Emanuele Ferragina
email: emanuele.ferragina@sciencespo.fr-m.s.kaiser@gmail.com-m.tomlinson@zmail.com

Martin Seeleib-Kaiser

Mark Tomlinson

Unemployment Protection and Family Policy at the Turn of the 21st Century: A Dynamic Approach to Welfare Regime Theory

Keywords:

This article contributes to the welfare state regime literature from a substantive and methodological perspective. At a very abstract level we confirm the relevance of the welfare state regime theory and stability for the period from 1971 to the end of the 1990s. However, by analyzing family policy and unemployment protection, we observe a dual transformation of the welfare state, consisting of a trend towards a 'socialization' of family policies and a retrenchment in unemployment insurance benefits.

Our Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) of the two policy domains captures the multidimensionality of the decommodification and defamilialization concepts and visualizes welfare state developments over time in a Cartesian space. This dynamic analysis provides us with a nuanced understanding of welfare state regime stability and change.

Introduction

Over the past two decades comparative welfare state analyses have been strongly influenced by Esping-Andersen's seminal work The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Many scholars within the field of comparative social policy research have used his regime typology as a heuristic device to analyze and compare different systems and policy domains; others have questioned the appropriateness of the typology (for comprehensive reviews of the literature, see Art andGelissen 2002, 2010;[START_REF] Arcanjo | Ideal (and Real) Types of Welfare State[END_REF][START_REF] Powell | An Audit of the Welfare Modelling Business[END_REF][START_REF] Ferragina | The Welfare Regime Debate: Past, Present[END_REF]. The debate about the appropriateness of Esping-Andersen's regime typology can be interpreted as a symptom for the 'adolescence' [START_REF] Weber | On the Methodology of the Social Sciences[END_REF][START_REF] Weber | On the Methodology of the Social Sciences[END_REF]: 104) of comparative social policy research, as scholars have not yet learned 'to navigate safely in the vast area of empirical facts' [START_REF] Weber | On the Methodology of the Social Sciences[END_REF][START_REF] Weber | On the Methodology of the Social Sciences[END_REF]: 104) without using Esping-Andersen's ideal typical construction. While [START_REF] Powell | An Audit of the Welfare Modelling Business[END_REF] have suggested that additional research is required at the theoretical level, [START_REF] Ferragina | The Welfare Regime Debate: Past, Present[END_REF] maintain that more substantive, empirical and methodological work is needed.

Welfare regime typologies have been empirically tested in a rather static manner, by either providing a snap-shot analysis at a certain point in time or by analyzing a limited number of data points (i.e. one by Esping- [START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism[END_REF] and [START_REF] Shalev | The Privatization of Social Policy[END_REF][START_REF] Shalev | Limits and Alternatives to Multiple Regression in Comparative Research[END_REF], two by Scruggs andAllan [2006, 2008], and three by [START_REF] Castles | World, Families, Regimes[END_REF]), without systematically employing a dynamic temporal analysis over several decades. It is widely accepted within the literature that political parties and power resources have at least historically mattered for the development of the various kinds of welfare regimes, as they relate to the main political movements of Western Europe, i.e. Social Democracy, Christian Democracy and Liberalism [START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism[END_REF][START_REF] Korpi | The Democratic Class Struggle[END_REF][START_REF] Stephens | The Transition from Capitalism to Socialism[END_REF]). If, however, political parties have undergone significant transformations over the past decades, as some research would suggest (cf. [START_REF] Pontusson | Explaining the Decline of European Social Democracy. The Role of Structural Economic Change[END_REF][START_REF] Rueda | Social Democracy Inside Out[END_REF][START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | Neubeginn oder Ende der Sozialdemokratie?[END_REF][START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | Party Politics and Social Welfare[END_REF], we might expect a substantial transformation of welfare regimes over time. [START_REF] Kittel | Political Parties, Institutions, and the Dynamics of Social Expenditure in Times of Austerity[END_REF] as well as [START_REF] Huber | Development and Crisis of the Welfare State[END_REF] have identified a declining importance of partisanship in explaining welfare state outcomes. Furthermore, [START_REF] Jessop | Toward a Schumpeterian Workfare State?[END_REF], for example identifies a major transformation towards a Schumpeterian workfare state, while others, such as [START_REF] Pierson | Dismantling the Welfare State[END_REF], highlight welfare state resilience and stability, mainly due to the stickiness of institutions and path dependence. [START_REF] Taylor-Gooby | The Silver Age of the Welfare State Perspectives on Resilience[END_REF] has pointed out that welfare state changes tend to be less visible when using quantitative methods, compared to nuanced qualitative comparisons of policy processes. This article contributes to the comparative welfare state literature in three ways:

• we propose a dynamic temporal approach to welfare regime analysis;

• we integrate the work-welfare and care-welfare nexi into our dynamic temporal approach; • we use a quantitative technique known as Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) in order to capture the multi-dimensionality and complexity of change. This method has been selected because it facilitates a superior treatment of categorical variables (for example, 'spiky' distributions, which in other analyses have often been considered as continuous) and places countries into a 'space' allowing for a complex multi-dimensional analysis.

In order to measure regime stability and change we developed four models. In our first model we use the decommodification potential of unemployment insurance, pension and sickness benefits, as developed by Esping-Andersen, for the period from 1971 to 1999. Although the work-welfare nexus still constitutes a core element of welfare state regimes, it is insufficient to capture very important societal and social policy developments. As already emphasized by [START_REF] Lewis | Gender and the Development of Welfare Regimes[END_REF] two decades ago, the care-welfare nexus constitutes a core element of welfare state arrangements and needs to be considered in any welfare regime analysis. Demographic and socio-economic trends as well as the difficulties experienced by parents to reconcile work and care -often subsumed under the heading of new social risks -have further drawn the attention of welfare state scholars and policymakers to the importance of this nexus [START_REF] Bonoli | The Politics of the New Social Policies[END_REF][START_REF] Bonoli | Time Matters[END_REF][START_REF] Taylor-Gooby | New Risks[END_REF][START_REF] Mahon | The OECD and the Work/Family Reconciliation Agenda[END_REF]). Moreover, many authors have argued that the future of welfare state systems will largely be dependent on improved arrangements to balance work and family life [START_REF] Crompton | Employment and the Family[END_REF][START_REF] Lewis | Women and Social Policies in Europe: Work, Family and the State[END_REF][START_REF] Gilbert | A Mother's Work[END_REF][START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Incomplete Revolution[END_REF]. Hence, our second model focuses on the development of unemployment insurance and family policies for the time period from 1980 to 2008, constituting the first regime analysis to systematically scrutinize the development of the two policy domains in a dynamic analysis.1 Unfortunately, we were not able to extend our analysis to the 1970s, as comparable spending data for childcare services are not available. Models 3 and 4 analyze family policy and unemployment protection separately.

Our article is structured as follows: the next section provides a brief review of the main elements of the welfare regime debate from substantive and methodological perspectives; then we present our methodological approach; and the last section discusses the findings of the empirical models and their implications.

Worlds of Welfare: Substance and Methodology

Esping-Andersen (1990) identified three welfare state regimes, based on the notion of ideal types, which are said to be closely associated with the dominant political movements of Western Europe, i.e. Social Democracy, Christian Democracy and Liberalism. The ideal Social-Democratic welfare state is based on the principles of universalism and social citizenship, and the ideal Christian-Democratic welfare states are based on the principle of subsidiarity and the dominance of social insurance schemes. The Liberal regime is rooted in market dominance and private social provision; the state primarily interferes to alleviate poverty and provides for basic needs, largely on a means-tested basis. Esping-Andersen's work has been discussed and criticized from theoretical [START_REF] Powell | An Audit of the Welfare Modelling Business[END_REF], substantive and methodological perspectives (for a review, see [START_REF] Ferragina | The Welfare Regime Debate: Past, Present[END_REF]. In the following we focus only on substantive and methodological concerns relating to Esping-Andersen's theoretical framework and the concepts of decommodification and defamilialization.

At the substantive level scholarly debates mainly developed around the following three issues:

1. the identification of additional regimes (e.g. [START_REF] Castles | Identifying Welfare State Regimes[END_REF] identified a fourth regime, the Radical type, based on a reversed means-testing logic, largely excluding the upper-middle and upper classes from social provisions; [START_REF] Leibfried | Towards a European Welfare State[END_REF] and [START_REF] Ferrera | Modelli di Solidarietà[END_REF][START_REF] Ferrera | The 'Southern Model' of Welfare in Social Europe[END_REF] argued that Mediterranean countries constitute a separate welfare regime cluster, characterized by limited social insurance coverage, clientelism and familialism; [START_REF] Jones | The Pacific Challenge[END_REF] and [START_REF] Goodman | The East Asian Welfare State[END_REF] argued that East-Asian welfare states also form a cluster of their own [see also [START_REF] Esping-Andersen | Hybrid or Unique?: the Japanese Welfare State Between Europe and America[END_REF], [START_REF] Kwon | Beyond European Welfare Regimes[END_REF][START_REF] Kwon | Transforming the Developmental Welfare State in East Asia[END_REF] Lee and Ku (2007)]); 2. the (mis)-classification of specific countries (Scruggs andAllan 2006, Bambra 2006); and 3. the application of regime theory to other policy areas such as family policy, education and healthcare [START_REF] Lewis | Gender and the Development of Welfare Regimes[END_REF][START_REF] Bambra | The Worlds of Welfare: Illusory or Gender Blind?[END_REF][START_REF] Bambra | Cash Versus Services[END_REF][START_REF] Bambra | Defamilisation and Welfare State Regimes[END_REF][START_REF] Busemeyer | Education[END_REF][START_REF] Wendt | Mapping European Healthcare System[END_REF][START_REF] Reibling | Healthcare Systems in Europe[END_REF].

As mentioned in the introduction, none of these studies has either provided a dynamic temporal analysis of the evolution of welfare regimes over time, or a systematic integration of the workwelfare and the care-welfare nexi. Moreover, much of the debate was limited to the discussion about the external validity of Esping-Andersen's regime theory, i.e. the theory was not necessarily applicable in regions or policy areas that he had not included in his initial analysis.

At the methodological level previous analyses have employed descriptive statistics, cluster analysis and principal component analysis to test the regime classification of countries. Descriptive statistics have been employed in two ways, either replicating Esping-Andersen's decommodification index [START_REF] Bambra | The Worlds of Welfare: Illusory or Gender Blind?[END_REF][START_REF] Gal | Decommodification and Beyond[END_REF][START_REF] Bambra | Cash Versus Services[END_REF][START_REF] Bambra | Decommodification and the Worlds of Welfare Revisited[END_REF][START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Decommodification in 18 OECD Countries[END_REF] or classifying countries according to a two-dimensional double entry table [START_REF] Castles | Identifying Welfare State Regimes[END_REF][START_REF] Bonoli | Classifying Welfare States[END_REF][START_REF] Korpi | The Paradox of Redistribution and Strategies of Equality: Welfare State Institutions[END_REF][START_REF] Gallie | Welfare Regimes and the Experience of Unemployment in Europe[END_REF][START_REF] Goodin | Work and Welfare: Towards a Post-Productivist Welfare Regime[END_REF]). As suggested by [START_REF] Bambra | Decommodification and the Worlds of Welfare Revisited[END_REF] and [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Decommodification in 18 OECD Countries[END_REF], these models have three main technical limitations:

1. the increase of measurement errors due to the additive nature of the indices; 2. the creation in every case of a threefold/fourfold typology; and 3. the lack of consistency in the determination of the cut-off points used to classify countries.

In order to avoid the imposition of arbitrary cut-off points, cluster analysis has been used to replace descriptive statistics. Cluster analysis is a family of various algorithms, which group cases on the basis of a range of variables including the most similar cases into the same cluster. Three types of cluster analysis have been proposed within the welfare regime literature: 1. hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), which finds the closest pairs of cases and then by amalgamation combines other cases to form clusters; 2. k-means cluster analysis (KCA), which proceeds to the amalgamation of cases by starting from a fixed number of regimes determined by the researcher; and 3. HCA and KCA combined simultaneously.

The widespread use of HCA [START_REF] Kangas | The Politics of Social Security[END_REF][START_REF] Obinger | Politische Institutionen und Sozialpolitik in der Schweiz[END_REF]Wagschal 1998, 2001;[START_REF] Kautto | Investing in Services in West European Welfare States[END_REF][START_REF] Saint-Arnaud | Convergence or Resilience?[END_REF][START_REF] Powell | Welfare Regimes and the Welfare Mix[END_REF] has been criticised [START_REF] Gough | Social Assistance Regimes[END_REF] for its inductive approach, in that it does not a priori take into account the theoretical framework proposed by Esping-Andersen [START_REF] Gough | Social Assistance Regimes[END_REF]. To overcome this problem, [START_REF] Gough | Social Assistance Regimes[END_REF] has suggested using KCA, while [START_REF] Castles | World, Families, Regimes[END_REF] suggest the integration of HCA and KCA. Despite these methodological innovations in comparative welfare state analyses, these methods cannot fully overcome the shortcomings manifest in descriptive statistics, i.e. there are standardization issues, the analysis is unstable (using different algorithms produce different results), and the models are static [START_REF] Shalev | The Privatization of Social Policy[END_REF][START_REF] Shalev | Limits and Alternatives to Multiple Regression in Comparative Research[END_REF].

Hence, it has been proposed that Principal Component Analysis 2 (PCA) may be a more suitable technique to explore welfare typologies [START_REF] Shalev | The Privatization of Social Policy[END_REF][START_REF] Shalev | Limits and Alternatives to Multiple Regression in Comparative Research[END_REF][START_REF] Wildeboer Shut | On Worlds of Welfare[END_REF][START_REF] Soede | Unequal Welfare States[END_REF][START_REF] Vrooman | Rules of Relief[END_REF][START_REF] Schröder | Integrating Welfare and Production Typologies[END_REF]. This is because PCA is:

1. parsimonious (reducing a large number of indicators/policy domains into two or more dimensions); and 2. able to place welfare state regimes into a continuous space. PCA allows researchers to identify hybrid cases and determine which indicators contribute most significantly to the different positions of regimes within the space.

However, the variables used in the welfare state literature are often non-normally distributed and PCA is not well suited for the analysis of such data [START_REF] Jollife | Principal Component Analysis[END_REF]. For example, the distribution of waiting periods in unemployment insurance programmes is extremely spiky and skewed (see figure A1*). Considering such distributions PCA models are not necessarily well suited for analyzing large parts of the data used in the welfare regime literature. In order to deal with this problem we employ MCA, which possesses similar advantages as PCA over other statistical procedures, but in addition more readily allows the recoding of spiky continuous variables into more uniform categories for analysis.

Method and Data

Multiple Correspondence Analysis and welfare regimes

MCA was pioneered by [START_REF] Bourdieu | La Distinction. Critique Sociale du Jugement[END_REF] to map different types of individual consumption preferences onto a continuous space without resorting to predictive techniques (Le Roux and Rouanet 2010). It is a method that simultaneously associates variables (in our case the categorical variables that define decommodification and defamilialization) and cases (the 18 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] included in this study). Hence, if countries within a dataset have particular characteristics represented by categorical variables A, B and C coded into low, medium and high, then the corresponding categories within A, B and C can be plotted onto a two-dimensional space (see figure 1).

2 Other interesting attempts to classify welfare regimes in a multidimensional space have proposed using fuzzy-set technique [START_REF] Kvist | Fuzzy Set Ideal Type Analysis[END_REF][START_REF] Vis | States of Welfare or States of Workfare?[END_REF]Hudson andKühner 2009, 2012). * For figures A1-A5, please refer to Appendix. Countries and categories are said to occupy a joint space, thus it is possible to interpret the 'category plot' (see figures A2, A3, A4 and A5*) and then position each country onto the same space (see figures 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7). For example, assume a dataset has three categorical variables: A (the replacement rate of unemployment insurance), B (the duration of unemployment insurance) and C (the replacement rate of parental leave) and all are coded 'low', 'medium' or 'high' (the categories for each variable). MCA jointly considers countries and categorical variables in the space. Now, suppose that a country within the data scores as follows: High A, Middle B, and High C. This means the country displays a 'high' replacement rate for unemployment and parental leave and a 'medium' duration of the unemployment insurance. By triangulation the country can be placed within the category plot as shown in the figure. Furthermore, by using longitudinal data we are also able to plot countries over time as the categorical variables shift temporally. Finally, a measure of how well the data fit the model is given by the percentage of variance explained. Because the method is not probabilistic there is no requirement for a large dataset or a random sample (Le Roux and Rouanet 2010). On this methodological basis, we adapted MCA [START_REF] Bourdieu | La Distinction. Critique Sociale du Jugement[END_REF] to welfare regime theory and our research questions in three steps:

1. We recoded all continuous, count and ordinal variables into quartiles before estimating the model in order to avoid the problems associated with poorly distributed variables. 2. We interpreted the Cartesian spaces emerging from the cloud of indicators and the position of each country in accordance to welfare regime theory (see figures A2, A3, A4 and A5*), rather than the axes. 3. Lastly, we plotted average scores for different time periods and the 18 OECD countries included in our analysis, allowing us to identify country and regime dynamics across time and space (according to the decommodification and defamilialization concepts). In this way, the trajectory of each country is easy to interpret because the characteristics of the spaces identified by the category plot remain the same over time. Although not ideal, our temporal analysis is based on averages for various decades, as these were said to be characterized by different dynamics: the 1970s saw the end of the trente glorieuses of welfare state expansion; the 1980s were largely characterized by fiscal consolidation and limited retrenchment, whereas we are increasingly witnesses of processes of adaptation and recalibration since the 1990s (cf. [START_REF] Pierson | Coping with Permanent Austerity[END_REF]. Furthermore, our periodization into decades follows Sabatier's argument (1988), whereby it is necessary to consider a minimum period of ten years in order to be able to identify significant policy shifts. 3 This methodological approach constitutes an improvement 3 We have also tried different periodisations, including five-year periods; however, the differences compared to the previous literature, which has either employed a very static analysis or focused on few data points (see the second section).

The indicators

Following Esping- [START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism[END_REF][START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies[END_REF] we employ the concepts of decommodification and defamilialization (Esping-Andersen 1990, 1999) 4 . 'Decommodification refers to the degree to which individuals, or families can uphold a socially acceptable standard of living independently of market participation' (Esping-Andersen 1990: 47). The decommodification potential of a country is determined by the sum of the scores for universalism and the generosity (based on eligibility rules and replacements rates) of social protection programmes in the domains of 'old' social risks, covering unemployment, sickness and old age (Esping-Andersen 1990: 47; for a list of the indicators used for each model, see table 1). In theory, coverage, qualifying and waiting periods measure the degree of universalism of social transfer programmes, whereas replacement rates and duration capture the generosity of the cash transfer. Since we follow Esping-Andersen's measurement of decommodification for compared to the models presented were negligible. 4 Due to limited availability of indicators relating to social stratification for the time period included in our analysis we refrained from using them. [START_REF] Scruggs | Social Stratification and Welfare Regimes for the Twenty-first Century[END_REF] revisited Esping-Andersen's social stratification index only for two relatively short periods of time. Conceptually, Esping-Andersen (1990) also used the concept of welfare mix to classify countries without proposing a precise set of indicators (for an empirical measurement, see [START_REF] Powell | Welfare Regimes and the Welfare Mix[END_REF]). the average production worker (APW), our analysis is largely limited to the social protection of 'insiders', without taking into account lower levels of protection for 'outsiders' (cf. [START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | Shifting the Public-Private Mix: A New Dualization of Welfare[END_REF]. Theoretically, there are two ways to overcome this limitation, by using micro simulation data or micro panel data. However, there is no readily available dataset for the 18 OECD countries and the time period included in this analysis.

Taking up Lewis' (1992) criticism, whereby the care-welfare nexus constitutes an integral part of any welfare arrangement, Esping-Andersen (1999) included defamilialization into his static model and argued that the theory of the three worlds of welfare capitalism would still hold. Defamilialization captures the degree of familialism within a welfare state, measuring 'policies that lessen individuals' reliance on the family; that maximize individuals' command of economic resources independently of familial or conjugal reciprocities' (Esping-Andersen 1999: 45). However, despite the importance of path dependence it cannot be assumed that policies, including family policies, remain stable over long periods of time. Moreover, various scholars (e.g. [START_REF] Lewis | Work/Family Balance Policies in the UK since 1997: A New Departure[END_REF][START_REF] Fleckenstein | Business, skills and the welfare state: the political economy of employment-oriented family policy in Britain and Germany[END_REF][START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | Between Reforms and Birth Rates: Germany, Japan, and Family Policy Discourse[END_REF] have argued that family policy has not only moved centre-stage in policy debates, but has undergone significant change in many countries, including those previously categorized by a strong male breadwinner model [START_REF] Daly | What Adult Worker Model? A Critical Look at Recent Social Policy Reform in Europe from a Gender and Family Perspective[END_REF]. A shortcoming of these studies, however, is that they were either based on case studies or very small-n comparisons, which severely restricts their generalizability.

Following [START_REF] Lewis | Employment and Care: the Policy Problem, Gender Equality and the Issue of Choice[END_REF] we have included the dimensions of benefits, services and time into our analysis. To capture the generosity of family transfer benefits we have considered a variable for the Jpn3 Ger2

Ita4 Bel3 Ita3 Jpn4

CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC Den4

Low-medium comprehensive childcare services and short-medium duration of leave

-2 -1 1 2 -2 -1 Swe4 Nor4 Aut4 Fin4 Fin3 Fra4 Fra3 Aut3 Nzl3 Swi4 1 Nor2 2 0 dim 2 dim1 Ire3
level of 'child allowances' into our model. The other two dimensions are much harder to measure. Due to the lack of internationally comparable longitudinal datasets for childcare provision, we have used a proxy measurement, derived from the OECD public social expenditure data for family services (OECD Social Expenditure Dataset [OECD 2010]). More specifically, our proxy is calculated as the expenditure for family services per child aged five and below (as a percentage of GDP). Despite using this proxy, we are unable to take into account important variables that measure the quality and generosity (including opening hours and out of pocket costs) of childcare arrangements. Lastly, we have relied on the updated 'Comparative Family Policy Database' [START_REF] Gauthier | Comparative Family Policy Database[END_REF] for our variables relating to time, i.e. the various leave provisions (for a complete list of the variables included in our Model 2, see table 1). Due to limitations of data availability relating to childcare services we were unable to include the 1970s in our analysis and had to limit our study to the period from 1980 to 2008. To summarize, in order to answer our substantive research question of welfare state regime continuity and change we estimate four different models:

1.

A test of Esping-Andersen's welfare regime theory based on the decommodification concept.

2.

An integrated analysis of unemployment protection and family policies; following the criticism that it might be more fruitful to analyze welfare state stability or change by scrutinizing single programmes or policy packages (see [START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | The Development of Social Assistance and Unemployment Insurance in Germany and Japan[END_REF][START_REF] Kasza | The Illusion of Welfare Regimes[END_REF].

Medium-high replacement rates, medium long duration

Bel2

RADICALS

Aus2

Nor4

SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC Nor3

Fra4 Den2

Low replacement rate, short qualifying period

Nor2 Swe4

Uk2

CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC Ire3 Uk3 Us2 Uk4 Swe3 Swi2 Fin3 Ger2 Fin2 Us4

LIBERALS Ger3

Ger4 Jpn2

High replacement rates, medium long duration

Jpn4 Aut3

Low Replacement rate, short duration, long qualifying period

-2 -1 1 2 -2 -1 1 2 dim 2 0 dim1 Aut2 Aut4 Aus2 Aus4 Ire2 Us3 Fin4 Fra2 Ita2 Jpn3
In figure 2 Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands are located in the bottom left quadrant; these countries can be considered Social-Democratic welfare states, as they have a high level of universalism and generous cash transfers (for the interpretation of each space see figure A2*). On the left of the horizontal axis we find Austria, Germany and Belgium, which can be considered Christian-Democratic countries, as they display a medium degree of universalism and an intermediate level of generosity for cash transfers.

At the top of the vertical axis we find Japan, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, the USA, and the UK, which can be considered Liberal welfare states with a low degree of universalism and 'lean' cash transfers. This group is the most heterogeneous; however, Italy, Switzerland, Canada and Japan are clearly closer to the Christian-Democratic countries than the Anglo-Saxon Liberal countries. In qualitative research Italy has been classified as part of the Mediterranean regime [START_REF] Leibfried | Towards a European Welfare State[END_REF][START_REF] Ferrera | Modelli di Solidarietà[END_REF][START_REF] Bonoli | Classifying Welfare States[END_REF], due to its comparatively limited and dualistic social insurance system (see figure A2*). Switzerland has been classified either as Liberal or as Christian-Democratic, as argued by [START_REF] Obinger | Politische Institutionen und Sozialpolitik in der Schweiz[END_REF]. The positioning of Switzerland among the Liberals does not exclude the presence of Christian-Democratic characteristics, i.e. the level of the replacement rate for standard pensioners. Canada has been traditionally classified as belonging to the Liberal cluster; however, Canada displays more generous replacement rates for unemployment and old age pensions than the USA (the differences between the US-American and the Canadian welfare states have been well documented by [START_REF] Myles | How to Design a 'Liberal' Welfare State: a Comparison of Canada and the United States[END_REF]). Japan has often been classified as a hybrid (i.e. Esping-Andersen 1997) and hence not surprisingly the MCA shows that Japan has an overall profile very similar to Liberal countries, however, with some features very close to those found in countries belonging to the Christian Democratic regime, e.g. the replacement rate for standard pensioners (see figure A2*).

To the right of the horizontal axis we find New Zealand and Australia, countries that have been characterized as Radical welfare states by [START_REF] Castles | Identifying Welfare State Regimes[END_REF]. These countries have a system of reverse means-testing and thus can be considered as having a higher degree of universalism. Finally, France and Finland are somewhat hybrid. France is located between the Social-Democratic and the Christian-Democratic regimes and Finland is close to the Social-Democratic regime without being fully incorporated.

To summarize, the MCA model suggests the existence of four distinct worlds of welfare: the Social-Democratic welfare states (Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands), the Christian-Democratic welfare states (Austria, Germany and Belgium), the Liberal welfare states (Japan, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, the USA and the UK) and the Radical welfare states (Australia and New Zealand). This classification suggests six differences to Esping-Andersen's initial regime classification, the most important being that Australia and New Zealand belong to a separate Radical rather than to the Liberal world (confirming [START_REF] Castles | Identifying Welfare State Regimes[END_REF]. Furthermore, whereas Italy and Switzerland tend to belong to the Liberal rather than the Christian-Democratic world (confirming Bambra 2006), Austria and Belgium seem to belong to the Christian-Democratic rather than to the Social-Democratic world, confirming [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Decommodification in 18 OECD Countries[END_REF].

Assessing welfare regime stability over time

From an empirical point of view [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Decommodification in 18 OECD Countries[END_REF] have argued that regime theory has been employed in a static fashion, as Esping-Andersen's regime types were based on an analysis of a historical snapshot at a certain point in time. Furthermore, a variety of scholars have suggested a transformation of the welfare state highlighting various degrees of 'retrenchment' and/or 'recalibration', whereas others have underlined welfare state 'resilience' [START_REF] Clayton | Welfare State Retrenchment Revisited[END_REF][START_REF] Jessop | Toward a Schumpeterian Workfare State?[END_REF][START_REF] Pierson | The New Politics of the Welfare State[END_REF][START_REF] Pierson | Coping with Permanent Austerity[END_REF][START_REF] Starke | The Politics of the Welfare State Retrenchment: a Literature Review[END_REF][START_REF] Taylor-Gooby | The Silver Age of the Welfare State Perspectives on Resilience[END_REF]. Following this debate we propose a dynamic approach to welfare regime theory; our analysis is based on average scores for three decades for each of the 18 OECD countries (see figure 3).

In contrast to the literature highlighting radical welfare state change our results show a remarkable stability of welfare regimes over time (see figure 3). Of the 18 OECD countries only Finland, Norway and the UK have moved substantially in the 1980s, compared to the 1970s. At the end of the 1970s, Finland and Norway shifted from the Liberal to the Social-Democratic world. These movements are not surprising, as it is generally acknowledged that Finland and Norway were Social-Democratic latecomers that consolidated the welfare state in the 1980s [START_REF] Kuhnle | The Nordic Model: Ambiguous, but Useful Concept[END_REF]. The UK has clearly moved towards the American prototype of welfare state Liberalism, without changing regime. This shift can be explained by the policies of the Thatcher era, which led to a significant reduction of replacement rates -a development not reversed by subsequent Labour governments [START_REF] Toynbee | Better or Worse? Has Labour Delivered[END_REF][START_REF] Powell | Modernising the Welfare State[END_REF]). However, it has to be emphasized that the overall picture is one of stability.

Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge that despite measuring overall stability major shifts may have taken place in countries that cannot be identified in our macro-comparative analysis for three reasons. First, due to the very high 'level of abstraction', only the most dramatic shifts can be captured through this kind of analysis. Second, the overall stability of welfare regimes might be partially driven by the continued impact of past pension policies. The scores used in the model reflect the generosity for current pensioners, who accrued their pension rights during the 'golden welfare state era'. For various reasons this group has been less affected by more recent pension reforms, compared to significant pension retrenchment for future pensioners in a number of OECD countries [START_REF] Hinrichs | Elephants on the Move. Patterns of Public Pension Reform in OECD Countries[END_REF]. Third, reforms in the various programmes might point in different directions and thereby cancel out the reforms in specific programmes.

Furthermore, taking into account the emergence of 'new' social risks [START_REF] Bonoli | The Politics of the New Social Policies[END_REF][START_REF] Taylor-Gooby | New Risks[END_REF] and the fact that reformed unemployment protection and family policies, unlike sickness and pension benefits, constitute a core element in recently highlighted activation and social investment strategies for future generations [START_REF] Morel | Toward a Social Investment Welfare State[END_REF][START_REF] Häusermann | The Politics of Employment Friendly Welfare Reforms in Post-Industrial Economies[END_REF]; we theoretically could be witnesses of major policy changes that cannot be identified by Model 1.

Assessing the evolution of unemployment protection and family policy

In what follows we focus exclusively on unemployment protection and family policy. Our classification of 18 OECD countries in Model 2 (see figure 4) explains 63.15 per cent of the variance of the generosity of unemployment protection and family policy. Once again the spaces occupied by the various countries can be closely related to regime theory (for the interpretation of the spaces, see figure A3*). In the bottom left quadrant we find Sweden, Denmark, Norway and France. These Nordic countries and France score highly on family policy generosity and the degree of universalism for the unemployed. Closely located to this Social-Democratic space are Switzerland, Belgium and Canada. [START_REF] Bambra | Decommodification and the Worlds of Welfare Revisited[END_REF] as well as [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Decommodification in 18 OECD Countries[END_REF] have emphasized that Switzerland and Belgium share some of the characteristics of Social-Democratic countries, i.e. the generous replacement rate for family leaves. Also Canada is closer to the Social-Democratic than the Liberal space, due to its generosity of unemployment protection.

The top left quadrant is occupied by Finland, Germany and the Netherlands; these countries display quite generous family policy and have a medium-high degree of conditionality for unemployment protection. Although the distance of Austria and Italy to the core Christian-Democratic countries seems to be far, they share many of their characteristics. Their distant position from the other Christian-Democratic countries is mainly explained by the long qualifying periods for unemployment insurance in the case of Austria and the short duration of unemployment protection in the case of Italy. Prima facie it might come as a surprise to find Finland and the Netherlands in the Christian-Democratic space. However, as is well known from the literature, the Netherlands traditionally has had a very strong-male breadwinner model and including that perspective could thus be considered a Christian-Democratic welfare state (cf. [START_REF] Lewis | Patterns of paid and unpaid work in Western Europe: gender, commodification, preferences and the implications for policy[END_REF][START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | Party Politics and Social Welfare[END_REF].

Finland is situated at the 'border' of the Christian-Democratic and Social-Democratic space. As shown in figures 5 and 6, Finland clearly belongs to the Social-Democratic universe with respect to family policy, whilst the institutional arrangements for unemployment protection remain close to the Christian-Democratic space. The space at the bottom right of figure 4 includes Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Ireland and the USA. In contrast to Model 1, the Radicals are very closely located to the Liberals. These countries are characterized by a low generosity of family policy and a medium degree of conditionality regarding unemployment protection. Conditionality is higher in the USA, the UK and Ireland, while New Zealand and Australia offer more universal access. The 'outlying' position of Japan between the Liberal and the Christian Democratic space clearly highlights its seeming 'uniqueness' [START_REF] Takahashi | The Emergence of Welfare Society in Japan[END_REF].

Analyzing the dynamics of family and labour market policy for each decade, the picture of regime stability weakens significantly (see figure 5).

With a very few exceptions, family policy (Model 3)5 has undergone significant changes -(see figure 6) we are indeed witnesses of a revolution, although perhaps an incomplete one [START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Incomplete Revolution[END_REF]. This whole process can be characterized as a 'socialization' of family policy, which in the past very often has been associated with Sweden. This 'socialization' encompasses a process towards family policies featuring comprehensive childcare services and long leave entitlements with high replacement rates (for the interpretation of the spaces, see figure A4*). Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and Canada do not seem to follow the trend towards these services and Denmark and the Netherlands seem to move counter to the overall trend. This counterintuitive finding, especially as Denmark is often characterized as the country with the most generous family policy (cf. Esping-Andersen 2009), can be explained by the fact that Gauthier's family dataset only includes data for the replacement rate of leave policies provided directly by the state without considering the contribution of employers, often arranged through collective bargaining agreements. Denmark and the Netherlands have relatively high 'real' replacements rates, if occupational leave policies are included [START_REF] Rostgaard | International Review of Leave Policies and Related Research[END_REF][START_REF] Groenendijk | The Netherlands[END_REF].

Model 46 (see figure 7) shows the historical development of unemployment protection from 1980 to 2008. According to this model the overwhelming majority of countries reduce the level of cash transfers for unemployment (for the interpretation of the spaces, see figure A5*), While some countries, such as Denmark, which is internationally known for its flexicurity approach [START_REF] Madsen | The Danish model of 'flexicurity[END_REF], have reduced the level of conditionality, other countries, such as Germany and Italy, have significantly increased the conditionality of unemployment protection, leading to increased social protection dualism [START_REF] Seeleib-Kaiser | Shifting the Public-Private Mix: A New Dualization of Welfare[END_REF].

Considering the development of family and unemployment protection policy we seem to observe a 'dual transformation of the welfare state', as highlighted for the German case by [START_REF] Bleses | The Dual Transformation of the German Welfare State[END_REF]. Considering the starting points of the various countries the changes in family policy have indeed been remarkable and are grosso modo in line with many of the demands made by feminist scholars many decades ago [START_REF] Sassoon | Women and the State[END_REF].

Conclusion

By using the same indicators as those employed by [START_REF] Esping-Andersen | The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism[END_REF] we can delineate four distinct worlds of welfare that are relatively stable over time: the Social-Democratic, Christian-Democratic, Liberal and Radical worlds. Overall, we identify six differences compared to Esping-Andersen's initial findings: Australia and New Zealand form a world of their own, confirming [START_REF] Castles | Identifying Welfare State Regimes[END_REF]; Italy and Switzerland can be classified as Liberal rather than the Christian-Democratic (confirming Bambra 2006), while Austria and Belgium belong to the Christian-Democratic rather than to the Social-Democratic world (confirming [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Decommodification in 18 OECD Countries[END_REF]. However, it has to be highlighted that Esping-Andersen identified 'ideal-types as a necessary prelude to further theorization' (Powell and Barrientos 2011: 70); hence, the identified differences do not disprove the general validity of his regime framework and the real worlds of welfare should not be confused with ideal-types.

However, the integrated analysis of unemployment protection and family policies suggests clear limits of the regime approach. Our findings indicate three worlds of welfare capitalism and a rather large number of countries (one third of the total) that are very difficult to clearly classify (Austria, Italy, Japan, Belgium, Canada and Switzerland). Moreover, the picture of policy stability weakens. Once the two policy domains of family policy and unemployment protection are analyzed separately the concept of welfare regimes does not seem to hold, supporting those who have suggested that it might be more helpful to analyze the various welfare programmes or arrangements separately. Furthermore, we witness significant policy change over time, which can clearly be interpreted as transformative, especially with regard to family policies.

At the methodological level we were able to show that MCA can overcome some of the shortcomings of various other methods previously used in the literature, by employing a more suitable treatment of variables with non-normal distributions and utilizing an innovative way to plot the evolution of countries over time. More specifically, MCA associates the position of each country with specific indicators by combining case and category plots. These plots allow a nuanced positioning of countries within a policy space and a more differentiated understanding of complex welfare state change and continuity.

Despite the substantive and methodological contributions, we did not address some important limitations identified in the comparative welfare regime literature, namely the focus on the average (production) worker [START_REF] Emmenegger | The Age of Dualization[END_REF][START_REF] Goodin | The Real Worlds of Welfare Capitalism[END_REF], the existence of a certain level of benefit conditionality which is not captured by the concepts of decommodification and defamilialization, the recent introduction of workfare measures and the more widespread use of negative income tax in social policy. In this respect further analysis is required at the macrocomparative level (cf. [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Generosity across Space and Time[END_REF][START_REF] Kvist | Fuzzy Set Ideal Type Analysis[END_REF]).

To sum-up: welfare regime theory can function as a heuristic device to classify institutional arrangements of welfare states at a very general and abstract level during the past three decades within the OECD world. However, this finding does not rule out the occurrence of significant, or even transformative, policy shifts, as shown for the domains of family policy and unemployment protection. By using MCA we can overcome the idiosyncratic analyses of individual country case and small-n studies and identify generalizable trends without having to fully sacrifice the complexity and multidimensionality of institutional welfare arrangements and their development over time.

  Figure 1Multiple Correspondence Analysis -a simplified example

Figure 2

 2 Figure 2 Multiple Correspondence Analysis decommodification 1971-1999 (Model 1)

Figure 3

 3 Figure 3 Multiple Correspondence Analysis decommodification over three decades, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s (Model 1)

Figure 4

 4 Figure 4 Multiple Correspondence Analysis unemployment protection and family policy 1980-2008 (Model 2)

Figure 5

 5 Figure 5 Multiple Correspondence Analysis unemployment protection and family policy over three decades,1980s, 1990s and 2000s (Model 2)

Figure 6

 6 Figure 6 Multiple Correspondence Analysis family policy over three decades,1980s, 1990s and 2000s (Model 3)

  Figure 7 Multiple Correspondence Analysis unemployment protection over three decades, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s (Model 4) Source: Authors' elaboration Note: Finland 2 represents the position of Finland in the 1980s, Finland 3 in the 1990s and Finland 4 in the 2000s and so forth for the other countries. For country abbreviations, see figure 2.

Figure

  Figure 2A. Category Plot: Interpretation MCA Decommodification 1971-1999 (Model 1)

  Figure 3A. Category plot: Interpretation MCA Unemployment Protection and Family Policy 1980-2008 (Model 2)

Figure

  Figure 4A. Category Plot: Interpretation MCA Family Policy 1980s, 1990s, 2000s (Model 3)

Figure

  Figure 5A. Category Plot: Interpretation MCA Unemployment Protection 1980s, 1990s, 2000s (Model 4)

  Minimum pension single person replacement rate Nsp: Standard pension single replacement rate Nspc: Standard pension couple replacement rate Npqual: Pension qualifying period Npfund: Pension funding (employee to employer ratio) Npcov: coverage (pension)

	nue/nmpc	nuequal/nspc
	nuewait/nsickcov	nuedur/npcov
	nuef	nuecov
	nsick	nsickqual
	nsickwait	nsickdur
	nmp	nsp
	npqual	npfund
	nsickf
	Employment
	Nue: replacement rate unemployment (APW)
	Nuef: replacement rate unemployment (family)
	Nuewait: waiting period unemployment
	Nuequal: qualifying period (unemployment insurance)
	Nuedur: duration period (unemployment insurance)
	Nuecov: coverage (unemployment)
	Sickness
	Nsick: replacement rate sickness (APW)
	Nsickf: replacement rate sickness (family)
	Nsickwait: waiting period sickness
	Nsickqual: qualifying period sickness
	Nsickdur: duration period (sickness)
	Nsickcov: sickness (coverage)
	Pension
	Nmpc: Minimum pension couple replacement rate
	Nmp:
	Note: 1= Lowest quartile; 4= top quartile.
	Source: Authors' elaboration.

In a recent book[START_REF] Wendt | Welfare States and Public Opinion[END_REF] have analysed typologies with a focus on public opinion.

Model 3 explains 85.63 per cent of the variance (see table 1).

Model 4 explains

74.68 per cent of the variance (see table1).

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by an ESRC grant (RES-239-25-0029) for the project: Integrating Macro and Micro Perspectives in Cross-National Comparison: Dynamic Policy Structures and Individual Outcomes.

We estimate two separate models for: 3. family policy; and 4. unemployment protection.

The data employed in our work are derived from the 'Welfare State Entitlement Dataset' [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Entitlements Data Set: A Comparative Institutional Analysis of Eighteen Welfare States[END_REF], which has been updated for the unemployment insurance variables for the time period from 2000 to 2008, the 'Comparative Family Policy Database' [START_REF] Gauthier | Comparative Family Policy Database[END_REF]) and the 'OECD Social Expenditure Dataset' (OECD 2010).

Discussion

The first empirical model (see figures 2 and 3), employing a temporal approach to analyzing the concept of decommodification over three decades, addresses the research question of overall regime stability and change at a very high level of abstraction. The other three empirical models (see figures 4, 5, 6 and 7) address the question of stability and change within a more narrow and focused design of only considering unemployment protection and the generosity of family policy jointly and separately.

Assessing Esping-Andersen's decommodification classification with Multiple Correspondence Analysis

Taking a longitudinal approach for the period from 1971 to 1999, we analyzed the decommodification potential of 18 OECD countries using the measurement suggested by Esping-Andersen (1990) based on coverage, replacement rates, qualifying and waiting periods as well as duration for unemployment, sickness and pension benefits (see table 1). Our Model 1 (see table 1) explains 54 per cent of the variance using these indicators. Source: author's elaboration after [START_REF] Scruggs | Welfare State Entitlements Data Set: A Comparative Institutional Analysis of Eighteen Welfare States[END_REF].