E4A92+9A759

Table 1.

;17C3CC6+7;&57C))4<7C7)CD67*)6,55)53875274D6D7347C744923D5673473&6744674*7398+737 D6D66237C744256DC)675ED46E62374*73&6701BF7E46)+77 ;4749D724<)66A7537573&67*5D37)4C)7BBF7E46)7<53&7&496&4)75CD6C3542+7;&57C6D7 573&67*5D373674*7C7)42736DE7D66CD4&7D4A643+7273&67)427D92A73&67E46)7<5))7524)967E4D6744923D567
<53&7 &496&4)7 5CD6C35427 C27 C7 &5&6D7 29E6D7 4*7 &496&4)7 4C364D567 527 6C4&7 44923D8+7 67 C)47 523627 347 3987 82CE547 D6)C35427 3&C37 <67 3&527 CD67 5E4D3C237 44246D2527 3&67 5EC437 4*7 3DC67 D6*4DE7 427 46D387 C27 5244E67 53D593542A7 527 CD3549)CD7 &496&4)E7 C527 C27 &496&4)7

5263E6237527694C3542 # +7

In this first step, we test the model by simulating full trade liberalization at the world7 level. As various studies have already evaluated the potential impact of full trade liberalization7 on poverty, this exercise will allow comparing these first results to results from7 past studies. In section 2 we present the methodological and analytical debate regarding trade and poverty. In section 3 we present the methodological framework developed for this paper: first improvements introduced to MIRAGE to model the public agent and to include disaggregation of households, second the way statistical information coming from households' survey has been treated and reconciled to the GTAP database on which the MIRAGE model is grounded, and third the micro-accounting procedure to extend the analysis at a micro-level. Section 4 presents the shock implemented, the data used for this exercise and the results obtained, using both the traditional version of MIRAGE with a unique representative agent by country and the new version with household disaggregation. While pointing out the heterogeneity of individual situations we also identify in Section 4 the main channels through which trade liberalization impacts individual situations. We also discuss various rules of indexation of public transfers and closure to the public accounts. Finally, Section 5 concludes.

7Until now we have neglected this aspect and ony included proportional changes in the evolution of strata.

We will focus on this aspect in the near future.7

# 7;&57<5))76742675273&6744E527E423&7 3&D49&73&67D6E926DC354274*73&667*C434D+7;DC67)56DC)5CC35427EC87C)47C**6437)C4D79)87C273&67 35E67 &CD67 63<6627 )659D67 C27 <4D+;&57 D4467 &49)7 C)47 *C4D7 5224C3542+7 24D6C67 C449E9)C354274*74C53C)A7)C27C275))67)C4D76**64374C27443764424E547D4<3&7<&54&799C))87)6C7 34746D387D6943542+7 $7
External shocks and in particular changes in terms of trade+7 2CD5C35427 527 36DE7 4*7 3DC67 CD67 D6)C367 347 462267 4*7 *4D6527 C27 4E63547 ECD63+7 ;&67 *4DE6D7 4C27 653&6D7 67 453567 9E4D67 6EC27 *4D7 2C3542C)7 6,4D3C)67 44EE453567 3&C27 347 3&67 6)5E52C35427 4*7 D436435427 D6549)87 3C,527 3&667 6,4D3:7 4D7 26C3567 9)67 6EC27 *4D7 2C3542C)7 6,4D3C)67 44EE453567 3&C27 347 C27 6D45427 4*7 52535C)7 D6*6D6246:+7 G62527 4E63547 markets usually leads to increased national demand for foreign products that translates in augmented import prices and deterioration of terms of trade.

-Short run risks and adjustements costs. The impact of trade liberalization on households' real income may be negative in the short term, but positive in the long term when considering the capacity of reallocation of productive factors to sectors in expansion. This reallocation takes time and implies adjustment costs in the short term. One of the most significant adjustment costs to the poor is the rise in transitional unemployment. Nissanke and Thorbecke (2006) also present an analytical framework in which they establish the different channels through which trade liberalization affects poverty, and provide some empirical evidence about the way these channels work. They emphasize the intermediate role of inequality as a link between globalization and poverty. Factors such as differential cross-border mobility, technical progress and information flows (see Nissanke and Thorbecke 2006) might affect negatively inequality and thus not reduce poverty as a consequence of liberalization. They also warn that the most frequently mentioned channel of transmission of liberalization to poverty, the globalization-growthinequality-poverty, is not automatic and conclude that the pattern and structure of growth obtained from liberalization will be a determinant of the ultimate impact of liberalization on poverty. Bhagwati and Srinivasan (2002) focus on the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in poor countries. They group the effects in two: static effect and dynamic effects. Among the former, they include the effect predicted by Stolper-Samuelson theorem -poor countries present usually comparative advantages in sectors that employ more intensively unskilled labor-and they also consider the positive effect of macroeconomic stabilization policies that usually are implemented together with trade liberalization on domestic prices. The dynamic argument is that openness brings about growth and thus reduces poverty.

Winters, McCulloch and McKay (2004) review the empirical evidence that supports the links between trade and poverty thanks to a meta-analysis. They provide a rigorous review of literature under the analytical framework presented by Winters (2002). Some of the links included in the framework seem to be more empirically supported than others. For example, the link between trade and growth is not very clear, but there is strong evidence supporting a positive effect of trade on productivity. Similarly, there seems to be a weak link between trade and employment and wages of poor workers, as well as low evidence supporting a fall in government spending on the poor. However, in these cases, as well as in others, there is evidence of exceptions. The authors conclude than in general the link between trade and poverty seems to be a positive one, which could be complemented with adjustment policies to boost the positive impacts or mitigate the negative impact on the poor.

Finally, some knowledge gaps, such as the effect of trade on poverty dynamics at the household level, should be addressed.

Trade and poverty: the methodological debate

B5627 3&67 5**6D6237 4&C226)7 3&D49&7 <&54&7 3DC67 )56DC)5CC35427 C27 43&6D7 6,36D2C)7 &447 EC87 C**6437 46D387 527 645*547 44923D56A7 3&6D67 57 C)47 C7 D54&7 6C367 C4937 3&67 637 E63&44)454C)7

CD4C4&74D7CD4C4&673474C39D673&6674&C226)+7 H6D36)7C2765E6D79 !!@:A7527C276,362567D656<7C49373&676**64374*73DC67)56DC)5CC35427427 46D38A7 D4C)87 6*5267 *49D7 4C364D567 4*7 39567 C444D527 347 3&67 E63&44)487 C)567 '7 CD35C)7 6195)5D59E74D744374*7)5527C2C)85=7626DC)76195)5D59E7E46)=7E54D4$EC4D47823&657=7C2739567 3&C37C2C)8C673&67)427D9276**64374*73DC67)56DC)5CC35427*4495274273&675EC43742764424E547D4<3&+7 ;&67C93&4D74424)9673&C3743&7EC4D47C27E54D47E63&44)454C)7CD4C4&67&49)76744256D6+7 ;DC67 )56DC)5CC35427 C27 3DC67 &447 C**6437 46D387 3&D49&7 5**6D6237 4&C226)A7 C7 5236D7 9 !! :7 45236A79374E674*73&67)527&C676627E4D6766)87C2C)8C67527)536DC39D673&C2743&6D+7G2675967 )67 6,)4D67 &C7 6627 3&67 )C4D7 ECD63+7 1444D527 347 3&67 C93&4DA7 I)C4D7 ECD637 66D67 3&67 D6C3637C336235427873&4673985273DC67C2746D38JA764C9673&67EC527624<E62374*73&6744D757 5**6D623)87*D4E73DC67D6*4DE+7;&9A73&67C93&4D796373&679674*7BBF7E46)A7<&54&7527442A92435427 <53&7E54D45E9)C3542A76336D74C39D673&67&636D4626497&496&4)7D642673473DC67D6*4DE+77 BBF7CD673&9742674*73&67E437C)567344)73476C)9C3673&675EC4374*73DC67)56DC)5CC35427427 <6)*CD6A7 C27 9)35EC36)8A7 427 46D38+7 BBF7 C2C)857 CD67 99C))87 926D3C627 926D7 C7 &843&657 4*7 C7 9251967 4D7 66DC)7 D6D6623C3567 C6239:'7 3&67 C6DC67 5244E67 C27 343C)7 5244E67 CD67 62462497 <&5)673&67E4E62374*73&6753D5935427CD676,46249+7375799C))8794673&C373&67D6C)75244E674*7
6C4&7 4C364D87 4*7 &496&4)7 CD87 562354C))8+7 ;&57 C9E35427 has been criticized by Dervis, de Melo and Robinson (1982), Huppie and Ravallion (1991) and Ravallion and Chen (1997). Moreover, in the case of single country CGE models, the impact of multilateral trade reform cannot be tackled, in particular the complexity of international trade relations based on numerous trade agreements, either being multilateral, regional or non reciprocal. This complexity justifies the design of multi-country multisector CGE models.

Cloutier et al ( 2008) present a review of CGE modeling contribution to the debate about the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and welfare. The literature reviewed by the authors differs in the results, as the model structure of the underlying CGEs and the policy scenarios simulated are different as well. In terms of policy simulations, differences can arise concerning the nature of the trade liberalization itself (tariff elimination or reduction, simulation of quota reduction, to all sectors or limited to some sectors, etc.), the compensatory mechanisms to compensate tariff loss revenue (fixed government spending assumption, fixed revenue, etc.) and the model closure adopted (fixed savings, fixed investment, etc.). Bouët (2006), in a review of 16 studies that apply general equilibrium analysis to assess the impact of world full trade liberalization, also finds distinctive underlying assumptions in the models, as well as in the scenarios simulated. In spite of these differences, the impact of trade reform on world welfare is found to be positive. The main gains come from agriculture liberalization, although for some countries, such as food import countries, or countries that already have preferential access to some markets, the impact on welfare might be negative. All these models focus on the impact of liberalization on welfare, both at the worldwide level or at country level, but without accounting for changes in income distribution and poverty at the micro level. In the next subsection we present different strategies to overcome this shortcoming.

;&6D6*4D67 3&67 *4))4<527 619C35427 9<53&7 3DC53542C)701BF7 C2243C35427$7 667 64D69,7 C27 2C)52A7 !!F:7&4)75273&5726<76D54274*701BF F ;&674A6435674*7'7

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) r BUDG r i r i CG r i PC g × × , = , , α (1)
( ) ( ) ( )

r i CG r i CH r i C , , = , + (2)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) C C r i PC r P r AUX r i a r i cmin r i CH σ 1 2 3 4 5 6 × × - , ) ( , = , , (3)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) r i cmin r i CH r i PC r AUX r P i , , , = - × × 7 (4) ( ) ( ) ( ) r i CH r i PC r BUDC i , , = × 7 (5) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] r i VA r i PVA r budgbalO r BUDG r RECTAX i , , = × × + 7 (6) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] r i VA r i PVA r RECTAX PIBMVAL r soldO r BUDG r REV i , , = × + + + 7 (7) F19C354279":764D5673&67B4$49)C7C))44C354274*79)5476,6267<53&7 ( ) 1 = , r i g i α 7 A7 ) , ( r i CG 76527 46D2E6237 4429E35427 527 6434D7 i +7 F19C35427 9 :7 44E9367 343C)7 *52C)7 4429E3542+7 F19C35427 9#:7 64D567 3&67 F>$BF>7 C))44C35427 4*7 D5C367 *52C)7 4429E3542A7 <&6D67 ) , ( r i cmin 757 3&67 E525EC)7 D5C367 4429E35427 4*7 447 i 7527 *52C)7 6EC27 4*7 D65427 r A7 ) (r AUX 757 3&67935)53874*73&67D6D6623C3567D5C367C6237527D65427 r A7 ) (r P 7573&67D54674*7935)538A7 ) , ( r i PC 7573&67 D5467 4*7 447 i 7527 D65427 r 7C27 ) , ( r i a c 7C27 C
σ 7CD67 &CD67 C27 6)C3545387 CDCE636D+7 F19C35427 9-:7 4C)49)C367 3&67 D5467 C445C367 347 D5C367 935)5387 9 ) (r P :7 C27 F19C35427 9@:7 64D567 3&67 D5C367 F 7&5)673&674423C237&CD67527C)9674*79)5474429E35427876434D7EC876744256D67C7D6C)5354A753757E4D67 D4)6EC3547 347 44256D7 3&C37 3&67 46D2E6237 637 B4$49)C7 D6*6D62467 46D7 9)547 4429E35427 87 6434D+7;&675236DD63C354274*73&574A643567*92435427575**549)3+727CD3549)CD73&6D675724744256DC35427*4D7D5C367 <6))$6527 527 3&57 *9243542+7 67 <5))7 667 )C36D7 427 3&C37 537 57 5**549)37 347 5236DD637 D6C)7 5244E6E7 CD5C3542=7 *4D7 5E)545387<67*44974276195C)6237CD5C35427562787D5C3674429E3542+7 ;&57572437 C35*C434D87937<67<5))7 D4467C243&6D74)935427527*9D3&6D7D66CD4&+ 4429E6DE7 9637 9 ) (r BUDC :+7 F19C35427 96:7 57 3&67 9637 4)49D67 4*7 9)547 C623A7 <53&7

) (r budgbalO 765273&6746D2E623E79637C)C2467527D44D35427C74E63547BA7C27 ) , ( r i VA 7 C27 ) , ( r i PVA 765273&67C)967C67C273&67D54674*7C)967C67D664356)8+752C))87619C354279F:7 64D567 3&67 EC4D464424E547 4)49D67 *4D7 44923D87 DA7 <53&7 ) (r REV 76527 3&67 D6542C)7 D66296A7 ) (r soldO 73&6749DD6237C4449237C)C2467527D65427 r 7C27 PIBMVAL 7<4D)E7B7527C)96 7 + !AA"57D5E6#AFDC954
× × 7 ( ) ( ) ( ) t r i VA t r i PVA t r budgbal i , , , , , 0 × × + 7 ( ) ( ) t s r i INV t s PINVTOT s i , , , , = , × 7 (21) <53&7 ( ) t s r i INV , , , 76527 3&67 5263E6237 87 44923D87 r 7527 6434D7 i 74*7 44923D87 s 7C27 t r PINVTOT , 76527C744E45367D54674*73&575263E623+759D67#75))93DC3673&66726<7C9E3542+ ( ) ( ) [ ] h h m m m c u r y c u u ; = - (22)
;&67D6E533C2467C9E62373&67D6455623E75244E67C273&6D6*4D67&6D(&574429E542' 7[ ] Re 73&67 637 4*7 D64556237 &496&4)+7

r y c c h h + = (23) ;&6D6*4D67<6743C52'7 [ ] h m y y r r ; = ( 24
) <53&7 0 > m y r ∂ ∂ 7C27 0 < h y r ∂ ∂ +7 ;&6D6*4D67 3&67 D5C367 5236D$&496&4)7 3DC2*6D7 57 524D6C527 <53&7 3&67 424DE7 5244E67 C27 64D6C527 <53&7 3&67 D6455623E7 5244E6+7 67 C437 3&57 3&64D6354C)7 E54D464424E547 *492C35427 *5D37 64C967 4*7 537 5E)545387 C27 64427 52467 43&6D7 3&64D6354C)7 *DCE6<4D7)567A535129DE8F1D973413D74D73DAD4D91234567AD26F3DD97D263D4D737D6195D67C27 5236D626DC3542C)7CD4C4&7<&54&7)4475**549)373475E)6E6237&6D652+ 67C4373&67*4))4<527*9243542C)7*4DE'7 [ ] )) , ( ) , ( ( 1 ) , ( ) , ( ) , ( ). ( =
) (r M 757 C7 453567 CDCE636DA7 4&CDC436D5C527 5236D$&496&4)7 3DC2*6D752744923D87D+7 ) , ( r hh aNT 757C7453567CDCE636D7D6*)643)527&496&4)7&&E7554824DC8+7α 7 57 C7 CDCE636D7 E6C9D527 3&67 625355387 4*7 D6E533C2467 347 3&67 424DE7 C*36D$3C,7 D6$D6E533C2467 5244E67 ) , ( r hh ARh +7 67 4&4467 0.05 = α 7<&54&7 5E)567 3&C37 3DC2*6D7 CD67 D6)C356)87 D557 347 3&67 C*36D$3C,7 D6$D6E533C2467 5244E67 4*7 3&67 424D+7 67 <5))7 &C67 347 635EC367 64424E63D54C))87 3&57 CDCE636D7527C726,373C674*73&57<4D+ ;&6D6*4D67619C35427 @75E)5673&C37C275236D$&496&4)7D5C3673DC2*6D7CD56745356)87<53&7 3&67 424DE7 C*36D$3C,7 D6$D6E533C2467 5244E67 ) , ( r hh ARh 7C27 26C356)87 <53&7 C27 524D6C67 4*7 3&67 D6455623E7 C*36D$3C,7 D6$D6E533C2467 5244E67 C7 44ECD67 347 3&67 52535C)7 539C35427 ) , ( )/ , ( r

The data

;&57643542757C5E67C37D6623527&4<7&496&4)7<6D675CD6C3675273&6726<76D54274*7 01BF7 E46)+7 *7 3&67 >445C)7 1444923527 0C3D5,7 9>10:7 57 967 347 6,)4D67 5967 D6)C367 347 5244E67 53D5935427 3&627 3&67 &496&4)7 C4449237 57 347 67 D4627 4<27 52347 C7 29E6D7 4*7 D6)C356)87 &4E4626497 &496&4)7 D497 D6*)643527 3&67 445464424E547 4&CDC436D53547 4*7 3&67 44923D87 4D7 D65427 926D7 44256DC35427 964C)9<67 637 C)A7"DDD:+7F6275*7 3&67 4C)7 4*7 49D7 CD4C4&7 57 2437347 &C67 &496&4)7 5CD6C367 *4D7 C))7 3&67 D65427 527 3&67 E46)A7 <67 2667 347 66)47 C7 44))6435427 4*7 2C3542C)7 )66)7 C3C637 3&C37 D4567 97 3&67 44D3925387 347 5E)6E6237 49D7 E46)7 *4D7 C7 )CD67 637 4*7 44923D56+7 27 C53542A7 3&67 D4467 &49)7 DC237 6249&7 *)6,55)5387 347 4&C267 3&67 44923D87 446DC67 C27 3&67 )66)7 4*7 &496&4)7 5CD6C3542+7 ;&9A7 <67 44256D7 3&D667 5**6D6237 367 527 3&67 C3C7 D446527 626DC3542A7 C7 5)C867 527 59D67 -+7 ;&67 5**6D6237 3637 CD67 63C5)67 527 3&67 *4))4<527 9643542+

173&67E46)7574C)5DC367527 !!F7C27C7*9))73DC67)56DC)5CC35427575E)6E623673CD3527427 D4D6+
!""A7 <67 66)47 C7 D6$6,6D5E6237 63<6627 !!F7 C27 !""7 926D7 <&54&7 C))7 3DC67 CD66E6237 CD667527 !!F7937243786379*9))8:75276,6D4567CD675E)6E6236+ "# 675E)6E6237C7D6E4C)74*7C))75E4D3793567527C))744923D5673&D49&49373&67<4D)7)526CD)87 *D4E7 !""7 347 ! !+7 27 4D6D7 347 4C39D67 *9))7 5E)6E623C35427 4*7 C))7 6**6437 <67 99C))87 *4497 427 86CD7 ! @A7 *4D7<&54&7 <67 44ECD67 3&67 462CD547 9<53&7 *9))73DC67 )56DC)5CC3542:7 <53&73&67 C6)5267 9<53&4937 *

"F 7G*7449D673&5757C7&4D3493752467527626DC)76195)5D59E7C))7CD5C)67CD67636DE52675E9)3C2649)8+

The income effect is:

7 E4A92+9+EC3B59Figure 17

 717 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 4 :

 4 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 5 :

 5 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 6 :

 6 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 7 :

 7 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 9 :

 9 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 16 :

 16 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 17 :

 17 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 24 :

 24 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 25 :

 25 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

Figure 26 :

 26 Figure 17 The representative agent in the traditional version of MIRAGE ................................ Figure 27 The representative and public agent in the new version of MIRAGE........................ Figure 37 The new version of MIRAGE with household heterogeneity ....................................Figure 4: Framework to build a systematic and flexible treatment for a global model ................Figure 5: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ...................Figure 6: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 7: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .............. .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 8: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ................Figure 9: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............... Figure 10: Brazil -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ................. Figure 11: Pakistan -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 12: Tanzania -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............ ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Uruguay -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 14: Vietnam -2025 -Impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare ............. Figure 15: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 16: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 17: Tanzania-2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 18: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ...................................................... Figure 19: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the total impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare into a price effect and an income effects ......................................................Figure 20: Brazil -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 21: Pakistan -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households' welfare........................................................................................................................................... Figure 22: Tanzania -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare ....................................................................................................................... Figure 23: Uruguay -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 24: Vietnam -2010/2025 -Dynamic impact of full trade liberalization on households'welfare .......................................................................................................................Figure 25: Brazil -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ...Figure 26: Pakistan -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income Figure 27: Tanzania -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income .......................................................................................................................................................Figure 28: Uruguay -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income ....................................................................................................................................................... Figure 29: Vietnam -2025 -Decomposition of the variation of households' disposable income

  9937 <53&7 5CD6C35427 63<6627 9)547 C27 D5C367 C623:+7 ;C)67 @7 567 87 &4<7 E94&73&67&496&4)E7<6)*CD6757C**6436787*9))73DC67)56DC)5CC35427527 ! @75273&67*56744923D567*

  $&496&4)73DC2*6D7CD672437&5&6D73&C27#+#76D46237 9527 C4)9367 C)96:7 4*7 C27 &496&4)E7 ! @7 54C)67 5244E67 527 3&67 C6)5267 539C35427 93&57 57 3&67 4C67 4*7

Table 1 .

 1

	)5,A2B79%E4CCB5CAE2D9

4.1 Database, disaggregation of households and simulation scenario9

	66A7 3&67 CD5C2467 4*7 5244E67 <53&527 D497 57 E525E5C6A7 <&5)67 3&67 CD5C2467 C4D47 D497 57
	EC,5E5C6+7>645*54752*4DEC354274273&67&496&4)79D6879675276C4&74C6757D662367527;C)67-+
	Table 2.	52CB06E,798E4CCB5CAE2D
	674C)5DC36749D7E46)7<53&73&67B;1F7C3CC6A7<&54&757C7442536237D6D6623C354274*73&67
	<4D)764424E87527 !!FA7524)952752*4DEC35427427""#7D65427C27@F744EE45356 " +767CD6C367 >49D46'7C93&4DE76)C4DC3542
	B;1F752347C7D69467C3CC674*7 237D65427C2719 76434DA7<&54&7CD67654367427;C)67"7C27 +
	1E4273&67D65427524)9675273&67E46)A7<67524)967*56766)452744923D567*4D7<&54&7<67
	C)87 &496&4)7 5CD6C35427 C7 D662367 527 3&67 D65497 643542'7 .D99C8A7 8DCC5)A7 25632CEA7
	C53C27C27;C2CC25C+7;&6729E6D74*7D6D6623C3567&496&4)7CD5675276C4&744923D87C7C7D69)374*7
	3&67 4)936D527 D4469D6A7 3&C37 D4567 5**6D6237 435E9E7 29E6D7 4*7 4)936D7 527 6C4&7 4C6+7 27 C287
	4C6A7 <67 CD67<4D527 <53&7 63<6627 "#$#D7 &496&4)7 D497 527 6C4&7 44923D8+7;C)67 #7 D662373&67
	523DC7 C27 5236D7 &496&4)7 5244E67 CD5C2467 C7 C7 44261962467 4*7 3&67 4)936D527 E63&4+7 17 <67 4C27
	" 7CDC8C2C27C27C)E)6879 !!7:7

Table 3 . D7F4E492+9EDAB9D89EDA5B96234562789ED,2591BED,56975B9,0EA9ED,2569$65E79 ED8559D89A4ED42D/9ED855

 3

>49D46'7C93&4DE76)C4DC35427

Table 4 .

 4 123456278943B15F493458

	>49D46'7C93&4DE76)C4DC35427
	67 967 C7 9D649D56:7 82CE547 6D5427 4*7 01BF7 <&6D67 64424E547 D4<3&7 57 D6D662367
	3&D49&7 3&67 C449E9)C35427 4*7 D5ECD87 *C434D7 96,46249)87 44246D2527 )C4DA7 6246249)87
	44246D2527 )C27 C27 4C53C):7 C27 CA93E6237 4*7 343C)7 *C434D7 D494355387 347 4C39D67 364&254C)7

4.5 Price effect vs. income effect

		;DC67 D6*4DE7 E45*567 3&67 4429E35427 D5467 4*7 447 49&37 87 6C4&7 &496&4)7 C27 3&67
	*C434D7D6E926DC354273&C37636DE5267&496&4)E7D66296+73757<4D3&75623C2)5273&67468D9DD837
	9CD5C354274*7C7&496&4)E7<6)*CD675E)567873&67D6*4DE7926D74423C237D66296:7C273&6768BAD9
	DD8379CD5C354274*7C7&496&4)E7<6)*CD675E)567873&67D6*4DE7926D74423C2374429E35427D546:7
	*D4E7C73DC67D6*4DE+
		H496&4)E7 <6)*CD67 CD5C35427 57 E6C9D67 527 36DE7 4*7 H545C27 6195C)6237 CD5C3542+7
	6E6E6D7 3&C37	r AUXh , 757 3&67 935)5387 4*7 &496&4)7 hh 7527 44923D87 r A7 3&57 935)5387 662527 427 hh
	4429E6D7 D5467	r PC , 7C27 54C)67 5244E67 i	hh DISREVh ,	r	"F 79<67 4E537 3&67 35E67 CD5C)67 t 7*4D7
	4426256246:+
		*7 52535C)7 539C35427 9526,67 87 0 :7 57 4&CDC436D5C67 87 4429E6D7 D5467	0 i PC 7C27 54C)67
	5244E67	0 DISREVh 79<674E537526,67&&7C27D7*4D74426256246:A7*52C)7539C3542717574&CDC436D5C6787
	4429E6D7 D5467		1 i PC 7C27 54C)67 5244E67	1 DISREVh 7C27 ( PC e	k i AUXh ;	k	)	757 3&67 6,62539D67
	*92435427 44DD642527 347 4429E6D7 D5467	k i PC 7C27 935)5387	k AUXh 79E525EC)7 )66)7 4*7 &496&4)E7
	D662967 D6195D67 347 D6C4&7 935)5387	k AUXh 7<&627 4429E6D7 D5467 CD67	k i PC :A7 3&627 3&67 H545C27
	6195C)6237CD5C354279 EV :74&CDC436D5C5273&6744ECD542763<6627539C35427 0 7C2717576*52678'
		EV	=	e	( PC	0 i	;	AUXh	1	) ( PC e -	0 i	;	AUXh	0	)	(26)
		27 4D6D7 347 6C)9C367 3&67 D5467 6**6437 C27 3&67 5244E67 6**6437 <67 4C)49)C367 C27 5236DE65C367
	539C35427 <&6D67 3&67 &496&4)7 637 &57 52535C)7 5244E67 C27 C33C527 935)5387	h AUX ′ 7944DD642527 347
	EC,5EC)7 935)5387 *4D7 3&57 4429E6D7 <&627 4429E6D7 D5467 CD67	1 i PC 7C27 54C)67 5244E67 57
	0 DISREVh :+7;&6D6*4D673&67D54676**6437574C)49)C367C'
		EV	P	=	e	( PC	0 i	;	AUX	h	′	) ( PC e -	0 i	;	AUXh	0	)

27 1226,A7 *59D67 @7 347 D7 5))93DC367 3&67 644E4535427 4*7 3&67 CD5C35427 4*7 &496&4)E7 54C)67 5244E67 527 ! @7 C7 C7 44261962467 4*7 3DC67 D6*4DE+7 ;&57 644E4535427 57 43C5267 87