Valentina Nikolova
email: v.nikolova@mgu.bg

Plamena Zlateva
email: plamzlateva@abv.bg

Assessment of Flood Vulnerability Using Fuzzy Logic and Geographical Information Systems

Keywords: River Flood Vulnerability, GIS, Overlay Analysis, Fuzzy Logic

The assessment of river flood vulnerability requires analysis of the whole physical-geographical environment, and taking into account the interaction between all natural and social-economic components of the study area. In the current paper a flood vulnerability map is elaborated in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) environment using fuzzy logic overlay analysis. Precipitation, distance from streams, flow accumulation, lithology, land use, slopes and altitude are considered and analysed as factors influencing the floods. In particular, the proposed methodology for an assessment of flood vulnerability by fuzzy logic is applied for the catchment of the river Luda Kamchia. This river is situated in the Eastern Bulgaria, Europa. It takes about 1600 square kilometers. The relief is mainly low-mountainous and the annual amount of precipitation is between 600 and 800 mm, influenced by the Black sea in the eastern part of the river basin. Proposed methodology for the assessment of river flood vulnerability and elaboration of maps of flood vulnerability by fuzzy logic overlay analysis in GIS environment is a first step in development of the information system for integrated risk assessment from natural disasters.

Introduction

The increasing cases of river floods in global scale and damages caused by them determine the importance of the problem. For these reasons, it is need for more detailed study of the floods factors. The floods are one of the most widespread natural disasters with natural and social components. The assessment of flood vulnerability requires analysis of the completely physical-geographical environment and taking into account the interaction between all natural components of the area [START_REF] Kazakis | Assessment of flood hazard areas at a regional scale using an index-based approach and analytical hierarchy process: Application in Rhodope-Evros region, Greece[END_REF]. Social and economic infrastructures also should be taken in consideration, particularly in flood risk assessment and mitigation. A large amount of quantitative data about river runoff, precipitation, river basin hydrological and morphometric features have to be processed. The interpretation of available data and analysis of hydro-climatic factors of floods are in relation of lithology, soils, relief and land use of the river basin. In this regard, the used methods in investigation of river flood susceptibility could be divided in the three groups: mathematic-statistical; geographical-spatial analysis and modelling. The use of GIS technology allows processing of large amounts of data and optimization of the decision-making process [START_REF] Kourgialas | Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas-a case study[END_REF]. The application of remote sensing gives information as about difficult accessible areas as well as about large areas and could be shortened the research time.

There are many researches about flood susceptibility, flood vulnerability/ hazard and risk assessment using GIS and remote sensing [START_REF] Kundu | Flood vulnerability assessment using participatory GIS approach[END_REF][START_REF] Kafira | Flood susceptibility assessment using G.I.S. An example from Kassandra peninsula, Halkidiki, Greece[END_REF]. The development of technology and seeking more detailed investigation of flood parameters, even in areas that are difficult to access, determine developing of the research of flood susceptibility, flood hazard and risk, and wider application of remote sensing methods and GIS [START_REF] Wang | Using Landsat 7 TM data acquired days after a flood event to delineate the maximum flood extent on a coastal floodplain[END_REF][START_REF] Lacava | Improving flood monitoring by the Robust AVHRR Technique (RAT) approach: The case of the April 2000 Hungary flood[END_REF][START_REF] Mallinis | An object-based approach for flood area delineation in a transboundary area using ENVISAT ASAR and LANDSAT TM data[END_REF].

Different floods influencing factors are considered in the publications, for example distance from the river, lithology, rainfall, land use/ land cover (LULC), soil type, stream power index, topographic wetness index, rainfall, slope, morphometric parameters of the catchment and also socioeconomic impacts of flooding. The factors are chosen depends on expert's view on the natural processes and having regard environmental properties of the research area, interaction between natural components and morphometric features of the drainage basin. One of the main question in flood investigation is which factors have significant influence on flood occurrences and flood parameters and how to determine the weights of each factor. Other important question considered in the literature is about the meaning of the main concepts: flood susceptibility, vulnerability, hazard and risk. Often susceptibility and vulnerability are used with the same meaning though the susceptibility is considered as a possibility that the event could be happen and the vulnerability is the sensitivity degree toward a natural hazard, associated to the exposure to a catastrophic event and combined with the human ability to resist. Flood hazard is associated with the probability of a flood event. According to the Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks "flood risk" means the combination of the probability of a flood event and of the potential adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity.

There are many qualitative and quantitative methods for the flood vulnerability assessment. However, it is necessary to point out, that the assessment of the flood vulnerability is done under the subjective and uncertain conditions (for example, there are short records or only few measured points) [START_REF] Papaioannou | Multi-criteria analysis Framework for potential flood prone areas mapping[END_REF]. The fuzzy logic approach is an appropriate tool for flood vulnerability assessment [START_REF] Yeganeh | Flood vulnerability assessment in Iskandar Malaysia using multicriteria evaluation and fuzzy logic[END_REF]. This approach provides adequate processing the expert knowledge and uncertain quantitative data [START_REF] Zimmerman | Fuzzy set theory and it applications[END_REF][START_REF] Zlateva | Complex risk analysis of natural hazards through fuzzy logic[END_REF]. The fuzzy logic, implemented in GIS environment is used as an overlay technique when there are inaccuracies in attribute and in the geometry of spatial data [START_REF] Leonardi | Landslide susceptibility mapping using a fuzzy approach[END_REF][START_REF] Jiang | Risk assessment and validation of flood disaster based on fuzzy mathematics[END_REF][START_REF] Fotis | Estimation of the prefecture of Evros vulnerability in flood cases using GIS and fuzzy set algebra[END_REF][START_REF] Perera | Fuzzy logic based flood forecasting model for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia[END_REF].

The aim of the current research is to show the advantages of the fuzzy logic approach and geographic information systems (GIS) in assessment of flood vulnerability and to build a GIS data base to be used in decision making for flood vulnerability / flood hazard management. The flood vulnerability map will be elaborated in GIS environment using multi-criteria analysis and fuzzy logic. Precipitation, distance from streams, flow accumulation, lithology, land use, slopes and altitude will be considered and analysed as factors influencing the floods.

Data and Methodology

The flood assessment and flood vulnerability map of the river basin are done in GIS environment (ArcGIS, ESRI Inc.). ArcGIS Spatial analyst tools -Overlay is used for determining areas prone to floods in different rate. Data about relief, precipitation, lithology, drainage network and LULC is used for that purpose. The analysis is made for the whole river basin. Using the basin approach is the most logical approach in flood assessment because all hydrological and geological-geomorphological components of the area strongly interact in the frame of the catchment. In this study, the flood vulnerability model is constructed through following two main etaps:

 Determining the river catchment area  Determining the factors with significant influence of the floods

Determining the River Catchment Area

The drainage network and watershed are delineated on the base of ASTER GDEM (a product of METI and NASA) with 30 m horizontal resolution using Hydrology tool of ArcGIS Spatial analyst and following the sequence: Quality of data raster; Project raster; Filling sinks and removing inaccuracies; Flow direction; Basin; Flow accumulation; Stream raster. Stream raster is calculated applying Map algebra (ArcGIS Spatial Analyst Tools) on flow accumulation raster. The main question in stream raster generation is: what is the threshold value of the area from which a stream could be formed. The value could be different depends on the relief of the area and the factors of erosion. The horizontal resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM) has also to be taken into account. All cells with a value less than the determined threshold value receive a value 0 (they don't form a stream) and others 1 (there is a stream).

Determining the Factors with Significant Influence of the Floods

Having regard the researches published in this field there are many factors that could cause the floods. Floods are complex natural phenomena depending on hydrological, geological-geomorphological, soils and land use / land cover peculiarities.

Taking into account the specific features of the research geographical area and limited available data, the following seven parameters are considered as main flood influencing factors: rainfall intensity, flow accumulation, distance from stream, lithology, LULC, slope and altitude.

Rainfall intensity. Rainfall and particularly intensive rainfall have a major role for flood occurrence. An intensive rain even for a short time can cause floods more that light rain during several days. Of course, the time for drainage of surface water is in the relation of the form of the river basin, stream density, soil/rock permeability and vegetation. The rainfall intensity is presented by modified Fournier index (MFI), calculated as the sum of monthly average amount of precipitation divided to the average annual amount of precipitation [START_REF] Arnoldus | An approximation of rainfall factor in the universal soil loss equation[END_REF].

Flow accumulation.

It is an indicator for the water quantity of the area. Flow accumulation is determined on the base of the DEM and presents the accumulated flow in each cell of the raster. The value of the cell shows the number of the cells from which the flow is accumulated. If the flow accumulation is 0 then there is no runoff. The runoff is increased at greater values of flow accumulation.

Distance from stream. The distance from streams as a flood factor should be assessed in relation to the possibility the high waters to flood adjacent areas and to the time for which the surface (slope) flows reach the riverbeds.

Lithology. The rocks composition, their grain-size and physical properties determine the rocks permeability, which is of great importance for flood occurrences. High permeable rocks favor water infiltration and ground flow while less permeable rocks favor surface flow and at horizontal or low slope areas are factors for high flood vulnerability.

LULC. The type of land cover influences the time to drain the slope runoff. Forests favor the infiltration of rainwater in soils and prevent fast surface runoff. In this way, they decrease the probability of floods. Arable lands, grasslands and sparsely vegetated areas have less hydrological role and could favor floods occurrence in case of appropriate topographic conditions and intensive rains.

Slope and altitude.

The altitude and slope of the catchment area determine the hydroclimatic conditions. Usually high elevated areas have more precipitation which is a prerequisite for higher river runoff, but on the other side valleys and lowlands (with altitude less than 200 m) are more prone to floods because they facilitate the river overflow in case of high water. The elevation and slope influence on the most of cases on the speed of the water flow and development of erosion processes. It is need to point that the prerequisites for floods are more in cases of low and flat areas in comparison with the elevated areas with high slope .

Fuzzy Logic Overlay Analysis

The concept of the fuzzy logic is proposed by Zadeh in 1965 [START_REF] Zadeh | Fuzzy sets[END_REF]. It is developed around the basic idea of so-called fuzzy sets or membership function. Fuzzy set theory is regarded as an extension of classical set theory. It enables the processing of imprecise information by means of membership functions, in contrast to Boolean transformations. Usually the membership functions is assigned 0 to false values and 1 to true ones, but fuzzy logic also allows in-between values [START_REF] Zimmerman | Fuzzy set theory and it applications[END_REF].

Here, the main idea is to assess the flood vulnerability by applying fuzzy logic in respect to the several flood factors. As a result, a flood vulnerability map is created in GIS environment.

According proposed methodology the fuzzy logic overlay is applied in GIS environment each one of flood factors is entered in GIS database as a separate layer. All vector layers (rainfall intensity, lithology, LCLU, etc.) are converted in raster surfaces. The next step is to create fuzzy membership raster at which the input raster is transformed a 0 to 1 scale, indicating the strength of a membership in a set, based on a specified fuzzification functions. These functions are applied to the initially created rasters for rainfall intensity, distance from streams, flow accumulation, slope and altitude. For lithology and LULC which present qualitative information (not quantitative) the reclassified rasters (values from 1 to 5 according to the susceptibility of floods) are used as membership input rasters. A reclassified distance from stream raster (rates from 1 to 5) is also used to create a membership raster. The applied membership type for slope and altitude is "small" and for the other factors we applied "large" taking into account the nature of the modelled feature and spatial distribution of the values. After creating fuzzy membership layers a fuzzy overlay is applied. The values of the resulted flood vulnerability, presented in the output raster, are classified in 5 classes (1 very low vulnerability to 5very high vulnerability) using natural breaks classification method.

Case Study: The River Luda Kamchia Basin

The above described methodology is applied for the river Luda Kamchia basin. It is situated in the Eastern Bulgaria and is a part of the river Kamchia basin (see Error! Reference source not found.).

The river Kamchia is the largest Bulgarian river which flows into the Black Sea. The study area is about 1600 km2. The form of the basin is long and narrow, and it is a bit larger in the low part which could be a prerequisite for floods in the low part of the river basin. The relief is predominantly low-mountainous (600 -1000 m above sea level) and includes Kotlenska, Varbishka and Karnobatska mountains. The highest point of the watershed is peak Bulgarka (1181 m). About the lithology the most part of the river basin is built of alternation of carbonate and non-carbonate rocks. The drainage network of the river Luda Kamchia catchment is well developed. The streams density is about 1 -1.5 km/km2 and it increases to 2 km/km2 in the western higher part of the study area. The annual amount of precipitation is about 600 to 800 mm. The maximum is observed in May -June and November -December. Forests cover about 88% of the total area of the river basin. Non-irrigated arable land takes nearly 4% of the area and other types of land use are less than 2% each of the river basin. Settlements have 0.45% of the investigated area. In this relation forests are the land use/land cover type with the highest influence for runoff and water quantity of the catchment.

3.2

Flood Factors for River Luda Kamchia Basin Rainfall intensity. In the current research the precipitation data for 30 years period is taken from precipitation reference book, published by Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. There are only 4 meteorological stations in the river Luda Kamchia basin and other 5 stations, located near to the investigated area are also used in the analysis. The spatial distribution of the MFI is done by inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation. The results show not very high intensity of rainfall. The values of the MFI are between 50.64 and 70.12. In this case we reclassified the output raster in 3 classes using natural breaks classification method: 1with very low importance for flood occurrence; 2low and 3moderate. where all cells with value less than 25 700 received value of 1 (very small importance for flood occurrences) and these with value great than 1 700 300 received value 5 (very high importance for flood occurrence). The values between 25 700 and 1 700 300 are divided in 3 classes (with rates 2, 3 and 4) using natural breaks method.

Distance from streams. Five flood vulnerability intervals are set according to the Table 1. The stream density and the type of the relief are taken into account in determining the distance from streams as a flood factor. The distance zones are determined using ArcGIS Analysis Tools -Proximity -Multiple Ring Buffer and evaluated to the flood vulnerability. The values of 1 to 5 are added to the generated polygons to show the vulnerability of each polygon to floods. Lithology. The information about the lithology is taken from the geological map, scale 1:200000 and is entered in the GIS environment as a polygon layer. Having regard the physical-mechanical properties and chemical composition of the rocks they are divided into 5 groups: unconsolidated non-carbonate rocks; consolidated carbonate rocks; consolidated non-carbonate rocks; alternation of carbonate and non-carbonate rocks; volcanic rocks [START_REF] Nikolova | Determining of the morpholithology yypes in the Kamchia River Basin (Eastern Bulgaria) by means of Geographic Information System (GIS)[END_REF]. These groups are rated to flood vulnerability as follow (see Table 2). Unconsolidated non-carbonate rocks (gravel and sand) are accumulated in the lower part of the river valleys. Though the high permeability of sand they have high flood vulnerability rate because of the high level of ground water. The gorge nature of Luda Kamchia River is a reason for weak accumulation and limited distribution of the alluvial deposits in this part of the catchment area. Consolidated carbonate rocks (limestones, dolomites, sandy and marlly limestones) have limited distribution in the river Luda Kamchia basin, mainly in Kotlenska mountain (the Northern high part of the catchment) and in some areas to the East, in the low part of the river basin. Karst relief could be a prerequisite for flash floods but having regard the morphometric properties of the river basin and limited area of these rocks they are rated as low flood susceptibility. Consolidated non-carbonate rocks are presented by clay-sandy slates, sandstones, conglomerates and clays, and they are a good condition for surface runoff. These rocks are slightly spread in the Luda Kamchia River catchment. Larger areas could be found in the low part of the basin after the Kamchia dam. A considerable part of the river Luda Kamchia catchment is built by alternations of carbonate and non-carbonate rocks (slates and sandy limestones, clayey marls and limestones, clayey-sandy slates). Volcanic rocks are presented by tuffs and andesites. They have limited distribution at southern slopes of Kamchiiska Mountain, the low part of the drainage basin.

LULC. The information about the LULC types in the catchment of the river Luda Kamchia are given in Table 3. The types are determined by CORINE Land Cover 2012 project. The largest area of the basin is covered by forests take (about 88%). This fact significantly decreases the vulnerability to floods. Arable lands, vineyards, pastures and shrubs which are not big obstacle for surface runoff and could facilitate floods have around 6% of the area. The sparsely vegetated areas which are rated as high vulnerability to floods areas takes less than 1% of the investigated basin. Urban areas, industrial sites are not taken into evaluation because of the scale of the research and lack of information about the infrastructure. Water bodies (dams) also are not evaluated. Slope. The slopes are calculated in ArcGIS on the base of DEM. For the most of the catchment of the river Luda Kamchia they are in the interval 3 -10 degree followed by 0 -3 degree. Steep areas 25 -44 degree take a limited part of the basin. Five slope intervals are determined having regard the morphometric features of the river basin and rated to flood vulnerability (see Table 4). Altitude. The relief of the river Luda Kamchia basin is predominantly low mountainous. The highest point is 1181 m. The altitude zone of 200 to 600 m is 65% of the whole basin. The areas elevated above 1000 m are nearly 0.55%. The hilly lands favor fast surface runoff to the river beds and could be considered as areas with high to moderate vulnerability to floods. In this regard and taking into account the relief of the area we determined 5 altitude intervals rated to the flood vulnerability (see Table 5).

Results and Flood Vulnerability Map

Application of fuzzy logic overlay analysis allows to consider the combined effect of flood factors. As a result a flood vulnerability map is created (see Figure 2). The fuzzy logic overlay analysis shows moderate flood vulnerability in the predominant areas of the river basin. The values of the flood vulnerability rate are a bit higher in the low part of the river basin and also in the central part, at the drainage area of right tributary of the river Luda Kamchia, after Kamchia dam. This is related with the horizontal topographic surface (slope between 0̊ and 3) and also with the physical properties of the rocksconsolidated non-carbonate rocks. The high flood vulnerabiity on the limited part of the slopes of Kotlenska mountain (western part of the river basin) could be explained mainly with the higher rainfall intensity and lithology presented by alternation of carbonate and non-carbonate rocks. Applying fuzzy logic overlay shows in generally higher flood susceptibility near to the river beds. The form of the river basin, which is narrow at the central part and wider in the low part is a prerequisite for accumulation of higher water quantity in the low part of the river basin which could cause floods.

The results about the flood susceptibility in the river Luda Kamchia catchment are subject of future investigation. More attention should be given to the removing data imperfection and interpreting the results of the analysis of flood influencing factors. The number of factors is not limited and additional factors could be considered too. The built GIS data base is open and other information could be entered. About the flood cases in the past periods the published data is not enough and it does not present the time and spatial characteristics of this nature phenomenon. The analysis of the flood influencing factors show that they could facilitate flood occurrence. The questionnaires about floods in the river Luda Kamchia basin show the floods happen often in the valley of the river Luda Kamchia. The lack of the published data about big floods in the investigated area could be explained with the geomorphological features of the river basin which are not favorable for wide floods and also with the experience of the local people to organise their activity out of the risk zones.

Conclusions

The river flood vulnerability map created by fuzzy logic overlay analysis shows that the river Luda Kamchia basin is not under the great threat of floods though there are different segments of the river valleys with high flood vulnerability. In this regard the flood influencing factors should be taken into account in regional development and planning. The both big dams (Kamchia, in the central part of the basin and Tsonevo, in the low part of the river basin) control the river runoff and decrease the risk of floods but have to be properly managed. More attention should be given to the determining of flood factors and their weights, taking into account their importance for flood occurrences and interaction between different factors. Application of GIS technology allows processing of a large amount of data and optimizing the decision making. The built GIS data base includes information about drainage network, river basin boundary, relief, slopes, lithology, precipitation, flow accumulation and LULC. The system is open and could be completed with other environmental and economic features that effect on the foods.

The assessment of river flood vulnerability and elaboration of maps of flood vulnerability by fuzzy logic overlay analysis is a first step in development of the information system for integrated risk assessment from natural disasters.

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. A Case study: The River Luda Kamchia Basin.

Fig. 2 .

 2 Fig. 2. Flood vulnerability map using fuzzy logic overlay.

Table 1 .

 1 Flood vulnerability according to the distance from stream

	Distance from stream (m)	Flood vulnerability
	0 -50	5 -very high
	50 -150	4 -high
	150 -300	3 -moderate
	300 -500	2 -low
	more than 500	1 -very low

Table 2 .

 2 Flood vulnerability determined by lithology

	Rocks	Flood vulnerability
	Unconsolidated non-carbonate rocks	4 -high
	Consolidated carbonate rocks	2 -low
	Consolidated non-carbonate rocks	5 -very high
	Alternation of carbonate and non-carbonate rocks	4 -high
	Volcanic rocks	4 -high

Table 3 .

 3 LULC flood vulnerability

	LULC	Flood vulnerability
	Urban areas	Not evaluated
	Industrial or commercial units	Not evaluated
	Mineral extraction sites	Not evaluated
	Sport and leisure facilities	Not evaluated
	Non-irrigated arable land	3 -moderate
	Vineyards	3 -moderate
	Fruit trees and berry plantations	2 -low
	Pastures	3 -moderate
	Complex cultivation patterns	3 -moderate
	Land principally occupied by agriculture
	with significant areas of natural vegetation	3-moderate
	Broad-leaved forest	1 -very low
	Coniferous forest	2 -low
	Mixed forest	1 -very low
	Natural grassland	3 -moderate
	Transitional woodland/shrub	3 -moderate
	Sparsely vegetated areas	4 -high
	Water bodies	Not evaluated

Table 4 .

 4 Flood vulnerability determined by slopes

	Slopes in degree	Flood vulnerability
	0 -3	5 -very high
	3 -10	4 -high
	10 -18	3 -moderate
	18 -25	2 -low
	25 -44	1 -very low

Table 5 .

 5 Flood vulnerability determined by altitude

	Altitude (m)	Flood vulnerability
	< 100	5 -very high
	100 -200	4 -high
	200 -600	3 -moderate
	600 -1000	2 -low
	> 1000	1 -very low
	3.3

Acknowledgement

The authors express their gratitude to the Bulgarian National Science Fund for the partial financial support under the Grant № DFNI -I02/15 from 12.12.2014, titled "Information System for Integrated Risk Assessment from Natural Disasters".


Orlin Nikolov
email: orlin.nikolov@cmdrcoe.org

Nikolay Tomov
email: nikolay.tomov@bulsim.org

Irena Nikolova
email: irena.nikolova@mail.space.bas.bg

M&S Support for Crisis and Disaster Management Processes and Climate Change Implications

Keywords: CAX, Crisis Management, Disaster response, Comprehensive Approach, NATO-EU Cooperation, Civil-Military Interoperability, Interagency cooperation, Multinational Exercise, Smart defence, Pooling and Sharing, Risk reduction. Technical architecture, Simulation

This paper addresses the efforts of NATO, EU and other regional initiatives to support education and training for better understanding the Crisis and Disasters Management processes (CDMP) and Climate Change Implications (CCI) on Military activities. The article tackles the question of applying Modeling and Simulation systems, tools, software and practises as a complex combination of live, virtual, and constructive environment not only to predict the trends, but to identify the source in a particular situation. Currently in NATO (according the Action plan on M&S in support of military training) there is a significant gap in estimation, forecast, and response plan generation capabilities related to crisis and disaster management and climate change implication. The development of a specific technical platform for CDMP &CCI will provide NATO&EU with a unique comprehensive training and analytical capability. This platform is expected to enable the support of large scale crisis management and disaster response distributed exercises and analysis with specific tools and simulations for different types of Crisis and Disasters situations. This would enhance the quality of training of the militaries and will provide a critical new capability for Allies.

Introduction

The responsibility for crisis management and disaster response differs for every nation and may involve various ministries and agencies. It is also a core task of the Alliance. Today, the Alliance is able to make decisions in crisis and emergency situations and to act under significant threats and time pressure. NATO develops capabilities to be prepared, on a case-by-case basis and by consensus, to contribute in effective crisis and disaster prevention. This enables the Alliance to engage actively in crisis management and disaster response referring to non-Article 5 for crisis response operations. The Alliance therefore encourages the joint training of military and civilian personnel for building trust and confidence. NATO's role in crisis management and disaster response goes beyond military operations and includes crisis and disaster response operations against natural or manmade disasters. A crisis can be political, military, social or humanitarian, and therefore NATO Crisis Response System covers different resources and capabilities of dealing with diverse types of crises, including disaster response.

Based on the perception that military intervention alone cannot resolve a crisis or ensure recovery after disasters, the NATO Summit Declarations and the Strategic Concept emphasizes the need for NATO to enhance its contribution to the Comprehensive Approach to crisis management. The goal is to enhance the Alliance and Nations' civilian and military capabilities for crisis management and disaster response.

Virtual reality, artificial intelligence algorithms, simulation of alternatives based on different scenarios, add high potential to risk analysis and assessment. With the support of modeling and simulation, various conditions could be created for: a holistic analysis, further development of existing methodologies, models, infrastructure, validation of working hypotheses by means of creating the environment for designing, testing and managing architectures of different systems, building models of systems, testing of specific criteria, running process optimisation, experimentation, assisting informative decision-making, etc.

Design and development of a simulation environment for natural disaster risk assessment include the need for realistic visualization of the impact from the concrete natural disaster, visualization of the affected groups and their capabilities (reaction time, scope of the disaster and potential negative impact, available resources, etc.) and precision in forecasting. Additionally, presenting the effects and impact on the population and on the environment as a result of real-time decision-making is almost impossible to be executed with traditional means. A very important activity is the analysis of the cooperation among all responsible stakeholders, dealing with natural disaster risk assessment.

Applying modeling and simulation for the preparation of all-levels authorities in disaster management becomes one of the most effective methods for education and training, which allows, with the use of minimum resources, the evaluation of the current level of preparedness and readiness of the national and institutional forces and resources.

The challenges that the Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Information System faces create the need for new preparation methods aiming to ensure maximum results with the use of minimum resources. This imposes the adaptation of available forces and resources to work in a joint multinational environment consistent with the requirements for speed, precision and flexibility. Subsequently, the requirements towards the system, considering the work in a joint multinational environment, will continue to increase demanding full interoperability. New doctrines and procedures concerning risk assessment and the mitigation of the negative impact caused by natural disasters have to be developed alongside the new systematic preparedness programmes.

Modeling and simulation in crisis management and disaster risk assessment is applied in order to recreate imaginary critical situations. Modeling and simulation are becoming even more popular nowadays given the current level of societal development and the penetration of modern technologies in all academic, applied and socio-economic areas. Modern technologies enable the recreation of the reality into virtual reality with training purposes. Virtual reality is used to recreate specific events (terrorist attack, natural disaster, social anomaly) which is to serve the users to assess and be prepared in case similar potential real events occur.

Disasters Impact on People

In recent years, an increase in the number and the magnitude of man-made or natural disasters has been recorded around the world and particularly in Bulgaria. An increase in the negative effects of disasters on the social relations, the economic growth and the sustainable development of the countries is also registered.

According to the type of hazard, disasters can be generally classified in the listed groups bellow (The Human Cost of Weather-Related Disasters 1995-2015). The report focus on hydrological, meteorological and climatological disasters, which are collectively known as weather-related disasters (see Fig. 1). The human losses caused by weather-related disasters depend on multiple factors, including the type of hazard, its location, duration and the size and vulnerability of the population. The basic economic impacts, including homes and infrastructure damaged and destroyed, must also be considered. Other costs, including repairs, rehabilitation and rebuilding expenditure, plus lost productivity and increased poverty, are harder to quantify but nevertheless must be taken into account when analysing the overall economic burden of disasters. The figure 2 shows that people are mainly affected by disasters such as flooding and drought. When causes for deaths are analyzed the situation is completely different. Storms and Extreme temperature are main "killers". Storms, including hurricanes, cyclones and storm surges, killed more than 242,000 people between 1995 and 2015 (see Fig. 3), making storms the most deadly type of weather-related disaster in the last 21 years.

 Natural Hazards by

Scientific results suggest that climate change will increase the upward trend in the numbers of floods and storms worldwide, while the population that needs protection will increase at the same rate as population growth in disaster-prone regions. On the positive side, weather forecasting has made extraordinary progress in recent years, with predictions highly reliable within a 48-hour period. In the face of climate change, we may not be able to stem the increased frequency of storms, but better risk management and mitigation could reduce deaths and other heavy losses caused by those predictable hazards.

Fig. 3. Number of people killed in disasters type

Modeling & Simulation for NATO Crises Management and Disaster Response Support

Managing crisis situations is a priority not only at national level, but also at NATO and EU level.

Crisis situations may entail large-scale incidents forcing the evacuation of civilian population and other drastic safety measures. Due to the scale of crisis situations a great number of managing bodies from different institutions are involved in the decisionmaking process. The actions taken by each responsible organisation -army force, police, civil protection, fire and medical units, as well as the voluntary units, have to be adequately coordinated and planned in advance in order to ensure rapid and effective response. To reach optimal effectiveness and efficiency in the actions undertaken, these forces have to be well-trained. The preparedness of the forces and the rapid allocation of resources during crisis situations cannot be achieved without regular training and exercises.

At the same time, the rapid development of modern technologies has led to a broad application of modeling and simulation methodologies and tools in risk assessment, disaster management and training of teams and decision-makers. Simulation possesses high potential serves as a catalyst in the process of human capacity-building using innovations and experiments in training, evaluation of alternatives and validation of concepts, methodologies and procedures.

Their main purpose is to create, based on high-level architecture and technology, the specific conditions for individual training, coordination of actions at any level, as well as support decision-making on risk reduction and eliminate the impact of disasters.

The successful application of simulations in disaster risk assessment and the improvement in the preparation and qualification of staff members could enable various scenarios analyses, put the focus on preventive actions and enhance decision-making during natural disasters and emergencies. The analysed information allows higher precision in risk and impact assessment of emergency situations and increases the effectiveness of the rescue and recovery activities.

However, the capabilities of the CMDR Training and Climate Changes preparedness can be greatly enhanced by the utilization of the application of crisis management and disaster response tools, software and simulation systems.

The developed M&S environment will have its initial operational capability (IOC) established and operational in time to support the planned NATO Crisis Management Exercises, as well as any regional Network projects or exercises and trainings.

The integration of all mentioned aspects will add value to NATO force structure in order to be well prepared for the next conflict by supporting capability building; improving interoperability and support of capability development with education and training for NATO and partner leaders and units; testing doctrines; developing and validating concepts through experimentation; providing lessons learned, evaluations and assessments.

Integrated (Distributed) CDMP &CCI Simulation Platform

The The realization of a CDMP &CCI simulation platform from the management point of view is a complex activity which requires specific efforts in the area of the management and planning. In this regard, the Platform development should be planned and executed according to the Project Management Approach, using PRINCE2 as a specific organization dedicated to deliver its specific results/objectives. PRINCE2 (PRojects IN Controlled Environments) is the most widely practiced project management methodology, based upon project management best practices and used in over 150 countries and NATO. PRINCE2 provides common systems, procedures and language.

The achievement of the objectives of the CDMP &CCI simulation platform design, development and realization is ensured by good project management, which defines the exercise goals, organises the work packages and assigns the workload to highly motivated, qualified and experienced teams.

The specific benefits are as follows:

 CDMP &CCI simulation platform implementation in scope, in time and in budget;  Transparency, distinct distribution of responsibilities and assessment of deliverables and achieved results at each stage;  More effective and efficient resource management;  Storing data and knowledge bases.

Trends in the Simulation Solutions for Disaster Risk Assessment

Tendencies in the development of simulation solutions for disaster risk assessment are focused on the improvement of standards, services, communication, equipment and software, training, education and technical knowledge, necessary for the successful design and maintenance of a complex modeling and simulation program and for achieving maximum benefit from their utilisation. A common technical environment enables the identification of standards for the use of modeling and simulation software which determines the technical architecture, including the type of interface of the additional programme applications.

The simulation architecture consists of main functional elements, interfaces and programming rules applicable to all simulation applications. It provides the general framework within which specific system architectures and higher-level architectures can be defined and made functional.

Data standards are used in creating, publishing and guiding the actions, procedures and the methodologies for defining the data requirements used in modeling and simulation. These requirements include data exchange, verification, validation and accreditation standards, and also standards for authorisation data sources and ensuring data security. Data standards improve the interoperability between modeling and simulation providing data and command, control, communication, computer and intelligence (C4I) systems.

7

Knowledge and Expertise in Simulation Development Technologies

The acquisition and development of simulations with the aim of meeting a wide spectrum of users' needs is a very challenging task. The possibility of simulating exercises at any level, where the switching between different levels is performed in different simulation systems and simulators, reaching the demands of the individual training, is a highly complex task. The usage of simulation systems ensuring Live Simulation, Virtual and Constructive Simulation brings to a qualitative new level the process of modeling and simulation. Each simulation is applied to different trainings, exercises and games. The 'Serious games' type will contribute to the specific procedures and missions of the training.

Technology evolves quickly and enables the increase in general effectiveness of the modeling and simulation. In order for the Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Information System to benefit from modern technologies, a constant research on their development has to be conducted. This process includes gaining knowledge on modeling and simulation, creating education database by referring to periodicals, participation in conferences, international programs, expert exchange and participation in international exercises conducted in a distributed manner.

8

Remote Training and Distributed Exercises

Conducting distributed CAX using a simulation module enables financial and material savings to be made as trainees will participate in the trainings from different locations. Effectively, the new joint capabilities enable the conduct of joint exercises run by various structures of different institutions and organisations without the need of physical presence at a specific location. The goal is to establish a joint information system for training capabilities development, analysis and assessment using the entire spectrum of real, virtual and constructive simulations.

Capability Analysis of Simulation Instruments for a Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Analysis conducted with the use of simulation provides the opportunity for almost comprehensive risk assessment, applying various probability and intelligent methods, with integrating diverse types of data and expertise in a context of subjectivity and incomplete certainty. Through simulation the theory easily turns into practice and enables people to use the pragmatic method in analysing and improving their work.

In order to create a 'Simulation' module as part of the Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Information System the necessary software and simulation systems have to be selected and to be connected into a common environment. The expectation that a single software can encompass all natural disasters is a more or less unachievable task considering the current state of the technologies. Globally, a number of simulation systems and software exist, which are designed to solve different tasks for anticipating and mitigating the risk of various natural and man-made disaster and for crises management in case such events occurred.

Exploring the simulation systems and software, with the aim of selecting the most appropriate combination for the purpose of training staff members in a close to the reality environment during a specific type of a natural disaster, and connecting them in a common environment in which different scenarios can be simulated, is a promising approach that could save time and resources.

The current practices shows that it is almost impossible, and unnecessary for that matter, to create a simulation model that includes all levels -from tactical to strategic. Overall, the trainees exercise different types of activities and it is not necessary for the high level authorities to be able to manage local finances, but rather to know what has to be the contribution for achieving a positive result.

Last but not least, attention should be paid to the fact that disasters are diverse and cyclic as well as differing from one geographic latitude to another. If, for the region of North America, typhoons and hurricanes are a widely spread disaster, for Europe these are floods, for Asiaearthquakes, and droughts for Africa.

The common trait of all these is that they are measured against material, financial and, almost in all cases, human life losses.

Due to the aforementioned reasons, to design and develop a stand-alone product for an integrated risk assessment covering all types of disasters is a heavy and unpractical task.

The integration of software products in a common environment is expected to contribute for tackling the aforementioned issue. Transferring scenarios, forces and resources, which may be observed on different simulation systems is an easier option for solving the generality issue of the task.

Solving this problem is imperative also because disasters know no borders and can easily spread from one country to another, and because the responsibilities for different disasters are shared by different ministries and institutions. Therefore, interagency cooperation and interaction is of crucial importance and simulation products provide the best result in training the management staff from different ministries in a realistic uniform environment.

Criteria for Selection of Simulation Instruments and Solutions for Disaster Risk Assessment

Well fitted simulation instruments suitable for risk assessment of various types of natural disasters on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria -flood simulation, fire simulation, CBR contamination, evacuation simulation, etc. have been identified. The analysed simulation products and solutions, covering specific areas, were ranked in the following manner:

 Selected simulation solutions applicable to the natural disaster risk assessment for the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria based on historical data on the frequency of occurrence of these and other anticipated disasters as a result of climate change;  Selected simulation solutions on the basis of the criterion 'available open source solution information';  Selected simulation solutions on the basis of 'information received from providers of simulation solutions';  Selected simulation solutions on the basis of 'expertise'.

NATO computer supported capabilities dealing with CDM&CCI

The The project combines NATO Crisis Response Process with industrial theory for system control in predefined parameters. The task is of significantly large scale and is divided into subtasks and spread among NATO Nations, bodies, organizations and partners.

The three phases of the project will be synchronized to move forward at the most rapid pace possible.

Phase 1 is planned to take 12 months and will result in the development of a Master Plan to guide and direct this project. It would also identify all the requirements, products and specifications for support of the crisis management and disaster response technical platform for M&S.

Phase 2 is planned to take twelve months and will result in building the initial operational capability (IOC) of the crisis management and disaster response technical platform. Planning of the experiments, verification and training for CMXs would be conducted as well during this phase.

Phase 3 is planned to take twelve months aiming to achieve successful execution of CM exercises and analysis efforts as part of the operational support of the crisis management and disaster response technical platform. During this phase, experienced subject matter experts will support the improvement of the platform. They would also conduct advance training for using the fielded simulations and tools.

The technology matureness has reciprocal effect to the command and control logic. Implementation of such developed technical products in NATO Crisis and Disaster Management process will smarten up it and that is one of the aims of MSG-147.

The project has three main directions for analyzing CDM in NATO in order to improve the E&T and support of the decision making process in the Alliance: The following components should be developed in order to achieve the above mentioned results:  Input Data Module -database for statistical (history) and real-time data. The database should have standard properties and interface.

 First
 Disaster Model Enginecombines input interface (accept data from the database), disaster model repository (as many as possible mathematical representations of different types disasters), output interface.  Decision-Making Support Moduledatabase with fragmented SOPs and defined triggers for disaster alerts and response. To each elementary action of the SOPs, will be added metadata containing: relevance to event, priority and sequence, dependences, etc.  Filtering and Distribution Modulewill filter the relevant elementary response actions and will dynamically generate proposal for Response Plan or Prevention and Preparedness Measures proposal.

Conclusions

The development of M&S architecture specific for the needs of the CMDR Training and Climate Change preparedness would provide NATO with a unique comprehensive training and analytical capability for non-military type of operations. This M&S architecture would be able to support large scale CDM distributed exercises and analysis with specific crisis management and disaster response tools and simulations. Experienced and highly trained personnel will operate this newly established technical environment. This new crisis management and disaster response environment will be supported by operationally experienced simulation subject matter experts to ensure successful operations, exercises and support activities from the beginning of the operations.

The close cooperation in the crisis management and disaster response domain requires the involvement of the appropriate military and civilian capabilities. These capabilities will include information and intelligence sharing, developing and operating early warning systems (in support of building common situational awareness), as well as conducting crisis and disaster planning and response, and preparedness for Climate Changes.

The establishment of a CMDR M&S Platform should have its initial operational capability established and operational in time to support the planned NATO Crisis Management Exercises, as well as any regional Network projects or exercises and trainings.

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. Number of weather related disasters

Fig. 2 .

 2 Fig. 2. Number of people affected by disasters

  combination of Live, Virtual and Constructive simulation is expected to form the Integrated CDMP &CCI Simulation Platform. In the context of an architecture for a CMDR Simulation & Training Environment we can identify the main "modules" of such a Platform as:  Management Frameworkthe Management Framework includes the Integrated Management Cycle. Considering the specific training features and the best practices, the framework has been developed on the conceptual basis of the project management.  Simulation Frameworkapplication of a federated approach based on High Level Architecture (HLA), but could also include Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) and Test and Training Enabling Architecture (TENA);  Modeling and Simulation Tools -tools including modeling and simulation of CBRN, flooding and earthquake effects during crises, crowd movement models and modeling of civil emergency services, etc.;  Environment Representation -including terrain, weather conditions and infrastructure;  Training Audience with their C4I real tools including decision and situational assessment tools, also visualization, simulation control and analysis tools;  ICT Infrastructureincluding hardware, basic software and connectivity for supporting the functioning of the Training Environment. These six main "modules" of the CDMP &CCI Simulation Platform will enable a powerful Integrated (Distributed) Training Environment for CMDR. Adapted to NATO's Concept Development and Experimentation Policy and processes for capability development the Integrated Environment for CMDR Training could be schematically presented as three main functional labs (see the figure bellow):  Concept Development Labprovides a framework for identifying existing ideas and solutions or developing new ones to overcome capability shortfalls and gaps in CDMP &CCI;  Experimentation Labits role is to determine, with the means and tools of experimentation, whether a concept under development will achieve its main aim;  Training Laba place for exercising the approved concepts, tested and validated with experiments.

Fig. 4 .

 4 Fig. 4. CDMP &CCI Simulation Platform

Fig. 5 .

 5 Fig. 5. Technical Architecture for CDMP &CCI

  2015 Gap Analysis Report serves as the foundation for the development of the 2015 Action Plan (AP) on M&S in support of military training. The Science, Technology, Modeling & Simulation Branch NATO HQ SACT and the Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence (CMDR COE) staff realized that there is a gap in NATO computer supported capabilities dealing with large scale events with negative impact on human society such as crisis and disasters, as well as in the evaluation of Climate Change. CMDR COE's staff has started a project for developing a technical platform using M&S for conducting experiments, tests, CAXs and training in the CMDR and Climate Change domain. The project was endorsed by the NATO Science and Technologies Board and started in February 2016 with an end date February 2019 under MSG-147 with lead nation Bulgaria and participation from Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Sweden, USA, M&S CoE, CMDR CoE, JFTC, and companies as IBM, MASA Group, C4IS. The project is open to Industry and NATO Partnering Nations.The aim of the project is to develop a reference architecture and demonstrate a technical platform that enables prompt, reasonable and effective verification and validation of Crisis/Disaster and Climate Change Implication (CCI) Response plans.

	The development includes scientific researches, concept development and experi-
	mentation, standardization and interoperability improvements.
	The expected Deliverables from the projects:
	 Investigate, categorize and catalogue data sources available for Disaster Response.
	 Analyze existing standards in common vocabulary and adapt existing ones for
	NATO purposes.
	 Categorize existing M&S solutions for CMDR&CCI and develop missing ones.
	 Computer formalization of Command and Control logic for Crisis/Disaster Re-
	sponse (DR).
	 Reference architecture/platform for proof of concept.
	 Demonstration (contribution to multinational exercises) as a test bed for Analysis
	and Trainings in order to support Crisis/Disaster Management and Climate Change
	Implications.
	 Synergies and Complementarities

  one is the analysis of the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) processes, preceding the development of the Operations Plan: o Fast and accurate Disaster Risk Analysis; o Comprehensive approach and correlation assessment among hazardous events; o Prevention and Preparedness Measures proposals.  Second one is the assessment of the Disaster Response, during NATO operation: o Fast and accurate Disaster Assessment (DA); o Dynamically generated proposal for Response Plan. o Lessons Learned process  Third one is the development of module for a realistic modeling and representation of different types of disasters for the purpose of education and training, experimentations, verification and validations.


Mikael Snaprud
email: mikael.snaprud@uia.no

Jaziar Radianti
email: jaziar.radianti@uia.no

Dag Svindseth

Better Access to Terminology for Crisis Communications

Keywords: Terminology, ICT -Supported Crisis Communication, Crisis Glossary

Crisis management depends on efficient communications with professional staff and with people who are affected by the crisis. The correct interpretation of general language and technical terms is crucial to take good actions and to save valuable time. To reduce the risk of misunderstandings we need a wellestablished crisis management terminology. Several collections of terms have been prepared for hazard areas such as pollution, radiation, fire safety, and dangerous goods. Today such terminologies can be provided on different websites, depending on how the national crisis management is organised. This distribution and a variation of different formats and user interfaces can make them hard to use. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to enable the term definition retrieval from a selection of terminologies directly from the text where the term is used. Initial experiments show that this approach can save time both for the retrieval and for the maintenance of terminologies. People involved in training and planning can benefit from access to definitions directly from the text of online documents. Terminology maintainers can benefit from the automated generation of internal links in the terminology so that the terms used in the definition of the other terms are automatically linked.

Introduction

Most literature in crisis management as well as in practice among crisis management practitioners, underline the importance of crisis communications to respond to small or large-scale incidents [START_REF] Iluzia Iacob | Strategy Map for the Crisis Communication[END_REF][START_REF] Coombs | The value of communication during a crisis: Insights from strategic communication research[END_REF][START_REF] Drake | Communicating Climate-Change and Natural Hazard Risk and Cultivating Resilience[END_REF][START_REF] Edworthy | Passing crisis and emergency risk communications: The effects of communication channel, information type, and repetition[END_REF][START_REF] Hagelsteen | A Great Babylonian Confusion: Terminological Ambiguity in Capacity Development for Disaster Risk Reduction in the International Community[END_REF][START_REF] Johansen | Entering new territory: A study of internal crisis management and crisis communication in organisations[END_REF][START_REF] Ki | Situational crisis communication and interactivity: Usage and effectiveness of Facebook for crisis management by Fortune 500 companies[END_REF][START_REF] Liu | Beyond image repair: Suggestions for crisis communication theory development[END_REF]. Therefore, the specific terms used in crisis communication must be precise, to be understood in the same way both by professionals responsible for handling a crisis and by the general citizens who need to stay in-formed about the crisis development. Precise terminology for crisis communication will reduce the risk of misunderstandings [START_REF] Thywissen | Components of risk: a comparative glossary[END_REF] among those who are responsible for responding the crisis.

Communications to general citizens may also rely on their understanding of terms to ensure that they take appropriate actions in emergency situations. Unfortunately, even though crisis terminologies often are provided freely online, the existence of such resources remains unknown to the people in general and limitedly used among professionals for preparations or in operations. On the other hand, the use of Information Communication Technology (ICT) for preparedness, during the crisis or in the recovery period is greatly adopted, especially in developed countries. The ICTs have been the main reason for recent shifting of the nature of crisis communication [START_REF] Tapia | Beyond the trustworthy tweet: A deeper understanding of microblogged data use by disaster response and humanitarian relief organisaions[END_REF] from a centralized command structure to multidirectional communication between a range of actors from various sectors and background (language, culture, knowledge). In such urgent and complex interaction with multiple stakeholders, the risk of communication misunderstanding may increase, and the actual (meaning) of the message may not be properly conveyed. A shared conceptual meaning and understanding are as crucial as the crisis communication model or technologies to enhance the common understanding and improve the effectiveness of disaster response.

The navigation in the jungle of terms to assure correct understanding is a pressing challenge. Taking Norway as an example, this is prevalent for most of the crucial crisis management services including police, fire service, medical service and for the media. Misunderstandings caused by misinterpreted terms are often only clarified in the evaluation phase, after the crisis response is carried out. Given the organisation of crisis management agencies into different services, the solution may not be one singular set of terms with an ambition to cover all aspects and services. However, as a preferred minimum solution the different actors should have thorough knowledge about internal terms and how others use them. For the wider audience, the media has a special responsibility to use specific terms to describe crisis events. The media al-ready has style guides and tools in place for how to spell foreign names or for words to use or avoid. But they do cannot cover crisis management in a consistent way without sources of reference. This situation underlines the need to raise the crisis management terminologies in the research agenda.

This paper argues that in current ICT-based crisis communication practices there is little attention to how crisis terminology can be maintained and used efficiently for training and operations as a part of preparedness and response in the crisis management cycle. To support the earlier claim, the authors conduct a literature survey and several documentations on practices for communicating crisis response, to explore how crisis terminologies are used and maintained. In this paper, we also provide examples and sources for crisis terminology in different fields and countries and examine the current use of these technical terms. To this end, we propose a concept and a novel solution to harmonize and to integrate crisis-related terminologies. We also outline how the approach can support a robust, accessible, and more human-centric ICT-based crisis communication. The suggested approach is based on an online service demonstrated on the website for the Norwegian Association for firefighters' terminology (http://www.kbt.no).

Previous Studies and Paper Scope

As indicated by Mayner and Arbon [START_REF] Mayner | Defining disaster: The need for harmonisation of terminology[END_REF], the need for harmonisation of the definition of disaster terms is evident as a solid basis for building more unitary research, policy, and practice. They provide an example of analysis of the term "disaster" in a source with 110 glossaries containing disaster terminology, but only 52 contained the definition of the disaster. They point out that, even for one word, "disaster" there is very little consensus, what the disaster actually means. Mayner and Arbon [START_REF] Mayner | Defining disaster: The need for harmonisation of terminology[END_REF] found at least 128 different disaster definitions. Likewise, Hagelsteen and Becker [START_REF] Hagelsteen | A Great Babylonian Confusion: Terminological Ambiguity in Capacity Development for Disaster Risk Reduction in the International Community[END_REF] raise the concern regarding the potential discrepancies in how individuals or organisations perceive the key disaster concepts. They use the essential concepts related to the "disaster risk reduction (DRR)" and "capacity development" as a test case using groups of international experts as respondents and examining documents from nine capacity development projects for DRR. Their research finds significant differences concerning how the respondents define DRR concepts. This finding strengthens the earlier study conducted by Lipson and Warren [START_REF] Lipson | Taking Stock'-A Snapshot of INGO Engagement in Civil Society Capacity Building[END_REF] that common definition of "capacity building" is not homogeneous among their respondents that covered NGOs from 18 countries. Hagelsteen and Becker [START_REF] Hagelsteen | A Great Babylonian Confusion: Terminological Ambiguity in Capacity Development for Disaster Risk Reduction in the International Community[END_REF] point out the tendencies of people's attitude to underestimate the importance of using terminology correctly and assume that two different parties have the same understanding as a reason for this inconsistencies. In addition, Thywissen [START_REF] Thywissen | Components of risk: a comparative glossary[END_REF] argues that the definitions of the same terms were developed simultaneously and homogeneously in multiple disciplines and results in variation of definitions for the same term, causing the so-called "Babylonian Confusion." Thywissen [START_REF] Thywissen | Components of risk: a comparative glossary[END_REF] further suggests a common vocabulary of unique, well-formulated definitions and concepts, to avoid misunderstandings in the communication between different ac-tors.

Some efforts have been initiated to harmonise the crisis management terms using various approaches such as by using taxonomies [START_REF] Barthe | Towards a taxonomy of crisis management simulation tools[END_REF][START_REF] Pottebaum | Taxonomy of IT support for training emergency response & management[END_REF][START_REF] Addams-Moring | A simple taxonomy for mobile emergency announcement systems[END_REF][START_REF] Grant | A Taxonomy of Market Mechanisms for Information Sharing in Crisis Response Coalitions[END_REF][START_REF] Shamoug | Addressing Interoperability through the Semantic of Information Highway in Managing Responses in Humanitarian Crises[END_REF], terminologies-vocabularies [START_REF] Reuter | Dealing with terminologies in collaborative systems for crisis management[END_REF][START_REF] Temnikova | EMTerms 1. 0: a terminological resource for crisis tweets[END_REF], domain ontology [START_REF] Malizia | Emergency Alerts for all: an ontology based approach to improve accessibility in emergency alerting systems[END_REF][START_REF] Galton | An ontology of information for emergency management[END_REF][START_REF] Liu | Ontologies for crisis management: a review of state of the art in ontology design and usability[END_REF][START_REF] Javed | Ontology-Based Inference to Enhance Team Situation Awareness in Emergency Management[END_REF], semantic integration [START_REF] Barros | Edxl-rescuer ontology: Conceptual model for semantic integration[END_REF] or developing interoperability framework [START_REF] Gatial | Data Interoperability Approach during Major Accidents[END_REF][START_REF] Park | Enabling cross-organisation interoperability through dynamic directory integration[END_REF][START_REF] Buscher | A New Manhattan Project?: Interoperability and Ethics in Emergency Response Systems of Systems[END_REF]. Despite the recognizing of some limitations in the use of crisis terminology issues, how to increase the adoption of such resources in an easy way and make them accessible, is not so much studied as the existence of such resources and how to use them in day-to-day practices are still two separate issues. Reuter et. al [START_REF] Reuter | Dealing with terminologies in collaborative systems for crisis management[END_REF], for example, address the same concern as our research, i.e. how to deal with terminology ambiguities in collaborative systems. This study, however, is exploratory in essence, while the technical approach discussed in this work is more about the conceptual and requirement level than suggesting concrete ICT solution.

Crisis glossaries are an agreed set of terminologies formally issued by the government, public agencies or associations covering different countries, intended to use for harmonising and enhancing crisis management terms. Traditionally, the use of these terms is more scholarly-education oriented, and ensuring that professionals can find and access different disaster-related glossaries uniformly, and never fully used for the more practical-oriented purpose. As a result, this domain is often overlooked, especially, how enable people to quickly find and use them whether they are needed for training, crisis communication or in crisis management operations.

For the sake of clarity, we outline several boundaries that define the scope of this paper, i.e. which ones are not part of this paper's goals, and what is the actual contribution of this paper.

Firstly, the notion of establishing the better human-centric approach and integrated crisis glossary is to be applied in the local, general crisis management practices. The idea is neither for solving multilinguistic issues nor for proposing a method for achieving agreed terms in the context of international humanitarian missions where multiactor, multi-national responders may be involved in the affected area within a single country. However, our proposed approach can potentially be expanded into this type of international, multi-actor humanitarian mission, if relevant glossaries exist for serving humanitarian actions.

Secondly, this paper is neither intended to make new crisis glossaries which should consider non-homogeneous vocabularies, standardisation such as NIEM (www.niem.gov), conversion or translation to semantic mapping nor to analyse different understandings that may occur between organisations.

Thirdly, this paper is neither about proposing terminologies, taxonomies, vocabularies or domain ontology, nor solving technical interoperability issues. These fields have been thoroughly scrutinized through massive efforts e.g. in European projects such as DISASTER (disaster-fp7.eu), SecInCoRe (www.secincore.eu), EPISECC (www.episecc.eu), or CRISP (www.crispproject.eu), in addition to some papers cited earlier.

This paper is about the current issues hindering efficient access to terminologies for crisis communications, and a proposed approach to resolve them.

Methodology and Examples of Terminologies

In this article, a qualitative method is applied, especially document collection and literature review, and a simple technical implementation of integrated glossary service as a proof of concept for our suggested solution. The verification from a practitioner adds the confidence towards the need on the proposed notion. We surveyed documents containing to obtain a sample of official information on glossaries used for crisis management worldwide. The goal is to provide a concrete illustration on the domain discussed in this paper. The glossary document examination is not intended for an exhaustive search, but instead to point out exemplary cases of the weaknesses of current presentation of emergency management glossaries, making it hard for users to find them, as explained in Section 4.

While ICT-based support or websites inform public the best practices intended for all in responding to hazard, they rarely include the terminology. The table 1 below is to show some examples.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to support disaster communication through an innovative glossary service, integrated into the ICT-based solution, which is more human-centric oriented and accessible. This approach could be used to provide access to relevant terminologies from the resources in Table 1. The weaknesses of the current search method of these crisis terminologies and proposed and implemented technology to support more human-centric crisis glossary services are illustrated further in Section 4 and 5 respectively. There are several initiatives across government to collect terms related to their sector of responsibility related to crisis management. The following sections present a selection of them from Norway, Indonesia and international ones from Europe. Most of them are presented in different record formats. The modes for access also vary widely from PDF documents to access via application programming interface.

In Norway, we have located three groups of sources featuring government agencies like:

1. The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) or Miljøkommune (www.miljokommune.no = environment municipality). 2. Environment Agency and clusters of organisations like the KBT (a cluster for fire safety) or AFTERM (a cluster for coastal hazard terms). 3. The law, regulations and guidance notes to the law, and standards.

All of these agencies manage their own set of terms. Some of them have an international collaboration to manage translations. The KBT has a collaboration with the Federation of the European Union Fire Officer Associations with 25 languages (FEU, see Table 2). The European Environment Agency is another relevant European source covering more than 30 languages. The coverage of terms in different languages seems to vary. Globally, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has only one glossary with five terms related to Pauses During Conflict. Most of the disaster-related terms in UN agency are maintained in UNISDR (The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction), and available in all official United Nations languages (https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/7817).

We also examine Indonesia, one of the countries that is considered by UNISDR to be among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Indonesia faces multiple hazards such as earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, flood, landslide, drought, and forest fires, and terrorism [START_REF]AIPA: Indonesia's Country Report on Disaster Response Management in AIPA Caucus Report. ASEAN Inter-Parlementary Assembly-AIPA[END_REF]. The National Disaster Management Authority of Indonesia provides a limited collection of technical terms derived from the Act Number 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Apparently, the terms are limited compared to the disaster risks faced by this country in different likely disaster scenarios.

In Australia, Emergency Management Australia publishes the glossary as a pdf form, as a part of Australian Emergency Manual series. The glossary is intended for different organisations: public, private and community organisations. This is an example of a glossary document that has clear intended users.

The most comprehensive collection of glossaries is gathered by the US Department of Health and Human Services. It covers a wide range of disasters, emergency managements and humanitarian relief glossaries across agencies in the US and worldwide. The summary and links to the sources can be seen in Table 2.

Current Use of Collections of Terms

The ways to retrieve the definitions are very varied, but all of them will require the user to carry out some navigation to locate the relevant definition. We are aware of five online approaches available for users:

1. General search engine (possibly use the "define:" option); 2. Search for term in general dictionary (requires user to find e.g. dictionary.com.); 3. Search for term in a relevant term source (requires user to find e.g. KBT.no);

4. Search for term in the law/regulation (requires user to find and browse lovdata.no [access to a collection of online legal resources] in Norway e.g.). 5. The user uses a built-in functionality like "Define" on an iPad or Kindle device, or a browser extension to retrieve Wikipedia definitions.

The approaches 1 and 2 will require the user to switch context from the text where the term appeared and often return many irrelevant hits. Approaches 3 and 4 require that the user is aware of the specific sources. Approaches 1-4 all have in common that the user must change context and carry out a search on some other webpage. In some cases, user typos will be caught and corrected, and some services simply do not return any hits for mistyped terms. The 5th approach can keep the user in the context but will not give access to the specific crisis terminologies.

Current Representations of Collections of Terms

We note two challenges with the current practice, namely that the definitions of terms can be scattered across many sources, and that they are only available in for-mats that do not well support re-use in terms of machine-readability, such as tables on webpages or PDF documents. Tim Berners Lee proposed a Five-star deployment scheme for open data, to indicate the level of applicability for further use of the data (http://5stardata.info/en/).

As an example, we can look at the two Norwegian data sources KBT and AFTERM dealing with fire hazards and coastal area pollution hazards respectively. The data in both sources are stored in a database and published on HTML pages. So, the format is open and non-proprietary, URIs can be used to point to specific definitions of terms in the KBT source, and some of the external sources are provided as hyperlinks. This would award 5 out of 5 stars for the KBT representation. This will allow for efficient re-use and projection of these resources on other texts as indicated in the following section.

6

A Novel Approach to Access Term Definitions

The novel approach will allow the user to stay in the context where the term occurs and retrieve term definitions in a pop-up. Figure 1 shows an example from reading a Norwegian text about fire safety in buildings. The example shows the definition of the Norwegian term antennelse (set fire to/ignition).

There are some services provided on the iPhone and Kindle that can deliver a similar output. However, these are limited to their hardware platforms and do not support users with other platforms.

Important difference compared to such solutions is the crucial narrowing of scope. The selection of terms will be limited to the disaster management area to allow the user to focus on the communication and not have to wade in long lists of irrelevant search hits. Images or video clips added to the term definitions can also help to con-vey the meaning more efficiently and overcome language barriers.

The approach can also support multiple terminologies. In this way, one click can replace the time consuming exercise to send the user off to multiple websites and to locate and query the individual terminologies for the requested definition. The proposed solution can also provide a ranking among multiple terminology sources if needed.

A similar approach can be used to support translations of a selection of relevant terms into additional languages. Please not that this will not replace a complete translation but can yet help non-native speakers to grasp the message.

The solution is designed in such a way that it is accessible for all regardless of disabilities, conforming to the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.0). This means that people using a mouse and a web browser like Firefox, Chrome or Internet Explorer, will get a similar user experience like those using a screen reader like Jaws or NVDA using the keyboard to navigate among definitions of terms. The approach is also designed to work across all common web browsers and platforms including mobile devices and tablets. These capabilities taken together forms the basis of a tool to support learning [START_REF] Snaprud | A Socratic E-Learning Approach[END_REF], for disaster preparedness. We also expect that the simplified retrieval of definitions can support the terminology maintainers in their work, e.g. to harmonize the content among the different terminologies. A time-consuming part of the maintenance of terminologies is also the bookkeeping of internal links where one term that is defined is used in the definition of another term. Changes in the glossary can have far-reaching cascading effects that are currently manually maintained. Our approach will support the automated generation of internal links as shown in figure 2.

The definitions can be shaped with simple formatting like bullets or emphasized text and can contain images. Figure 3 shows an image to illustrate the definition of the term "oljeforurensning" (oil pollution). To support the training for oral communications, the definitions can also be read aloud with an integrated text to speech solution. The definitions can link in external references with additional information. This way the definition can link supporting materials or further illustrations e.g. in the form of content from Wikipedia, sound files for correct pronunciation, or video clips.

Conclusions and Future Works

In this paper, we have argued that in the current improvement of crisis communication technologies, the importance of shared understanding regarding the main concepts in the messages being exchanged is often overlooked. Even though terminologies are available and well-made, they are not necessarily well integrated into the communication resources or easy to use. A novel approach to unify the access to multiple terminologies and to improve the retrieval functionality has been introduced. The approach has been implemented for the terminology maintained by the Norwegian Firefighters Association (KBT) and has already demonstrated contributions to improved usability both for the terminology users and for the maintainers. Future steps will include to enhance the capabilities of the approach to make it more robust and to seek collaboration with forward-looking crisis response organisations to carry out further experiments both for terminology maintenance and for crisis training initiatives.

Fig. 1 .

 1 Fig. 1. Example retrieval of the Norwegian term "antennelse" [ignition]. The text is part of a legal regulation about fire safety in buildings, and the definition is retrieved from KBT.

Fig. 2 .

 2 Fig. 2. Example retrieval of term definition from KBT backdraft. The definition of "forbrenning" (combustion) refer to the definition of "gløding" (glowing).

Fig. 3 .

 3 Fig. 3. Example to show definition of the term "oljeforurensing" (Oil pollution) illustrated with an image

Table 1 .

 1 Examples of practices for responding/alerting disasters in different countries

	Country	Practice	Glossary on site Languages covered
	Japan	Emergency Warning System	Not found	English, Japanese
	Queensland Australia	Standard Emergency Warning Signal (SEWS)	Not found	20 language translation service via phone call
	The Netherlands	NL-Alert	Not found	Dutch only
				Norwegian and English
	Norway	Kriseinfo	Not found	but only Norwegian up
				to date.
	US	Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS)	Not found	17 languages on the site

Table 2 .

 2 Examples of technical term collections from different countries

	Country	Example	Remark/name
	Norway	DSB	Norwegian Directorate for Civil
			Protection (DSB)
		Miljøkommune	A website with resources for
			municipalities
		Environment Agency	National environment directorate
		Law and regulations	Norwegian legal documents
		Standards	Standards Norway, responsible for na-
			tional standards
		KBT	Federation of national agencies related
			to fire safety
	European/	FEU	The Federation of the European Union
	International		Fire Officer Associations
		Prevention web	UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
			(UNISDR)
		EIONET	European Environment Information and
			Observation Network
	Indonesia	National Disaster Man-
		agement Authority
	Australia	Emergency Manage-
		ment Australia
	US	US Department of
		Health and Service