Silvia Meggiolaro

R23 -Regional Migration|Regional Labor Markets|Population

Keywords: reproductive intentions, contextual effects, sub-municipal detail, Milan. JEL CODES: R23 -Regional Migration -Regional Labor Markets -Population R2 -Household Analysis

This paper aims at studying the contextual effect on reproductive intentions with an innovative approach. It considers women and the groups to which they belong "close up", using data in very great territorial detail with reference to an Italian metropolitan area. This allows us to describe context in an in-depth and original way, thus examining the mechanism underlying the formation of fertility intentions.

Results suggest that, besides the importance of individual factors and preferences, reproductive choices are influenced also by some characteristics of the places in which individuals live.

INTRODUCTION

Nowadays, studying the components of the decision to have or not to have a child may be very worthwhile. Reproductive intentions play a crucial role in the process of behaviour formation [START_REF] Bongaarts | Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies[END_REF]. This is particularly true in a context such as that obtaining in Western countries, where the decision to have a child increasingly becomes a conscious choice taken by individuals. Birth control, now common and accessible to most people, induces a feature of consciousness into fertility conduct which means that a component of prediction may be added to evaluations of reproductive intentions. Although some studies show that reproductive projects are prone to overestimate effective behaviour [START_REF] Freedman R | Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: their relation to final parity[END_REF]WESTOFF and RYDER, 1977;[START_REF] Monnier | Projets de fécondité et fécondité effective[END_REF], in more recent analyses the high consistency of fertility intentions for subsequent behaviour is observed [START_REF] Schoen R | Do fertility intentions affect fertility behaviour?[END_REF]SYMEONIDOU, 2000;[START_REF] Menniti | Fertility intentions and subsequent behaviour: first results of a panel study[END_REF].

Examining the formation of intentions about fertility is of interest. Studying reproductive orientation determinants may suggest the causes of low fertility levels (in Italy, they are among the lowest in Europe) and help to predict future behaviour. This paper considers reproductive intentions, aiming at examining whether and how the characteristics of area of residence influence them. Individual orientations (and, in particular, reproductive intentions) may indeed be greatly affected by social context and reference groups such as family and neighbouring community, and larger geographical or administrative levels. Clearly, therefore, intentions should be contextualised, in order to understand demographic behaviour completely. Confirmation of the importance of context may also have considerable implications for future social policies.

In recent years, considerable attention has been focused on the contextual influence on demographic behaviour (for a review, see [START_REF] Courgeau | Multilevel analysis in the social sciences[END_REF]. As regards reproductive behaviour, many studies suggest an analytical approach in which, besides individual characteristics, social norms, institutions, economic and environmental conditions have some very detailed territorial level. From this point of view, Milan is the occasion for innovative contextual analysis, since this metropolis has appropriate and useful features. Besides the availability of considerable information about demographic, economic and social phenomena at sub-municipal detail, Milan has typical features for contextual analysis. It covers more than 180 sq.

km., has a population of more than 1,200,000 (population registry at 31/12/2003) and a high population density (about 7,000 persons/sq. km.). This means that very heterogeneous neighbourhoods (and people), each with their own social and cultural identities, co-exist.

Individuals living in different areas may be presumed to be influenced in different ways in their choices. In addition, Milan, being a large metropolitan area, can act as a precursor for behaviours and trends.

The aims of this paper are reached through two types of data: individual and contextual.

Individual data came from a survey conducted in Milan in 2000, giving information on the individual characteristics and reproductive intentions of a sample of women living in the city.

Contextual data sources were analysed to describe the neighbourhoods in which they live. These data allow us to consider short-term reproductive intentions and to study how they may be influenced by the characteristics of the place of residence 2 .

The remainder of this paper is organised as follows. Section 2 discusses the importance of macro-factors in understanding fertility choices, in the light of hypotheses and empirical results in the literature. Section 3 describes data and models used in the analysis. Individual and contextual determinants of fertility intentions are examined in Section 4, which is followed by a Discussion and Conclusions in Section 5.

THE ROLE OF CONTEXT IN FORMING REPRODUCTIVE ORIENTATIONS AND BEHAVIOUR: BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES

The conceptual framework guiding this analysis follows the framework used in the literature on possible contextual aspects influencing reproductive behaviour and intentions. Here, that framework is extended to incorporate a more detailed description of the effects of potential neighbourhood factors influencing short-term reproductive intentions (see note 1). In particular, four complex contextual dimensions are considered. Although they refer to different aspects, they also show some partial overlaps.

First of all, theory and previous research suggested the role of social norms in determining reproductive choices: we refer to social interactions [START_REF] Bongaarts | Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions[END_REF][START_REF] Montgomery | Social networks and the diffusion of fertility control[END_REF]. According to this process, women living in neighbourhoods with "post-modern" demographic characteristics (e.g., an older population, or many single-parent families) may be more prone to having lower fertility levels, whereas neighbourhoods with more children may lead women to similar behaviour [START_REF] Rivellini | Comportamenti riproduttivi: biografie individuali e contesto in un'ottica multilevel[END_REF]. This hypothesis is extended here to reproductive intentions and may be examined by considering the demographic structure of the area of residence.

The second contextual dimension refers to the balance of costs and benefits of having children.

As regards costs, we may presume that neighbourhoods with better services and structures favour the presence of children, and consequently influence women positively in their reproductive choices. In this situation, available services become a support for families with children, reducing their costs. Thus, examining community level characteristics related to the existence of formal services may be worthwhile (although some services may have a larger scope than just neighbourhoods). This hypothesis is not confirmed at micro-level in the literature (in the case of Italy, see [START_REF] Ongaro | Servizi alle persone e comportamenti familiari[END_REF]), but it is often used to explain differing fertility levels in European countries: higher in the north of Europe (CONSEIL de L'EUROPE, 2000) and lower in Mediterranean countries 3 . Similar observations may be noted, considering informal services and aspects connected with the social network. For example, the presence of children in neighbourhoods may decrease the high cost of having children, because some care activities are shared in a network with the same necessities. In line with these remarks, it may also be interesting to examine women's participation in the labour market 4 : in areas with high female occupation rates, fewer women are available for informal networks, so that residents may be less disposed towards having children because they feel that the neighbourhood network, which should help with children's care, is less strong. In fact, high female labour market participation may lead to the development of family services, to cater for working mothers' needs, so that the intention of having a child may increase, because opportunity costs decrease.

As regards benefits, in present-day society, children have psychological and social value rather than an economic benefit value. Their advantages are more difficult to observe in comparison with costs and, in particular, "the pleasure of children" is more evident for people living in neighbourhoods characterised by many children [START_REF] Ongaro | Scelte riproduttive fra costi, valori, opportunità[END_REF]. It may be presumed that, in these contexts, the reproductive intentions of individuals are higher.

Another contextual dimension (which is partly connected with the cost-benefit balance) refers to trust in or fear of the future. Living in situations of unesase or social degradation or in areas of low socio-economic status may create a climate of fear of the future. Women living in such areas may suppress their desire to have children, to protect themselves from the problems of children (or of the family). In comparison with the researches mentioned above, in this paper the aspect of trust in the future is analysed in more depth, also considering the social vitality of the residence community. The environment may support friendly relationships among residents, so that they form groups. Individuals who feel lonely or isolated may have less faith in their neighbours and in the future, and are thus presumed to have lower fertility intentions. The opposite may happen among individuals living in a positive social context, which produces a situation of security and a sense of protection (for a review of studies on neighbourhood effects of social cohesion and social problems, see [START_REF] Sampson R | Assessing "neighborhood effects": social processes and new directions in research[END_REF].

Lastly, an important contextual dimension is the cultural one. VAN DE KAA (2001) attributes low fertility choices to post-modern and post-materialist values, according to which the centre of the preference system is individualism, in contraposition to more altruistic, traditional values which, for example, are expressed in the desire to have a child. However, having children may be viewed positively by post-materialist individuals, as it may constitute an important element in their perception of well-being and self-realisation. Various characteristics of the place of residence may be connected with this dimension. Again, the level of female occupation may be an important indicator: where women's labour market participation is high, we expect to find a value system in which the propensity for having children is low (the value of work may be in competition with the values of the family and of children). In fact, this hypothesis is not confirmed from a macro point of view (see [START_REF] Ahn | A note of the relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries[END_REF].

DATA AND METHODS

DATA SOURCES

The data used in this paper are numerous and of various natures.

Individual data refer to the Survey "Fecondità e Contesto: tra certezze e aspettative" ("Fertility and Context: certainties versus expectations"), conducted in Milan in 2000. This survey was a re-proposal at local level of the "Second national survey on fertility control and expectations" (Inf-2, DE SANDRE et al., 1999) of the international project started in the 1990s, "Fertility and Family Survey" project. The sample is made up of women living in Milan, between 20 and 49 years old, and some of their partners (for details about sampling, see [START_REF] Rossi R | Fecondità e contesto: tra certezze e aspettative. Prime elaborazioni -dati provvisori[END_REF][START_REF] Semisa | Uno sguardo alla metodologia, in Fecondità e contesto: tra certezze e aspettative. Dalla "Seconda Indagine Nazionale sulla Fecondità[END_REF], and is representative of the city. Data for women from the Survey are used here for information about individual characteristics and, in particular, about short-term fertility intentions.

Contextual data are considered to describe the neighbourhoods in which the women live.

The area of residence is known for each woman. In particular, this paper refers to the administrative division of Milan into 20 districts (used until 1999; see figure 1). Many sources of various natures are available: administrative (e.g., personal and electoral data), those provided by two data banks of the "Statistical Sector" of Milan (Sistema Informativo Infanzia e Adolescenza -Childhood and Youth Informative System, and Banca Dati Anagrafe Scolastica -School Registry Data Bank), (Figure 1 about here)

INDIVIDUAL DATA

Survey data yield information on the reproductive intentions and individual characteristics of a sample of 839 women resident in the municipal area of Milan. Data about reproductive intentions were obtained for 790 women, the focus of this paper (5.8% of interviewees did not answer this question because they were infertile for non-contraceptive reasons). Table 1 lists the distributions of some of their characteristics, which are used in subsequent analyses.

(Table 1 about here) Reproductive intentions were obtained by considering two questions of the survey. The first question asked every interviewee if she intended to have children in the next few years; if she answered positively, she was asked to specify when she would like to have her first/next child.

Matching these two questions, women were grouped into four categories: women with short-term intentions of having children (within 3 years), women with more long-term intentions (over 3 years), uncertain women, and women who did not intend to have any (more) children. This paper focuses on short-term intentions, because they probably express more realistic orientations, having strong consistency with subsequent fertility. Table 1 shows that about 25% of women want to have (more) children within the next three years.

It is interesting to note (table 2 andfigure 2) that this percentage varies considerably across the districts of residence. Clearly, the differences may be due to the relatively small sample size in some districts. In fact, the differences may be explained by differences in demographic composition across districts. Lastly, there may be a contextual effect, which is the focus of this paper. Before concentrating on this effect, the potential individual determinants of short-term intentions are considered.

(Table 2 about here) (Figure 2 about here)

Obviously, short-term fertility orientations vary considerably, according to some basic demographic characteristics such as women's age at the survey, parity, and family situations. In particular, as regards the latter, in the following some characteristics such as marital status, marital duration and intentions of marrying are considered 5 . In a context like the Italian one, about 90% of births occur within marriage (GESANO et al., 2007), and at least one birth occurs during the first few years of most marriages [START_REF] Kertzer | Italy's path to very low fertility. The adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories[END_REF]. Therefore, married women (especially in the first years of marriage) are expected to express short-term intentions at a greater rate than women in other positions. Similar observations may be made for women planning to marry.

Two variables are then examined to take into account women's socio-economic status: education and employment status. Education is expected to broaden individuals' perception of life by making them aware of career opportunities and of the possibilities for self-fulfilment in many other ways (different from childbearing). In addition, the time devoted to children may be perceived as competing against other opportunities [START_REF] Hotz | The economics of fertility in developed Countries[END_REF]. Consequently, women achieving a high educational level are presumed to prefer smaller families, compared with less educated women. In the same way, employed women are expected to be oriented towards lower fertility levels in comparison with housewives. In fact, some studies suggest that educational level is an important factor in determining the timing but not the quantum of family formation (see, for example, [START_REF] Skirbekk | Birth-month, school graduation and the timing of births and marriage[END_REF]. Religious participation is considered to show whether religious feelings strengthen the fundamental values attributed to children and thus increase fertility perspectives (SORVILLO and MARSILI, 1999).

Besides variables about interviewees' socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics, other variables which may influence fertility orientations are also controlled for. In particular, some characteristics of the original family are examined, to describe women's family and cultural models (number of children of interviewee's mother, and separated or divorced parents).

The underlying hypothesis is that the family of origin is an example, so that some attitudes are repeated and imitated. In addition, these variables are indicators of the women's social background.

Lastly, a variable representing women's social and neighbourhood network may be important (presence of friends to call upon for small needs).

CONTEXTUAL DATA: SIMPLE INDICATORS AND COMPOSITE

INDEXES

As mentioned above, contextual data refer to the administrative division of Milan into 20 districts. Each administrative districts was defined by a number (from 1 to 20): as figure 1 illustrates, district 1 corresponds to the historic centre of the city, districts 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 form a sort of ring immediately round the centre, and the other districts are suburbs. The size of the districts differs greatly. Their average population was about 63,000, varying from 23,000 to 98,000 (Table 2). They cover 9.1 sq. km on average, varying from 2.5 to 20.1 sq. km (Table 2). These 20 districts are described through various simplex indicators (appendix A lists elementary data, data sources and year of reference 6 ) bearing in mind the four contextual dimensions considered in section 2.

First, some information referring to demographic structure (e.g., age, type of family, marital status of residents) examines the role of social norms and social interaction. As regards the contextual dimension referring to cost-benefit analysis, data on cultural, sports, children's services, and environmental quality are taken into account.

To identify districts creating a climate of serenity and faith in the future (the third dimension of section 2), three aspects are considered. The first describes "social unease", by which we mean, for example, the presence of children who miss one school year, situations of problems with minors and families in difficulty, followed by the social services. The second aspect examines the socioeconomic context: data was collected on (female and male) jobs, education and housing conditions.

The third aspect describes social cohesion, considering the presence of groups such as church organisations and community centres.

Lastly, the cultural dimension is described through electoral behaviour 7 (with reference to the election of the Chamber of Deputies, 13 May 2001).

In this way, six thematic areas were defined (thematic areas are used to describe a context by several authors, e.g., ZAJCZYK, 1997, andVITALI andMERLINI, 1999 Several methods may be used, some based on factor analysis [START_REF] Gnanadesikan R | Methods for Statistical Data Analysis of Multivariate Observations[END_REF]ZELLER and CARMINES, 1980;[START_REF] Fergany | Quality of life indices for Arab countries in an international context[END_REF]. Other important techniques may be found in the order procedures used to describe life quality by VITALI and MERLINI (1999) and [START_REF] Aiello | How to transform a batch of simple indicators to make up a unique one?[END_REF]. Methods based on factor analysis may be used, because it studies the interrelationships among a group of variables in order to describe them in terms of common dimensions. It "extracts" factors or dimensions from the original variables, reducing them to a small number of factors that can serve as composite variables. In the present paper, the first two factors, which explain the highest amount of variance in the original data, are extracted for each thematic area examined by factor analysis. The factor structure matrixes (appendix B) may be considered to interpret factors. In particular, for the demographic area, the first indicator is found to be connected with family types, and the second with demographic ageing: positive values denote "post-modern" characteristics (section 2). As regards social unease, the first contextual factor is associated with severe situations of unease, the second factor refers to less severe ones: for both indexes negative values are indicative of the absence of unease situations. The first indicator of the socio-economic context measures socio-economic level (and is positively associated with disadvantaged conditions); the second may be used to represent female participation in the labour market (appendix B suggests that positive values of this factor refer to high female participation). Lastly, as regards the two electoral dimensions, the first is related to the opposition between Right and Left parties (negative values denoting right-wing views), and the second to the different conception and ideas of community solidarity observed among political parties (positive values referring to solidarity).

The two remaining areas (services and community vitality) are conflated by another method which is based on an order procedure. It is more proper to conflate non-correlated indicators (such as those relating to services and social vitality). This method may be divided into two phases: the first is a transformation aiming at the comparability of different measures, and the second examines the process of reconstruction of single indicators to a composite indicator, through a link function.

Therefore, the first transformation yields dimensionless data which, through the second function, can be combined into one, which is a measure of the underlying concept (for details, see VITALI and MERLINI, 1999). This technique does not use different weights for the various simple Table 3 lists these processes of variable construction, reporting some information and statistics for the contextual indexes of the six thematic areas considered here.

(Table 3 about here)

METHODS

As analysed in section 2, in this study it makes sense to take the hierarchical structure (defined by the woman's district of residence) into account. In fact, a micro-macro scheme [START_REF]Foundations of Social Theory[END_REF]) may be used, since individual and contextual levels interact with each other. In this paper, however, only the macro-micro direction is considered, studying the potential effect of the context of residence. In the following, to examine how this is obtained, p is the probability of expressing the short-term intention of having children, x is the covariate at the individual (woman) level, and z is the explicative variable at the context (district of residence) level. Subscript i stands for individual (in this case i = 1, …, 790) and j for context (here, j = 1, …, 20).

A first "traditional" way of analysing our grouped data includes both levels (district of residence and woman level), but not in equal roles. Individual level covariates are involved as in regression models, but at the same time contexts (defined by the districts of residence) are allowed to differ in the intercepts. In this model, dummy variables are used to code group membership:

( ) ij j ij bx a p logit + = , (1)
where a j denotes a different intercept for each context j (in fact, in model estimation, a constant and 19 dummy variables, which correspond to the districts from 2 to 20, are used: in this way, districts 1 is the reference category and other district coefficients must be interpreted as differences from district 1) and b is the same slope for every context, describing the effect of individual covariate x ij .

With this technique we can ascertain whether districts are equal in short-term reproductive intentions, corrected for differences in women's characteristics.

In a subsequent step, macro-level explanatory variable z j is introduced to explain differences across districts observed with model (1). The following equation shows this step:

j j z a 01 00 γ γ + = .
(2)

Note that we actually fit a single model, which becomes clear when we substitute macroequation ( 2) into micro-equation ( 1). We obtain the single equation:

( )

j ij ij z x p logit 01 10 00 γ γ γ + + = . (3)
Of course, in the models used here, there is more than one covariate on both levels.

Random effects at group level (as in multilevel models; see, for example, SNIJDERS and BOSKER, 1999) are not used. Instead, a fixed-effect model with contextual variables (a particular case of the random coefficient model; [START_REF] Kreft | Introducing Multilevel Modelling[END_REF] is considered. This model is more appropriate in cases such as ours, in which second-level units (the 20 districts of residence)

are not a sample from a wider population, but the only groups of interest. This does not mean that the intra-cluster correlations embedded in the data structure are not taken into account in parameter estimation 8 .

In fact, there may be a methodological limitation in this paper. (1996) it may influence the stability of results. A Bayesian approach may be the solution; in fact, here the stability of the results is ensured by estimating fixed effects models 9 .

RESULTS

INDIVIDUAL DETERMINANTS OF SHORT-TERM REPRODUCTIVE INTENTIONS

A logistic regression model describes the probability of expressing the intention of having a child within 3 years. The selection of parameters to be included in the model is obtained with parsimony; a model with single effects and some interaction effects is chosen, avoiding higherorder interactions for simpler interpretation of results.

Table 4 lists the estimates of the coefficients for the final model with single effects (no interaction was significant).

(Table 4 about here)

Confirming literature data (see, for example, [START_REF] De Sandre | Matrimonio e figli: tra rinvio e rinuncia[END_REF], age has a significant effect on short-term reproductive intentions. In fact, a non-monotonic effect is found: it suggests that the highest probability of expressing a short-term intention of having children is found among women aged 30-34. Women under 30 and women aged 35-39 are almost three times (respectively, exp (1.12) = 3.1 and exp (1.02) = 2.8) as likely to express the intention of having children in the short term than those in the reference group (40 or over). The non-monotonic effect may be due to the fact that only short-term reproductive intentions are considered. Younger women Women married for less than 5 years (or those who are planning to marry) are more prone to express intentions of having children soon, rather than never married women (who do not plan to marry in the next two years). The long duration of a marriage and the state of the end of an union have the same effects as those observed for never married women 10 .

The other covariates have no significant effects. This result is unexpected, in particular, as regards the variables on socio-economic status and on church attendance.

As regards socio-economic status variables (education and employment status), the unexpected results may be connected with the low fertility level which characterises Italy (women of the sample have a lower fertility level than the national one; [START_REF] Sandre | Fecondità contraccezione, figli attesi: cambiamenti e incertezze, in Fecondità e contesto: tra certezze e aspettative. Dalla "Seconda Indagine Nazionale sulla Fecondità" alla realtà locale[END_REF]. For example, a negative association is usually presumed between female labour force participation (or, generally, human capital variables) and fertility in the incompatibility of rearing children and staying in the workforce in today's society. However, several recent studies have suggested that the link between fertility and female employment is weakening, due to the greater availability of childcare services, family policies, changing attitudes towards working mothers, and changing gender roles (VIKAT, 2004;[START_REF] Santow | Deferment of the first birth and fluctuating fertility in Sweden[END_REF]. In particular, in some countries women may be able to combine work and childrearing more successfully. In addition, women's economic independence (due to their participation in the labour market) may promote fertility, granting economic resources and security also in perspective terms (see [START_REF] Salvini | Low Italian fertility: the Bonaccia of the Antilles?[END_REF].

Many studies have indeed found a positive relationship between female earnings and childbearing (for example, [START_REF] Andersson | The impact of labour-force participation on childbearing behaviour: procyclical fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s[END_REF]VIKAT, 2004). In the present study, Milan, with the typical features of large metropolitan areas, may act as a precursor of innovative trends: the presence of innovative aspects may remove the traditionally negative effect of human capital variables on fertility orientations.

Although coefficients of church attendance are all positive, they are not significant. Again, this result was unexpected (the literature shows significant effects, e.g., SORVILLO and MARSILI, 1999) and should be studied in depth in future researches. In any case, a preliminary supposition is made, as there may be a spurious effect of the high intercorrelation of religious participation and children already born 11 .

SHORT-TERM REPRODUCTIVE INTENTIONS AND THE EFFECT OF CONTEXT

Using model (1) described in paragraph 3.4 with the specification of a constant and 19 dummy covariates (districts 2-20), we analyse whether there are any differences in short-term reproductive intentions according to women's areas of residence 12 . Results are listed in table 5.

With respect to the model with individual variables only, there are no great differences in individual level coefficient estimates (except for the significance of the effect of employment status), but it is interesting to examine the differences among the districts 13 .

(Table 5 about (Figure 3 about here)

Thus, a contextual component may be seen in reproductive intentions. The next step lies in examining which contextual covariates explain these differences. Contextual model ( 3) is applied, referring to the contextual variables described in paragraph 3.3 (see table 3). Table 6 lists the results. Only two contextual variables turn out to be significant. The first is related to the less severe situations of minor unease, and the second describes community social cohesion 14 .

(Table 6 about here)

Women living in districts characterised by less social unease are more prone to express short-term intentions of having children than women resident in districts with some forms of unease (high rates of school drop-out, many minors followed by the social services, etc.).

In addition, the more a community is vital and characterised by social cohesion, the more frequently resident women are prone to short-term projects for having a child.

Although this result is very interesting and not completely expected, it must be interpreted with caution. The individual-level counterpart of the latter contextual variable (representing social and neighbourhood network of women) was included in the model describing individual determinants of reproductive intentions and table 4 shows that it had not influence on women's short-term reproductive intentions. Unfortunately, the individual-level counterpart of social unease cannot be included because of a lack of proper data. Individual aspects connected with family background may be presumed to control, at least partly, individual unease. The other contextual variables have no significant effects. In particular, social interactions, described by the demographic structure of the place of residence, do not seem to be important. The presence of services, as supports for families with children, is probably not perceived as a determinant factor in childbearing plans (moreover, the presence of services in the place of residence may be not as important as, for example, the presence of services in the place of work; or, as mentioned in Section 2, some services may cover more than only one district). Lastly, the cultural and the socio-economic dimensions of the place of residence do not influence women as regards fertility intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper aims at studying the contextual effect on reproductive intentions with an innovative approach. It considers women and the groups to which they belong "close up", using data in very great territorial detail. This detail allows us to describe context in an in-depth and original way, thus examining the mechanism underlying the formation of fertility intentions.

Results suggest that there are some contextual aspects influencing women's short-term reproductive orientations. In particular, the idea that emerges from this study is that, besides the importance of individual factors and preferences, the intention to have a child is probably taken only in conditions of well-being and serenity, which do not derive only from individuals but also from some characteristics of the places in which they live.

On one hand, these conditions may be reached by avoiding some forms of unease: the hypothesis of a "prudent" point of view, according to which women living in problematic environments are less likely to express positive reproductive intentions, as if to protect themselves from problem situations such those they observe in their residential context.

On the other hand, well-being and serenity may only be achieved in the context of a vital community characterised by social cohesion. Feeling part of a group produces a sense of security and protection, trust in the future, the ideal "climate" for thinking about having a child. Conversely, living in a context where women feel alone or isolated is associated with a lower probability of making a "demanding" choice such as that of having (more) children.

Clearly, in the current context of low fertility, understanding what kind of evaluation women make in the decision to have a child or not is not easy. In addition, the mechanisms which form fertility intentions should also be examined within a couple perspective (which is not considered here because of the lack of proper data about partners). However, this paper suggests that a context which allows women to feel confident about the future may allow them to feel ready to face the uncertainties connected with their choices. In this way, social policies may play an important role.

In particular, interventions aimed at creating a serene environment and thus at supporting families with children are worthwhile. Structured actions (that go further than strictly economic aspects), in which the definite will of society to share and support the role of mothers is clearcut, may induce in them that greater serenity, sense of trust in the future and security, which all go towards forming the ideal climate to think about having children. 4 As regards the effect of resident employment status, there are various theories on how they may influence fertility at micro-and macro-levels, and hypotheses are not always univocal (see [START_REF] Brewster | Fertility and women's employment in industrialized nations[END_REF], for a review of the effects of women's participation in the labour market).

5 There is clearly a biunivocal relation between childbearing (plans) and marriage/divorce decisions (i.e., there may be a causality problem). However, reproductive intentions are reached differently according to marital status, and must be standardised.

children) and women who go to church regularly. The variable parity, included in the model, distinguishes women without children, women with one child, and women with two or more children. Among the latter category are women with three (or more) children: most of them regularly attend church, but they have already achieved satisfactory fertility and so do not want other children. This may lead to the spurious effect observed in the model. However, it was not possible to distinguish women with two children from women with three or more children, due to the small sample size.

12 aML software was used [START_REF] Lillard | AML Multilevel Multiprocess Statistical Software, Version 2.0[END_REF].

F

Services and environmental quality

-Presence of institution "Tempo per famiglie" ("Time for families") (= community centres) -Numbers of "centri didattici territoriali" ("local teaching centres") per sq. km.

-% of children unable to attend city-run nurseries (on waiting-lists)

Childhood and Youth Informative

System (SIA), 1999

-% green areas -% areas with parks and gardens Parks and Gardens Sector, 2004 Social unease -% truancy, school drop-outs, etc. 5).

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Regional Studies

  the 2001 Population Census, and data obtained from two departments of Milan ("Parks and Gardens" and "Decentralised Sectors").

  ): demographic structure; services and environmental quality; social unease (i.e., problem areas, trouble spots); socio-economic context; community vitality; electoral behaviour. Once a batch of simple indicators had been obtained for each area (see appendix A), the problem was to compose a single batch.

  , it has been shown to provide robust measures. Thus, we obtain two indicators, which describe services and community vitality.

  for not having children, but they are likely to have future expectations, particularly at more than 3 years.The effect of children already born is also highly discriminating. In particular, women who have already had two or more children have an odds ratio (o.r) of about one-fourth (exp (-1.54) = 0.21) that of childless women of expressing the intention of having more children within the next 3 years; the mothers of only one child do not show a different propensity in short-term intentions in comparison with women without children.

Figure 3

 3 Figure 3 represents these differences. Most districts show lower proportions of women with

  European countries, social-democratic welfare governments are more prone to reconciling female labour market participation and children, with intervention to the advantage of families. Conversely, Mediterranean countries are characterised by conservative welfare[START_REF] Esping-Andersen G | Social Foundations of Post-Industrial Economies[END_REF].

Figure 1 .Figure 2 .Figure 3 .

 123 Figure 1. Administrative division of Milan into 20 districts.

  13 In addition, the measures of association between predicted probabilities and observed responses, listed in the last row of the table, show how this model is improved with respect that of table 4.14 It is interesting to note that districts 12 and 15, where higher percentages of women who intend to have children in the short term were found by the previous model (table5), are characterised by a low level of social unease and a high level of community vitality (for details, see[START_REF] Meggiolaro | Un'analisi congiunta delle determinanti individuali e di contesto[END_REF].

	MASON W., WONG G. and ENTWISLE B. (1983) Contextual analysis through the multilevel Appendix A
	linear model, in LEINHARDT S. (Ed.) Sociological Methodology, pp. 72-103. Josey Bass, San
	Francisco. Elementary data used in six thematic areas describing context.
	Thematic areas Elementary indicators	Data source and year of reference
	Demographic	-% people over 65 in population
	structure	-% children (0-6) in population
	o r F o r F o r F o r F o r F o r F o r F o r -% individuals in family with 2 or more children -% individuals in young couples without children F -% people over 60 living alone -% married r -% children living in single-parent family o -% living alone	2001 Population Census
		P e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e -% separated or divorced P e -Numbers of theatres, cinemas and library per sq. km -Numbers of sport centres	Decentralised Sectors, 2004
		e r e r e r e r e r e r e r e r e r
		R R R R R R R R R
		e e e e e e e e e
		v i e v i e v i e v i e v i e v i e v i e v i e v i e
		w w w w w w w w w
		O n l O n l O n l O n l O n l O n l O n l O n l O n l
			y y y y y y y y y

Electoral behaviour Factor 1 (Right/left-wing parties) Factor 2 (conception of community solidarity)

  Factor structure matrixes after VARIMAX rotations (factor analyses).

	Appendix B
	Demographic structure	Factor 1 (family types)	Factor 2 (demographic ageing)
	-% individuals in family with 2 or more children	-0.7732	-0.1430
	-% individuals in young couples without children	-0.7753	-0.2131
	F o r -% children living in single-parent family -% living alone -% people over 60 living alone -% married -% separated or divorced F o r	0.7977 0.8233 -0.2740 -0.8732 0.8717 Factor 1	-0.4969 -0.4147 0.8964 -0.3427 0.4167 Factor 2
	P e -% truancy, school drop-outs, etc. Social unease P -% children in care e	(more severe unease situations) -0.1246 0.7939	(less severe unease situations) 0.9562 0.1822
	e r -% children dependent on Family Social Services -% children in community care -% families with children receiving supplementary benefits 0.6879 0.9145 0.5037 e r	-0.0255 0.7907 0.6817
	-% children in care -% children in community care -% children dependent on Family Social Services -% families with children receiving supplementary benefits R e v i e w Socio-economic context Factor 1 (socio-economic level) R -% 25-64 year-old population with university degrees -0.9905 -% 15-19 year-old population employed 0.9546 e -% unemployed 0.8941 -% dependent workers of total workers 0.9776 -% employed in high-qualification jobs -0.9933 -% houses in poor repair 0.8397 v i e -% women in labour market 0.0216 -% women employed part-time -0.6945 w	School Registry Data Bank, 2002-2003 SIA, 1999 Factor 2 (female participation in labour market) 0.0321 -0.2045 -0.2561 0.0218 0.0515 0.0358 0.9832 0.5093
	Socio-economic context -% of registered voters voting for extreme Left -% 25-64 year-old population with university degrees -% 15-19 year-old population employed -% unemployed -% dependent workers of total workers -% employed in high-qualification jobs -% houses in poor repair 0.9459 O n 2001 Population Census l y -0.0583 -% of registered voters voting for extreme Right -0.8735 -0.2949 -% of registered voters voting for Left 0.8839 O n l 0.0818 -% of registered voters voting for "Margherita*" (Left) -0.1694 0.9363 -% of registered voters voting for centre -0.7359 0.1104 y
	-% women in labour market -% women employed part-time -% of registered voters voting for coalition between centre and left-wing parties	0.9131	0.0217
	Community vitality -% of registered voters voting for "Forza Italia*" (Right) -Number of parish youth clubs -% of registered voters voting for "Lega Nord*" (Right)	-0.8024 0.7048	-0.0182 SIA, 1999 -0.4989
	-Number of associations -Number of district newspapers -% of registered voters voting for "Lista Bonino*" (Left)	-0.9395	Decentralised Sectors, 2004 0.1968
		-Presence of playgrounds		Parks and Gardens Sector, 2004
	Electoral behaviour	-% of registered voters voting for ten Electoral Registers at elections	Electoral Data Bank, 2001

Table 1 .

 1 Characteristics of women (percentages) according to explanatory variables.

	Characteristics

Table 2 .

 2 Percentages of women who intended to have children within next three years, by district of residence, sample sizes and some characteristics of districts.

	District no.	% of women who intended to have children within next	Sample size	Population	Sq. km
		three years
	1	26.7	60	78,364	8.3
	2	31.0	29	68,212	5.6
	3	27.3	33	48,492	2.5
	4	21.9	41	64,663	4.6
	5	14.6	41	56,095	4.1
	6	24.6	57	98,264	6.4
	7	13.6	22	31,598	4.4
	8	33.3	27	45,888	6.9
	9	19.2	26	46,511	7.3
	10	24.6	65	92,423	9.1
	11	27.9	54	92,747	5.4
	12	35.0	20	27,382	8.8
	13	38.5	20	23,332	9.6
	14	14.3	35	70,670	20.1
	15	39.3	28	51,192	9.5
	16	16.1	31	51,035	11.8
	17	27.3	44	76,046	6.9
	18	21.7	60	81,850	19.8
	19	20.6	63	88,964	16.3
	20	20.6	34	77,175	14.0

Table 4 .

 4 Individual factors influencing probability of intending to have a child within three years, according to logistic model (790 observations).

	b coefficients	Standard Errors

Presence of friends to call upon for small needs (reference

	F o r
	P
	e
	e r
	R
	e
	v i e
	w
	None	: Yes) 0.18 O n l	0.163
		y

Table 5 .

 5 Individual and contextual determinants of short-term reproductive intentions: separate intercepts logistic model (790 observations).

	coefficient	Standard Error

http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/cres Email: regional.studies@fm.ru.nlRegional Studies

Concerning this remark, a previous study with reference to Milan showed some neighbourhood effects in the process of loneliness perception among the elderly population (MICHELI and RIVELLINI,

2001).2 Short-term (rather than long-term) reproductive intentions are more probably affected by context than long-term intentions: the latter does represent more deep-rooted orientations and consequently may be less influenced by contextual aspects.

The reference to different years is not a limitation, as the social phenomena considered here change slowly over time.

The underlying hypothesis is that there is a link between the political-cultural climate of residence and the values systems of individuals. This hypothesis requires some caution: it presumes that there is not only an association between political orientations and the values system, but that this association also has consequences on the reproductive behaviour of individuals. In Italy, confirmation of this hypothesis is found at macro level, considering the link between referendum choices and reproductive behaviour (see[START_REF] Mannheimer R | Mutamento sociale e comportamento elettorale[END_REF], on the vote expressed for the 1974 abrogative referendum on divorce; LIVI[START_REF] Bacci | Donna, fecondità e figli. Due secoli di storia demografica[END_REF][START_REF] Zuanna | Nascere nelle cento Italie. Comportamenti coniugali e riproduttivi nelle province italiane negli anni '80 e '90[END_REF].

In particular, with aML software[START_REF] Lillard | AML Multilevel Multiprocess Statistical Software, Version 2.0[END_REF], the multilevel residual structure is an explicit feature of the estimation procedure.

However, preliminary analyses considering models with random effects, estimated by means of an approximation of the likelihood given by the numerical integration of residuals and based on Gauss-Hermite quadrature (see[START_REF] Abramowitz | Handbook of Mathematical Functions[END_REF], give similar results, with negligible variance of random components.

Never married women also include women in consensual unions, as in preliminary analyses they do not show different reproductive intentions with respect to never married women who do not live with a partner.

A close association is indeed observed between women who have already achieved high fertility (with three or more

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author would like to thank Fausta Ongaro and Nicola Torelli for helpful and valuable comments on the drafts of this paper, and Stan Panis for his useful suggestions on aML use and model specification. I would also like to thank the associate editor and two anonymous referees for their comments that greatly improved this paper.

< R2 -Household Analysis < R -Urban, Rural, and Regional

SORVILLO M. P. and MARSILI M. (1999) Aspettative di fecondità, in DE SANDRE P., PINNELLI A. and SANTINI A. (Eds.) Nuzialità e fecondità in trasformazione, percorsi e fattori del cambiamento, pp. 667-682. Il Mulino, Bologna. SYMEONIDOU H. (2000) Expected and actual family size in Greece: 1983-1997, European Journal of Population 16 (4), 335-352. TESTA M. P. and GRILLI L. (2006) The influence of childbearing regional contexts on ideal family size in Europe, Population 61 (1-2), 99-127. VAN DE KAA D. (2001) Postmodern fertility preferences: from changing value orientation to new behaviour. Global fertility transition, in BULATAO R. and CASTERLINE J. (Eds.) Global fertility transition, a supplement to vol. 27 of Population and Development Review, 290-331. VIKAT A. (2004) Women's labor force attachment and childbearing in Finland, Demographic Research 3, 177-212. VITALI O. and MERLINI A. (1999) La qualità della vita: metodi e verifiche, Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica LIII (2), 5-93. WESTOFF C. F. and RYDER N. B. (1977) The predictive validity of reproductive intentions, Demography 14 (4), 431-453. ZAJCZYK F. (1997) Il mondo degli indicatori sociali. La Nuova Italia Scientifica, Roma. ZELLER R. A. and CARMINES E. G. (1980) Measurement in the Social Sciences, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

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