Enrique Wulff

CANCER REGISTRIES IN SPAIN : A historical perspective

The oldest form of cancer registration in Spain was carried out in 1902 as a census of all cancer patients then under medical treatment. But the Spanish modern history of the cancer registry begins at Zaragoza in 1960. Previously the main source of the data on number of deaths attributed to cancer was the Spain"s National Institute for Statistics (INE). Marcelino Pascua appears as the prominent pioneer. Along half century the use of registry files has been limited and, for many important tumoral localisations (lung, stomach, bladder) the population registers do not cover the provinces where there is a greater mortality. 61 hospital-based cancer registries and 23 population-based cancer registries are currently at work in Spain. 17 of them are associated to the international cancer registries network (IACR). This study is aimed at analysing the historical complexities of cancer registries in Spain. An special effort has been delivered to the prominent role of Spanish associates with IACR. And as a success story the national paediatric oncology registry is featured. These registries were identified by means of a bibliographic database search and by way of a 2500 entries specific database for the national childhood tumours registry. The chronology of cancer registration and studies of incidence for Spain is established from 1960. Spain"s hospital tumour registry follow-up studies are described. Childhood cancer mortality decline and unsubstantial changes in incidence are timemapped in its spatial configurations. The Spanish literature on avoidable risks of cancer which use data from the cancer registries is bibliographically controlled, from 1960 to 1990. A historiographical algorithm has led to the establishment of the work patterns along the period and, by clustering the groups, the role as national promoter of the Valencia"s CSIC-University group is showed, and the importance of the Basque"s Government Cancer Registry is underlined from the late eighties. Knowledge circulation patterns are displayed, on different countries collaborating (8), distinct institutions involved (44), journals used along the years for publication (14), and principal subject categories (18). The classificatory scheme"s evolution of the national children tumour registry is finally supplied.

INTRODUCTION.-EARLY STUDIES.

. In Hamburg the demand for a collective statistics on cancer was expressed in 1899. And a year later, in Berlin, a committee for cancer research (Komitees für Krebsforschung) was established under the chairmanship of professor Ernst von Leyden. In an attempt to register all cancer patients under medical treatment in Germany a "key-day" campaign was organised on 15 October 1900 with the distribution of a questionnaire on the personality of the patient and his cancer disease.

The German initiative was met with great interest and was repeated in various European countries. And using the German questionnaires as a model a similar study was carried out in Spain on 1 September 1902. This census was the oldest form of the epidemiological cancer registry in Spain, and the third early census of cancer patients in Europe (after German and Holland) [START_REF] Wagner | The role of registry in cancer control[END_REF]. In the report on the campaign [START_REF] Leyden | Bericht über die am I. September 1902 in Spanien veranstaltete Krebssammelforschung. In Gemeinschaft mit dem Vorstande des Komitees für Krebsforschung[END_REF] it was noted that, in the Health General Director Dr Ángel Pulido Fernández (1852-1932, a well-known supporter of the Sephardic culture) the enterprise found its most eager promoter. Spain counted 18.607.674 inhabitants. The approximate number of its physicians was indicated on 20,000. A total of 294 questionnaires with negative result and of 298 questionnaires with positive result were returned. Only the provinces of Almería (359.013 inhabitants) and Zamora (275.545 inhabitants) did not express themselves. The largest number of deaths because of cancer occurred in the province of Burgos with 0,068 %, the smallest province Oviedo with 0,021 %. Between the negative results Leyden discusses the Canary Islands and Ceuta results. For the positive results, the cases of illness of the city Gerona were referred as urban cases of cancer and as hospital reported cases of cancer. The results are compared between the German Reich and Spain, determining difference in terms of sex and the most frequent cancer localizations. Occupational conditions, heritability and infection, and the cooperation of special circumstances were also examined.

The sole purposes of these investigations were to obtain epidemiologically useful data for cancer control. The fate of the patients was of secondary interest. As the latency period of these pathologies are long, the prevention and the treatment performances of these initial statistics were very limited. Otherwise, all these early European censuses failed, because of the high number of missing reported cases, the unfeasibility of compulsory notification, and the inability to match the data obtained on a same individual from different sources. [START_REF] Terracini | A short history of pathology registries, with emphasis on cancer registries[END_REF] In 1926, M. ÍÑIGUEZ ORTIZ [ÍÑIGUEZ, 1926] expressed that the sentinel for cancer mortality events in Spain was the Record Office, that had been put into action in 1870 (and in 1880 appeared the first issue of the monthly bulletin of health and demographic statistics (Boletín mensual de estadísticas, demográfico-sanitarias)). In 1931, was created the Spanish League Against the Cancer ("Liga Española contra el Cancer").

The Spanish state had created in 1900 the Statistical General Service ("Servicio General de Estadística"), the ancestor of the Statistics National Institute ("Instituto Nacional de Estadística"). In Spain a long tradition exist on the compilation of vital statistics, and the first modern medical topography was published in 1686 "De Morbis endemiis Caesar Augustae" [START_REF] Balaguer | La primera "topografía médica moderna" en España : "De morbis endeiis Caesar Augustae[END_REF]. Nevertheless, the data published by the INE did not referred the mortality at a provincial level nor by age groups, neithjer by geographical localization. Both the dissertation (University Complutense (Madrid)) by M. OÑORBE DE TORRE [START_REF] Oñorbe De | Estudio epidemiológico y estadístico de la mortalidad por tumores en España (1901-74[END_REF] on the epidemiology and the statistics of the tumor mortality in Spain between 1901 and 1974, and the monograph by A PRIETO LORENZO [START_REF] Lorenzo | Mortalidad por tumores malignos en España 1951-1970[END_REF] on malignant tumor mortality in Spain between 1951 and 1970 point out the insufficiency of the data that published the INE. The absence of an adequate quality control of the data delivered began to change with the improvement of the quality of death certificates [START_REF] Bolumar | Changing mortality patterns for cancers in Spain, 1951-1985[END_REF] during the 1950s. Although the prominent pioneer and exiliated after 1939, Marcelino Pascua (Health General Director, 1931-1933, and Ambassador in Moscow (1936-38) and in Paris (1938-39) of the Spanish democracy) had created in 1935 an specific section on Epidemiology and Statistics, inside the Alfonso XIII Institute of Serotherapy, Inoculation and Bacteriology. [START_REF] Navarro | La salud pública como referencia histórica[END_REF] Dr Pascua was at the command of the WHO Statistics Department from its creation in 1948 until his retirement in 1957. Despite these discrepancies, ÍÑIGUEZ and OÑORBE agrees in that the cancer mortality in Spain duplicates between 1900and 1923(and OÑORBE extended the data until 1979)). With the 1910 censuses, the risk of infant cancer mortality was almost inexistent (0.15%, from 0 to 9 years, for each 10.000 inhabitants of the same age).

ÍÑIGUEZ calculated the high and law risk provinces for the different tumor localizations by using mortality rates per 10.000 inhabitants aged more than 40 years. He identified four zones of great cancer mortality in Spain. Maximum mortality was attributed to the area from Burgos to Madrid with a range of 280 to 320 per 100.000 inhabitants aged more than 40 years. Other neoplasic mortality zone focused in Barcelona, and extended to Gerona and Tarragona. La Coruña and Pontevedra, in the northwest, was a third region. And less delimited, the fourth cancer focus was in the Atlantic south region of Sevilla, Cádiz and Huelva.

OÑORBE showed a purpose to provide data on the occurrence of cancer"s death in the areas studied to implant cancer registries (in 1977). He estimated the data from ÍÑIGUEZ, previous to 1926. And by substracting the provincial incidence rate from the national incidence rate, he performed a tstudent test in order to estimate the significance of the difference. And also he calculated the growth of the mortality rate by determining the duplication rate (or time required for the rate to increase two-fold). For Valladolid, in the first ÍÑIGUEZ high risk zone, and between 1919 and 1965, the difference with the national rate is the most meaningful (with p=5.79, and 99% significance), but the rhythm of growth was the slower in Spain (with a 62 years time of duplication).

These early Spanish statistics of cancer refer to 1.3% of all the deaths. In 1950, when WHO created in Paris a "Committee on the Registration of Cases of Cancer as their Statistical Presentation", the cancer mortality in Spain reached 7% of all the causes of death. As "in the 1950"s, major technical problems for ensuring quality and effectiveness of population based registration of cancer and other conditions had been faced and solved" [START_REF] Terracini | A short history of pathology registries, with emphasis on cancer registries[END_REF], it was then that Spain began to control cancer through registries. It is also in 1951 that the 6 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) began to be employd in Spain (the 7 th revision was implanted in 1961, in 1968 the 8 th , in 1980 the 9 th ; from revision 6 th (1948) chapter II is reserved to neoplasia) [START_REF] García | Clasificación internacional de enfermedades 10ª revisión para oncología[END_REF]]. Under such favourable circumstances was created the Spanish Association Against Cancer ("Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer") as an associate to the International Union Against Cancer (UICC) in 1958.

POPULATION-BASED CANCER REGISTRIES

It is in this context that appears the dermatologist Antonio Zubiri [IARC Newsletter, 2000], from the University of Zaragoza. A politician (at the head of the Spanish University Union of Zaragoza, in 1936), he was at the head of the Provincial Government of Zaragoza from 1954-1970, and throughout his career he served as Director of the Dermatological Service of the Provincial Health Authority. A medical historian, he contributed on the 1870-1970 history of dermatology and venerology in Aragon. Overall, in 1960 he initiated the population-based cancer registry of Zaragoza, the first in Spain, with the help of the Spanish Association Against Cancer. Zubiri published the Zaragoza incidence data of the five quinquennium until 1984. His early work included the Spanish change in 1968 from the 7 th to the 8 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, a modification with profound effects in Spain, associated to many tumors in these years of death (see, http://www2.uca.es/hospital/TM/inmmreho.pdf). It was also in 1968 that the first International Association of Cancer Registries was created. Also a politician and physician, José Javier Viñes, the Navarra General Director of Health in 1980 (senator of the conservative Partido Popular from 1989 to 1993) created in 1970, the populationbased cancer registry of Navarra from the head of the Provincial Health Authority where he served between 1968-1978, as an initiative of the Spanish Association Against Cancer. Viñes publications comprises the Navarra incidence data for the quinquennium 1973-1981.

The success of these two initial Spanish Association Against Cancer supported registries was consolidated with the inclusion of their data in the Lyon"s International Agency for Cancer Research volumes "Cancer Incidence in Five Continents" (Zaragoza initial inclusion was in 1976vol. III (data for 1968-72), and Navarra and Tarragona in 1982, vol. IV (data for 1973-77)).

In June 1976, as OÑORBE [PRIETO LOZANO et al, 1978] explains, the General Direction of Health, based in Madrid, promoted the creation of a National Network of Cancer Registries. The Plan was centered in the National Oncology Institute, whose main responsible for the 1979 Annual report was Dr. Carda Aparici (an associated in the 1940"s to Dr Enríquez de Salamanca, the 1939 Dean and political judge of the Faculty of Medicine in Madrid). The Institute was later dismantled as a "bureaucratic institute without modern ideas of research", said Dr Segovia de Arana, the Secretary of State for Health 1979-80 [VANCCHIERI, 1993]. The new registries were opened inside the Provincial Health Authorities of Oviedo, Tenerife, Sevilla, Talavera de la Reina and Valladolid. The population of the cancer registries zones supposed some 13.51% of the Spain"s population (after the 1970 Census). And the workflow design included jobs for a social assistant, a clerical, the collaboration of the provincial epidemiologist (formerly denominated the health statistician), the scheme under the supervision of the head of the Provincial Health Authority.

According to the 1969 Latin American Seminar on Cancer Registries (Cali (Colombia)) the Plan underlined the need of an operational connection between the public health service and the epidemiological service through the put into practice of the hospital register book, the specially required coordination between the Spanish Statistics Institute Provincial Delegations * and the Provincial Health Authorities because of the, essential, for the cancer register protocols, detailed knowledge of the cancer death cases. The necessity to overcome the reserves in performing autopsies was also emphasized.

Dr Rafael Abad (1933( -2003, La , La Sorbonne Doctor, professor of Therapeutics at the Cádiz Faculty of Medicine, and Head of the Radiotherapy Oncology Service, Ramon y Cajal Hospital (Madrid), 1971(Madrid), -2003)), from the Preventive Medicine Section in the Health Ministery (Madrid) was put at the head and the Plan was internationally reported in meetings such as the Oporto 1980 May "Group for the Epidemiology and Cancer Registry in the Latin-Language Countries" Workshop.

Eventually these registries were organised after the MacLennan et al. "Cancer registration and its techniques", published by IARC in 1978. But the Plan failed. Only the Asturias Cancer Registry pervived. The absence of research on the Medical Records associated to the Registers (registry records are matched each year with hospital records and cancer death certificates), collapsed their potential as information disseminator and incidence results data were never published. In 1985, facing the absence of any Cancer National Plan, the Spanish Federation of Oncological Societies (FESEO) publishes in 1988 a White Book of the Oncology in Spain, where recommendations were made for the creation of populationbased and hospital-based cancer registries in the unprovided geographical areas. Also, in 1985, was launched, in the countries of the EEC, the program "Europe Against Cancer", with professor Jordi Estapé (Barcelona) as the Spanish Representative. The second phase of this program, 1990-1994 period, included the prevention and early detection of cancer through the promotion of Registries.

The failure of the Health Ministery registries is to contrast with those registers supported by the Spanish Association Against Cancer. And associated to it, in 1979, began to work the Tarragona population-based register that published a first monograph in 1984 with data for 1981, and which last available period is 1993-1997.

Along the 1980s, and reflecting the structural changes in Spain, regional authorities succeeded in the establishment of population-based cancer registries. Such were the cases of the Murcia Registry, created in 1981, and that published initial incidence data in 1985, on the year 1982; and of the colorectal monograph population-based Mallorca Island Registry, created in 1982, and lately to become the population-based cancer registry of the Balearic Islands, which last incidence data are available for the period 1993-1996. The Granada province was founded in 1985, at the Andalusian School of Public Health, which has published its last incidence data on the period 1993-1997. Coincidental with Spain membership in the European Union the Basque Country population-based registry was created in 1986, with last incidence data published for the period 1988-1991. These 8 population-based Spanish cancer registries, created before 1986, accords with the recently established [START_REF] Iglesias | Características de 107 registros sanitarios españoles y valoración de su utilización[END_REF] median for the creation date of the Cancer Registries in Spain, that fixes this data in 1986.

After 1986, 7 more cancer registries have been created. The Childhood Cancer Registry of the province of Valencia, that was created in 1989, served a population of 476.638 persons between 0-14 years, used 102 source of information, offered the first incidence results for the period 1983-1987, and * INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística from 1992 supplies survival data. The Albacete Cancer Registry that started in 1990 and which last available data period is 1993-1997. The Canary Islands population-based cancer registry that was created in 1993 (although the extinct Tenerife Cancer Registry (from the Ministerial 1978 Plan) continued to rule from 1985 as a mortality register) and offered data 1993-1996. The La Rioja Cancer Registry and the Tumor Registry of Cantabria, both inside their respectives Provincial Health Authorities Offices. The Cuenca Cancer Registry founded in 1993 and having produced data for 1993-1997. And the very important Gerona Cancer Registry established in 1994, starting from the breast cancer-population registry that was functioning at the Hospital of Santa-Caterina.

Other population-based cancer registry enumerated by the Scientific Foundation of the Spanish Association Against Cancer are those in Málaga, the Gynecological and Breast Cancer Registry of Castille and León in Valladolid, the General Medicine Cancer Incidence and Mortality register in Ávila, Talavera de la Reina, Guadalajara, Toledo and Guipúzcoa.

For many important tumoral localisations (lung, stomach, bladder) the population registers do not cover the provinces where there is a greater mortality [START_REF] Abente | State of the cancer in Spain : incidence[END_REF]. The literature pointsout the great interest of a population-based registry in some regions and underlines the fact that some areas, because of their singular environmental situation, require the monitoring of the cancer evolution and incidence pattern.

IACR homologates 15 population-based cancer registries in Spain, 11 voting members, and 4 Associate members. Two more hospital-based specific cancer registries form part also of IACR, the Leukaemia multi-centers Spanish register based in Madrid, and the Spanish National Childhood Cancer Registry based in Valencia, both IACR Associates.

When considering the research papers published by the Spanish population-based cancer registries a bibliographic search was performed in Medline, from its beginning in 1966 until September 2002, and into the Spanish Medical Index (IME) between 1970 and 2000 October [START_REF] Iglesias | Características de 107 registros sanitarios españoles y valoración de su utilización[END_REF]. The 15 Spanish IACR linked population-based registries plus the Toledo and the Guipúzcoa Cancer Registries produced 144 research articles. The papers were classified only after its aims and design. Mostly the publications were studies on the disease frequency, that scrutinize the incidence, mortality, and distribution of the disease; the methodological studies on the characteristics and quality of the Register, and the etiological studies.

HOSPITAL-BASED CANCER REGISTRIES

In Spain, the standard is that 400 new tumor-cases yearly justify a hospital-based cancer registry. After the Spanish Association Against Cancer (AECC), some 61 hospital-based cancer registries exist in Spain. The June 1976 Cancer Registries National Plan designed the establishment of a hospital -based cancer registry in the Oncological National Institute (Madrid), as a model for the creation of a network all along the country. Although the Plan was finally discarded, in Spain the Commission for the Specialty in Medical Oncology credited the hospital-based cancer registry as a requisite for the specialized teaching.

[PERIS [START_REF] Bonet | Usos de los registros hospitalarios de cáncer para la gestión[END_REF] A change was promoted in the "Tumors Technical Commissions" that existed as a rule in the state hospitals, with the creation of the Ministery of Health and Social Welfare in 1977. The new design implied that Intra-hospitals tumor registers were to be developed after the Commission. Important hospital-based cancer registers evoluted until become population-based cancer registers. Early Spanish cases were the hospital-based cancer registry from the savings bank of Guipúzcoa (Guipúzcoa Oncological Institute) that changed in 1982 to serve the 689.216 inhabitants of the Guipuzcoa province as a demographic-base registry. The Asturias General Hospital registry that was one of the first automated Spanish cancer registry, and the Sta Caterina Hospital of Gerona to which can be traced back the Gerona population-based cancer registry.

As networks of hospital-based cancer registries, the Cancer Registry of the Valencia Community (RTCV) that started in 1986 with a program promoted by the Valencia Regional Government, the University of V alencia and CSIC, and that was regulated by a decree of August 1989; the Madrid network of hospital-based tumor registries implying 6 hospital-based cancer registries, with a Regional Authority Coordination Office in Madrid, and based into an idyosincratic "Exchange System of Cancer Data from the Madrid Community" (SIDC), affiliated to "The International Cancer Patient Data Exchange System" (ICPDES). And the "National Registry of Heart Tumors", a Spanish Society of Cardiology (SEC) histopathology workshop result, that offered as its first results 165 tumors in 155 patients, for the years 1996 and 1997.

From the clinical point of view Spanish hospital-based registry permits the survival and pronostical factors studies. The screening of the hospital protocol follow-up, and the medical records quality. As we have exposed, from the epidemiological point of view, the hospital-based cancer registry become, in some cases, a data source for a population-based cancer registry development.

Between the nowadays Spanish 61 hospital-based cancer registries, two are IACR members. As a consequence of increasing specialization, a few epidemiological have developed which cover not all, but only very specific forms of cancer. They include:

The "Spanish Leukaemia Hospital Multicenter Registry" (REL, Madrid, Leukaemia Foundation);

The "National Childhood Cancer Registry" (RNTI-SEOP, Valencia); The "National Registry of Heart Tumors" (based in Madrid);

The "Castille and León Gynecological and Breast Cancer Registry" (Valladolid).

Since its inception in 1978, the Spanish National Chilhood Cancer Registry (RNTI-SEOP) is a central hospital-based registry that works in network. As a success story, RNTI is specially introduced.

SPANISH NATIONAL CHILHOOD CANCER REGISTRY (RNTI SEOP)

In 1978, was formed the Spanish National Childhood Cancer Registry (RNTI), thanks to professor Colomer, chief of Department of Pediatrics of the University of Valencia and of the Biomedical Center of Research and Informatics [START_REF] Mora | History of pediatric oncology in Spain[END_REF]. In fact, the International Society of Paediatric Oncology (SIOP) 1 st meeting was held in Madrid in 1969, organised by the pediatric surgeon Julio Monereo. And so it is why in a historical study it is important the early development that Spanish pioneers undertook in advances in paediatric oncology. [START_REF] Barnes | Caring and curing : paediatric cancer services since 1960[END_REF] After IACR information for the period 1990-1995, RNTI is as paediatric registry based in Valencia, with an age range of 0-14 years. Its aim is the national coverage (NCCR), and it is developed as a joint project of the Spanish Society of Paediatric Oncology (SEOP) and the Instituto López Piñero (CSIC-UV). In the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) database, the coverage is exhaustive in the regions of Aragon, Basque Country, Balearic Islands, Catalonia and Navarra (100%). There is a complete overlap with some general cancer registries, covering areas contained in the coverage of this national childhood registry: Basque Country, Mallorca (one of the Balearic Islands), Navarra, Tarragona and Gerona (provinces of Catalonia region), and Zaragoza (a province of Aragon region), the childhood registry covering larger regions. Patients are followed-up for vital status once a year by active follow-up through treating physicians. Date of death is also obtained from hospitals. RNTI was qualified in 1987 as the European highest volume monographic cancer registry [COLEMAN & DÉMARET, 1987]. The first figures of the RNTI (for 1980 to 1982) were published in February 1984 issue of the journal "Anales Españoles de Pediatría", that showed 1077 malignancies. At the chair of RNTI, was Dr Rafael Peris. Subsequent data were presented at the Santiago de Compostela, 1990, 12 th meeting of the Section of Pediatric Oncology (Spanish Association of Pediatry, AEP), with 5,094 pediatric tumors from 1980 to 1989. Research activities by the registry staff since its inception kept the completeness and validity of the data high. The survival for childhood cancers in Spain was assessed for cohorts 1980-82 and 1983-85. Five-year survival was relatively poor for Osteosarcoma (31.8% and 51.8%), and more encouraging for Hodgkin"s disease (80.6% and 86.5%) [START_REF] Vanchieri | Registries keep track in Spain[END_REF]. Survival reports are published regularly. For the period 1990-1995 non-malignant tumours were included with 31 CNS (Central Nervous System), and 1 germ cell; on completeness and quality, eg there were no DCO (death certificate only) cases, and two infants with unspecified carcinoma and 3 carcinomas in brain were included. In 2003, the data for the period 1980-1997 have been published.

From 1980, 13.000 paediatric oncology patients cases are registered on RNTI. Nowadays, RNTI registers an annual mean of 625 cases. Its quality indicators are: microscopically verified diagnostic in over 95% of the cases; active follow-up along 5 years in more than 90% of the cases, and mean coverage in Spain constituted 80% of the estimated incidence of childhood cancer. The childhood cancer in Spain, estimated from the data of RNTI in the IARC, is of 142.3 cases (both sexes considered, mean annual rate per million of children, fitted by ages after the world standard population).

The mean annual incidence, 1980-1997, distributed by ages and diagnostic groups, for all malignancies combined was 142.3. And was high for lymphoid leukaemia (32.6) and CNS tumors (30.6). The germ-cell tumors (3.7) and the Ewing"s sarcoma (3.0) ranged between the low incidences.

SPANISH LITERATURE WHICH USE DATA FROM THE CANCER REGISTRIES

The Spanish bibliography making usage of data coming from cancer registries has been published by authors that work in those registries and their collaborators, by the Weekly Epidemiological Bulletin (BES) from the Ministery of Health, and by the Spanish Association Against Cancer (AECC).

The BES has occasionally published data from some tumor registry. In 1981, the data from the Asturias population-based cancer registry first year of activity, 1978, has been exposed. The registered cases, the morbility and mortality raw rates, by localization and sex, are reported. With the data a small commentary details the more frequent localizations; the respiratory system and the intrathoracic organs in the case of the men, and the breast in the case of the women. Also the 1978 Ministerial Plan for the development of five population-based cancer registries was exposed along several issues of the BES. In the course of 1983, the issue Nº 1573 exposed the "Current situation in Spain" (of cancer registries), the issue Nº 1574 the "Distribution by age and sex", and the issue Nº 1575 the "Distribution by localizations". BES is still used for communicate news from the cancer registries, and in 2004 (BES, 2004, 30-31 week), detailed data coming from 10 Spanish population-based cancer registries after reported in the volume VIII of "Cancer incidence in five countries" (CIFC) were delivered.

The main number of publications come from hospital services (preventive medicine, etc.) authors that work in the cancer registries. Along the 1970"s and 1980"s the content of such publications basically presented cases tables along a certain periodeach year or each five-yearsby sex, age and localization (sometimes with graphics) and/or raw and fitted to the world standard population rates. Truncated incidence ratesor fitted by ages just considering the population between 35 and 64 yearsare included in publications from the Navarra (1988) and Murcia (1985) registers, and in a pilot study for the cancer registry in the Basque Country (1985). These two last works offer also cumulative incidence rates. More frequently localizations, expressed by tables and graphics, are also displayed by almost all the publications.

The most exhaustive publication for the two decades is the doctoral dissertation by [START_REF] Viñes | Los registros del cancer desde una óptica de salud pública[END_REF] for the Navarra Registry. A peculiarity is the calculation of the mean age of the tumor diagnostical occurrence; sex relative risk, and the annual evolution of the incidence in the five-year period studied 1973-77 are considered. International comparison techniques are employed, and the Navarra 1973-77 cancer incidence data appears to be contrasted with homologated tumor registries data from other geographical areas (Nigeria, Colombia, USA, India, Japan, Poland and Finland). In 1986, and for the same period Viñes and Ascunce compared the cancer incidence in Navarra with data coming from 37 European registries. And a result observed the inverse correlation between the lung and the larynx cancer A comparison between the incidence rates in Tarragona, Navarra, and Zaragoza was performed for certain localizations by BORRÁS in 1984. Tarragona was over Navarra and Zaragoza in skin, bladder and rectus-anus, both for men and women, in ovary and in prostate. In oesophagus and stomach Tarragona was under Navarra and Zaragoza. Bladder cancer rate in Tarragona was between the highest ever published. ZUBIRI (1985) compared the data from Zaragoza in 1980 with the validated for Asturias, Málaga, Navarra, Tarragona and Valladolid from 1980 and 1982. Zaragoza showed the highest rate for larynx, lung, women breast, and uterus collar. NAVARRO (1985) studied the Murcia cancer incidence. Using the data from the registry for comparisons with those from Navarra, Zaragoza, Tarragona, and the Mediterranean countries that publish their data in the volume IV of the IARC"s "Cancer Incidence in Five Continents" (CIFC). By using truncated standardized rates Murcia results are over the Spanish registries in what concerns results in lung cancer, but still under the UK, France, Italy and Yugoslavia. The fitted rate of larynx cancer in Murcia is over any of the published in the volume IV in CIFC. MICHELENA (1985), reporting on the incidence and mortality of cancer for the province of Guipúzcoa (1983) compared the incidence fitted rates for all clustered localizations, and for the more frequent localizations, by sex, with results from Navarra (1973-77), Zaragoza (1973-77), Tarragona (1981) and Alava-Vizcaya (1982-83). Skin tumors great incidence is underlined, both for women and men. IZARZUGAZA (1985) presented the standardized and truncated rates for diverse localizations and by sex, of various European registries, including Zaragoza and Navarra, in order to compare with both Vizcaya and Alava. The period was 1971-1977. Cervical, corpus uteri, ovary and women breast presented a very low incidence in the Spanish registries.

In the field of analytical epidemiology, ZUBIRI (1983) published an advancement of the clinical and epidemiological international study on larynx and hypo-larynx, where the Zaragoza Registry participated with those from Caen, Geneva, Navarra, Turin, Varese and Villejuif.

With the data from the Hospital of Santa-Caterina (Gerona)based cancer registry, BOSCH (1983) studied the intervals between the first symptom-first diagnostic, first diagnostic-first treatment, and the first symptom-first treatment. Lately, VILADIU (1985) studied a hospital-based women breast data series, by analyzing the interval between the first symptom-first diagnostic and the survival at the time of the diagnostic.

After the data in the monographic registers, LOZA (1983) published "Epidemiology of the Acute Leukaemia in Spain", based in the 1979 and 1980 data. A myeloid leukaemia dominance (with the exception of M-5) is pointed out for women, and an even stronger presence of lymphoid leukaemia appeared in the case of men. The author studies the temporal (monthly) variation of appearance of the diverse typology of leukaemia, determining a maximum in October for M-1, and that M-4 is more frequent than M-5, along the six first months of the year.

The Spanish National Childhood Cancer Registry (RNTI) published two monographs of basic statistics in the 1980"s PERIS (1986). It includes a summary of data, its source and place of notification, and crossed frequencies tables by age and sex, age and register year, morphology and register year. Also, age tables by sex for the main groups of tumors are provided, as like as the distributions of their extension. A chapter on mortality and survival includes the distribution of mortality by cause and year of death, and by morphology and year. Life tables for the five-years period (reckoned for month"s intervals) are also presented as much as the survival graphics estimated for the years 1980-82.

TIME VISUALIZATION OF RESEARCH ACTIVITY TAKING THE SPANISH CANCER REGISTRIES DATA AS A BASE.

The aim of this last paragraph is to deliver a visual summary of research activity derived from the Spanish cancer registries, in the international circulation knowledge scenario until 1990. This work identifies groups of documents produced by the registries after the citation rates over time in the database ISI. We display the temporal relations among the registries, by trying to understand the flow of information between them: which registers contribute knowledge and which registers are "borrowers" of knowledge. The tool used is the HistCite TM software. When managed by this program, documents are plotted along a horizontal track in the time line, with related cancer registries being plotted in nearby tracks according to the hierarchical structure produced during clustering. The vertical track displays the chaining time-line dependent events. Layout of time lines as shown in Figure 1 produces a simple, easily comprehendible visualization.

In these early times a great deal of the Spanish cancer registration based research has been performed in Spanish scientific literature. What was explored in Figure 1 is just a visual cue from initial temporal relations that display first research reported in the history of cancer registries in Spain as emerging from the database SCI [START_REF] Bourret | A new clinical collective for French cancer genetics : heterogeneous mapping analysis[END_REF].

The next is an exploration to infer the knowledge circulation patterns in terms of subject categories, countries collaborating, distinct institutions involved, and principal journal used. By examining the word frequency list (produced by HistCite TM ) the most cited term for this set of documents is "case-control" (423 citations). As the case-control study is the major methodology tool in cancer epidemiology so are the most detected acknowledgments to these studies in this set. Also, the results of the case-control study are to be converted into absolute incidence rates what improves its potential and explains its relevance in terms of citations. Larynx and Hypopharynx cancers are the particular localizations on which the most cited papers (203 citations) appears to be published; colorectal cancer exhibit also a noticeable quota of citations (170). Otherwise, a field-subject-category analysis indicates that other than on "Oncology" (42.5% of the scientific research), some of the preliminary topics were "Public environmental & Occupational health" (35%), General & Internal Medicine (10%), or pediatrics (5%). Contents like "Clinical neurology" (6%) or "surgery" (3%) that only now are to dither their placement in Spanish cancer registries were initially off the picture.

In this early times, the hierarchical display of the cancer registries by using the number of citations that they receive would be: Navarra (203 citations), Zaragoza (203 citations), Majorca (170 citations), Valencia (52 citations), Murcia (1 citation) and Barcelona (1 citation). Seven countries are associated with Spain in this research. France, because IARC is sited in Lyon, affords with 40% of the authorships" addresses, also Italy is to be outstanded (10%). Austria, Germany, Holland, Switzerland and Nodes authorship: Borrás: 8; Bosch: 2,6,8,9,18,19,20;Izarzugaza: 5,7,16,17;Navarro: 10;Peris: 1,3,15;Zubiri: 4,11,[START_REF] Barrios | Historia de la bioestadística : la génesis, la normalidad y la crisis[END_REF]13,14. Spanish Cancer Registries, in SCI. 1977-1990. the United Kingdom were also involved. Hospitals, where authors were more heavily at work, occurred in 13 paper"s addresses; research institutes were included as addresses in 10 papers, the International Agency for the Research on Cancer (IARC) appear in 9 articles, Universities"s Faculties and Departments in 4, Cancer Registries brought 3 documents (like Govt Dept), and the most reduced number of documents (2) was attributed to Research Fundations. English (76.2%) is by far the best preferred language at use by those employing the Spanish Cancer Registries data. The Spanish language was utilized in 4 articles. French was wanted in one occasion. Almost all the items were journal"s articles (90%), although also a note and a review article were retrieved.

The Spanish cancer registries, this home-brew research tools, display its production maximum in 1977 and 1988 providing some 38% of the total. The research became inactive in four years 1978, 1981, 1984 and 1987, shortly previous to the publication of the 4 important papers by Zubiri in 1988. Table I allows the visualization of the journals that carry on the papers published. As judged from citation counts the 3 Spanish journals participating results in 3 citations although they are a percentual 23% of the total number of journals employed and published 15% of the items.

Table 1 . Spanish Cancer Registries, in SCI. 1977-1990. Ranked Journal list. Total number journals: 13. Total number of publications (Pubs): 20. Total number of citations: 821.

Figure 1 .

 1 Figure 1. Historiographical algorithm.Spanish Cancer Registries, in SCI. 1977-1990.

Figure 1

 1 Figure 1 shows an example of a time line of 20 documents from the ISI Science Citation Index on the subject of cancer registries in Spain. We have selected a group of documents as a base. The documents that fall inside the definition are a selection of the identified papers written by Dr. Zubiri (Zaragoza), Dr. Viñes (Navarra), Dr. Borrás (Tarragona), Dr. Navarro (Murcia), Dr. Michelena (Guipúzcoa), Dr. Izarzugaza (Basque Country), Dr. Bosch (IARC, Barcelona) and Dr. Peris (Valencia). The emergence of this reference base knowledge occurs in 1977. The IARC Catalan officer Dr Bosch (351 citations), and prof. Peris (52 citations), the Director of RNTI (Valencia), forms a portal to the research field. Along the 1980"s it is possible to follow the creation of the Basque"s Country Cancer Registry (1986). Dr Izarzugaza (122 citations covers the trajectory from the Guipuzcoa hospital-based cancer registry to the common population-based Basque registry. The pioneer Dr. Zubiri (1960, 293 citations), Zaragoza, constructs the time line for 1988. His contributions deal with analytical epidemiology reporting on comparative studies with results in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Results from Murcia (Dr. Navarro, 3 citations) and Tarragona (Dr. Borrás, 25 citations) appears in 1985, and in 1986. Tarragona results are linked to Dr. Bosch (IARC) early publication (1977) through the coauthorship of Dr. Viladiu (Gerona Cancer Registry, 45 citations), former officer in the S. Pau Hospital -Barcelona. And Dr. Izarzugaza (Basque Country) is associated to the founder Dr. Zubiri (Zaragoza), and his IARC coauthors, through 1991 publications (data not showed). Performances from Dr. Viñes (on caries) and from Dr. Michelena (on artificial intelligence) were not included.

Name

TGCS Pubs

International


Alexandre Armand

David Filliat

Javier Ibanez-Guzman

Detection of Unusual Behaviours for Estimation of Context Awareness at Road Intersections

In general, Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) warn drivers once a high risk situation has been inferred. This is made under the assumption that all drivers react in the same manner. However, it is not the case as drivers react as a function of their own driving style. This paper proposes a framework which allows the estimation of the degree of awareness with regard to the focus object of the context that is governing the vehicle behaviour (e.g. the arrival to an intersection). The framework learns the manner in which individual drivers behave for a given context, and then detects whether or not the driver is behaving differently under similar conditions. In this paper the principles of the framework are applied to a fundamental use-case, the arrival to a stop intersection. Results from experiments under controlled conditions are included. They show that the formulation allows for a coherent estimation of the driver awareness while approaching to such intersections.

I. INTRODUCTION

Statistics have shown that most road accidents are due to human errors, inferred by factors such as distraction, tiredness, over speeds, etc [START_REF] Trace | Analyzing human factors in road accidents[END_REF]. These result in bad situation understanding which often leads to abnormal and dangerous situations.

Road intersections represent complex environments where over 40% of collisions and 20% of fatalities occur [START_REF]Traffic safety basic facts 2010 junctions. SafetyNet[END_REF]. Further, most of those involved in such collisions are young inexperienced drivers and the elderly. Given the complexity that exists at road intersections, namely the convergence of various entities to the same area, intersections represent a major challenge for ADAS.

An underlying framework for the estimation of unusual behaviours with regard to the road context and the driver individualities is presented. The tenet is that the vehicle evolves within a context which is built of contextual elements. These impose constraints to the subject vehicle, and usually one object has more influence than the rest. The framework takes into consideration this contextual object, and also the usual vehicle response (driver pattern) as it interacts with this object. This is then compared with the actual behaviour. If the driver actual behaviour differs much from the expected one, it is considered as unusual, which could be synonym of context misunderstanding and thus a source of risk. This concept is exploited in a simple scenario, road intersections. The aim of the framework is not to warn the driver when the situation becomes dangerous, but to make sure that the driver has all necessary information for coherent decision making.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section II includes results of the state of the art review for risk estimation at road intersections, followed by the problem formulation. In Section III, the proposed model of the framework is described, and Section IV presents preliminary results from experiments applied to road intersections. Section V concludes the paper.

II. RELATED WORK AND PROBLEM STATEMENT

A. Related Work

Road intersection safety is of much concern. Some risk reduction has been achieved with the introduction of roundabouts instead of classic intersections. Another long term solution is to use communication technologies [START_REF] Ibanez-Guzman | Vehicle to vehicle communications applied to road intersection safety, field results[END_REF]. Currently, increasing driver awareness before arriving to the intersection remains a challenge.

One of the most intuitive approaches consists in using rules associated to the context. The set of rules, function of contextual inputs (e.g. the vehicle state, the maximum velocity, etc.) define the situations which can be considered as risk situations. In [START_REF] Ibanez-Guzman | Vehicle to vehicle communications applied to road intersection safety, field results[END_REF], rules are set to define when the velocity is not safe when a vehicle is reaching an intersection. The main problem of these approaches is the difficulty to take uncertainties into account. In addition, when such systems become complex, rules become interleaved and hence difficult to trace.

Several of the algorithms available in the literature are mainly based on the estimation of the so called Time To Collision (TTC) [START_REF] Liebner | Driver intent inference at urban intersections using the intelligent driver model[END_REF], [START_REF] Labayrade | A collision mitigation system using laser scanner and stereovision fusion and its assessment[END_REF]. This indication estimates the time remaining before a collision between two objects. Alerts are usually given as soon as the TTC becomes lower than a threshold. However no conclusion can be drawn before the situation gets critical.

Other approaches include the driver as part of the system to infer driver manoeuvres. Given a context, by observing the differences between the driver intention and the expected behaviour, risky situations can be detected. In [START_REF] Lefevre | Risk assessment at road intersections: Comparing intention and expectation[END_REF], this risk is inferred within a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) implemented in cooperative vehicles. In [START_REF] Berndt | Continuous driver intention recognition with hidden markov models[END_REF], it is proposed to decompose manoeuvres into a series of consecutive actions which are then represented as Hidden Markov Models (HMM). A framework based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) coupled with HMM to determine the driver's behaviour is presented in [START_REF] Aoude | Driver behavior classification at intersections and validation on large naturalistic data set[END_REF]. The system proposed in [START_REF] Ortiz | Behavior prediction at multiple time-scales in inner-city scenarios[END_REF] also decomposes the manoeuvres into a sequence of elementary states, and a multilayer perceptron is used to learn the mapping between the current situation and the future vehicle states. All these systems generate warning only when the situation becomes dangerous. In addition, except driver actuations, no information about the driver is used to improve performances in term of reactivity.

In addition, several driver centric systems have been studied. Most of them are using either physiological sensors [START_REF] Hayashi | Prediction of stopping maneuver considering driver s state[END_REF] or vision technologies [START_REF] Tran | Vision for driver assistance: Looking at people in a vehicle[END_REF] to look at the driver and get some vigilance information. Whilst progress has been achieved, reliability remains a problem. Moreover, using this kind of technologies requires more sensors in the vehicle which is not compatible with vehicle OEM constraints.

B. Problem Statement

The literature has shown that most of risk assessment systems estimate the risk only when the situation becomes dangerous and thus when an accident is imminent. These systems can be called curative systems. Some studies have highlighted the negative effects that ADAS can sometimes have on drivers, for instance in term of emotions, and time to react [START_REF] Maag | Studying effects of advanced driver assistance systems (adas) on individual and group level using multi-driver simulation[END_REF], [START_REF] Lindgren | State of the art analysis: An overview of advanced driver assistance systems (adas) and possible human factors issues[END_REF]. Surrounding vehicles may also be directly impacted by the consequence of an alert lately or not well interpreted by the driver. In addition, these studies have shown that early warnings improve the efficiency of the alerts. Thus, the main challenge of risk assessment systems remains the responsiveness of the system and the integrity of generated information, so that such systems can become preventive instead of remedial.

In addition, to our knowledge, there is no related work that takes advantage of drivers' individualities. Though, some highlight the differences of behaviour between different drivers in similar contexts [START_REF] Berndt | Driver braking behavior during intersection approaches and implications for warning strategies for driver assistant systems[END_REF], [START_REF] Armand | Modelling stop intersection approaches using gaussian processes[END_REF]. For example, it is unlikely that a driver used to decelerate smoothly decides intentionally to decelerate much harder than usual.

In this paper, it is proposed to take advantage of driver patterns with regard to road contexts, to detect unusual behaviours which might be signs of incomplete situation awareness. Multiple sources of data are used within the framework, with respect to the subject vehicle, the road context and the driver. An underlying architecture of the system is presented, followed by a concrete exploitation in a road intersection context. It is shown that the use of driver individualities may help detect unusual behaviours (i.e. indicators of situation unawareness) to provide early advices instead of late warnings.

III. PROPOSED APPROACH

A. Concept

The aim of the framework is not to generate alerts when the situation is getting dangerous, but rather to provide advices as a human copilot would do. For instance, a fellow Drivers react more or less rapidly to the context, depending on their habits. For some of them, early advices can be given instead of warnings.

traveller who feels that the driver did not understand or perceive something would say "Have you seen ... ?" instead of waiting the last minute to say "Brake !". A copilot usually knows the driver's practices, and can estimate the need to advice the driver in case of unusual behaviour. Figure 1 illustrates the nuance between warnings and advices, such as:

• Active ADAS: the situation is critical, and the TTC is too small to let the driver react and brake. The vehicle takes the control. • Warning: the situation is dangerous, however the driver has time to react and to avoid accidents. The system warns the driver. • Advice: the situation is not yet dangerous, however it seems that the driver is not aware of a contextual object.

The system gives a pertinent advice to make sure that the driver has all the required information for a coherent decision making. Depending on the manner a driver is used to drive and to behave in particular contexts, advices can become relevant, or not. For instance, a sporty driver usually starts braking late at stop intersections. The situation becomes abnormal for him very late, and the situation can become dangerous very quickly. It is more relevant to warn the driver than giving him an advice. On the contrary, a relaxed driver who does not brake as early as usual can become suspect, and even if the situation is not yet dangerous an advice can be relevant for him.

B. Framework

The framework uses inputs from different information sources, as illustrated in Figure 2: • Environment & Context. The environment can be known through digital maps which store informations about the road network and infrastructure. On the other hand, dynamic objects which cannot be included in maps (vehicles, pedestrians, etc.) have to be perceived in real time by using sensors such as cameras or radars. (habits, in other words) have to be previously learnt. For example, [START_REF] Armand | Modelling stop intersection approaches using gaussian processes[END_REF] proposes a method to learn approaches to stop intersections. The first step is to fuse environment data and vehicle state data to clearly understand the context, and the influence of every contextual object on the subject vehicle. Usually, one object has more influence than the others on the vehicle, and this influence leads to a particular vehicle parameter to monitor (speed, etc.). This step is not the object of this paper. In the rest of the paper, the most important contextual object is manually set. Some works propose methods for scene understanding, such as [START_REF] Platho | Traffic situation assessment by recognizing interrelated road users[END_REF] and [START_REF] Vacek | Situation classification for cognitive automobiles using case-based reasoning[END_REF] which may be used within the framework.

The second step is to estimate if the behaviour of the driver matches with the behaviour expected in similar contexts. Driver patterns are compared with the current behaviour of the driver to estimate the awareness regarding the main contextual element. This step will be described in the rest of this paper.

C. Detection of unusual behaviours and awareness estimation

This section aims at describing the box number 2 introduced in Figure 2 which allows detection of unusual behaviours and thus estimation of awareness. For this task, a Bayesian Network (BN) [START_REF] Pearl | Bayesian networks: a model of self-activated: memory for evidential reasoning[END_REF] has been developed. BNs offer a way to fuse different sources of information, taking uncertainties into consideration.

It is assumed that the context has been understood (box number 1) and that the parameter to monitor has been identified.

1) Variables: Variables are separated into two categories, depending on their observability: a) Observable variables: These variables can be measured by the embedded sensors on a subject vehicle. They are defined as follows:

• P t ∈ R, the parameter to be monitored, with regard to the contextual object considered by the box 1 (c.f. Figure 2). It may be the vehicle speed, interdistance, lateral position, etc. • R t ∈ {0, 1}, the reaction of the driver. The driver can give an indication that he finally perceived/ took into consideration the most important contextual object. This variable is considered as a way to reduce the risk Pt Nt At Rt Pt-1

Nt-1

At-1

Rt-1 Fig. 3. Graphical Representation of the Bayesian Network of non-relevant advice. It is related to the parameter to monitor, and may be an action on the brake pedal, or for instance an information provided by vision (c.f. [START_REF] Tran | Vision for driver assistance: Looking at people in a vehicle[END_REF]). b) Hidden variables: These variables cannot be directly measured. However the DBN enables to estimate their values.

• N t ∈ {0, 1}, the estimation of the "Normality" of the driver's behaviour. By "Normal behaviour", it is understood a behaviour that matches with the behaviour that the driver usually has in a similar context. • A t ∈ {0, 1}, the estimation of the awareness of the driver with regard to the contextual object taken into consideration by the box number 1 (c.f. Figure 2). 2) Graphical Representation: The structure of the proposed BN is shown in Figure 3; its corresponding joint distribution is given by Eq.(1).

P (P t , N t , A t , R t ) = P (N t ) × P (R t ) × P (P t |N t ) × P (A t |R t , N t , A t-1 ) (1)
The relationship between all the nodes has to be understood as follows:

• A behaviour considered as Normal means that the observed Parameter matches with the driver's patterns, and that the driver seems Aware of the main contextual object.

• The Awareness of the driver (with regard to the main contextual object) is inferred by the estimation of the Normality of the driver's behaviour, and also by a Reaction of the driver. 3) Conditional probabilities: A description of the parametric form of the conditional probabilities is presented in this section.

a) The Parameter to monitor, P t : It is considered that P t follows the normal law such as:

P (P t |N t ) = N (p mean , σ s )
It means that whatever method can be used to provide the usual driver's behaviour, the only constraint is that the provided value has to be composed by mean and variance.

Table I gives the value of P t given the Normality of the behaviour N t :

Nt Pt 0 N (p Abnormal , σ Abnormal ) 1 N (p N ormal , σ N ormal ) TABLE I CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF THE PARAMETER Pt Cond. Prob. # Nt A t-1 Rt P (At = 1|Nt, A t-1 , Rt) 1 0 0 0 α 2 1 0 0 α 3 0 1 0 α 4 1 1 0 β 5 0 0 1 β 6 1 0 1 β 7 0 1 1 β 8 1 1 1 β

TABLE II CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF THE AWARENESS At

b) The Normality of the behaviour, N t : The probability that abnormal behaviours occur is low, it is defined as follows:

P (N t = 0) = γ c)
The Reaction of the driver, R t : The probability that the driver reacts because of the presence of a contextual object is set as follows:

P (R t = 1) = 0.5 d)
The Awareness, A t : It is assumed that there is continuity in the driver awareness. The conditional probabilities of the Awareness node are defined in Table II.

It is considered that the driver may be not aware of the main contextual object (i.e. α is small) if:

• At time t -1, the driver is not considered as aware of the context, and does not show any reaction at time t.

• Even if at time t-1 the driver was considered as aware of the context, if the behaviour turns abnormal and no reaction is perceived.

On the contrary, it is considered that the driver seems aware of the main contextual object (i.e. β is high) if:

• A reaction is perceived at time t.

• At time t-1 it was estimated that the driver was aware of the context, and his behaviour seems normal at time t.

4) Behaviour Normality and Context awareness estimation:

The model is used to estimate the behaviour normality and the degree of awareness regarding the contextual object that is supposed to have the biggest influence on the subject vehicle. This awareness is estimated by Eq. 2:

P ([N t = 0], [A t = 0]|P t , R t , A t-1 ) (2)

Velocity

The most important contextual object There is no lead vehicle moving in front of the subject vehicle, no pedestrian and no infrastructure such as bumpers or crossing. Thus the intersection is the only contextual object that has influence on the vehicle, and the only vehicle parameter to monitor is the velocity. Figure 4 illustrates the use case.

B. Bayesian Network adaptation

The observable nodes of the DBN described in Section III-C have to be adapted to the given use case:

1) The parameter P t : This parameter to monitor is the vehicle velocity. This velocity depends on the distance to the stop intersection, as illustrated in Figure 4.

It is considered that a driver has an unusual behaviour when he does not decelerate before the intersection.

The usual behaviour of the driver while he is approaching to a stop intersection has to be learnt. In [START_REF] Armand | Modelling stop intersection approaches using gaussian processes[END_REF], it is proposed to learn the customized velocity profile of a driver at the approach to stop intersections. Gaussian Processes are used. It has been shown that this method is well adapted for this task, since it allows to model accurately the driver patterns taking into account uncertainties which might exist due to the driver and the quality of the on-board sensors. In addition, the outputs follow the normal law and are composed by mean and variance.

From a dozen of approaches recorded on real roads, the framework described in [START_REF] Armand | Modelling stop intersection approaches using gaussian processes[END_REF] allows to provide learnt patterns as the one shown in Figure 5. At any position before the intersection, Gaussian Processes allow to compute the velocity (mean and variance) at which the vehicle is usually moving at the same position, in similar contexts.

2) The Reaction R t : Usually, when approaching to a road intersection, a driver decelerates or brakes. In the case of stop intersections, a sign that the driver understood the presence of the contextual object is that he pushes (more or less) the brake pedal. For the proposed use case, the framework uses the brake pedal state (0 or 1) as a reaction of the driver.

C. Results

Preliminary evaluations of the framework have been realized, using real data recorded on open roads. Acquisitions were accomplished with the same protocol as the one described in [START_REF] Armand | Modelling stop intersection approaches using gaussian processes[END_REF].

Three scenarios have been chosen for the evaluation:

1) Scenario 1: Normal behaviour.

2) Scenario 2: Unusual late deceleration.

3) Scenario 3: No reaction, comparison with the use of a generic profile.

1) Scenario 1: this scenario, the driver behaves as he usually behaves while approaching to a stop intersection. The Figure 6 illustrates the behaviour of the DBN for this normal behaviour (red curves). It is noticeable that:

• The velocity stays inside the individual envelope defined by the customized driver pattern, and thus seems to be adapted to the context. • Since the velocity of the vehicle matches with the driver pattern, the action of the driver on the brake pedal does not have influence on the model. • The model considers that the driver is aware of the stop intersection.

2) Scenario 2: In this scenario, the driver does not approach to the intersection with an usual behaviour, and reacts lately. The Figure 6 illustrates the behaviour of the DNB for this abnormal behaviour (green curves). It is noticeable that:

• The velocity leaves the envelope defined by the personalized speed profile. • As soon as the behaviour (i.e. the velocity) turns unusual, the risk that the driver did not consider the stop intersection starts increasing. • When the driver starts pushing the brake pedal, the system considers that he took the stop intersection into consideration, and thus that he is aware of this contextual object. The risk decreases close to 0. In red, data related to normal behaviour, in green data related to late reaction. In windows A, the learnt pattern is in blue (mean and 95% confidence).

3) Scenario 3: In this scenario, it is simulated that the driver does not decelerate and does not react at all while approaching to a stop intersection. Figure 7 illustrates the behaviour of the system for this scenario. The behaviour of the DBN is tested using a profile customized for a rather relaxed driver (in blue), and with an average generic profile (in green). The generic profile shows a 2.4m/s² deceleration rate which is an average rate at 50km/h, as indicated in [START_REF] Wang | Normal deceleration behaviour of passenger vehicles starting from rest at all way stop controlled intersections[END_REF]. In addition, a -9m/s² deceleration curve is drawn. This curve represents an average maximum deceleration rate for emergency braking. It is noticeable that:

• As soon as the velocity leaves the envelopes (learnt and generic envelopes) without any reaction (on the brake pedal), the probability that the driver did not take the stop intersection into account increases up to 0.9. • This example highlights the advantage of using customized patterns. For a relaxed driver (in blue), the system detects a risk of context unawareness about 19m before the estimation of a risk with the generic profile. Moving at 50km/h, 19m are travelled in 1.35s which may represent a high average reaction time for a driver. • With the learnt pattern, the estimated probability that the driver is not aware of the stop intersection reaches a value of 0.9 34m before the maximum emergency deceleration curve. Moving at 50km/h, this distance is travelled in 2.42s. This is more than enough for the driver to react to an advice (for example: "Have you seen the stop intersection ?") and to brake much smoother than an emergency braking.

D. Discussion

According to the preliminary evaluation presented, the proposed framework provides a coherent estimation of the risk that a driver does not take into account the main contextual object. However, a quantitative evaluation of the system have to be done with a significant amount of data recorded in real conditions. In addition, the use of customized driver patterns enhances the integrity of the generated information. Whilst uncertainties are taken into account by the personalized driver model, small uncertainties on measurements will lead to better estimation of risk.

For drivers used to drive sportingly, the framework allows also an estimation of unawareness. Nevertheless, this information can come too late to have time to generate an advice. In this case, it is better to generate warnings instead of advices. Further works have to be done to estimate when time is no longer sufficient to give an advice.

Finally, the simplicity of the use case enables to know in a straightforward manner that the stop intersection had to be monitored (c.f. Box 1 in Figure 2). In more complex contexts, it is not that simple. Thus, further works have to be done to automatically interpret the road context, and to detect contextual objects which interfere with the subject vehicle.

V. CONCLUSION

An underlying framework for the estimation of driver awareness with regard to a particular contextual object has been presented. It takes into account that all drivers have different driver patterns, thus it learns how drivers behave under different contextual situations. Then, it infers if drivers are behaving differently as they approach similar situations. The model has been used within a simple use case (stop road intersection) to evaluate its relevance using a single observed variable, the vehicle velocity profile as it approaches the stop line. For this task, real data and customized driver patterns have been used. This preliminary evaluation has shown that the model provides a coherent estimation of context awareness (with regard to the focus object), and would make it possible to produce early advices to the driver.

The proposed framework will be extended by including other contextual objects, namely the presence of a lead vehicle between the subject vehicle and the next road intersection. This use case requires the use of other observation variables.

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. Solutions to avoid accident: advice, warning and active ADAS.Drivers react more or less rapidly to the context, depending on their habits. For some of them, early advices can be given instead of warnings.

Fig. 4 .

 4 Fig. 4. The use case: a typical stop intersection vs expected velocity profile

Fig. 5 .

 5 Fig. 5. Customized velocity profile provided by Gaussian Processes

Fig. 6 .

 6 Fig.6. Scenarios 1&2 : Normal behaviour and late reaction. In red, data related to normal behaviour, in green data related to late reaction. In windows A, the learnt pattern is in blue (mean and 95% confidence).

Fig. 7 .

 7 Fig. 7. Scenario 3. 1 run (in red) tested with 1 customized profile (in blue) and with a generic profile (in green). The black dot curve is the 9m/s² deceleration curve.

ENSTA ParisTech/ INRIA FLOWERS team, 828 Boulevard des Maréchaux, 91762 Palaiseau Cedex, France. alexandre.armand@enstaparistech.fr, david.filliat@ensta-paristech.fr.

[START_REF] Armand | Modelling stop intersection approaches using gaussian processes[END_REF] Renault S.A.S, 1 av. du Golf, 78288 Guyancourt, France. javier.ibanezguzman@renault.com.


Andrzej Nowak
email: nowak@fau.edu

Jorgen Andersen

Wojciech Borkowski

Dynamics of Socio-Economic systems: attractors, rationality and meaning 1

Social sciences are undergoing rapid change. Due to rapid developments of computer simulations of social processes and availability of big data social sciences are becoming increasingly precise and integrated. Finally the formal tools that can capture complex human and social dynamics have been developed and data for verification of quantitative models of social processes are becoming available. The time is becoming ripe for the social sciences to undergo radical transformation, integrate fragmented theories and formulate quantitative models.

The paper by Gintis and Helbing is an attempt to propose a theoretical framework for the development of an integrated theory of human social dynamics. Gintis and Helbing go beyond traditional boundaries of scientific disciplines and propose integration of major theories from economy, sociology, anthropology, social psychology, biology, using formalisms of economy, physics, mathematical game theory, computer simulations and dynamical systems approach. They aim to integrate into a single theoretical framework: rational decisions, non-monetary motivations, social norms, evolutionary

dynamics and the role of institutions. The scope of proposed integration is breathtaking.

The proposed generalizations to Walrasian general equilibrium model [START_REF] Arrow | Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy[END_REF] e.g., the assumption that human are motivated by many types of rewards, not only monetary gains, agrees well what is known in psychology. Very interesting is the notion of correlated equilibrium. Many of the specific comments are insightful.

Several of the assumptions, however, may be challenged. In sum the theory is a good introduction to the discussion of what should be the general assumptions of a general theory of social processes.

Equlibrium

Gintis and Helbing adopt the assumption of Walrasian models of economy concerning the existence of equilibrium in social systems. This assumption is fundamental for standard economic theory. In the language of dynamical systems approach the notion of equilibrium corresponds to fixed-point attractor. The notion of equilibrium has a long history in the social sciences. Both in biology (Cannon 1029) and psychology the notion of homeostatic and later multi-static self-regulation was based on the notion that systems dynamics is aimed at maintaining and restoring equilibrium. In psychology, for example, the homeostatic mechanism of optimal level of stimulation, where overstimulation resulted in exhaustion and under stimulation in boredom [START_REF] Berlyne | Conflict, arousal, and curiosity[END_REF]) replaced the earlier one directional notion of reduction of unpleasant states such as anxiety or dissonance. It was also proposed that stable states represent various personal and social standards [START_REF] Carver | Themes and issues in the selfregulation of behavior[END_REF] The notion of attractor is one of the most useful dynamical systems concepts for describing social dynamics. The concept of attractor allows one to combine the notion of constant change, ever-present in social and metal systems with the notion of stability.

Dynamics processes evolve around their attractors, which are relatively stable. Thoughts and feelings of individuals change all the time, but they tend to converge on attitudes that function as attractors and change on a slower time scale. Self-relevant thoughts vary in time but their evaluative tone tends to converge on self-esteem, which functions as an attractor for self-relevant thoughts. If self-view is perturbed by new information or external influence; self-esteem maintenance mechanisms tend to reinstate self-esteem. Not all the social and psychological processes, however, are characterized by attractor dynamics. Even the same process, depending on control parameters, may have attractors or not. With respect to regulation of mood, for example, the research on individuals with diagnosed depression, for example, has shown [START_REF] Sheri | Dynamical Patterns in bipolar depression[END_REF] that for some depressed individuals depressed mood state functions as attractor, for some others no attractor for mood exists. Correlations with clinical data have shown that the lack of attractor is strongly associated with multiple hospitalizations and suicidal tendencies.

With respect to intractable conflict, the state of negative relations between the parties functions as an attractor. Lack of the negative relations attractor indicates a healthy relationship. With respect to many social processes whether they have the attractor is important information about the system, rather than a universal feature of their dynamics.

Since psychological and social systems constantly evolve and change on various time-scales the appearance of an attractor in their dynamics and the characteristic of this attractor is likely to be a temporary phenomena. Attractors also evolve but on a slower time scales. The relation between different time scales is well described by synergetics [START_REF] Haken | Synergetics-are cooperative phenomena governed by universal principles[END_REF], where at fast time scales dynamics variables evolve around what looks like stable attractors. On longer time scales the momentary states of the dynamic variables are practically invisible, so they are observed at values of their attractors, and what is visible is the dynamics of the attractors.

In sum, social systems are practically always in flux, although in different time scales. Specific processes, for some time, and in some conditions may have attractors. It is important information if they do. Real social systems are composed of multiple interconnected processes occurring in different time scales. It is unlikely that all the processes tend toward equilibrium. Even, if it sometimes is the case, it should be a result of analysis of empirical data, rather than a priori assumption. The dynamics of simplified mathematical or computer simulation models are, however, likely to converge on attractors i.e. be characterized by equilibrium tendencies.

It is similar to the Hardy -Weinberg law/principle in biology which states that "allelic and genotypic frequencies remain constant absent evolutionary influences. These influences include non-random mating, mutation, selection, genetic drift, gene flow and meiotic drive." (c.f. Goo, S,W., & Thompson 1992). The assumptions under which the equilibrium exists almost never are satisfied in longer time spans. In shorter timescales, in ecosystems, also oscillations, like in the Lotka-Volterra model, may describe typical dynamics, rather than static equilibrium. Because of external disturbances, even these stable oscillatory patterns almost never remain for a long time.

Rationality

One of the most interesting features of Gintis and Helbing theoretical framework is that they go beyond traditional economic theory assuming that humans decisions are driven by all kinds of motives, including purely altruistic motives as well as probabilistic outcomes. Norms also can be couched in terms of utility of outcomes, mostly as factors that modify the utility functions of decision makers. Gintis and Helbing assume that individuals combine all the utilities factoring the probabilities of outcomes and make the decision that maximizes subjective expected utility. They assume that the preferences are transitive, and that assessment of outcomes does not influence subjective probabilities.

Current research in psychology and marketing casts doubts on the views of humans as rational decision makers, even when the meaning of rationality is relaxed, like in GH framework. GH propose how to improve the traditional models of decision making, but arguably we need a new model, based on different principles. Human choices are often driven by emotions rather than cognitive processes, are strongly influenced by unconscious processes rather than considerations of options and calculation of probabilities, often are unconscious, and frequently their outcomes depend on social, rather then individual processes.

As [START_REF] Ormerod | The death of economics[END_REF] points out, in today's world there are so many products that comparing them all is impossible, many of the products are so technically sophisticated and complex, that buyers are not competent to understand their features. Situations when a decision maker can list all the decision options, assess utilities and probabilities of the outcomes, consider various own motives and make decision on the full comparison of all the products is extremely rare. One of us (AN) witnessed just once a person following this model in consumer decision. The choice of electronic camera, took two weeks, several hours a day of research and comparing the products. It resulted in the choice of really a very good product. Rarely individuals have enough time, skills and motivation to invest so much in a decision. Just as an example AN just followed this choice in his own purchase and then recommended this product to others, who also bought the product.

Consumers, when comparing products, usually concentrate only on very few aspects of the product, not necessarily the one that are most relevant. Since they are likely to consider different aspects of the item when comparing it with different items, the choices are likely to be non-transitive. For example computer A is better than B because it is faster and has better screen, computer B is better than C because its battery lasts longer. Computer C is better than A, because it is lighter and looks better. The features on which an item is evaluated depend on the item it is compared with, situational context, but also on other individuals with whom the individual compares the product.

In many cases individuals do not evaluate the product, but rather they adopt the evaluation of others either in direct interaction, or from product rating by expert reviews or Internet evaluations by other users. In such cases the structure of contacts in social networks, and product adoption by linked others has more impact on products adoption than the features of the product.

One of the core elements of the approach proposed by Gintis and Helbing is that different types of outcomes are combined in function, that adds up utility coming from different sources, of each decision option, for example, financial outcomes, satisfying norms, altruistic etc.

Constructing a general function of satisfaction that combines different types of outcome (e.g. financial consequences and personal values) may be difficult and such a function cannot simply add the satisfaction with different outcomes, because different types of motivation are not independent; external motivation tends to replace any internal onemoral or normativethat might have formed [START_REF] Deci | A meta-analytic review of experiments examining the effects of extrinsic rewards on intrinsic motivation[END_REF][START_REF] Frey | Motivation crowding theory[END_REF].

The model assumes that individuals can assess probability of various outcomes.

Individuals often relay on narratives in forming the expectation of the likely course of action, rather than consider all the possible outcomes assigning probabilities to each of them. The expected probability can thus change with the change of the narrative. Probability thus may be the result of social construction rather than individually assessed likelihood.

Direct and indirect interactions

Gintis and Helbing go beyond standard economic models in assuming the importance of patterns of interaction between individuals, described as social networks. They also assume that individuals influence each other through artifacts, for example artifacts of culture. In economy, another distinction is also important when considering social dynamics. Economic phenomena depend both on direct and indirect interactions between individuals (Andersen & Nowak 2013). In direct interactions individuals transmit information or exert influence on each other [START_REF] Nowak | Social influence and group dynamics[END_REF]. The structure of such interactions is well described by social networks linking individuals. However individuals also interact in indirect ways, through mechanisms of the market and financial institutions. Decisions to buy or sell have consequences for other individuals. These consequences, for example, are experienced as changing prices.

Meaning

Social systems are different from physical and biological systems because their dynamics are based on meaning. Social reality is constructed in interactions between individuals, social interactions are necessary to sustain it. [START_REF] Vygotsky | Mind and society: The development of higher mental processes[END_REF], Berger & Luckmann 1991). In contrast to physical phenomena, properties of social reality depend more on the social process than on their objective properties, social reality is being constructed and maintained in social interactions. Social constructs are the results of human decisions rather than objective reality. People constantly search for the meaning of the situation they are in, what the others are doing and their own actions. Decisions and actions of individuals depend on their understanding of the situation rather then their objective properties. The meaning created in social interactions has causal effect; it decides about the shape of social processes and their course. From this perspective the social and economic processes, in fact are socially constructed. It is thus difficult to analyze social and economic processes as if they existed, like physical processes in objective form. The capacity to include socially created meaning may be an important feature of a general theory of social processes.

1 This work was supported by funds from Polish National Science Centre (project no. DEC-2011/02/A/HS6/00231).