Dr Anne Marchais-Roubelat

Dr Fabrice Roubelat
email: anne.roubelat@lecnam.net

SESSION EVOLUTION AND TRANSFORMATION OF CITIES, REGIONS AND COMMUNITIES -1 -The sustainability of the making of global communities Functions, dysfunctions, scenarios

Together with the concepts of stakeholder, the one of community has become increasingly salient in future-oriented literature to enlarge the set of stakeholders engaged in the co-design and the co-creation of decision and policymaking and to address sustainability issues. Supplementing an action-based perspective of the introduction of stakeholder analysis in scenario design, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework to assess the sustainability of global communities over time.

The paper questions the governance of global communities that include multi-layer and transnational organizations, as well as the salience of responsibility in innovation and anticipatory governance. The proposed conceptual framework is designed to assess and to scenarize the governance of such communities from strategic, organizational and contextual perspectives. The combination of these three perspectives aim to anticipate sustainability issues from stakeholders' acts, with a global viewpoint as well as the one of the territories impacted by the making of these global communities.

In a longitudinal approach, we develop three case studies of global communities to critically discuss the foresight process engaged in the third case, the two former ones being historical cases. The three cases study in depth the making and the transformation processes of three global communities and examine:

 the diffusion process of the Cistercian monastic order in the Middle age,  the rise, fall and refoundation of Asea Brown Boveri network organization from early 1980s to 2010,  the design of action-based scenarios for the future of fair-trade movement to 2030.

We selected these three polar cases to offer a diversity of data and viewpoints over time to explore, through the analysis of stakeholders' acts, critical events as well as long range changes.

The paper highlights methodological and theoretical results.

From a methodological perspective, the sustainability of global communities relates to the future-oriented analysis of a set of three rules (strategic rule, organising rule, contextual rule), which examines their functions and dysfunctions over time from:

 the diffusion and the disuse of the strategic rule,  the compliance and the transgression of the organising rule,  the connections and disconnections of the contextual rule.

The cases stress the theoretical issues of:  the transformations of global communities over time, which raise for policymakers the issues of standardization, of fragmentation and of slow innovation and their impact on sustainability,  the tensions between global standards designed within the community and local actions, which question the concepts of accountability and transparency.

Introduction. Anticipating the sustainability of communities at work

Together with the concepts of stakeholder [START_REF] Wangel | Change by whom? Four ways of adding actors and governance in backcasting studies[END_REF][START_REF] Cairns | A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning[END_REF], Cairn, Wright and Fairbrother, 2016), the one of community [START_REF] Roberts | Community and international business futures: Insights from software production[END_REF][START_REF] Botta | Evolution of the slow living concept within the models of sustainable communities[END_REF] has become increasingly salient in future-oriented literature to enlarge the set of stakeholders engaged in the co-design and the co-creation of decision and policymaking and to address sustainability issues. Supplementing an action-based perspective of the introduction of stakeholder analysis in scenario design (Marchais- [START_REF] Marchais-Roubelat | Dominance, stakeholders' moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures[END_REF], we propose a conceptual and methodological framework to assess the sustainability of global communities over time.

The paper questions the governance of global communities that include multi-layer and transnational organizations, as well as the salience of responsibility in innovation and anticipatory governance (Genus and Iskandovara, 2018) and the issues of accountability and transparency (Tonn, Scheb, Fitzerald and Stiefel, 2012). The proposed conceptual framework is designed to assess and to scenarize the governance of such communities from strategic, organizational and contextual perspectives. The combination of these three perspectives aim to anticipate sustainability issues from stakeholders' acts, with a global viewpoint as well as the one of the territories impacted by the making of these global communities.

In a longitudinal approach [START_REF] Hassett | Handbook of Longitudinal Research Methods in Organisation and Business Studies[END_REF], we develop three case studies of global communities to critically discuss the future-oriented action-based scenarios engaged in the third case, the two former ones being historical cases. The three cases study in depth the making and the transformation processes of three global communities and examine:

Methodological approach: Articulating geographical, historical and future-oriented methods

Ruling sustainable futures in a community-based perspective: strategic, organising and contextual issues

As Kahn noted, scenarios are about "future history" [START_REF] Kahn | Thinking about the unthinkable[END_REF]. To explore such a future history, the introduction of the concept of stakeholder in scenario literature suggests considering a broader range of actors (Cairn, Sliwa and Wright, 2010) and exploring disempowered and disadvantaged subjects [START_REF] Wright | Scenario thinking: practical approaches to the future[END_REF], as well as dominance relationships (Marchais- [START_REF] Marchais-Roubelat | Dominance, stakeholders' moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures[END_REF]. Such an approach of scenarios invites to discuss the autonomy of decision of stakeholders and how their interactions over time create the future. In this paper, we propose to focus on the concept of community, considered as an organisation form which is characterized by the high autonomy of its members [START_REF] Watson | Governance and global communities[END_REF]. The concept of community and the related one of network have become salient to emphasize how -3 -more or less autonomous and heterogeneous stakeholdersindividuals and organisationsmay interact [START_REF] Roubelat | Scenario planning as a networking process[END_REF][START_REF] Fuller | Entrepreneurship as foresight: A complex social network perspective on organisational foresight[END_REF][START_REF] Roberts | Community and international business futures: Insights from software production[END_REF][START_REF] Botta | Evolution of the slow living concept within the models of sustainable communities[END_REF]. Through these moving interactions, communities and networks can be viewed as the result of an action process, rather than a structure.

Considering communities in an action-based approach attempts to replace them in a longitudinal perspective and thus to provide an exploratory framework to go further with the relationship between history and futures thinking [START_REF] Flechtheim | History and futurology[END_REF][START_REF] Inayatullah | Futures studies and macrohistory[END_REF][START_REF] Bradfield | The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology[END_REF]. The objective is not to find historical analogies to be applied in futures research which would risk anachronism but to propose an action-based model to question scenario planning as one of its critical issue remains to understand how shifts occur and how sustainable communities may be, while sustainability requires an historical and future-oriented perspective (van Egmond, de Vries, 2011).

While futures literature connects the concept of transformation with changes in the rule of the game [START_REF] Macdonald | Futures and culture[END_REF], action-based scenarios method (Marchais- [START_REF] Marchais-Roubelat | Dominance, stakeholders' moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures[END_REF] proposes a rule-based approach to futures, in which scenarios are phases of action processes. To find out when and how successive movements will evolve, decision theory offers with the concept of rule a guideline to assess "what-if statements" from a player perspective [START_REF] Baligh | Decision rule theory and its use in the analysis of the organization's performance[END_REF]. Extending such a definition, action-based scenarios define a rule as a constraint on behaviour or a relation between variables, which operates during a scenario. Action-based scenarios are designed from rules that may be transformed by stakeholders' moves as well as by contextual changes beyond stakeholders' acts and goals. Such scenarios are part of developmental scenarios [START_REF] Van Notten | An updated scenario typology[END_REF] as they insist on how scenarios are transformed over time. Four transformation modes serve as guidelines to stress how rules may shift over time: transfer, stalemate, oscillation, phase lag (Marchais- [START_REF] Marchais-Roubelat | Dominance, stakeholders' moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures[END_REF]. In transfers, a new paradigm replaces the former one, which questions irreversibility issues, stakeholders' and communities' strategies being challenged by the new paradigm. In case of stalemate, stakeholders and communities are trapped by the rules and unable to create new transformations. Oscillations stress the move to and fro two or more sets of rules. In a phase lag, some stakeholders do not play the rule, which means that communities may face heterogeneous and contradictory behaviours. To examine communities at work, we propose a conceptual framework designed from three rules: a strategic rule, an organising rule, a contextual rule (table 1). The strategic rule gives sense to the action process of the community. The organising rule stresses how the members of the community interact to implement the strategic rule. The contextual rule exhibits how the community interact with its environment. In a longitudinal perspective, we propose to assess the sustainability of the community over time from the evolution of these three rules as they respectively challenge the sense of the action of the community, the governance of the community, including the issues of accountability and transparency (Tonn, Scheb, Fitzerald and Stiefel, 2012), as well as the relation with the environment of the community.

-4 - -critical events, -long range progressive changes. Foresight analysis (Fair-trade case): -transfer, -stalemate, -oscillation, -phase lag.

Assessing decision and policymaking issues

Rule shift analysis: -use and disuse of the strategic rule -function and disfunction of the organising rule -connection and disconnection of the contextual rule

Research design: exploring communities at work in a longitudinal perspective

To explore these three communities at work, we selected three communities as different as possible one from the other: Cîteaux, ABB and Fair-Trade movement. These three cases offer the possibility to adopt different temporal perspectives and to discuss the moving spatiality of the communities over time, which adds a geographical dimension to the historical and futureoriented perspectives. Through a longitudinal analysis, historical analysis attempts to induce from facts, more than from intents, the rules that explain the emergence and the changes over time of the communities for Cîteaux and ABB. For the fair-trade case, a foresight analysis looks for anticipations of prospective changes. The research design is divided into three parts (table 2). First, we explore the emergence of communities from an historical analysis to induce strategic, organising and contextual rules. Secondly, we implement two different methods to analyse communities at work over time: a longitudinal analysis [START_REF] Hassett | Handbook of Longitudinal Research Methods in Organisation and Business Studies[END_REF] for Cîteaux and ABB cases to discuss critical events and long range progressive changes, a foresight analysis for the fair-trade case to anticipate prospective transformations of the communities from transfers, stalemates, oscillations and phase lags. Thirdly, a rule shift analysis is implemented to discuss sustainability decision and policy-making issues from the use and disuse of the strategic rule, the function and dysfunction of the organising rule, the connection and disconnection of the contextual rule.

Cîteaux and ABB historical cases are based on the triangulation of different sources:

-historical research works from early XXth to the last decade, as well as medieval texts such as VIth century Saint-Benedict rule or mid XIth century Raoul Glaber's chronicles for the Cîteaux case, -1988 to 2015 annual reports and facts reported in Factiva database, as well as research articles from Business source premier and Sciencedirect, for ABB case.

The fair-trade foresight case is based on outputs from 2017 international fair-trade conference, which brought together in Agadir -Morocco academics and decision and policy-makers from the -5 -fair-trade movement. The case is supplemented by related scientific literature and interviews of co-op members from an ongoing research on fair-trade local communities (Marchais- [START_REF] Marchais-Roubelat | Does certification play an ambiguous role in Fair-Trade governance? Insights from the case of Moroccan Argan oil cooperatives[END_REF].

Interacting rules at work: the making of three global communities

The making of the three communities can be explored from model of three rules (table 3). For Cîteaux, the strategic rule follows the goal of Benedict to establish a school for Lord service, while Barnevik's ABB is driven by the shareholder-oriented goal to reach a profitable operating margin and the fair-trade movement introduces ethics in global trade.

Asea Brown Boveri

Reaching an operating margin of at least 10%

Making autonomous operating units responsible for their results

Mixing global and local assessment

Fair trade movement

Introducing ethics in global trade

Certifying fair trade Connecting economic, environmental and humankind issues

The Cîteaux case depicts the making of a monastic community in a long-range perspective in the XIIth century (1080-1220). The aim of the community was to restore old regular traditions, through the literal observance of Benedict rule, which provide principles to establish a school for Lord service ("constituenda est ergo nobis dominici scola servitii"). The emergence and the diffusion of this global community in Europe and the near East in a context of intense change is characterised by the autonomy of abbeys, their development by swarming of small units, and their role in the diffusion of innovations. In addition to its influence in the religious life, this increasing global community played an important economic part, in particular with regard to grounds clearing and development. The decline of the order, whose first signs appear at the end of the XIIth century, is in particular due to a rigidification of the order's rule, which leads to the rise of new orders in accordance with the society, like the mendicant ones in the XIIIth century, and to a discordance between the ideal of individual poverty and the community's economic success.

ABB case may be the considered as a corporate case rather than a community. But the rise and the fall of this symbol of the slogan "think global, act local" in the 1980s and 1990s decades, as well as the importance paid to autonomy in ABB model of global business [START_REF] Taylor | The Logic of Global Business: An Interview with ABB's Percy Barnevik[END_REF], invite to consider the making of ABB by Percy Barnevik as a global community. This community is based on a network organisation designed to combine competitive advantages on local and global dimensions whereas they are generally incompatible. On the one hand, the network enables the use of technological and R&D support systems on a worldwide scale, but on the other hand its local companies are managed as independent SMEs to the specific constraints of local consumption. The model ends with the arrival of the new president and CEO, Goran Lindahl: in addition to the Management committee's renovation, the regional levels are dissolved in September 1998, and ABB increases its number of markets from 4 to 7, as the company continues its investment-disvestment policy, and decreases its revenues. Barnevik's network will be then called "global matrix" and Lindahl's one "global multidivisional network" (Ruigrok et alii, 2000). In 2002, the company faces the shock of the asbestos crisis of its American subsidiary Combustion Engineering, acquired in 1989.

The case of fair trade could have been analysed over time as a longitudinal analysis from the set of rules that refers to communities of stakeholders such as Max Havelaar, which introduce ethics into global trade (strategic rule), set up certification processes (organising rule) and connect economic, environmental and humankind issues (contextual rule). Rather than on historical facts, the foresight process is based on anticipations about the four transformation modes of scenarios. In this case, we looked for new scenarios for the community from each of the transformation mode (table 4) to be detailed and discussed step 3. Scenarios include anticipations about the shift in community structures and strategies that would lead to an uberization of fair trade, the trap of the standardization of fair trade, the oscillation between artisanal and industrial fair-trade communities, and the fragmentation of fair trade, which would create gaps within and between communities.

Phase lag Gaps within and between communities

Fragmentation of fair trade

Results, discussion and implications

Strategy in question: from emergence of the strategic rule to disuse over time

For decision and policy-making, the key issues of the strategic rule are its modes of establishment, i.e. how the rule occurred during the action process, and its modes of disuse (table 5).

We differentiate two logics of implementation of the strategic rule at a global scale:

 the aim and the constraint to respect appear when the community is growing (Cîteaux): the aim exists because the community is at work, leading to the progressive making of a new global community in response to the surge of vocations in reaction to the easy-going life of existing orders, although the Benedict rule is prior to the making of the Cistercian community, -7 - the aim is established to transform an organisation that is designed to serve it (management decision): the community turns global because of it. The importance of individual actions, such as Robert and Bernard for Cîteaux, Barnevik for ABB has also to be emphasized in the making of the strategic rule, even if the analysis of real primitive intents is a difficult exercise as Pacaut noted it for the Cistercian case [START_REF] Pacaut | Les ordres monastiques et religieux au Moyen Age[END_REF].

Two modes of disuse are possible over time:

 a progressive evolution (Cîteaux) which does not lead necessarily to a phase shift as Cistercians will always serve this strategic rule, which however no longer serves the global expansion of the community (figure 1),  a disruption (ABB), as the rule disappears and is replaced by another one when new President and CEO Goran Lindahl replace Percy Barnevik, although the objective is nearly achieved (9,7 % in 1995).

The fair-trade case suggests that a strategic rule may take various meanings over time, as both developed and developing countries are being transformed and as the different scenarios would not consider ethics as an unchangeable concept. What is unsustainable for a community could become sustainable for a new generation with a new context or with new stakeholders. With uberization and marketplaces, ethics would be reduced to minimum common criteria to be negotiated. In the standardization scenario, ethics would be frozen over time, while oscillation  the rule is sought by members who will take part in the community to respect that special one, which makes the community grow (Cîteaux);

 the constraint is imposed on the members: as they are in the community or acquired by it, they have to respect its organising rule (ABB).

The organising rule can emerge from the community progressively during its constitution by a process of self-organisation, but it is not always the case. Some individuals or stakeholders may play a premium role and exert a dominance, either weak and/or strong (Marchais-Roubelat and Roubelat, 2016) over the community. In the case of ABB the organising rule was the consequence of the will of the decision maker (Percy Barnevik). In the case of Cîteaux, Stephen Harding and Bernard of Clairvaux played a great part in the development of the Order so that many members were influenced by their projects and individual actions. In ABB case, a merging and acquiring policy added new members in the community. All members were responsible for their results and were sometimes divided in operating units, such as the German subsidiary of Brown Boveri, which was composed of 54 separate legal companies four years after the 1987 merger [START_REF] Berggren | Building a truly global organization ? ABB and the problems of integrating a multi-domestic enterprise[END_REF]. The dysfunction of the organising rule reveals the paradox of success -9 -when local Cistercian communities become wealthy, which challenges the individual accountability of members to the strategic rule. In ABB case, the autonomy of local companies is balanced with an information system that provides accountability to the strategic rule, while the change of CEO will be accompanied by a transparency crisis on Barnevik's pension, as well as the dramatic impact of major local risks on the global community with asbestos crisis. This suggests paying attention to compliance, as well as to transgressions in a longitudinal perspective, as some local decisions may have long range consequences for the global community. The fair-trade case suggests that global communities may be extended from the two dynamics, as members would seek for certification processes and related global standards to become ethics or would have adopt standards under the pressure of stakeholders. Uberization stresses -10 -the prospective competition between local communities and global marketspaces that would capture fair-trade standards, with an increased formal transparency, which would weaken the long-range relationships between members within the community. Standardization questions the significance of accountability with the institutionalization of procedures that would replace a real interactive process between stakeholders. The oscillation between artisanal and industrialized standards exemplifies the paradox of success and the prospective shifts over time from artisanal to industry standards, as well as the possible rejection of the commoditization of standards, which would mean a rebirth of artisanal ones. Different standards may however be developed at the same time with the multiplication of local standards either to address local markets or cope with specific local public policies.

The scale of the community: tactical or strategic issues of the contextual rule

In action, the community at work produces connections between assessment dimensions of the environment (table 7). These connections may be side effects of the making of the community as in the Cîteaux case or be voluntarily required when the community uses such connections as an explicit background to support the community strategic rule, as in ABB and fair-trade cases. The Cistercian case is of particular interest to discuss connections and disconnections over time.

At the beginning, the constitution of the Cistercian Order corresponds to the monks' aspirations of withdrawal to the desert, in poverty and work, partly in reaction to Cluniac Order or other Benedictine abbeys in a context of enrichment of abbeys [START_REF] Mason | The beginnings of the Cistercian order[END_REF], as described in around 1047 Raoul Glaber's Chronique de l'an mil (year 1000 chronicles). Early Cistercian settlements are trying to live out of the world, disconnecting the spiritual dimension from other ones. However, abbeys did not live in complete self-sufficiency and thus were not completely disconnected from their environment. In 1134 order rule, a list of forbidden activities and properties did not include the possibility to sell their products, which was the root of the new connection between economic and spiritual dimension. Manual work was a way of penitence as well as the main enrichment cause of the abbeys. The economic dimension and technology diffusion in farming, which is associated with the rise of the Order [START_REF] Donkin | The Cistercian order in Medieval England: some conclusions[END_REF], Grubler, 1996), entered in increasing contradiction with the spiritual ideal of the monks. Economic and spiritual dimensions became less and less compatible, added to the new mission of struggle against heresy in late XIIth Century for which Cistercians were unprepared [START_REF] Pacaut | Les ordres monastiques et religieux au Moyen Age[END_REF]. ABB case highlights on the other hand the evolution over time of the global-local interaction and the transformations of Barnevik's community of autonomous companies into a more classic multinational firm where the local dimension is less salient.

In the fair-trade case, each scenario stresses new connections that may challenge the previous connections. In uberization, individuals become more important than the community and the importance of some dimensions may decrease over time. In standardization, global standards overrule local practices. The connections being frozen, it turns more difficult to cope with local sustainability issues. In the industrialization of fair trade, the economic dimension becomes more important, while in the fragmentation scenario local dimensions and global niche communities change, even slightly, the balance between the different assessment dimensions. The nature of the evolution of these connections and disconnection over time is also to be questioned, as the sustainability of communities' issues includes a reflection on slow evolutions, as well as meets the one on the ephemerality of scenarios (Roubelat, Brasset, McAllum, Hoffmann, Kera, 2015).

Conclusions

The sustainability of global communities relates to the future-oriented analysis of a set of three rules (strategic rule, organising rule, contextual rule), which examines their functions and dysfunctions over time from:

 the diffusion and the disuse of the strategic rule,  the compliance and the transgression of the organising rule,  the connections and disconnections of the contextual rule.

The combination of the functions and dysfunctions of these three rules over time offers a conceptual framework to design scenarios that anticipate the emergence, the rise, the transformations, and sometimes the fall, of global communities.

The cases stress:

 the transformations of global communities over time, which raises for policymakers the issues of standardization, of fragmentation and of slow innovation and their impact on sustainability,  the tensions between global standards designed within the community and local actions, which questions the concepts of accountability and transparency. These tensions invite to critically discuss the concepts of accountability and transparency over time and across



  the diffusion process of the Cistercian monastic order in the Middle age,  the rise, fall and refoundation of Asea Brown Boveri network organization from early 1980s to 2010,  the design of action-based scenarios for the future of fair-trade movement to 2030.

  propose alternative or competing global or local communities, fair-trade becoming either a commodity or a niche. Source: Dolkin, 1963Stakeholders' behaviours within communities: compliance and transgression with the organising ruleAll the stakeholders taking part in the community respect the organising rule. The organising rule marks a separation between the stakeholders who are inside the community and the ones who are outside. The border drawn at the moment of the observation could have already changed the moment later. One cannot thus propose a typology of the organising rules based on the organisations they generate. For the members, two dynamics for joining the community are possible:

  Brussels, 4-5 June 2018 SESSION EVOLUTION AND TRANSFORMATION OF CITIES, REGIONS AND COMMUNITIES

	accountability, community, governance, scenarios, sustainability
	-2 -

Table 1 . Ruling communities

 1

	Strategic rule	Organising rule	Contextual rule
	The community works to	Participating members -	A new connection between
	reach a specific and durable	individuals or organisations -	assessment dimensions is
	aim	respect a constraint which	made as long as the
		serves durably the aim	community exists

Table 2 .

 2 Research design

	Research steps	Outputs
	1. Exploring the emergence of	Historical analysis of community rule set:
	communities	-strategic rule,
		-organising rule,
		-contextual rule.
	2. Analysing communities at work	Longitudinal analysis (Cîteaux and ABB cases):
	over time

Table 3 .

 3 Ruling global communities: synthesis of the three cases

		Strategic rule	Organising rule	Contextual rule
	Cîteaux	Serving the Lord to be	Living according to the	Connecting spiritual
		worthy to enter His	Rule of the Order based	and economic
		kingdom through the	on individual poverty,	development
		literal observance of	manual work and
		the Benedict Rule	submission to the
			elected abbot

Table 4 .

 4 Fair-trade scenarios

	Transformation mode Implications for communities	Scenarios
	Transfer	Shifts in community structures	Uberization of fair trade
		and strategies
	Stalemate	Traps from community rules	Standardization of fair trade
	Oscillation	Alternative attractors for the	Artisanal fair-trade vs
		community	industrialization of fair trade

Table 5 .

 5 Establishment and disuse of strategic rules

	Case	Strategic rule	Establishment	Disuse
	Cîteaux	Serving the Lord	Organisational response	Progressive decrease of
		to be worthy to	to the surge of vocations	foundations and of the
		enter His	in reaction to the easy-	number of abbeys
		kingdom through	going life of existing
		the literal	orders
		observance of the
		Benedict Rule
	ABB	Reaching an	Strategic decision made	Disruption after President and
		operating margin	by the company	CEO change
		of at least 10%	President and CEO
	Fair-trade	Introducing ethics	Search for fairness in	Uberization: ethics turns
	movement	in global trade	economic relationships	specific
			with developing countries	Standardization: ethics
				becomes frozen
				Artisanal/industrialization:
				ethics becomes a commodity
				Fragmentation: ethics varies
				according to specific markets,
				local communities, or
				competing global
				communities

Table 6 .

 6 Principles of function and dysfunction of the organising rule

	Case	Organising rule	Principles of function	Principles of dysfunction
	Cîteaux	Living according	Individual poverty, which	Parallel action processes
		to the Rule of the	drives the rule of the	emerge from some leading
		Order based on	Order, is sought by the	members, such as Bernard of
		individual poverty,	prospective monks to	Clairvaux and his followers
		manual work and submission to the elected abbot	deserve the Lord through penitence and renunciation to the world	Formally, the rule is followed, but its meaning changed, as abbeys become wealthy.
				Consequence: it is less and
				less sought by new
				participants
	ABB	Making	Financial responsibility is	The rule is modified by the
		autonomous	transferred at operating	new CEO: operating units are
		operating units	levels, which are	still responsible but no more
		responsible for	controlled through a	autonomous
		their results	common information
			system
	Fair-trade	Certifying fair	Development and	Uberization: competition
	movement	trade	diffusion of fair-trade	between local communities
			global standards and	and standards captured by
			brands	global marketspaces
				Standardization: loss of sense
				through procedures rather
				than process
				Artisanal/industrialization:
				paradox of success and
				commoditization of standards
				Fragmentation: multiplication
				of local standards either to
				address local markets or cope
				with specific local public
				policies

Table 7 .

 7 The contextual rule in action: connections and disconnections

	Case	Contextual rule	Connections	Disconnections
	Cîteaux	Connecting	Economic dimension	Contradiction: economic
		spiritual and	emerges as a feedback	dimension becomes
		economic	of spiritual	incompatible with spiritual
		development	dimension through	dimension
			individual poverty,
			penitence and manual
			work
	ABB	Mixing global and	Domestic companies are	Downgrading: local dimension
		local assessment	acquired to develop	is less strategic and local
			domestic markets and	costs increase more than
			are then restructured to	sales
			cut costs
	Fair-trade	Connecting	Growing importance of	Uberization: individuals
	movement	economic,	sustainability issues	become more important than
		environmental		the community
		and humankind		Standardization: global
		issues		standards overrule local
				practices
				Artisanal/industrialization: the
				product is more important
				than the producer/the
				producer is more important
				than the product
				Fragmentation: local
				communities overrule global
				ones

-12 -territories to avoid misunderstanding and anachronism in anticipating the futures of global communities. Such transformations and tensions encourage to explore further research linking history, and futures thinking [START_REF] Bradfield | The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology[END_REF], while historical cases also suggest paying attention to the role of individuals in decision and policy-making.


Elena Bergamini

Hélène Pillet

Goulven Rochcongar

Patricia Thoreux

Wafa Skalli

Aurelio Cappozzo

Philippe Rouch

Estimation of subject-specific ligament length variation during knee flexion

Keywords: Knee ligaments, attachment sites, modeling, human movement analysis

Introduction

Detailed knowledge about subject-specific knee ligament length variation during knee flexion is crucial for musculoskeletal modeling in human movement analysis and in clinical contexts [START_REF] Ascani | A procedure to estimate the origins and the insertions of the knee ligaments from computed tomography images[END_REF]. In this respect, accurate estimation of ligament origin and insertion locations is needed. Although extensive literature exists describing the ligament attachment site position ex vivo [START_REF] Kopf | A systematic review of the femoral origin and tibial insertion morphology of the ACL[END_REF]), this information is hardly obtainable in vivo unless using medical imaging techniques (magnetic resonance, MRI, or computed tomography, CT) that are time-consuming, expensive and, when radiation is involved, risky for the subjects. Furthermore, the identification of the ligament attachment site location using MRI may be characterized by significant inter-and intra-observer variability thus leading to errors that are too large to generate reliable subject-specific knee models [START_REF] Rachmat | Generating finite element models of the knee: how accurately can we determine ligament attachment sites from MRI scans?[END_REF]. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to propose and validate a method for the accurate in vivo estimation of the subject-specific length of the major knee ligaments (anterior and posterior cruciate, ACL and PCL, medial and collateral ligaments, MCL and LCL) which does not necessarily require the use of medical imaging techniques to identify the ligament attachment sites.

Methods

Specimens, kinematics and bone models

Eleven specimens (age: 47-79 years), consisting of femur, patella, fibula, tibia and intact joint passive structures, were analyzed after a thawing period of 24 h. Two clusters of markers were secured to the femur and tibia and three tantalum spheres were embedded in each bone. The specimens were set in motion (six flexion-extension cycles, range of motion: 0-120°) using the device described in [START_REF] Azmy | EOS orthopaedic imaging system to study patellofemoral kinematics: assessment of uncertainty[END_REF] and the 3D pose of both bony segments were recorded with an optoelectronic system (Polaris, CA). Two orthogonal X-ray images of each specimen were simultaneously obtained (EOS®, FR) and a 3D digital model of the tibia, fibula, and femur, including markers and tantalum spheres, was obtained using the reconstruction algorithm validated in [START_REF] Chaibi | Fast 3D reconstruction of the lower limb using a parametric model and statistical inferences and clinical measurements calculation from biplanar X-rays[END_REF]. This algorithm scales and deforms bone templates to match subject-specific X-ray images. Anatomical reference frames were then defined for the tibia and femur bone models according to [START_REF] Schlatterer | Skeletal landmarks for TKR implantations: evaluation of their accuracy using EOS imaging acquisition system[END_REF].

True and estimated ligament length variations

Each specimen was dissected and the attachment sites of ACL, PCL, superficial bundle of MCL, and LCL were identified and marked using a radio-opaque paint composed of barium sulphate. CT scans of each bone epiphysis were taken (Philips, Best, NL) and processed to obtain the 3D geometry of each attachment site footprint, as well as the position of the tantalum spheres. The latter were used to perform a registration between the reference frames of the X-ray and CT scan systems, and to map the attachment sites on the corresponding subject-specific bone models. The centroids of the origin and insertion of each ligament, hereinafter referred to as true centroids (x t ), were then calculated and their 3D positions expressed with respect to the corresponding bone anatomical reference frame. To obtain the estimated subject-specific centroids (x e ), x t coordinates were first scaled and deformed using a kriging algorithm [START_REF] Trochu | A contouring program based on dual kriging interpolation[END_REF] to map each true centroid on the bone templates used in [START_REF] Chaibi | Fast 3D reconstruction of the lower limb using a parametric model and statistical inferences and clinical measurements calculation from biplanar X-rays[END_REF], thus obtaining 11 centroids (one for each specimen) for each ligament attachment site (Figure 1). CONTACT e. Bergamini elena.bergamini@uniroma4.it advantage of not necessarily requiring the use of medical imaging techniques to identify the subject-specific ligament attachment sites, allows to accurately estimate the ligament lengths during knee flexion-extension in vivo, provided that the kinematics obtained is accurate and reliable. This information can lead to individualized and realistic musculoskeletal knee models to be applied either in human movement analysis or in clinical contexts.

Second, the mean of 10 out of 11 centroids was computed and, following a leave-one-out cross-validation approach, the algorithm validated in [START_REF] Chaibi | Fast 3D reconstruction of the lower limb using a parametric model and statistical inferences and clinical measurements calculation from biplanar X-rays[END_REF] was further applied to each mean centroid, thus obtaining x e . The distance between each true origin and insertion, as well as between each estimated origin and insertion (true and estimated lengths, l t and l e , respectively), was determined for all ligaments during knee flexion-extension. To investigate if significant differences existed between true and estimated ligament lengths, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) were computed between l t and l e for each ligament. In addition, a paired t-test (alpha level = 0.05) between l t and l e was performed for the following flexion angles: 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, 90°, 105°, and 120°.

Results and discussion

The true and estimated length variation of each ligament during knee flexion is reported in Figure 2. RMSEs between l t and l e were lower than 0.2 mm for all ligaments. Strong correlations were found for all ligament length pairs (r > 0.7). Finally, no significant difference (p > 0.1) was found between l t and l e for all ligaments at all considered knee flexion angles.

These results indicate that the proposed method allows to accurately estimate the subject-specific length variation of the major knee ligaments during knee flexion-extension. This was done by matching bone template models, embedding the coordinates of each ligament attachment site centroids, to individual bones. The subject-specific morphological information needed to perform this matching, obtained in the present work using low dose X-rays, can also be derived in vivo by acquiring partial features of the bones through manual palpation of bony prominences [START_REF] Donati | Enhanced anatomical calibration in human movement analysis[END_REF], therefore without the use of any medical imaging techniques.

Conclusions

The present study proposes and validates a methodology for the estimation of the subject-specific length variation of the four major knee ligaments. This methodology, which has the

Figure 1 .

 1 Figure 1. Femur and tibia templates with all centroids.

Figure 2 .

 2 Figure 2. true and estimated ligament length variation mean, maximum and minimum curves are depicted.

Acknowledgements

The contribution of Ann-Laure Pollastri and of Louis Dagneaux are gratefully acknowledged.