-gravitation is reached. These anti-neutrons will not be much stable as in the explanation of white holes (i know about a neutron outside of nuclei decays in minutes), therefore this repulsion field will lead to its fragmentation with causing becoming unstable. The CPT symmetry doesn't refuse annihilation of antimatter as

Abstract

Figuring out the mystery of expanding universe seems a mandatory question for today's physicists. The space, time and dark energy are also all the same thing as we found out that the space and time are the same. Looking at observations and findings take us to one result which is consisted with specifications and behaviors of space that; anti-gravitation field named as anti-neutral field is space-time itself. This anti-neutral field expands in 3 dimensions seen non-existence in the universe under the circumstances of anti gravity effects. The energy of this anti-neutron so the anti-matter will not vanish according to the conservation of energy law and will continue it's existence with spreading turning to energy wave of anti-neutral field. This is as same as the definition of fact called dark energy which is space itself and causes expanding. Defining this anti-neutral field just as anti-gravitation field will be deficit and wrong. Because this field is space-time itself and it's consistent with theory of general relativity, because it's the basic explanation of working mechanisms of Einstein's field equations. This field is time itself with doing the physical explanation, because wave form radiates at the speed of light and it explains slowing of time with getting close to speed of light. The relative movement of ideational wave particles of this field is plain and at speed of light according to each other in the fields which we move with the universe so we protect inertia and have no large gravity. All the spots move away from each other with same speed, same as the example of a balloon is expanding and growing homogeneously. This anti-neutral wave with smallest structure does not include any emptiness at all. Electromagnetic waves as light can move together with this anti-neutral field, so why the waves as light can move at the same speed for the all observers can be explained. Besides warping light with the followed spacetime at the influence of gravity causing distortion of this anti-neutral field can be explained.

Picture 1.1 Warped way of light by bending spacetime (Symbolic)

The vacuum effect in space can be explained so like the inactive two boats are approaching each other in the sea because of crashing waves around are stronger than waves between the boats. This field which is pushing from each side must be perceived as one of the facts that is raising matter's stability and seen as one factor which provides clumping mass, creating galaxies with this pushing influence. But it must not be forgotten this anti-neuter field which passes through almost everything with being affected too little is also trying to push away objects from each other. This activity is enough small to be neglected at inner section of massive objects like planets, planetoids, meteors which include neutron and inner circle of distance which is determined according to it's mass. Actually this action can be seen easier at the fields which don't contain extra sizable mass, existing for a very long time hydrogen nebulas seem like under the influence of both as pulling and as pushing at the same time. In my previous article, i explained that it can be considered as not being exposed to heavy gravitational effects and so surviving reason from collapsing. It can be thought that hydrogen atoms can produce neutral field with containing proton and electron but it's too small to say that it's non-existence because of there's distance as atomic radius between the proton and electron. Neutron borne gravitational neutral field shows warping by magnetic fields is not being cited cause of almost never happening.

Every mass causes distortion in anti-neutral field which we call space-time according to it's size like refraction when light gets in a denser environment. But it must not be considered that this anti-neutral field's speeding down because it generally doesn't interact with any matter cause of anti-matter borne and being wave which has the lowest energy. As to energy wavelet which is called photon of light can be speeding down with interacting as being absorbed by atoms of matter and being reflected according to it's transparency with partially losing energy. This anti-neutral field will lean more to zones where it can move easier at places where it meets with gravity as same as pushing something which is being pulled at the same way if it is considered as they both are acting same way. This tending movement simulates the bending space so well and it explains blue shift of light which is getting close to large masses. As it's seen in the figure 2a, length and speed are the same but way bent and the distance between photons got shorten relatively. Because of this reason, it will cause wavelength getting shorter with photons getting closer to each other relatively and blue shift with increasing frequency. Photon's increasing frequency with more vibrations at that area of space was depicted more exaggeratedly in figure 2b at right side just for imagining easier as though when two black holes bending space like doing pendulum movement.

Picture 2. Analysis of bending way which light follows at small scale My thesis can explain the event horizon of black holes, too. The gravity neutral field in event horizon zone of singularity is so dense that the anti-neutral pushing field has no effect as if it's like an another dimension and it comprises of gravitational field completely, because of this anything even light can't escape. This anti-neuter main wave which creates spacetime must be considered as dominating space. For example walking anyone in crowd will move in compliance with crowd because of not having any area to run even he's the fastest athlete. This area whose borders is stated by Schwarzchild radius is separated off from the effects of spacetime. Much as it could be perceived as like this in ergosphere region, this influence must not be considered as in interference experiments which can create crest and trough points. This anti-neuter field which we call spacetime must be considered as being a form of wave which is expanding in 3 dimensions at the same time. Therefore this can be the main reason of we have ability to move freely in 3 dimensions. Because if it was like gravity, we could have difficulty in like working to move, swim in a strong flow just heading to center so collapsing; besides the universe collapses too, it would give no chance to life with form we know. Additionally this thesis can also explain why we are in a situation of we can't go back to pass. Because it is not possible that we move this wave which is expanding to 3 dimensions, doesn't interact with almost anything, is unstoppable, oppositely as like gravity in the collapsing way like making space smaller. Furthermore it won't be correct if we think the neuter wave which we call gravitation can act in the way of moving the time reversibly, restoring to a previous state, to back of now. Because in our universe something which has happened or been lived can not be taken back, nothing can influence the before it's existence and if we want to reword, our universe doesn't contain paradox. It must be considered that in the area of named event horizon, coming into existence time remains constant, does not change because of there is no space which moves an expanding location to another location, a memory -a time to a next time and we think that region of space remains always constant at same diameter.

Result

As a result, we find that the built-in dark energy which provides expansion with being effective on everywhere of space while everything is in connection with each other is actually space itself as we found out that the space and time are the same one. We can discover this effect approximately 400 years after Newton held off from publishing because of those day's conditions for not based universal gravitation law on any effect, pulling causelessly with an invisible influence and even so published with a great contribution for mankind. The answer of why not anti-gravity exists while gravity exists in nature is standing in front of us is being discovered with the most consistent form of being neutral and anti-neutral field. This discovery can also explain why anti-matter mass doesn't even the atoms of anti-matter don't exist even being in small amounts by anti-neutral pushing field making unstable, ripping apart itself while there are so many mass clumping together. Not just with mathematical methods, our observations and findings take us to result of, space is this anti-neuter anti-gravitation field. The space-time is this anti-neuter field with reasons which i explained above. This anti-neuter field matches up one to one with the structure of space-time.

  Defining Space, Time and Dark Energy

	Mechanical Engineer
	OZAN VARLI
	August 2017
	Istanbul


Keywords:

des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Practical Aspects: Industrial Implementation and Limitations in a Multi-criteria Context

Introduction

If the consideration of a purely economic criterion can be the optimal solution for a simple and well-known system, in practice, things are rarely as easy as a result of interactions with other systems. This is particularly the case for any complex industrial system.

To illustrate this, we can take the example of optimizing a system of waterworks in a city: this system includes elements (pipes) of different ages and different types depending on the development of the city and neighborhoods, different loads (low or high road traffic), and a different environment (more or less aggressive soil in the case of metallic pipes for example), to illustrate only a few parameters among many others.

The economic optimization of the maintenance of such a system is theoretically possible, provided sufficient information is available. Such information concerns the physical behavior, economic valuation, the failure rate or the kinetics of degradation by the factors mentioned above. However, this system also interacts with other systems in the city -sewage, electricity, and gas systems for example -which theoretically have their own optimal maintenance frequency. We must therefore consider economic optimization from a global point of view at the city scale or (more practically) the neighbourhood scale to avoid digging Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno CAPRA through a road that was renovated a year ago in order to replace some pipes. In addition, other parameters that are not purely technical come into play: noise, traffic problems, serviceability or, more generally, anything that is related to users can also impact the optimization system if social criteria are integrated.

Finally, other even more uncertain aspects are to be considered: investment opportunities (loss of revenue in crisis period), the change of development strategy related to a change of government, etc. This small example shows that it rapidly becomes very difficult to optimize a complex multi-criteria system. It is even possible for contradictory stakes to appear that must then be studied in different ways: global optimization weighted in accordance with the stakes considered, or separation and optimization of some main stakes. In summary, any optimization process should be understood in the context of a very specific reference framework that takes into account the most important stakes for the operator.

An important aspect in the development of a methodology for industrial optimization of maintenance concerns, as outlined in the previous chapters, is the quantity and quality of data. Frequently, if we consider the case of large industrial assets, management practice is to follow the hierarchy of needs presented in Figure 15.1. Traditionally, the manager of an industrial asset follows the pyramid from the base to the top (arrow 1, Figure 15.1):

-knowledge: what is the asset to be managed? The answer to this question is not always evident for an old structure for which the history could have been lost with time (fire, war, relocation, etc.). It is necessary to clearly define the perimeter of the asset to study before any other action is taken;

-survey: what is the condition of the asset? This question is often perceived as the most important because it is prior to any optimization phase. However, it does not always need to be answered fully (100% of the known assets) as we shall see later. This step allows us to define the state of degradation of the progressively ageing asset or to identify the current service life of elements; -maintenance/repair: how will we maintain or recover the asset? To optimize the overall cost of maintenance actions, it is necessary to know the different possibilities (options) for maintaining or repairing the system, and the individual costs associated. In the case of infrastructure, for the same failure mode, different levels of maintenance actions may be available. These may have varying costs, but also varying efficiency. In the case of a cost/benefit approach, this element should not be forgotten when deciding on optimal maintenance actions;

-ranking: what actions should be taken first? This phase requires the definition of one or more limit states and corresponding thresholds for optimization. In the context of industrial infrastructure, criteria related to safety, availability and cost are commonly considered; -decision: the final stage of the process. All previous steps provide key elements for decision support in relation to the various stakes considered. This classic bottom-up approach is often seen as applicable only if the state of the system is perfectly known, which is not necessarily the case. Therefore, if ageing is controlled, the different steps generally involve the prior knowledge of the whole system before continuing the process (inspection). This is disadvantageous because it requires potentially significant investment and time before the definition of the maintenance master plan.

Approaches for risk-based maintenance, such as Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA, see Part 1) or Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM, see Chapter 13) for example, can address the problem of optimizing maintenance without first having complete knowledge of the system (arrow 2, Figure 15.1). Given the priorities in terms of maintenance policy, the various stakes considered, and partial knowledge of the asset, it is possible to define an action plan which recommends improving knowledge of the asset or monitoring some targeted elements only, rather than the whole system.

Considering the previous example, if we consider a sewer network, it is not necessary to know the current status of the entire system by inspection, which would be very expensive and time consuming, before taking action. A preliminary risk analysis is used to define the highest risk areas, with some degree of uncertainty given partial existing data, and then enables the definition of the main areas to inspect in order to refine the analysis and optimize the corresponding maintenance actions.

In summary, the industrial application of maintenance optimization methods based on a single economic optimum is difficult to implement from a practical point of view: given the uncertainties and complex phenomena involved, it is often more convenient to reason with respect to different scenarios that can encompass various alternatives. The following paragraph gives some examples of maintenance optimization in different industrial contexts.

Motorway concession with high performance requirements

Background and stakes

This study concerns the concession of a European motorway section for which the contractor must provide the entire integrated project design, construction, financing, maintenance and operation over the next thirty years. To ensure network availability, security and quality for users, a penalty system was introduced at the initiative of the public authority. Given the significant penalties for non-compliance with the criteria of availability, the contractor faces a high risk potential associated with unplanned outages, despite the precautions taken to ensure reliable operation. Therefore, there is a strong challenge for the contractor, during the call for tender, to fund the cost of risk associated with unavailability of the motorway network.

Unavailability can be of two different types: planned (for maintenance intervention) or unplanned. The challenge is to assess the residual risk associated with these unplanned outages. In particular, the following steps must be undertaken:

-identify and assess the risk:

-frequency of occurrence: identify the ageing mechanisms that might call into question the availability criteria, evaluate their kinetics, and determine the associated probability of failure; -severity: identify the different scenarios of penalties; -monetize the risk: financially quantify the amount of risk; -characterize the quantitative risk over 30 years. This enables us to know how and when to plan for risks.

In a second phase, the objective is to optimize the overall forecast operating costs over the operating period. These costs include:

-construction costs, depending on the chosen design; -maintenance costs over the entire concession time; -operating costs over the entire concession time; and -the cost of risk associated with unavailability.

The results of the study lead to a connection between a financially quantified residual risk, relative to unplanned unavailability, and different scenarios related to the quality of design and maintenance levels implemented. The more robust the design choices are, and the greater the level of maintenance, the lower the residual risk, and vice versa. The final design and maintenance choices are taken with a view to achieving the optimum scenario to minimize the total cost of the project.

The asset studied consists of a 40-year old highway network of about 15 km that connects three highways and crosses a canal through an underwater tunnel of about 600 m length. The existing tunnel has two partitions of one-way traffic made of two lanes in each direction. The decision was taken to build a new tunnel with two partitions parallel to the former (see Figure 15.2). To minimize the possibility that the tunnel undergoes multiple unplanned maintenance periods, the contract for construction and operation includes a penalty clause related to unavailability but also some quality and comfort criteria. About thirty operational requirements were defined in the technical specifications, from the pavement quality (roughness, drainage, etc.) to the proper operation of safety systems (lighting, ventilation, light signals, etc.). For each of these criteria, beyond a certain level of system failure (such as the number of lights out of service) or degradation of the roadway (such as time of drainage of rain water), maintenance is imposed and the section over which the failure occurs is considered to be unavailable, triggering penalties.

The severity of the penalty applied depends on several factors, including the duration of the unavailability of the section concerned, the number of lanes closed, the time at which the unavailability occurs (peak, off peak, night, etc.). These penalties can quickly reach several million euros.

A possible preventative measure consists of anticipating failures and planning maintenance actions before they are imposed. The system operator is allowed 35 nights per year of downtime for maintenance without penalty. The challenge is to find the optimum maintenance program to balance the anticipation of works, which helps to avoid unplanned outages, and postponement, avoiding the proliferation of maintenance actions.

Methodology

A preliminary analysis showed the requirements of the most critical operation:

-pavement roughness; -accumulation of water on the roadway; -operation of the ventilation system in tunnels; -operation of traffic detectors; -operation of the monitoring and management system (control room).

The approach adopted for the study of unavailability related to a problem of pavement roughness and to failure of the ventilation is presented below. In general, the probability of failure over time was calculated initially on the basis of available feedback. The probability of failure was then used to determine the cumulative probability of a failure during the concession period of 30 years.

Roughness of the pavement

The roughness of a roadway increases during the first year of operation due to the gradual erosion of the binder around the aggregates, which then become sharper. The initial friction coefficient may therefore be relatively low and the probability of non-compliance with the roughness requirement is then non-zero. When the surface binder has disappeared, the coefficient of friction decreases due to aggregate polishing and stabilizes after about 5 years. The probability of failure increases during this period until the road surface is renovated (≈ 10 to 13 years). The cumulative penalties cost, shown in Figure 15.4, is based on the number of lanes that would be impacted by the unavailability and takes into account the specificities of different sections of the roadway.

Ventilation system in tunnels

For these kinds of systems, the probability of failure was determined according to the manufacturers' data using a Weibull type law. The probability distribution for each component was fitted on the basis of expected lifetimes (frequency of planned replacement), the mean time between failures (MTBF) provided by manufacturers, and usual lifetimes during which a failure is very unlikely to occur. For ventilators, the combination of the probability of failure of the devices themselves (wear of propellers) and electronic and electrical components is considered. To calculate the probable cost of penalties, several design choices were available including possible redundancy of ventilators (Figure 15.6).

Results

The approach taken has helped to assign a financial cost to the risk of unavailability associated with performance requirements, in terms of quality and comfort for users, throughout the concession period. For each requirement, the accumulation of penalties has been estimated to determine the full cost penalties associated with the residual risk of unavailability considering the planned maintenance (Figure 15.7). The calculation of the total cost of penalties for unavailability was used to validate design choices: between an optimum design resulting in less downtime but with higher initial cost (e.g. redundant systems) and the gain provided by this solution in terms of cost of risk associated with these penalties. Similarly, the At the end of the study, the contractor obtained a probabilistic estimate of the penalties they would have to pay with costs distributed over the 30 years of operation. This allows identification of periods where preventive maintenance would have to be done to avoid "peaks" of failure. The results obtained lead to a quantitative view of the residual risk associated with unplanned unavailability of the motorway network. In addition, knowledge of the potential penalty distribution for the next 30 years enables the optimized programming of budgets.

The resulting value of around €35 million over 30 years (averaging close to €1 million per year) is significant compared to the magnitude of the total project cost of approximately €500 million. This result is related to the very high penalties for noncompliance with the availability criteria. The benefit of such a comprehensive approach to infrastructure lifecycle management applies to the building owner, prime contractor, contractor or operator. In all cases, the method has many advantages:

clear definition of performance objectives, criteria and associated indicators; -clear allocation of responsibilities to each party; transparency towards the identified risks and their methods of treatment (who is responsible? What actions should be implemented?) -argued defense of budgets; -optimization of the total costs of infrastructure projects in relation to the entire life cycle; -consideration and preservation of the specific stakes of each party; risk-based monitoring and maintenance of infrastructure driven by the dual consideration of ageing mechanisms and impacted stakes, according to the parties and the periods considered.

This example shows the importance of proper consideration of short-term choices (design, construction methods) and short-term stakes (from day-to-day availability), and the long-term implications of these choices (maintenance costs and condition of the structure at the end of the concession contract) as well as long-term challenges (asset condition, sustainable management).

Ageing of civil engineering structures: using field data to update predictions

Background and stakes

Risk management of ageing assets, particularly civil engineering infrastructure, is an important issue for the future. The technical challenge is not only to build new infrastructure but also to maintain what already exists because the economic stakes are considerable. The prediction of ageing through modeling allows management of the risks associated with the expected service life of infrastructure. The use of updating techniques enables the best use to be made of monitoring instrumentation and inspection data in order to define optimized maintenance strategies. Benefits for the asset owners include better risk management and savings on maintenance budgets. To anticipate and optimize these costs, it is necessary to use ageing models which are as representative as possible of the real physical asset, and input data which is as reliable as possible.

In the field, some characteristic ageing parameters can be measured more or less accurately. Bayesian approaches (Chapter 11, section 11.3) are a technique well adapted to this type of problem to update the ageing prognosis. This kind of prediction is generally based on the use of physical models where various parameters of the models may be uncertain. This uncertainty can be divided into two types:

-the inherent variability of these parameters, such as the compressive strength of concrete which will vary within a single mix because of the heterogeneity of the material;

-uncertainty of measurement linked to the device used to quantify the parameter or a lack of knowledge about these parameters.

In practice, some physical material characteristics can be measured, as well as the consequences of ageing. However, like any measurement, these parameters have some uncertainty. In addition, there are generally relatively few measurements made because the techniques are expensive and of varying accuracy. It is therefore important to use them effectively with proper data processing. Bayesian methods can be used to process data and update the ageing prognosis.

Corrosion risk of a cooling tower

The physical phenomenon considered here is the carbonation of concrete. Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere penetrates concrete due to its porosity and dissolves in the pore solution. The carbonic acid formed then reduces the pH of the concrete. If the carbonation front reaches the rebars, they are no longer protected by the highly basic pH of sound concrete and will therefore gradually be affected by corrosion. Corrosion is the most common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures and also the most expensive to repair. It is therefore crucial to assess the risk of corrosion to optimize the maintenance of structures that may be susceptible to this pathology [ELL 95].

The example presented here concerns a nuclear plant's cooling tower [CAP 07]. Considering the dimensions of the structure (height greater than 100 m) and the environment to which it is subject over time (wetting/drying cycles, temperature gradients, moisture, etc.) material properties and solicitations vary in time and space. During an inspection campaign after 25 years of operation, samples of concrete were taken from the structure. The values of compressive strength and carbonation depth were measured and are summarized in In parallel, measurements of concrete cover (d) were also carried out (see Figure 15.9). An exhaustive visual inspection of the structure was carried out to measure the total length of the unprotected steel reinforcement. Rebar corrosion causes cracking of the concrete cover because the volume occupied by the corroded steel is larger than that occupied by sound steel. The inspection determined that the total length of exposed steel was 115 m out of a total of about 500 km of reinforcing steel in the whole outer wall of the cooling tower. This means the order of magnitude of the proportion of exposed rebars to the cumulated length of steel is 10 -4 . We can therefore deduce that the real proportion of corroded reinforcement at 25 years is greater than this value of 10 -4 because a certain amount of steel is corroded without external signs, i.e. having yet reached the pressure needed to produce cracking or spalling of the concrete cover.

Bayesian updating

To cope with uncertainty about the parameters of the carbonation model used to describe the evolution of phenomena and reflect data from the experimental field, an updating technique based on a Bayesian network was developed using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) approach, given the available measurements at different nodes of the network (Figure 15.10). The graph of this Bayesian network represents a carbonation model developed to calculate the probability of corrosion initiation of steel in reinforced concrete considering existing measurements of Rc (concrete compressive strength) and X (depth of carbonation). Nodes linked by solid lines represent physically dependent random or deterministic variables; the dotted lines represent the links between random variables and parameters. The model inputs, i.e. RH (relative humidity) and Rc (compressive strength), are modeled by conditional laws depending on a number of parameters p 1, ..., p 4 . Each of these parameters is modeled by a random variable. Each measurement is modeled by a random variable depending on the input it measures. In addition, the output variables X (depth of carbonation) and X> d (limit state function: depth of carbonation X greater than concrete cover d = initiation of corrosion), and measurement variables of X , depend on time t.

To calculate the probability of corrosion initiation over time, a Beta distribution law has been postulated for the variability of the compressive strength according to data from Table 15.1 and the fact that, physically, this parameter is bounded by minimum and maximum values (estimated from Table 15.1).

A deterministic approach is not capable of representing the apparent ratio of corroded steel observed on the structure (approximately 10 -4 after 25 years) as it does not take into account the variability that affects the corrosion process. The probability of corrosion initiation obtained by using the carbonation model in the probabilistic approach gives a value of about 10 -2 after 25 years. This value is higher than the observed ratio because it does not correspond to the same indicator: the corrosion process has to be sufficiently advanced (a certain amount of corrosion products i.e. of steel loss) before cracks appear at the surface of the structure. The order of magnitude predicted here is a good estimate if we consider that cracks appear for a loss of steel cross-section of about 100 to 200 μm.

. Probability of corrosion initiation over time, P(X(t) > d)

A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model that can acquire and use information to update system knowledge. In this example, forecasting the evolution of carbonation depth based on experimental data collected after 25 years of operation and estimated initial data has been updated (Figure 15.12). Compared to the initial prediction of carbonation depth, it can be seen that feeding field data into the updating process has led to a decrease of the mean value but also the uncertainty associated to the carbonation front (time fractiles at 5 and 95% are closer to the mean). The use of techniques such as Bayesian networks, amongst others, is a useful way to consider real data from the field. These tools help to update the knowledge of the system, and then to predict its future state, which is particularly interesting for the aim of optimizing maintenance actions, for example. These techniques are particularly useful when few data are available (meaning the statistical approach is difficult to implement). Nevertheless, despite the usefulness of this type of approach, it must be noted that the model must be as representative as possible in its description of the phenomena modeled in order to be reliable.

Conclusion

In the global process of the management of maintenance of civil engineering structures, there are opportunities for optimization from the design stage to the extension of the life span, as illustrated by the two previous examples. Like any complex system evolving with time, there is some uncertainty about the condition of structures and, generally, few experimental data to characterize them as these are costly to obtain and may require costly unavailability periods. Therefore, numerical modeling of the ageing process is one solution for the structure's owner to estimate the future evolution of their asset. Many uncertainties exist related to the parameters of these models, and reliability approaches can provide richer results for decision-making than purely deterministic approaches. When field data exist, it is possible to update the initial prediction and therefore adapt the planned maintenance schedule. The combination of these different approaches enables the acquisition of a maximum amount of elements that are helpful for the manager in their decision-making process.

Figure 15 . 1 .

 151 Figure 15.1. Pyramid of needs for the management of industrial assets (from [BOE 09])

Figure 15 . 2 .

 152 Figure 15.2. Studied system: existing and new tunnel (from [AUG 09])

Figure 15 . 3 .

 153 Figure 15.3. Cumulative probability of unavailability due to the roughness of the pavement [AUG 09]

Figure 15 . 4 .

 154 Figure 15.4. Cumulative penalty costs for unavailability due to non-compliance with roughness requirements

Figure 15 . 5 .

 155 Figure 15.5. Probability of failure of a ventilator (no electronic or electrical device considered)

Figure 15 . 6 .

 156 Figure 15.6. Cumulative cost of residual risk of unavailability due to failure of ventilators depending on the design choices

Figure 15 . 7 .Figure 15 . 8 .

 157158 Figure 15.7. Cost of residual risk of unavailability for different requirements

  risk was also calculated by considering different maintenance intervals.

Figure 15 . 9 .

 159 Figure 15.9. Experimental data and modeling of the statistical distribution of concrete cover (d)

Figure 15 . 10 .

 1510 Figure 15.10. Bayesian network used for the carbonation model (RH: relative humidity)

Figure 15. 11

 11 Figure 15.11. Probability of corrosion initiation over time, P(X(t) > d)

Figure 15 . 12 .

 1512 Figure15.12. Initial and updated evolutions of the depth of carbonation (mean value and fractiles at 5% and 95%)

  Table 15.1.

		Mean	Standard	Number of
		value	deviation	measurement
	Compressive strength Rc (MPa)	48.8	4.7	15
	Carbonatation depth X (mm)	6.3	2.8	9
	Table 15.1. Statistics derived from the experimental campaign


Artem Potebnia

Method for Classification of the Computational Problems on the Basis of the Multifractal Division of the Complexity Classes

Keywords: computational problem, P and NP classes, reduction, equivalence relation, multifractal

Method for classification of the computational problems on the basis of the multifractal division of the complexity classes

Artem Potebnia

To cite this version:

I. INTRODUCTION

In order to form the classification of the computational problems, they are grouped into separate classes from the perspective of their complexity. The problems belonging to each class have the same type (decision, function, counting, etc.), identical computation model and similar requirements to time and space resources [START_REF] Potebnia | Investigation of transformations and landscapes for combinatorial optimization problems[END_REF]. The most important complexity classes are indicated based on the following concept of reduction: Definition 1. The reduction B A poly ≤ of the computational problem A to another problem B is presented by transformations of the problem instances and solutions, respectively denoted by f and h, which have the polynomial time complexity.

Let us consider the NP class, which contains the decision problems whose solutions can be verified in polynomial time. Being a preorder on this class, the reduction relation poly ≤ allows to indicate inside it the NP-complete problems that are the most difficult to solve. On the contrary, the class NP P ⊆ covers all problems that can be solved in the polynomial time using the deterministic Turing machine. Nevertheless, the graph isomorphism and factoring problems have not been included in class P or set of NP-complete problems and thereby their accurate classification under this approach remains impossible. Moreover, the closer inspection of the P class shows that it similarly contains the P-complete problems and the separate class NC, which respectively encompass the hardest and easiest problems according to the criterion of the parallel feasibility. Additionally, the P class also contains some problems that are not proven to be either Pcomplete or included in the NC class. In particular, one example is the greatest common divisor problem represented in the decision form.

Therefore, the internal structure of the P class is similar to the structure of the wider NP class. This observation demonstrates the self-similarity feature of the nested complexity classes structure. Based on these considerations, this paper proposes the new method for the proper classification of the computational problems by means of the multifractal division of the complexity classes.

Within the deflation approach, the fractal division is constructed by the iterative application of the generator, which represents the decomposition rule, to the specified initiator and its smaller copies. The well-known illustrations of the fractal division are the pinwheel, halfhex, sphinx and many others. For example, in the case of the pinwheel division, the initiator is represented by the right-angled triangle with legs in a ratio of 1:2. The generator performs the decomposition of such triangle into five homothetic triangles that all are smaller copies of the initiator [START_REF]Quasicrystals and Geometry[END_REF].

Notice that the multifractal division is more general than the regular one, because it allows the application of multiple generators. The remainder of this paper focuses on the investigation of the division iteration that carries out the detailing of the internal structure of the P class.

II. INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE P CLASS

As a warm-up observation, note that the problems belonging to the P class have different suitability for the development of the parallel solving algorithms. In particular, the problems that are fully deprived of the natural parallelism, being inherently sequential, are considered as P-complete. On the contrary, the special class P NC ⊆ encompasses the problems that allow the efficient parallel implementation of the solving algorithms. However, the problem of establishing the exact relation between the NC and P classes is still open, although the assumption P NC ⊂ is the most common. The principal requirement for the problems belonging to the NC class is formulated as the opportunity to develop the parallel solving algorithms that achieve the polylogarithmic time complexity

) (log n O k using ) ( c n O parallel processors,
where k and c are some constants, while n is the size of input parameters [START_REF] Potebnia | Fast output-sensitive approach for minimum convex hulls formation[END_REF].

Warning: This is the accepted version of the paper. The final version in the publisher's typesetting could be found here: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7905318/ PIC S&T'2016 Since the NC class is the subset of the P class, it is fully composed only of the decision problems. In this regard, its function extension

FP FNC ⊆
is specified in order to encompass the function problems that have the high parallel feasibility. Note that the formal criteria for the problem inclusion in the NC and FNC classes are the same. The only difference between the problems belonging to these classes occurs only in the form of the solution representation. In particular, the circuits corresponding to the FNC class problems have multiple outputs in contrast to the circuits for the NC class problems, which are limited to the presence of only one output. All the problems within the NC class are linked by the special NC-reductions in order to determine their relative parallel feasibility.

= i C 1 = i C
and the basis functions ,

j i C C = , k j i C C C ∧ = , k j i C C C ∨ =
applied to the previous elements of C, i.e.

. , i k j < At the same time, the element n C designates the output gate of the circuit C, while its calculated value represents the solution of the CVP problem.

Moreover, the CVP problem has several variations, such as TopCVP, MCVP, NANDCVP, NORCVP and PCVP, which also are P-complete and differ in the restrictions imposed on the construction of the problem instances C. Together, these variations provide a powerful basis for establishing the reductions to all other problems.

{ } { }  t s v v v V n , ...,
{ } t s V V , \ ′ =
into the T and F subsets such that the nodes T v ∈ correspond to the true gates of the circuit, while the vertices F v ∈ correspond to the false ones. The network G′ holds the standard flow formed by filling the flows passing through the edges ) , ( v v t up to their capacity and assigning zero values to the flows that correspond to the edges ), , (

v v f where , T v t ∈ F v f ∈ and . V v ∈
In addition, the specification of the standard flow requires setting 1 ) ,

( = t v f n if . 1 = n C
In order to explore in detail the standard flow, let us consider the (s, t)-cut

  } { }, { t F s T
of the network . G′ Note that the overall flow in such cut is equal to its total capacity, because only completely filled flows pass through the specified partition. This means that the standard flow is the maximum in the network . G′ Excluding the arcs used for balancing the network, only flow passing through the edge ) , ( t v n can have even or odd value depending on the output of the element .

Definition 2 .

 2 Notice that the following formal definition of the NC class uses the concept of a Boolean circuit in order to identify the property of the natural parallelism in the algorithms. The complexity class NC is specified as a family of subsets ,

Definition 3 . 4 .≤L

 34 The NC-reduction of the decision problem A to another decision problem B is denoted by B A NC poly ≤ and represents the special case of the general reduction relation where the mapping f could be computed in the polylogarithmic time using the polynomial number of processors, i.e. . FNC f ∈ Similar to the general reduction relation, the NCreduction is a preorder on the P class, which means that a pair ( ) NC poly P ≤ , is a preordered set of problems. Establishing the relation B A NC poly ≤ imposes the following simple restrictions on the inclusion of the A and B problems in the NC class: If , OF THE P-COMPLETE PROBLEMS BASED ON THE NC-REDUCTION RELATION Definition The problem L is considered P-complete if it belongs to the P class and is linked to all other problems P The process of solving the P-complete problems is associated with the presence of the fundamental data dependencies (such as the read-after-write (RAW), writeafter-read (WAR), write-after-write (WAW) situations), which results in an inability to develop the efficient parallel algorithms. Most commonly, the P-completeness of the problem P L ∈ is determined by specifying the relation L L NC poly ≤ * to the known P-complete problem . * In the paper [4], Ladner has proven that the Circuit Value Problem (CVP) serves as one of the basic Pcomplete problems, similarly to the satisfiability problem (SAT) in the NP-completeness theory. Instances of the CVP problem are presented in the form of sequences

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. Example of the NC-reduction

nC▲≤Fig. 2 .

 2 Fig. 2. Simplified example of specifying the collection of the equivalence classes inside the sample class P

PIC S&T'2016

October 4-6, 2016 Kharkiv, Ukraine


Charles Ripley

José Alberto

Mujica Cordano

Venezuela, Violence, and the New York Times: Failing When it Comes to Selective Indignation

Keywords:

The Venezuelan protests that emerged in the beginning of 2014 attracted a wide range of academic and media attention to the quality of its reportage. The protests centered upon the nature of the opposition to the current President Nicolás Maduro (2013-present), the successor to former President Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013). One of the most controversial issues pertaining to the political unrest was the tone of U.S. media coverage. Supporters of Chavismo claim that the U.S. mainstream media tends to focus on governmental abuses while ignoring the violence perpetrated by the opposition. Despite the widespread attention the crisis has generated, there has been little effort to systematically test the extent to which the violence is attributable to governmental forces and whether or not the U.S. media has accurately and dispassionately covered the events. Creating the first political violence dataset for the Venezuelan crisis, this research aims to measure the extent to which the U.S. media outlet, led by The New York Times, objectively covered the 2014 crisis. Results suggest that although the New York Times accurately reported governmental violence, it significantly underreported opposition violence. The study presented here not only hopes to broaden one's view of the Venezuelan crisis, but aims to contribute to a wide range of academic and policy studies, including Latin American politics, political violence, and media studies.

"Somos dueños de nuestra historia . . . ya sea

Introduction

Since Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013) was elected president of Venezuela in 1999, the country has attracted a wide range of scholarly and media attention. The waves of protestsand other forms of violence that began to destabilize the nation at the beginning of 2014 very soon was receiving special coverage. In addition to the much-expected absorption of the subject by academics, journalists, professional athletes and Hollywood entertainment stars took sides. Even socialite Paris Hilton tweeted about her findings about the country of Venezuela: "Praying for Peace in Venezuela. Such wonderful people, they don't deserve this." i The political unrest that left over forty people dead, hundreds wounded, and millions of dollars in private and public property damage is extremely complex to entirely understand. Nevertheless, much of the situation can be broken down between supporters of Chavismo, the Center-left movement based on the policies of Hugo Chávez, and the opposition movement. Supporters of current president Nicolás Maduro (2013-present), Chavez' successor in the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela Party (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela) (PSUV), argue that Chavismo is a legitimate democratic movement. The protesters, on the other hand, tend to be members of the upper-class elite that aims to overthrow the democratically-elected president and desire to roll back the social and economic gains the poor masses have experienced through the "Bolivarian Revolution." ii Essentially, protesters want to return the right-wing oligarchy and middle-class political base to a position of pre-eminence back to power. The opposition however, accuses the government of promulgating authoritarian rule and of being guilty of gross human rights abuses. For the opposition, the demonstrations stem from the government's mismanagement of the economy, destruction of political institutions, and the excessive use of force against peaceful demonstrations.

One of the most controversial issues pertaining to the political violence and persistent unrest in Venezuela is the nature of media coverage in the United States. iii A number of scholars, journalists, and activists claim that the U.S. mainstream media tends to focus on governmental abuses while ignoring the violence and destruction perpetrated by the anti-Chavista demonstrators. iv In June 2014, Al Jazeera published an article suggesting that U.S. and international news outlets have completely dismissed both the right-wing violence and the accomplishments of the Venezuelan government under President Hugo Chavez, which had lasted fourteen years. Citing gains in rural land reform for an estimated 400,000 peasants and individuals negatively affected by a long history of right-wing attacks, the article contained that such objective information "doesn't fit with the narrative" of an oppressive leftist government against peaceful demonstrations. Additionally, others have pointed out that the U.S. media inflates the extent and depth of the demonstrations. v Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington D.C., points out that protests have been only narrowly concentrated in a few upper-class neighborhoods. "I came away skeptical of the narrative, reported daily in the media, that increasing shortages of basic foods and consumer goods are a serious motivation for the protests," he observes after travelling to Venezuela in March 2014, "these people [average citizens] are not hurting -they're doing very well. Their income has grown at a healthy pace since the Chávez government obtained control of the oil industry a decade ago." vi The accusation of bias coverage is not limited to Venezuela. vii Some sources observe that bias is common and intense against the rise of the manifestation of the new South American left. In the widely-read Huffington Post, William K. Black accused the New York Times (NYT) of unbalanced coverage between Italy's former Prime Minister (2011Minister ( -2013) ) and Minister of Economy andFinance (2011-2012) Mario Monti andEcuador's president Rafael Correa (2007-2017). Although both hold a Ph.D. in economics, Black contends that "the New York Times treat[s] Monti reverentially and Correa dismissively." Black concludes that this kind of double-tiered coverage is ironic since Correa has been much more successful in handling Ecuador's economy than Monti has with Italy's. viii The Washington Post has also been criticized for its comments on President Nicolás Maduro. An editorial in the Washington Post described the president as an "economically illiterate former bus driver." ix The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA), a think tank that focuses on Latin America, derided the Post's article as an "ad hominem attack with misinformed smears." "The Post's views," such as post-critics director Larry Birns, Mills, Pineo counter-editorial observe, "appear to have been formed by uncritically accepting all of the propaganda offered up by the right-wing opposition press in Venezuela." x These are no trivial accusations. The responsibility of the media is to inform the citizenry on domestic and world events. The information generated by news coverage often guides public opinion and influences governmental courses of action. In short, coverage informs policy. It is also worth noting that prestigious newspapers often affect scholarly research. "In addition to producing much of the information available to government agencies, protesters, and rebels," Baum and Zhukov point out in their own research on media bias, "news organizations generate the text corpora social scientists use to study political movements." xi As a result, the media plays a pivotal role in how academics develop research questions, find evidence, build datasets, and make scholarly conclusions.

Despite the seriousness of such accusations, they are not often tested. In the absence of any frequent formal scholarly treatment, we only stand witness to the two major protagonists (pro-and anti-Chavistas) fighting it out through a wide range of media outlets, including radio, television, newspapers, blogs, and tweets. xii This research aims to fill an important gap in the literature surrounding the subject. Evaluating the role of the media, however, is not easily reducible to hypothesis testing and yes and no conclusions. Nor would it be possible to analyze all U.S. coverage of the Venezuelan crisis. Instead, this study specifically focuses on the New York Times and the extent to which it offered a fair or not a balanced understanding of the crisis. Focusing on the NYT is useful for two reasons. First, the NYT has been a focus of criticism over its coverage of Venezuela. Even famed director Oliver Stone attacked the NYT for calling the 2002 coup against Chávez a popular uprising and, since the rise of Chávez, has had a back-and-forth with the media outlet. xiii But even more importantly, the NYT is influential not only in policy and academic circles, but also with the broader rings of the U.S. public. It remains one of the country's most reputable news sources and is often considered a more objective alternative to other sources such as the conservative Wall Street Journal. The NYT's own apology for misinformation regarding weapons of mass destruction leading up to the 2003 war in Iraq highlights the paper's importance and its influence over policy makers and the general public. xiv What is more, the fact that President Maduro, the former president of Venezuela's National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello (PSUV), and the government's main critic Leopold Lopez all published op-eds in the NYT (Maduro even purchased space in the newspaper to explain Venezuela's side of the recent Colombia-Venezuela border controversy) attests to its influence. xv Therefore, the NYT merits attention due to its alleged bias against South American leftist political movements and its scope and importance of its readership.

As the tables indicate, the time under study is from February 2014 to February 2015. Limiting the research to this specific time frame has produced a number of advantages. First, mass protests, particularly in areas where the opposition is popular, emerged at the beginning of 2014 and began to fizzle out by the beginning of 2015. Focusing on this one-year period allows for a more accurate and in-depth understanding of the NYT's coverage of Venezuelan politics. Essentially, the research is more manageable. There are literally thousands of sources, points of views, and stories to be told regarding the rise and rule of the Bolivarian Revolution. Focusing on a year of protests is a workable duration of events and sufficient coverage to test the continued accusations. Moreover, objectively coding for political violence and constructing a dataset offers a well-rounded snapshot of events without falling into confirmation bias. Supporters of Chavismo can simply cite protestor violence while members of the opposition observe governmental abuses. Information has become politicized. The research herein aims to offer a relatively more balanced perspective.

It is also important to note that Venezuela has undergone significant changes. Since the limited time under study, Venezuela has suffered new waves of protests that have emerged after the opposition won a super majority in the Venezuelan National Assembly in December of 2015 and the Supreme Court dissolved it in March of 2017. To replace the National Assembly, Venezuela held its first Constituent Assembly vote on July 30th, from which the opposition party Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) abstained in protest. This move, which the opposition calls a coup, has sparked more protests throughout the country. xvi As a result, the findings presented here are limited to the specific timeframe mentioned above. Nonetheless, the bias in coverage found in these accounts may be present in the current reporting of Venezuelan politics. Consequently, this should be a subject for future research on the ongoing Venezuelan crisis.

Methodology

The main methodology this time relies upon a different bouquet of qualitative coding. In a nutshell, coding organizes raw data into a more organized and systematic form. This process often entails assigning value to the specific economic, social, or political phenomena under study. In the case of Venezuela presented here, we rely upon what Johnny Saldaña calls magnitude coding. xvii Laying out each incident of political violence, we assign the magnitude value of high, medium, or low. xviii An act that results in the death of a student protester, for instance, would be high, whereas deliberately spilling gallons of oil in a street out of protest would be low. Medium, on the other hand, could involve slight bodily injury, forcible movements, and threats. We further attribute the act of violence to one of three categories: government, opposition, or accident. Creating another dataset for the NYT's coverage, it is then left to compare the datasets to measure the extent to which the NYT provided balanced coverage. For the purpose of transparency, as well as to almost invite criticism, we opted to include the datasets (see Tables 1,2, 3, and 4) in the main article instead of a coding handbook.

In addition to offering a better understanding of Venezuelan political events, this research creates a more reliable dataset for political violence in Venezuela. In the academic community, political scientists have assumed the responsibility of creating datasets to measure such concepts as democracy, terrorism, and political terror. xix Despite having scholarly value, these datasets often fail for Latin America for two reasons: Sources and funding. Datasets rarely rely on area experts or on the people of Latin America themselves. Sources are usually U.S. institutions that have invested interests in Latin American politics, such as the Department of State and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Teaching and research assistants, most of whom know little or nothing about Latin America, quickly sift through such documents and obtain a superficial, often slanted, and at times outrageous understandings of Latin America. Furthermore, such datasets are often funded by questionable U.S. governmental sources. Scholars, pressured to bring large sums of grant money to their universities, often rely on U.S. governmental institutions as a major source of funding, which is integral for maintaining research. All of these conditions can be problematic for research. Information that is cultivated under these conditions is often dominated by a U.S.-centric, English-based perspective. Latin American scholars have already expressed concerns about datasets for Latin America. Drawing upon Central America, Booth et al. point out that U.S. datasets "reflect the biases and fluctuating intensity coverage of the U.S. newspapers from which they are drawn and their manipulation by U.S. foreign policy makers." xx What is written by intention in major U.S. newspapers, therefore, is crucial for the generation of new tranches of knowledge in both the academic as well as the public realm.

Dataset Comparisons

For the sake of comparison, I will briefly discuss three highly-cited datasets to highlight the main problems for Latin America and stress how the research presented here offers a more comprehensive, yet never complete, picture. They include Freedom House (FH), The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and The Political Terror Scale (PTS). xxi Each dataset helps contribute to the understanding of democracy and terror, yet, for Latin America, there are serious shortcomings with such data. Created in 1941, Freedom House remains the oldest and most cited dataset related to world democracy. Funded by the U.S. government, FH has attracted a wide range of criticism. Despite being touted as an independent think tank, critics have longed accused FH of legitimizing regimes friendly to the United States and delegitimizing those that are not. Herman and Brodhead offered one of the first in-depth accounts of how FH served as a U.S. policy tool to legitimize questionable democratic elections in countries such as Rhodesia (1979) and El Salvador (1982). xxii Criticism is not limited to U.S. scholars. The former British ambassador in Uzbekistan (2002Uzbekistan ( -2004) Craig Murray, for example, further confirms the prevalence of such multiple biases with Freedom House, noting how the organization ignored human rights abuses in the country since the Uzbek government was supporting the U.S. war on terror. xxiii Conversely, in an effort to delegitimize a country with which Washington has had tensions, FH relied upon opposition figure and former Contra member Arturo J. Cruz to report on democracy for Nicaragua in the 1980s. Cruz later admitted to being on the CIA payroll. In a complete reversal of his report, he also confirmed that the 1984 Nicaraguan presidential elections, from which he abstained, were fair and free. He acknowledged that he should have remained a principal opposition candidate, despite conceding he would have lost against the Sandinistas' popularity. xxiv FH and the U.S. government, however, refused to recognize the elections since the Sandinista candidate Daniel Ortega had won with 67% of the votes. xxv It should be no surprise that research currently finds a strong link between FH and support for the Venezuelan opposition, opposed to remaining neutral. xxvi Despite offering in-depth literature and useful measurements for studying democracy, the intimate connection FH has had with U.S. policy goals remains a serious issue for objectivity in Latin America.

Following the terrorist attacks on September 11 th , 2001, research on terror has grown immensely. Housed at the University of Maryland, the GTD is an outgrowth of this interest, coding for terrorist attacks perpetrated by non-state actors. Funded directly by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Justice, it often offers a U.S.-centric understanding of what is considered terrorism. To the researchers' credit, they have highlighted a number of U.S.-supported terrorist groups such as the Nicaraguan CONTRA and Miami Cuban organizations. Nonetheless, the database should remain suspect for scholars of Latin America; for it codes popular democratic movements, peasant organizations, and people simply trying to defend themselves as terrorists. These include the Nicaraguan Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), the broad-based guerrilla movement which successfully toppled the U.S.-supported regime of Anastasio Somoza Debayle (1967)(1968)(1969)(1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979). The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), a broad-based movement of Salvadoran guerillas, is also coded as a terrorist group. In most cases, guerilla fighters were defending themselves against a very violent and repressive government. xxvii On the other hand, Nicaraguan and Salvadoran governmental atrocities, as well as non-governmental groups such as the infamous Salvadoran death squads (escuadrones de muerte), have been able to escape the "terrorist" label. The idea that the Salvadoran military can slaughter up to 800 civilians in the 1981 Massacre of El Mozote and not be coded as "terrorism," but the peasants who defend themselves from such acts are should be met with great suspicion. xxviii Dora María Téllez, a prominent Sandinista guerilla who played an integral part in overthrowing the Somoza Dynasty , personally finds the GTSD coding for terrorism as offensive. She further stressed that those involved with the database harbored a rudimentary understanding of Central American politics. xxix Lamentably, the database appears to reflect Noam Chomsky's perennial criticism of the academia of terrorism. For Chomsky, scholars and journalists readily label peasant groups terrorists while ignoring the terrorist acts of powerful actors such as the U.S. government. "The 'terrorism' of properly chosen pirates, or of such enemies as Nicaraguan or Salvadoran peasants who dare to defend themselves against international [U.S.] terrorist attack," Chomsky points out, "is an easier target." "The U.S. terrorist war in El Salvador is not a topic of discussion among respectable people; it does not exist," he concludes. xxx Therefore, the database, yet valuable for understanding nonstate attacks, fails to take into account the Latin American experience and, therefore, should remain suspect for students of Latin American politics.

Turning specifically to state-sponsored terror, PTS aims to be a sophisticated dataset on political terror. xxxi Using numerical scale from 1 to 5 (1 being the least amount of terror and 5 being the most), the researchers deserve accolades for bringing state terror and human rights to the forefront of scholarly debate. Despite operationalizing terror in a thorough manner and demonstrating a genuine interest in examining human rights, the dataset falls short by relying on two limited English-centric US-based sources: The Department of State and Amnesty of International. Despite having a wealth of information, both sources suffer from severe biases. First, the State Department is a politicized governmental entity aimed at supporting friends and delegitimizing enemies. Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett remind scholars of the intrinsic problems when we rely solely on governmental archival data. "It is well known that those who produce classified policy papers and accounts of decisions," George and Bennett point out in their widely-read book Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, "often wish to leave behind a self-serving historical record." xxxii This could not be truer than for Latin America, Washington's "backyard." The Department of State has developed reports on political violence, human rights, and democracy, in the words of Latin Americanist Lars Schoultz, as "no more than a propaganda weapon to be pulled out of a nation's arsenal whenever strategic considerations indicated it would be useful." xxxiii It is no wonder why democratic governments such as Bolivia under President Evo Morales Ayma (2006-present) is oddly coded as having more political terror than Bolivia under the brutal racist dictatorship of Hugo Banzer Suárez (1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978). xxxiv Amnesty International also suffers from serious weaknesses. Most importantly, critics of AI stress that the NGO's proximity to both the United States and United Kingdom's foreign policy interests has significantly affected its work. xxxv Despite its methodological value, PTS suffers from source limitations. xxxvi The research presented here, however, advances a more thorough and unbiased dataset on political terror. First, this study was carried out with no external funding. Governmental preferences had no influence over the results. The goal is to find, in the words of famed sociologist Max Weber, "inconvenient facts" that may challenge one's preconceived notions and/or interests. xxxvii But possibly more important, this work relies upon a wide range of open-source information in both Spanish and English and does not limit sources to U.S.-centric and English-based, as well as opposition-biased, reports. xxxviii Opposition sources such as the news outlet El Universal and the very anti-Chavista outlet Lapatilla.com are consulted. However, sources supportive of the Bolivarian Revolution such as Venezuelaanalysis.com are also used to balance the information. Sources considered middle-of-the-road (one example is the Venezuelan daily Noticias24.com) further helps make sense of the data. In the end, hundreds of sources in Spanish and English are consulted to develop a dataset that can be considered objective. The research here does not claim to advance a comprehensible end-all understanding of the Venezuelan crisis. Nonetheless, it does have significant advantages over the more politicized literature and datasets noted above. Results, presented below, are included to allow for a greater understanding, as well as data collection transparency, of the crisis.

Graph 1

Graph 2

Graph 3 Graph 4

The New York Times and Empirical Analysis

From the beginning of 2014 to roughly the beginning of 2015, Venezuela experienced widespread protests, particularly in areas where opposition to President Maduro continues to have strong support. The opposition attributes the rise of protests to the government's increasing authoritarian rule and mismanagement of the economy. For the opposition, Chavismo has politicized public institutions and led to economic disaster, creating scarcity and inflation. xxxix Supporters of Chavismo, on the other hand, attribute the aggressive protests to a number of other factors. First, they cite the failure of the opposition to make strong gains in the local elections following the close presidential race between Capriles and Maduro. Instead of being able to defeat Chavismo in the ballot box, "la Salida" (the exit) became the rallying cry for the violent protesters, most of whom are related to the now-imprisoned Leopoldo Lopez. Second, defeated presidential hopeful Capriles shook hands with Maduro, conceding defeat. The economy, which did not change from the election in the following years, serves as a pretext for initiating the violent overthrow of democracy and returning to the old ruling oligarchical elite. xl The NYT showed increasing interest in Venezuela when the protests emerged in earnest in the beginning of 2014. xli During the time period under study, the Venezuelan crisis was mentioned in thirty-three articles. Eighteen articles were international news stories with journalist William Neuman serving as the principal author for all but three. Girish Gupta, Simon Romero, Victoria Burnett, and María Eugenia Díaz were also contributors. The NYT did not limit its attention to the international section. The crisis appeared in one editorial, one national news story, five opinion pieces, and seven blogs. Venezuelan politics even emerged in the sports section. Two Venezuelan baseball players in the league threw in their support for the opposition protest. The question becomes, what do we really know about this time period in Venezuelan politics?

This research finds that the NYT accurately covered the political violence initially carried out by governmental entities. The Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Servicio Bolivariano de Inteligencia Nacional) (SEBIN) was involved in two notable acts of terror at the beginning of the crisis. On February 12 th , 2014, members of SEBIN were responsible for the death of Bassil Alejandro Dacosta, a twenty-three-year old student and protestor. Almost immediately after Dacosta's death, SEBIN utilized excessive violence again, leading to the death of Robert Redman, a thirty-one-year-old protester, on the same day. During the time under study, nine civilians were killed at the hands of the government or governmental supporters. The government committed further acts of terror through the violent dispersion of protesters and raids on the offices of opposition candidates. These acts often led to scores of injured protesters and the imprisonment of opposition figures Leopoldo Lopez, Vicencio Scarano Spisso, mayor of the municipality San Diego, and Daniel Ceballos, the mayor of San Cristóbal. As table 1 and Graph 1 demonstrate, out of the twenty-two acts of violence found, the majority, 55%, is coded as high. Medium and low acts of political violence compromise of 40.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Table 4 offers an in-depth view of the NYT's coverage. The international and national news sections, opinion pieces, blogs, and an editorial covered the nine deaths, dispersion of the protesters, and the raids on opposition candidates, as well as other acts of violence such as the repression of media outlets and even the monitoring of people.

This research finds, however, that the NYT significantly underreported political violence perpetrated by the opposition. Despite two articles in which no attribution for violence is made, coverage exclusively focuses on governmental political violence and fails to report any damage or death attributable to the protesters (see both Table 3 andGraph 4). Despite this notable lack of coverage, the opposition committed the majority of political violence during the time under study xlii . Table 2 lists the political violence attributable to the opposition protesters and Graph 3 compares the amount of opposition violence to that of the government. Opposition violence makes up 69.4% of the overall political violence. Similar to the violence carried out by the government, the majority is coded as high at 68% (see Graph 2). Medium and low violence reflect 28% and 4%, respectively.

One of the most shocking series of deaths and injuries took place during the time in which neighboring residents and governmental officials tried to clear the demonstrators' barricades (barricadas) that blocked the circulation of traffic. Barricades are a common sight during demonstrations in Latin America. xliii Sooner or later acting police officials and/or neighboring residents clear the areas to resume the normal movement of traffic.

In the case of Venezuela, members of the opposition would return and use sniper fire to intentionally harm those removing the barriers. This form of violence took five lives and injured three. One noteworthy death was Chilean student and single mother Giselle Rubilar. The forty-seven-year-old was studying a master's degree in education when she was shot helping remove a barricada in her neighborhood in the state of Merida. Giselle died a day later from her wounds in the hospital in the University of Merida. Two others were wounded with her. xliv Additionally, members of the Venezuelan National Guard and police force were killed or severely injured in this fashion. Opposition violence was not limited to attacking those clearing the barricades. Other acts of notable violence includes the use of arson. During violent demonstrations, protesters lit governmental buildings and transportation vehicles on fire, which led to property damage, bodily harm, and even death. The opposition also periodically attacked Cuban doctors, in some cases using arson. Since there are a number of documented cases is so high (162), this act of terror is coded as Very High. xlv The other Very High act of violence is also attributable to the opposition (see Table 2).

Since the vast majority of political violence is committed by the opposition, protesters are responsible for the majority of deaths. Of the thirty-one causalities found at the time, twenty-one is attributable to the opposition and ten to the government. Coverage also overlooked one of the most brutal and shocking acts of political violence: The death of Robert Serra and his partner María Herrera. Serra and Herrera were both brutally murdered at home in Caracas. Apart from a short Associate Press article that appeared on October 2, 2014, there is no indicative of an in-depth article of the mysterious and brutal deaths that shocked Venezuela. The youngest congress person ever elected in Venezuela, Serra was a rising star in Chavez' wing of the socialist party and considered a popular candidate for a future presidential run. Evidence suggests that the murder was not a conventional robbery, but a political assassination. xlvi Former Colombian President (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998) and Secretary of UNASUR (2014-present) Ernesto Samper stated, "The assassination of the young legislator Robert Serra in Venezuela is a worrying sign of the infiltration of Colombian paramilitarism" xlvii . Conversely, the NYT invested significant journalistic resources into covering the death of Alberto Nisman, the Argentine prosecutor suspiciously found dead under The Center-left government of Cristina Elisabet Fernández de Kirchner (2007Kirchner ( -2015)). xlviii Lesser, yet notable violence was completely ignored. In one salient case that took place in early March of 2014, a trio of Telenovela stars and a female news presenter were attacked by opposition protesters. The incident later became known as the "cacerolazo." While leaving the Caracas restaurant El Hatillo, Venezuelan actors Roque Dalton, Jorge Reyes, Venezuelan news presenter Kenyú Suárez, and Dalton's Colombian actress wife Alejandra Sandoval found themselves trapped within the restaurant against their will for over three hours by violent protesters. Sandoval, who was hit a number of times, had to protect her young son during the incident. The stars were attacked for their sympathies toward Chavismo. They later gave emotional speeches at a rally with President Maduro. xlix

It is also worth noting that the NYT drew no attention to the counter protests and movements that continue to seek indemnification for opposition violence. Venezuelan cities were full of not only anti-governmental protests, but also pro-governmental ones as well. What is more, since the opposition protesters committed a great deal of political violence, a prominent group, the Committee of Victims of Guarimba Violence, developed to help those negatively affected. The group became famous for demanding indemnity far beyond Venezuela. Members have been presenting their case before the United Nations since 2014. l The NYT also drew no attention to the governmental responses to the excessive violence. The Venezuelan government tried and prosecuted up to eight officials for their participation in the death and injuries of protesters. In addition to failing to report so much surrounding protester violence, the NYT did not cover the extensive opposition violence that fell outside the demonstrations. In November of 2014, in the midst of the protests, the Association of Relatives of Assassination Victims (Asociación de Familiares de Víctimas de Sicariato -Asofavisi) among other activist groups protested against the roughly one hundred and seventyeight killings of rural peasants by the hands of the wealthy landowner elite. ASOFAVISI collected seventeen thousand signatures to create a law protecting the peasantry from such acts of terror. li One hundred and seventy-eight is significantly more than the forty plus deaths that occurred during protests. As a result, it may not be how many are killed and wounded, but WHO is killed and wounded. Roughly six months later, peasant leader Roberto Carrera was assassinated in Carabobo State. Again, this incident was not reported by the NYT.

Implications

The data and results presented here do not suggest a conclusive and comprehensive understanding of the Venezuelan crisis. Despite developing thorough and rigorous datasets that were used to measure the extent to which the NYT covered Venezuelan politics over a period of time, future research and commentary is necessary. Nonetheless, the results strongly suggest a steady bias of media coverage for the time under study. The NYT focused exclusively on political violence carried out by the government and failed to cover any by the opposition. One unaddressed question inevitably emerges: Why would the NYT, one of the world's most prestigious media outlets, offer such a lopsided view of events? The data collected in this research offer no special insight into why the NYT would fail to report opposition violence. But there is no shortage of theories explaining why mainstream new outlets tend to reflect a nation's foreign policy interests. Regardless of the reasons, the failure to report the opposition's political violence has serious implications for how the outlined world interpret and understand the Venezuelan crisis because it distorts events in a number of ways. Most importantly, it creates and perpetuates a narrative in which the opposition is peaceful and the government is violent. The NYT's coverage stresses a peaceful opposition throughout its coverage. The editorial piece, for instance, openly sides with the protesters, claiming that the opposition and López "peacefully called for Mr. Maduro's resignation." liv The results in this study, however, challenge the prevailing wisdom. The opposition has relied on a significant amount of violence, possibly more than the government itself.

What is more, one must imagine if protesters in any major U.S. city relied on sniper fire to injure governmental police officials. The outrage in the United States would be harsh.

No local, state, or federal government would allow this to take place. By failing to report not only opposition violence, but its brutality, readers fail to put governmental responses in context. Of course, this is not to exonerate governmental political violence.

As coded, the government has carried political violence. Nor does this research exonerate the recent waves of violence from protests attributable to the closure of the National Assembly. However, the black-and-white analysis of peaceful opposition and violent government must be reassessed. Venezuelan politics, like tat in any part of the world, are extremely complex. The study presented here is a modest step toward broadening our view and putting us in a better position to understand this very difficult xxxvi The opinion here is that PTS could correct its weaknesses by diversifying its sources and including area specialists.

xxi

  This is not to say there are no reliable datasets on Latin America. For a very in-depth and thorough dataset (based in Latin America) on the conflict in Colombia, see Jorge Restrepo, et al. "The Severity of the Colombian Conflict: Cross-Country Datasets versus New Micro-Data." Journal of Peace Research, 43, no. 1 (2006): 99-115. xxii Herman, E. and Brodhead, F. Demonstration Elections: U.S.-Staged Elections in the Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and El Salvador (Boston: South End Press, 1984). xxiii Murray, Craig. Murder in Samarkand. Edinburgh: Mainstream Publishing, 2006. xxiv For the full interview and a deeper understanding of Cruz' role in the 1979 Nicaraguan Revolution, see Stephen Kinzer. "Ex-Contra Looks Back, Finding Much to Regret." New York Times. Jan. 8, 1988. http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/08/world/ex-contra-looks-back-finding-much-to-regret.html.

xxxvii

  The quote is lifted from William David Du Bois and Dean R. Wright. Politics in the Human Interest: Applying Sociology in the Real World. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books (2008): 15. See chapter 2 for a full description of Weber's famous saying. xxxviii This does not mean that the opposition does not get a say. Coding takes into account opposition sources such as el Universal and Tal Qual. xxxix The online newspaper TalCualDigital.com, created by opposition figure Teodoro Petkoff, offers insight into how much of the opposition views the presidencies of Chavez and Maduro. xl Sources sympathetic to the Bolivarian Revolution, such as Venezuelaanalysis.com and the U.S. think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research have communicated this interpretation of events.

Table 1 :

 1 Political Violence by Government

	Date	Location	Act of Terror	Result	Level
	February	Caracas	Attack of student protesters by Servicio	Death of Bassil Alejandro	High
	12, 2014		Bolivariano de Inteligencia Nacional	Dacosta
			(SEBIN)
	Feb. 12	Caracas	Attack of student protesters by SEBIN	Death of Robert Redman	High
	Feb. 12	Caracas	Attack of student protesters by SEBIN	Death of Juan Montoya, 53	High
				(Chavista)
	Feb. 13	Caracas	Abuse of detainees by La Guardia Nacional	Juan Manuel Carrasco makes	Medium
			Bolivariana (GNB)	official complaint of torture
	Feb. 17	Caracas	Three raid of Voluntad Popular's (political	Infringement of rights	Medium
			party) office

Table 2 :

 2 Political Violence by Opposition

	Date	Location	Act of Terror	Result	Level
	February 12,	Caracas	Attack against Public Ministry	23 injured governmental workers	High
	2014		with firebombs
	Feb. 12 to	Caracas, among other	Attacks against over 100 metro	Over 200 passengers injured	Very
	May 12	major cities	buses with firebombs and other		High
			arms
	Feb. 12	Throughout Venezuela Physical attacks against up to	Injuries against doctors include	Very
	throughout		162 Cuban doctors and facilities	burning doctors and severe	High
	the year			property damage
	Feb. 15	Chacao, Caracas and	Attacks against Ministries of	Property destroyed and people	High
		Los Teques, Miranda	Transportation with gunshots	dispersed
			and firebombs

Table 4 :

 4 Coverage by New York Times

	Publication Date	Author	Act of Terror or Abuse

February 12, 2014 W. Neuman Two killed in peaceful protest. Protesters attribute killings to government and government to "fascist" protesters N/A High Feb. 14 W. Neuman Two opposition protesters and one governmental supporter dead N/A High Feb. 18 W. Neuman Opposition leader Leopaldo Lopez turns himself in to authorities after being charged with murder and terrorism; repression of protesters, media, Lopez' political party the http://www.coha.org 1

  The most widely-cited and discussed theory continues to be Chomsky and Hermann's "propaganda model," developed in the 1988 book Manufacturing Consent. Countries that were considered "enemies" received unfavorable coverage, while friendly ones were given more favorable reporting. Fair and free presidential elections(1984) inNicaragua (1984), a country the Reagan Administration(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989) deemed hostile, attracted only negative coverage, whereas faulty elections in El Salvador (1982), a staunch anti-communist ally, drew positive reports. lii Additional research has confirmed mainstream media's reflection of U.S. official policies. Drawing upon four U.S. newspapers (the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, LA Times, and USA Today), Desai et al. discover that the discourse on waterboarding is less likely to be referred to as "torture" when carried out by the United States. The researchers further find that from 1930 until 2004, when the waterboarding scandal broke, a shift took place in characterizing the act as torture. Instead, the word torture was rarely used and replaced with softer vocabulary such as "objectionable." liii

  Baum, Matthew and Zhukov, Yuri. "Filtering revolution: Reporting bias in international newspaper coverage of the Libyan civil war." Journal of PeaceResearch 52, no. 3 (2015): 385. Since the rise of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has been the subject of intense political debate. One of the most colorful exchanges to develop is between actor Sean Penn, a vociferous supporter of Hugo Chavez, and his former co-star from the movie Colors (1988) actress María Conchita Alonso. Alonso, a Cubanborn naturalized Venezuelan citizen and vehement critic of Chavez, called Penn a "communist a-hole" in an informal heated exchange in LAX airport. Penn responded by calling her a "pig." Bond, Paul. "Maria Conchita Alonso and Sean Penn Get Into Heated Shouting Match Over Hugo Chavez Comments (Audio)." The Hollywood Reporter. Dec 19, 2011. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sean-penn-mariaconchita-alonso-hugo-chavez-275477) xiii For a good example, see the NYTs' Letter to the Editor by Oliver Stone, Mark Weisbrot, and Tariq Ali. "Oliver Stone's Latin Film." [Letter to the Editor]. New York Times. July 24, 2010. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0DE6D91F30F937A15754C0A9669D8B63xiv In an article, the newspaper concedes that some coverage "was not as rigorous as it should have been" and "was insufficiently qualified or allowed to stand unchallenged." "From The Editors; The Times and Iraq." New York Times. May, 26 2004. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/26/world/from-the-editorsthe-times-and-iraq.html?_r=0xv The ad was published on Wednesday, September 9 th , 2015 under The Truth About the Venezuela-Colombia Border Situation. The coding presented here can later be put in numerical form for regression analysis and agent-based modelling. For the purpose of this study, I draw upon simple descriptive statistics.

September 18, 2017 •coha@coha.org• http://www.coha.org 6 venezuela/ xi xii xvi For more on recent protests and the Constituent Assembly, see the following: "Venezuela crisis. What is behind the turmoil?" BBC, May 4, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877. Pannell, J. "Examining the 8 million -An Analysis of Venezuela's Constituent Assembly Vote." COHA. Aug. 3, 2017. http://www.coha.org/examining-the-8-million-an-analysis-of-venezuelas-constituentassembly-vote/. xvii Saldaña, J. The Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers (2nd ed). Los Angeles: SAGE Publications, 2013. xviii Only two cases get the coding for "Very High." The reason is the sheer number of victims that could have been coded individually: a.) over 100 metro buses firebombed with 200 injuries; and b.) up to 162 attacks against Cuban doctors throughout Venezuela. xix xx Booth, John A., Wade, Christine J. and Walker, Thomas. Understanding Central America. 5th ed. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2008): 232.

  Krennerich, Michael. "Esbozo de la historia electoral nicaragüense." Revista de Historia 7 (I). Instituto de Historia de Nicaragua, Universidad Centroamericana,Managua, 1996. Bigwood, Jeremy. "Freedom House: The Language of Hubris." NACLA (Summer, 2012): 59-63. Atrocities carried out by the government of the Somoza Dynasty and Salvadoran death squads are well-documented. For Nicaragua, see Booth, Wade, and Walker. 2006. For El Salvador, consult the following thinktank and book, respectively: Spence. Jack and Vickers, George. "Toward a Level Playing Field: A Report on Post-War Salvadoran election process." Cambridge, MA: Hemisphere Initiatives, 1994. Wood, Elizabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003. For in-depth coverage of the Massacre of el Mozote, see Danner, Mark. The Massacre at El Mozote. New York, NY: Vintage Books, 1994. Téllez, Dora María. Interview with author, July, 2012. Chomsky, Noam. Pirates and Emperors, Old and New: International Terrorism in the Real World (New York: Haymarket Books, 2015): xix and 42. To obtain a general understanding of PTS, see Wood, Reed M. and Gibney, Mark. "The Political Terror Scale (PTS): A Re-introduction and a Comparison to CIRI." Human Rights Quarterly 32, no. 2 (2010): 367-400. George, Alexander and Bennett, Andrew. Case Study and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (2005): 101. Schoultz, Lars. Beneath the United States: A History of U.S. Policy toward Latin America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (1998): 4. For more well-documented work on the U.S. and propaganda, see the following books by Schoultz: Human Rights and United States Policy toward Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981. National Security and United States Policy toward Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1987. This is based on the aggregate Department of State terror scores of the tenure of each leader. For general criticism, see former AI board member Francis Boyle's interview in Dennis Bernstein and Dr. Francis Boyle" Discuss the Politics of Human Rights." CovertAction Quarterly Summer (2002): 73, 9-12, 27. Related to Venezuela, see the following: Pearson, Tamara. "Amnesty International Opposes Venezuelans Defending Their Human Rights." Venezuelanalysis. March 23, 2014. https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/10524. Mallett-Outtrim, Ryan. "Amnesty International Whitewashes Venezuelan Opposition Abuses." Venezuelanalysis. March 31, 2015. https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11304.

xxv xxvi xxvii xxviii xxix xxx xxxi xxxii xxxiii xxxiv xxxv

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