Marco Breschi

A E Alessio

Fornasin Ae

Matteo Manfredini Ae

Marianna Zacchigna

A Fornasin

Á M Zacchigna

M Manfredini
email: matteo.manfredini@unipr.it

Family Composition and Remarriage in Pre-Transitional Italy: A Comparative Study

Keywords: Remarriage, Household Structure, Italy

It is well known that timing and intensity of remarriage were strictly dependent upon demographic, socio-economic, cultural and legislative factors specific to each community. Thus, the aim of this paper is to compare the extent to which such factors may affect the remarriage patterns of three pre-transitional Italian populations that were different in many respects. By using micro-level data of the sharecropping communities of Casalguidi and Madregolo and the Alpine village of Treppo Carnico, we highlighted similarities and differences in the respective remarriage patterns, in particular, the far lower intensity in the mountain community with respect to the sharecropping ones. Our findings show that along with differences in the demographic system, household structure and land tenure, normative elements concerning widows and the dotal system could in part explain the differentials we found.

donne ´es a `l'e ´chelle micro en provenance des communaute ´s de me ´tayers de Casaguildi et Madregolo et du village Alpin de Treppo Carnico, nous avons mis en e ´vidence des similarite ´s et des diffe ´rences dans les modalite ´s des remariages, et en particulier une intensite ´bien moindre du phe ´nome `ne dans la communaute ´montagnarde que dans les communaute ´s de me ´tayers. Nos re ´sultats indiquent que, en paralle `le aux diffe ´rences en matie `re de syste `me de ´mographique, de structure des me ´nages et de re ´gime de proprie ´te ´foncie `re, des e ´le ´ments normatifs concernant le veuvage et le syste `me de dot pourraient expliquer une partie des diffe ´rences observe ´es.

Mots-cle ´s Remariage Á Structure des me ´nages Á Italie 1 Remarriage in Pre-Transitional Italy Remarriage is a very complex phenomenon depending on both mortality and marriage patterns. Sophisticated analyses are necessary to prepare the ground for historical interpretation of trends and differentials. Quantitative information in the pre-statistical period is scarce. In Italy, the first statistics of marriage by spouses' marital status date back to the first years of the 19th century. It is only with the unity of Italy (1861) that the documentation became more continuous, allowing identification of the different remarriage patterns within the national borders [START_REF] Livi Bacci | On the frequency of remarriage in nineteenth century Italy: Methods and results[END_REF]. However, the descriptive and aggregative nature of such data did not allow any research on the determinants of remarriage. Even the nominative approach, at least the techniques based on family reconstitution, have only permitted partial analyses of remarriage, a situation that was due either to the small number of remarriages celebrated in a given parish or to intrinsic technical problems of measurement which restricted the sample size [START_REF] Henry | Techniques d'analyse en de´mographie historique[END_REF][START_REF] Knodel | Demographic behavior in the past. A study of fourteen German village populations in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries[END_REF][START_REF] Wrigley | English population history from family reconstitution[END_REF]. Notwithstanding these difficulties, some studies on small communities outlined some of the most important key points of remarriage, especially those concerning the bio-demographic characteristics of widowed people. They can be summarized as follows: (a) widowers were more likely to remarry than widows, usually shortly after wife's death, and to younger and never-married women; (b) widows over 40 years of age seldom remarried, especially if they had children; (c) the younger the widowed person, the higher the probability of finding a new spouse regardless of gender [START_REF] Blom | The history of widowhood: a bibliographic overview[END_REF]. 1This strong asymmetry by gender is linked not only with demographic constraints but also with economic, cultural and social factors concerning the different social role of men and women in past societies, especially in the inheritance system. 2 In Italy, for instance, despite significant regional differences, 3 under the dominant inheritance model property was handed down to and through men, excluding women from property ownership. Women's share was limited to the dowry. Upon marriage, women were never totally integrated into the agnatic lineage of their husbands but were, in Klapisch-Zuber's words, ''passing guests'' (Klapisch-Zuber 1985a). Nor did they inherit from their husbands. Consequently, a widow who chose to remarry could claim nothing but her dowry, and in some circumstances, widows could even lose their children and any rights (usufruct) on the husband's house if they chose to remarry [START_REF] Calvi | Diritti e legami. Madri, figli, stato in Toscana (XVI-XVIII secolo)[END_REF][START_REF] Calvi | Reconstructing the family: Widowhood and remarriage in Tuscany in the Early Modern Period[END_REF].

The importance of widow/widower's socio-economic status on the decision to remarry is still controversial, however. Some authors found a higher risk in the poorest strata of society [START_REF] Sogner | Introduction[END_REF], while an opposite pattern was detected in the Finnish countryside, where remarriage was more common among landowners than the landless [START_REF] Moring | Widowhood options and strategies in preindustrial northern Europe: socioeconomic differences in household position of the widowed in 18th and 19th century Finland[END_REF]. In particular, the availability of land would seem to increase the likelihood of widows' remarriage. In the Austrian countryside, a second marriage was actually more frequent among the most well-off than among the poorest widows: the presence of a man was, in fact, crucial to manage and till the land [START_REF] Brown | Becoming widowed: rural widows in lower Austria, 1788-1848[END_REF]. Similar results were found in 18th century Massachusetts [START_REF] Keyssar | Widowhood in eighteenth century Massachusetts: A problem in the history of the family[END_REF] and in pre-industrial France, where remarrying was an option almost exclusively reserved for wealthy widows [START_REF] Fauve-Chamoux | Widows and their living arrangements in preindustrial France[END_REF]. Conversely, other studies did not find any striking socio-occupational differential in the chances of remarriage [START_REF] Knodel | The decline of remarriage: Evidence from German village populations in the eighteenth century[END_REF][START_REF] Knodel | Demographic behavior in the past. A study of fourteen German village populations in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries[END_REF][START_REF] Van Poppel | Widows, widowers and remarriage in nineteenth century Netherlands[END_REF][START_REF] Mcquillan | Family composition and remarriage in Alsace, 1750-1850[END_REF]. The absence of occupational differentials in the frequency of remarriage does not, however, imply that the process of remarriage proceeded similarly in the different social groups. The influence of economic factors on remarriage is difficult to determine, for women in particular [START_REF] Elman | Sociohistorical and demographic perspectives on US remarriage in 1910[END_REF]. The availability of economic resources can, in fact, act as either a deterrent or an incentive. It could make it easier to attract a new partner or, conversely, it could make remarriage less necessary as wealthy widowed persons were able to hire paid help in the home and on the farm.

Regarding the decision to remarry, widows and widowers were in any case subject to strong pressure from within and outside the household, especially in those Catholic countries where the Church and common moral principles often discouraged second unions, especially for widows with children. 4''This, anyway, is the theory'' as Kertzer and Karweit (1995, p. 230) have observed in their study on widowhood in Casalecchio di Reno between 1861 and 1921, the most important study on widowhood for an Italian community based on individual-level data. Kertzer and Karweit concur with Livi Bacci in his reconstruction of the regional geography of remarriage rates in Italy at the beginning of demographic transition. Massimo Livi Bacci's study of remarriage in the 1880s (1981) found much higher rates in the South than in the Centre-North of Italy. Both authors stressed the same point, arguing that ''It is tempting to correlate the very low proportions of women who remarry in some rural regions of central Italy with the more structured family system typical of the sharecropping system of agriculture. The extended family provided the help needed by the widow, thus lessening the need for a second marriage'' (Livi Bacci 1981, pp. 358-359). Living in simple rather than in multiple households could indeed be a key factor influencing the likelihood of remarriage. In a simple nuclear family, the loss of the spouse could have dramatic consequences on the surviving partner who found him/herself alone in taking care of children. On the other hand, widowed persons living in multiple households could count on the other household members for help and support, and this reduced the risk of a fall in their standard of living. This latter situation could then reduce the importance and urgency of finding a new spouse [START_REF] Tittarelli | Choosing a spouse among nineteenth-century central Italian sharecroppers[END_REF]. Nevertheless, this interpretation is still waiting to be definitely proved and other factors might be at play in the decision to remarry. 5 Many Italian communities were characterized by very different permanent celibacy rates, and this fact had obvious consequences on the size of marriage and remarriage markets. As already pointed out by other scholars [START_REF] Van Poppel | Widows, widowers and remarriage in nineteenth century Netherlands[END_REF][START_REF] Matthijs | Frequency, timing and intensity of remarriage in 19th century Flanders[END_REF], this factor might strongly affect the chances of remarriage. For instance, [START_REF] Keyssar | Widowhood in eighteenth century Massachusetts: A problem in the history of the family[END_REF] found that widows married quite frequently in 18th century colonial Massachusetts, a society characterized by a low celibacy rate for females. Moreover, not only the market size but also its characteristics might influence the intensity of remarriage. Nuptiality regimes characterized by early access to first marriage often produce young widow(er)s who, especially if females and without children, are more able to compete with never-married people in the same marriage market [START_REF] Bideau | A demographic and social analysis of widowhood and remarriage: The example of the castellany of Thoissey-en-Dombes, 1670-1840[END_REF]. Conversely, late age at first marriage yields old widowed persons, who represent less desirable partners [START_REF] Fauve-Chamoux | Widows and their living arrangements in preindustrial France[END_REF]. Since the literature data have proved the existence of sharecropping communities with different levels of celibacy and timing of access to marriage [START_REF] Barbagli | Sistemi di formazione della famiglia[END_REF][START_REF] Breschi | Le Italie demografiche. Saggi di demografia storica[END_REF][START_REF] Rettaroli | Maritu a chi troa, moglie a chi tocca''. Nuzialita `e famiglia nell'Italia mezzadrile del primo Ottocento[END_REF], we also expect to find differentials in remarriage among sharecropping populations. To be proved, these hypotheses require individual-level information to guarantee the necessary indepth insight, but these data are seldom available for Italian populations of the past. Thus, the role of those factors remains largely unexplored for Italy, especially if considered in a dynamic and longitudinal perspective. In a previous paper on remarriage in a pre-transitional Tuscan community, Casalguidi, we used such longitudinal data to demonstrate the role of household compositional elements as pivotal determinants of remarriage, although with differential impacts by gender [START_REF] Breschi | Remarriage in a pre-transitional Italian community[END_REF]). However, in a society such as pre-transitional Italy with such extreme variety in forms of co-residence, socio-economic and demographic factors and in legislative norms, the analysis of a single community, even when highly detailed, may prove too specific and limited in its explanatory power. For these reasons, in the present paper we have decided to take a step further by broadening our analysis of remarriage to other populations of pre-transitional Italy to compare the determinants of remarriage in different social, political and economic contexts. We will contrast the remarriage patterns of three different communities, the already studied Tuscan sharecropping population of Casalguidi (1819-1859), the Emilian rural parish of Madregolo (1761Madregolo ( -1883)), and the Alpine village of Treppo Carnico (1835-1867). While the latter represents a typical mountain population with a lowpressure demographic regime and a peculiar household structure typology, Madregolo is another sharecropping village whose nuptiality pattern, household characteristics and economic structure are very different from those of Casalguidi. We think that the characteristics of these three populations will give us the opportunity to test some of the hypotheses raised above, in particular to what extent household composition as well as social and cultural norms associated with marriage can shape remarriage patterns towards a process of differentiation.

2 The Communities: Casalguidi, 1819-1859, Madregolo, 1761-1883, and Treppo Carnico, 1835-1867 Casalguidi is a small town (2,400 residents on average) belonging to the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, situated only few kilometres from the cities of Pistoia and Florence, while Madregolo is a small parish in the territory of the Duchy of Parma with a mean population size of about 600 inhabitants per year. The territory of Casalguidi is not completely flat, and a part of the population is scattered on the hills surrounding the main village, while the parish of Madregolo is on a plain close to the Taro River.

From a demographic point of view, the two communities present quite similar levels of mortality and fertility, clearly indicating a pre-transitional demographic regime. Life expectancy at birth was around 34-36 years, and the total fertility rate between 5.2 and 5.3 children per woman (Table 1). However, Madregolo differed from Casalguidi in some respects, notably in terms of nuptiality patterns and intensity of migration. In Casalguidi, men married at 28-29 years and women at 25, with permanent celibacy rates of, respectively, 15.1% and 10.1% (Table 1). On the other hand, in Madregolo, people married earlier, about 2 years earlier on average, and presented much lower rates of permanent celibacy, in particular among females, with only 1.6% of women still unmarried at 50. The form of living arrangement after marriage varied according to the husband's occupation. In both communities, sharecroppers usually followed a patrilocal pattern6 due to the crucial role of the male workforce in sharecropping households, while day labourers and artisans were much more likely to form new families after marriage, independent from their parents' households [START_REF] Barbagli | Sotto lo stesso tetto. Mutamenti della famiglia in Italia dal XV al XX secolo[END_REF].

The household structure (Table 1) is characterized by the strong presence of complex 7 households typical of sharecropping societies, accounting for over one-third of total domestic aggregates, and representing 57.1% and 48.2% of total population, respectively, in Madregolo and Casalguidi. Given the strict link between household size and farm size that characterized sharecropping societies, the larger and more complex households living in Madregolo indicate the existence of larger farms than in Casalguidi. This is further confirmed by a more frequent presence of multiple households (27.4% and 13.5% respectively), particularly those with 3? coresident couples (52.3% and 4.4% of total multiple households).

The socio-occupational profile of the two populations reflects their agricultural vocation. Despite a similar proportion employed in agriculture, around 70-75% of total household heads, the occupational structure of the Tuscan community was more stratified. One of the reasons was the different structure of land tenure caused by the diverse geographical and morphological characteristics of the two locations. In Madregolo, land ownership was less dispersed, and large farms were run primarily by sharecroppers hired by landowners or, more likely, by tenants on behalf of absent landowners. Thus, a very large proportion of the agricultural sector of Madregolo was made up of landless people, namely sharecroppers and poor farm labourers. This specific and almost exclusive form of land tenure explains the very high levels of mobility of this community, far higher than those assessed for Casalguidi. On an annual basis, the turnover was in fact about 300 per thousand on average between 1800 and 1883 [START_REF] Breschi | Individual and family mobility. First results from an analysis on two Italian rural villages[END_REF]. In Casalguidi, the farm size was not that large, especially in the hilly areas. In this part of the territory, the existence of smallholders who cultivated their own land contrasted with the larger presence of sharecroppers and farm labourers living in the plain. In addition, artisans and shopkeepers lived in the main village of the parish along with nobles and a tiny bourgeoisie, even though this latter category represented only a minority The values of e 0 and TFR for Madregolo refer to the period 1800-1883 [START_REF] Breschi | Mortality and environment in three Emilian, Tuscan, and Venetian communities[END_REF]). Finally, while some forms of proto-industry were already operative in Casalguidi, in Madregolo not only was there nothing of that sort, but agricultural techniques were also more archaic than they were in the Tuscan community. Consequently, in Madregolo agricultural produce was limited to a rotation of corn and wheat [START_REF] Spaggiari | L'agricoltura negli stati parmensi dal 1750 al 1859[END_REF], while in Casalguidi grapes and olives were cultivated together with grain and other cereals [START_REF] Breschi | Popolazione e territorio nel pistoiese sotto i Lorena[END_REF]. In Casalguidi, the economic status of each household can also be assessed thanks to the availability of information relative to the Family Tax. In a context of general poverty-87% of total households living in Casalguidi in the period 1819-1859 were either exempt from tax for manifest indigence or required to pay a very small amount of money-about 97% of the 2,470 households headed by widows were poor, clear evidence of the marginal role of widows in this community when they remained alone. Women had no direct access to sharecropping contracts (only men could be in charge), and it was practically impossible for them to be hired for farm labour. Employment as a servant was almost the sole opportunity available to them in this rural society.

Treppo Carnico is a village of about 1,100 inhabitants and 230 households on yearly average. It is located in Carnia, a mountainous region of northeastern Italy that in the period studied was part of the Austrian Empire. The local economy was based on the regular seasonal emigration of adult men. In the mid-19th century, the activities associated with these emigration flows were in a phase of profound change. Until the middle of the 18th century, emigrants were mainly pedlars and artisans, but in the second half of the 19th century masons progressively replaced those categories. In the period of transition between the two professional patterns, i.e. the period studied here, farm activities gained a more important role in the seasonal emigration of men although they still had a minor role in the local economic system [START_REF] Fornasin | Emigrazioni e mestieri in Carnia: la cesura del XIX secolo[END_REF].

From a demographic point of view, Treppo Carnico displayed lower levels of both mortality and fertility. Life expectancy at birth was 39 years, and the TFR was 4.8 children per woman [START_REF] Breschi | Il sistema demografico alpino[END_REF]. Carnia was therefore characterized by a low-pressure demographic regime, whose preventive checks were a very high age at first marriage (31.4 years for men, 28.7 for women) and remarkably high levels of permanent celibacy (14.4% for men, 16.7% for women). Like other mountain populations, residence after marriage was patrilocal or, secondarily, neolocal. As for the household structure, robust data are available only for those years in which the three distinct population registers were set up, namely 1834, 1851 and 1867: 59.4% of total households were simple households, while 30.5% were complex households representing 39.6% of the overall population.

Regarding socio-economic status, our sources do not supply any information on Family Tax. However, the Austrian Cadastre of 1851 provides data on land ownership for the population of Treppo Carnico that can be taken as a proxy of the socio-economic status of households. It is noteworthy that in Carnia collective land tenure still had a strong economic relevance. In Treppo Carnico, the cadastre revenue for public goods was higher than the corresponding revenue for private owners. We think this is a crucial element for a correct understanding of wealth distribution within the community. In fact, every family descending from the original ones, also the least well-off, had revenues at their own disposal. The large scale collective land ownership operated as a mechanism of wealth redistribution, capable of substantially reducing the economic inequalities within the local population. The cadastre does not only record information concerning land ownership but also data relative to houses. Taking into account data on houses, the evidence of an egalitarian distribution of property is even more striking. At the end of 1851, 229 out of 236 households lived in their own houses. The total number of variously defined habitations was 298, higher than the number of resident households. The resulting picture is a community where house ownership was practically universal. The three populations could not be more far apart, at a least from a socio-economic point of view.

The comparison of those populations is therefore quite interesting because the three communities not only belonged to different political administrations, but they were also characterized by different socio-economic structures, geographical contexts and, more importantly, different nuptiality patterns.

Sources

The data used in this paper come mainly from two different types of documents: local population registers and parish registers. Our sources for sharecropping communities are annual nominative lists of households and inhabitants, called Status Animarum, supplemented by parish registers of vital events. The Status Animarum was a kind of annual census recorded by the parish priest at Easter, with nominative data organized by household. Age, sex, marital status and relationship to the household head were recorded for each person. The annual recording of Status Animarum makes it possible to trace changes in household size and composition throughout the period studied. Vital events (registers of baptism, burial, and marriage) were linked to Status Animarum by means of nominative techniques. 8 The marriage registers include all the weddings celebrated in the churches of Madregolo and Casalguidi, i.e. all endogamous marriages and exogamous unions between local women and foreign men. Marriages between local men and non-local women were conversely always celebrated in the bride's parish, leaving no trace in the registers of the groom's parish.9 However, the nominative linkage of individual information from both vital records and census sources made it possible to reconstruct the life-histories of each resident (as long as he/she remained in the community), including those marriages between local men and foreign women not recorded in the marriage registers of the local parish. By checking all the men who changed their marital status from unmarried (or widowed) to married between two consecutive Status Animarum it was in fact possible to retrieve information such as the year of marriage, name, surname and age of the spouse for those missing 8 The linkage technique is described in [START_REF] Manfredini | L'utilizzo degli Status Animarum nelle ricostruzioni nominative: miglioramenti informativi qualitativi e quantitativi. Il caso di Madregolo (1629-1914[END_REF] marriages. Identification of the groom's marital status the year before marriage allowed us to determine whether this was his first or second marriage.

Parish registers do not usually provide information on socio-economic status. The Status Animarum of Casalguidi is a rare exception since they always report the name of the house owner. Crucial data to assess the economic status of households come from the Family Tax Register, whose nominative information on household heads was linked to Status Animarum.

For the Alpine village of Treppo Carnico, we use two population registers. The first was started in 1834 and kept updated until 1850; the second register, which replaced the first one, started in 1851 and continued until the end of 1868, about 2 years after Friuli came under the control of the Kingdom of Italy. The population register contains information on all the members of households in Treppo Carnico, specifying name and family name of each household member along with dates of vital events: birth, death, marriage(s) and movements into and/or outside the household. Nominative data recorded in the population register were supplemented with information taken from parish registers, which served mostly to correct underreporting of newborn deaths.

We can thus trace the life history of each individual either directly by consulting the population register (Treppo Carnico) or indirectly by linking the Status Animarum to parish vital registers (Casalguidi and Madregolo). By placing demographic events in the household context where they occurred, we can go well beyond classic family reconstitution techniques to explore the relationship between family organization and individual life-histories. This in turn opens new prospects for understanding demographic phenomena before the era of modern statistics in Italy. While the usefulness of civil population registers for the study of post-Unification Italy has been recognized for some time [START_REF] Schiaffino | Fecondita`e vita coniugale a Bologna nell'ultimo secolo: analisi longitudinale delle discendenze del ciclo di vita coniugale[END_REF][START_REF] Kertzer | Family, political economy, and demographic change: The transformation of life in Casalecchio, Italy[END_REF], our analysis of ecclesiastical sources is the first to our knowledge.10 4 Remarriage in the Three Communities Remarriage is usually approached by analysing the distribution of marriages by marital status (Table 2). This is a relatively easy task also for the 16th-18th centuries using usual sources such as marriage parish registers.11 Casalguidi is the community with the highest proportion of remarriage, (23.1%), a proportion that closely mirrors that calculated for the whole of Tuscany [START_REF] Breschi | La popolazione della Toscana dal 1640 al 1940. Un'ipotesi di ricostruzione[END_REF]) in the period 1853-1860 (20.6%). Madregolo, despite its common sharecropping tradition, shows a lower figure, 15.1%, much more similar to that of the mountain population of Treppo Carnico (14.7%). In terms of differential access to remarriage by gender, the gap between men and women is striking, with the exception of Madregolo. In Casalguidi, about 20 men out of 100 were widowed at the moment of marriage, figures that are 2-3 times higher than the corresponding proportion of women (only 6.7 out of 100). In Treppo Carnico, despite overall lower levels of remarriage, the gender differential is even larger due to a very limited access to remarriage of widows (only 2.2 out of 100). Finally, in Madregolo the gap shrinks considerably, with 11.2% of men widowed at marriage against a figure of 8.1% among women.

Nevertheless, the proportion of remarriages is not an accurate measure of remarriage intensity as it is also a function of first-marriage intensity and mortality level. Moreover, the weight of missing information on marital status of spouses not belonging to the population under study, such as the case of 125 exogamous marriages celebrated in Madregolo between a local women and a foreign man, may sometimes bias the estimation. The use of such a simplified indicator is justified only by the difficulty of measuring correctly the population at risk of entering a second union, namely widowed people [START_REF] Matthijs | Frequency, timing and intensity of remarriage in 19th century Flanders[END_REF]. Although such information is rarely available for historic populations, in this study the reconstruction of individual life-histories allowed more precise evaluations and measures of remarriage.

We are therefore able to look in detail first at widowhood and then at intensity and timing of remarriage in each community. This operation entails assessing the people who change from married to widowed status and the annual population by sex, age, and marital status. Table 3 shows age at widowhood for the three communities in the respective study periods.

The first age class obviously reflects the different timing of access to marriage (see Table 1). Late age at first marriage in Treppo Carnico entailed a lower number of union disruptions before age 35. Nevertheless, in all the villages nearly 50% of men who lost their wives became widowers before age 50, a consequence of the higher female risk of death associated with frequent childbirths. At the end of the reproductive period, the proportion of widows is lower than that of widowers, but higher in the sharecropping villages (44.6% and 43.9%, respectively, in Casalguidi and Madregolo) than in the Alpine one (31.8%). Once this risky phase of life was over, union disruptions due to husband's death became more frequent, 55.4% in Casalguidi, 56.1% in Madregolo, and 68.1% in Treppo Carnico.

Much more marked is the difference between populations in terms of mean age at widowhood. The Alpine dwellers lost their spouse 4-5 years later on average than peasants of the plain, at around 55 age years for the former, and age 50 for the latter. This differential is easily explainable in terms of the later age at first marriage of the mountain population. Moreover, the differential between populations tends to broaden due to a lower intensity of mortality in the Alpine population. This partly accounts for the small proportion of widowed people before age 35 years in Treppo Carnico, about 0.5% for both men and women (Table 4). Widow(er)s, on the other hand, represent 1-2% of the ever-married population. This latter calculation partially eliminates the effects of the marital status structure of the population produced by the differential access and intensity of marriage in the two communities. The presence of widow(er)s tends to increase with age as well as the gender differential (Table 4). In all the populations studied, about 24-29% of women are widowed in the 50-64 age group. Widowers are less numerous, 1 out of 10 in Casalguidi and 1 out of 7 in Treppo Carnico and Madregolo. Over age 65, in Casalguidi about two-thirds (65.6%) of all women are widowed against an incidence of only one-fourth (25.4%) among men. In Treppo Carnico and Madregolo, this gender asymmetry is less marked: widows amount to 55-58% of all women aged 65? and widowers 37%. Overall, widows represent about 10-13% of total population while widowers amount to only 5-8%. The figures of Table 4 are the result of many forces. Limiting the description to demographic factors only, it illustrates the different marriage models, the age difference between spouses, the different impact of mortality by gender and age and, finally, the differential access to remarriage of widows and widowers in the communities.12 This latter point is analysed in Table 5. It describes the propensity to remarriage by means of age-specific rates in the populations studied, for men and women separately. The gender differential results are even more striking in relation to the process of formation of a new family, with males showing a far higher propensity to remarry throughout the life course and especially at older ages. This gender disparity is noticeable especially in the mountain village of Treppo Carnico. Even though the remarriage rate of widowers is not especially high (49.1 per thousand), the very low propensity of widows to remarry (5.4 per thousand) yields a large differential between genders. In the sharecropping communities, the gap does not ever reach that extent, although the chances for widows of finding a new spouse are almost zero in every population once the reproductive period is over. Table 5 suggests another important consideration. In terms of total remarriage rate, the figures seem to support the hypothesis of a close link, at least for females, between celibacy and age at marriage, on the one hand, and remarriage level, on the other hand. In fact, the higher the celibacy rate and the mean age at first marriage, the lower the remarriage rate. The population with the lowest overall level of remarriage among widows (5.4 per thousand) is also the one with the highest proportion of female celibacy (16.7%), whereas Madregolo, which has the highest rate of remarriage (22.4 per thousand), presents the lowest level of female celibacy (only 1.6%) and the earliest access to first marriage of women (23.9 years).

Obviously, the likelihood of remarriage is affected and shaped by many sociodemographic factors besides age, intimately associated in a complex mechanism of interrelationship whose study definitely calls for a micro-analytic approach.

Remarrying in a Micro-Analytical Perspective

As previously mentioned, there is no doubt that descriptive analyses provide only limited insight into remarriage patterns. Instead, the best way to analyse the determinants of nuptiality is to investigate the process in a dynamic perspective. The decision or opportunity to remarry was a consequence not only of many interacting demographic factors, but also of other (sometimes) more relevant elements, such as household co-residential patterns, previous marriage and fertility history, socioeconomic status. Furthermore, the complexity of the explanatory framework that determines the choice of a spouse makes descriptive statistics ill-adapted to illuminating the multidisciplinary nature of such an issue. For all these reasons, we used individual-level data. A discrete-time logistic regression was used and two separate models for widows and widowers were estimated because of the marked differentiation by gender. The aim is to look for household-level determinants able to explain some of the differences between the three communities, after controlling for some demographic variables, namely age and duration of widowhood. Our first purpose will be to investigate, by means of a time-varying covariate, the role of children from previous marriage(s) on the likelihood of remarriage. 13 Children have often been regarded as an obstacle to remarriage, especially for widows. Marrying a widow with children may in fact become economically disadvantageous for peasant families given their limited contribution to agricultural labour. Conversely, widowers co-residing with children could be stimulated in the search for a new bride by the necessity to provide them with more care and attention [START_REF] Bideau | Remariage et fe ´condite ´. Contribution a `l'e ´tude des me ´canismes de re ´cuperation des populations anciennes[END_REF]. In a recent paper, we found evidence for Casalguidi that such an issue was relevant only in the case of dependent children (\12 years), in other words young people not yet able to work but simply in need of close care and attention [START_REF] Breschi | Remarriage in a pre-transitional Italian community[END_REF].

Table 6 shows relative risks and p-values of the variables included in the basic model focusing on the influence of demographic variables and presence of children. Despite its relative simplicity, it allows us to highlight important differences between Treppo Carnico, on the one hand, and the two sharecropping communities, on the other hand. Moreover, different patterns by gender characterize each population. For widows, the extremely limited propensity to remarry identified at the descriptive level in the Alpine community manifests itself in the low responsiveness of remarriage risk to each of the variables estimated apart from the presence of children from previous marriage(s). Although we are fully aware of the much reduced number of events in this model, a factor that may limit the validity of parameter estimates, the finding is perfectly consistent with the results relative to the other communities and it clearly proves the wide-ranging negative impact on remarriage played by the presence of children of whatever age. On the contrary, the effects on widowers are much more diversified between the three communities. In Treppo Carnico, widowers are positively conditioned, although the coefficients are non-statistically significant, by the presence of children of whatever age, while in the rural villages of the plain the association is always negative. In particular, in Madregolo the response is significant for the presence of children of whatever age, while in Casalguidi this is the case only for co-residence with children aged 12?. The patterns of Casalguidi and Madregolo also overlap perfectly as far as demographic variables are concerned. As expected, the remarriage risk of widows is more sensitive to the biological reproductive capacity, in the sense that the risk of remarrying falls significantly as age increases. Widowers are conversely more responsive to the duration of widowhood, with the likelihood of remarriage decreasing significantly by 55-65% after only 3-5 years following the wife's death and being nearly zero after 6 ? years. 14The effects on remarriage caused by the interrelationship between co-residence of children could also be shaped by the structure of the household in which the widow(er) lived. Following Livi Bacci's and Matthjis's thesis, widowed people living with children in large and multiple households may in fact be under less pressure to find a new partner than widow(er)s living in other household contexts. Large and complex households could in fact provide mutual help and support to their members in case of necessity, thereby lessening the need for remarriage. Nevertheless, this was true only for blood relatives. Women living in the parents-in-law's house (given the patrilocal pattern of living arrangements after marriage, this was the most common situation) were in a subordinate position within the husband's family group, and their position could weaken further after the husband's death. Parents-in-law and/or siblings-in-law could discourage the widow from remarrying, since in such a case they would have been obliged to return her dowry. On the other hand, widowed people received only limited support in nuclear households, and this situation could encourage the widow or widower, especially the former, to look for a new partner. It would therefore be interesting to check which force prevailed: widows' need for security and economic support that drove them to find a new partner, or the social stigma and economic problems that remarrying a widow, especially with children, might pose for potential husbands. This issue could be of some concern especially when contrasting the two sharecropping communities. Could the smaller, less complex and less structured households existing in Casalguidi be somehow less able to guarantee protection and support to widow(er)s than the larger and more complex households living in Madregolo? Could a smaller network of co-residing relatives be less persuasive in discouraging widows from remarrying? As for Treppo Carnico, the small number of remarriages would unfortunately produce unstable and non-robust estimates in case of any further and more refined specifications of household-level variables.

Operatively, rather than specifying various covariates capturing the effects associated with different co-residents such as parents, parents-in-law, brothers, and sisters, we decided to use a single variable combining the effects on remarriage of the presence of co-residing children, their age (below or over 12 years) and household structure (Table 7).

In this respect, we found interesting differences by gender between and within populations. As for widowers living in Madregolo, a significant and consistent reduction of the risk (between 60 and 70% lower compared to the reference category) was found in the case of co-residence with children in complex households, regardless of age. The model depicts a somewhat different situation in Casalguidi, where the discriminant factor is the presence of children already able to work (12? years) rather than the household structure. Their presence entails a 63% significant decrease of remarriage risk if the widower co-resided with children in a nuclear household, 73% if living in a complex one. In Casalguidi, the urgency of remarriage ceased only when there was no need to provide parental assistance and support to young children, while it was strongly present in all the other cases, even when the widower lived in a complex household. In our opinion, the low degree of complexity of multiple and extended households existing in the Tuscan parish made it harder to find help and assistance even within the domestic aggregate. This was not the case of Madregolo, where the larger presence of multiple households coupled with a mean larger size made it easier to remedy the death of one of the spouses, operating as deterrent to widower's remarriage. In other words, the results support the hypothesis that the smaller and less complex households living in the territory of Casalguidi were somehow less able to guarantee care and protection to young mothers with fatherless children.

For widows, the results shed some light on the questions we have posed above. In the household and economic system of Casalguidi, the greatest deterrent to remarriage was the problem, mainly of economic nature, that marrying a widow with children could pose to the husband's family. The risk of remarriage of widows with children, either young or older, was in fact far lower compared to the reference category whatever the household structure she was living in. At the end, it was very unlikely for a widow to find a new husband willing to assume such a heavy family burden. In Madregolo, the situation presents some specific features. Having children does not yield now any differential risk of remarriage when compared to widows living in complex households without children. What becomes crucial, on the other hand, is the absence of any family network imposing constraints and limitations on individual choice. For widows living alone or in nuclear households without children, namely living with parent(s), risks of remarriage are five to seven times higher than for the reference category. This finding seems to support Matthijs's and Bideau's idea that the more widows were similar to never-married women the more likely they were to remarry, as if ''remarriage was a type of second first marriage'' (Matthijs 2003, p. 141). In any case, however, these results confirm the different and subordinate social positions of women in the Italian sharecropping societies of the 18th and 19th centuries.

Discussion and Concluding Remarks

By reconstructing the life-histories of the inhabitants of three communities of pretransitional Italy, we were able to make an in-depth investigation of remarriage, an event usually on the fringe of historical demography. The results shed light on some intimate demographic, social and economic mechanisms that led some widowed persons to find a new partner and others to remain excluded from second unions. In addition, we had the opportunity to compare the remarriage patterns of populations that differed in terms of geographic location, political administration, demographic regime, and family formation system. Those patterns showed similarities and profound differences, elements that can be taken into account to explain dissimilar dispositions to remarriage by gender and population. The importance of demographic variables has been well documented in all the three populations, with gender and age determining marked differentials in the propensity to remarry. Age, in particular, is a determining factor for widows. Female remarriage rates drop so greatly after 34 years of age that age at first marriage plays a very different role in Madregolo and Treppo Carnico. Moreover, Madregolo and Casalguidi, despite their common agricultural vocation based on sharecropping, do present differentials in remarriage intensity that can again be associated with differentials in access to first marriage, especially on the female side. The early access to first marriage in the Emilian village, coupled with an inadequate supply of marriageable women as a consequence of very low female celibacy rates, made widows living in Madregolo more able to compete with nevermarried women. If these widows had no children from a previous marriage, they were definitely no different from never-married women in the eyes of unmarried men. Nevertheless, these demographic factors conditioning remarriage appear somehow inadequate to explain differentials and specificities of various remarriage patterns, such as the very low propensity to remarry of the widows living in Treppo Carnico. Other factors must then be taken into account. First, the social stigma attached to remarried widows, which was also revealed through economic and legal aspects, such as those concerning the inheritance and dotal system. In general, there were no marked differences between the populations. The land was handed down from father to sons along the male line, and in the event of a husband's death, the surviving wife was normally excluded from succession. However, the Austrian law had more consideration for widows, protecting them with specific norms relative to inheritance and dotal systems. 15 This economic ''protection'' of widows did not exist at all in the two sharecropping communities (Scardozzi 1998, p. 97). Legal constraints on succession conditioned marriage customs because they had consequences on the distribution of wealth. In the sharecropping villages, economic inequality was stronger than it was in Treppo Carnico, where almost each family, widows included, owned plots of land, although small and at least a house. This was a common situation in many mountain communities [START_REF] Fornasin | La proprieta `della terra, i percettori dei prodotti e della rendita[END_REF], but in Carnia the Law even favoured it. Since evidence of an inverse relationship between wealth and propensity to remarriage was found for Casalguidi [START_REF] Breschi | Until death do us apart'' and even longer: demographic and social disapproval of remarriage in 19th century Italy[END_REF], one may assume that widespread land ownership, coupled with better economic conditions and legal protection for widows, could act as a preventive check on remarriage. On the contrary, in the rural populations of Casalguidi and Madregolo, widows were in a weaker position and economic necessity became the strongest incentive to remarriage for them. Hence, what most shaped and conditioned the likelihood of finding a new spouse in these sharecropping communities were human resources, here regarded as the potential to provide economic and emotional support to the weakest members. Nevertheless, things are not as simple as they might appear. The results for the two sharecropping populations seem to suggest that differences in household complexity and size between Casalguidi and Madregolo played a role in determining differential access to remarriage. The larger size and higher level of complexity of the domestic groups living in the Emilian parish represented the key element in the decision not to remarry. Those households had sufficient domestic human resources to provide widowers' children with care and protection as well as enough economic and social power to dissuade widows from remarrying. In this situation, widows were likely to remarry only when they lived alone or with their parent(s). In Casalguidi, on the other hand, the smaller size and lesser complexity of the households made the need to balance household size with the necessities of farm labour a much more relevant criterion in the decision to remarry. In this respect, number and age of children from previous marriages became a decisive factor. Widows had very little chance to find a new partner if they had one or more children, while widowers avoided remarrying when children were in less need of care and protection.

At the end, different demographic regimes, different inheritance and dotal systems as well as differences in household structure and size combined in ways that produced major differences in the likelihood of remarriage even in communities characterized by similar economic structures and forms of land tenure.

Table 1

 1 Selected demographic indicators for the three communities

		Madregolo (1761-1883)	Casalguidi (1819-1859)	Treppo Carnico (1835-1867)
		Male		Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
	SMAM	26.8		23.9	28.7		25.6	31.4	28.7
	Celibacy	9.0		1.6	15.1		10.1	14.4	16.7
	e 0	36.6		34.7	36.6		33.9	39.5	38.9
	TFR			5.3			5.2		4.8
		HH type Pop.	MHS HH type Pop.	MHS HH type Pop.	MHS
	Nuclear		54.4	38.7 4.1	58.1	49.6 4.4	59.4	56.9 4.7
	Complex		35.6	57.1 9.0	35.2	48.2 7.1	30.5	39.6 6.4
	Solitaries		3.7	0.6 1.0	4.5	0.9 1.0	6.3	1.3 1.0
	No structure		6.3	3.6 3.3	2.2	1.3 3.1	3.8	2.2 3.0
	Total	100.0	100.0		100.0	100.0		100.0	100.0
	Annual mean	94	547	5.8	464	2,402 5.2	230	1,122 4.9

Note: SMAM is the singulate mean age at marriage; celibacy is defined as the proportion never-married at age 50; e 0 denotes life expectancy at birth; TFR is the total fertility rate; MHS is the mean household size.

Table 2

 2 Proportion of remarriages in the three communities

		Madregolo (1761-1883) Casalguidi (1819-1859) Treppo Carnico (1835-1867)
		n	%	n	%	n	%
	Widower/XXXX	83	11.2	205	20.1	42	13.2
	XXXX/Widow	60	8.1	68	6.7	7	2.2
	Total with widow(er) 113	15.2	235	23.1	47	14.7
	Total	741	100.0	1019	100.0	319	100.0
	Note: marriage acts not reporting information on marital status of both spouses were excluded

Table 3

 3 Age at widowhood by sex in the three communities

		Madregolo (1761-1883) Casalguidi (1819-1859) Treppo Carnico (1835-1867)
		M	F	M	F	M	F
	\35	19.9	11.8	18.7	14.6	10.2	9.1
	35-49	28.2	32.1	31.2	30.0	37.8	22.7
	50-64	28.7	40.1	30.5	37.1	29.6	38.6
	65?	23.2	16.0	19.6	18.3	22.4	29.5
	Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	MAW	50.6	50.8	49.7	50.8	53.1	55.6
	Proportion \50	48.1	43.9	49.9	44.6	48.0	31.8
	% age unknown	0.0	0.0	5.4	6.1	3.0	2.2
	N	146	193	290	309	101	90
	Note: MAW is the mean age at widowhood

Table 4

 4 Population widowed by age and sex (%) in the three communities

		Age	Madregolo (1761-1883) Casalguidi (1819-1859) Treppo Carnico (1835-1867)
			Tot.pop.	Ever-marr.	Tot.pop.	Ever-marr.	Tot.pop.	Ever-marr.
	Males	18-34	0.9	2.0	0.8	2.4	0.6	2.5
		35-49	3.8	4.3	2.9	3.6	4.8	6.2
		50-64 13.8	15.6	9.2	10.6	13.0	14.3
		65?	36.4	40.4	25.4	28.2	36.9	39.0
		Total	6.6	9.6	5.1	8.2	8.1	13.6
	Females 18-34	0.7	1.1	1.1	2.3	0.5	1.5
		35-49	9.1	9.5	8.8	10.0	8.1	10.2
		50-64 26.2	27.7	29.5	32.7	24.1	28.1
		65?	58.4	61.0	65.6	70.9	55.7	62.3
		Total 10.6	13.3	13.9	19.6	13.4	21.5

Table 5

 5 Remarriage rates by sex and community (91,000 widowed people) in the three communities Note: Overall rate refers to age-bracket 25-74 due to the low numbers of widowed people \25

		Madregolo (1761-1883)	Casalguidi (1819-1859)	Treppo Carnico (1835-1867)
		M	F	M	F	M	F
	15-24	200.0	571.4	0.0	250.0	0.0	0.0
	25-34	246.6	224.1	319.6	164.2	102.6	125.0
	35-44	218.8	48.3	241.2	44.6	154.5	30.3
	45-54	57.3	15.0	126.6	7.2	78.6	0.0
	55-64	23.0	4.9	32.4	1.6	18.3	2.5
	65-74	8.6	4.3	8.9	2.7	4.1	0.0
	Overall	61.3	22.4	87.4	14.5	49.1	5.4

Table 6

 6 Basic risk model for the determinants of remarriage

	Covariates	Madregolo	Casalguidi		Treppo Carnico
		1800-1883	1819-1859	1835-1867
		M	F	M	F	M	F
		Odds	Odds	Odds	Odds	Odds	Odds
	Age (ref. \35 years)	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
	35-49 years	1.303	0.200	0.859	0.228	1.748	0.594
	50-74 years	0.140	0.012	0.225	0.011	0.192	0.031
	Duration of widowhood (ref. 0-2 years) 1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
	3-5 years	0.349	1.607	0.436	0.698	0.641	0.881
	6? years	0.068	0.481	0.165	0.371	0.912	3.495
	Duration unknown	0.141	0.518	0.409	0.445	0.348	0.305
	Co-resident children from previous	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
	marriage (ref. no children)
	At least one child \12 years	0.403	0.485	0.842	0.201	1.380	0.189
	co-resident
	Only children 12? years	0.402	0.316	0.295	0.219	1.344	0.112
	co-resident
	Log likelihood	-182.4 -129.0 -195.9 -195.9 -102.8 -32.5
	Person-years	988	1,806	1,300	3,605	761	1,363
	Events	72	35	119	55	33	6
	Widow(er)s 18-74 years
	Note: In bold coefficients statistically significant (p B 0.05)

Table 7

 7 Secondary risk model for the determinants of remarriage

	Covariates	Madregolo		Casalguidi
		1800-1883		1819-1859
		M	F	M	F
		Odds	Odds	Odds	Odds
	Age (ref. \35 years)	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
	35-49 years	1.208	0.143	1.149	0.281
	50-79 years	0.135	0.009	0.284	0.014
	Duration of widowhood (ref. 0-2 years)	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
	3-10 years	0.361	1.882	0.486	0.661
	11? years	0.074	0.507	0.190	0.342
	Duration unknown	0.139	0.667	0.468	0.437
	Household structure and presence of co-resident children
	from previous marriage (ref. Complex and no children)	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
	Nuclear and no children co-resident	1.219	5.465	2.543	1.525
	Nuclear and at least 1 child \12 years co-resident	0.549	1.473	1.588	0.135
	Nuclear and only children 12? years co-resident	0.448	1.943	0.373	0.324
	Complex and at least 1 child \12 years co-resident	0.270	0.918	0.629	0.429
	Complex and only children 12? years co-resident	0.392	-	0.265	0.163
	Solitary	0.755	6.832	0.580	1.613
	Undefined/without structure	0.394	0.853	0.377	-
	Log likelihood	-180.8	-121.3	-299.6	-191.6
	Person-years	988	1,204	1,300	3,571
	Events	72	35	119	55
	Widow(er)s 18-74 years
	Note: In bold coefficients statistically significant (p B 0.05)

In the second half of the

20th century, remarriage was conditioned almost everywhere by factors and behaviours quite similar to those observed in pre-industrial societies[START_REF] Chamie | Sex differences in remarriage and spouse selection[END_REF][START_REF] Smith | Remarriage patterns among recent widows and widowers[END_REF].2 For a review of the factors affecting remarriage, see Elman and London 2002. For a costs-benefits analysis of remarriage in pre-industrial populations, seeLundh 2002. 3 In some areas of southern Italy, the house was one of the elements of the dowry assigned to daughters[START_REF] Davis | Land and Family in Pisticci[END_REF][START_REF] Galt | Marital property in an Apulian own during the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries[END_REF].

Remarriage has often been subject to public disapproval (charivari), especially when the new union was considered not socially respectable, i.e. a large age gap between spouses(Le Goff and Schmitt 1981; Klapisch-Zuber 1985b;[START_REF] Corsini | Uomini saggi, femmine folli. Appunti per una teoria del matrimonio: il caso delle seconde nozze[END_REF] 1981).

[START_REF] Matthijs | Frequency, timing and intensity of remarriage in 19th century Flanders[END_REF] proposed a theoretical framework similar to Livi Bacci's interpretation of the lower propensity to remarriage of rural populations with respect to urban ones. In the 19th century Flemish countryside, households were larger and more complex than those living in the cities, and this fact reduced the pressure to remarry.

We use the term patrilocal, uxorilocal and neolocal to indicate the form of living arrangement after marriage. Patrilocal refers to couples living in the husband's parental household, uxorilocal to couples living in the wife's parental household, and finally neolocal refers to couples forming a new family independent from respective parental households.

In this paper, we have adopted a simplified Laslett's categorization of household structure involving the typologies of nuclear, complex, solitary and no-structure households. The first group refers to households formed by only one biological unit (parent(s)?children), the second one by households with only one biological unit plus some relatives (extended) and households with two or more biological units, the third one by individuals living alone, and the last one by those households without any biological unit (for instance, households formed by siblings only).

The acts supply information on the wedding date, name and surname of spouses and parents, as well as current spouses' place of residence. In Casalguidi, the marriage registers also provide information on the spouses' marital status at the moment of marriage, data that is absent, on the other hand, in the parish acts of Madregolo.

Although family reconstitution can incorporate census data, such information is not frequently used in family reconstitution studies for Italy. For details, see[START_REF] Manfredini | L'utilizzo degli Status Animarum nelle ricostruzioni nominative: miglioramenti informativi qualitativi e quantitativi. Il caso di Madregolo (1629-1914[END_REF].

This possibility depends on the quality of recordings. In Italy, marital status is also recorded in the most ancient parish registers, although in an indirect form (name and surname of the previous spouse). However, one should be cautious in the use of such information since it was more likely to be recorded for women than for men.

The influence of different marriage patterns and differential mortality selection by age and gender has been analysed in a paper presented at the 2007 PAA Annual Meeting(Breschi et al. 2007a).

This factor has been seldom investigated as a time-dependent variable, liable to change as a result of departures, emigration, and deaths of some or all the children.

The ''duration unknown'' category includes most of the long-time widow/widowers: it includes all those persons who were widowed from the beginning of observation and whose spouse's date of death is missing.

In this region, the wife could always dispose of all goods and properties that the husband had registered to her, and as a widow she could inherit from the oldest son. Normally, the will included a clause of widowhood in order to inherit, but in the territory of the Austrian Empire, this norm had value only if the widow had children(Pincherli 1901, p. 187). In theory, the widow and her heirs could also dispose of the dowry.


Jean F Schneider
email: jean.schneider@boku.ac.at

Seismically reactivated Hattian slide in Kashmir, Northern Pakistan

Keywords: Mass movements, Landslides, Seismic triggering, Kashmir earthquake, Landslide dam, Reservoir impounding

The Pakistan 2005 earthquake, of magnitude 7.6, caused severe damage on landscape and infrastructure, in addition to numerous casualties. The event reactivated Hattian Slide, creating a rock avalanche in a location where earlier mass movements had happened already, as indicated by satellite imagery and ground investigation. The slide originated on Dana Hill, in the upper catchment area of Hattian on Karli Stream, a tributary of Jhelum River, Pakistan, and buried the hamlet Dandbeh and several farms nearby. A natural dam accumulated, impounding two lakes, the larger one threatening parts of downstream Hattian Village with flooding. An access road and artificial spillways needed to be constructed in very short time to minimize the flooding risk. As shown by this example, when pointing out the risk of large-scale damage to population and infrastructure by way of hazard indication maps of seismically active regions, and preparing for alleviation of that risk, it is advisable to consider the complete Holocene history of the slopes involved.

Introduction

On October 8, 2005, a devastating earthquake of magnitude 7.6 occurred, with its epicentre at 34.467°N/ 73.577°E and a focal depth of 26 km (Fig. 1). In addition to approximately 80,000 fatalities (figures differ between authors, see e. g. Mona [START_REF] Lisa | Pakistan Earthquake: Preliminary observations and report of an international conference[END_REF], the event caused severe damage to infrastructure and to the landscape. The earthquake resulted from subduction of the Indian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate, and the fault plane solutions indicated that the earthquake was due to thrusting (Harvard 2005;USGS 2005;GSP 2005;[START_REF] Emsc | European-Mediterranean Seismological Center[END_REF]. A large number of aftershocks occurred along the Main Boundary Thrust Zone (MBT), striking NW-SE in the relevant section. Epicentres of the aftershocks clustered in the NW part of the continental convergent zone (Fig. 1).

The cities of Muzaffarabad, Balakot and Bagh, lying in the vicinity of the Jhelum thrust fault, were extensively damaged. The author observed the largest shaking intensities in the Khagan, Neelum and Jhelum Valleys, where thousands of landslides, rockslides, rock falls and debris flows were triggered, and rivers were dammed back by some of the larger mass movements (see also Nakata and Kumahara 2006;[START_REF] Dunning | The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th October 2005[END_REF]Sato et al. 2007). Roads slipped away or were obstructed by debris during the earthquake, and many bridges were destroyed or severely damaged (Schneider 2006a, b;[START_REF] Harp | Landslides triggered by the October 8, 2005, Pakistan Earthquake and associated Landslidedammed Reservoirs[END_REF]JSCE 2006). The mass movements originated from shattered and steep rock faces and in glacial or fluvial sediments and scree deposits. Substantial erosion associated with rivers of high discharge had resulted in the formation of many over- steepened and undercut slopes that were prone to failure (Owen et al. 2006;[START_REF] Aydan | Geological and seismological aspects of Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005 and a geotechnical evaluation of induced failures of natural and cut slopes[END_REF].

In many places the shattered rocks that remained in situ on the valley slopes are now in critical equilibrium, exhibiting little cohesion and low friction angles. Intense precipitation, and the consequent rise in pore water pressure, could lead to creeping or even to spontaneous failure of slopes. Several mass movements occurred in the aftermath of the earthquake, and it is likely that many more will follow, especially during the monsoon season, which occurs between July and September.

The Hattian landslide

In the Jhelum Valley South of Hattian, a large composite landslide was reactivated by the earthquake, forming a huge rock avalanche, called Hattian Slide (but also referred to as Chikar Slide, Dana Slide or Dandbeh Slide). It is an asymmetric wedge slide that originated on Dana Hill (34°09′ N/73°43′ E, altitude 2,080 m) and moved approximately eastwards, creating a natural dam on the valley bottom blocking the waterways of the Karli and Tung tributaries of the Jhelum River, and burying Dandbeh hamlet on the way (Figs. 2 and3). The reported death toll varies greatly (estimated to be a few hundred by the author and 1,000 by [START_REF] Dunning | The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th October 2005[END_REF]. Satellite images and ground checks show that several local farms were affected, but no true village is visible on the scenes taken before the event. The remaining farm houses most endangered by further mass movements have subsequently been evacuated. The debris dam (Fig. 4) created by the landslide has formed two lakes. The larger one, called Karli Lake, has resulted in a flooding hazard threatening parts of Hattian further downstream, due to a possible overflow with backward erosion or due to possible flood waves created by, in fact likely, mass movements into the growing lake.

The eastern flank of Dana Hill exhibits a morphology that suggests that it has suffered earlier large mass movements. The author suggests that at least space and time. The historically documented earthquake of 1555 was assigned to this gap and could be responsible for the younger of the above-mentioned Holocene landslides; but further seismological and geological investigations are necessary to verify this hypothesis. The actual landslide of 2005 (Figs. 3 and4) was triggered just north of the eastern extension of the activated Jhelum or Tanda thrust fault, which strikes NW-SE and separates the Kamlial Formation from the Murree Formation (Early Miocene). The latter is composed of red sandstone, siltstone and claystone, and it was in this formation that the present landslide occurred on Dana Hill (Figs. 5 and6).

The escarpments as well as the V-to U-shaped elongated sliding trough again have a tectonic origin, dominated by a NNE-plunging syncline with, in parts, tightly folded anticlines and other structural complications. Furthermore, both the top and the eastern side of Dana Hill are completely shattered, laterally spread and crisscrossed by cracks, slumps and slides, with the cracks striking mostly perpendicular to the synclines and anticlines, i.e. NNW-SSE (Fig. 7). At the south-facing escarpment of the slide, on the western crest of Dana Hill, there is still a large amount of destabilized rock material lying or hanging in critical condition, possibly allowing further rockslides (Fig. 8).

The landslide has an overall volume reaching probably 65 Mio m 3 . The affected area covers a total of 1.81 km 2 ; the debris dam spreads out across 0.89 km 2 . The maximum height difference amounts to 940 m, with the highest point at the crest being at 2038 m a.s.l. The composite rock avalanche occurred in three surges within half a minute (according to eyewitnesses), ran up on the other side of the valley and overrode the crest separating Karli from Tung Valley to reach the lowest point of its course just north of the former confluence of Tung and Karli Streams. To assign an average thickness to the complex slide would overtly simplify the sliding mechanism; in fact, it is not clear how much of the The settled slide mass can be divided in three distinct lobes. A saddle forming the possible natural overflow in situated at 1,369 m a.s.l. in the proximal area near the northern base of the slide mass; south and east of this point the bulging debris dam rises to a maximum of 1,446 m a.s.l. The main dam in the proximal valley created the larger Karli Lake, with a possible natural maximum volume around 61.7 Mio m 3 , and a secondary dam in the more distant creek of the Tung River created a smaller lake (Tung Lake), the natural maximum volume of which is estimated to be ca. 3.6 Mio m 3 . The highest point of the main dam, thereby, is situated ca. 77 m above the saddle, where the natural overflow would happen first. There, the total debris thickness adds up to no less than 350 m. In this distal (downstream) part, the dam mainly consists of large sandstone blocks (according to surface observation). There, a valley-like trough has been formed since the earthquake. The author has observed similar phenomena on large landslides in Pamir (Schneider 2004). The proximal and lower part of the dam is composed of sandstone fragments in a dominant matrix of disintegrated siltstone and claystone. Secondary slumps have formed on the northern side of the slide as well as on the northern part of the dam.

All figures shown here are obtained from the collaboration with the local surveyors and geographic information system (GIS) specialists from NESPAK, SUPARCO and Frontiers Work Organization FWO; some of them are in contradiction to [START_REF] Dunning | The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th October 2005[END_REF].

Work carried out

The author was assigned in October/November 2005 to January 2006 as the geological expert to the "Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit" situated in Islamabad and at the UN camp in Muzaffarabad, reporting daily to the Pakistan Army and the authorities. His responsibilities included the safety against rock fall and landslides of the transport routes that had been damaged by the earthquake. The UN Humanitarian Information Centre for Pakistan (UN-HIC) provided the required geographical information. Remote sensing information from UNOSAT first identified the Hattian landslide. As a consequence, after a helicopter reconnaissance with a touchdown at Dana Hilltop (Fig. 7) and on the landslide dam, a first assessment of the situation was carried out by the author early November 2005. The following investigations were then initiated with the Pakistan Army Corps of Engineers and the Geological Survey of Pakistan as well as local authorities:

-A topographical survey of the slide and catchment area was undertaken, including a rough survey of the downstream area as far as Hattian Village in the Jhelum Valley; -A detailed geological survey of the area was completed, with special emphasis on cracks and mass movements, as well as loose scree and soil downstream to Hattian; -Surface sampling was undertaken to determine the geotechnical properties of the slide mass using laboratory analyses; -A regime of daily observations of the water level in the two-pond lakes was initiated; an overflow of the Karli Dam was expected to begin after the Monsoon rain; -Hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological surveys were undertaken of the catchments, as well as the observation of springs below and possible seepage through the dam; -Observations and measurements of possible movements on cracks and sliding planes were initiated, together with observations to detect dam instability; Later missions of third parties studied the stability of the debris mass, the effects of flood waves and over flowing, as well as restoration and reconstruction measures (JSCE 2006;[START_REF] Harp | Landslides triggered by the October 8, 2005, Pakistan Earthquake and associated Landslidedammed Reservoirs[END_REF][START_REF] Dunning | The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th October 2005[END_REF]).

Discussion

The following lake outburst scenarios were considered:

-Failure of the dam by seepage/piping/suffusion; -Backward erosion of the dam caused by overflow over the lowest part of the dam crest; -A slump or slide from the SE slope of Dana Hill into Karli Lake; -A flood wave overtopping the dam caused by a slump or rockslide; -Partial erosion or a dam breach caused by an overtopping flood wave.

The hazards created by the smaller Tung Lake were considered much less serious than those created by the larger Karli Lake, but had to be considered still.

The following mitigation measures were proposed to the government by the author to lower the risk of a possible outburst flood. Most of them have been subsequently implemented:

-As a first measure, helipads as well as a 4 km access road from Hattian to the dam sites needed to be built for transport of heavy equipment. -Excavation of a spillway, 130 m long, to lower the water table at Tung Lake, a comparatively easy task, which was begun as soon as the road reached this dam. -Overflow by Karli Lake of the natural saddle (1369 m a.s.l.) at the foot of the affected slope needed to be avoided, not least because backward erosion of the dam by an overflow was thought to be very likely. So a second spillway, 425 m long, was constructed in the period up to June 2006 to keep the water table low at impounding Karli Lake and to reduce back erosion in case of an overflow. Since an excavation (undercutting) at the foot of the slide could have interfered with the stability of the slope, a deeper channel with reinforcement by gabions and riprap was planned in the central part of the dam rather than in the lower-lying saddle (Fig. 4). Possible seepage or piping was monitored closely, as the hazard of inner erosion (suffusion) is given especially during the first phase of consolidation. Drill holes with piezometers were planned to observe the rising and progressing pore water front. -Hazard maps as well as preliminary evacuation plans of vulnerable areas, dwellings and infrastructure in the upstream and downstream areas prone to flooding had to be compiled. Appropriate measures needed to be taken, and the most hazardous areas were evacuated. -A meteorological station was planned at the SCO-Station at Dana hilltop, as well as hydrological stations and observation of further mass movements.

All these mitigation measures needed to be enforced during the first quarter of 2006, before the big snowmelt and summer monsoon. Heavy precipitation and the associated first highs of water level in the lakes and rising pore water pressures within the shattered rocks adjacent to the lakes were the most critical hazards with respect to a potential outburst flood. This could have led to a flood wave or debris flow rushing down Karli valley towards Hattian and the Jhelum valley.

Since the first rainy season was not as heavy as feared, the level of Karli Lake did not rise as fast as foreseen by the author and no major slides occurred into the lake. The water level of Karli Lake reached the excavated spillway end of March 2007, and in the first days of April, the water started to flow gently along the spillway. [START_REF] Dunning | The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th October 2005[END_REF] describe seepage of water into the dam body in June 2007. Further development of dam stability in respect of water infiltration from the spillway needs to be observed closely. According to Dunning et al., the dug channel is only 10 m deep. According to NESPAK (personal communication) the spillway is performing well. Except for some minor seepage, no other seepage or distress has been reported on the landslide dam. Monitoring is in place with inflows and outflows being recorded. There have been no major secondary slides. The lake has now been handed over to the Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

The author initiated a Master Thesis with the task of calculating the probability of dam breaching, and modeling of consecutive destructive flood waves reaching Hattian in Jhelum Valley (see Fig. 9). The results of this work will go beyond JSCE ( 2006) and are to be published later. In the author's opinion, the . 11 Helicopter view (Nov. 2005) of the active slide or slump on the lower flank of Dana Hill, west or orographic left side of Karli Lake. In the mean time, the lake level rose up to the destroyed houses on the sliding mass. Note the bulging and cracking of the slope south of the active slide. The unstable foot of this slope is submerged. Possible consequences of these mass movements are discussed in the text above Also, even a flood wave created by a future slide into Karli Lake will do ever less damage with time, since the dam surface will be less vulnerable, once it has consolidated and been covered by vegetation, with the exception of the spillway, as mentioned above.

In Figs. 10 and 11, an active slide or slump is visible, developing on the left shore of the growing lake. This mass movement could trigger a flood wave, if a sudden failure would occur. A rapid lowering of the lake level caused by a partial dam failure was faired during the early stages of natural overflow of the dam. This would have caused an overpressure of the interstitial water in the slope triggering the slump. This hazard was minimized by human interaction and by time.

During the consultancy, satellite images from before and after the event using the CORONA, LANDSAT, TERRA ASTER and SPOT platforms were collected. They show an older (possibly historic) sliding mass at the location of the new landslide, which was overrun by the actual slide (Figs. 2, 3 and 12). The bulging mass in the centre of the actual slide seems to consist in the lower part to a large extent of older slide material (Figs. 3 and4). Some boulders on the actual dam deposit are clearly cemented former slide breccias as shown on Fig. 13a, in comparison to the actual slide debris shown on Fig. 13b. At the valley bottom, the Karli stream incised deep into the former landslide mass. On the CORONA stereo pair (Fig. 14), the massively eroded left (western) riverbank with slumps can be clearly recognized.

The hypothesis of a former, probably historic landslide at the location of the 2005 landslide, as well as other landslides from Dana Hill, postulated by the author is in contradiction with the observations of [START_REF] Harp | Landslides triggered by the October 8, 2005, Pakistan Earthquake and associated Landslidedammed Reservoirs[END_REF], [START_REF] Dunning | The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th October 2005[END_REF] and others. It is based on the morphology before and after the 2005 slide and on the observed cemented breccias. Further investigation will be done to test evidences for this hypothesis. The investigations and experience gathered during the mitigation works at Dana Hill and Karli Valley, in the vicinity of the Hattian landslide, lead one to conclude that this area has been very hazardous even before the devastating earthquake of 2005. Similar hazards exist on most south sloping flanks along the north dipping Tana thrust fault. In Kashmir, most of the larger mass movements were directed towards SE to SW; many of them were reactivated older slides. Huge masses of shattered rock still remain in hazardous positions above the populated valleys in a treacherous equilibrium. These masses can be destabilized quite easily by heavy precipitation or snowmelt and/or earthquakes, and therefore have to be considered as firstorder, remote geohazards.

Falls, slides or rapid flows are a substantial problem after an earthquake, threatening the vulnerable population and infrastructure in the lower parts of the valleys, especially if flood waves are created. This was clearly the case in Karli Valley above Hattian. The mitigation work done there is very valuable, but there is still a certain amount of remaining risk, particularly towards the end of the wet seasons. Detailed investigations and monitoring must continue and evacuation/rescue plans must be thoroughly maintained.

In general, a careful interpretation of seismotectonics, geology and morphology, taking the past as well as the ongoing processes into consideration, should result in risk evaluation and geohazard zone maps. The role of former landslides and slide debris, prone to be reactivated by earthquakes, but also by exceptional precipitation, ought to attract more attention during hazard zone mapping.

Unfortunately, it is only after a catastrophic event that mitigation works are common practice. To minimize the risk of the population's being affected by future events of such a nature in seismically active mountain regions, the scientific community, stakeholders and politicians are well advised to work together. Knowing the hazards, risk awareness and preparedness on all levels helps to save lives and, in the long run, financial resources also.

Fig. 1

 1 Fig. 1 Seismotectonical sketch map of the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis. The Hattian Landslide is marked with a red arrow in the right centre of the map. The orange star north of it marks the epicentre of the 8-10-2005 earthquake; the main cluster of

Fig. 2

 2 Fig. 2 Hattian Landslide sketch map. The information shown is interpreted from Kausar et al. (2006) and our own investigations. The perimeter of the "historic" landslide discussed below coincides roughly with landslide 2005

Fig. 3

 3 Fig.3View from top of the natural dam (1446 m a.s.l.) westwards towards slide scar on Dana Hill. The asymmetric, ESE dipping syncline can be recognized as well as the large central debris mass that remained in the lower half of the slide. The author postulates an older consolidated slide mass, only partly affected by the actual slide, and partly buried below this actual debris. Secondary slumps appear at the front of this mass and a secondary steeply inclined slide is clearly visible at the right (northern) edge of the photograph of early December 2005

Fig. 4

 4 Fig. 4 Helicopter view from above slide eastwards towards the natural dam formed by the landslide debris. At least three ridges can be distinguished, confirming the locally reported three surges. The above mentioned secondary slumps and slides can be seen in the foreground. Slumps have also slid northwards from the crest of the new debris dam. Vegetation on the contact between debris mass and opposite slope is intact and a distal trough was left open. This oblique photograph of early

Fig. 5

 5 Fig.5Shale of the Murree Formation on dam proximal to the landslide (hammer for scale). The clayey to silty material is crumbling apart, wetted by the morning dew. The resulting soil is quite impermeable and can thus act as an aquiclude. Monsoon rainfall will enhance this effect, adding to the consolidation of the slide debris

Fig. 8

 8 Fig.8Massive disruption of the Murree formation at the hillcrest between the communication tower and the top of actual landslide (view to south). This scene looks quite different from a normal landslide escarpment. Large amounts of shattered rock remain on the slope in unstable condition, which could potentially create further mass movements

  hazard of breaching of the dam is very unlikely now, since the stability of a natural dam increases by consolidation. Such natural landslide dams usually break within the first few years, or other stabilise with time. The author has observed several examples of such dams of different size and age in the Pamir and Tian Shan in Central Asia (Schneider 2004). There are excellent examples of breached and intact dams.

Fig

  Fig.9Google Earth (©2007 Google, ©2008 Digital Globe, ©2008 Europa Technologies, high resolution composite dated 10-03-2006, eye altitude 5.6 km). Possible flood pathway from dam site at right (south) over 4 km downstream through narrow gorge to Hattian and Jhelum Valley at left. The smaller Tung lake, with its artificial spillway, is visible at middle right of scenery. The construction of the lower part of the 450 m long Karli Lake spillway on the slide mass is not visible to this date in the lower right corner of the composite

Fig. 10

 10 Fig. 10 Oblique true colour scenery of Hattian slide and lake formation area (©2005 DigitalGlobe, QuickBird II, 27-10-2005). Note the complex geometry of the slide with its central bulge, lower part of it interpreted by the author as an older mass. The debris dam shows ridges and scars. The Karli and Tung lakes are observed to have started to fill up. Clearly visible is the narrow gorge downstream of the landslide dam. The SE facing slope of Dana Hill (left side of the image) shows recent landslide scars. The Tanda Fault is just outside the image on the left side; the hazardous slide developing on the left side of the lake shore is encircled and shown in detail in Fig. 11

Fig. 12

 12 Fig. 12 a, b: Satellite images of Hattian slide area (SPOT 4, XI and panchromatic M-modus, sceneries by SUPARCO, Pakistan, 2005, modified by the author) before the slide (22-10-2004, left), as well as after the earthquake triggered slide (21-10-2005, right), also showing the early stage of the formation of Karli and Tung Lakes. Karli Stream flows north (towards the

Fig

  Fig. 11 Helicopter view (Nov. 2005) of the active slide or slump on the lower flank of Dana Hill, west or orographic left side of Karli Lake. In the mean time, the lake level rose up to the destroyed houses on the sliding mass. Note the bulging and cracking of the slope south of the active slide. The unstable foot of this slope is submerged. Possible consequences of these mass movements are discussed in the text above

Fig. 13

 13 Fig. 13 a, b: Cemented breccia of slide debris from former landslide found in central distal area of landslide dam on the left photo. The cement consists of carbonates (tested with hydrochloric acid, see hammer for scale). The right photo

JSeismol (2009) 13:387-398

Acknowledgements The author was a member of the UN-OCHA and UNEP/UNDP joint relief task force in October/ November 2005 in Islamabad and Muzaffarabad after the 8th October Pakistan earthquake. This assessment was only possible with the full support of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, the Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit and UN-HIC Office in collaboration with the Pakistan Prime Ministry Office, the Military and Government Agencies, which also released unpublished data and documents. A large amount of further information used was available during emergency time at the intra/internet and interpreted by the author (e.g. UN-OCHA ReliefWeb, Virtual OSOCC and UNOSAT). Many links are not accessible any more, the origin not possible to quote. The links presented in the references were tested in January 2008.

The author would like to thank the Pakistan Army and the Geological Survey of Pakistan for their excellent cooperation, and also Prof. Harsh Gupta of the Indian National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) for the invitation to contribute to the special issue on the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake. The author also greatly acknowledges the thorough work of the reviewers, especially Wolfgang Straka. Special thanks also to our technical assistant for drawings 1 and 2. Furthermore, the financial support of the SDC for the travel expenses of the author to the Earthquake Conference in Islamabad in January 2006 is gratefully acknowledged.

Nakata T, Kumahara Y (2006)