Introduction

The primary objective of this document is to identify and explore the major environmental and livelihood problems (impacts) at the study sites, with special regard to those problems that are going to be dealt with within the WETwin project. Exploring problems involves the identification of the whole cause-effect mechanism from Drivers through State, to the Impacts. This document also aims at reviewing potential measures (Responses) proposed by various stakeholders and researchers, for mitigating the problems. Relationships between Drivers, State, Impact and Responses have been analysed with the help of the DSIR methodology. DSIR supports the establishment of cause-effect relationships behind a given problem, and helps in screening measures with which the problem can be solved. In WETwin 'Impacts' are interpreted as impacts on the Ecosystem Services of the wetland. Accordingly, DSIR analyses are preceded in this document by the identification of relevant Ecosystem Services. Classification of Ecosystem Services is carried out according to the systems given in the MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) [START_REF] Finlayson | Ecosystems and human well-being: wetlands and water[END_REF] and TEEB (The Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity) (TEEB, 2010) projects.

Exploring cause-effect relationships contributes to Task 3.3: 'Qualitative description of natural status, drivers, pressures and functions', while screening measures supports Task 7.4: 'Identification of generic measures for improving wetland management' of the WETwin project [START_REF] Wetwin | [END_REF]. The temporal dimensions of components of the DSI chains will also be analysed. It will be specified whether a given driver, state or impact characterises the present state or(/and) will emerge in the future. This will be an important contribution to Task 5.1: 'Initial vulnerability assessment for each case study'. It is important to state that at the prediction of future states of the various DSI elements, it was assumed that the envisaged measures (responses) are not implemented. Finally certain DSIR analyses concern institutional and administrative problems, which are contributions to WP4.

Based on the DSI analyses, tradeoffs between ecosystem services have also been identified and presented in this report.

Adaptation of the Ecosystem Services approach

In the DSIR analyses, 'Impacts' are interpreted as impacts on the 'Ecosystem Services' of the wetland. Ecosystem Services are defined as the 'direct and indirect contributions of ecosystems to human well-being' (TEEB, 2010). The MEA and TEEB projects classify and describe Ecosystem Services in the following way:

Provisioning Services are ecosystem services that describe the material or energy outputs from ecosystems. They include food, water and other resources. TEEB icons: 1. Food: Ecosystems provide the conditions for growing food. Food comes principally from managed agro-ecosystems but marine and freshwater systems or forests also provide food for human consumption. Wild foods from forests are often underestimated. 2. Raw materials: Ecosystems provide a great diversity of materials for construction and fuel including wood, biofuels and plant oils that are directly derived from wild and cultivated plant species. 3. Fresh water: Ecosystems play a vital role in the global hydrological cycle, as they regulate the flow and purification of water. Vegetation and forests influence the quantity of water available locally. 4. Medicinal resources: Ecosystems and biodiversity provide many plants used as traditional medicines as well as providing the raw materials for the pharmaceutical industry. All ecosystems are a potential source of medicinal resources. Regulating Services are the services that ecosystems provide by acting as regulators eg regulating the quality of air and soil or by providing flood and disease control.

5. Local climate and air quality regulation: Trees provide shade whilst forests influence rainfall and water availability both locally and regionally. Trees or other plants also play an important role in regulating air quality by removing pollutants from the atmosphere. 6. Carbon sequestration and storage: Ecosystems regulate the global climate by storing and sequestering greenhouse gases. As trees and plants grow, they remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and effectively lock it away in their tissues. In this way forest ecosystems are carbon stores. Biodiversity also plays an important role by improving the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to the effects of climate change. 7. Moderation of extreme events: Extreme weather events or natural hazards include floods, storms, tsunamis, avalanches and landslides. Ecosystems and living organisms create buffers against natural disasters, thereby preventing possible damage. For example, wetlands can soak up flood water whilst trees can stabilize slopes. Coral reefs and mangroves help protect coastlines from storm damage. 8. Waste-water treatment: Ecosystems such as wetlands filter both human and animal waste and act as a natural buffer to the surrounding environment. Through the biological activity of microorganisms in the soil, most waste is broken down. Thereby pathogens (disease causing microbes) are eliminated, and the level of nutrients and pollution is reduced. 9. Erosion prevention and maintenance of soil fertility: Soil erosion is a key factor in the process of land degradation and desertification. Vegetation cover provides a vital regulating service by preventing soil erosion. Soil fertility is essential for plant growth and agriculture and wellfunctioning ecosystems supply the soil with nutrients required to support plant growth. 10. Pollination: Insects and wind pollinate plants and trees which is essential for the development of fruits, vegetables and seeds. Animal pollination is an ecosystem service mainly provided by insects but also by some birds and bats. Some 87 out of the 115 leading global food crops depend upon animal pollination including important cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. 11. Biological control: Ecosystems are important for regulating pests and vector borne diseases that attack plants, animals and people. Ecosystems regulate pests and diseases through the activities of predators and parasites. Birds, bats, flies, wasps, frogs and fungi all act as natural controls.

I

Habitat or Supporting Services underpin almost all other services. Ecosystems provide living spaces for plants or animals; they also maintain a diversity of different breeds of plants and animals.

12. Habitats for species: Habitats provide everything that an individual plant or animal needs to survive: food; water; and shelter. Each ecosystem provides different habitats that can be essential for a species' lifecycle. Migratory species including birds, fish, mammals and insects all depend upon different ecosystems during their movements. 13. Maintenance of genetic diversity: Genetic diversity is the variety of genes between and within species populations. Genetic diversity distinguishes different breeds or races from each other thus providing the basis for locally well-adapted cultivars and a gene pool for further developing commercial crops and livestock. Some habitats have an exceptionally high number of species which makes them more genetically diverse than others and are known as 'biodiversity hotspots'. Cultural Services include the non-material benefits people obtain from contact with ecosystems. They include aesthetic, spiritual and psychological benefits.

14. Recreation and mental and physical health: Walking and playing sports in green space is not only a good form of physical exercise but also lets people relax. The role that green space plays in maintaining mental and physical health is increasingly being recognized, despite difficulties of measurement. 15. Tourism: Ecosystems and biodiversity play an important role for many kinds of tourism which in turn provides considerable economic benefits and is a vital source of income for many countries. In 2008 global earnings from tourism summed up to US$ 944 billion (see Chapter 5). Cultural and eco-tourism can also educate people about the importance of biological diversity. 16. Aesthetic appreciation and inspiration for culture, art and design: Language, knowledge and the natural environment have been intimately related throughout human history. Biodiversity, ecosystems and natural landscapes have been the source of inspiration for much of our art, culture and increasingly for science. 17. Spiritual experience and sense of place: In many parts of the world natural features such as specific forests, caves or mountains are considered sacred or have a religious meaning.

Nature is a common element of all major religions and traditional knowledge, and associated customs are important for creating a sense of belonging.

Source: TEEB, 2010

The above described concept of Ecosystem Services has been adapted to the specific needs of the WETwin project. The major change we've made with regard to the original concept is that we've modified the definition. The new definition is that Ecosystem Services are direct and indirect contributions of ecosystems to the well-being of humans and Nature. By this we want to avoid the pitfall that we see in the original Ecosystem Service approach. This pitfall is that the original ES approach takes Ecosystem Services into consideration only through their usefulness from the point of view of human well-being. It doesn't recognise ecosystem health, biodiversity, key species, nature(!) etc. as standalone values that we have to safeguard. These values are especially important in case of wetlands, and it is often the case that they have to be defended even against the interests of human well-being.

Habitat Services play a key role in the concept, since they support and underpin the other services and also they are essential contributions to the well being of the nature. Accordingly Habitat Services are treated as a separate subset of Ecosystem Services in case of each case study.

Application of the Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses (DSIR) Scheme

The evolution of a natural system subject to anthropogenic pressure is generally described by the Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses (DSIR) scheme (Figure 2-1). This methodology is based on the DPSIR approach developed by the European Environment Agency (EEA), cf. OECD (1994), UNCSD (1996). The idea is that Drivers alter the State of the system, and this alteration represents an Impact, i.e., an effect upon the environment and society (Becker, 2005). When the society is affected in an unfavourable way, it reacts by devising and implementing Responses that can target either the Drivers, the State, or directly the undesired or threatening Impacts, so that they are avoided, reduced, or compensated (Becker, 2005). This is represented in a simplified way in the DSIR scheme: An example prepared by Soncini-Sessa 2005 might be useful to further explain the methodology. Consider an idyllic lake, surrounded by grasslands, forests, a town inhabited by fishermen and small hotels used mainly by tourists. The baseline Drivers are the agricultural, industrial and civil practices producing nutrient (in particular, Nitrogen) flows (direct Drivers) reaching the lake via the surface or subsurface runoff from rural and agricultural land or from the urban drainage flows. The result of this is an undesired change of the State of the lake in terms of an increase of the trophic level of the lake that may lead to algal bloom, anoxic conditions or fish depletion. The change of State will ultimately result in Impacts such as a decrease of the fishing business and a loss of potential for local tourism.

To react to the discontent of fishermen and hotel owners, the Environmental Agency (EA) plans an intervention (Response). A Project is established to choose the response between different options such as: to issue a set of regulations about the usage of manure in the farming practice (responses targeting the baseline Drivers), to build a stage for the nitrogen removal within the waste water treatment plant for the upstream discharge (targeting the direct Drivers), to harvest the algae when necessary or to insufflate air at the bottom of the lake to prevent anoxic condition of the water (targeting the State), or simply to adopt a monetary compensation (targeting the Impacts) for the damage and associated economic losses.

For the WETwin project elements of DSIR are defined in the following way: Sources: Berthe & [START_REF] Kone | Wetlands and Sanitation -A View from Africa[END_REF]Kuper et al., 2003;Oyebande et al., 2002;[START_REF] Zwarts | The Niger, a lifeline. Effective water management of the Upper Niger Basin[END_REF] As a result of decreased flood levels, the sizes of bourgou fields (Echinochloa stagnina) and flood forests have decreased.

The Fomi dam is expected to reduce the extent of floating bourgou fields by 62% relative to the present situation.

Impact on fish stock and on revenues for fishermen

Inner Niger Delta

According to fishermen fish catches have significantly reduced in size in the last 30 to 40 years. Fish trade in the IND would be 6% higher in the absence of the Office du Niger and an additional 13% higher without Sélingué.

Analysis predicts that current fish trade will be reduced by 37% if the Fomi dam is constructed.

Impact on rice production and on farm revenues

Inner Niger Delta

Farmers on average produce 4300 tonnes less (4.9%) floating rice as a result of Sélingué. Without Office du Niger, floating rice production in the Delta would be 8900 tonnes greater (10.4%) (In contrast to decreasing rice production in the Delta, rice production at the upstream irrigation fields (OdN) has increased significantly)

The Fomi dam would significantly reduce food security in the Delta by decreasing rice production with 34500 tonnes (40%).

Impact on livestock Inner Niger Delta

The size of livestock has been decreased due to the degradation of the pastures (overgrazing) and the bourgou Livestock will likely be damaged further These values are all bellow the drinking water limits of the WHO (50 mg/l for nitrate, 3 mg/l (short term exposure) and 0.2 mg/l (long term exposure) for nitrite)

Impact

Polluted waters used for drinking and bathing purposes

Settlements in the IND

WQ data of surface waters used for drinking and bathing purposes in the IND

The current situation will improve because of many projects and programs intervening on these issues. During the hot season (April to June), there is a resurgence of cholera, particularly, in the Mopti Region, which is most dependent on the Niger River.

The national prevalence rate of diarrhoea is 19% among children under 5 years, and 29% among children aged 6-11 months. The correlation between the access to safe drinking water and the instances of diarrhoea is indicated by the fact that 14% of children living in households with access to tap water contracted the disease compared to 27% of children living in households using water from backwaters.

The current situation has already and will continue to improve because of the national program on: each Malian village must at least an improved drilling or improved boreholes. Mosquitos are present all over the IND, even though Anopheles are likely to be concentrated around the irrigated rice fields as malaria cases have been reported from these regions first of all. Malaria is not a significant threat for people living far away from the irrigation schemes (e.g. in Mopti) Snails, intermediary hosts of Schistosomiasis, are present all over irrigated rice field zones.

Without more prevention measures, they will continue to cause more mortality and morbidity.

Impacts on Vector-borne diseases: Increasing instances of

Malaria and Schistosomiasis

Settlements in the vicinity of Office du Niger

Malaria is the main cause of general morbidity and mortality in Mali among children under five years of age. Among children aged 0-5 years, 80-90% may carry the malaria parasite during the rainy season.

Regarding Schistosomiasis, it is estimated that 2.5 million people in Mali are infested. 93.3% of the villages in the Office du Niger and 66.7% of the riparian population of the River Niger have at least 51% of their children infected by S.

haematoblum, which is the most widespread of the Schistosomiasis. The need for navigation, the volumes of transported freight as well as the need for flood safety and renewable energy keep on growing

It is expected that freight transportation on the Danube will increase up to the level of the Rhine. Demand for renewable energy will be increasing further.

River regulation and barrage constructions on the Danube

Reach of the Danube from the Black Forest (Germany) to the Hungarian-Serbian border Meanders of the river have been cut short and the side arms have been closed. The main channel of the Danube has been stabilised with the help of stone structures. Several barrages were built on the German, Austrian and Slovakian reach of the river.

Navigation conditions along the Hungarian reach of the Danube is planned to be improved by dredging, constructing new groins and elongating the existing ones in the main channel.

It is also expected that few more barrages will be constructed in the upstream Danube.

River bed incision

Reach of the river Danube adjacent to the Gemenc floodplain.

River training has shortened and narrowed the river channel resulting in significant increase of water velocities. Due to the barrages (that withhold the sediment in their reservoirs) the sediment transport deficit of the downstream reaches has increased. These all finally led to the degradation of the riverbed.

Incision will continue in the future as well and will even be enhanced if the planned river training measures will be implemented.

Aggradation of the floodplain surface

The Gemenc floodplain Each flood of the Danube deposits fine suspended sediment on the surface of the floodplain. In addition the beds of the water bodies are exposed to continuous biological sedimentation. River meandering had time-to-time undone these processes before the regulation of the river. However this dynamic equilibrium has been terminated by the stabilisation of the main channel, thus removing the obstacles from the way of aggradation.

As a result 3-6 m layer of clay and silt have already been deposited on the surface and 6-10 m in the beds of the floodplain during the last 200 years.

Aggradation of the surface and the beds of the floodplain will continue in the future as well.

I The desiccation process will proceed in the future as well. Within 50-100 years the water bodies of the Gemenc floodplain will completely disappear.

Impacts

Impact on Ecosystem Health

The Gemenc floodplain and the adjacent Danube reach

The fish stock and the sizes of other aquatic, semiaquatic communities have been decreased considerable, due to the destruction of aquatic habitats. The reduced hydrological connectivity has worsened the lateral migration conditions, which has resulted in decreased access for river fish to spawning and feeding grounds.

Land-water ecotones have also decreased a lot resulting in the destruction of communities living in these important wetland habitats.

Further destruction of wetland habitats is expected due to the continuing desiccation process.

Impact on wood production

The Gemenc floodplain It seems that forestry has benefited from the desiccation process since the extent of forests has increased on the expense of wetland and water areas. On the other hand desiccation of forests has been observed on the higher grounds resulting in losses in wood.

The ongoing desiccation process will extend further the forest habitats toward the lower grounds of the floodplain. On the other hand the desiccation on the high grounds will proceed as well.

Impact on fisheries

The Gemenc floodplain and the adjacent Danube reach Thanks to the very rich fish stock of the Danube and its floodplains, fisheries were the primary land use activities on the Gemenc before the river training works. Today the role of fisheries and the amounts of fish catches are only small fractions of the ones before the training works.

It is expected that fish catches will decrease further due to the further destruction and deterioration of habitat and migration conditions.

Sources: AQUIFER, 2008; Kalocsa & Tamás, 2004;Tamás & Kalocsa, 2004;[START_REF] Tamás | A Duna hajózhatóságának javítása tárgyú projektet megalapozó tanulmány véleményezése[END_REF][START_REF] Vituki | [END_REF]

Habitats for birds Resident and migratory birds

There is a total of 81 different bird species (Man-Ging 1999).

Nonetheless, during the course of the project "Capacitacion Comunitaria/Local para el Desarrollo Ecoturistico de los parches de Bosques en Abras de Mantequilla", another 59 bird species were observed. From this pool, 13 were considered new species, Considering other initiatives a total of 100 species categorized in 40 families. From this total 15% correspond to endemic tumbesine region, 9% are presumed boreal migratory bird, 3% are considered austral migratory birds. From the species registered in the RAMSAR 2008 sheet, according to Ridgeli and Greenfield ( 2001) categorization, just 3 are considered rare, 22 uncommon, 25 common.

If the current trend continues, local biodiversity could be expected to suffer considerable loss unless proper measures are taken to alter these patterns

Habitats for fish

Resident fish stock of the AdM. Fish stock of rivers of the Los Ríos province using the AdM as spawning and nursery habitat

The RAMSAR 2008 sheet indicated that the water quality indexes for most of them reported 100% for NO3 and NH4. For PO4 the readings oscillated between 75% and 80%. For dissolved O2 the readings reported values above 80%. In all, the wetland system reports an acceptable water quality state for maintaining local bio-diversity. As matter of fact, these indexes reported an improvement from readings taken in June of 1981, which suggested an overall improvement in the site's condition.

The ictioplantonic composition of river Vinces is constituted by larva and young fish, with a density of 160 larvas/m 2 and 1194 young fish per m 2 just in Palenque and Vinces communities all (which represent around 12% and 88% of total biomass). Stationally, during the wet season the egg, "pre-larva" and larva presence in the zone is notisable. On the other hand, "pre-larva" and larva are practically non-existent during dry season, but fish eggs decrease dramatically. In Pallenque river, measurements shows 80 fish larva per m2 with similar morphological characteristics shown by the Vinces river. The importance of this wetland system flood regulation capacity was acknowledged by the RAMSAR convention. During raining season the wetland conglomerate known as "Abras de Mantequilla" is capable of storing up to 56000 m3 of tributary water inflow from rivers "Vinces", "Quevedo" and "Pueblo Viejo". This has a direct incidence in maintaining local climate balance.

According to projection and planning by CEDEGE, the hydrological system will be dramatically altered by massive dam construction projects upstream in the tributary and affluent rivers. This could severely hamper the flood regulation capacity and potential of the wetland. This role would then be assumed by the dam system to be constructed in the tributary basin. This wetland system periodically receives important discharges of clay and limo material from upstream rivers. The variation of the readings for pH levels ranged from 6.8 to7.3. This suggests a slight acidity in the sediment content, which could be result of oxidation of accumulated organic matter. Nonetheless, the RAMSAR 2008 sheet indicated that the water quality indexes reported a 100% for NO3 and NH4. For PO4 the readings oscillated between 75% and 80%. For dissolved O2 the readings reported values above 80%. In all, the wetland system reports an acceptable water quality state for maintaining local bio-diversity. As matter of fact, these indexes reported an improvement from readings taken in June of 1981, which suggested an overall improvement in the site's condition. During workshops, local stakeholder perception was fixed on the notion that the wetland does not provide this service. At the very least, they did not consider it relevant to their everyday life. The RAMSAR 2008 sheet indicated that the water quality indexes reported a 100% for NO3 and NH4. For PO4 the readings oscillated between 75% and 80%. For dissolved O2 the readings reported values above 80%. In all, the wetland system reports an acceptable water quality state for maintaining local bio-diversity. As matter of fact, these indexes reported an improvement from readings taken in June of 1981, which suggested an overall improvement in the site's condition. On his report on the conformation of "Abras de Mantequilla" commonwealth, [START_REF] Ladino | Various documents[END_REF] states that only the main parishes around the wetland have potable water service available, understanding this as the process of water filtering through chlorine.

The growth expectation for agricultural activity could be plausible as a hampering factor of the wetland's capacity to maintain its current thread of improving secure water storage capacity. Higher use of pesticides, herbicides and the occupation of riparian areas for agricultural use could be drivers for such an occurrence. According to projection and planning by CEDEGE, the hydrological system will be dramatically altered by massive dam construction projects upstream in the tributary and affluent rivers. This could directly impact the quantity and composition of the sedimentary material that inflows from upstream rivers, which in turn could unbalance current conditions and damage water quality in the wetland. On his report on the conformation of "Abras de Mantequilla" commonwealth, [START_REF] Ladino | Various documents[END_REF] states that only the main parishes around the wetland have potable water service available, understanding this as the process of water filtering through chlorine. These seems to justify that 66% percent of the households in the area report to assume some form of self-treatment (boiling/chlorine/filter/bottled water) on the water they consume.

During workshops, local stakeholders repeatedly prioritized the role of the wetland in provision of secure water and food (agriculture and fisheries)

During workshops, local stakeholder perception of the potential of the wetland to sustain its current capacity as a secure water source was not as good as their current perception. The main economic activities of the communities settled on the wetland are primarily related to agricultural activities, specially corn and rice crops, which are their main income source. According to the ECV 2006 26.93% of the total agricultural production in AdM uses organic fertilizers, 45.55% inorganic fertilizers and 56.59% pesticides. Local APUs state that they cultivate their rice crops using superficial well systems. In other words, when water resides, they exploit the exposed land surface to establish seasonal crops. In these new lands is where they use herbicides in order to raise their crops. The average APU produces in between 1364 and 2567 Kg of unprocessed rice and between 160 and 219 Kg of unprocessed corn. During workshops, local stakeholders stated their perception that the most important function of the wetland service provision capacity revolves around agriculture.

Incentives for agricultural expansion given by governmental and private organizations are likely to continue, which will effectively increase the number of Ha cultivated around the wetland. Population growth will also contribute to the expansion and diversification of crops, cultivated upstream of and around the wetland. In the future, local APUs project a conservative estimate of sowing around 10000 Ha which constitutes about half of the arable land for rice cropping in the wetland area. During workshops, local stakeholder perception of the potential of the wetland to sustain its current capacity to provide supporting services to agricultural activities was not as good as their current perception. The ictioplantonic composition of river Vinces is constituted by larva and young fish, with a density of 160 larvas/m 2 and 1194 young fish per m 2 just in Palenque and Vinces communities all (which represent around 12% and 88% of total biomass). Stationally, during the wet season the egg, "pre-larva" and larva presence in the zone is noticeable. On the other hand, "pre-larva" and larva are practically non-existent during dry season, but fish eggs decrease dramatically. In Pallenque river, measurements shows 80 fish larva per m 2 with similar morphological characteristics shown by the Vinces river.

If the current trend continues, local biodiversity could be expected to suffer considerable loss unless proper measures are taken to alter these patterns During workshops, local stakeholders showed a decreased interest in fisheries in respect to aquaculture in the wetland area. This responds to a perception of the need to introduce native fish species with this type of practice.

X

Aquaculture in AdM

Local consumption not at all During workshops, local stakeholders showed a decreased interest in fisheries in respec to aquaculture in the wetland area. This responds to a perception of the need to introduce native fish species with this type of practice. X X

Travel agency tourism Agencies outside the zone

There is no record of any of private travel agency directly involved in the area. Also, the role of the Ministry of Tourism in the area is practically null, since it is not yet recognized as a protected area, nor does it generate a significant flow of tourism up to date. There are isolated community initiatives, especially in the "El Recuerdo" precinct spawned from small investments on good use and management practices in wetland area, promoted by the Environment Ministry. The wetland Abras de Mantequilla is located within the jurisdiction of 3 municipalities: Vinces with an urban population of 31 738 and a rural population of 37 099 inhabitants and an annual growth rate of 1.6%. Baba with a population of 39 342 inhabitants, mostly located on rural areas, and an annual growth rate of 1.6%. Its population is very young, as 45.4% of its inhabitants are bellow 20 years of age. Pueblo Viejo with a population of 32 895 inhabitants, concentrated on rural areas, and an annual growth rate of 2.4%. Its population is very young, as 46.5% of its inhabitants are bellow 20 years of age. (Data taken from the Asociación de Municipalidades del Ecuador, 2008) In ten years, the population of Vinces will reach the population of approximately 80679 inhabitants. Baba will reach a population of approximately 46110 inhabitants and Pueblo Viejo a population of approximately 41700 inhabitants.

Increasing agriculture upstream of and around the wetland

AdM + Guayas basin upstream

The most important activity that the local populace does for a living is agriculture. Governmental and private organizations are giving incentives, in the form of financial credits, to promote the expansion of agricultural practices. Representatives of the Ministry of Environment pointed out that in the past, this area was used mostly for banana plantations, which was an endemic plant; but that this began to change with de division of the land provoked because of the growing number of families (banana plantations require large amounts of space to remain lucrative). People started to diversify their crops without careful planning and nowadays, maize and rice are mostly planted. According to the ECV INEC-2006, 26.93% of the total agricultural production in the AdM utilizes organic fertilizers, 45.55% inorganic fertilizers and 56.59% pesticides.

Incentives

for agricultural expansion given by Governmental and private organizations are likely to continue, which will effectively increase the number of ha. Cultivated around the wetland. Population growth will also contribute to the expansion and diversification of crops cultivated upstream of and around the wetland. In the future local APUs project a conservative estimate of sowing around 10000 ha. Which constitutes about half of the arable land for rice cropping in the wetland area. Due to in site population growth, higher urbanization in riparian areas is to be expected; but because of the relatively low density of houses in the area, this growth will not cause considerable damage in the system in the near future. In 10 years the number of riparian house settlements will be approximately 142 (an increase of 6 houses in 10 years). On the other hand, higher urbanization in upstream rural areas might prove problematic in the future, because of the growth of its population, but further projections won't become available until de 2010 census is completed.

Multipurpose dam and water transfer projects upstream of AdM

Guayas basin upstream of AdM

These projects haven't been implemented yet. They are either under construction or still just on plans.

The following projects (coordinated by CEDEGE) will be implemented:

A multi-purpose dam on the Vinces river upstream of AdM. This dam will generate hydropower, supply irrigation water, support flood

AdM

The RAMSAR 2008 sheet indicated that the water quality indexes reported a 100% for NO3 and NH4. For PO4 the readings oscillated between 75% and 80%. For dissolved O2 the readings reported values above 80%. In all, the wetland system reports an acceptable water quality state for maintaining local bio-diversity. As matter of fact, these indexes reported an improvement from readings taken in June of 1981, which suggested an overall improvement in the site's condition.

There Erosion is attributable to deforestation because of the growth of agricultural activities and the radical changes in crops planted in the last years. Today maize is mostly planted and to do so, people have to deforest large areas and burn them down in preparation [START_REF] Noroña | Analysis of the decision making process in wetland management and the role of guidelines; Case Study: Abras de Mantequilla -Prov[END_REF].

Future increase in agriculture upstream of and around the wetland further loss of natural areas: deforestation, because of the techniques implemented to cultivate crops (especially maize).

Appearance of exotic species AdM

The exotic species of Tilapia has appeared in the AdM due to rupture of the containment wall of a fish pond in the the basin. Efforts have been made to halt their reproduction, like the chemical sex reversion of the Tilapia in the Guayas River Basin (refer to http://www.dspace.espol.edu.ec/handle/123456789/6 341, [START_REF] Marcillo | Cultivo de Tilapia en el Ecuador[END_REF].

Suspected deterioration in water quality AdM

The RAMSAR 2008 sheet indicated that the water quality indexes reported a 100% for NO3 and NH4. For PO4 the readings oscillated between 75% and 80%. For dissolved O2 the readings reported values above 80%. In all, the wetland system reports an acceptable water quality state for maintaining local bio-diversity. As matter of fact, these indexes reported an improvement from readings taken in June of 1981, which suggested an overall improvement in the site's condition.

On his report on the conformation of "Abras de Mantequilla" commonwealth, [START_REF] Ladino | Various documents[END_REF] states that only the main parishes around the wetland have INP today is working to collect data of water quality for the upstream river basins, but there is only one research station in the AdM area, which makes the data collected not very reliable for future predictions in the systems WQ.

I

DSI components Spatial scales Description

Present (+ near past) Future potable water service available, understanding this as the process of water filtering trough chlorine.

Eutrophication (water hyacinths) AdM Water hyacinths are already quite abundant in the AdM

Habitat conditions of water hyacinth will become better due to the increasing nutrient loads and also to the expected hydrological changes water hyacinth cover will likely increase

Changes in hydrology

During field trips, river sedimentation was observed, to the point that some rivers like Pueblo Viejo have almost disappeared.

According to projection and planning by CEDEGE, the hydrological system will be dramatically altered by massive dam construction projects upstream in the tributary and affluent rivers. If the implementation of these projects is successful a potential change in AdM hydrology is likely to occur, because of the reduction in the amount of water that reaches the system.

Impact

Loss of biodiversity: flora, fauna, ecological imbalance AdM Isolated forests are undergoing a succession process, since they are not primary forests. They are in the course of recovering from anthropologic interventions. This confinement that the species in the area are subject off is surrounded by agricultural plantations. This has made genetic exchange between surviving species practically not feasible and may cause loss in local biodiversity due to the competition for this scarce resource and anthropogenic pressure.

Due the insertion of the tilapia species, during workshops local stakeholders stated that fishery activities already show concerns since artisanal practices encountered a decrease in the amount of caught endemic species.

If the current trend continues, local biodiversity could be expected to suffer considerable loss unless proper measures are taken to alter these patterns.

The planned dams on upstream will likely contribute to the loss of aquatic biodiversity unless measures are taken to compensate the impacts. Only about 5% percent have permanent access to this resource.

These seems to justify that 66% percent of the households in the area report to assume some form of self-treatment (boiling/chlorine/filter/bottled water) on the water they consume.

Since the current annual population growth rate for the AdM area is around 1.79%, population growth could intensify the problem in a midterm horizon.

Also, according to projection and planning by CEDEGE, the hydrological system will be dramatically altered by massive dam construction projects upstream in the tributary and affluent rivers. This could directly impact the quantity and composition of the sedimentary material that inflows from upstream rivers, which in turn could unbalance current conditions and damage water quality in the wetland.

Damage to food production: agriculture, fisheries

During workshops, local stakeholders stated that fishery activities already show concerns since artisanal practices encountered a decrease in the amount of cached endemic species. They declared that tilapia presence in the wetland has replaced native species.

The expected decrease of the wetland's water resources will likely cause damages to agriculture especially to rice cultivation. Also fisheries will suffer due to the decreasing fish stocks Source: presentation of M. Arias in the Mali project meeting (+ see references in the text) Water policy considers wetlands as source of water; agricultural policy regards wetland as agricultural resources that must be protected. Environmental policy is focused on protected areas and areas of national interest, and respect of SA's international engagements. Small scale wetlands such as GaMampa are not well taken into account in legislation and policy.

There is a gap between local / community management of wetland and national level institutions and policies.

Local elected governments have no mandate on natural resources management and their focus is on economic and social development and services delivery.

and national level institutions and policies can decrease

History National

Colonial history of South Africa, especially the apartheid era, may explain the decrease of traditional authority legitimacy in managing natural resources, as some traditional leaders collaborated with the apartheid government, the fact that local community people in the area do not easily accept external attempt to govern their way of using land and natural resources, because they have experienced forced removals in the past (they were chased out of the natural reserves upstream of the wetland) and were imposed agricultural practices (e.g. the betterment programme).

NA

Lack of control of wetland use

GaMampa wetland

Wetland users are under the authorization control of the traditional authorities.

There is no established Water user association in the area.

It is expected that a better coordination between the different line ministries and better awareness of municipal government and administration will increase I DSI components Spatial scales

Description Present (+ past) Future

There is no formal link between traditional authority and water user association in the legislation. Allocation of water between sectors is the responsibility of the catchment management agency which is not yet established in the Olifants river basin. In the interim, the department of water affairs is responsible of allocation of water but have no authority and limited means of control on traditional leadership. Like water governance, nature conservation and agricultural governance don't have direct authorization or administrative control on the wetland users and on the traditional authorities.

The wetland is a common pool of resources with limited control on access and use and therefore a classic "tragedy of the commons" situation is occurring. There is no proper managing body for the wetland.

control on wetland use.

The existing wetland committee could possibly develop in a full wetland management body.

Population growth Neighbouring settlements

At present there are 394 households around the wetland.

According to official sources the present population growth rate at district level is equal to 1.7% per year. However the picture is controversial as local informants have reported population decrease between 1996 and 2001.

Continued growth is foreseen; but emigration will also take place to the cities and mines as people look for alternative ways to earn income Increased food needs Neighbouring settlements As population increases so does food needs. Food needs are expected to grow at the same rate or even more rapidly than the population

Poor transport and communication services

Neighbouring settlements GaMampa valley is very remote, located at 90km from the municipality offices. The last part of the road to the villages is not tarred and in a very bad condition. There is almost no cellphone network in the area.

The municipality is planning to extend the tarred road up to GaMampa and beyond to the R36, but the delay for completion is uncertain. The implementation of cellphone masts is part of the local municipality's IDP but again there is no indication when this will be done.

Limited access to markets

Neighbouring settlements

The distance from the main town, the only recent upgrading of the road and the absence of cellphone network make access to market for agricultural inputs and outputs very difficult. As a consequence, local households are maintained in a subsistence economy that forces them to seek for additional natural resources as the population grows.

It is expected that the further upgrading of the road and installation of cellphone mats will enhance market opportunities for the local agricultural production, thus increasing the value of agricultural outputs. Sources: Information from M. Masiyandima and S. Morardet, [START_REF] Adekola | The economic and livelihood value of provisioning services of the Ga-Mampa wetland[END_REF][START_REF] Tinguery | The interface between the local community -based wetland resources management and the formal wetland policies, laws and institutions[END_REF][START_REF] Santos | Lecture de la gestion raisonnée des zones humides en Afrique du Sud : politiques, stratégies, contexte institutionnel et organisationnel pour une gestion intégrée. Diplôme d'ingénieur agronome de spécialisation en agronomie tropicale et gestion sociale de l'eau[END_REF][START_REF] Chiron | Impact of the small-scale irrigated sector on household revenues of the black community of Ga-Mampa Valley (Ward of Mafefe)[END_REF][START_REF] Ferrand | Participatory diagnosis about farming systems and social management of water in the small-scale irrigation scheme of the Mashushu Community, Limpopo Province, South Africa[END_REF][START_REF] Kotze | An ecological assessment of the health of the Mohlapetsi wetland , Limpopo Province[END_REF][START_REF] Darradi | Analysing stakeholders for sustainable wetland management in the Limpopo River Basin[END_REF][START_REF] Murgue | Participatory analysis of tradeoffs between wetland ecosystem services in the GaMampa valley Limpopo Province, South Africa[END_REF]

Lack of alternative

Figure 3 - 1 :

 31 Figure 3-1: Basic form of the DSIR framework

I

  Drivers are represented by natural and social processes which influence directly/indirectly the current/future environmental State. Drivers may act in the past, at present and also in the future. In this later case driving forces and their effects are called vulnerability scenarios. State describes physical, chemical or biological phenomena in the given reference area. It reflects the condition of the environment[START_REF] Eni | DSS4 Decision methods[END_REF]). E.g. air, water, soil quality. Drivers cause Changes of State (e.g. decreased water levels, eutrophication) which ultimately result in impacts. Impacts on population, economy, ecosystems describe the ultimate effects of changes of state, in terms of damage (or benefit) caused to Ecosystem Services. E.g. biodiversity loss, reduced flood regulation capacity. Responses demonstrate the efforts of society (e.g. politicians, decision-makers) to solve the problems encountered in the investigated system[START_REF] Eni | DSS4 Decision methods[END_REF]). E.g. key habitats for colonially nesting waterbirds Resident birds of the Delta such as herons, cormorants, darters, ibises and spoonbills X X Flood forests as key habitats for fish: nesting birds fertilise the underlying water with their droppings, making these places prime areas for fish production Fish stock of the Delta X Floating bourgou (Echinochloa stagnina) fields as key feeding habitats for piscivorous bird species Resident birds of the Delta, migratory Birds from Europe and adjacent Asia X X Floating bourgou fields as key nursery habitats for juvenile fish providing both : water regulation and flood control Settlements in the Segou, Mopti and Tombouctou regions X Water quality control Sediment retention: burial of nutrients in sediments deposited in the IND Inhabitants and ecosystems in and downstream of the IND X Water purification and waste treatment Inhabitants and ecosystems in and downstream of the irrigated and floating rice fields Farmers (mainly Bambara and Rhimaibé people) living in the Delta X Bourgou production in the Delta Herders (mainly Fulani people) who move their livestocks from pasture lands of the surroundings areas into the IND during receding flood and dry season, and have them grazed on the stranded bourgou X Fish production in the Delta Fishermen (mainly Bozo people) and fishing farmers living in the Delta X X Fodder for small ruminants as well as eggs and chicks provided by the flood forests Inhabitants of the IND X Water extracted from groundwaters, or directly from the surface waters for drinking, household and sanitation purposes (main source of water borne diseases) different interest (medicinal, plague control,…..) provided by the flood forests Inhabitants of the IND X X Navigation routes for transporting goods and people Inhabitants of the IND X X Cultural Tourism and eco-tourism: supports preserving ecological and culture-historical values. The main tourist sites in the Delta are the regions of Mopti and Tombouctou. Tourists visiting the IND. Hotels, restaurants, arts and craft centres in the Delta. X Sources: Beintema et al., 2005; Berthe & Kone, 2008; Kuper et al., 2003; Zwarts et al., 2005 I 4.1.3 Problem I.: Changes to IND hydro-morphological regime a. Impact of climate change and upstream water intakes by Office du Niger on the ecosystem services of IND (without the effects of reservoirs built on the Upper Niger basin (e.g. the Sélingué reservoir built in 1982)):

  poured into the street, into badly designed gutters and sumps. Barely 8.3% of the population of Mali has a cesspool for the disposal of domestic wastewater. Thus, most of wastewaters discharge directly into the ground-and surface water bodies.The situation will unlikely to change in the , 62 231, 68 880, 87 466 and 106 455 t of fertilizers have been used around and along the upstream Niger Respectively 1 366 000, 1 080 000, 1 310 000, 2 102 460 and 1 600 445 litres of insecticides have used in1995,96, 97 , 98 and 2003 Respectively 125 000, 169 000, 210 000, 497 010 and 243 185 litres of herbicides have been used 1995,96, 97, 98 and 2003. The situation will be worsened with the expected increase of the irrigated areas of Office du Niger and subvention given to famers in the surface-and IND Actual concentrations of key nutrients at three characteristic sites of the IND: Macina: nitrate: 3.2 -29.8 mg/l; nitrite: 0.007 -0.034 mg/l Mopti: nitrate: 3.3 -14.6 mg/l; nitrite: 0.001 -0.074 mg/l Youwarou: nitrate: 2.3 -39.6 mg/l; nitrite: 0.002 -0.063 mg/l

  Sources: Berthe &[START_REF] Kone | Wetlands and Sanitation -A View from Africa[END_REF] Wong et al., 2005; information from B. Kone; LNE, 2009; WHO 2008. I Potential measures (responses) for controlling water-borne diseases; expected impacts of these measures: Sources: Alderlieste & Langeveld, 2005; WI project: 'Poverty Reduction in the Inner Niger Delta of Mali' (report title?); Conclusions of the WETwin consortium and stakeholder meetings (November 2009, Mali) ha of the rice fields are irrigated in OdN. Irrigated areas in the OdN are planned to be extended by about 13700 ha in the coming years. The master plan of the scheme envisages ultimately an irrigation infrastructure for over

4. 2

 2 Nabajjuzi and Namatala wetlands 4.2.1 Delineation of the Nabajjuzi catchment and wetland The map shows land use in the Nabajjuzi catchment in 2005. The wetland area is in light blue. Primary investigation area consists of the wetland branches upstream from Masaka. Secondary investigation area consists of the two wetland branches downstream from Masaka down to their junction. A precise delineation of these two areas in GIS is being developed. of the Namatala catchment and wetland Mbale The map shows land use in the Namatala catchment in 2005. The wetland area is in light blue. The investigation area is the mixed wetland-farmland region downstream of Mbale. A precise delineation of this area in GIS is being developed. Habitats for natural aquatic plants. Cyperus papyrus L. (the dominating aquatic plant), phoenix. (In Namatala these natural plants have been replaced by rice at most places, only few natural wetland spots have been left. Most part of Nabajjuzi is still under natural vegetation cover, though agricultural encroachment is in progress.) Habitats for terrestrial plants Palm trees, sedges Habitats for rare native mammals (only Nabajjuzi) e.g. Sitatunga (~antelope) Spawning, nursery and feeding habitats for various fish species Fish stock of the wetland; fish stock of the Katonga River: Lung Fish, Mud Fish Habitats for insects e.g. Enswa (~termite) Nesting, resting and feeding habitats for birds. Bird community of the wetland and of the region. Migratory birds from other regions and continents. In the Nabajjuzi over 200 species of bird have been recorded including the Shoebills, Papyrus Yellow Warbler, Papyrus Gonolek, Saddle-billed Stork, Crowned Cranes and occasionally Woolly-necked Stork. Highly dynamic area due to water abundance and soil fertility All wetland communities Sources: MWLE, 2004; information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; NatureUganda, water for a long time so that it is available for use by the communities (water storage) Population around the wetland; National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC) who extracts water from the Nabajjuzi for public water supply in the Masaka area. Groundwater recharge and discharge Vegetation and population in the surroundings of the wetland Erosion and sedimentation control (mainly Nabajjuzi) Farmers, vegetation in the wetland, downstream users Influence/amelioration of microclimate (by papyrus first of all) (publication??) Human population, agriculture and animals in the catchment Nutrient reduction and water purification by de-nitrification, mineralization, primary production, burial and harvesting (papyrus, rice, yam) Water quality in the wetland and in downstream water bodies (e.g. River Katonga) Provisioning Drinking water piped by NWSC (only Nabajjuzi) Population in the Masaka Water Supply Area Drinking water extracted by riparian communities Riparian communities Food production Food supply from animals: fish (Mud-and Lung fish), game (Sitatunga, wild pigs) (mainly Nabajjuzi) Population around the wetland Food supply from natural plants (wild fruits) Population around the wetland Land for farming: limited farming in Nabajjuzi in the form of 'wetland edge cultivation': banana, maize, cassava, sugar cane, yams and pineapple large scale farming in Namatala: mainly rice but also sugar cane, yam Population around the wetland Land for grazing (on the seasonal parts and on the drained parts of the wetland) Population around the wetland Drivers -States -Impacts -farmlands Population around the wetland Building materials: papyrus, reeds, poles from palm trees, grass for thatching Population around the wetland Building materials: bricks, clay, sand Population around the wetland Craft materials: papyrus, palm trees, sedges Population around the wetland Source of traditional medicinal plants Population around the wetland Transport routes for goods and people (canoes) Population around the wetland Cultural Presence of traditional craft and house-building techniques Population around the wetland Place for sacred worship (only Nabajjuzi) Population around the wetland Eco-tourism: bird-and animal watching from a watchtower (only Nabajjuzi) External visitors, income for local population Largely natural landscape character: aesthetic value (only Nabajjuzi) External visitors, population in and around the wetland Sources: MWLE, 2004; information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; NatureUganda, 2008 I 4.2.4 Problems related to the Nabajjuzi wetland Problem I.: Potential consequences of limited water resources of Nabajjuzi (a likely problem in the future): Sources: MWLE, 2004; information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; Conclusions of the discussion on responses at the S-African and Austrian project meetings of WETwin (Loskopdam, April 2010; Lunz, November 2011; R. Kaggwa, S. Namaalwa, A. van Dam and T. Hein)

Wetland

  Agricultural encroachment due to expanding 'wetland edge cultivation'. Encroachers have taken over at least 500 hectares of wetlands in Masaka District, destroying the fragile ecosystem in the area. The most affected wetlands include Nabajjuzi. Nabajjuzi is also threatened by the rapidly growing commercialisation of wetland resources. The demand for crafts materials in the nearby centres has considerably increased. This has in turn increased the levels of extraction of raw materials from the wetland. Hunting of the Sitatunga for meat especially by the military personnel is of particular concern. water is endangered by nutrient input Is likely to increase Pollutants in the water Wetland and around The presence of pollutants in the water has to be investigated.Potential impact on humans and animals can be highTo be investigated Impacts Damages to wetland vegetation and ecology Wetland Water shortage, increasing water intake, high nutrient and pollutant loads harm the ecology of the wetland Is likely to increase Ecosystem services downstream are endangered Wetland and around Quality of human livelihood is endangered due to water shortage and (potential) pollutant loads Is likely to increase Shortage of drinking water Masaka municipality For the time being the water demand of Masaka is satisfied by intakes from the wetlands It is likely that the demand for drinking water will not be met with growing population High costs for iron removal Masaka municipality The high iron loads in the water make it necessary to remove iron Will persist Low drinking water quality Wetland and around Nutrient loads make it necessary to treat the drinking water Will persist Sources: MWLE, 2004; Wong et al., 2005b; information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; Byaruhanga & Kigoolo, 2005; NatureUganda, 2008; The Monitor, 2009 I 4.2.5 Problems related to the Namatala wetland Problem I.: Agricultural encroachment in Namatala: Sources: Information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; Edyegu, 2010; Conclusions of the discussion on responses at the S-African project meeting of WETwin (Loskopdam, April 2010; R. Kaggwa, S. Namaalwa, A. van Dam and T. Hein) 1. Ecosystems of the wetland Destruction of the papyrus fields. Turning the wetland into a system of paddy fields Altered nutrient removal and buffering capacity of the wetland due of habitats and reduced biodiversity 3. Poorer quality of water released to downstream and/or extracted from the wetland for household purposes 4. Change of microclimate (possibly rising temperatures) Land use planning Upper Namatala: 1. Legalize sustainable agricultural under certain conditions:clear demarcation of user zones enforce ecologically sound agriculture (no fertilizers, IPM, etc.) increase awareness about the purification service of agriculture 2. Create buffer zones at Mbale between the stabilization ponds and the agricultural zone. These zones should consist of mature stands of papyrus, which offer habitats for wildlife. There should not be harvesting in these buffers as this would reduce the nutrient levels in the water too much; these nutrients should be reserved for the agricultural zone. Lower Namatala: Stop encroachment; conserve the original wetland vegetation; allow sustainable use: fishing, papyrus harvesting. : Increasing urban and industrial pollution loads into Namatala: Sources: Information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; Conclusions of the discussion on responses at the S-African project meeting of WETwin (Loskopdam, April 2010; R. Kaggwa, S. Namaalwa, A. van Dam and T. Hein) 2. WQ and nutrient cycling system of the wetland Deteriorating WQ in the wetland increasing trophic level in the water bodies that may lead to algal blooms and anoxic conditions Pollution loads may reach the purification capacity limit of the system Impacts on Ecosystem Services 2. Further loss of habitats and biodiversity 5. Damages to agriculture and fisheries 3. Poorer quality of water released to downstream and/or extracted from the wetland in Mbale municipality. 1. Reduce the risk of contamination by pathogens, toxic substances or heavy metals; reduce the organic load in the wastewater (without removing the nutrients): action to clean up polluting industries and cottage industries enforcing discharge standards rehabilitating the existing stabilization ponds and improving their day-to-day operations and management 2. Increase the capacity of wastewater treatment if population growth and economic development makes it necessary: increase the capacity of the stabilisation bonds (more ponds?) improve treatment through use of mechanical systems as well Improve the purification capacity of the wetland within the frame of land use planning (see also the previous page5 million people to 26 million in the past 50 years. Leads to increased demand of water and food and to increased pollution Population is likely to increase. Annual population growth rate (1991-2002): 3.4%

  nesting and feeding habitat for key predatory birds Rare and valuable birds nesting in the floodplain or in the surrounding areas, e.g. White.tailed Eagle X XFloodplain forests and water bodies: nesting, feeding and resting habitat for key migratory birds Rare and valuable migratory birds nesting in the Gemenc, e.g. Black Stork. Migratory birds from other European nesting places using the Gemenc as resting and feeding place during migration.XWintering habitat for migratory bird species Guest birds from the North X Floodplain water bodies: spawning, nursery and feeding habitats for fish Fish stock of the Danube: carp, pike, catfish and bream X Floodplain water bodies: resting habitats for fish Fish stock of the Danube X Floodplain forests and water bodies: Habitat for unique mammals wild river regulation on the ecosystem services of the Gemenc:Sources:Kalocsa & Tamás, 2004; Tamás & Kalocsa, 2004;[START_REF] Tamás | A Duna hajózhatóságának javítása tárgyú projektet megalapozó tanulmány véleményezése[END_REF][START_REF] Zsuffa | Multi-criteria decision support for the revitalisation of river floodplains[END_REF] wetland habitats and ecosystems; reduced lateral migration, and lateral biomass/ nutrient exchange 2. Impact on wood production: desiccation of forests on the high grounds, formation of new forest habitats on the lower grounds 3. Impact on fisheries:

  , the annual minimum, mean and maximum water levels of the Danube at the Gemenc have decreased with 1.30, 1.60 and 0.80 meters during the XX. Century. The area and the depth of the floodplain water bodies have been decreased to their fifth or even more.

  ;[START_REF] Zsuffa | Multi-criteria decision support for the revitalisation of river floodplains[END_REF] Responses envisaged by the World Bank GEF project for the Báta sub-system, and the expected impacts of these responses: Sources:[START_REF] Virág | GEF-DDNP Tápanyagcsökkentési Projekt, Kotrási munkák, mőtárgyépítés. Tervezési koncepció. (GEF-DDNP Nutrient Reduction Project, Dredging works, constructions. Planning concept[END_REF][START_REF] Vituki | Environmental Status Report (Environmental Assessment) Social Impact Assessment (Public Consultation), Reduction of Nutrient Discharges Project DDNP Component GEF # TF[END_REF] Lowering the bottom level of the Báta oxbow lake Water regime of the floodplain Increased area, volume and depth of water in the Báta oxbow Locally increased groundwater levels along the oxbow Further reduction in connectivity between the Báta oxbow and the Danube due to impoundment Recovery of wetland habitats and ecosystems; further reduction in lateral migration, and lateral biomass/ nutrient exchange Impact on wood production: termination of timber production along the banks of the Báta oxbow due to inundation; Impact on fisheries: increased fish harvests due to enlarged aquatic habitats Impact on receiving external waters: increased costs of pumping drainage waters of the Szekszárd-Bátai canal into the Báta oxbow due to impoundment Increased disturbance on humans and animals caused by mosquitoes proliferating in the increased water bodies

  A considerable adult fish supply is observed intriver lanes around the communities settled in the wetland. They belong to the Lebiasinidae family. The local stakeholders call this the Huaija or Anchoa, a species which length revolves around 7 and 8 cm. W. Rebello et. al. (2004) analyzed a total of 304 specimens from 9 different families (Curimatorbis Boulengeri or dica 26.3%, Brycondentex or dama 23.7%, Leporinus Ecuadoriensis 12.5%, Ramdia Cinerascense or barbudo 12.8%) If the current trend continues, local biodiversity could be expected to suffer considerable loss unless proper measures are taken to alter these patterns Source: presentation of M. Arias in the Mali project meeting (+ see references in the text)

(

  the population settled on the wetland's surroundings, INEC ECV-2006 reported that about 44% have eventual access to a drinking water supply. Only about 5% have permanent access to this resource.

  fish supply is observed intriver lanes around the communities settled in the wetland. They belong to the Lebiasinidae family. The local stakeholders call this the Huaija or Anchoa, a species which length revolves around 7 and 8 cm. W. Rebello et. al. (2004) analyzed a total of 304 specimens from 9 different families (Curimatorbis Boulengeri or dica 26.3%, Brycondentex or dama 23.7%, Leporinus Ecuadoriensis 12.5%, Ramdia Cinerascense or barbudo 12.8%) During workshops, local stakeholders stated their perception that the second most important function of the wetland service provision capacity revolves around fisheries.

  , local stakeholders pointed a decline in the wetland's navigability. They identified the problem as a consequence of increased presence of water hyacinth in the area. Other workshops conducted by the Ministry of Environment (2003) confirmed this problem and declared a priority concern that falls directly under its jurisdiction The problem will likely become more severe in local community organization, the ECV 2006 states that about 11% of the total population has participation on community action for income generation or food provision. Nonetheless, less than 1% percent of the population declares involvement in other types community action such as initiatives to participate in government aid programs, childcare, public good provision (like communal water boards), etc During workshops, local stakeholders show increased expectations to exploit the wetland's touristic potential. They invision to intensify local community action to pursue this objective.

(

  of M. Arias in the Mali project meeting (+ see references in the text) of agricultural and urban development on the ecosystem services of AdM Source: presentation of M. Arias in the Mali and Delft project meetings 2II.: Impacts of basin-scale river management and water allocation projects on the ecosystem services of AdM Source: presentation of M. Arias in the Mali and Delft project meetings

  of the AdM, approximately 136 houses are scattered around 70 000 hectares; which makes communication between houses and/or communities very difficult, especially during winter because of the number of floods. Given the average number of people per household in AdM wetland (4 people per household), the estimated annual growth rate of house settlements is approximately 0.4% (processed from ECV INEC-2006). There are several municipalities located upstream AdM but, in order to analyse the expansion of urbanization in rural areas, we will refer to the following: Mocache, with a 2010 projected rural population of 31477 inhabitants and an approximated number of house settlements of 7869. Ventanas with a 2010 projected rural population of 34321 inhabitants and an approximated number of house settlements of 8580. Pueblo Viejo with a 2010 projected rural population of 24666 inhabitants and an approximated number of house settlements of 6166. Palenque with a 2010 projected rural population of 17324 inhabitants and an approximated number of house settlements of 4331. (Processed from the INEC's 2001 Census and ECV-2006).

  retention and transfer water to the Daule river basin Water transfer from the Vinces river to the Puebloviejo river right upstream of AdM Dam inside the AdM I has occupied more and more natural areas in the wetland Due to Increasing agriculture upstream of and around the wetland and the expansion of the agricultural frontier in higher grounds in the future (which causes an increase of sediments carried to the basin during rainy seasons), further agricultural encroachment is to be expected Increasing inflow of agrochemicals into the surface waters of AdM

  Agricultural Resources Act (CARA) (1983). -National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004 Traditional management -Traditional authority responsible for allocating land in commons but their legitimacy is decreasing.

  ; Conclusions of the WETwin stakeholder meeting (15 April 2010, Loskopdam, South-Africa) I Potential Responses (for counteracting the degradation of the GaMampa wetland) and their interactions with the DPSI chain: Source: Information from M. Masiyandima and S. Morardet; Murgue, 2010; Conclusions of the WETwin stakeholder meeting (15 April 2010, Loskopdam, South-Africa)

  chain: Ecological degradation in the Lobau floodplain Source: Poster prepared by T. Hein for the WETwin workshop in Ecuador 1of the Danube Channel Straightening and deepening of the Danube channel in the 19 th century.

Water regime of the wetland in the dry season

  The total population of Mali is 11,965,788 (data from 2004), of which 1 million inhabit the Inner Niger Delta. The actual rate of annual population growth is 2.6%

	DSI components	Spatial	Description
	1, Climate change (see Problem II.b) 10. Proliferation of invasive weeds Increasing evapotranspiration in the Delta 6. Decreasing surface Inner Niger 8. Decreasing inflows into the IND especially during weak floods 5. Intake of water from the Niger to the Office du Niger 11. Increasing evapotranspiration Releases from the Sélingué reservoir add to the base in the Delta flows in the IND above critical levels dry season Delta increase in open water and soil/plant evaporation. closely related. Increases in temperature have implied an Evaporation/transpiration and temperature variability are Water regime of the wetland 1. Flood season: decreased flood water levels and reduced flooded areas 2. Dry season: decreased flows and water levels runoffs from the basin 7. Decreasing groundwater reserves in the basin 9. Increasing temperatures 2. Keeping water levels and 15. Regulating inflows into the IND during the 13. Constructing and operating reservoirs in the upstream a. diverting waters to new irrigation schemes in the Upper Niger Basin b. energy production c. controlling the annual flow regime of the river. connecting the floodplain water bodies to the river 11. Increasing evapotranspiration in the Delta of the Niger Decreasing inflows into the IND Inner Niger Delta season due to retentions in the Sélingué reservoir Grande Sécheresse'). Further decreases during the flood Started in 1973 with the declining rainfalls (eighties: 'La Impact Reduced lateral The planned reservoirs upstream will result in further Impacts on Ecosystem Services 1. Destruction of key habitats like flood forests, bourgou fields, breeding ground for fish and feeding ground for fish eating waterbirds 2. Decreased fish stock due to habitat destruction and to overfishing at very low water levels during the dry season decreased revenues for fishermen. 3. Decrease in floating rice area decrease in farm revenues 4. Decreased livestock for herders 5. Worsened navigation conditions 8. Improved navigation conditions for small boats is projected to increase by 5-10% by 2050. As a rough estimate, potential evapotranspiration over Africa season decreased incomes navigation conditions for large boats Impacts on Ecosystem Services in the dry season 6. Better survival chances for ecosystems (?) 7. Increased length of the fishing spawning grounds are reduced decreasing fish stock decreasing income to flood season) upstream (this later will cause decreases only during the enlargement of Office du Niger, construction of reservoirs Further decreases are expected due to: climate change, fishermen connectivity Constructing reservoirs in the upstream catchment Upper Niger basin The Sélingué reservoir (2.04 km³/year) is operational since1982. Planned reservoir at Fomi with 6.2 km³ /year and 30000 ha of irrigated area. Planned reservoirs at Talo and Djenné Drivers flood season catchment of the Niger for: 18. Sedimentation in the lateral canals Fisheries 2. Access of fish to the Office du Niger IND the Markala dam built on the Niger. over 250000 ha. the wetland in the agricultural lands of upstream of the Niger is 2. km³ (80 m³/s). Gravitational intake is enabled by scheme envisages ultimately an irrigation infrastructure for 1. Water regime of the Niger to the Niger right ha of the rice fields are irrigated. The annual water intake from 13700 ha in the coming years. The master plan of the Impacts on Fish and agricultural lands of Driver State Impact 4. Decreasing rainfalls on the basin 3. Increasing need for food Cause-effect link 2. Population growth 14. Further decreases of inflows into the IND during the flood season Impacts on Ecosystem Services in the flood season 1. Further destruction of habitats (especially the bourgou fields) 2+3+4. Further decreases in: fish stock, floating rice area and livestock 5. Further deterioration of 1. Water regime of the wetland in the flood season Further decrease of flood water levels in the water bodies of the IND 3. Increasing need for food 12. Increasing need for energy Driver State Impact Cause-effect link 2. Population growth 17. Increasing (?) sediment transport in the Niger from the Upper basin 16. Increasing erosion in Driver DSI components Description scales Present (+ near past) Future Spatial Cause-effect link scales Present (+ near past) Future A water balance model revealed that the water level in the the Upper Niger Basin due to deforestation and agricultural mismanagement State Impact Population growth countries of Mali and Guinee Decreasing rainfalls on the basin Upper Niger Basin Since 1973 the Sahel has been confronted with a decline in In spite of the inconsistency of model prediction, State Delta from August to October is on average 5-10 cm lower due Water levels and flooded area in the IND during the flood season Inner Niger to irrigation of the Office du Niger zone and another 15 cm lower due to the Sélingué reservoir. The Fomi dam will reduce the peak flood level by another 45 cm and it will cause an additional decline of 2200 km 2 in the Delta Sélingué reservoir has lead to an average decline of the maximum inundated area of 600 km max inundated area. 2 . Water intake by the Office du Niger has caused an additional decline of 300 km 2 . precipitations are likely to decrease in most parts of West rainfall. The trend is -3.5 mm/y on the Upper Niger basin. and Central Africa. It is assumed that the trend of -3.5 mm/y will continue. Increasing temperatures West Africa Observed records show that the African continent is warmer Water levels and flows in the IND Inner Niger no data no data Delta during the dry season Land areas may warm by as much as 1.6°C by 2050 over than it was 100 years ago and the warming rate during the the Sahara and the surrounding semi-arid areas. 20th century was about 0.05°C per decade. Intake of water from Office du Office du Niger is operational since 1947. Nowadays 70 000 There are plans for extending the irrigated area by about Inner Niger Impact on habitats Delta
	Sources: Kuper et al., 2003; Zwarts et al., 2005 discharge of the Upper Niger, though a large portion of these Regulating inflows into the IND during the dry season Inner Niger Delta waters is diverted to Office du Niger. Nevertheless, in May (when the natural river flow can be as low as 40 m 3 /s) the inflows to the IND are kept above 50-60 m 3 /s with the help of	increases in dry season flows, given that no significant increases in water intakes to Office du Niger will take place. Otherwise: dry season inflows may even decrease in the future due to the combined effects of climate change and
			Sélingué dam (in spite of the intakes by Office du Niger).	water uses.
				I

I b. Impact of upstream reservoirs (existing reservoirs like the Sélingué and planned ones like the Fomi) on the ecosystem services of IND: I c. Impact of sedimentation on the ecosystem services of IND: Sources: WWF, 2008; Conclusions of the WETwin stakeholder meetings (27 November 2009, Konna, Mali) Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses I Detailed description of the DSI components:

.4 Problem II.: Domestic and agricultural pollution of surface waters

	Potential measures (responses) for improving the provisioning services of IND; expected impacts of these measures: Modifying the management of the upstream dams for the towards compromise need less water benefit of IND Change from traditional fisheries to intensive aquaculture Dredging the lateral canals to improve lateral growing crops that connectivity Change farming irrigation farming practices: 4.1a. Problem of water-borne diseases:	ecotourism Developing
	upstream dam
	management strategies
				Impacts on habitats
	Improved flow regime of the Niger (from the point of view of the IND)		Water regime of the wetland Increased flood levels Longer flood periods	Recovery of the bourgou fields Restoration of the lateral connection between the river and the floodplain water bodies restoration of spawning habitats	Impacts on Provisioning Services sustained incomes to herders, fishermen and farmers
				Increased sizes of floating rice 3.
				fields
	Cause-effect link	State
	Driver		Reduced operation season for large boats due to lowered Impact Response	Further reduction in the operation season of large boats
	Impact on navigation	Inner Niger	water levels in the flood season. Increased number of	during the flood season due to the reduced flood levels.
	conditions Sources: Conclusions of the WETwin consortium and stakeholder meetings (November 2009, Mali) Delta operation days available for small boats thanks to increased dry season water levels Further extension of operation season of boats during the dry season due to increased water levels.
	Sources: Kuper et al., 2003; Oyebande et al., 2002; Wong et al., 2005a; Zwarts et al., 2005 Sources: Berthe & Kone, 2008; information from C. Baker and B. Kone
	Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses			20
					I I

WQ of the IND near the settlements

		24. Extracting water from
		the surface water bodies
		near to the settlements,
		Using these water bodies
		as bathing sites.
	23. Lack of
	sanitation in
	the settlements within the IND	25. Discharging increasing amounts
		of untreated domestic
		wastewaters into the	High concentrations
		water bodies of IND	of diseases bacteria
			in the surface waters

Impacts on Water- borne disease control 10

	b. Problem of nutrient and chemical pollution:
	19. Low awareness				Cause-effect link	Driver
	of the risks of
	combining sanitary disposal and water				State	Impact
	use
	29. Increasing
	agricultural production
	20. Sectoral in OdN and in other
	approach to agricultural areas
	water supply upstream
	and sanitation	22. Lack of
		water supply infrastructure	4. WQ of the IND Increasing concentration
	21. Limited financial resources	31. Increasing fertilizer and pesticide loads into the surface waters	of nutrients and chemicals in the irrigation canals and in the surface waters of the IND	9. Polluted waters used for drinking and bathing purposes
				13. Proliferation of
				invasive weeds
				(Water Hyacinth,
	growth 2. Population			Salvinia, Mimosa)	. Increasing instances diarrhoea of Cholera and
	5+13. Reservoirs upstream of IND and dams	?	contaminants at low flush-through of 26. Changed hydrological regime:	?
			certain times of year
	Sources: Berthe & Kone, 2008; Conclusions of the WETwin consortium and stakeholder meetings (November 2009, Mali)
				I

Direct Impacts of weeds on Ecosystem Services

  Mali has access to potable water. 31% of the country's population does not have access to improved sanitation. 23% of households of Mali do not have toilet of any kind. In the rural areas 30% of households do not have any form of latrine.

	Detailed description of the DSI components:
		Lack of sanitation in DSI components	Spatial scales	Description	Cause-effect link	Driver
	Drivers	the settlements 23. within the IND 27. along the Upper Niger Lack of sanitation in the settlements 30. Inefficient Extracting surface waters for drinking and household purposes	Impacts on Ecosystem Services 11. Diseases due to nutrient polluted Future State The current situation will improve with Impact the new policy on sanitation and its action plan adopted by the Malian Government in 2008. Also, in the IND they are many projects dealing with the 49% of the population of Lack of settlement WWTP-s: the WWTP of Mopti broke down 2 (?) years Present (+ near past) Discharging untreated domestic waste-waters into: 25. the IND Settlements in and around the IND, settlements along the Niger upstream of IND issues which foresee a better situation ago. Other settlements in the IND don't have WWTP-s at all. in the future water used for human consumption (???) 28. the Upper Niger 1. Destruction of habitats, loss of biodiversity 12. Low autofiltering function of the Niger River reduced water purification capacity (over-saturation of the system) Settlements in the IND This situation has its root in the culture Around 5% of the country's households draw water from rivers, streams or of the IND communities. But it could be ponds. In the IND, the proportion of households with access to tap water is improve by making available more 32%. Drinking water is a rare commodity for the inhabitants of the area in improved boreholes and awareness particular, with 96 functional boreholes in 1998. programs.
		irrigation
		schemes in
		OdN
			?
			8+14. Decreasing
			inflows to the IND (see Problem I.)		5. Obstruction of navigation 2. Disturbance of fishing
					activities
					1. Habitat destruction:
					disappearance of biodiversity
					due to the disappearance of
					oxygen (shadowing effect)
	Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses	22
				I

Impacts on Vector- borne disease control

	Crop management measures on	Water management measures on
	rice fields: 1. Change to quickly developing rice varieties and to denser	rice fields: 1. Increasing the water depth 2. Proper drainage after harvest:	Cutting and removing weeds (?)	Chemical vector-control	1. Soaked mosquito nets 2. Preventive drugs
	transplantations.	prevention of formation of small			3. Medical treatment
	2. Changing rotation practice:	ponds in the rice fields			4. Raising
	rotation over blocks that are	3. Decrease the amount of irrigation			awareness
	the maximum flying distance	water per ha by increasing
	of mosquitoes apart, about 3-5 km	efficiency stagnant waters decrease the size of
		Rice				Even though there are national
		cultivation in				plans for treating and
		OdN modified				preventing these diseases ,
	Prevent stagnation of water by controlling the water regime (locally, or with the help of the dams upstream of IND) (?)		Worsened habitat conditions for and snails Anopheles mosquitoes	snails Anopheles and Reduced stock of	involvement of local communities and local policymakers in defining, planning and implementing might improve the current situation Malaria and Reduced instances of
						Schistosomiasis
	Cause-effect link	Driver	State
		Impact	Response

Sources: Berthe & Kone, 2008; information from B. Kone I Potential measures (responses) for controlling vector-borne diseases; expected impacts of these measures: Sources: Berthe & Kone, 2008; Klinkenberg et al., 2002; information from C. Baker I 4.1.

6 Problem IV.: Management problems in the Inner Niger Delta

	4.1
	32. Limited financial resources of the	33. Lack of financial	Cause-effect link	Driver
	government of Mali	resources for wetland management	State	Impact
	34. Institutional	35. Lack of
	fragmentation	coordination
		among agencies
			6. Management of the
	36. Contradiction between 'traditional' (local) laws and national laws	37. Actual land uses are not coordinated with wetland management plans	IND Lack of implementation of the Action plan of the national wetlands policy and Ramsar convention	16. Contribution to the destruction of Habitat and Ecosystem Services
	38. Lack of political will	39. IND is not taken into account in development policy
	Source: Information from B. Kone
	Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses		29
			I

.7 Identification of tradeoffs between ecosystem services

	Water management for food and energy	↔	Food production (floating rice, fish,
	production upstream: management of the		cattle) in the Delta
	Markala (Office du Niger), Selungé and Fomi
	dams under regional scenarios
	Food production in Office du Niger (dam and	↔	Disease control: vector-borne
	irrigation management)		diseases in the Macina region
			(Schistosomiasis, malaria)
	Food production in Office du Niger and in	↔	Quality of water in the Macina region
	other agricultural lands upstream of IND		for drinking. Invasive weeds in the
	fertilizer and pesticide pollution of the Niger		canals and water bodies in the Macina
			region. Ecosystem health of the IND.
	Human waste disposal from the settlements	↔	Quality of waters in the IND used for
	into the surface waters of the IND		drinking and bathing purposes (Mopti,
			Konna)	water-borne diseases

Source: Conclusions of the WETwin consortium and stakeholder meetings

(November 2009, Mali)

  Presentation of Bernhard Freyer on sustainable agriculture in Uganda (WETwin project meeting Lunz, Austria)

	Problem II.: Iron contamination in Nabajjuzi: Problem IV.: Encroachment, exploitation and disturbance: DSI component Spatial scales	Description
	Detailed description of the DSI components at Nabajjuzi:	Present (+ Past)	Future
	1. Water resources of the wetland Increasing number of periods with limited water resources at Masaka and downstream Sources: MWLE, 2004; information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; presentation of P. Impacts on Ecosystem Services 1. Damages to wetland habitats downstream of Masaka 2. Damages of wetland based livelihoods downstream of Masaka 3. The increasing demand for drinking water at Masaka will not be met Installing a new water intake point downstream of downstream the junction of Nabajuzzi and Nakaiba Balance water provisioning service in the upstream wetland (increased abstraction) with provisioning services and ecological functions in the downstream parts of the Nabajjuzi wetland 4. Increasing water intake by NWSC at Masaka Driver State Impact Responses (proposed by WETwin) 1. Population growth / rapid urbanization in Masaka municipality Cause-effect link 2. Climate variability 3. Increasing number of periods with low precipitation and runoff with growing population 2. WQ of the wetland High iron content in the water Impacts on Ecosystem Services 4. High costs of water purification for NWSC Responses 7. Washing iron into the wetland waters 5. Iron sources in the catchment: most likely erosion sites where iron from the soil is washed into the water system Locating the sources. Terminating iron wash-out by appropriate land use measures Improve technology of iron removal at NWSC 6. River bank cultivation on upstream increases erosion Minimising iron wash-out by erosion control measures Installing new intake points at those parts of the wetland where the water contains less iron Driver State Impact Responses (proposed by WETwin) Cause-effect link 2. Deteriorating WQ in the wetland Impacts on Ecosystem Services 4. Increased costs of water purification for NWSC 5. Threatening the health of riparian communities, who extract water directly from the wetland 1. loss of habitats and biodiversity downstream of Masaka Responses 11. New houses on wetland without connections to the sewage system Driver State Impact Responses (proposed by WETwin) Sources: Byaruhanga & Kigoolo, 2005; NatureUganda, 2008; The Monitor, 2009; MWLE, 2004 pollutants) wastewater will increase Cause-effect link 13. Increasing diffuse-source pollution Improve nutrient removal in the Nakaiba arm by regulating and instituting the papyrus harvesting regime. (This measure is especially relevant If the new intake will be located downstream of the Nakaiba arm) contamination from agricultural lands (e.g. pineapple fields) 14. Car washing 15. Tannery Impact (nutrients and chemical effluents, discharge of municipal wastewater possible, municipal Responses Point source pollution Wetland Industrial site: leather tannery; car washing activities; municipal Additional industrial sites Responses Impact water Masaka bank erosion or due to agriculture Cause-effect link Washing iron into the Wetland upstream of It has to be investigated if iron is washed into the water by river To be investigated Cause-effect link by NWSC wetland at Masaka industry 16. Increasing point-source pollution stablilization ponds at Masaka town Impacts on Ecosystem Services 1. Loss and degradation of habitats 1. Reduced biodiversity: endangered birds the Sitatunga are threatened with extinction 6.Threat to community-based ecotourism. Driver Driver Increasing water intake Intake point in the Increased demand of water due to growing population Is likely to increase State plant of Masaka. State is no more than 400m from the water extraction and treatment and animals like the Shoe Bill Stork and Conversion of wetland areas for settlement and cultivation Degradation of ecosystems due to exploitation and disturbances Impacts on Ecosystem Services of the basin 7. Reduced crop yields Destruction of soils due to erosion Masaka biodiversity loss, changes in water quality and threats to public health, generally compromising the ecosystem health and impairing the ecological functioning of the wetland. The effluent Drivers tannery effluent at wetland and this is a big pollutant that is likely to cause upper Nabajjuzi basin Tannery industry Wetland near the Effluents from the tannery are discharged directly into the no data 4. Soil structure of the 3. Ecosystems of the wetland Iron sources Catchment The iron sources are natural Will persist and upgrading the waste 12. Pesticide 1. Population growth / rapid urbanization in Masaka municipality River bank restoration, gallery forests (?) Rehabilitating the existing waste water treatment plant disturbances and exploitation. non-sustainable Industrialisation Catchment Parallel to increasing population Is likely to increase basin need of food upstream part of the Agriculture Catchment Development of new agricultural areas due to the increased Is likely to increase agriculture in the settlements 18. Increasing human 19. De-forestation and + other riparian to richness in resources grow encroachments. Urbanisation Masaka municipality Development of new settlements due to population growth and Settlements are likely to 17. Agricultural and housing 3.4% the banks of the 8. High tariffs of using the sewerage services. 9. Weak enforcement of law and regulation. 10. Sewerage system limited to the central municipal Increasing awareness among municipality authorities and the housing estate Enforce the law Connecting the houses to the sewage network 1. Population growth / Enforce Law and implement Agricultural and rapid urbanization in Masaka municipality the Nabajjuzi Community Based Wetland Management Plan. 1. Population growth / Responses housing rapid urbanization in DSI component Spatial scales Description encroachments. Masaka municipality and on the basin Present (+ Past) Increasing human Future Locating the erosion sites and terminating the erosion process measures (e.g. afforestation) increased pollution growth rate (1991-2002): by appropriate land use Population growth Whole country Uganda: from 5 million people to 26 million in the past 50 years. Leads to increased demand of water and food and to disturbances and Population is likely to increase. Annual population exploitation.
	Winkler in the Delft project meeting Diffuse source pollution	Catchment	Agriculture (fertilisers, pesticides), waste disposal, wastewater	Will increase with growing
	(nutrients and chemical		from scattered houses		population
	pollutants)
				I I I I

I Problem III.: Nutrient and chemical pollution in Nabajjuzi: Sources: MWLE, 2004; information from L. Iyango and R. Kaggwa; presentation of S. Namaalwa in the Mali project meeting; presentation of P. Winkler in the Delft project meeting; NatureUganda, 2008; Conclusions of the discussion on responses at the S-African and Austrian project meeting of WETwin (Loskopdam, April 2010; Lunz, November 2010; R. Kaggwa, S. Namaalwa, A. van Dam and T. Hein) I Problem V.: Non-sustainable agriculture on the upstream basin of Nabajjuzi Sources:

  are a number of factors that could increase the inflow of agrochemicals into the surface waters of AdM in the future:The low level of capacitation, given to the local farmers, in efficient agricultural practices. Because the Ministry of Environment and local NGO's financed initiatives to counter this problem have been both sporadic and specific, this problem is likely to continue.Considerable reduction of inflows is expected especially due to the planned water transfers. Additional reduction is expected during floods due to retentions by the dam.

	DSI components	Spatial scales	Description
			Present (+ near past)	Future
				upstream and riparian areas
	Reduction of inflows to the AdM	AdM	Presently, reductions of inflows to the AdM are not considered a primary concern to local Stakeholders during workshops.
			Fish farming was started in the sixties in the area of
			Santo Domingo de los Colorados with Tilapia
	Fish farming in ponds	Guayas basin	imported from Columbia. But because of the rupture
			of the pond's containment wall, most specimens
			escaped and spread over the basin.
	Loss of natural areas: deforestation	AdM		According to the ECV INEC-2006, the average AdM farmer states that 33.25% of his total production of rice
				was used for consumption, while 1.35% utilized as an
				intermediate agricultural good; 7.71% of the production
				of soft maize is consumed and 3.19% of hard maize was
				used as an intermediate agricultural good. To maintain
				this rate of consumption in the future, the growth of the
				population forces the expansion of the agricultural
				activities in the area.
	State		In the AdM region, 51.47% of households have a	As the higher urbanization in riparian areas and its expected growth rate is very limited, the problem caused
			cesspool for disposing waste, while 16.48% counts	by poor solid waste management in these areas won't
			with a sewage system for waste disposal. Garbage	become more problematic in the near future. On the other
			disposal suffers from similar problems as 47.42% of	hand, the expansion of rural upstream settlements,
	Poor solid waste management: input of domestic wastes	AdM	the total number of households counts with municipal/public garbage disposal service but, in spite of this, 50.78% of the population disposes garbage by burning it or throwing it to the	provoked by population growth, will increase the volume of solid wastes disposed improperly if local authorities fail to implement plans to improve the current capacities of the waste management systems.
			street/lot//river/stream or other places (Processed from the ECV INEC-2006). During workshops, local stake holders identified poor management of solid wastes as one of their primary concerns.	After the approval of the new Ecuadorian Constitution in 2008, River Basin Organizations gained a lot of strength, responsibilities and obligations. But until a number of legal loopholes are closed with the approval of New Water Law,
				it is difficult to predict how solid waste will be managed in
				I

  in the wetland's navigability. They identified the problem as a consequence of increased presence of water hyacinth in the area. Other workshops conducted by the Ministry of Environment (2003) confirmed this problem and declared a concern that falls directly under its jurisdiction.

	DSI components	Spatial scales	Description
			Present (+ near past)	Future
			During WETwin workshops, local stakeholders
	Navigation blockage	AdM	pointed a decline The problem will likely become more severe in the future
			In terms of the population settled on the wetland's
			surroundings, INEC ECV-2006 reported that about
			44% have eventual access to a drinking water supply.
	Water access reduction
	(for irrigation and drinking)
			For children under 5 years of age (who are the most
	Danger of water borne diseases	AdM	vulnerable group) water borne disease incidence ascends to 28.93%. Also, less than 10% of the local population has access to any form of health insurance, included	Since the current annual population growth rate for the AdM area is around 1.79%, population growth could intensify the problem in a midterm horizon.
			IESS sponsored health service.
				I

4.6 Identification of tradeoffs between ecosystem services

		vs. Water quantity	Drinking water, irrigation, navigation in the wetland
	Upstream water management (water irrigation water supply) transfer, storage,	vs.	Purification retention and nutrient	Sanitation/drinking water downstream
		vs.	Water quality	Fishing, ecosystem health and equilibrium, eco-tourism
		vs.	Water quality	Drinking water/eco-tourism
	Agriculture	vs.	Forest coverage	Ecosystem health and equilibrium, eco-tourism
	Aquaculture	vs,	Water quality	Drinking water/eco-tourism
		vs.	Water quality	Sanitation/drinking water downstream
	Urbanization of riparian
	areas	vs.	Forest coverage	Ecosystem health and equilibrium, eco-tourism
	Source: conclusions of the Mali project meeting; information from G. Villa Cox

Drivers -States -Impacts -Responses 73 I 4.

  Prior to the floods in 2000 there were about 12 farming households in the wetland. This number has increased to almost 100, Pressure for cropping land is likely to remain if population keeps increasing, due to limited alternative agricultural land unless alternative livelihood options are proposed or emigration to urban areas keeps the population stable.As a result of the 2000 flood the river bed has been shifted and large wetland areas have been destroyed. The remaining wetlands have been cleared of at least 50% of natural vegetation for crop production. The remaining natural areas are suffering of desiccation, which has been caused by drainage. Desiccation has also caused the depletion of organic matter in the peat soils thus degrading further habitats and biodiversity.Trampling by livestock has caused compaction and erosion thus damaging biodiversity and habitats.Loss of organic matter / peat and loss f nutrients. Wetland will be less productive in future. Further losses of wetland areas are expected as more and more households needing land in wetland

		DSI components DSI components	Spatial Spatial	Description Description
			scales scales	Present (+ past) Present (+ past)	Future Future
		livelihoods sources of livelihood)	settlements	livelihood options are limited by the poor transport and fertility is reduced. Loss of livelihood options derived from
				communication services natural products.
		Inadequate extension officer capacity Reduced water supply in wetland and catchment	Local GaMampa and catchment	The extension officer of the Lepelle Nkumpi municipality can only give advises to the wetland users He/she doesn't have authoritative or administrative control on wetland use. Use of drains to lower water levels in the wetland to facilitate cropping. Drainage network density increases.	The situation will be changed only by government intervention aiming at capacity development
		Farmers' lack of / poor knowledge about wetland functioning and impacts of livelihood Degraded low-flow regulatory capacity of the wetland	Local wetland + downstream areas	Limited capacity but increasing due to ongoing research and knowledge dissemination activities (e.g. by IWMI, UL) in the wetland (limited) low flow contribution by wetland	Research and knowledge dissemination likely to continue; capacity development will also continue. If business as usual mode; low flow contribution will diminish.
		activities
	Drivers	Increased cropping and grazing in the wetland	GaMampa wetland
		Poor crop, land and water management	GaMampa wetland	Artificial drainage, active tillage, uncontrolled grazing of cattle.	A possible future scenario is that of improved local capacity and therefore improved crop, land, and water management
		Wetland Ecosystem
		(Area, land use, water
		regime)
	State	river bed shifted loss of wetland areas	GaMampa wetland
		desiccation
		depletion of soil
		organic matter
		Loss of habitats and	GaMampa	Continued loss of habitats and species through clearing for	Increased loss in future due to pressure for agricultural
	Impact	biodiversity Reduced livelihoods support (destruction of	wetland GaMampa wetland	agriculture and burning. Increased loss of natural products such as reeds, sedges as land is cleared for agriculture, as grazing is increased and as	land Further losses in the future due to pressure for agricultural land
					I

Neighbouring GaMampa communities are poor; many depend on social transfers from the state and natural resource base. Alternative

No change foreseen unless there is state intervention I

  Expansion of the City of Vienna into the north western part of the Lobau, the Upper Lobau. In contrast, the Lower Lobau is a largely natural area. Sources: OPTIMA Lobau final report & personal conversation of the author Peter Winkler with Lobau specialists (Thomas Hein, Severin Hohensinner, Stefan Preiner, Elisabeth Bondar-Kunze)

		Reduction of the capability of services the floodplain to provide its	The whole floodplain	Ecosystem health, nutrient present services are restricted at reduction and flood control	Will decrease if no measures are taken
	Impacts	Changes in species diversity and distribution	The whole floodplain	Already altered species historical state from 1830 distribution compared to the	Navigation will increase Will continue if no measures are taken
		Urban development Loss of characteristic features of the floodplain Reduction of capacity to retain and purify nutrient loads Loss of biodiversity and species richness	The whole floodplain The Danube catchment downstream The whole floodplain Fertiliser use and subsequent runoff from	The Upper Lobau is a highly urbanised floodplain which has entirely lost its natural floodplain character. Characteristic features (e.g. high dynamics) are already lost Already restricted Already restricted Intense agriculture in parts	Further urbanisation is not expected due to protection of the Lobau Will continue if no measures are taken by the National park laws. Will continue if no Development depends on measures are taken the restoration measures Will continue if no to be carried out. Future development measures are taken
		Intensified Agriculture in the catchment upstream	agricultural fields leads to increased water which enters the Lobau in case of nutrient concentration in the Danube	of the Austrian and German Danube catchment	depends on agricultural policies
			floods
			The whole main channel of the Danube	Heavily modified through	Only minor changes are
		River regulation, channelization and constructions of flood a loss of ecosystem dynamics channel and the floodplain and connectivity between the main bed incision, reduction of protection dikes leads to river	River	flood protection measures occurring between 1830 and was generated during high loss of its side-rivers that the channel and subsequent channel to straightening of natural meandering river 1880, changed from a	envisaged, e.g. deepening of the river channel for the purpose of navigation
				flows and flood events
				I

The basin is prone to frequent droughts and floods. Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of extreme events in the basin.

Insufficient water supply to irrigation schemes

Irrigation scheme next to GaMampa

In case of severe droughts, because of misconception of the water intake on the river, irrigation schemes do not receive adequate supply of water. Broken and leaky canals and excessive water loss from irrigation system. As a result there was inadequate water for crop production in the irrigation scheme and consequently low yields.

NA

Reduced government support to irrigation and agriculture in general

National

In the early 1990's the government handed over all irrigation schemes to beneficiaries without the necessary transfer of skills or capacity building for the beneficiaries to be able to manage the irrigation schemes. (Previously the beneficiaries were like labourers on the schemes and did not make any management decisions). All financial support for maintenance of schemes has been removed.

The will to support the farmers is there but local government (provincial and municipal) seems to lack the capacity to support these farmers. For example, the irrigation scheme rehabilitation at GaMampa started five years ago but so far only the fencing of the plots has taken place. Agricultural extension services in South Africa are still in a poor state.

Irrigation Scheme collapsed

Irrigation scheme

The flood in 2000 destroyed irrigation infrastructure (weir); interrupting water supply to the irrigation scheme plots.

The weir has been rebuilt since but the state of the distribution canals is still very poor.

Further, the canals conveying water to the plots are damaged, and have leakages. This reduces the efficiency of water delivery to the irrigation scheme. Consequently yields of the main staple crop (maize) remain very low.

Irrigation scheme may be revitalized; state of management not certain.

Uncoordinated legislation and policy