M K Hamza

J-M Bluet

K Masenelli-Varlot

B Canut

O Boisron

P Melinon

B Masenelli
email: bruno.masenelli@insa-lyon.fr

Tunable mid IR plasmon in Gallium doped ZnO nanocrystals

Degenerate metal oxide nanoparticles are promising systems to expand the significant achievements of plasmonics into the infrared (IR) range. Among the possible candidates, Ga-doped ZnO nanocrystals are particularly suited for mid IR, considering their wide range of possible doping level and thus of plasmon tuning. In the present work, we report on the tunable mid IR plasmon induced in degenerate Ga-doped ZnO nanocrystals. The nanocrystals are produced by a plasma expansion and exhibit unprotected surfaces. Tuning the Ga concentration allows tuning the localized surface plasmon resonance. Moreover, the plasmon resonance is characterized by a large damping. By comparing the plasmon of nanocrystals assemblies to that of nanoparticles dispersed in an alumina matrix, we investigate the possible origins of such damping. We demonstrate that it partially results from the self-organization of the naked particles but also from intrinsic inhomogeneity of dopants.

Introduction

After having been extensively studied as TCO (transparent conductive oxide), highly doped (degenerate) metal oxide semiconductors are now being considered as a promising platform for the expansion of plasmonics in the IR [1,2]. The possibility to achieve plasmons in the near IR (NIR) in Al or Ga doped ZnO thin films, as well as in ITO (indium tin oxide) ones has been demonstrated [3,4,5] and even harvested to build metamaterials [6]. [7]. Whilst plasmonic materials in the NIR ranges have remarkably advanced, the exploitation of low-cost and reliable MIR materials remains yet a challenge. The pursuance of MIR plasmonics would add a substantial value to technological applications such as chemical sensing, bio-diagnostics, thermography, emitters, and near-field imaging. In particular, the mid IR (MIR) range is the domain where many molecules or chemical species exhibit strong optical resonances due to vibrational modes. This feature is the motivation of FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed) spectroscopy. In order to improve chemical sensing through IR spectroscopy, it is highly desirable to reproduce in the IR range the improvements of chemical sensing achieved in the visible range thanks to the use of plasmons in noble metal particles. For this purpose, designing nanoparticles that can sustain a MIR plasmon is of prime importance. This can be done either dynamically by inducing an electron gas in the conduction band of the particles using a pulsed high power laser [8,9,10] or by chemically doping the particles. The former strategy is interesting for high speed switches while the latter is better-suited to steady-state chemical sensing.

Several recent studies have demonstrated that the chemical doping is possible in oxide nanoparticles made of ITO, Al-doped ZnO (AZO), Ga-doped ZnO (GZO), or Sn-doped ZnO, ICO (indium doped Cadmium Oxide) and even WO3 [11,12,13,14,15] as well as in chalcogenide nanocrystals [16,[START_REF] Kriegel | Symposium on Ultrafast Dynamics of the 7th International Series in Optics and Photonics[END_REF][START_REF] Jain | [END_REF]. The major interest with degenerate semiconductors is the ability to tune the plasmon resonance through the control of the density of free charge carriers. Contrary to noble metals, it is possible to tune the plasmon resonance wavelength from about 1 µm to 5 µm [12] by controlling the carrier density over one order of magnitude (from a few 10 19 cm -3 to more than 10 21 cm -3 ). Expanding this range towards higher concentrations is a real challenge. Specifically, whatever the material, when increasing the carrier concentration and thus the doping fraction, one will face the solubility limit issue. Besides, while IR plasmons have shown to exhibit fewer losses than their noble metal counterparts in thin films [START_REF] Kalusniak | Proc. SPIE[END_REF][START_REF] Naik | [END_REF]21], it is not true in nanocrystals. It seems a common feature for assemblies of degenerate metal oxide nanoparticles to exhibit large damping [22]. However this feature is not commented upon and only recently have Milliron and co-workers addressed the issue [23], proposing that the damping is related to the incomplete activation of the doping impurities [24].

In the present work, we report on the physical synthesis of uncapped GZO nanoparticles by a plasma expansion in high vacuum. GZO is an interesting material because of its expected wide range of plasmon tuning (from near IR to mid IR) due to a large doping range. Furthermore, it is based on abundant and thus cheap elements. With free surfaces, the nanoparticles can self-organize. By varying the Ga content within the particles we are able to tune the plasmon wavelength from 3 to 4 µm. We establish that the maximum value of Ga homogeneously incorporated in ZnO nanoparticles resulting from the adiabatic expansion of a plasma lies between 6% and 9%. As expected the plasmon resonance is characterized by a large damping which is correlated to the partial activation of Ga dopants. By dispersing the nanocrystals in an alumina matrix, we synthesize a MIR plasmonic nanocomposite with reduced damping. This demonstrates that beside the heterogeneous distribution of Ga, the self-organization and the related interfaces also control the damping in the assembly.

Methods

Synthesis method

The nanoparticles have been synthesized by the LECBD (low energy cluster beam deposition) technique described in [25]. A plasma is first generated by ablating a target with a high power pulsed (10 Hz repetition rate) doubled (532 nm) YAG: Nd laser. The target is a pellet made of a mixture of ZnO and Ga2O3 (99.999% pure each) microscopic powders sintered and annealed at 800°C for 10h.

The plasma is first quenched by a constant flux of gas consisting of 75% He and 25% O2. The O2 amount has been chosen to preserve the stoichiometry of the resulting nanocrystals (cf. [25]). The buffer gas induces the stabilization of nucleation embryos (dimers and trimers). On these embryos, atoms from the plasma aggregate according to an accretion process when the plasma expands through a micrometer nozzle while leaving the nucleation chamber at some 20 mbar and reaching the deposition chamber at a few 10 -7 mbar. This important pressure variation (eight orders of magnitude) located over a very small distance (a few microns from the nozzle) leads to an adiabatic expansion of the plasma leading to the hyperquenching of the nanoparticles produced by accretion.

The resulting particles form a supersonic jet which is deposited on silicon substrates (see supporting information). Despite their high velocity, the kinetic energy per atom among the particles is lower than the binding energy per atom; this ensures that the particles do not break during deposition. The deposition rate amounts typically to 1 nm/min. This rate can be tuned directly by changing the laser power or its repetition rate. The films resulting from the deposition of the nanoparticles are several hundred of nm thick and look like foam, with a high porosity, estimated to be about 70% from the 3D percolation theory. This is illustrated in scanning electron microscope (SEM) images of the films shown in the supporting information.

Characterization techniques

The structure of the deposited particles has been investigated on the one hand by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and on the other hand by X-Ray diffraction (XRD). TEM high resolution images were acquired on a JEOL 2010F operating at 200 kV, equipped with a Gatan Orius 100 CCD camera. For the determination of the size distribution of the nanoparticles, isolated nanoparticles were deposited on carbon coated Cu grids (from Ted Pella Inc.). The grids were placed directly in the particle beam for a few seconds to ensure the deposition of isolated particles (the corresponding equivalent deposited thickness is about 5Å). The contrast due the particle being not so high, the size distribution has been obtained from high resolution TEM images. XRD diffractograms were obtained on a Rigaku Smartlab diffractometer using the Cu K1 radiation ( = 1.54 Å). The elemental composition of the particles has been measured at the nanoparticle scale by Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) during the TEM analyses (80 mm 2 SSD detector from Oxford Instrument), at the surface of the nanoparticle assembly by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) using the Al K line at 1486.6 eV and at the scale of the whole nanoparticle films by Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry (RBS) using a 4 He + ion beam accelerated at 3 MeV delivered by the 4 MV Van de Graaff accelerator of the Nuclear Physics Institute of Lyon (IPNL). The backscattered particles were detected with a 13 keV resolution implanted junction set at an angle of 160° with respect to the beam axis.

Furthermore, the presence of plasmon resonance has been probed by FTIR in the reflection mode.

Results

Nanoparticle assembled films

The LECBD technique has already been used to synthesize ZnO nanocrystals [25,26]. The resulting particles are crystallized in the wurtzite structure. In the case of Ga doping at 3%, 6% and 9%, the TEM analysis in the high resolution mode confirms that it is still the case, as illustrated in fig. 1 and in the supporting information. The size distribution of the as-synthesized nanocrystals, measured on a collection of 78, 53 or 48 isolated particles for the 3%, 6% and 9% doped samples, respectively, is visible in Fig. 1b). With a level of confidence of 95%, the mean size of particle distribution could be calculated as 5.6 ± 0.3 nm, 6.3 ± 1.2 and 6.7 ± 1.7 nm for the samples doped at 3%, 6% and 9% respectively. 3 % 6 % 9 %

The wurtzite structure is confirmed by XRD on the films resulting from the deposition of the nanocrystals (see fig. 2). No other phase, and in particular any phase related to pure Ga or Ga compound, is observed. However, the mean size of the crystalline domains as deduced by Scherrer's equation, assuming perfect crystals without defects, is 18.7 nm, 20.7 nm and 20.4 nm for the 3%, 6%

and 9% doped GZO samples respectively. This discrepancy has already been noticed for pure ZnO nanocrystals produced by the LECBD technique [26] as well as by other techniques (see [27] and references therein). It results from the oriented attachment (OA) of the initial uncapped nanocrystals which tend to reduce the energy of the free surface of their facets by epitaxial attachment. Indeed, when the nanoparticles reach the substrate, they conserve a certain kinetic energy. This kinetic energy allows them to rotate a little upon impact on the sample and present their facets to those of other already present nanoparticles. This leads to the sticking of neighboring nanoparticles. Because the facets are uncapped they can arrange so as to minimize the interface energy. This is done when epitaxy is achieved, giving rise to larger single crystal domains. Because the OA is a statistical process, the resulting domains are very likely to be non spherical. OA is a quite general process in systems using nanoparticles as primary building blocks (for a complete review, see [27]). An example of two nanocrystals attached according to this process is given in supplementary information. The result of the OA is thus larger crystalline domains which are not quasi-spherical anymore and with defects at the interfaces because of an imperfect epitaxy. To name a few, we can mention twin boundaries and dislocations. The XRD analysis also provides us with the mean reticular spacing. As expected, since gallium has an ionic radius of 0.62Å and covalent radius of 1.26Å, which are close to those of zinc (0.74 Å and 1.31 Å), the increase in the inter-reticular distance is very small (supplementary information): it increases almost linearly with the Ga fraction and reaches only 0.38% at 9% Ga .

Figure 2: diffractograms of GZO nanocrystal samples with 3%, 6% and 9% Ga content. techniques. The XPS analysis, which probes the same area but on a much smaller depth (of about 10 nm), is in fair accordance with the RBS results and the nominal values for the lowest doping levels but is drastically different for the larger doping level. Instead of the 9% doping expected, we only measure a Ga content of 5%. This suggests that for the highest doping level the Ga distribution is not homogeneous along the deposition direction. It is likely that as the ablation of the target occurs, the composition of plasma changes either because the target is not homogeneous in depth or because the ablation is a selective process for the highly doped target. When we probe the samples at the scale of individual particles by EDS, the composition is rather constant from particle to particle for the 3% and 6% doped GZO nanocrystals. A variation of ± 2% is found. However, for the 9% doped sample, strong variations of the Ga content are evidenced from particle to particle, some exhibiting 8% Ga content while others have 45% of Ga. In accordance with the XPS analysis, we can conclude that the incorporation of Ga is homogeneous for concentrations lower than 9%. This observation is interesting regarding the solubility limit issue. Several scenarios have been evoked regarding the incorporation of impurities in nano-objects [28]. On the one hand, if the synthesis is ruled by thermodynamics, the dopant solubility in nanoparticles should be lower than the bulk one (measured between 0.5% and 1.5% in bulk ZnO [29]), leading to self-purification and dopant segregation at the particle surface. On the other hand, if kinetics rules the synthesis, the solubility limit can be higher in nanoparticles than in the bulk and the location should be homogenous throughout the nanoparticle.

In our synthesis technique, the particle growth is obviously ruled by kinetics. However, the Ga content is inhomogeneous from particle to particle and, even if some particles can incorporate an amount of Ga impurities larger than the thermodynamic limit, it is not sure at all whether the Ga atoms are rejected at the surface or not, leading to a kind of self-purification mechanism. Further studies are necessary to investigate this point which is of prime importance to reach the maximum efficient incorporation amount of Ga in ZnO nanoparticles. The XPS analysis also provides hints on the local chemical environment of the species in the GZO nanocrystals. In particular, we are interested in the chemical state of Ga dopants. Figure 3 shows the Ga 2p3/2 peak for the three concentrations of Ga. Each peak can be decomposed into two contributions which are fitted by Gaussian functions. The prominent one, centered at 1118.9 ± 0.2 eV, is attributed to Ga 3+ ions bound to O [30,31,32]. These ions may be in substitution of Zn 2+ in the wurtzite ZnO structure. The second one, peaking at 1116.8 ± 0.2 eV, can originate from metallic Ga [31,33]. It is worth noticing that its intensity is about one tenth of the prominent contribution. A third minor contribution is observed only for the 3% doped GZO nanoparticles, peaking at 1121 ± 0.2 eV.

This contribution can hardly be assigned to Ga and no hypothesis is proposed yet. A complete detailed analysis of the XPS results is presented in the supplementary information.

The effect of Ga doping on the IR optical properties of the nanocrystal assembled films has been investigated by FTIR reflectance measurements. The results are shown in fig. 4. As compared to pure ZnO nanocrystals, we can observe a reduction of the reflectivity around 2500 cm -1 (4 µm) for all GZO samples. A broad band can be seen which shifts from 4 µm to 3 µm as the Ga content increases from 3% to 9%. This shift is in accordance with a plasmonic behavior. However, concomitantly to this shift, a decrease of the reflectivity amplitude is also expected as the electronic density, thus the Ga content, increases. This is not the case. Actually, for the 9% doped sample, the peak is rather small. This can be explained by the large chemical inhomogeneity of that sample reported previously.

Indeed, among the sample, few nanocrystals are actually doped at 9%. Some are less doped whereas others have exceeded the solubility limit. The latter do not contribute to the plasmon signal. Another hypothesis to explain our data could be intraband absorption. Since the nanocrystals have a significant free electron density, they can induce an intraband absorption in the conduction band.

Assuming that each Ga dopant contributes to the electronic density by one electron, the expected order of magnitude of the latter would be about a few 10 20 cm -3 (see table 1). For such a concentration, A. Germeau et al. [34] have shown that the intraband absorption is located at approximately 5 µm and is not so much dependent on the concentration of the electron gas. We thus safely believe that our observations are the signature of a localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) induced by the Ga incorporation, even though a minor contribution of intraband absorption cannot completely be excluded in the 5µm range. We subsequently deduce the electron density corresponding to the observed peaks. Using the simple Drude's model, the frequency of the bulk plasmon resonance p is related to the electron density n through:

𝜔 𝑝 = √ 𝑛𝑒 2 𝜀 0 𝜀 𝑟 𝑚 * (1)
Where e is the electron charge, m* the effective mass of free electrons in ZnO (assuming it is not significantly perturbed by the high electron density value), 0 the permittivity of free space and r the relative permittivity of ZnO. The surface plasmon induced in a collection of identical particles dispersed in a surrounding medium with a permittivity m is:

𝜔 𝑠𝑝 = √ 𝜔 𝑝 2 𝜀 ∞ +2𝜀 𝑚 (2)
Where e is the high frequency permittivity of GZO (we approximate it with the value of 3.7 reported for ZnO [35]).

The estimation of m is not straightforward. For particles diluted in a dielectric medium, the Maxwell-Garnett model is well adapted. However, this does not correspond to the case of our samples where nanoparticles are connected and touch each other forming a random network with 70% porosity (3D percolation limit). We have thus preferred the Bruggeman model to describe our samples. The medium surrounding a given nanocrystal is treated as a mixture of 30% GZO and 70% of air. Using this treatment, we extract the electron density values reported in table 1. The free carrier concentration varies from 1.8x10 20 cm -3 to 4.1x10 20 cm -3 which corresponds to 700 up to 1600 electrons per particle respectively. Mendelsberg et al. [23] have shown that equation 2 actually induces an inherent error in the determination of p from sp for degenerate semiconductor nanoparticles. Consequently, the values reported here must be considered as approximations (overestimations) of the real ones. Ga is a shallow donor when properly introduced in ZnO with an activation energy of about 16 meV, much lower than the thermal activation energy at room temperature. A striking fact is the difference between the Ga concentration and the actual free electron density. The two quantities differ by a factor of 2, meaning that at best (keeping in that the carrier concentration is overestimated), only 1/2 of the Ga atoms introduced effectively contribute to the free electron gas. The value seems low but it is in accordance with most of the reported values and in particular those for Al doped ZnO particles or ITO particles [22,24]. Moreover, our spectra present an asymmetrical line shape as reported by Milliron et al. [24]. Following the results from Milliron and co-workers, the last two observations can be consistently explained by the random distribution of the dopants among the nanocrystals.

We can further propose that a large fraction of the electrons provided by the Ga atoms are trapped at the numerous defects, such as twin boundaries, dislocations and dangling bonds possibly located at the interfaces of the nanocrystals. Recalling that unprotected surfaces of ZnO are highly sensitive to air moisture and contamination and that this sensitivity leads to the presence of a depletion region underneath the surface, we can understand why so many electrons are lost for the LSPR. To sum it up, there may be two causes for the low activation of dopants: the first one is the incorporation of Ga atoms in inefficient sites, the second one is the trapping of free electrons at defects at the surface or interfaces. These two causes are not independent since inefficient sites for Ga atoms can be defects at the surface of the nanocrystals. If we stick to the simple model of the surface depletion region commonly evoked for ZnO nanoparticles, considering an activation of 1/2 of the Ga dopants and assuming the dopants are homogeneously distributed within each particle (as explained above) this leads to define a 2 nm "dead layer" below the surface of our 20 nm nanocrystals where the dopants are not activated.

Nanoparticles embedded in matrix

In order to investigate the parameters ruling the LSPR and its damping, related to the full-width-athalf-maximum (FWHM), we have embedded the 3% GZO nanocrystals in an Al2O3 matrix. The alumina matrix has been deposited using an electron gun for sublimation concomitantly to the nanocrystal deposition at much higher rate to ensure the nanocrystals are isolated. Hence they do not undergo OA. Contrary to the case of a nanoparticle assembled film, their size dispersion is known and is identical to the one of the isolated particles of fig. 1b, i.e. 5.6 ± 0.3 nm. The corresponding reflectance spectrum is presented on fig. 5 along with that of the same nanocrystals not embedded in the matrix. We first observe that the LSPR is red-shifted to 2100 cm -1 (4.7 µm) when the nanocrystals are embedded in the alumina matrix. This is in agreement with equation (2) where m is now the permittivity of the effective medium consisting of the alumina matrix and the GZO the particles. In this case, the Maxwell-Garnett model is adapted and m is 2.5, thus larger than that deduced in the case of a porous GZO nanoparticle film. This further goes to show that we are dealing with LSPR. However, the red-shift might also result from a decrease of the free electron density (see eq. 1). This hypothesis is not likely since in this case the GZO nanocrystals are isolated and fully passivated by the surrounding alumina matrix. We can thus expect the number of surface traps and interface defects to be reduced. This is confirmed by applying Drude's model to the GZO nanoparticles embedded in the alumina matrix. We get an estimated free electron density of 1.14x10 20 cm -3 , slightly larger than in the case of the particle assembled film. The fraction of activated Ga atoms is here 0.34, instead of 0.3. The crystalline disorder is reduced whereas the chemical disorder (inhomogeneity of the Ga atoms), which is mainly controlled by the synthesis conditions, is not affected.

The last observation that can be made concerns the FWHM, thus the LSPR damping. When the nanocrystals do not interact through OA and are isolated, the FWHM is reduced from 2331 cm -1 to 1140 cm -1 . Complementarily to the results of Milliron et al. [24] stating the FWHM is ruled by the dopant segregation among the particles, our results show that the LSPR damping is also influenced by the organization of the nanocrystals. When the particles are connected via OA, with twin boundaries, dislocations, possibly strain at the particle interfaces, the disorder is increased, the mean free path of the electrons is decreased and leads to an increased damping.

Besides, a recent work [36] on gold nanoparticles has shown that interactions between particles broaden the plasmon resonance. Either the capacitive coupling between LSPR of metal nanoparticles separated by a few nm or the delocalization of LSPR over fused metal nanoparticles lead to a spectral distribution of the LSPR. When a statistical variation of either the separating distance or of the number of fused metallic nanoparticles is present, the addition of the stochastically shifted LSPR leads to a broadened plasmon resonance. The FWHM of the plasmon resonance is thus not directly linked to the plasmon damping here. In our case the OA plays the same role as the fusion of the particles in the work of Dujardin et al. [36]. By attaching via epitaxy the initial nanoparticles, the OA process leads to a delocalization of the LSPR over several nanoparticles (the number of epitaxially attached nanoparticles varying among the sample), resulting eventually in a broad plasmon spectrum consisting of the sum of several shifted LSPR. When the OA is forbidden by embedding the particles in the matrix, the delocalization is not possible and hence the FWHM of the plasmon resonance is reduced. This statement may also explain the general broadening of the LSPR observed in most of the studies devoted to particle assembled films.

Conclusions

We have synthesized by adiabatic expansion Ga doped ZnO nanoparticles in the gas phase. The resulting clusters are crystallized and self-organize during deposition through oriented attachment, leading to nanocrystals of 20 nm of mean size. The incorporation of Ga up to 6% is efficient and homogeneous whereas for 9% Ga concentration, the Ga atoms are inhomogeneously distributed from particle to particle. The chemical analysis reveals that the Ga atoms are linked to O atoms and that 1/2 of them do not efficiently contribute to the LSPR. Nevertheless, the free electron concentration can be tuned from 1.8.10 20 cm -3 to 4.1.10 20 cm -3 . Accordingly, the LSPR is tuned from 4 µm to 3 µm. The LSPR are characterized by large damping, as reported for other metal oxide plasmonic nanocrystals. The damping is reduced when the GZO nanocrystals are isolated in an alumina matrix, thus forbidding the oriented attachment to occur. Complementarily to recent results from the literature stating the damping is ruled by the dopant segregation among the particles, our results show that the LSPR damping is also influenced by the organization of the nanocrystals. Of prime importance is the surface and interface state of the plasmonic oxide nanoparticles in limiting the activation of the dopants.

Figure 1 :

 1 Figure 1: a) low magnification TEM image of isolated GZO nanoparticles. Upper inset: high resolution

Figure 3 :

 3 Figure 3: Ga 2p3/2 peak for the 3%, 6% and 9% doped GZO nanoparticles (a), b) and c) respectively).

Figure 4 :

 4 Figure 4: FTIR reflectance spectra of GZO nanoparticles films with different Ga content deposited on Si substrates. A slight contribution of the OH vibration modes at approximately 3400 cm -1 (3 µm) can

Figure 5 :

 5 Figure 5: reflectance of 3% doped GZO nanocrystals assembling as a film or embedded in a Al2O3

Table 1 :

 1 The chemical compositions of the samples as deduced by EDS, XPS and RBS are summed up in table1. The RBS technique which probes the films over a large area (~1 mm 2 ) and in complete depth gives values which should be considered as reference values to be compared to values from other

	Nominal	XPS	EDS	RBS	nGa(cm -3 )	n (cm -3 )	n/nGa
	composition
	3%	2 ± 1%	4 ± 2%	3 ± 1%	3.3. 10 20	1.8. 10 20	0.5
	6%	5 ± 1%	6 ± 2%	8 ± 1%	5.8. 10 20	3.5. 10 20	0.6
	9%	5.4 ± 1%	8 to 45%	13 ± 1%	9.7. 10 20	4.1. 10 20	0.4

Ga content (at. % with respect to Zn) of the GZO nanocrystals as deduced from different techniques, EDS (at the particle scale), RBS (at the whole film scale) and XPS (at the scale of the first nanoparticle layer). Mean Ga concentration (deduced form RBS) and free electron density (deduced from Drude's model applied to the plasmon resonance). The ratio n/nGa indicates the fraction of Ga dopant actually contributing to the plasmon.

Acknowledgements:

The authors acknowledge the PLYRA (Plateforme Lyonnaise de Recherche sur les Agrégats http://www-lpmcn.univ-lyon1.fr/plyra/) platform for access to the nanoparticle generators. Thanks are due to the CLYM (Centre LYonnais de Microscopie http://www.clym.fr) for the access to the microscope JEOL 2010F and the IPNL (Institut de Physique Nucléaire de Lyon) for access to the Van de Graaff accelerator for RBS measurements.


Saddam Hussain
email: saddamakaash@gmail.com

Chunjiao Yu

Ali Sohail

Sadaf Manzoor

Ao Li

Assessing the Potential Economic Gains of China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor Energy Projects for Pakistan

Keywords: CPEC, OBOR, Social-Economic Development; Pakistan

published or not. The documents may come

Assessing the Potential Economic Gains of China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor Energy Projects for Pakistan

I. INTRODUCTION

China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC) is a mega project in the history with the collaboration of China and Pakistan. Due to prodigious gravity of energy projects, CPEC is also named as Pakistan-China Energy and Economic Corridor (PCEEC) [START_REF] Shaikh | Prospects of Pakistan-China energy and economic corridor[END_REF]. China being the leading business country of the present time, Pakistan being a good friend to China and the strategic position of Pakistan made this project happen on the soil and water of Pakistan which is considered to be utmost beneficial for both countries. Pakistan can be highly benefited from China being a technological advanced and innovative in the field of technology like making electric cars, green technology, robotic equipment and semiconductors etc. Furthermore, China being world second largest oil importer country [START_REF] Khurshid | Impact of CPEC energy projects on socio-economic development of Pakistan[END_REF]. Approximately, 54.8% of oil is imported through a very long route of 12900 km from Persian Gulf and East Africa. Economic Times Pakistan will also be greatly benefited with this project by fulfilling its energy needs and will overcome the energy crises to some great extent. Pak-China's relationship is actually based on four major perspectives namely economic interests and cooperation, security concerns, energy security and geostrategic interests [START_REF] Ali | The potential socio-economic impact of china Pakistan economic corridor[END_REF]. The basic factor of socio-economic development is considered to be energy [START_REF] Huang | Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: a dynamic panel data approach[END_REF]. Energy has a positive impact on the development and employment opportunities which is ultimately a positive sign toward prosperity [START_REF] Aqeel | The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan[END_REF][START_REF] Kakar | Energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan[END_REF]. CPEC is expected to help Pakistan overcome these energy crises by investing $33 billion on establishment of 22 energy projects till the end of 2020. Funding for these projects is made by China's state-owned bank (Exim Bank of China) at a discounted interest rate of 5% to 6% [START_REF] Bowman | Parastatals and economic transformation in South Africa: The political economy of the Eskom crisis[END_REF]. Pakistan is still suffering from energy crises while spending its 60% of www.ijbemw.com budget on import of fossil fuel which is a big strain for a crumbling economy like Pakistan [START_REF] Sheikh | Energy and renewable energy scenario of Pakistan[END_REF]. On the other hand, until 1993, China was self-sufficient in oil but later (2000-08) with rapid growth and increased production China also fall short with energy at home and became the 2nd highest consumer of oil after United States of America (USA) in 2003 [START_REF] Downs | Energy Security Series[END_REF]. During that period china single-handedly counted for 51% of world increasing demand for energy [START_REF] Crooks | Rethinking Global Land Use in an Urban Era[END_REF].This growing rate for oil consumption reached up to 90% before the COVID#19 and was moving higher but being affected by the virus the demand fall down by 40% (said Burkhard,( vice president and head of oil markets at IHS Markit) China drives global oil demand recovery out of corona virus collapse, Business News June 3 2020 [12]. This rising economic growth and demand for energy import, China needs access to energy suppliers through economically feasible and secure route. This is what the reality bases that China is looking at Pakistan as a dormant linkage in a regional framework of energy suppliers.

In current energy crises Pakistan is not in a position to be an energy exporter but its strategic position is so that it can be an alternative to the Energy Corridor to the Gulf countries, Central Asia and even Iran calls earnestly for energy interests of China [START_REF] Garlick | Deconstructing the China-Pakistan economic corridor: pipe dreams versus geopolitical realities[END_REF]. About the benefits and importance of CPEC energy projects, many books and articles have been written and no doubt that CPEC is an enormous important step taken by Pakistan with the collaboration of Chinese government with intentions to upgrade its infrastructure, provide employment and business opportunities to the people of Pakistan, overcome energy crises, enhance economic activities, establish new industrial parks, improve its trade and bring an overall prosperity in the country [START_REF] Hussain | China-Pakistan economic relations[END_REF].

Moreover, as Pakistan is not so stable economically to accomplish this mega project of CPEC. So, all the technological and financial cooperation is counted on China in order to transform and expand its energy resources [START_REF] Tiezzi | China Powers up Pakistan: The Energy Component of the CPEC[END_REF]. China has already a very strong collaboration in nuclear energy sector, and now can be hoped to shift its contribution to other resources of total energy mix. To a lesser extent, cooperation was made in hydroelectric projects but Pakistan is also looking forward the cooperation from China under CPEC's energy projects for much-required technological expertise and financial support for renewable energy technologies like energy from wind and sun [START_REF] Hussain | SWOT Analysis of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 1[END_REF].

This paper aims to assess the economic benefits of the energy projects of CPEC for Pakistan. As there maybe controversy concerning of the win-win effects of the constructions of the CPEC energy projects, the findings in this paper will provide rich implications for policymakers both from Pakistan and China.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW

CPEC is a versatile project which cover not only roads and routes but also the communication network, agricultural sector, energy sector, industrial sectors etc. as well. Our literature review covers two main portions. One part explains the current situation of the CEPC under the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative while in other part the potential economic gains of energy projects for Pakistan are explained. Since it is commenced and initiated six years ago, CPEC, a flagship launched project of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative -with a gigantic financial investment and a wide range of infrastructure and energy projects, some of which have already completed and some are still under construction all over Pakistan -has nowadays become the talk of the town throughout the economic world [START_REF] Sharma | China's one belt one road: Initiative, challenges and prospects[END_REF]. Pakistan is lucky enough and pleased being a part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [START_REF] Ali | Legal Cooperation in Perspective of Belt and Road Initiative and China Pakistan Economic Corridor[END_REF]. We can put the importance of BRT on the top of the list for Pakistan while consider the fact that Pakistan is a country which has a very limited access to the financial and capital market-such as Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. So, the policy of BRIproper development of infrastructure in the mentioned spam of time according to the needed requirements of your country-economy will grow and improve simultaneously. The fundamental objective is to establish an environment for economic growth, reduce unemployment, support trade and provide more opportunities and empower the people of pilot countries [START_REF] Hurley | Examining the debt implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a policy perspective[END_REF]. The present literature discusses that CPEC is multilateral, long-term, and comprehensive project. As there are different views from different schools of thoughts about its impact on the region and its ultimate results for Pakistan, especially Indian and U.S economic policy makers and their legislative members see and analyze this huge investment from China and its inference on its neighbor countries [START_REF] Hussain | China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Challenges and the way forward: Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States[END_REF]. This vision has a propensity to cast Pakistan simply as a helping hand to a mega strategic role in the Indian Ocean and Middle East for China. While others think of CPEC not only an investment scheme between Pakistan and China but a wide spread set-up of opportunities in the region -trade growth, economic collaborations and mutual cooperation [START_REF] Twining | As the US Pivots Away, China Bets on Pakistan[END_REF].

Furthermore, the intentions of United States and Iran also show anxiety about the mega project CPEC. For Iran the problem and reason of feeling uneasy and distress is Gawadar port -a deep-sea port which Iran take into account as a competitor to Chabahar port -Sea-port in Iran on the Strait of Hormuz with Indian contribution [START_REF] Hussain | China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Challenges and the way forward: Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States[END_REF]. So, in response to CPEC project of development of Gawadar port, Iran, India and Afghanistan also signed an agreement the major investment from India-$500 million for the development of Chabahar in response to Gwadar as a strategic port, with the intension to find an alternative route for trade with the Central Asian countries while bypassing Pakistan [23].

Similarly,some studies show that CPEC will raise the import ratio and overall debt value for Pakistan. Research has claimed that the debt value of Pakistan will reach to $3 billion by CPEC and that economic crises can result bringing Pakistan to "Circular Model" of economic crises [START_REF] Deng | Problems and Countermeasures in the Development of Transport Logistics in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor[END_REF].

Although CPEC will boost up Pakistan's economy but the above factors mentioned by Deng and Li in 2017 were also supported by Khaliq in 2018. According to him the total debt from China raised to $19 billion and 14 billion were to be added by CPEC project which will raise Pakistan's total debt to $40 billion by 2019. That's why there is the threat of becoming Pakistan as a colony of China [START_REF] Khaliq | Is Pakistan falling into China's debt trap. Liège: Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt[END_REF].

But after some detailed research from some researchers have shown the positive impacts of CPEC for Pakistan .Studies have shown that by linking Southwest of Pakistan to the Northwest of China, economic development will be encouraged by CPEC for both countries. There will be made a large investment in different projects under CPEC plan which will further attract the neighboring countries toward the investment which will help Pakistan drag out from the low economic growth, foreign direct investment and will bring improvement in the lifestyle of residents of the region [START_REF] Ali | China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC): Economic Transformation-Challenges and Opportunities for the Local Residents[END_REF]. Likewise, studiesof [START_REF] Ahmed | Impact of CPEC projects on agriculture sector of Pakistan: Infrastructure and agricultural output linkages[END_REF][START_REF] Alam | Impact of transport cost and travel time on trade under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)[END_REF][START_REF] Kanwal | Support for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor development in Pakistan: A local community perspective using the social exchange theory[END_REF][START_REF] Kanwal | China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development projects and entrepreneurial potential of locals[END_REF][START_REF] Kanwal | China-Pakistan economic corridor projects development in Pakistan: Local citizens benefits perspective[END_REF].We can conclude that CPEC is being flaunted as some sort of a magic dust that will make all of Pakistan's problems disappear. It has the potential for the much-needed economic benefits for Pakistan.

As economic growth has direct relation with production, that is totally dependent on energy, labor and capital. As the mainstream growth models or some bio-physical production models factually reveals that neither former factor of production is sufficient nor the latter two are sufficient for the production [START_REF] Stern | The role of energy in economic growth[END_REF]. For economic productivity, power energy is a fundamental input. Furthermore, demand for energy rises as production expands which results in an increase in energy consumptions [START_REF] Pandya | Impacts of foreign direct investment on economic growth: empirical evidence from Australian economy[END_REF][START_REF] Shahbaz | Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia[END_REF]. Pakistan being an energy consuming country loses its 2.5% of its annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to the shortfall of energy. This shortage of energy has hit grievously and have resulted a serious economic decline in industrial production sector, services sector and agricultural sector [START_REF] Ahmed | Impact of CPEC projects on agriculture sector of Pakistan: Infrastructure and agricultural output linkages[END_REF]. To overcome these shortages of energy Pakistan has put forward their struggles with thecooperation of Chinese government under the CPEC energy projects plan [START_REF] Wolf | The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: An assessment of its feasibility and impact on regional cooperation[END_REF]. China's sponsors have already put their efforts in enhancement and upgrading of power energy divisions but with the increase in population the demand and supply ratio of power energy never remained in the favor of Pakistan [START_REF] Rafique | National energy scenario of Pakistan-Current status, future alternatives, and institutional infrastructure: An overview[END_REF]. The only hope is now tied with CPEC energy projects that will help Pakistan overcome this serious issue [START_REF] Abid | CPEC: Challenges and opportunities for Pakistan[END_REF].

III. CURRENT SITUATION OF ENERGY OF PROJECTS UNDER PLAN IN PAKISTAN

The drum for CPEC being a part of BRI was beaten in 2013 when the Prime Minister of Pakistan Mr. Nawaz Sharif visited People Republic of China. CPEC is a long-term mega project having the time spam from 2014 -2030 [START_REF] Malik | The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): a game changer for Pakistan's economy China's Global Rebalancing and the New Silk Road[END_REF]. CPEC contains five main integrants:( 1 According to International Energy Agency (IEA) report Pakistan's energy generation capacity is 15000MW and demand is about 19000MW which sometimes reach 20000MW, and is expected to reach 25000 MW by 2025. Pakistan is already short of energy around 45000MW and the demand is increasing day by day with increase in population and their demands for energy. So, in such situation Pakistan has the only solution that is the fusion of local renewable power generation and storage technology which seems to be a prompt, proficient and after all a within the means which can also minimize the cost of improving and upgrading the infrastructure of power energy down to almost a naught. For the purpose to overcome energy crises, Pakistan has planned to make power storage system and planned renewable energy projects in collaboration with China under the CPEC plan that include 3 hydro-energy plants, four wind farms and a solar energy park. The power generation capacity of these energy projects is 3900MW and cost around $7.5 billion. Furthermore, according to Pakistan Alternative Energy Development Board, Pakistan has the capacity of generating 2.9 million MW solar energy, 340000MW from wind and 100000MW hydro-power energy under CPEC energy projects. CPEC being a mega project presently costs $62 billion is expected to make further investment of $100 billion which will be required in different projects till 2030. A major portion of $33.793 billion is already fixed to be invested in different energy projects [START_REF] Mirza | Impact of China-Pakistan economic corridor on Pakistan's future energy consumption and energy saving potential: Evidence from sectoral time series analysis[END_REF]. The projects are expected to generate around 17000MW electricity from different sources including coal, wind, hydro-power and solar energy to control the fast growing and pressing need of energy for Pakistan [START_REF] Zhang | Social impact assessment of investment activities in the China-Pakistan economic corridor[END_REF]. These projects also cover the transmission of energy generated.

For the detail progress of CPEC energy projects (See Table .  1) which shows the power energy production sources, locations and their current status.  Not yet finalized.

20

Western Energy (Pvt.) Ltd. 50MW Wind Power Project: This is a small project with the production capacity of 50MW.

 Not yet finalized.

CPEC-Potential Energy

IV. POTENTIAL ECONOMICS GAINS AND CHALLENGES OF CPEC ENERGY PROJECTS

A. Economics Gains i. Increasing of supply energy mix with cheaper prices:

Power energy is considered a basic need to run the industries and increase production capacity in order to develop economy, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) tried their best to control and fulfill this shortage but failed [START_REF] Ahmad | China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Complex Interdependence[END_REF]. Pakistan was unable to have control over this serious issue being short with resources i.e. financial and technological. So CPEC is the ideal, supportive and most beneficial project for Pakistan to full Pakistan from energy crises and make the production and services industries of Pakistan run again in a smooth and progressive way which will help to grow its economy up to 2% [START_REF] Hussain | Ir-607 Seminar On Selected Contemporary Issues Of International Politics[END_REF].

CPEC is considered as a fate changer project for Pakistan. Being a multi-billion dollars project, which has its major portion of budget for energy projects in Pakistan can bring a huge positive change in energy sector of Pakistan. Pakistan is facing energy crises since long which result an annual decrease of 2.5% in the GDP. From CPEC, it is expected that it will bring improvement in the GDP of Pakistan up to 2% [START_REF] Hussain | Ir-607 Seminar On Selected Contemporary Issues Of International Politics[END_REF]. In fact, this much essential support has been on the cards exclusively because of CPEC power projects, particularly coalfired power generation plants. Coal power generation capacity never touched the two digits figure over past two decades, However CPEC energy project based on coal fire power generation pushed forward the coal-based energy and it reach to the height of 12.7% in 2020 [47].

Major part of CPEC is consisted of Energy project. According to the report from Board of Investment (BOI) total amount to be invested by Chinese government was $46 billion initially and out which $33billion were reserved for different energy projects i.e. Hydro, wind, solar and coal energy projects www.ijbemw.com [START_REF] Zimmerman | The New Silk Roads: China, the US, and the Future of Central Asia: Center on International Cooperation[END_REF]. The basic purpose behind this idea was actually the development of western china by developing its transportation, communication system, involving road and railway, gas and oil pipe line from Gawadar port in Pakistan to a western city of china Kashgar [START_REF] Shaikh | Prospects of Pakistan-China energy and economic corridor[END_REF].

The significant sum of coal-fired generation capacity added in CPEC power projects point toward long-term intentions of expanding the country's fuel mix away from oil-based power plants to coal-based power generation, to produce cut-rate electricity. The greatest economic gain from the CPEC energy projects is the generation of cheaper electricity. As large amount of energy will be generated through coal which is a cheap source for Pakistan as compared to oil. So, by using its local resources (coal) other than imported (oil) the energy produced will cost low. Similarly Sate Bank of Pakistan also reported in 2014 that if Asian Development Bank could convert oil-based power plants to coal-based power generation plants, it could have decrease import bill by $418 million in case of importing coal and $716 million if local coal was used [START_REF] Schwab | The global competitiveness report 2013-2014[END_REF]. In October 2019, the annual cost of fuel in power generation reduced from 7.9% to Rs5.02 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). "The turn down in fuel cost was led bythe coal-based power generation cost, which shrank by8.3%. In December 2019 Pakistan generated 2,357 gigawatthours (GWh) energy which more than double in amount as compared to December 2018 [START_REF][END_REF].Report of Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20, showed that the installed capacity of electric power generation hasreached 37,402 MW in 2020 [START_REF] Bhutta | Installed power production capacity rises[END_REF].The total demand stood round about 25,000 MWfrom residential and commercial domains, while the distribution and supply capacity of electricity is caught up around 22,000 MW [START_REF] Rehman | Pakistan's electricity generation has increased over time. So why do we still not have uninterrupted supply?[END_REF].This difference in demand and supply leads to a shortfall of nearly 3,000 MW. Although the installed capacity was 37402 MW but even then, the extra demand of 3000 MW did notfulfill [56]. Economic Survey 2019-20 ofPakistan revealed the growth rate of 64% percent thatis installedcapability to produce electricity has raised up to 37,402 MW by June 2020 which was figured out 22,812 MW in June 2013 [57].Until now 4,000MW of power energy has been added to the national grid under the CPEC energy projects and further more a total of 17,000MW electric power energy is expected-in near future to be generated and added to the national grid station under the CPEC energy projects [58].

ii. Decreasing of the energy import dependence

As we know that energy plays a vital role in the development of any country and is a basic need of the day from individual to state level as a whole. Pakistan is one of the countries which are taking steps toward development and faces lack of resources. As discussed before that energy is an important factor for development so same is for Pakistan as well and Pakistan falls short for that. Presently, average demand of energy is 19,000MW while generation capacity is around 15000MW [START_REF] Uddin | Current and future prospects of small hydro power in Pakistan: A survey[END_REF]. Demand goes above 20,000MW during summer season due to extra burden of air-conditioning on electric power stations which results in power cuts and load shedding. It is forecasted that the demand will reach 49000MW by 2025 (reported by International Energy Agency). The massive variance in demand-supply of power energy has constrained the Pakistani government to trade in pricey oil. A considerable national funds has been given out for the import of oil which not only deteriorate the country financially but also enforced the National Electric and Power Authority (NEPRA) to raise electrical energy prices [START_REF] Irfan | Assessing the energy dynamics of Pakistan: Prospects of biomass energy[END_REF].Almost every sector has been badly affected, in particular Pakistan's leading fabric production industry, which has resulted 50%-60% of the textile industry shipment to cheaper energy countries i.e. China and Bangladesh.Figure4 shows the overall energy import of Pakistan from all around the world, that is, the annual trade volume of Pakistan's energy imports from the world.

After completion of Hydro, coal based and renewable power energy projects under the CPEC plan, the demand will decrease for foreign energy import and Pakistan will become self-sufficient in power energy sector [START_REF] Bukhari | Energy Dynamics Of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Cpec)[END_REF].

iii. Decreasing of trade deficit

Industrial sector which is badly affected by energy crises for couple of decades will flourish again. Production will be increased which will increase net export and decrease the import. So, the Trade Deficit will be decreased. As in the fiscal year 2017-18 trade deficit was increasing continuously and has reach to $14.6 billion. With the completion of some CPEC projects it imports decreased by 3. [66]https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/current-account

iv. Inducing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

A large number of econometric models are explained by excessive usage of energy that shows a positive correlation between energy consumption Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) [START_REF] Omri | Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models[END_REF].It is calculated and proved that an increase rate of 1% in renewable energy contributes in expanding FDI by 0.185 %. While in reverse situation an increase of FDI contributes to raising renewable energy by 0.292% [START_REF] Amri | The relationship amongst energy consumption, foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing countries[END_REF].

Pakistan got major assist from an increase in Chinese investment, overall 91% growth in Foreign Direct Investment mainly in power projects under the frame of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) energy projects. Figure 6. shows the Chinese investment in Pakistan's energy sector. It can be seen that the FDI from China increased rapidly after the implementation of the BRI from 2013.

As we talk about the sectors investment, the communication sector, mostly the 3G/4G service providers, attracted the largest foreign investment of $73.5 million in May 2020, followedby oil and gas exploration firms $18.6 million and financial businesses$15.5 million, a renowned Chinese scholar Prof. Zhou Rong said on Monday [START_REF] Beijing | UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News -27th[END_REF].Pakistan's foreign direct investment (FDI) has improved by 88% in fiscal year 2020 to $2.56 billion with major investment coming in the power and telecommunication sectors from China and Norway respectively.

Because of the setting up of stainless steel and petrochemical production industries, energy using up in the economy is supposed to growth at a higher speed (World steel association, 2016).Due, to the CPEC expansion, the growth rate of FDI for the period of Fiscal Year FY-17 stood at 12.75% [START_REF] Dar | Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17[END_REF]. It is anticipated that with the completion of CPEC the FDI will be enhanced in Pakistan due to rise in industrial activities, energy supply security and reinforced infrastructure to encourage the markets [START_REF] Mirza | Impact of China-Pakistan economic corridor on Pakistan's future energy consumption and energy saving potential: Evidence from sectoral time series analysis[END_REF]. Such a heavy investment in energy sector, Gwadar port, transport system, special economic zones and intensive energy use will attract foreign investors, increase Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade activities. This can lead Pakistan to high industrial development and high economic growth. All these above-mentioned factors are closely related to energy [START_REF] Zaman | Determinants of electricity consumption function in Pakistan: Old wine in a new bottle[END_REF]. So that's why all these economic activities are possible only because of CPEC energy projects.See (table II) which shows the growth rate of FDI in Pakistan after the CPEC projects launched. So, it is hoped that with the completion of all energy projects of CPEC, this ratio will further be decreased and employment opportunities will increase when trade is improved and industries are operating. 2.3million new job opportunities are expected to be provided by CPEC by 2030 [START_REF] Shah | Big Chinese-Pakistani Project Tries to Overcome Jihadists, Droughts and Doubts[END_REF]. The average number of employed persons in Pakistan was 39594.79 Thousand from 1986 until 2018, approaching to an all-time highest number of 62230 Thousand in 2017. Figure8 Shows a positive employment forecast trend in Pakistan. The CEPC Energy Corridor has pushed forward the industrial sector of Pakistan in a positive way and is expected to grow more and more. Industrial sector of Pakistan accounts for around 18.17% of GDP in 2018 it was increased by of 5.80% as compared to the last year growth of 5.43% in 2017 when some of energy projects started generating energy [START_REF] Shehzad | Assessment of Potential Effects of China Pakistan Economic Corridor on Development of Pakistan's Construction Industry[END_REF]. Major sector in industrial sector of Pakistan is that of manufacturing which accounted for around 12.13% of Pakistan's GDP [START_REF] Iqbal | Projecting impact of CPEC on Pakistan's electric power crisis[END_REF]. Industrial sector of Pakistan consists of cement industry, fertilizers, tobacco, food industry, steel, machinery, chemicals and medical instruments, primarily surgical [START_REF] Ahmed | Pakistan Surgical Industry. Structure, Issues/Problems & Recommendations[END_REF] all these manufacturing industries works on energy supply. And it is expected that industrial sector will grow it production rate after the completion of all energy projects. Table IV shows the growth rate (where sign is for positive Increase is for negative Decrease) of different industrial sector of Pakistan where we can see a clear improvement in the growth rate after CPEC launched and its energy production started.

Pakistan is an agricultural country and its major population depends on this sector. Its contribution in GDP is 18.3%. This sector provides about 37.4% of employment opportunities to the people and is the major source of foreign exchange earnings for Pakistan [START_REF]SBP[END_REF]. CPEC energy projects are expected to rise this ratio to a high mark as energy shortage will soon be covered, which will help improve irrigation sector and other chemical and fertilizers industry will enhance its production that will further increase the agricultural production. As we see an incredible growth rate of 3.5% in agricultural sector during 2017-18. Table . V shows the overall growth rate in agricultural sector of Pakistan. There is almost a positive trend in production of all crops. All the major crops showed a positive trend in their production [START_REF]Water shortages in Pakistan: An impending economic crisis -The Independent[END_REF]. All these sectors with their combined effect on the GDP have shown some positive response. As, we can see in the table .VI that shows the GDP growth of Pakistan. To guarantee prosperityalong with high yields per acre and high value-added products, modern agricultural measures and linking farmers with green farming is the required and most important tool. It is hoped that CPEC energy projects will highly support and will improve Pakistan's agricultural system.

vii. Potential flourishing of Mining

Pakistan is one of the naturally gifted countries with considerable natural resources (mines and minerals) countries of the world and is rising as a very capable country for the exploration of those sources. Mining contributes 2.8% of share to the total GDP of Pakistan. Apart from that 13.19% of Mining and excavation contributes in industrial sector as shown in table VII. This sector showed a growth rate 3.04% in 2018 in contrast to the negative growth of -0.38% in 2017. Pakistan has a lot of natural resources and industrial supportive minerals. The major contribution in energy sector is that of coal discovery which provides an alternative source of energy for manufacturing industries. Major contribution in this sector is the discovery of coal mines at Thar (Sindh), which has the capacity of over 175 billion tones [86].

CONCUSLION

The main purpose of present study is to explore the influence of CPEC's energy projects on theeconomic development of Pakistan. The study calls a halt that energy projects regarding CPEC contribute in solving all socio-economic problems like poor and substandard transport system, low Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and unemployment, health and education.

Based on our research findings, the following policy recommendations have been suggested for the Pakistani government. Being 70% of energy projects are coal-fired power generation plants so usage of advanced coal furnaces should be made certain to minimize the air pollution which can be a great threat in future.

1. Government of Pakistan is needed to renovate the old energy transmission infrastructure-to control energy losses and to utilize the new electric energy added by CPEC energy projects -in a proper and beneficent way.

2. Proper check and balance from government is required-to control corruption, push the work forward and to make CPEC plane happen as soon as possible-to minimize the risk from rival countries that feel unsecure from CPEC plane.

3. For the encouragement of FDI and exports-securities, financial supports-taxes redemptions and subsidies should be given to investors in order to appreciate their inflowencourage local products and ensure investors with maximum return on their investment. 4. Government should encourage the industrial sector to produce more innovative electronic products-subsidize them initially to make people used to with technological changesthat will minimize the consumption of energy and maximize the efficiency in long run development 5. Technical education in Pakistan needs to be encouragedtechnically rich and innovative brains are to be produced which can lead the country toward a prosperous and bright future.

Regardless of upbeats, some risks and challenges also cut the smooth operating way. Some major issues are like terror campaign in some provinces of Pakistan, security risks, un-fair allocation of funds, political clashes, poor infrastructure of local businesses, lack of business and trade awareness and technical labor force etc.

Figure 1 .

 1 Figure 1. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor [3](Talwar, 2015)Source: Economic Times

  ) Gwadar (development and up gradation of Gwadar Port reign and Gwadar city);(2) Energy projects (hydro, coal, solar and wind);(3) Infrastructure development;(4) Industrial growth and development;(5) Agricultural development and other areas of common interests like fiber optics etc. [40].

Figure 2 .

 2 Figure 2. China Pakistan Economic Corridor map [41](Shah & Page, 2015)

Projects 21 Phandar

 21 Hydropower Station: Power generating capacity of this power plant is 80MW Under review of experts from both sides, China and Pakistan 22 Gilgit KIU Hydropower: This hydropower project is of the production capacity of100MW. Under review of experts from both sides, China and Pakistan. Source. (CPEC Secretariat, "CPEC-Energy Priority Projects," China Pakistan Economic Corridor, accessed June 27, 2019 [44], http://cpec.gov.pk/energy)

  As per report of Pakistan's State Planning Commission in 2011, Pakistan could save $8 billion if they could convert fuel-oil-fired power plants to coal-fired plants. Which was almost equal to 4% of Pakistan GDP [49].Average production of Electricpower in Pakistan is8296.77 GWH from 2003-2019, in August of 2018 reached an all-time high level of 15790 Gigawatt-hour and touched the record lowest figure of 4195 Gigawatt-hour in the month of December same year of 2010. It is expected power energy production will reach to 14400 GWH by the end of 2020[50].While, predicting the future production of electricity we can estimate the trend to for next twelve months to be 10300GWH by the end of 2021.

Figure 3 .

 3 Figure 3. Pakistan Electricity Production2010-2020 Data | 2020-2021 Forecast Source. [51]https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/electricity-production As we can see in the fig. 3 which show an econometric model about historical and forecast production value of electricity in Pakistan.

Figure 4 .

 4 Figure 4. The overall situation of Pakistan's energy imports from 2006 to 2019. (That is, the annual trade volume of Pakistan's energy imports from the world

  Eventually CPEC energy projects played a vital role in pulling out Pakistan from those energy crises. According to a report of Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) 2014, Pakistan went through a record energy disaster. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2018-19, showed 2.5% growth rate, that is electricity production capacity went up to 34,282MW in2018-19 as compared to last year 2017-18 which was 33,433MW [62].

  2 billion and exports went up to $1.86 billion in the fiscal year 2018-19. So, trade deficit came down to $10.8 billion [63]. Pakistan's trade deficit for 11 months (July-May) FY20 was USD 21.06 billion compared to a deficit of USD 29.15 billion from the corresponding period from FY19. According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the trade deficit for the month of May 2020 was recorded at USD 1.46 billion compared to a deficit of USD2.247 billion from April 2020 showing an improvement of 35.02 percent. Compared to May 2019 deficit of USD 2.921 billion, the trade numbers improved by 50.02 percent Exports increased by 45.35 percent to USD 1.391 billion compared to USD 0.957 billion in April 2020. However, compared to May 2019 exports decreased by 33.64 percent, Imports in May 2020 decreased by 11.02 percent, clocking in at USD 2.851 billion compared to USD 3.204 billion in April 2020. Similarly compared to May 2019 imports decreased by 43.17 percent Overall the 11-month exports stood at USD 19.796 billion compared to USD 21.256 from the corresponding period of last year, showing an increase of -6.87 percent. Similarly Imports during the period decreased by 18.96 percent to USD 40.854 billion compared to USD 50.41 from the same period of FY19 [64]. But it was predicted and expected from some of the CPEC projects completion that exports will grow and import will be decreased in the years of 2019-20. The growth rate of 8.2% in exports and account deficit of 2.6% of the GDP rather than 4.6% as compared to the last year was recorded by International Monetary Fund (IMF) during this period [65]. In the second quarter of 2020, a Current Account deficit of 282 USD Million was recorded by Pakistan[66].Seefigure 5 that shows the decrease in current account deficit of Pakistan.

Figure 5 .

 5 Figure 5.Pakistan's Current Account deficit (Million USD). Source:[66]https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/current-account

Figure 6 .

 6 Figure 6. shows the overall situation of China's energy investment in Pakistan from 2006 to 2019. (i.e. China's energy investment in Pakistan each year)

  v. Employment creation effect A great potential benefit of CPEC to Pakistan lies in employment creation effect. Around 700,000 new job opportunities for local people of Pakistan are expected to be created by 2030 under the mega project of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). "Up to now numerous CPEC projects have offered direct job opportunities to almost 75,000 people across the country. According to recent survey conducted by CPEC Centre of Excellence, Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform of Pakistan, CPEC might help create even 1.2 million jobs under its presently agreed projects indirectly [73]. Unemployment rate from 2010 to 2013 was around 6% which gradually decreased in 2014 and onward in 219 it reached to 4.1% [75]. Figure7clearly shows the decrease trend ofunemployment rate in Pakistan.

Figure 7 .Figure 8 .

 78 Figure 7.Trend of unemployment rate in Pakistan. Source: [74]https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/unemployment-rate

Figure 8 .

 8 Figure 8. Growth in the output rate of manufacturing sector of Pakistan Source.[77]https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/PAK/pakistan/manufacturingoutput

TABLE I

 I

		Karot Hydropower Station: Total production capacity is 720MW and total cost of	 1st Unit Inaugurated in November 2017  Land acquisition award done.
		construction estimated is $1698.26million	 Second Unit Commercial Operation  Expected Commercial Operation Date
			cost is $1912.2million	Date (COD) 25th April 2018 (COD) December 2021
				 Current Status: Operational
	3	HUBCO Coal Power Project, Hub Baluchistan: Total capacity is 1320 MW and total	 Commercial Operation Date (COD)
			estimated cost is $1912.2 million.	achieved on 14th August 2019
				 Current Status: Operational
	4	Engro 2x330MW Thar Coal Power Project: Total capacity of output is 660 MW and total estimated cost is $995.4 million. Matiari to Lahore ±660kV HVDC Transmission Line Project: The total cost around 660 KV HVDC. estimated for the construction is $1658.34million.and the capacity of production is	 Feasibility study completed  Commercial Operation Date (COD) achieved on 10th July 2019  Expected COD in March 2021
				 Current Status: Operational
	16	Surface mine in block II of Thar Coal field, 3.8 million tons/year: The production capacity is not yet confirmed and the total cost is approximately $630 million. 300MW Imported Coal Based Power Project at Gwadar, Pakistan: Production capacity is 320MV and cost of construction is $542.32million.	 Groundbreaking done on 4th November  Financial close attained in April 2016  Mining work in progress 2019
	17	Thar Mine Mouth Oracle Power Plant (1320MW) & surface mine: This power palnt
	5	Quaid-e-Azam 1000MW Solar Park (Bahawalpur) Quaid-e-Azam: Total production is of the capacity of 1320 MW.
		capacity is 1000MW and estimated cost is $1301million.
		CPEC-Energy Actively Promoted Projects
	18	Kohala Hydel Project, AJK: This project is of the capacity to generate power energy	 Land Acquisition process started and
		1100 MV and total cost of construction is approximately $2364.05million	Expected Commercial Operation Date
				(COD) 2026
	19	Cacho 50MW Wind Power Project: This is a small project with the production
			capacity of 50MW.
				Commercial Operation Date (COD) : 16th
				June, 2017
				Current Status: Operational.
	8	Sachal Wind Farm (Jhimpir, Thatta): Total capacity of output is 49.5 MW and total	Commercial Operation Date (COD) attained
			estimated cost is $134million.	11 April, 2017 and Current Status is
				Operational.
	9	Three Gorges Second and Third Wind Power Project: Total capacity of power	 COD: Three Gorges Second Wind Farm
		production of both projects is 100MW and total cost of construction is $150 million.	(TGTWF): 30th June, 2018
				 COD: Three Gorges Third Wind Farm
				(TGTWF): 9th July, 2018
				 Current Status: Operational
	10	SSRL Thar Coal Block-I 6.8 mtpa& Power Plant (2×660MW) (Shanghai Electric):	 First Unit (660 MW) is targeted by Aug
		These two projects are total capacity of power production 1320 MW and estimated	2022
		cost of construction is $1912.2million.	 COD of complete project is targeted by
				Feb 2023
	11	HUBCO Thar Coal Power Project (Thar Energy): Total capacity of output	 Financial Closed (FC) achieved on 30th
		is330MW and total estimated cost is $497.7million.	January 2020
		.	CPEC'S ENERGY PROJECTS, THEIR POWER CAPACITY AND CURRENT STATUS  Target Commercial Operation
	#		Project Name and details	Progress Update Date(COD) date 31 March 2021
	1 12	Sahiwal 2x660MW Coal-fired Power Plant, Punjab: Each capacity of the power ThalNova Thar Coal Power Project: Total production capacity is 330MW and total	 Under Financial Closed (FC)
		plant with the production capacity of 660MW. Total production is 1320MW and estimated cost is $1912.2million. cost of construction estimated is $497.70million.	 Target Commercial Operation Date
				(COD) 31 March 2021

 Project Completed in 28th October 2017  Current Status: Operational 2×660MW Coal-fired Power Plants at Port Qasim Karachi: Each with the production capacity 660 MW. Total production capacity is 1320MW and estimated  COD of 4x 100 MW attained in August 2016  600MW Under construction 6 Hydro China Dawood Wind Farm (Gharo, Thatta): Total capacity of output is 49.5 MW and total estimated cost is $112.65 million.  Commercial Operation Date (COD) attained 5th April, 2017  Current Status: Operational 7 UEP Wind Farm (Jhimpir, Thatta): Total capacity of output is 99 MW and total estimated cost is $250million.

 Feasibility stage tariff obtained for coal.

TABLE II

 II [72].http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/NetinflowSummary.pdfhttp://www.s bp.org.pk/ecodata/exp_import_BOP_Arch.xls

					.	GROWTH RATE OF FDI IN PAKISTAN (MILLION US $)
				NAME	FY 2014		FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY2020 (July)
				F or ei gn
				di re c t	1698.6	1033.8	2392.9	2406.6	2780.3 1362.4	2401.4
				i nves t me n t
	Source.Data	is	from	State	Bank	of	Pakistan
	(SBP)

TABLE III

 III

	.	GROWTH IN THE OUTPUT RATE OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR
		OF PAKISTAN
		Date	Output Billion US ($)
		12/31/2013	31.37199
		12/31/2014	33.0924
		12/31/2015	34.60978
		12/31/2016	33.66358
		12/31/2017	36.54362
		12/31/2018	38.32723
		12/31/2019	34.65827

TABLE IV .

 IV

INDUSTRIAL GROWTH RATE IN PAKISTAN INDUSTRIAL S.

NO List FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018

		growth rate
	6	Slaughtering sector growth rate	3.53%	3.63%	3.38%	3.34%	3.61%	3.55%	3.50%
	1	Industrial sector growth rate	2.55%	0.75%	4.53%	5.18%	5.69%	4.55%	4.61%
	2	Mining and Quarrying sector growth rate	5.16%	3.88%	1.40%	4.97%	6.19%	-0.60%	7.80%
	3	Manufacturing sector growth rate	2.08%	4.85%	5.65%	3.88%	3.69%	5.83%	5.43%
		Large Scale
	4	Manufacturing	1.13%	4.46%	5.46%	3.28%	2.98%	5.64%	5.12%
		growth rate
	5	Small Scale	8.35%	8.28%	8.29%	8.21%	8.19%	8.15%	8.17%
		Manufacturing
	www.ijbemw.com

Source.

[81]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_of_Pakistanhttps://en.wikip edia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Pakistan#cite_note-:7-79

TABLE V

 V

							.	GROWTH RATES IN AGRICULTURE SECTOR
	Sector	FY 2004	FY 2005	FY 2006	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020
	Growth	2.85%	7.02	1.27	3.42	1.81	3.50	0.23	1.96	3.62% 2.68% 2.50%	2.13%	0.15	2.18%	4.00	0.58	2.67
	rate		%	%	%	%	%	%	%					%		%	%	%
	Source. Main article [84]. Agriculture in
	Pakistanhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Pakistan
	Data source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Pakistan#cite_note-
	:7-81

TABLE VI

 VI

	.	PAKISTAN'S GDP GROWTH RATE
	DATE	GDP (Billions of US $)
	12/31/2013	231.2185672
	12/31/2014	244.3608888
	12/31/2015	270.5561317
	12/31/2016	278.6546377
	12/31/2017	304.5672532
	12/31/2018	314.5675416
	12/31/2019	278.221906
	Source.[85]https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/PAK/pakistan/manufac
	turing-output, http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/

TABLE VII .

 VII SHOWS THE GROWTH CHANGES INFORMATION ABOUT MINING AND QUARRYING SECTOR OF PAKISTAN

	SECTOR NAME	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018
	Mining	5.16%	3.88%	1.40%	4.97%	6.19%	-0.60%	7.80%

Source.

[86] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry of Pakistan

Suki Kinari Hydropower Station, Naran,Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa: Total production capacity is 870MW and total cost of construction estimated is $1707million.  Financial Close achieved on 31st December 2016 and Expected Commercial Operation Date (COD) December 2022.