Haiying Liu
email: hliu@objectvideo.com

Omar Javed
email: ojaved@objectvideo.com

Geoff Taylor

Xiaochun Cao
email: xcao@objectvideo.com

Niels Haering
email: nhaering@objectvideo.com

Omni-Directional Surveillance for Unmanned Water Vehicles

This paper proposes a framework for automatic maritime visual surveillance using an unmanned water vehicle (UWV). The UWV is equipped with a GPS, an e-compass and a high resolution omni-camera. A fast algorithm is proposed to automatically calibrate the moving omni-camera in real time. Moreover, a saliency based visual attention method is used for target detection. Targets are tracked using adaptively selected discriminative features and mean shift. Target locations are then geo-registered to a map, and displayed on a situational awareness console. Experiments on real data in a system deployment demonstrate the effectiveness of the maritime surveillance framework.

Introduction

Maritime surveillance systems can play a key role for port protection. Traditional maritime surveillance systems rely on radars to monitor targets. Though radars are good at long range detection, they do not provide any visuals of the targets, which could make threat detection more difficult and less effective. Radars have dead zones close to their base location. In addition, the strong radio beam is also harmful to living beings. All these shortcomings make visual surveillance systems an attractive alternative. Intelligent video surveillance systems usually ingest video feeds that are from static or PTZ cameras . However, over large water bodies, installing stationary cameras is either not possible or is cost prohibitive. Therefore, a fully mobile camera system is a more efficient way of maintaining situational awareness over large water bodies.

Omni cameras have been used frequently for surveillance because of their 360 • view capability. Most of the previously proposed systems used either a single stationary camera [START_REF] Boult | Omni-directional visual surveillance[END_REF][START_REF] Boult | Frame-rate omnidirectional surveillance and tracking of camouflaged and occluded targets[END_REF][START_REF] Cielniak | Appearance-based tracking of persons with an omnidirectional vision sensor[END_REF], or multiple static cameras [START_REF] Ng | An integrated surveillance system human tracking and view synthesis using multiple omni-directional vision sensors[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Omni-directional camera networks and data fusion for vehicle tracking in an indoor parking lot[END_REF]. Recently, mobile omni-camera systems have been proposed. Sanae et al. [START_REF] Sanae | Moving object detection by mobile stereo omni-directional system (sos) using spherical depth image[END_REF] used stereo pair of mobile omni-cameras to obtain depth maps of the scene. The difference between predicted and actual depth images over time was used to detect targets. Gandhi and Trivedi [START_REF] Gandhi | Motion analysis for event detection and tracking with a mobile omni-directional camera[END_REF] used a single mobile omni-camera for surveillance. Targets were detected by compensating for ego-motion and finding the outliers. Note that, unlike the above mentioned research, our proposed mobile omni-camera system is installed on a UWV, and performs target detection, tracking and geo-localization in the challenging maritime environment. In such an environment, feature based calibration or ego-motion compensation is not possible because of the lack of stable features on the water-surface. In addition, background modeling is not possible because of the mobility of the camera. The presence of wake, waves, and sun glitter also makes surveillance in a maritime environment difficult.

This paper proposes a framework to overcome these challenges (Figure 1). The UWV's omni-camera is selfcalibrated using the horizon line in the maritime scene. Targets are detected using a saliency based model and tracked using adaptively selected discriminative features. Each target is then geo-registered to a latitude/longitude coordinate. The target geo-location and appearance information is then wirelessly transmitted to the fusion sensor, where the target location and image is shown on a map. The target location and velocity is also checked against pre-defined rules. These rules or events can be defined by the UWV operator using a console. If any event is triggered, the alert would show up on the console. Overall, this paper is focused on the computer vision part of the framework, namely camera self calibration, target detection, tracking, and georegistration.

The rest of the paper is organized as follow. Section 2 formulates the challenges and their solutions. The evaluation of a real system deployment is described in section 3, followed by the conclusion in section 4.

Problem Formulation

Each of the challenges mentioned in section 1 is formulated in this section. We focus on computer vision solutions to these challenges.

Omni-Camera Self-Calibration

In a mobile platform such as UWV on the water, most of the perspective camera calibration methods are likely to fail due to the constant UWV motion1 and the lack of stationary markers on the water surface. To turn the disadvantage into advantage while achieving 360 • coverage, the perspective camera is replaced by an omni-camera.

Omni-Camera Geometry

The omni-camera is one type of single effective viewpoint cameras with central projections. A central projection could be modeled as a mirror and a orthographic/perspective camera [START_REF] Baker | A theory of catadioptric image formation[END_REF]. When the mirror surface is planar, it is downgraded as a perspective camera. When the mirror is parabolic, elliptic, or hyperbolic, it becomes an omni-camera. All these cameras could be modeled by a unit-ball and an image plane. There are two centers in this model -one is the reflecting center determined by the mirror surface curve (parabolic, elliptic, or hyperbolic) and the other is the projecting center located at the center of the unit ball. Figure 2 gives a vertical cross section with the ball center and a scene point in the plane. It shows how the mirror surface affects the image of the scene. The point in the 3-D scene projects toward the projecting center (ball center) and reflects to the image plan. Depending on the mirror geometry, the image of the point is reflected at the different locations.

Most commonly used omni-cameras have a parabolic mirror. The reflecting center is located at the top of the unit ball in the model. Consider a general scenario in Figure 3, where the omni-camera tilts θ degrees toward a scene point at (R, H) and the scene point is α degree down the omnicamera. Set the world coordinate center at the unit ball cen- ter O and the image coordinate center o at the projection of the unit ball center (i.e. omni-image field of view (FOV) center). The two horizon vanishing point project at r 1 and r 2 and the scene point projects at r in the image plane. we have the following geometry relationship for θ:

cos θ r 1 = 1 -sin θ 2 + h , cos θ r 2 = 1 + sin θ 2 + h (1) ⇒ sin θ = r 1 -r 2 r 1 + r 2 , h + 2 = √ r 1 r 2 (2)
⇒ θ = arcsin r 1 -r 2 r 1 + r 2 , θ ∈ - π 2 , π 2 (3)
We also have the geometry relationship for α:

cos α r = 1 + sin α 2 + h (4) eqn(2) =⇒ α = arcsin r 1 r 2 -r 2 r 1 r 2 + r 2 , α ∈ - π 2 , π 2 (5)
The distance R between the scene point and the camera is:

R = H tan(β), where β = π 2 -α -θ. ( 6
)
Theoretically, for the planar motion such as watercrafts moving on the water, camera height H is a constant. Equations (3)(5) [START_REF] Canny | A computational approach to edge detection[END_REF] imply that if the horizon line could be detected in the image plane, the target distance could be easily computed. In addition, the horizon line could be used to improve the target detection and tracking by limiting the processing in the water region. This not only reduces false alarm but also speeds up the processing.

In the following sections, we propose a fast algorithm to detect horizon line in real time for a high resolution (at least 1280 × 1024) omni-image.

Omni-Image FOV Detection

The omni-image field of view (FOV) (including the circle and its center) needs to be detected for two reasons. One is that the FOV center is used to measure r, r 1 , and r 2 in Figure 3; the other is that the pixels outside of the FOV could be safely ignored to speed up the processing. Figure 4(a) shows a typical omni-image frame. Since the FOV is fixed once the omni-camera is assembled, it only needs to be estimated once. In our system, the FOV is detected automatically by the following algorithm:

1. Compute the edges using Canny edge detector [START_REF] Canny | A computational approach to edge detection[END_REF]; Since it only runs once for the first frame, it does not have to be real time.

Horizon Line Detection

For a high resolution image, 2D feature detection (such as edge detection, hough transform, etc.) is computationally expensive and impractical for real time processing. Moreover, the horizon line detection is only the first step of the omni-image processing. It needs to run faster than the real time. Noticing that the projection of the horizon line is an ellipse in the omni-image plane, we decompose the horizon line detection problem into two subproblem: horizon vanishing point detection and ellipse fitting. The advantage of this method is that its computational cost is insensitive to the image resolution. It only depends on the number of vanishing points and the belt in which horizon line appears.

f (r i ) = d (r i ) -e c (r i ) -e l (r i ) (8) r i = arg r i max (f (r i )) (9)
Here, d (r i ) is the central difference of I(θ i ) at r i ; e c (r i ) and e l (r i ) is the fitting error for the first half (a constant) and the second half (a line) of the step function respectively. Essentially, equation ( 9) estimates the horizon vanishing point at the intersection of sky and water in the image plane, where the sky intensity tends to be a constant, the water intensity tends to fit into a line, and it expects to have a sudden intensity change from sky to the water.

Once the horizon vanishing points are detected, an ellipse is fit to find the horizon line, which is an ellipse in the omni-image plane. There are many ways to fit an ellipse. To achieve high speed processing, the direct least square fitting approach proposed in [START_REF] Fitzgibbon | Direct least square fitting of ellipses[END_REF] is chosen. This method is not only efficient (no slow iterations) but also robust to data noise.

Confidence Measurement

The quality of the horizon ellipse in omni-image plane depends on the quality of the horizon vanishing points. In [START_REF] Fitzgibbon | Direct least square fitting of ellipses[END_REF], the ellipse is represented by a general conic in the form of second order polynomial:

ax 2 + bxy + cy 2 + dx + ey + f = 0 (10)
Since only five points are needed to fit the ellipse, we have the luxury to choose only the good quality horizon vanishing points. In our algorithm, only those points whose

d(r i ) > T d , e c (r i ) < T ec
, and e l (r i ) < T e l [START_REF] Gandhi | Motion analysis for event detection and tracking with a mobile omni-directional camera[END_REF] are used in ellipse fitting. Here T d , T ec , and T e l are the thresholds for the central difference, constant fitting error, and line fitting error; d(r i ), e c (r i ), and e l (r i ) are defined in equation ( 8). Furthermore, an ellipse is valid only when the number of fitting points is greater than T N (minimum 6), the ellipse fitting error is less than T f , and the ellipse eccentricity is greater than T e . Here T N , T f , and T e are the thresholds to directly control the ellipse fitting.

Target Geo-Registration

Once the horizon ellipse in the omni-image gets detected, r 1 and r 2 in equation (3)(5) are known. With the fixed known camera height H, the distance R between the target and the omni-camera could be computed from equation [START_REF] Canny | A computational approach to edge detection[END_REF]. The geometry of the omni-camera guarantees that the heading of the target in the map γ is

γ = γ o + γ i + γ c , ( 12
)
where γ o is the (constant) offset from image north to compass north, γ i is the target heading in image, and γ c is the compass reading. Offsetting the omni-camera GPS location by the distance R and the heading γ, the target is georegistered on the map.

Target Detection

Traditional target detection techniques like background modeling are not suitable for a UWV mounted sensor since the sensor can move at speeds up to 20 knots, causing the background to change substantially for each incoming frame. Supervised classifiers have also been used for target detection in surveillance scenarios, however they perform well only for target classes with limited variation in appearance like faces [START_REF] Yang | Detecting faces in images: A survey[END_REF], cars [START_REF] Agarwal | Learning to detect objects in images via a sparse, part-based representation[END_REF] etc. In the case of maritime surveillance, we are interested in detection of all bodies floating in the water. These include all watercraft ranging from jet skis to freighters. Target detection on water is a challenging problem not only due to the large variation in shape and appearance of watercraft but also because of the presence of clutter in the maritime environment due to surf, bright sun glitter, wake and waves.

In order to deal with the above mentioned problems, we employ a saliency-based visual attention algorithm for the detection of non-specific conspicuous targets in cluttered maritime scenes. This method loosely follows the selective visual attention model proposed by Itti et al. [START_REF] Itti | Computational modeling of visual attention[END_REF], which is inspired by the behavior and the neuronal architecture of the early primate visual system. According to Itti's model, the visual input is first decomposed into a set of feature maps. Within each feature map, center-surround filters are employed so only the locations which are distinct persist. Finally the salience maps for each feature are combined into a single salience map.

Figure 5 gives the details of the detection algorithm used in the UWV system. For each input image, two sets of features are extracted. One set consists of local color histograms and the other set consists of local edge orientation histograms. These histograms are extracted around each image point at three different scales, with the exception of the image regions occupied by the UWV itself which are not included in the feature extraction process. The reason for using two different sets of features is that we want to detect salient regions that are different, either in color or texture, from their surroundings.

Next, center-surround computations are carried out for both color and edge orientation feature sets. These consists of calculating the distance between histograms computed at successive scales (but centered at the same pixel location) for each feature set. Please note that, before carrying out the distance calculation, the pixels contributing to the histogram with smaller support region are removed for the histogram with the larger support region. The Bhattacharyya coefficient [START_REF] Collins | Mean-shift blob tracking through scale space[END_REF] is used as the distance measure between the histograms. Since histograms were obtained at 3 different scales, two center-surround salience maps are obtained for each feature set. We use the integral histogram approach proposed by Porikli [START_REF] Porikli | Integral histogram: A fast way to extract histograms in cartesian spaces[END_REF] for fast computation of the salience maps. The integral histogram approach is computationally efficient, both for multi-scale histogram construction and inter-histogram distance calculation. A weighted combination of the four center-surround salience maps is used to compute the final salient target map. Each map has an associated weight parameter. The four weights parameters are estimated using a linear weight learning procedure given in [START_REF] Itti | Computational modeling of visual attention[END_REF]. This procedure increases the weights of those salience maps which show higher peak activity inside the target regions than outside. Note that this is a one time procedure and the weights remained fixed through out the testing of the system. Figure 6 shows that targets of a variety of scales are robustly detected even in the presence of significant glitter and surf.

Target Tracking

Once a new target is identified, the tracking algorithm assumes the task of segmenting the target and estimating the state (position, orientation, scale and velocity) in subsequent frames. An independent tracking algorithm is necessary since the center-surround detector is not designed to provide good foreground segmentation or consistent tracking as the target moves into the very near and far fields. Like the center-surround detector, our tracking algorithm exploits the fact that watercraft are generally sparsely distributed and the background has a roughly homogeneous appearance over an extended local region. This enables the effective use of adaptively selected discriminative features [START_REF] Collins | On-line selection of discriminative tracking features[END_REF][12] and tracking of targets independently without explicit consideration of multiple target tracking. The following sections detail the process of tracking a single watercraft.

Track Initialization

New targets are initialized from the center-surround detections that do not overlap with existing targets. Since the detection may cover only a small fraction of a target, the first step is to segment the complete target based on the partial detection. This is achieved by building a background color histogram over an ring-shaped region centered on the detection but large enough to exclude the target with high likelihood. A foreground model is then constructed from the colors associated with the smallest histogram bins that cumulatively account for no more than 5% of the background pixels. Using the fore-ground model, pixels in the neighborhood of the detection are labeled as foreground or background. The largest connected foreground region overlapping the detection is selected as the target, and a target ellipse is computed from the image moments [START_REF] Han | Object tracking by adaptive features extraction[END_REF].

Before accepting a new track, target saliency is validated by requiring persistent detection over a short temporal window (typically 2 sec). The new target track must overlap with one or more center-surround detection for a minimum fraction of frames (typically 0.5) within the validation window otherwise the track is discarded.

Adaptive Discriminative Feature Selection

Our tracking algorithm uses adaptively selected discriminative color subspace features based on the approach in [START_REF] Collins | On-line selection of discriminative tracking features[END_REF], and similar in principle to the center-surround detector. A discriminative subspace provides good separation between foreground and background pixels; the tracking algorithm evaluates the most discriminative subspaces in each frame and uses those to track the target in the subsequent frame. We consider seven linearly independent subspaces corresponding to the three channels, three independent color differences and intensity, and an eighth non-linear subspace corresponding to hue. We found performance to be satisfactory using only these color spaces rather than the full 49 subspaces used in [START_REF] Collins | On-line selection of discriminative tracking features[END_REF]. During tracking, the current frame is projected into each color subspace. A foreground histogram φ f g is accumulated from pixels in the target ellipse and a background histogram φ bg is accumulated from pixels in a surrounding elliptical ring. A log likelihood ratio is then computed for each histogram bin as:

L(i) = max (φ f g (i), δ) max (φ bg (i), δ) (13)
where δ = 1/ max (N f g , N bg ), and N f g , N bg are the number of foreground and background pixels respectively. To limit drift of the appearance model, the above likelihood map with the initial likelihood map for the target. Finally, a likelihood image is constructed by projecting each pixel into the N f most discriminative color sub-spaces from the previous frame and averaging the likelihood ratio for the corresponding histogram bins. Target pixels in the resulting image are expected to have a positive likelihood while background pixels have a negative likelihood. See Figures 7 and8(second column) for examples of likelihood image output.

Subspace discriminability is evaluated using the following measure:

S = i (φ f g -φ bg ) L(i) ( 14
)
This measure is based on the intuitive notion that discriminative subspaces produce a high foreground likelihood and low background likelihood. The above measure is more robust and computationally efficient than the "variance ratio" introduced in [START_REF] Collins | On-line selection of discriminative tracking features[END_REF]. In particular, the variance ratio unduly penalizes a multi-modal background distribution even if it is separable from the foreground. The measure in equation ( 14) provides a good measure of separability despite multi-modal or high variance foreground and background distributions. As mentioned earlier, the discriminability of each color subspace is measured after updating the target in each frame, and the best N f subspaces are used to track the target in the subsequent frame. Figure 7 illustrates the robustness of the adaptive tracker to significant changes in foreground and background appearance. The target initially appears as a backlit silhouette on a bright background (top row), while at the end of the sequence the target has moved to a diametrically opposite location and appears as a bright target on a dark background (bottom row). Despite this dramatic variation, the tracker selects the appropriate feature in each frame and maintains track.

Since evaluating multiple subspaces is computational expensive, two measures are implemented to maintain realtime tracking performance. Firstly, the likelihood map is only computed in a local region around the predicted target location. Furthermore, the image is dynamically subsampled to maintain an ap-proximately constant number of pixels on target over all scales.

Scale Adaptive Mean Shift Update with Orientation Prior

A mean-shift procedure [START_REF] Collins | Mean-shift blob tracking through scale space[END_REF][5] is used to update the location and scale of the target given the likelihood image. Before applying mean-shift, the target location is predicted from the previous frame using the estimated velocity and interframe sample time. The prediction is corrected for camera tilt by adjusting the radial position of the target to maintain the same relative distance between the image center and estimated horizon ellipse in both the previous and current frames.

Targets can undergo a significant change in scale while moving from far field to near field in the omni-camera image. To maintain track, we use two inter-leaved meanshift searches over location and scale respectively, similar to [START_REF] Collins | Mean-shift blob tracking through scale space[END_REF]. The possibility of the target moving around the omnicamera "donut" also requires the orientation of the target ellipse to be updated. How-ever, a systematic orientation bias due to the geometry of the omni-camera allows us to use the fixed orientation prior shown in Figure 9 rather than searching over orientations using mean shift. Finally, a Kalman Filter is applied to the new target location from the mean-shift procedure to estimate the location and velocity of the target ellipse. For the omni-camera, the polar coordinate is more appropriate than the Euclidean coordinate in estimating the location and the velocity because it tends to be more linear when a target is moving in a straight line at a constant speed.

Experiments

The framework was tested on a real deployment of the system. An omni-camera with a resolution of 1280 × 1200 was installed at the height of about 3.9 meters on a sensor boat (acting as a UWV). A small 7 meter long target boat was moving around the sensor boat. The target boat was also equipped with (Garmin) GPS for ground-truthing purpose. The distance between the two varied from a few meters to hundreds meters. The system is capable of detecting and tracking multiple targets at the same time. For evaluation purpose, we use only one target boat.

Figure 6 shows a typical surveillance scenario in which a target boat approaches the sensor boat. Strong glitter, wave, and wake impose great challenges on horizon line detection, target detection, and tracking. We evaluate the system performance when the target boat is within 100 meters of the sensor boat. Beyond this range a 7 meter long target boat, in a 1280 × 1200 image from a omni-camera at a height of 3.9 meters, is too small and too close to the horizon line to be practically detected in a robust way. Please note that this range should not be considered as the limitation of our framework. Higher image resolution and camera altitude would certainly allow the detection of targets at a greater distance. The system performance was evaluated in terms of both target detection in the image domain and target geolocation in latitude and longitude on the map. The image performance is measured by the detection precision and recall:

precision = n h n d , recall = n h n g ( 15
)
where n h is the number of total hits, n d is the number of total detections, and n g is the number of ground truth targets. Ground truth is obtained by manual marking of targets. A hit is claimed when the overlap of ground truth and the detected bounding box is greater than a threshold percentage of the detected bounding box. Three test videos with the total duration of around 10 minutes were used. The hit/miss/false alarm rates for the three test video clips are shown in Table 1. Overall, the system was able to detect 2860 out of 3105 target instances with a total of 239 false alarms. The precision and recall for the detection are 92.29% and 92.11% respectively. The map performance is measured by the distance between ground-truth target GPS location and estimated location:

d g = lt -l s , d e = |l t -l s | , e = l t -lt (16)
where lt and l t is ground-truth and estimated target GPS location, l s is sensor GPS location, d g is the ground-truth distance, d e is the estimated distance, and e is the error measure. Equation ( 16) evaluates both distance in equation ( 6) and heading in equation [START_REF] Han | Object tracking by adaptive features extraction[END_REF]. The result is shown in Figure 10, where the ground-truth distance is depicted in a blue solid line, the estimated distance is in red dashed line, the error is in black solid line, and the mean error is in magenta dash-dot line. Given the GPS has ±3 ∼ 5 meter error, the distance mean error of 5.8831 meter is fairly accurate. The error is larger when the target is far away from the camera. This is because the pixels near the horizon line cover larger area than the pixels near the FOV center. One pixel error in horizon line estimate or target detection would cause larger error in distance. It could also be observed that the error increases when the target boat is in the wakes generated by the sensor boat. This is because that the wake around the boat pushes the footprint away from the target center and makes the projected footprint closer to the camera. Furthermore, wake at the tail of the boat could potentially bias the average background likelihood higher and increase the automatic foreground threshold used in finding the footprint. This could be overcome by running the sensor boat at lower speed while doing the target detection and tracking.

Figure 11 shows a snapshot of the rule/alert console. The circle is the effective detection range. The target is labeled as a moving dot with its track. An unwarpped target video window is associated with the target label to provide the target's visual information to the user.

Conclusion

Lack of markers and dynamic water background make map-based maritime visual surveillance on a mobile platform very difficult. We propose an omni-camera based framework to meet these challenges. A horizon line estimation method, which is insensitive to image resolution, is proposed for fast self-calibration. A salience based visual attention model is shown to be effective for target detection in a dynamic water background. Mean shift tracking on adaptively selected discriminative features provides reliable target tracking over water. In a real system deployment, the proposed framework is shown to achieve fast selfcalibration, robust target detection, reliable target tracking,

Figure 1 .

 1 Figure 1. System overview

Figure 2 .

 2 Figure 2. Omni-camera Model.

Figure 3 .

 3 Figure 3. Omni-camera self calibration.

2 . 3 . 4 .

 234 Define a searching space (a i , b i , r i ), i = 1, 2, ...N around the image center. Here (a i , b i ) is the FOV circle center and r i is the radius; Map the edge points into the the searching space using Hough transform; Look for the point (a m , b m , r m ) in the searching space that accumulates maximum number of edge pixels e m,j , j = 1, 2, ..., M ; 5. Refine the FOV circle using e m,j ;

Figure 4 .

 4 Figure 4. Horizon vanishing point detection.

Figure 4 (

 4 Figure4(a) shows a typical frame of a maritime omniimage. The intensity of the pixels on the radial (120 degree from the image north) marked near the horizon line is plotted in Figure4(b). It is observed that the curve could be fitted into a step function. The horizon vanishing point is at the location where the curve is discontinuous. Considering that the reflection of the water gets higher intensity at the pixels further from the camera, a line could be fitted in the second half of the step function to get more accurate horizon vanishing point estimate. The horizon vanishing point detection is formulated as follow. Set the polar coordinates origin at the FOV center and zero degree to the image north (as shown in Figure4(a)). The positive polar angle θ is clockwise. Let FOV radius be R. Denote by I(θ i ) the intensity value of pixels on the radial {(r, θ i )|r ∈ (r 0 , R), r 0 < R}[START_REF] Cielniak | Appearance-based tracking of persons with an omnidirectional vision sensor[END_REF] at polar angle θ i . The horizon vanishing point is at (r i , θ i ) (Figure4(b)), where

Figure 6 .

 6 Figure 6. Salient target detection. Note that, the method is able to detect targets of a variety of scales, in the presence of significant glitter and surf.

Figure 7 .

 7 Figure 7. Tracking over significant change in orientation and appearance. Blue rings indicate background regions, green squares indicate center-surround detections. Frames are cropped for clarity.

Figure 8 .

 8 Figure 8. Tracking over significant change in scale. Blue rings indicate background region. Frames are cropped for clarity.

Figure 9 .

 9 Figure 9. Orientation prior.

  Figure 7 and Figure 8 illustrate successful tracking over significant changes in orientation and scale.

Figure 10 .

 10 Figure 10. Ground-truth distance (blue solid line), estimated distance (red dashed line), error (black solid line), and mean error (magenta dash-dot line).

Figure 11 .

 11 Figure 11. A target detected, tracked, and geo-registered on the map.

Table 1 .

 1 Detection Performance

	Video Clip	1 st	2 nd	3 rd	Sum
	Duration (sec)	240	289	92	621
	Hit	1065	1335	460	2860
	Miss	135	110	0	245
	False Alarm	85	125	29	239
	Precision	92.61% 91.44% 94.07% 92.29%
	Recall	88.75% 92.39%	100% 92.11%

Even if the UWV itself is stopped, it is still moving due to the waves on the water.


Bernard Gazier

Günther Schmid

Ralf Lord

Social Democracy in Europe 4.0

In 1983, after a coalition of centre-rights (Kohl) and liberals (Genscher) pushed the social democrats (Brandt, Schmidt) out of government, German-British

politically entwined with the bloc than Britain, which was never a fully committed member. While Brexit was a blow to the EU, France's departure could signify its end."

We believe that Lord Dahrendorf was fundamentally right and yet at the same time wrong: He was right in his vision of putting greater emphasis on individual, local and regional self-determination in the next century 3 but wrong in his assumption that the "social question" had already reached a final solution. On the contrary, the misery of the old social democratic project is not yet having found the proper answer to the "new social question" imposed by the new machine age labelled "industry 4.0". As in the 'old' social democratic project, the answer has to stand on its own two feet: on solid democratic institutions and on reliable social justice. It is democratic institutions that have to be further developed, particularly on the level of the EU, and it is fair risk-sharing and reliable social security that create the basis of (inter-) national cooperation in the globalised and increasingly interdependent knowledge and service economy of the new century.

Let us start with the institutional problem. The EU is suffering from a triple deficit in democracy.

-First, the EU has been mainly built on the rules of markets and open competition, reflected in the four freedoms: free movement of goods, workers, services, and capital. The dominant form of control is not a political one but a legal one, mainly ensured by the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The ECJ, which in a kind of coup d'état in the 1960s postulated the supremacy of European law, fostered the neoliberal agenda of doing away with any market barriers, including national collective agreements ('negative integration'). With a few exceptions, especially related to gender equality, the Court and the European Commission paid little attention to the social consequences of these freedoms in the form of inequalities in wages, income, and -in particular -in capital assets. 'Positive integration', i.e. the development of common social standards, minimum social security and fair income or asset distribution was largely neglected, basically due to the European Parliament's lack of legislative capacities. 4 -Second, the EU does not possess a true budget, neither in size (1 percent of EU GDP) nor in policy direction. Member states contribute proportionally and the EU spends mainly by subsidising agriculture (37 percent of the 2017 budget) and by trying to mitigate regional imbalances (cohesion) or stimulate 'smart' and 'inclusive' growth. The liberalisation of capital flows and financial markets, however, substantially increased the 3 He even took over the classic social democratic ideal of reducing further working time in favour of individual time sovereignty (ibidem: 98/9). 4 F. W. Scharpf (2015), After the Crash: A Perspective on Multilevel European Democracy, in: European Law Journal 21 (3), 384-405.

mobility of capital, leading to regulatory arbitrage (exploiting tax and regulatory differences) and thereby to fiscal competition between the EU member states. This process induced a race to the bottom and austerity programmes instead of accumulating redistributive capacities for public infrastructure, social investments and decent minimum income guarantees.

-Third, the Euro as a common currency lacks the attributes of sovereignty which would enable it to foster a common economic and social space. Despite the efforts of the ECB (with dubious democratic legitimacy and having no mandate regarding unemployment), the Euro has led to diverging trajectories between member states (the South compared to the North) instead of economic convergence. Whereas, for instance, the German real GDP per head increased by 13.3 percent from 2005 to 2014, it dropped by 18.6 percent in Greece. Furthermore, the lack of political control (especially of the banking sector) fostered rent-seeking investments (e.g. in housing and equity bubbles) instead of collectively chosen priorities of EU-wide real investments. Even the most recent silver line on the horizon -a 1.6 percent growth in the Eurozone in 2016 (stronger than in the US) -cannot cover up these cleavages.

The "social Europe" remained weak and optional, leaving each EU member state free to develop its own system, albeit under the steady threat of downward instead of upward social competition. Despite the promise of social convergence, the stylised gloomy facts are:

-First, economic growth -meagre as it was, anyhow -did not translate into a booming job dynamics. Europe is still far away from its own benchmark of 75 percent employment rate set for 2020: From 2005 to 2015, the EU28 employment rate only increased from 67.9 percent to 70.1 percent; in Greece it even declined from 64.4 percent to 54.9 percent. Moreover, this gap also has an unfortunate gender bias: Women remain underrepresented in the labour market as a whole, with an employment rate of 75.9 percent for men compared to 64.3 percent for women. Furthermore, many of the new jobs belong to the category of 'non-standard' employment (temporary or part-time jobs, own account work) with little or no social protection or social security perspectives and a stark overrepresentation of women.5

-Second, for a while, in some EU member states youth unemployment rates surmounted the incredible level of 50 percent and are still at over 40 percent in Greece, Italy and Spain. Even the so-called NEET rates (youth neither in employment nor in education) rocketed, for instance, in Greece to almost 25 percent.

-Third, the rate of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion, after reaching a height of 24.7 percent in 2012, still stands at the level of 2010 (23.7 percent) in 2015. In other words, almost a quarter of people live in a household with a disposable income below 60 percent of the median, or in a household that is materially deprived or with low work intensity. The promise of the EU2020 strategy to reduce poverty in the EU by at least 20 million people (20 percent of about 100 million at risk of poverty or exclusion) has so far been counteracted by the sad fact that this number intermediately increased by about 5 million. Also, income distribution worsened: Whereas in 2005 the upper 20 percent (quintile) of people in the EU28 had a five times higher income than the lower quintile, the relationship increased slightly to 5.2. A special flavour to this measure of social justice provides the fact that this increase of inequalities was particularly pronounced in the richer member states, especially in Germany. Overall -and this might also be seen as a silver lining on the European horizon -inequality between the EU member states tend to decline whereas, so far, inequalities within most of the member states increased.

In this bleak context, does Social Democracy (SD) still stand a chance? We believe it does and, what is more, it is our obligation to withstand Cassandra calls in general (as mentioned at the beginning) and unite against the rising populist and nationalist movements in particular. The ideals of SD have always been to stand up to social exclusion by fighting for citizens' participation, by establishing reliable institutions of fair risk-sharing and solidarity towards the disadvantaged, and by taking over an active stance before globalisation with an emphasis on international cooperation instead of protectionist nationalism. We will and should not give up the project of a European Social Model.

We thereby have also to emphasize that these SD ideals may take different forms of political representation. They can be represented in a political party tradition (e.g. the SPD in Germany), in a socio-political regime (e.g. the Nordic countries), or in a wider philosophy of social justice (e.g. by John Rawls or Amartya Sen). Recalling this tradition, we suggest that SD should put further emphasis on a generalised conception of democracy, extending it beyond citizens and voters to workers, firms and municipalities. The social dialogue should play a central role in the domains of work, pay and social protection through four main channels: information on working conditions and career prospects; negotiation at all levels in the domains of wages, working hours and working conditions; decentral management of social protection institutions especially related to the inclusion of disadvantaged groups; and, last but not least, co-determination within (especially big) enterprises, enabling workers' representatives to control key decisions of the owners, if appropriate even in the form of co-ownership.

As already indicated, new challenges stem in particular from new forms of work, the erosion of traditional types of workers (blue collar in big factories), the rising importance of new types of workers (mainly in services, many of them precarious), and also from new demands: quality of life, gender equality, environmental concerns, protected mobility, fight against discrimination, free choice of careers and family arrangements. Related to this new world of work, traditional social democracy needs a modernisation push, even with regard to the many innovative but still incoherent or too timid initiatives that have been taken up or tried in EU member states in order to give individuals more power regarding their work and career, e.g. personal training accounts, social drawing rights, integration devices for people with disabilities, or employers' pools.

Furthermore, we are at the eve of a new industrial revolution, often termed as 'industry 4.0'. 6 After steam and electricity, the automation revolution has been prominent since the 1980s and we are now observing a disruptive evolution towards connected intelligent machines. Beyond the simple existence of robots, the computerisation of factories happens through networks controlling physical objects, installing a continuous communication between the different tools and integrating work in a new manner. Remote control goes hand in hand with a dialogue between consumers and producers, between logistic and productive settings.

While the consequences of these transformations remain hotly debated, there is no doubt that they represent both a major challenge and a major opportunity for SD in the EU. It is a challenge because this evolution further threatens EU cohesion, with some countries lagging behind while others are eager and able to adapt to the new perspectives; it is an opportunity because there is ample room for initiatives beyond the national member states in favour of social and political innovation and new productive developments.

We are convinced that SD can only survive as a European SD by taking up the following strategies: (1) First, by supporting plans or proposals to establish genuine European fiscal capacities for innovation, fair redistribution and a new environment-friendly production regime;

(2) second, by assisting with the plans of the EU Commission and EU Parliament to enshrine a solid European Pillar of Social Rights into the EU Treaties with an emphasis on minimum income and skill guarantees;

(3) third, by promoting a stronger democracy inside firms, and at local and regional levels; and (4) fourth, by enhancing the cosmopolitan world view of Europe as an actor of global social policy.

(1) Related to establishing genuine EU fiscal capacities, one of the most promising proposals has been developed by Michel Aglietta and Nicolas Leron. 7 At the centre of their proposal is the idea to delegate national competencies regarding energy and environment policies to the EU and to transform the disparate "Juncker plan" into a consistent long-term investment programme aimed at reaching the fiscal capacity of up to 3.5 percent of EU-GDP, whose size and direction would underlie the approval of the European Parliament.

The key argument they develop starts from a pragmatic appraisal of the present situation of the EU. Unsatisfactory and blocked, the EU functioning of today cannot stay as it is.

The integration through the unified market and the competition rules proved to exacerbate the inequalities between and within member states in a context of slow growth, strong influence of transnational finance, and budget austerity. But the two most often discussed radical "solutions" are either unrealistic or destructive. On one hand, the big leap forward: a federal Union with a full-fledged European state. Such an outcome, while probably desirable and logical, is unfeasible given the current objectives of most of the member states and the power balance among the political forces governing the EU. On the other hand, the big leap backward: after "Brexit", other departures and the disintegration of the Union. This would be a complete failure in a world where only major players may have an influence over their own affairs.

But inaction cannot be an option. Preserving and developing the European social and economic model should remain the aim, by implementing a "double democracy". The first democracy would be the practice of revitalised nation state, benefitting again from real fiscal and budgetary rooms for manoeuvre if the constraints stemming from EU austerity are lessened. The second would be the genuine European one, through an enlarged European budget controlled by the European Parliament whose members are directly elected by the citizens of EU member states. This intermediate way between the big forward leap and the big backward leap would indeed be a political leap, but a pragmatic one.

It may prove to be feasible because it would stem from the existing European competencies and implement them on a larger and more systematic scale. The exclusive competencies of the EU would remain a limited -yet revitalised -core. 8 The shared competencies are much more extended 9 and include clearly identified and strategic European public goods. Among them, one may select environment, energy, trans-European networks, research & technology, and regional cohesion.

In each of these domains, separate and weakly coordinated, sometimes incompatible national policies have proven to be inadequate and even perverse in the long term, as can be seen in the energy choices of Germany and France. The main characteristic of public goods is to produce positive externalities through interdependencies which do not appear nor transit by the prices and the market mechanisms. For example, a coherent energy policy may ensure a secure and affordable supply of electricity and a progressive transition towards a carbon-free society. This process may foster a long-term investment process, connected with other green priorities and, through collective infrastructure, with policies of innovation.

Recalling the three main classical functions of the national state budget (Musgrave), this proposal would be restricted to developing the allocation function and leaving untouched the transfer and stabilisation functions. However, beyond the direct positive outcomes, some indirect transfer and stabilisation effects may be expected. And because these new EU investment expenditures would stem from additional fiscal resources, the (national) EU member states may recover more freedom in their fiscal choices.

Concretely, Aglietta and Leron have proposed two new European taxes: a 0.05 percent tax on financial transactions, which may yield 150-200 billion Euros each year, and is double the size of the European budget, reaching 2 percent of the EU-GDP. EU policymakers have been considering this since 2011, but have to date remained inactive. The second possible tax would be a carbon tax, which seems to be fully justified but has encountered fierce resistance from some EU member states and remains blocked. With both taxes, the EU budget may reach 500 billion Euros, i.e. 3.5 percent of the EU-GDP.

This process would reinstall the EU as a last resort investor, lessening the influence of international financial markets and, through public investment banks, preserving a longterm policy aiming at fostering a sustainable growth. Because the collective decisions would be controlled by the EU parliament, this process would achieve an enlarged conception of democracy. While it is indispensable for the simple survival of the Union, it converges with the traditional priorities of SD, and renews them. 9 Internal market, social policy, regional policy, agriculture and fishery, environment, consumer protection, transport and trans-European networks, energy, a common space of freedom, security and justice, public health (partly), research and technological development, space, development of international cooperation and humanitarian aid.

Another key element of this newly created fiscal capacity would be to support the institutionalising elements of a European System of Employment Insurance. The basic idea behind this proposal is that many of the new labour market risks related to the digital revolution go beyond the unemployment for which unemployment insurance (UI) was once established. 10 These new risks stem from increasing uncertainties both on the production side and on the supply side. The old social democratic century was characterised by mass production on the one hand and by the paternalistic one-earner family on the other. The peculiarity of the new social democratic century is individualised quality production or service delivery on the one hand, and the dual-earner family based on partnership between men and women. Extended unemployment insurance should therefore also cover risks related to critical transitions over the life course: transitions between full-time and part-time work, transitions between one occupation and another, transitions between care work and gainful employment, transitions between full work-capacities and partial work-capacities. Many of these transitions can or could be organised within stable employment relationships thereby avoiding the exclusionary tendencies of non-standard employment. However, if it comes to break-downs of this relationship either through external shocks, mismanagement or simply through individual misfortune or changing preferences, a set of income security that is broader than full-time unemployment benefits has to be provided.

This paradigmatic shift requires, first of all, a shift from stocks to flows. In other words, what is needed is a career orientation in labour market and employment policy which strives for making the most critical transitions pay during the life course through securing the related income risks. One promising example is the public support of lifelong learning, especially (but not exclusively) for the low-skilled. The benefit to society would be enhanced mobility, especially in the form of mobility chains that open up new ports of entry for outsiders. Other examples are related to so-called flexible jobs like part-time, own-account work and temporary jobs. Modern insurance theory not only hints at the possible distorting effects of insurance through 'moral hazard' but also at risk-taking promoting effects through 'innovative hazard' that can be a wellspring of economic dynamic and prosperity.

A further reason for the required paradigmatic shift from unemployment to a system of employment insurance is to overcome inequalities and risk aversion through capacity building, for instance, through institutionalised stepping stones (e.g. subsidised employment targeted to individual productivity gaps, or transferable unemployment benefit entitlements over time in case of taking up a more risky self-employment); through enhancing general knowledge, competences and skills over the life course; or through reasonable adjustment of workplaces, in other words: through making the market fit for workers. From this perspective, not only any benefits maintaining or enhancing employability, but also generous unemployment benefits have to be considered as 'active' and not as 'passive' security. In other words, as an investment into the job search capacity of individuals; into the matching capacity of the labour market; into the employability of the 'labour force'; into the quality and productivity of work; and lastly, as an investment into the sovereignty of individuals over their life course.

Following these principles would also imply abandoning the idea of centralised European unemployment insurance, which -anyhow -by its current proponent is basically considered as a mechanism of macroeconomic stabilisation instead of a solid institution of social investment and solidarity. A genuine European fiscal capacity, as mentioned above, could be used to support member states in establishing national employment insurances according to commonly agreed minimum standards and social rights (see next paragraph) but leaving the determination of the specifics (e.g. levels of generosity and ways of effective implementation) to national discretion. This fiscal capacity could also be used, in analogy to the current US unemployment system, to help member states with credits targeted to extended benefits in recessions or large-scale restructuring periods due to globalisation.11

(2) In March 2016, the European Commission induced a European-wide social dialogue regarding the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR). In the meantime, this process led to a resolution adopted by the European Parliament (19 January 2017) urging the European Commission to come up in spring 2017 with a proposal "that is not limited to a declaration of principles or good intentions but reinforces social rights through concrete and specific tools." 12 This document contains already many well-formulated demands or even imperatives for a true social and democratic stance in a digital Europe and emphasizes the need for a paradigmatic shift towards social risk management of lifecourse transitions: "European welfare states need to be updated and strengthened to support upward transitions into and within the labour market and to maintain economic security throughout people's lives; whereas, with the labour market becoming more complex, it is natural that the welfare state also needs to adapt its mechanisms and instruments in order to manage correctly the various social risks arising." Hinting at increasing income uncertainties, the document also underlines the importance of the ILO Recommendation No 202 to provide social protection floors, particularly equal access to a nationally defined set of goods and services, such as health and maternity care, basic income security for children, for persons in active age who are unable to earn sufficient income, and for older persons. Related to the spread of new forms of work and employment, a new definition of the 'employment relationship' is needed to clearly define individuals' or employers' or even consumers' responsibilities for taking care of future social security, e.g. the obligation of the self-employed to contribute in one way or another to social insurance funds, or the inclusion of a social contribution in contract working or in the platform economy. Recognising that more and more workers in non-standard forms of employment have difficulties in exercising their rights at work or gaining access to social security benefits and that women and migrants are disproportionately affected by this problem, the EU Parliament also calls on the Commission and member states to organise social security schemes in such a way as to enable all people in all employment forms, employment relationships, and self-employment to accumulate entitlements providing income security in situations such as unemployment, involuntary part-time work, health problems, older age or career breaks for child-raising, other care or training reasons.

Moreover, the European Parliament resolution on the EPSR accentuates the social right to equal opportunities and equal access to the labour market. One element is to make the market fit for the inclusion of persons with disabilities, for instance, through the right to decent and barrier-free work in a fully inclusive, open and accessible work environment; reasonable workplace adjustment; or to make the market fit for parents with various care obligations through accessible care infrastructure, paid care leaves, and variability in daily and weekly working time.

Another element is the increasing importance of 'industry 4.0'. Point 21 in this document underlines that "low-qualified people not only have diminished employment opportunities, but are also more vulnerable to long-term unemployment and experience greater difficulties in gaining access to services and participating fully in society, a situation which is not only detrimental to the individual but is also highly costly to the economy and society as a whole." The resolution "supports therefore a Skills Guarantee as a new right for everyone, at every stage of life, to acquire fundamental skills for the 21st century, including literacy, numeracy, digital and media literacy, critical thinking, social skills and relevant skills needed for the green and circular economy [...]." In legal terms, such a guarantee should take the form of an enforceable right to continuous vocational training and education. Evidence, provided for instance by the OECD Survey of Adult Skills, shows that there is a strong correlation of ICT literacy scores with participation rates in adult learning, suggesting that policies which foster adult learning will also foster the spread of ICT literacy skills. [START_REF] Martin | Policies to Expand Digital Skills for the Machine Age[END_REF] The document even adopted a central proposal of Transitional Labour Market theory [START_REF]For an early formulation of TLM theory[END_REF] to endow individuals with personal activity accounts as an asset to overcome the increasing income and career uncertainties over the life course through individual efforts. "Starting from their first entry into the labour market, all people in all employment forms, employment relationships and self-employment should have a personal activity account, easily accessible through personal contact and electronic means, duly taking into account the needs of persons with disabilities, where they could consult their accumulated social entitlements and other social rights, including to lifelong learning, and where they could learn about their portability across countries if applicable; such personal activity accounts should be made available in a cost-effective way and adequate data protection should be ensured."

Such personal activity accounts would be a valuable and realistic alternative to the unconditional basic income which is currently the last cry of the day, curiously advocated by employers of high-tech industries and modern financial or distributive services in particular. These neoliberal pundits suggest in the name of freedom, liberty and flexibility a form of social security without any institutional complexity. Their hidden agenda in the remaining empty institutional black box, however, is the dream of freedom from any bureaucracy and painstaking negotiations between competing interests or even getting rid of any collective or public responsibility to the new risks related to the digital revolution.

We argue here, instead, that not only is their productivity leap promise (or better threat) of industry 4.0 far from empirical evidence, but the proper answer to the new world of work are active securities, fair risk-sharing between employees, employers and the state and 'negotiated flexicurity' calling for a higher complexity of institutions corresponding to the increasing variability of employment relationships. The next point makes this need for an extended democracy clearer.

(3) The new SD would exploit the opportunities of deepening democracy at the workplace and close to it. Let us begin with the increasing importance of diverse "territorial social dialogues": processes as well as institutions. [START_REF] Gazier | Tripartisme et dialogue social[END_REF] Two main arguments make clear that the "local" dimension of social dialogue, often pushed aside by the traditional conceptions of industrial relations, has proven to be more and more important and even strategic in a 4.0 world. The first is the necessarily transversal character of most public policies. Facing the problem of unemployment, inequality, or urban congestion, needs coordinated interventions in many different fields, such as transport and housing policies, training and re-training, plant location, internet equipment, etc. In most EU countries these policies are typically implemented by specialised agencies or institutions, most often organised in a vertical manner, and each with its own space of action. The 4.0 evolutions make the challenges even more difficult, with precarious jobs, network functioning and strong mobility and flexibility requirements. It is only at the local level that such policies can be coordinated and implemented in a smooth and reactive manner. The second is an increased need for collective bottom-up initiatives. The spatial polarisation of activities and living areas is a highly visible phenomenon everywhere in Europe and also in other parts of the world. This shakes the traditional solidarity and transfers arrangements and disrupts the existing collective bodies. New productive orientations, new solidarities and new ways of living together may only appear in groups and spaces whose members elaborate projects and create their own policies. Such dialogue should be different from the classical bargaining processes for wages and working time, and should mainly complement it by elaborating and implementing local projects.

However, the role and place of the "territorial social dialogue" may vary considerably among and even within countries. It mainly depends on two elements. The first is the way the national industrial relations system in a given country is organised. In some countries, the closest to the traditional SD orientation, the social dialogue is intense, well-structured, and diversified. It starts from frequent meetings between social partners, more or less centralised negotiations for wages, working hours and working conditions, but also includes the participation of social partners in the management of social security institutions and various degrees of workers involvement in the management of big firms (i.e. "co -determination"). In other countries, the closest to a less regulated and highly decentralised tradition, social dialogue is reduced to less frequent information meetings between social partners and negotiations mainly at the firm or even the plant level. Many countries are in an intermediate position and develop more or less several fields of dialogue. Given this strong diversity of institutions and practices, the "territorial social dialogue" may exist in different versions: it may simply be a local application of the national or branch social dialogue, constituting a complement to it; it may simply be I. Ferreras, A. (eds.), Renewing Democratic Deliberation in Europe: The Challenge of Social and Civil Dialogue, Brussels, Peter Lang, pp. 23-55.

absent, or may sometimes function as a substitute to other missing interactions or even policies.

But a second element is present here: the existence and intensity of different versions of "territorial dialogue", such as local ties and partnerships between employers' unions and training institutions, agreements between a municipality and a union or a non-profit association. The "territorial dialogue" is the breeding ground on which more ambitious "territorial social dialogue" initiatives, involving employees and employers' representatives as well as other local institutions, may develop.

We argue that the new challenges of the Europe 4.0 should foster new answers structuring social partners and actors at a local level. At least five functions may be performed by the "territorial social dialogue". The first is "organising the un-organised". This is the case, on the workers' side, of employees with short-term contracts and temp agency workers, and on the employers' side, of small firms. Such actors badly need collective agreements and collective arrangement regarding working conditions and training opportunities. A second function is to foster development and redevelopment, through anticipation regarding productive mutations, policies attracting new firms, training and workers' mobility policies. Third, working times and spatial mobility, especially in cities, need to be organised. Fourth, there needs to be an allocation of some resources, such as in-kind benefits. And the last is an overarching function, ensuring that the local governance is legitimate and well-accepted by the citizens.

Among the most meaningful initiatives, one may find the long-lasting Swedish experiences about negotiated restructuring: processes including workers with short-term contracts, and opening social dialogue to new productive perspectives; the Italian practices of "second level bargaining", for example in the shoemaking district of Riviera della Brenta, where small firms and unions set agreements on wages, working time and training opportunities; or experiments on securing temp workers in Franche-Comté, creating a longer-term contract which ultimately became the "open-ended temp contract" ("CDI intérimaire") at the national level. Last, in Germany the 2011 Brandenburg tripartite initiative aiming at discussing wages, working conditions and training opportunities, involving employers who do not implement the branch agreements.

The role of the EU in promoting territorial social dialogue should be recalibrated. First of all it should not be confused with the frequent pressures exerted by the Commission towards decentralising the bargaining system and promoting firm-level bargaining in a deregulating orientation. Numerous experiences with territorial social dialogue show that territorial arrangements should not be equated with uncoordinated and atomistic agreements. Second, the EU has a long tradition of territorial intervention, through structural funds like the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF), both strongly focussing on specific territories. Third, the EU promoted "territorial social pacts" during the first decade of this century, aimed at grouping both social and local actors in development projects. What seems to be lacking here is a more pro-active and wider stance. The "structural funds" provide some help for severely depressed areas, which includes basic infrastructures. They should be connected to the investment choices and expenditures previously mentioned in part one, and should provide visible and negotiated help for innovation projects, new skills and new qualifications.

In all the fields where territorial social dialogue is relevant, it should be brought to bear on projects borne by local actors, who should be competent, organised and motivated. A key example here is the implementation of social drawing rights, such as a training personal account which directly depends on the way real opportunities exist or not at a local level. Overall, the priority here again is social and economic integration. Left to themselves, the market interactions, even combined with formal social and economic rights, are likely to produce inequalities and exclusion, and will serve to reinforce the success of already advantaged groups while ignoring or even rejecting the less advantaged ones. It is at the local level that a really integrative policy, based upon projects and initiatives from the local citizens, may be elaborated and implemented. We have already observed that such "territorial social dialogue" may take different forms, involving different actors. But two elements are of central importance and are typical of a renewed democracy: the bottom-up dimension, and the intensive use of the ICT and of decentralised networks.

Let us now consider the democratic challenges and opportunities at the firm or at the plant level. One may first think that the German or Nordic style "codetermination" should be extended. It would indeed be a direct major achievement, but not easy to promote in a context of union erosion and of volatile transnational networking practices by big firms. The recent French attempt (2014) limited itself to the homeopathic introduction of a few union representatives to the management boards of major firms. Abundant empirical evidence, however, shows that a good quality social dialogue inside firms correlates to the good economic performances of these firms, suggesting the key role of the active participation of a motivated, protected and adaptable workforce. 16 While difficult, codetermination will remain the best way forward.

However, democracy at the workplace and around it may be promoted more indirectly, for example, by organising SMEs in local networks which may conclude agreements on fringe benefits and additional social protection. Such practices can be a prominent component of an improving job quality process. In this field, the Laeken indicators, set up by the EU in 2000, remain a useful reference point and should be taken seriously. 17 Many empirical works have shown that, according to such indicators, high quality jobs go hand in hand with good economic and social performances. We argue that the new SD should exploit these opportunities, notably with firms that are able and willing to develop a "corporate social responsibility". Of course, here again some neoliberal actors would prefer to stay inactive or deregulate even more labour markets and labour relations. The outcome may be short-term flexibility, but it would be accompanied by increases in inequality and exclusion and long-term inefficiency. The new SD should promote longterm capacities for adaptation and innovation, and this can only be done by developing a renewed social dialogue, grounded on well-accepted indicators, especially at the territorial and local levels.

4) Extending and deepening democracy is also necessarily related to the problem of refugees and migration to counteract the potential threat of downward social competition. Lack of imagination and visible good practices have so far led to many EU member states even refusing to integrate any refugees under the argument that immigrants, or those seeking asylum, would undermine the social peace in their own country. This is a shame for the SD idea which was once proud of its cosmopolitan attitudes and international solidarity. A revitalisation of this original idea (if not a habitual reflex of social democratic thinking) would have to start on two fronts: the front of social inclusion and that of fighting against the causes of economic migration and political escape. This is not the place to dig deep into this crucial but complex issue. Here, we only emphasize two points which would be a natural path for social democracy in a Europe 4.0: First, the utilisation of digital technology to develop easily accessible platforms and networks of matching decentral demands for skilled as well as unskilled workers with a foreign or refugee background, possibly in the framework of EURES. 18 European cities and municipalities could thereby play a central role. Cities or municipalities as extended neighbourhoods and guardians of an effective public infrastructure (child care, schools, social assistance, transport systems, etc.) are central for social integration; and most of these local communities also have excellent knowledge of the new potentials for growth 17 Let us recall that the Laeken indicators are around 20, and are organised in four groups: the quality of the job itself (earnings and security), the quality of the career (training and promotion opportunities), the quality of the connection with family life (compatibility of times, parental leaves), and the quality of work itself (control over work intensity, individual and collective expression opportunities). 18 EURES = EURopean Employment Service; the European Job Mobility Portal already exists but needs to improve essentially its individual accessibility; https://ec.europa.eu/eures/euressearchengine/page/main#/simpleSearch. and job creation. All they need is a European mandate to fulfil this function and the necessary resources for an inclusive policy for refugees. They should have the right to apply for such resources at the European level, provided they regard the respective national regulations. A corresponding proposal has recently been formulated in an initiative by the prominent German and Portuguese social democrats, Gesine Schwan and Maria João Rodrigues. In the same vein "Solidarity Cities" have to be mentioned, as an initiative on the management of the refugee crisis launched by the city of Athens under the framework of the EUROCITIES network. 19 On the front of fighting the causes of economically and politically induced migration, Europe has to drastically reform its official aid policy towards Africa. According to the World Bank, $835 billion have been spent in official foreign aid in the period of 1960 to 2014, with no, little or even disastrous effects for the development of Africa. It is not enough to call for a 'Marshall plan' for Africa, as the German government recently announced. This plan (1948-1952) was only effective because the human (skills), infrastructural (transport) and the institutional capacities (rule of law) for economic development already existed. Many of these requirements are missing or are still underdeveloped in Africa. Moreover, employers who invested under the original Marshall plan, could be sure of fair trade conditions, whereas African employers often have to fight against subsidised foreign products or services, in particular against subsidised European agricultural products. As long as such capacities and fair trade conditions are not guaranteed, the chances of preventing economically-induced migration look bleak. Furthermore, a social and democratic Europe has to come up with a joint migration policy to ensure such conditions and to provide a transparent and regulated way for legitimate migration flows in both directions (return migration). 20 A final note is necessary regarding the possible realisation of such a scenario for a European SD. We only partially concur with Fritz W. Scharpf whom we previously quoted and who is extremely critical related to the possibility of such reforms without changing beforehand the constitution of the EU. We agree that in the long run such a change is necessary but unlikely and probably needs even more pressure stemming from an even deeper economic or political crisis in Europe.

However, under the current constitutional conditions, we still see room for manoeuvre to get ahead with the reforms mentioned above. Even if it is true that the European social dimension is not yet deeply anchored in the European treaties, it is more existent there than is often maintained. Article 9 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European (TFEU), in particular, deserves to be mentioned because it contains a 'horizontal social clause' imposing the EU to take into account "requirements linked to the promotion of a high level of employment, the guarantee of adequate social protection, the fight against social exclusion, and a high level of education, training and protection of human health" when defining or implementing its policies. Furthermore, the establishment of a European Pillar of Social Rights, currently foreseen only for the EURO member states, could be based on the possibility of using the enhanced cooperation mechanism under Article 20 of the TEU. Finally, Article 153 (1)(c) in combination with (2)(b) TFEU allows -related to social security and the social protection of workers -for the adoption of directives, in particular related to working conditions. Because, for instance, paid educational leave or personal activity accounts could be considered as a 'working condition', it would be possible for developing -for instance -European directives related to the abovementioned skills guarantee or personal activity accounts.

See, for instance, G. Schmid (2016), Flexible and Secure Labour Market Transitions: Towards Institutional Capacity Building in the Digital Economy, Bonn 2016, IZA Policy Paper No. 116, http://ftp.iza.org/pp116.pdf

The term originated in 2011 in the German context but migrated elsewhere e.g. France and the USA. According to the EU Commission (Employment and Social Development Report 2016, p. 148), "ICT development and digitalisation may be generating an economic transformation that will affect all industries on a scale comparable to the impact of the steam engine during the first industrial revolution. For this reason, it has been called the Fourth Industrial Revolution."

M. Aglietta and N. Leron (2017), La double démocratie -Une Europe politique pour la croissance, Editions du Seuil.

Customs union, competition rules for the internal market, conservation of biological resources in the seas, common international trade policy.

For the development of this argument see G. Schmid (2015), Sharing Risks of Labour Market Transitions: Towards a System of Employment Insurance, in: British Journal of Industrial Relations, 53 (1), 2015, 70-93, http://www.guentherschmid.eu/pdf/Sharing_Risks_BJIR-2015.pdf

A model for European system of employment insurance has been developed in G. Schmid (2014), Inclusive Growth: What Future for the European Social Model?, Bonn 2014, IZA Policy Paper No. 82, http://ftp.iza.org/pp82.pdf

European Parliament (2017), A European Pillar of Social Rights, Text adopted 19 January 2017 [P8_TA(2017)0010]; http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+TA+P8-TA-2017-0010+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN; download 03/03/2017.

See, for example, a 2016 report to the EU Parliamentary assembly: Jonasson Ögmundur, "Reinforcing social dialogue as an instrument for stability and decreasing social and economic inequalities" 13.12.2016, Doc 14216.

See http://solidaritycities.eu/.

For an extended overview of the current situation and EU's current role in refugee policy and politics see chapter 3 of the EU Commission report on Employment and Social Development 2016 (pp. 109-147).