Peter J Matthews

E M G Agoo

D N Tandang

D A Madulid

Matthew Spriggs

Stephen B Acabado
email: stephen.acabado@gmail.com

G Maribel

Roger M Blench
email: rogerblench@yahoo.co.uk

Robert Bollt

Professor

R Bourke

Michael

Sophie Caillon
email: sophie.caillon@cefe.cnrs.fr

Jean-Michel Chazine
email: jmchazine@mailcity.com

Jee Chu

Yan

Ethnobotany and Ecology of Wild Taro (Colocasia esculenta) in the Philippines: Implications for Domestication and Dispersal

Roger Blench

Figure 1 Origin of the name of Vigan.

Figure 2 Taro at the edge of rice terraces, Mayoyao, Luzon.

Figure 3 Suggested centers of origin for the lexical roots (#traw, *biRaq, *mV) V V of the most common names for 'taro' (Colocasia esculenta) in the Indo-Pacific region. Table 1 Online lexical resources for Asia-Pacifi c languages. Table 2 Language phyla in the Indo-Pacifi c Region. Table 3 Common Indo-Pacifi c roots for 'taro'. Table 4 Refl exes of #trawʔ 'taro' in SE Asian languages. Table 5 'Taro' in Formosan languages. Table 6 Oceanic names for 'taro'. Table 7 The *biRaq root for 'aroid' in SE Asian language phyla. Table 8 Refl exes of the root #poŋ in SE Asian language phyla. Table 9 Miscellaneous terms for 'taro' in SE Asian language phyla. Table 10 Taro in Austronesian languages of Island SE Asia. Table 11 Terms for 'taro' and 'paddy' in some branches of Austroasiatic. Table 12 Dravidian names for taro.

Shengzheng Huang

Figure 1 Image of a rich agricultural landscape from a Later-Han (AD25-220) tomb.

Part II EASTERN PACIFIC Robert Bollt

Figure 1 Location of the Austral Islands in eastern Polynesia.

Figure 2 Rurutu Island, with nine main districts identifi ed. Figure 3 Tubuai Island, with three villages identifi ed. Figure 4 Rapa Island, with main bays identifi ed.

Jean-Michel Chazine

Figure 1 Schematic Sketch of cultivation pit on a low island.

Figure 2 View of a large area of cultivation pits on Tatakoto, Tuamotu.

Timothy Earle

Figure 1 Extensive taro pondfi elds at Waimea, Kauai Island, Hawaii'i, with dry hills above.

Mark D. McCoy and Michael W. Graves

Figure 1 Zones of agricultural production, Northeastern Hawaiʻi Island.

Figure 2 Ages of geologic substrates in Eastern Gulches study area.

Figure 3 Known irrigated fi eld complexes in Halawa Gulch. Figure 4 Irrigated Terrace Complex (HLW-3A to -3I), Upper West Halawa Gulch.

Figure 5 Barrage-Styled Pondfi elds (HLW-13), Upper East Halawa Gulch.

Figure 6 Examples of Barrage-Styled Pondfi elds (HLW-13) and associated features, Upper East Halawa Gulch. Figure 7 Irrigated Terrace Complex (HLW-11A to 11O), Lower West Halawa Gulch. Figure 8 Irrigated Terrace Complex (HLW-31A to -31H), Lower Halawa Gulch. Figure 9 East Bank Irrigated Terrace Complex HLW-29A to -29J, Lower Halawa Gulch. Figure 10 West Bank Irrigated Terrace Complex HLW-29K to -29M, Lower Halawa Gulch. Figure 11 Average size of fi eld plots (defi ned by bunds) in relation to the total area of each fi eld recorded (defi ned as a single irrigation unit), in a large valley (Anahulu) and a small valley (Halawa). Table 1 Grade of slope for Eastern Gulches. Figure 6 Example of an excavated terrace wall with foundation stones exposed. Figure 7 Possible construction sequence for the Keiu lo'i complex. Figure 8 Possible construction sequence for the Ku'ele lo'i complex. Figure 9 Possible construction sequence for the Kukuinui Mauka lo'i complex.

Table 1 Radiocarbon laboratory results, Arizona AMS laboratory and Beta Analytic. Table 2 Other temporal indicators.

xiii Trevor King

Figure 1 Graph showing changes in cattle population in Nadroga-Navosa during the 20th century. Table 1 Reported reasons for vuci (wet dalo garden) decline and cessation in Fiji. Table 2 Proximate versus distal causes of decline and cessation.

Part III WESTERN PACIFIC Christophe Sand

Figure 1 Location of New Caledonia within Island Melanesia.

Figure 2 Example of extensive taro terracing on the hills of Col des Roussettes (Central Grande Terre). Figure 3 The dense horticultural layout of banks and ditches on the west coastal fl at of Yandé Island (off Northern Grande Terre). Figure 4 Aerial view of the Tiwaka river plain, highlighting the succession of ditches dug for water circulation and the different areas of habitation. Figure 5 Map of the Kadèn site (ETO045) in the central part of Grande Terre (Bopope), combining housing, long dryland cultivation mounds and wet taro terraces watered by a source. Figure 6 Example of high stone-faced walls for taro terracing in the upper part of the Werap valley (Hienghène). Figure 7 Partial view of the extent of terracing around the upper part of Col des Roussettes (Bourail). Figure 8 Map of part of the pondfi eld wet taro system of Mont Koghi in Dumbea,

showing the general layout of terraces that can still be identifi ed today, after over 100 years of abandonment. Figure 9 Example of the link between peridotite mountains and extensive taro terracing in Bourail. Table 1 Radiocarbon dates ( 14 C) for taro terrace layers in New Caledonia.

Sophie Caillon

Figure 1 The taro water-garden named Rotluō, cultivated by the inhabitants of Vētuboso, Vanua Lava. Figure 2 West coast of Vanua Lava island, Vanuatu, with main villages and main rivers. Figure 3 Eli Field Malau from Vētuboso village is repairing a water channel. Figure 4 Freda Malau from Vētuboso village is weeding her pondfi eld or qēl while the ground is dry. l Table 1 Time sequence for growing taro in qēl. Table 2 Change in the area of taro water-gardens between 1986 and 2002. Table 3 Quantitative data describing taro water-garden production in Vētuboso.

xiv Annie Walter and Fabienne Tzerikiantz

Figure 1 Locations on the island of Santo, Vanuatu. Figure 2 A woman from Elia cleaning taro near a taro pondfi eld that has been rehabilitated by the present generation. Figure 3 The pondfi elds are supported by earthen walls on which food plants and fruit tree seedlings are also grown. Figure 4 Taro in a pondfi eld at Sevu. Figure 5 A view of Elia village on the coast below Sevu.

Tim Bayliss-Smith and Edvard Hviding

Figure 1 The western Solomon Islands, showing islands and localities mentioned in the text. Figure 2 Remains of a large-scale ruta system of old Kusaghe, located at Kapoara in the valley of river Mase, north New Georgia. Figure 3 Remains of a large-scale ruta system of old Kusaghe, located at Lilosana along the Sengga river, a tributary of the Mase, north New Georgia. Figure 4 Remains of a small-scale ruta system of old Ulusaghe, located at Vao on Gatokae island. Figure 5 Languages of the New Georgia group, western Solomon Islands.

R. Michael Bourke

Figure 1 Distribution of the most important food crops in Papua New Guinea. Figure 2 Estimated contribution to food energy of staple food crops at six different periods, 1660 to 2000 AD. Table 1 Rural population growing staple food crops in 2000. Table 2 Estimated production of 18 staple food crops in Papua New Guinea in 2000.

Part IV SOUTHEAST ASIA Nuno Vasco Oliveira

Figure 1 Location of BCUM in the Bauccau area.

Figure 2 Entrance to BCUM rockshelter, Baucau. Figure 3 A view from inside BCUM rockshelter. Figure 4 Plan of BCUM showing location of the main excavation areas (2004 and 2005). Figure 5 2x2 metre grid and detail of the 2005 excavations at BCUM. Figure 6 Adding water to sediment samples during fl otation. Figure 7 Pouring sediment samples through fi ne chiffon during fl otation. Figure 8 Wet-sieving heavy fraction samples. Figure 9 Drying light fraction samples (the fl ot). Figure 12 Modern specimen of Dioscorea alata (100x, radial/longitudinal). Figure 13 Modern specimen of Dioscorea alata (100x, radial/longitudinal section). Figure 14 Modern specimen of Dioscorea esculenta (100x, transversal section). Figure 15 Modem specimen of Colocasia esculenta (l00x, radial/longitudinal section). Figure 16 Modern specimen of Colocasia esculenta (150x, transversal section). Figure 17 Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 1(45x). Figure 18 Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 1 (100x). Figure 19 Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 2 (150x). Figure 20 Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 2 (300x). Figure 21 Prob. Colocasia esculenta from Telupunu (120x). Figure 22 Prob. Colocasia esculenta from Telupunu (150x). of the Bocos terrace system. Table 1 Dates previously obtained from the vicinity of Banaue Table 2 Radiocarbon dates obtained from Burnay district Table 3 TL dates from Kiyyangan village and Bintacan Cave Table 4 Agricultural districts and sites tested during the 2007 fi eld season Table 5 Radiocarbon determinations from the 2007 fi eld season Table 6 Probability of post-Spanish construction of Bocos rice terrace walls Table 7 Peralta's (1982) estimations of I'wak household production of taro and sweet potato Table 8 Calculations for cultivating wet and dry taro and amount of time needed to feed a household member Vanuatu,[192][193][203][204]William Halse Rivers,[7][8][9][10][11][220][221][222]241 Rosendahl,Paul, [223][224][229][230][231][233][234][235]236 linguistic evidence,[236][237][238][242][243][244][244][245][246][247]236 population dynamics,[224][225][228][229][246][247][231][232]235,[238][239][240][241][242][243][244][222][223][224][225][226]231,233,237 warfare,225,228,235,[242][243][244]B.T.,[226][227][228]Felix,6 spread. See dispersal Spriggs, Matthew, 1, 341 staple food crops, 343. See also food supply; specifi c crop Austral Islands,55,[58][59][60]74 Fiji,155,159 Papua New Guinea,[255][256][257][258][259][260]308,[334][335][222][223][224][225][226]231,233,[273][274][275][276]209,211, ,[194][195][9][10]202,[210][211][212]215 sociopolitical structure,[202][203][204][205]209,211,216 sustainable agriculture,[199][200]216 taro abandonment in,7,189,201,212,[215][216][189][190][191][204][205][209][210][211][212][213][214][215][216][189][190][191][192][193][194][195][196][197][198][199][200][201][202][203][204][205] #biRaq, 28-29 common roots, 24 #ma, 27-28 #po # ŋ, 29-30 #trawʔ/# ʔ ʔ tales, 24-27 regional Burma,27,30 China,27,[31][32][45][46][47][48]30,[34][35]30 Papua New Guinea,[27][28][25][26][27]30,[35][36][308][309][315][316][317][318][319][320][321][322][323][324][236][237][238][30][31][32][33][26][27][28][29]274 Vanuatu,209 Vietnam,30 Vietnam,30 Viti Levu (Fiji) ,315,318,325,329,333,335 Vanuatu,200,202,209,210,216 Y yams Austral Islands,55,58 Fiji,155 New Caledonia,176,184,189 Papua New Guinea,[255][256][257][258][259]297,[308][309][310]334 before rice,297,343 Solomon Islands,220,222,[225][226]231,233,[237][238][239][273][274][275][276][192][193]209,211,216 vernacular names for,[29][30]Doug,12,170,[221][222][224][225] Yu Jing (The Book of Taro), 45-51

Stephen B. Acabado

  . H. R. Rivers' map of the distribution of taro and associated irrigation works (from Rivers 1926).

Figure 3 Figure 4

 34 Figure 4 Variation in pit shapes, and location of taro pits patches on Takapoto atoll, Tuamotu.

Figure 10 Figure 11

 1011 Figure11Collecting modern plant specimens from around BCUM. Figure12Modern specimen of Dioscorea alata (100x, radial/longitudinal). Figure13Modern specimen of Dioscorea alata (100x, radial/longitudinal section). Figure14Modern specimen of Dioscorea esculenta (100x, transversal section). Figure15Modem specimen of Colocasia esculenta (l00x, radial/longitudinal section). Figure16Modern specimen of Colocasia esculenta (150x, transversal section). Figure17Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 1(45x). Figure18Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 1 (100x). Figure19Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 2 (150x). Figure20Prob. Dioscorea sp. from BCUM-sample 2 (300x). Figure21Prob. Colocasia esculenta from Telupunu (120x). Figure22Prob. Colocasia esculenta from Telupunu (150x).

Figure 1

 1 Left: Map of the Philippines with the province of Ifugao shaded. Right: taro (Colocasia esculenta) on a terrace, vic. Banaue, Ifugao Figure 2 Maher's excavation profi le for Ifl (1973).

Figure 3

 3 Map showing present-day terraces and sites excavated at Bocos village, Banaue, in 2007 Figure 4 Typical basal profi le (vertical section) of an excavated terrace wall Figure 5 Probability densities of terrace wall construction

Figure 1

 1 Upper: fresh corms with leaves, from cultivation, Banaue town market, Ifugao. Lower: Dried entire leaves (blades and petioles) hanging upside down, in street market, Manila city. Figure2Survey areas in the Philippine archipelago.

Figure 3

 3 Area surveyed in the vicinity of Mt Banahaw, in Luzon.

Figure 4 Figure 6

 46 Figure6Wild taro on stream bank at edge of a coconut plantation, near Kidapawan, Mt Apo, Mindanao. Figure7Wild taro growing in mud next to a seepage spring, above the Malbour River, Mt Apo, Mindanao. Figure8Two popular dishes in which taro leaves are cooked with coconut milk and other ingredients. Upper: pinangat. Lower: laing. Figure9Insects associated with wild taro in Luzon and Mindanao. Table1Wild and semi-wild (planted without cultivation) taro with edible leaves, collected in vicinity of Mt Banahaw, Luzon Island, Philippines.

Table 2 Estimate

 2

of yield, population supported, and labour required for Halawa Gulch fi elds.

Windy K. McElroy

Figure 1 Map of the Hawaiian Islands with inset of Moloka'i Island. Figure•2 Example of Hawaiian irrigated agricultural complex, or lo'i system.

Figure 3 Wailau Valley, showing the 19 lo'i complexes and their names.

Figure 4 Calibrated radiocarbon dates for Wailau Valley.

Figure 5 Radiocarbon age determination for Wailau agricultural systems.

Table 1

 1 Wild and semi-wild (planted without cultivation) taro with edible leaves, collected in vicinity of Mt Banahaw, Luzon Island, Philippines.

	CONCLUSION
	Matthew Spriggs and Peter J. Matthews
	Figure 1 Wild taro on a fl ooded stream bank in northeastern Queensland,
	Australia.

Recovering, Analysing and Identifying Colocasia esculenta and Dioscorea spp. from Archaeological Contexts in Timor-Leste Taro Before Rice Terraces Ethnobotany and Ecology of Wild Taro (Colocasia esculenta) in the Philippines CONCLUSION Irrigated Taro in the Indo-Pacifi c

  names for taro, 209 Western Santo, 209-216 vernacular names, 21-37. See also specifi c term irrigation techniques, 35-36 language phyla, 23 lexical resources, 23 paddy rice, switch to, 30-34 patterns of, 24-30, 37

 Guinea,11,310 Philippines,[296][297][298][308][309][310][329][330][331][332][333][334][335][336][273][274][21][22][36][37](See also vernacular names)


Guillaume Vitte

Fabien Ferchaud

Florent Chlebowski

Bruno Mary

Early detection of temporal Soil Organic Carbon stock changes by accounting for spatial variability

Introduction

• The 4 per 1000 initiative (COP 21, 2015)  Use diachronic rather than synchronic measurements to take into account initial heterogeneity between plots and to calculate change rates (e.g. Costa Junior et al., 2013;Olson et al., 2014) • SOC spatial heterogeneity .5 5678910101112131415161718192020212223242526272829303132333435353637383940

Soil sampling

  aims at increasing Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) stocks • Accurate assessment of SOC stocks and change rates • Requires (e.g. Meurer et al., 2018):  Determination bulk density  Sampling to maximum tillage depth • To improve this method:

•

  Objective  To improve the diachronic method in order to detect early effects of treatments on SOC stocks • Means  To take into account the intra-plot spatial variability by:  sampling soil at the same locations than at time 0  calculating temporal changes in SOC stocks in each location • To test this new method, our approach was to:  Analyze initial spatial variability of SOC stocks  Evaluate the relationship between SOC stocks at time 0 and time t  Compare standard deviation between stocks and stock changes • This method was applied to ongoing long-term experiment

•••••

  : 0-5;5-10; 10-15; 15-20; 20-25; 25-30; 30-35; 35-40; 40-60 cm • 2009 (initial date):  9 per block  No significant differences between blocks • 2015:  4 points per plot (same as for soil sampling)  Significant differences between treatments 𝜌 𝑖 • 𝐶 𝑖 e i = layer thickness (mm) ρ i = bulk density (g/cm 3 ) Spatial variability well structured, consistent with published results • More differences than expected from 41 to 64 t C/ha: > 20 t C/ha point, SOC stock in 2015 depends on SOC stock in 2009  Confirms the well structured spatial variability shown with the variogram For all treatments: Standard deviation in SOC stocks in 2009 and 2015 • Lower standard deviation for DSOC than for SOC 2009 and SOC 2015 Using stock changes allow to detect smaller effects than using stocks .Increase in SOC stocks ~0-10 cm for RT but not in ~0-35 or ~0-60 cm • Decrease in SOC stocks ~0-35 and ~0-60 cm for RT-RR and RN Possible to decrease the variability of temporal changes in SOC stocks by:  characterizing the initial spatial variability and  re-sampling very close to the initial point (~ 1 m) • This method allows to detect:  smaller changes than with random sampling (~ 2 t C/ha) and  treatment effects after only 6 years • It is particularly relevant for deep sampling .15 Conclusion about the effects of treatment • In our ACBB experiment, temporal changes in SOC stocks:  were not influenced by tillage (RT vs CONV)  were driven by the amount of C inputs (RT-RR vs RT)  were probably driven by the lack of N when N surplus is negative (RN vs CONV)

Acknowledgments for the financial support from:

Thank you for your attention

Contact : guillaume.vitte@inra.fr Thanks to my co-autors and to the staff of AgroImpact Unit for their technical assistance


Paul Jacques Zufferey
email: paul.zufferey@chu-st-etienne.fr

Annabelle Dupont

Julien Lanoiselée

Anne Bauters

Julien Poissy

Julien Goutay

Laurent Jean

Morgan Caplan

Lionel Levy

Sophie Susen

Julien Lanoiselee

Xavier Delavenne

Dr Jacques Paul

Zufferey

Pharmacokinetics of enoxaparin in COVID-19 critically ill patients

Keywords: enoxaparin, COVID-19, pharmacokinetics, Critical Care

à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Take-home message: Despite low-molecular weight thromboprophylaxis, ICU COVID-19 patients are at high risk of venous thrombosis. This pharmacokinetic study indicates that exposure to enoxaparin in this special population is decreased. Randomized trials are required to evaluate the benefit of an increase dosage of enoxaparin.

Tweet: a pharmacokinetic study indicates that exposure to enoxaparin is decreased in ICU COVID-19 patients.

INTRODUCTION

Patients with COVID-19 are at a high risk of venous thromboembolism despite the use of thromboprophylaxis. [START_REF] Nopp | Risk of venous thromboembolism in patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis[END_REF] The rates of thrombotic complications have been found to be higher in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) compared to ICU non-COVID-19 patients and to non-ICU hospitalized COVID-19 patients. [START_REF] Helms | High risk of thrombosis in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection: a multicenter prospective cohort study[END_REF] Only few data are available supporting thromboprophylaxis regimen in ICU and guidelines highlight the need for future studies. [START_REF] Schünemann | American Society of Hematology 2018 guidelines for management of venous thromboembolism: prophylaxis for hospitalized and nonhospitalized medical patients[END_REF] Furthermore in overweight and obese patients weight-adapted guidelines are also lacking. In this context, a number of European guidelines have suggested for COVID-19 ICU-patients to increase the usual recommended dose for thromboprophylaxis in ICU (e.g. enoxaparin 40 mg once-daily) [START_REF] Duranteau | European guidelines on perioperative venous thromboembolism prophylaxis: Intensive care[END_REF] with intermediate-dose low-molecular-weight heparin (e.g. enoxaparin 0.5 mg/kg twice-daily or enoxaparin 40 mg twice-daily). [START_REF] Susen | Prevention of thrombotic risk in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and hemostasis monitoring[END_REF] [6] [START_REF] Spyropoulos | Scientific and Standardization Committee Communication: Clinical Guidance on the Diagnosis, Prevention and Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19[END_REF] [START_REF]Prevention, detection and management of VTE in patients with COVID-19[END_REF] On the contrary, the American College of Chest Physicians and the American Society of Hematology Guidelines Panel have recommended to maintain their prophylactic dose anticoagulation recommendation for ICU patients (e.g. enoxaparin 30 mg twice-daily) because of the potential concern of a higher odds of major bleeding with intermediate or therapeutic dose anticoagulation. [START_REF] Moores | Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of VTE in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report[END_REF] [START_REF]ASH Guidelines on Use of Anticoagulation in Patients with COVID-19 -Hematology[END_REF] In ICU-patients, pathophysiological changes impact on pharmacokinetics of mainly hydrophilic drugs such as low-molecular-weight heparins and often lead to underdosing. [START_REF] Blot | The effect of pathophysiology on pharmacokinetics in the critically ill patient -Concepts appraised by the example of antimicrobial agents[END_REF] After low-molecular-weight heparin administration, ICU-patients show lower anti-Xa activities compared with medical ward patients. [START_REF] Dörffler-Melly | Bioavailability of subcutaneous low-molecular-weight heparin to patients on vasopressors[END_REF] [13] Similar findings have recently been found in COVID-19 patients. [START_REF] Dutt | Thromboprophylaxis in COVID-19: Anti-FXa-the Missing Factor?[END_REF]. These data suggest that previous population pharmacokinetic analysis of enoxaparin in non-ICU patients would predict inaccurate anti-Xa activities in COVID-19 ICU-patients. [START_REF] Duffull | What do we learn from repeated population analyses?[END_REF] The aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of enoxaparin in COVID-19 ICU-patients to predict the time-exposure profiles of various thromboprophylactic regimens in COVID-19 ICU-patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Study overview

This

Data collection

Data were extracted from electronic medical records trial with respect to the characteristics of the trial participants at ICU admission (age, weight, height, gender, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, [START_REF] Vincent | The SOFA (Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment) score to describe organ dysfunction/failure. On behalf of the Working Group on Sepsis-Related Problems of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine[END_REF] World Health Organization Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement (OSCI), [START_REF]COVID-19 Therapeutic Trial Synopsis[END_REF] renal function estimated by the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation [START_REF] Levey | A New Equation to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate[END_REF] and the Cockcroft and Gault formula [START_REF] Cockcroft | Prediction of creatinine clearance from serum creatinine[END_REF] , D-Dimer and fibrinogen) and to enoxaparin anti-Xa activities. As low molecular weight heparin plasma concentration cannot easily be measured, anti-Xa activity was considered as a surrogate for enoxaparin concentration. Blood samples were collected routinely throughout treatment. Venous blood was collected in sodium-citrated tubes (0.109 M). After centrifugation (15 min, 2500 g), plasma was stored at -80 °C. Anti-Xa levels were measured in plasma using a chromogenic anti-Xa activity (STA-Liquid Anti-Xa, Diagnostica Stago, Biophen Heparin LRT, HYPHEN BioMed) on STA-R system (Diagnostica Stago). Intra and inter assay coefficient of variation was 3.1% and 6%, respectively. The lower limit of quantification of the assay was 0.05 IU.mL -1 , and linearity was demonstrated over the range of 0.05-1.75 IU.mL -1 . We also extracted outcomes related to enoxaparin administration: Venous thromboembolic events occurring during hospitalisation (pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis or catheter related thrombosis) which had to be objectively confirmed and major bleedings occurring during low-molecular-weight thromboprophylaxis through 72 hours after the last dose was administered. [START_REF] Schulman | Subcommittee on Control of Anticoagulation of the Scientific and Standardization Committee of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (2005) Definition of major bleeding in clinical investigations of antihemostatic medicinal products in non-surgical patients[END_REF]

Population Pharmacokinetic analysis

Enoxaparin anti-Xa activities values were analysed using the following nonlinear mixedeffect model framework:

Where

is the observed anti-Xa activity for patient i, at time j. The functions correspond to the anti-Xa activity returned by the models for patient i, at time j with the individual parameters . Parameters and are the constant and proportional parts of the error model with .

Data were analysed using MONOLIX, a non-linear mixed effects modelling software (MonolixSuite 2020) using the SAEM algorithm. [START_REF] Delyon | Convergence of a stochastic approximation version of the EM algorithm[END_REF] The parameters of the model were assumed to be log-normally distributed. Data below the lower limit of quantification were simulated in a right-truncated Gaussian distribution using the SAEM algorithm. [START_REF] Samson | Extension of the SAEM algorithm to leftcensored data in nonlinear mixed-effects model: Application to HIV dynamics model[END_REF] The model was built using a stepwise procedure, initially identifying the best structural model and then the effect of covariates on enoxaparin exposure were evaluated. The covariates tested were total body weight, lean body weight, [START_REF] Janmahasatian | Quantification of lean bodyweight[END_REF]

Simulations

From the variance-covariance matrix of the estimated pharmacokinetic parameters of the final pharmacokinetic model, Monte Carlo simulations were performed using Simulx software (MonolixSuite 2020). A total of 200 individuals were generated using the patient's characteristics of the study.

The time-exposure profiles for the following enoxaparin regimen were simulated for 3 days: enoxaparin 40 mg once-daily (qd), enoxaparin 30 mg twice-daily (bid), enoxaparin 40 mg bid, enoxaparin 0.5 mg.kg-1 bid and enoxaparin 1 mg.kg-1 bid.

To compare enoxaparin exposure in COVID-19 ICU patients with non COVID-19 non-ICU patients, the pharmacokinetic model developed by Berges et al. [START_REF] Berges | Anti-factor Xa activity of enoxaparin administered at prophylactic dosage to patients over 75 years old[END_REF] was used to simulate anti-Xa activities in medical patients receiving enoxaparin 40 mg qd for 3 days.

Individual predicted enoxaparin exposure markers at steady state, after three days of administration, were calculated for each dosage regimen. These markers comprised the 24hour area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC d3 ) and the maximum plasma concentration (Cmax d3 ).

RESULTS

Patients

From February to April 2020, 95 confirmed COVID-

Data sampled

A total of 391 anti-Xa samples were measured for the 95 patients analysed. The number of measurements per patient ranged from 1 to 13. A total of 24 anti-Xa (6.1%) were below the limit of quantification.

Population PK analysis

A one-compartment model with first-order absorption best described the pharmacokinetics of enoxaparin in ICU COVID-19 patients. The model was parameterized in terms of apparent clearance (Cl), apparent volume of distribution (V) and absorption rate constant (Ka).

Intersubject variabilities were estimated for Cl and V. A proportional error model provided the best results for residual variability. Among the covariates, actual body weight was found to have a statistically significant effect on V. It also appeared that enoxaparin clearance was significantly related to renal function estimated by the CKD-EPI formula. The regression coefficient of body weight was fixed to 1 for V. Estimates of the population pharmacokinetic parameters are presented in Table 2. The typical clearance and volume of distribution for a patient with a glomerular filtration rate of 87 mL.min-1 and an actual body weight of 88 kg were 1.1 L.h -1 and 17.9 L respectively.

Model validation

The goodness-of-fit plots of the final models are presented in Figure 1. The data exhibited no apparent bias in model predictions. According to the pcVPC (supplementary data), the average observed values were well predicted. Only extreme profiles were not within 90% of the simulated values, demonstrating good predictive capacity of the models.

Simulations

Derived from the equations of the pharmacokinetic model and covariates distribution, simulations were performed to estimate the time-exposure profiles of enoxaparin for different dosing regimens. These simulations are presented in Figure 2

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the pharmacokinetic of enoxaparin in ICU COVID-19 patients using a population approach model. The analysis showed that the pharmacokinetic for subcutaneous enoxaparin was adequately described by a onecompartment model with first-order elimination. The mean volume of distribution and clearance were estimated to be 17.9 L and 1.1 L.h -1 , respectively. These values contrast with those described previously in non-ICU patients. [START_REF] Duffull | What do we learn from repeated population analyses?[END_REF] The clearance value was in the higher range but the volume of distribution value was outside of the normal range and increased by approximately 1.5 to 2 fold. Thus for a normalized dose of enoxaparin, exposition in ICU COVID-19 patients will be reduced compared to non-ICU non-COVID-19 patients. This discrepancy between ICU and non-ICU patients has previously been observed in non-COVID patients [START_REF] Dörffler-Melly | Bioavailability of subcutaneous low-molecular-weight heparin to patients on vasopressors[END_REF] [13] and recently in COVID-19 patients, [START_REF] Dutt | Thromboprophylaxis in COVID-19: Anti-FXa-the Missing Factor?[END_REF] suggesting that the high values of CL and V in our study are more related to the severity of the illness rather than the illness itself. The pathophysiological changes in critically ill patients (third spacing from increase vascular permeability and reduce oncotic pressure) and the administration of fluid resuscitation to maintain blood perfusion all contribute to an increase in the volume of distribution of hydrophilic drugs such as low-molecular-weight heparins. [START_REF] Blot | The effect of pathophysiology on pharmacokinetics in the critically ill patient -Concepts appraised by the example of antimicrobial agents[END_REF] In ICU patients, the use of vasopressors and the presence of oedema have both been associated with lower enoxaparin anti-Xa activities. [START_REF] Dörffler-Melly | Bioavailability of subcutaneous low-molecular-weight heparin to patients on vasopressors[END_REF] [27] These findings could be due to an increase in the volume of distribution but also to a decrease of subcutaneous absorption of enoxaparin due to cutaneous vasoconstriction or edema. Enoxaparin is partially eliminated by the kidney and requires dose adjustment in case of renal impairment. [START_REF] Hulot | Dosing strategy in patients with renal failure receiving enoxaparin for the treatment of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome[END_REF] [29] Acute kidney injury occurs in 10 percent of all hospitalized COVID-19 patients and 4 percent will require renal replacement therapy. [START_REF] Xu | Systematic review and subgroup analysis of the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with COVID-19[END_REF] However one study has reported that 38 percent of their ICU COVID-19 patients had augmented renal clearance. [START_REF] Vega | Low molecular weight heparins in COVID-19 patients: beware of augmented renal clearance![END_REF] Augmented renal clearance is related to an increased cardiac output and lower systemic vascular resistance which has been observed in mechanically-ventilated COVID-19 patients [START_REF] Caravita | Haemodynamic characteristics of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation. An invasive assessment using right heart catheterization[END_REF] and may have contributed to the high values of enoxaparin clearance observed in our pharmacokinetic model.

The covariate analysis showed that enoxaparin volume of distribution was related to total body weight and clearance to CKD-EPI. The identification of these two covariates as sources of variability is in accordance with population pharmacokinetic studies of enoxaparin in non-ICU patients. [START_REF] Duffull | What do we learn from repeated population analyses?[END_REF] A previous study recommended in obese patients to adjust therapeutic dose of enoxaparin to lean body weight. [START_REF] Green | Development of a dosing strategy for enoxaparin in obese patients[END_REF] We did not find that the use of this body size descriptor improved model fitting compared to total body weight probably because our study did not include patients with a range of body weights that was large enough, although a high proportion of obese patients were included. It has also been proposed to adjust enoxaparin administration to renal function using the Cockcroft and Gault equation, with ideal body weight used as the size descriptor. [START_REF] Green | Dosing strategy for enoxaparin in patients with renal impairment presenting with acute coronary syndromes[END_REF] Yet, in ICU patients, estimated glomerular filtration rate formulas are imprecise in assessing creatinine clearance with CKD-EPI being the less inaccurate formula. [START_REF] Ruiz | Screening of patients with augmented renal clearance in ICU: taking into account the CKD-EPI equation, the age, and the cause of admission[END_REF] The inter-individual variability of the final model for V and CL was high. This suggests that in the population in which the model was developed, adjusting dose to total body weight or to CKD-EPI values would have very little impact. This is illustrated by the similar time-exposure profiles of enoxaparin 40 mg bid with enoxaparin 0.5 mg.kg -1 bid (figure 2).

To explore the time-exposure profile of enoxaparin in ICU COVID-19 patients, we simulated various regimens encompassing regimens recommended in non COVID-19 ICU patients (40 mg qd and 30 mg bid), suggested intermediate regimens for COVID-19 ICU patients (40 mg bid, 0.5 mg.kg-1 bid) and a therapeutic dose anticoagulation currently investigated in COVID-19 ICU patients (1 mg.kg.m -1 bid). We also simulated, the thromboprophylactic regimen recommended for prophylaxis in medical patients (40 mg qd) using a pharmacokinetic model that was developed in non-COVID ward patients. [START_REF] Berges | Anti-factor Xa activity of enoxaparin administered at prophylactic dosage to patients over 75 years old[END_REF] The results indicated that to achieve enoxaparin exposure profiles in ICU COVID-19 patients similar to those in medical non-COVID-19 patients, a 50 percent increase in dose administration was required. There is however no clear relationship between anti-Xa activities and the efficacy or safety of lowmolecular-weight heparin thromboprophylaxis. [START_REF] Egan | Measuring Anti-Factor Xa Activity to Monitor Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin in Obesity: A Critical Review[END_REF] At present no target or range of anti-Xa activities can be recommended in particular in COVID-19 patients. The simulation in medical patients was for illustrative purposes only.

In non-COVID-19 critically ill patients, low-molecular-weight heparins reduce the risk of deep venous thrombosis without significantly increasing the risk of major bleeding. [START_REF] Park | Pharmacological and Mechanical Thromboprophylaxis in Critically Ill Patients: a Network Meta-Analysis of 12 Trials[END_REF] The dose of enoxaparin studied in these patients was 40 mg qd or 30 mg bid. As the rates of thrombotic complications have been found to be higher in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) compared to ICU non-COVID-19 patients, [START_REF] Helms | High risk of thrombosis in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection: a multicenter prospective cohort study[END_REF] an increase in the dosage of enoxaparin has been proposed [START_REF] Susen | Prevention of thrombotic risk in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and hemostasis monitoring[END_REF] [6] [7] [START_REF]Prevention, detection and management of VTE in patients with COVID-19[END_REF] but this could expose patients to an increase of bleeding events. The ongoing randomized clinical trials in COVID-19 patients will provide valuable information on the optimal dose for thromboprophylaxis.

This study has several limitations. The capacity of the model to predict exposures in patients that differ from our study is unknown. In particular, great care should be taken in patients above 120 kg and in those that develop acute kidney injury. The covariates tested in our model were those observed at ICU admission. We did not consider time-varying covariates. In ICU, patient's condition may change quickly. [START_REF] Moreno | The use of maximum SOFA score to quantify organ dysfunction/failure in intensive care. Results of a prospective, multicentre study. Working Group on Sepsis related Problems of the ESICM[END_REF] This could explain the relative high unexplained inter-individual variability of the final covariate model and that the disease severity scores (SOFA and OSCI score ) did not improve model predictions. Finally, thromboprophylaxis was not standardized (thromboprophylaxis regimen could vary for an individual and vary between individuals) and screening for venous thromboembolic events was not protocolized (chest CT-scan at admission and doppler venous ultrasound during ICU stay were not mandatory). This precluded any PK/PD analysis.

Conclusion

Exposure to enoxaparin in ICU COVID-19 patients is reduced due to an increase in the volume of distribution and clearance. To achieve exposures similar as those expected in non-ICU non-COVID-19 patients a 50 percent increase in dose administration is required.

  retrospective multicenter cohort study was conducted from 03/13/2020 to 03/31/2020 in all consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection treated by enoxaparin for the treatment or the prevention of venous thrombosis and hospitalized in the ICUs of Lille and Saint-Etienne University Hospitals. The study was approved by the institutional review board [IRBN502020/CHUSTE for Saint-Etienne, France and ID-CRB-2020-A00763-36 for Lille, France]. Enoxaparin dose regimens and dosing adjustments were at the discretion of the intensive care physicians in charge of the patients. As the study took place at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in France, local guidelines for the administration of enoxaparin were not implemented. Schematically, doses for thromboprophylaxis were 40 mg once daily at the beginning of the study and were increased throughout the study to intermediate dose (40 or 60 mg twice daily) after French proposals for preventing venous thrombosis in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.[5] Patients with asymptomatic deep venous thrombosis or asymptomatic pulmonary embolism were fully anticoagulated. Subjects were not eligible for inclusion in the study if they were treated with a non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant or unfractionated heparin prior to the administration of enoxaparin as these anticoagulants could have interfered with the dosing of the enoxaparin anti-Xa activity.

  age, height, sex, renal function (estimated by the Cockcroft & Gault and CKD-EPI formula) and disease severity scores (SOFA and OSCI score). Continuous covariates were tested with allometric scaling according to the following equation, using volume of distribution (V) as an example: where denote the volume of distribution of compartment of patient i; the typical volume of distribution; the bodyweight of patient i. Parameters represent the between subject variability of parameter V of patient i. The parameter corresponds to the regression coefficient. The regression coefficient of size descriptor was fixed at 0.75 and 1 for clearance (Cl) and V parameters, respectively.[24] Categorical covariates (disease severity scores, sex) were tested using the following equation, using clearance (Cl) as an example: where denote the clearance of patient i; the typical Clearance; Parameters represent the between-subject variability of parameter Cl of patient i. The parameter corresponds to the regression coefficient for SOFA score equal to 1. The parameter corresponds to the regression coefficient for SOFA score equal to 2. The parameter corresponds to the regression coefficient for SOFA score equal to n. The statistical significance of covariate was individually assessed during the stepwise procedure at the p < 0.001 level. Model evaluation and selection were based on visual inspection of the goodness-of-fit plots, the precision of parameter estimates, and the decrease in objective function (calculated by importance sampling). The prediction-corrected visual predictive check (pcVPC) was generated by simulating 1000 times datasets using the model of interest and the design of the observed data. [25] The ability of the model to describe the observations was evaluated by visual inspection of the distribution of the simulated concentrations. The median parameter values and the 90% prediction interval of the pcVPC replicates were compared with the observations comprising the original dataset.

Figure 1 :Figure 2 : pharmacokinetic simulation of enoxaparin exposure on day 3 .

 123 Figure 1: goodness-of-fit plots of the final model

  [START_REF] Cockcroft | Prediction of creatinine clearance from serum creatinine[END_REF] ICU patients had at least one dose of enoxaparin and one anti-Xa measurement. The characteristics of these patients are presented in Table1. On admission in ICU, patients had a mean (± SD) weight of 88 ± 17 kg, 40% had a body mass index above 30 kg.m -2 . The mean (± SD) estimated glomerular filtration rate (CKD-EPI formula) was 87 ± 22 mL.min -1 , 14% of the subjects had moderate or severe renal failure (CKD-EPI <60 mL.min -1 ). The mean (± SD) SOFA score was 4.6 ± 2.7, 47% of the patients required invasive mechanical ventilation. Intermediate-intensity or therapeutic-

intensity anticoagulation (enoxaparin > 60 mg per day) was administered to 64 percent of the patients on admission in ICU. During hospitalisation venous thromboembolic events occurred in 25 patients (26%), twenty patients were diagnosed with pulmonary embolism. Major bleeding during low-molecular-weight thromboprophylaxis occurred in three patients

(3.2%)

Table 1 Characteristics of the patients at admission to the Intensive Care Unit

 1

	Data was unavailable for 5 (#) and 1 (&) patients
	Number of patients		95
	Sex-no. (%)	Female	22 (23%)
	Age-yr	Mean  SD	63 ± 11
		Min -Max	29 -82
	Weight-kg	Mean  SD	88 ± 17
		Min -Max	55 -150
	Body Mass Index-kg.m -2 #	≥ 30	36 (40%)
	Ordinal Scale for Clinical	4	33 (35%)
	Improvement &
		5	17 (18%)
		6	27 (29%)
		7	17 (18%)
	Sequential Organ Failure	Mean  SD	4.6  2.7
	Assessment score
		Min -Max	1 -12
	Chronic Kidney Disease-	Mean  SD	87 ± 22
	Epidemiology Collaboration
	equation-mL.min -1
		Min -Max	14 -138
	D-Dimer-ng.ml -1	Mean  SD	3047 ± 3651
		Min -Max	0 -20,000
	Fibrinogen-g.l -1	Mean  SD	6.9 ± 1.6
		Min -Max	2.8 -11
	Enoxaparin regimen	Prophylactic	34 (36%)
		≤ 60 mg qd
		Intermediate	36 (38%)
		40 or 60 mg bid
		Full dose	25 (26%)
		1 mg.kg -1 bid

Table 2 . Pharmacokinetic parameters

 2 Ka, absorption rate constant; CL, clearance; V, volume of distribution; eGFR, estimated glomerular function rate (mL.min-1) according to the CKD-EPI formula; Wt, actual body weight (kg); σ 2 , residual variance; IIV, inter-individual variability.

	Parameters	Value	IIV
	Ka (h -1 )	0.48
	Cl (L.h -1 ) = θ1×(eGFR/87) θ2		0.40
	θ1	1.1
	θ2	0.18
	V (L) = θ3×(Wt/85)		0.44
	θ3	17.9
	σ 2 proportional (CV%)	0.28

Table 3 Enoxaparin exposure markers at steady state

 3 The predicted enoxaparin exposure markers at steady state, after three days of administration were simulated using the model presented in this study for COVID-19 ICU patients and using the model developed by Berges et al.[START_REF] Berges | Anti-factor Xa activity of enoxaparin administered at prophylactic dosage to patients over 75 years old[END_REF] for non-COVID-19 medical patients. AUC d3 , area under the plasma concentration-time curve at day 3; Cmax d3 , maximum plasma concentration

	on day 3.
	enoxaparin regimen	AUC d3 IU.h.mL-1	Cmax d3 IU.mL-1
		median [90% prediction	median [90% prediction
		interval]	interval]
	COVID-19 ICU patients
	enoxaparin 40 mg qd	3.35 [1.76 -6.16]	0.22 [0.13 -0.37]
	enoxaparin 30 mg bid	4.93 [2.69 -8.80]	0.25 [0.14 -0.42]
	enoxaparin 40 mg bid	6.54 [3.59 -11.90]	0.33 [0.19 -0.57]
	enoxaparin 0.5 mg/kg bid	7.17 [3.54 -13.18]	0.36 [0.20 -0.63]
	enoxaparin 1 mg/kg bid	14.60 [7.41 -26.76]	0.72 [0.41 -1.27]
	Non COVID-19 medical patients
	enoxaparin 40 mg qd	5.15 [3.29 -8.54]	0.45 [0.31 -0.68]

Supplementary data: prediction-corrected visual predictive check.

The black dash curve represents the 5, 50 and 95 empirical observed percentiles. The red and blue shaded envelope represents the prediction interval for the simulations of 5, 50 and 95 percentiles. The blue dots represent the observed enoxaparin activities.


Nadji Rahmania

Measuring equilibrium models: a multivariate approach

Keywords: JEL classifications: E31, E32, C22, C32 detrending, Hodrick-Prescott filter, noiseto-signal ratio, Nairu, Potential output, unobserved components models

HAL is a

Introduction

Contemporary literature often tries to present unobserved variable as an equilibrium value at which the observed or realised GDP values are compared. The output gap, which is commonly defined as the diference between actual and potential GDP, is a common way to assess the appropriateness of monetary and fiscal policies.

The recent literature presents three major methods to consider unobserved variables as potential GDP. The first one is the development of a structural model with theoretical based foundations. This gives potential growth estimation. The second method, which makes a significant use of statistical properties, consists of the application of a smoothing filter on the observed time series and gives a growth trend which is believed to be potential growth. The last method crosses the theoretical based models with statistical techniques methodology.

Among the wide range of procedures, the filter method implements statistical procedures to the selected variables. The univariate Hodrick-Prescott (HP here after) filter (Hodrick andPrescott 1980, 1997) is probably the most frequently adopted procedure, especially because of its simplicity. The HP filter which must be linked to Kalman filter is commonly used to estimate and predict business cy cles and is applied by minimising residuals of one or more economic relations that involve at least the unobserved variable. This minimizing program is subject to a smoothness constraint α . The filtered series is a symmetrical and centred mov ing average, where the smoothing parameter is important because it conditions the smoothing extent of the observed time series. The smoothness of the series depends of the appropriate value of the positive value of smoothing parameter chosen by the user. Choice of smoothing parameter strongly conditions the qualitative behaviour of the filter, compared to observed series. A very high value of α will produce straight line trends estimates', and trend estimates that follow closely the data will be produce by low values of α . Some authors, (Baxter and King 1999, French 2001, King and Rebello 1993) show that the smoothing parameter value is subject to a strong uncertainty so that the definition of the smoothing parameter value appears defined in an ad hoc way, without real foundations, that can be linked to the observed series characteristics'. Numerous simulations' findings and recommended figures from standard econometrics and statistical packages usually recommend as smoothness constant, 100 for annual data, 1600 for quarterly data, and 14400 for monthly data.

Then, like a numerous univariate filtering methods, HP filter is purely historical and static. This HP filter becomes imprecise near the end of data. Indeed, the estimated trend is a moving average of the data where current estimate depends of future outcomes. The estimate carried out at the end of the sample does not include any more suffi cient relevant observations to deduce an adequate current outcome because future observations are insuffi cient. HP filter cannot be used to conduct forecasts or to be a relevant instrument for evaluation of economic policy measures.

In order to improve the unobserved variable estimates, Laxton and Tetlow (1992) extend the standard HP filter by introducing economic constraints to the optimization problem associated with the HP filter. New equations will give infor mations about labour and good markets tensions. Then, their recently developed filtering method taking into account various economic variables gives a multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter But, as univariate HP filter, last smoothing methods use ad-hoc defined standard smoothing parameter. Schlicht (2005) proposed an automatic two-sided filter method based on similar methods to estimate smoothing constant to define a non ad-hoc smoothing parameter. But mathematic convergence properties of this estimator are not demonstrated and consistency of Schlicht's filter remains unproved.

An original procedure for estimating potential output is presented that make use of new developed multivariate Hodrick-Prescott Filter (MVHP Revue Roumaine de Statistique nr. 3 / 2011 hereafter). New estimator of the smoothing parameter which is explicit and consistent, based on the optimality criterion firstly suggested by Schlicht (2005) is developed by Dermoune, Djehiche andRahmania (2008,2009)(DDR hereafter). This new estimator is cal culated starting from the whole set of available observations and does not depend any longer of the researcher's choices. This new estimator is also associated with a constructed interval confidence with a precise confidence level.

The main interest of this developed approach is that it is located in the mid dle ground of standard statistical approach of the time series univariate filtering method and use of a standard structural model. The purpose of this paper is to offer a rather comprehensive and new method to estimate of potential output using a multivariate Hodrick-Prescott Filter (MVHP) in order to make empirical esti mates of macroeconomic time series. Main idea behind this MVHP is that more informations is considered from single times series data. This version of MVHP, which is developed by DDR (2008DDR ( ,2009) is an extension of Schlicht's suggestion.

This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces the Hodrick-Prescott filter and Section 3 introduces a consistent Multivariat Hodrick-Prescott filter. Es timates of potential output for the United States economy are provided in section 4. A final section offers summary results, draws extensions of this empirical assessment and concludes.

The univariate Hodrick-Prescott filter

Let x = (x 1 , ..., x T ) ∈ R T be a time series of observables. The HP filter decomposes x into a nonstationary trend y ∈ R T and a cyclical residual component (noise term) u ∈ R T : x = y + u.

(2.1)

Given a smoothing parameter α > 0, this decomposition of x is obtained by mini mizing the weighted sum of squares

x -y 2 + α D 2 y 2 (2.2) with respect to y, where for a ∈ R T , a 2 = T i=1 a 2 i .
Here, D 2 y is the trend disturbance obtained by acting the second order forward shift operator D 2 on the trend y = (y1,y2,...,yT ):

D 2 yt := (yt+2 -yt+1) -(yt+ 1 -yt),t = 1,2,..., T-2, or, equivalently, D 2 y t := 2 y t+2 + y t 2 -y t+1 ,
measuring the deviation between the value of the trend at t+1, y t+1 and the linear interpolation between yt and yt+2.

In vector form,

P y(t) = D 2 y t , t= 1, . . . , T -2, (2.3)
where, the shift operator P is the following (T+2) x T-matrix

P := ⎛ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ 1 -2 1 . . . . . . 0 0 1 -2 1 . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . 1 -2 1 ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ .
Following [START_REF] Schlicht | Estimating the smoothing parameter in the so-called Hodrick-Prescott filter[END_REF], a way to estimate the smoothing parameter α is to let the optimal solution y(α,x) in Eq.(2.2) be the best predictor of any trend y given the time series x, i.e. y(α,x) = E[y|x]. (2.4) This approach of estimating α assumes that we are able to compute explicitly this conditional expectation, which is not always the case. The normal and more generally the elliptical probability distributions are among the few models for which an explicit formula for the conditional expectation is possible. In order to estimate the trend and the smoothing parameter, given the time series of observations x, we obviously need a model for the joint distribution of (x,y). This can be achieved through imposing a model for the joint distribution of (u,v).

According to DDR(2008), under the assumption that the disturbances u and v are independent and normally distributed, the following statistics

α = - 1 4 3 2 + (T -3) T -2 j=1 P x(j) 2 (T -2) T -3 j=1 P x(j)P x(j + 1) -1 (2.5)
based on the time series of observation Px, is a consistent estimator of the smoothing parameter α.

The Hodrick-Prescott Multivariate filter

The MVHP seeks to estimate the unobserved variable y as a solution to the following minimization problem

arg min y (||x -y|| 2 + α 1 ||P y|| 2 + α 2 ||ξ|| 2 ), (3.1)
given the following dynamics:

⎧ ⎨ ⎩ x = y + u, z := x * -dX = βy + ξ, P y = v, (3.2)
where, x* is another explanantory variable and X is an exogenous variable affected by the parameter d. Moreover, a way to estimate the smoothing parameters α 1 and α 2 is to let the optimal solution y in (3.1) be the best predictor of any trend y given the time series (x,z), i.e.

y = E[y|(x,z)] (3.3)
DDR( 2009), when the noise term u and the signal terms v are independent Gaussian vectors with mean zero, the following statistics:

α 1 = - 1 4 3 2 + (T -3) T -2 j=1 P x(j) 2 (T -2) T -3 j=1 P x(j)P x(j + 1) -1 , α 2 = T -3 j=1 P x(j)P x(j + 1)
T -3 j=1 P z(j)P z(j + 1) , and Figure 1 shows the pattern of the US unemployment rate over the period 1999:2 to 2009:2. The first curve represents the observed U.S. unemployment rate. The second curve fits the smooth trend which is obtained from a standard HP filter. Numerous simulations show that standard HP series will follow the data closely if the value of the smoothing coeffcient is low. A more important value, α = 1600 is the optimal smoothing parameter value usually adopted for quarterly data. This standard HP filter uses only the data itself to carry out the smoothing series and extracted the trend line. The third curve describes the U.S. unemployment rate trend which is estimated from the implementation of the multivariate HP filter as described by DDR (2009). Figure 1 clearly shows that unemployment rate series estimates according to this standard HP filter can be very different from the observed unemployment time series. Analysis of both Figure 1 and table 3 show that this standard HP filter will induce large unemployment gaps as given in Figure 3. The economic dynamism of the first half of 2000, which supports a significant reduction of unemployment in many economies and more particularly in U.S. economy over following years 2004-2006 are imperfectly analyzed by this standard HP filter. There would be an excessive unemployment compared to its trend over 1999:2-1999:4, 2001:4-2005:1 and 2008:4-2009:2 periods. These deviations are important and indicated the low capacity of the standard HP filter to establish forecasts. This HP filter has low power to specify recent macroeconomic shocks as financial crisis and its incidence on U.S. unemployment rate. Such weaknesses of standard HP filter are quite significant over the end of sample but not within sample.

β = 2(T -3) T -2 j=1 P z(j) 2 + 3(T -2) T -3 j=1 P z(j)P z(j + 1) 2(T -3) T -2 j=1 P x(j) 2 + 3(T -2) T -3 j=1 P x(j)P x(j + 1)
Mechanical phenomenon and especially the lack of power for the border periods of filter are clearly highlighted in Figure 3 because gap between U.S. unemployment rate and HF filter are significant. Table 4 shows summary statistics for quarterly unemployment measures for U.S. economy for the period 1999:2-2009:2. It shows a low correlation between U.S. unemployment rate and HP filter because correlation is 0.70, whereas the correlation between the actual U.S. unemployment rate and MVHP is strong and high. Estimate of the latter correlation coeffcient between both series is 0.99. Those results, also shown by figure 1, describe powerful effects of MVHP over standard HP filter. Figure 4 which presents gaps between U.S. unemployment time series and HP filters confirms previous analysis because value of MVHP filter are less significant than standard HP values.

The HP filter does not appear relevant to evaluate the business cycles and their consequences on unemployment rates as well as unemployment gaps between both time series. Figure 1 and summary statistics from table 3 clearly support the idea that HP filter is not a powerful tool to establish forecasts, because it does not include enough additional economic relations and feedbacks with macroeconomic variables. The HP filter is not a relevant way to appreciate economic policy measures taken by national authorities.

The MVHP allows a larger consideration of the various economic variables leading to a low gap between MVHP and observed unemployment series inside series sample as well as at frontier values of sample. MVHP is clearly linked with U.S. unemployment rate. This eases economic forecasts and the appreciation of economic policies measures. MVHP robustness compared to the HP filter results firstly from the fact that economic relations are taken onto consideration.

In Tables 2, we collect the estimated values of the statistics, α 1 , α 2 and β based on DDR method. Important correlation between U.S. GDP time series is also presented in Table 3. But, those estimated correlations might appear different when assessing from a graph.

A visual inspection of figure 2 shows that the standard HP trend is linear over complete period. This graph indicates an actual GDP higher than the standard HP trend between 2003:3 and 2005:2 and over the recent period of 2008:4 to 2009:2. The trend of the standard HP filter is less powerful because the linear trend of recent period lasts whereas the GDP strongly reduces over this period. This standard HP filter does not constitute a powerful way to make GDP forecasts when there is an important unanticipated shock.

On the other side, comparison of actual GDP and MVHP shows close correla tion. From MVHP time series, one can conclude that DDR (2009) is quite powerful to make adequate forecasts. Figure 4 makes comparison of two output gaps. Vi sual inspection of this graph clearly shows that gap between actual GDP and MV Potential GDP is always lesser than 1. Then, one can conclude that DDR (2009) method produces more significant results. This graph confirms coeffcient corre lation figures from table 3, where correlation coeffcient between both time series is nearly 1. On the other hand, same graph shows that standard HP filter might appear larger than 1and last period's observations are clearly different from actual U.S. GDP time series. Standard HP filter is not able to give close figures for border values of U.S. GDP, which is a common remark for this standard HP filter. This shows that this new estimator has more powerful effects than standard HP filter.

This table shows summary statistics for quarterly unemployment measures for U.S. economy for the period 1999:2-2009:2. This table shows a low correlation between U.S. unemployment rate and HP filter because correlation is 0.73, whereas the correlation between the U.S. unemployment rate and HPMV is strong and high. Correlation coefi cient between last coefi cients is 0.99. This shows more powerful effects of HPMV on HP filter.

The HP filter appears relevant to evaluate the business cycles and their conse quences on unemployment rates as well as unemployment gaps between both time seires. But graph 1 and summary statistics from table 1 clearly support the idea of HP filter is not a powerful tools to establish forecasts, because it does not include enough additional economic relations and feedbacks with macroeconomic variables. The HP filter is not a relevant way to appreciate economic policy measures taken by national authorities.

The HPMV allows a larger consideration of the various economic variables leading to a low gap between HPMV and observed unemployment series inside series sample as well as at frontier values of sample. HPMV is clearly linked with U.S. unemployment rate. This eases economic forecasts and the appreciation of economic policies measures. HPMV robustness compared to the HP filter results firstly from the fact that economic relations are taken onto consideration.

Conclusions

This paper presents results from a methodology based on the multivariate HP filter developed by Dermoune, Djehiche and Rahmania (2008,2009). This methodology is implemented to U.S. unemployment rate and U.S. GDP data spanning from 1999:2 to 2009:2. This original methodology confirms that standard HP filter provides low powerful estimations for U.S. macroeconomic data, notably at the end of the sample, which should be most relevant for policymakers. Multivariate HP filter provides more realistic estimations for trend. This will then provide better references for macroeconomic forecasting. Those results confirm that this recent estimator is more powerful effects than standard HP filter.

Appendix

Nairu Multivariate Estimation

Figure 1 NAIRU Multivariate Estimation

1 9 9 9 Q 2 2 0 0 0 Q 1 2 0 0 0 Q 4 2 0 0 1 Q 3 2 0 0 2 Q 2 2 0 0 3 Q 1 2 0 0 3 Q 4 2 0 0 4 Q 3 2 0 0 5 Q 2 2 0 0 6 Q 1 2 0 0 6 Q 4 2 0 0 7 Q 3 2 0 0 8 Q 2 2 0 0 9 Q 1 Multivariate NAIRU Unemployment Rate HP1600 NAIRU 8

Potential Output Estimation

Table 2 :

 2 GDP: Estimated values of α 1 , α 2 and β.

Figure 2

 2 Figure 2 makes a comparison of U.S. GDP between actual U.S. GDP and both potential outputs. Results are quite different from previous calibration.

Table 1 :

 1 are consistent estimators for α 1 , α 2 and β based only on the time series of obser vations Px and Pz.Empirical assessment refers to U.S. unemployment and U.S. GDP spanning from 1957:2 to 2009:2. Both times series are monthly seasonally adjusted, but are con verted to quarterly frequency. The data for this empirical analysis is obtained from the Fed website database. We are focused on U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and U.S. unemployment rate. All items are about Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, less Energy comes from Bureau of Labor Statistics of Department of Labor, and is provided by the bureau of labor statistics website. Unemployment rate is extracted from the same site and comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of U.S. Department of Labor.In Tables 1, we collect the estimated values of the statistics α 1 , α 2 and β based on Dermoune, Djehiche and Rahmania method.

	1/2

NAIRU: Estimated values of α 1 , α 2 and β.

Table 3

 3 Mean Median Min Max St.dev

	Unempl.	5.06	5.00	3.9	7.2	0.79
	HP(1600) Unempl.Trend	5.12	5.25	4.0	76.0	0.47
	MVHP Unempl.Trend	4.86	4.77	3.71 7.83	0.85
	GDP	4.07	4.06	3.96 4.16	0.06
	HP(1600) GDP trend	4.07	4.07	3.96 4.17	0.06
	MVHP GDP trend	4.07	4.06	3.96 4.16	0.06
		Correlations

Table 4

 4 Unempl. HP(1600) Unempl.Trend MVHP Unempl.Trend

	Unempl.	1
	HP(1600) Unempl.Trend	0.7	1
	MVHP Unempl.Trend	0.94	0.70	1
		GDP	HP(1600) GDP trend	MVHP GDP trend
	GDP	1
	HP(1600) GDP trend	0.99	1	1
	MVHP GDP trend	0.99	0.99	1

Revista Română de Statistică nr. 3 / 2011


Michel Pigenet

Sylvain Pattieu

Pattieu Sylvain

archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt

L'événement : les coups de feu du 16 mars 1966

Ce jour-là, à 16 h 30, heure de fin de la vacation de l'après-midi, les dockers affectés au déchargement du cargo ivoirien Aen-Goué accosté au poste 7 du cap Janet refusent d'accomplir des heures supplémentaires. La consigne, lancée sur l'ensemble du port par la CGT, expose les armateurs à des retards synonymes de lourdes pénalités qu'aggrave l'extension du mot d'ordre au travail de nuit, du dimanche et des jours fériés. Elle ménage, en revanche, les dockers embauchés le matin et assurés de gagner leur journée. Le mouvement, entamé le 12 février par les conducteurs d'engins, concerne les dockers depuis le 22. Les revendications concernent les salaires, les primes et les indemnités, la durée du travail et l'aménagement des horaires, la garantie de l'emploi des spécialistes. 4 R. Mencherini, Midi rouge, ombres et lumières. 1. Les années de crise, 1930-1940, Paris, Syllepse, 2004, p. 63-65 ;P. Jankowski, Communism and collaboration. Simon Sabiani and politics in Marseille 1919-1944, New Haven et Londres, Yale University Press, 1989 ;J.-B. Nicolaï, Simon Sabiani. Un « chef » à Marseille, 1919-1940, Paris, Olivier Orban, 1991. Tandis que le gros des ouvriers se dirige vers un arrêt de bus, une quinzaine

  Un imaginaire de roman noir : trafics, nervis et truands sur les quais marseillais des années 1950-1960 Sylvain Pattieu et Michel Pigenet L'imaginaire portuaire comporte une face sombre, propre à entretenir les incompréhensions, les mépris et les peurs associés aux activités, comme aux hommes qui s'y côtoient, voyageurs inconnus et travailleurs indociles. Monde du mouvement, de la spéculation et du transitoire jusque dans l'intermittence de ses emplois, de l'épreuve de force quotidienne des manutentions et des relations professionnelles, les ports auraient des allures de jungle 1 . « Affaires » et faits divers retentissants alimentent régulièrement la légende noire. Première étape d'une recherche en cours, notre contribution revient sur le cas de Marseille, dont la réputation croisée de ville cosmopolite et violente doit beaucoup à son statut portuaire 2 . L'entrée par les modalités de la conflictualité sociale sur les quais n'est certes pas la seule envisageable. Du moins met-elle à jour des pratiques de longue durée, révélatrices de porosités combinées entre le port et son environnement, l'affrontement et la négociation, le visible et le clandestin, légal et l'illégal… Dans l'entre-deux-guerres, le syndicalisme portuaire marseillais fut l'un des principaux creusets du sabianisme, à la charnière du populisme fascisant, du clientélisme traditionnel et du crime. Trois décennies plus tard, le 16 mars 1966, cinq grévistes sont blessés, dont quatre par les balles d'un révolver, au cours d'une échauffourée entre des dockers en lutte et des « jaunes ». Trois hommes, Marsily, Santiago et Gomez, qualifiés par la presse communiste locale d' « hommes de main », sont condamnés. Les faits, leurs acteurs et enjeux donnent à comprendre la permanence de logiques et de pratiques portuaires. Le dossier des relations du port à la violence et à l'illégalité est donc lourd, ancien et complexe. Il en découle une propension portuaire aux « trafics » et ces réalités entretiennent une criminalité spécifique qui rejaillit sur les représentations de la ville. Les rudes affrontements entre le patronat, les syndicats et les autorités pour la maîtrise, voire le contrôle partiel, de cet espace social décisif de la cité atteignent un degré inédit de violence quand la pègre locale en voie 1 R. Cornu, « Dockers et manutentionnaires dans la jungle du port », Cahiers du GRHIS, n° spécial Le syndicalisme docker depuis 1945 (dir. M. Pigenet), n° 7, 1997, p. 41-55. 2 C. Regnard-Drouot, Marseille la violente. Criminalité, industrialisation et société (1851-1914), Rennes, PUR, 2009 ; L. Montel, Marseille capitale du crime. Histoire croisée de l'imaginaire de Marseille et de la criminalité organisée, 1820-1940, thèse d'histoire, Paris 10, 2008. d'internationalisation de ses horizons, s'engage dans une stratégie d'infiltration de chacun des intervenants classiques. La matrice des années 1920-1930 : Sabiani, Carbone et Spirito et les autres L'image d'un Marseille-Chicago, apparue dans les années 1920, doit beaucoup à la présence du port. L'activité portuaire permet le développement de réseaux clandestins de traite européenne, puis mondiale, de produits de contrebande ou illicites, mais encore d'êtres humains qui usent des ressources du port, haut lieu d'un marché du travail propice au marchandage et à ses abus. Ces activités prospèrent aux abords de l'enceinte portuaire, dans les bars, où les dockers trouvent à s'embaucher, les bordels et les hôtels borgnes fréquentés par la foule des marins et des voyageurs en transit. Le « quartier réservé » est, avant-guerre, le principal espace de prostitution à Marseille. Créé en 1864, par le préfet Maupas, autour du Vieux-Port, il est délimité par les rues de la Reynarde, Radeau, de la Loge, Lancerie et Caisserie, dans lequel la prostitution est autorisée et réglementée. Là, des femmes racolent en permanence sur le front de magasins. Outre ces échoppes, les prostituées sont présentes dans les bars et petits cafés du quartier, où elles logent dans des garnis souvent misérables. Elles sont partie intégrante de la vie et de la sociabilité du quartier, participant à l'animation bruyante des rues. Ailleurs dans la ville existent des maisons de passe et des maisons de rendez-vous, plus discrètes. Les proxénètes sont de jeunes hommes issus des milieux populaires, souvent navigateurs à l'origine. La Première Guerre mondiale est l'occasion de recompositions du trottoir marseillais. Les proxénètes corses, qui dominaient avant-guerre, sont envoyés au front et voient leurs positions remises en cause par de nouveaux venus : soldats blancs des « Bat' d'Af' » (Bataillons d'Afrique), les bataillons disciplinaires, stationnés au fort Saint-Jean proche du port, avec lesquels de nombreux coups de feu sont échangés en 1919, ou navigateurs noirs venus des Antilles ou des colonies d'Afrique de l'Ouest 3 . Il n'y a pas, comme aux Etats-Unis, de ségrégation liée à la couleur et les proxénètes noirs font travailler des filles blanches, parfois même d'origine corse. L'écrivain africain-américain Claude McKay, qui a vécu à Marseille au milieu des années 1920, décrit ainsi avec nostalgie, dans son roman Banjo, le dynamisme cosmopolite du quartier réservé dans lequel circule aisément 3 -Le Petit Marseillais, 11 février 1919 ; S. Pattieu, « Souteneurs noirs à Marseille, 1918-1921. Contribution à l'histoire de la minorité noire en France », Annales. Histoire, Sciences sociales, n° 2009-6, novembre-décembre 2009. son personnage. Les fusillades dont témoignent les archives de justice et les journaux sont cependant un signe du climat tendu au sein de l'espace prostitutionnel marseillais : les positions des souteneurs traditionnels ont été fragilisées et voient leur autorité contestée. La pègre marseillaise reprend cependant le contrôle de la prostitution. La vie politique locale est marquée par les liens avec ce monde interlope. La carrière de Simon Sabiani en est emblématique. Venu très jeune de Corse, gravement blessé pendant la Première Guerre mondiale, Simon Sabiani construit un fief politique dans le quartier du Panier, passant du parti socialiste au parti communiste lors du congrès de Tours, avant d'en être exclu et de se rapprocher progressivement des armateurs du port et de la droite, puis l'extrême-droite 4 . Il devient le quasi-maire de Marseille entre 1929 et 1935. Formellement premier adjoint d'un maire octogénaire, il dirige la ville selon les principes du clientélisme, s'appuyant pour ses campagnes électorales sur deux proxénètes notoires, Carbone et Spirito, dont les troupes constituent sa main-d'oeuvre militante. Carbone et Spirito ont construit leur influence tout d'abord sur la prostitution, mais ils diversifient ensuite leurs activités, n'hésitant pas pendant les années 1930 à initier le réseau qu'on appellera ensuite la « French connexion ». Il existe donc un large système de complicité et de corruption qui, des marins et dockers, hommes de main et petites mains des trafics, aux responsables administratifs et politiques, l'autorisent et le banalisent.

  d'« occasionnels », Gitans et non-dockers aux dires des syndicalistes, embauchés pour l'occasion par l'Intramar, prétendent les remplacer. Depuis plusieurs jours, la tension monte sur les quais où le syndicat CGT a repéré et signalé à la police la présence « d'équipes d'individus étrangers à la profession dont certains semblaient armés » 5 . Sur leur garde, les syndicalistes ont renforcé les piquets de grève. Des cris et des insultes fusent à l'adresse des grévistes sommés de reprendre le travail -« Remontez à bord, vous allez faire des heures supplémentaires ! » -depuis les rangs des « jaunes » munis de barres de fer, de nerfs de boeuf, de fouets métalliques. A sa manière, le 17 mars, Le Méridional, quotidien très orienté à droite et peu suspect de sympathies cégétistes, confirme la volonté d'en découdre. Sur le mode ironique, son rédacteur parle d'un groupe « dont l'allure et les propos n'avaient pas grandchose à voir avec la qualité de docker, même occasionnel, mais nous n'irons pas jusqu'à leur dénier le désir de travailler, il ne faut jurer de rien ».Bientôt en contact, les deux groupes se jaugent quand l'un des briseurs de grève, Daniel Gomez, frappe au visage Claude Nicolaï, un syndicaliste, avec un fouet-matraque en fil de fer torsadé. Le geste déclenche une bagarre générale, pendant que l'agresseur s'échappe vers un hangar où il est rattrapé. L'homme est un ami d'Augustin Marsily, homme de confiance de la direction d'Intramar et « dont une des activités consiste à recruter des hommes prêts à faire face à toute intervention des commandos de gréviste » 6 . Président d'un mystérieux Comité d'action des hommes libres qui s'est manifesté dans les premiers jours du mouvement, son arrivée sur place au volant d'une ID ou DS bleue n'est pas passée inaperçue.Resté dans le véhicule, il dirige les opérations. Au moment de l'échauffourée et alors que les grévistes se rassemblent autour de la voiture, il exhibe un pistolet 9 mm et fait feu. Furieux, les ouvriers neutralisent la voiture en la renversant, tandis qu'un adjointde Marsily, François Santiago, regroupe ses hommes pour porter secours à leur chef. Dans la confusion générale, l'arme tombe, d'abord ramassée par un syndicaliste, est finalement récupérée par Santiago, qui tire à son tour pendant que le véhicule, remis sur ses roues et conduit par Marsily, part en trombe. Cette fuite déclenche celle des assaillants, talonnés par les grévistes qui ceinturent Santiago et le remettront à la police ainsi que Gomez. Quatre dockers blessés par des ricochets de balles sont évacués vers des hôpitaux, mais d'autres sont soignés sur place. La nouvelle de l'affrontement a tôt fait le tour des quais. Rendus sur les lieux, les responsables cégétistes appellent à une grève de 24 heures pour le lendemain, puis se rendent en délégation auprès de la direction du port mise en cause pour sa longue tolérance envers les auteurs des faits. Dans la soirée, Marsily est interpellé.Le 17, les trois quotidiens régionaux font une large place aux incidents de la veille. Le matin, la CGT organise un rassemblement sur la place de Joliette, face au port et à proximité du siège du syndicat. « Finissez-en avec la pratique des équipes d'hommes de main », exige un militant à l'adresse du patronat et des autorités. A chaque conflit, explique-t-il, des « individus armés, étrangers aux corporations de travailleurs » sévissent, des syndicalistes sont menacés de coups de couteau et de révolver, sinon agressés. Un communiqué du bureau confédéral de la CGT porte l'affaire au niveau national, condamne l'usage par le patronat de « gangsters notoires » et attend du ministère du Travail qu'il agisse en faveur de l'ouverture de négociations. Des débrayages et des délégations, parfois des grèves de 24 heures, traduisent dans toute la France la solidarité des dockers. A Marseille même, les syndicats CGC et Indépendants se déclarent « solidaires des travailleurs du port », cependant que leur homologue de Force ouvrière, plus précis et sévère, s'élève contre les « méthodes de gangstérisme » de « l'équipe de provocateurs conduite par le nommé Marcilly ». De façon plus exceptionnelle encore, il assure ses « camarades de la CGT de [son] concours et de [son] soutien ». Pendant l'instruction de l'affaire, la grève se poursuit, marquée par une succession de négociations reprises, puis interrompues, d'arrêts généraux du travail de 24, 48 ou 72 heures, et de lock-out. Par solidarité, les dockers des ports méditerranéens refusent de manutentionner les navires détournés de Marseille. Un accord est enfin trouvé le 26 mai. La conflictualité se prolonge toutefois sous une forme larvée à propos de son interprétation. A l'évidence, les temps changent sur les quais phocéens. Le contexte : la CGT à la reconquête du port La CGT revient de loin. Défaite en 1950, elle ne conserve, longtemps et paradoxalement, des forces que parmi les agents de maîtrise du port. Salariés permanents des entreprises d'acconage aux compétences reconnues, ceux-ci s'avèrent plus difficiles à licencier ou à écarter que les dockers dont plus de 600 se voient retirer leur carte professionnelle à titre définitif en 1950 ou sont mis à l'index par les employeurs qui interdisent de les recruter. Retombé à quelques centaines d'adhérents pour plus de 4 000 dockers, le syndicat des dockers vit des années durant dans une semi-clandestinité. S'ils votent à près de 80 à 85 % pour les candidats cégétistes lors des élections aux caisses de Sécurité sociale, les dockers sont écartés, pour cause d'intermittence, des consultations professionnelles tenues dans les entreprises. Le vide créé par l'effondrement des effectifs cégétistes n'est pas comblé par ses nombreux concurrents -FO, Indépendants, CGC, La Défense -bénéficiaires de la bienveillance des autorités qui leur ouvrent les portes du bureau paritaire d'embauche. Les employeurs révisent à la hausse les rendements et les charges des palanquées, réduisent la composition des équipes, recrutent plus que jamais les intermittents dans les bars des environs du port. Ces violations de la loi de 1947 sont rarement sanctionnées par la direction du port, préoccupée de trafic et de productivité. Prompte à décréter l'embauche libre, à punir les refus d'exécution d'heures supplémentaires, elle modifie les horaires et les heures de mise effective au travail. Les shifts « différés » obligent ainsi des dockers recrutés à 6 h à devoir attendre plusieurs heures avant de commencer à travailler. Le syndicat CGT peine à relever la tête. En 1955, il réussit à entraîner une cinquantaine d'équipes à ralentir les rendements et à refuser les heures supplémentaires contre une nouvelle variante des shifts différés. En 1957, il proteste contre la tolérance du BCMO à l'égard des embauches clandestines. Isolée, la CGT engrange toutefois peu de succès. Le tournant se produit en 1961. Parti, fin septembre, des chantiers d'Intramar, à l'initiative du syndicat Indépendant, un mouvement de refus des heures supplémentaires, des vacations de nuit et de week-end, dure 45 jours. Ponctués de lock-out, il porte très vite la marque des revendications et de la tactique cégétistes. La CGT est présente, en effet, dans le Comité intersyndical de coordination que relaient 12 comités de base. Un accord conclu sans elle, le 19 octobre, est désavoué par l'assemblée générale du lendemain, qui contraint les responsables de FO et du syndicat de la Défense à retirer leur signature. Le 13 novembre, le conflit s'achève sur un succès. Bien du chemin reste néanmoins à parcourir. Les discussions sur la convention collective s'éternisent ainsi sans susciter de forte mobilisation. Inquiets, les employeurs et la direction du port s'efforcent de reprendre la main. Les CRS qui, de 1950 à 1959, n'avaient cessé de stationner sur les quais, y réapparaissent en 1962. Plus nombreux et à l'offensive, les militants de la CGT n'hésitent plus, cependant, à se rendre sur les chantiers pour imposer l'embauche prioritaire des dockers professionnels et de syndicalistes auparavant à l'index. Les figures : itinéraires de briseurs de grève Le procès des trois inculpés des événements du 16 mars 1966 a lieu, en novembre, devant la 7 e chambre du tribunal correctionnel de Marseille. Les avocats de la défense plaident ensemble la légitime défense de leurs clients et réclament leur relaxe, mais ceux de Marsily contestent sa participation aux violences. Face aux juges, le recruteur pose à « l'homme d'affaires classique » et admet fournir « de la main-d'oeuvre occasionnelle aux sociétés de manutention qui [le] lui demandent, notamment dans les périodes de conflits sociaux » 7 . Ses adjoints n'ont pas la même aisance. Le 26, les juges suivent le réquisitoire du procureur et prononcent des peines de prison ferme. Ils disjoignent néanmoins le cas de Marcily qui, relaxé pour les faits de violences avec arme et de complicité de violences, écope de 6 mois pour port d'arme et de munitions. François Santiago et Didier Gomez, reconnus coupables de coups et blessures, sont condamnés à 8 mois. Sur le moment, les militants ne cachent pas leur insatisfaction et envisagent d'interjeter en appel. La Marseillaise estime « regrettable » que Marsily, le « marchand d'hommes », soit exempt des réparations que Gomez et Santiago devront verser aux dockers. A des degrés certes très divers, les trois hommes que l'affaire du 16 mars expose soudain au plein jour, n'étaient pas totalement inconnus. François Santiago et Didier Gomez, nés respectivement en 1939 à Rahel (Corse) et 1937 à Oran, sont beaux-frères et résident dans le même « camp » dit du Grand Arenas, une cité de transit ouverte à la Libération et qui, depuis cette date, accueille tant bien que mal des populations en attente de retour ou de départ, dont, récemment, des rapatriés d'Algérie. Titulaire d'une carte professionnelle, Santiago est officiellement conducteur d'engins, mais seconde volontiers Marsily. En février 1964, son nom apparaît dans un tract diffusé dans le quartier où il vit par « un groupe de dockers » 8 . Appel à la « solidarité morale » envers les travailleurs du port en lutte pour leurs salaires, de meilleures conditions de travail et de vie, le document met au ban du quartier Santiago et un autre ouvrier accusés de trahir « leurs frères de misère » et qui, par leur « zèle » seraient « encore plus rétrogrades que les patrons acconiers ». Après leur séjour en prison, Gomez et Santiago plongeront dans l'anonymat. Il en ira de même pour Augustin Marsily, dont la notoriété antérieure à 1966 dépassait de loin celle de ses coaccusés et, surtout, remontait plus haut dans le temps, révélant par là même les enjeux portuaires au plus fort de la guerre froide. Les collusions de la guerre froide voies d'infiltration du monde portuaire par le grand banditisme échappent à la sphère d'intervention syndicale. Au hasard des règlements de comptes du Milieu, la volumineuse rubrique locale des faits divers renvoie de temps à autre vers les quais. La disparition soudaine, en janvier 2002, du dirigeant de Marseille Manutention, l'une des principales entreprise du port, ne passe pas inaperçue. Les investigations dans le passé d'Edmond Goubert, dit « Monmon », ancien cadre d'Intramar entré sur le port à 14 ans comme apprenti-docker, révèlent une belle promotion sociale. Elles font également remonter en surface quelques démêlés judiciaires : une condamnation à 3 ans de prison pour trafic de cigarettes en 1991 avec la Camorra et un nonlieu plus récent dans une affaire de réseau international de stupéfiants 11 . Le chef d'entreprise fréquentait Jacky Imbert, dit « le Mat ». Le PDG d'une importante société de gardiennage du port, Ernest Vittiglio, dit « Neness l'Elégant », victime d'une série d'explosions et dont le fils a été retrouvé « suicidé » d'une balle de 6.35, accusait publiquement « Monmon » d'avoir voulu le racketter au profit d'un troisième homme, Jean-Luc Barresi, marchand d'hommes à sa manière en sa qualité d'agent de joueurs de football, et frère d'un braqueur arrêté après des années de cavale. Disparition mystérieuse, suicide incertain, soupçons de trafics et de racket, indices de connexions entre entrepreneurs et truands…, les porosités portuaires n'en finissent pas de nourrir un imaginaire de roman noir. 11 Le Parisien libéré du 27/1/2002 ; Libération du 8/3/2002.

La Marseillaise du 17 mars 1966.

Rapport de l'ingénieur en chef, le 17 mars 1966. CAC 870150, art. 193.

L'Avenir des ports de novembre 1966.

Tract collecté le 24/2/1964. CAC 870150 art. 192.

L'