V Chatellier
email: vincent.chatellier@inrae.fr

Review: International trade in animal products and the place of the European Union: main trends over the last 20 years

Keywords: Globalisation, Competitiveness, Trade agreements, Dairy products, meat Implications

This article presents an analysis of the evolution of international trade in animal products over the period 2000 to 2018, using customs data from the "BACI" database.

Firstly, this article presents the evolution of global trade in animal products for the top five exporting countries (in decreasing order: the European Union (EU), the United States, New Zealand, Brazil and Australia) and then for the two largest importers (China and Japan). It then looks at the world trade situation for four major animal products: poultry meat, pigmeat, beef and dairy products. Animal products account for 16% of world agro-food trade; this rate has remained fairly stable throughout the period. The growing imbalance between supply and demand for animal products in Asian countries, particularly in China, is stimulating international trade to the benefit of the major exporting countries. The EU is the world's leading exporter of animal products (with 21% of the total in 2018) and the fourth importer (with 6% of the total).

It is in surplus in dairy products and pigmeat, but in deficit (in value) in beef and poultry meat. Dairy products, which are exported by very few countries (mainly the EU, New Zealand and the United States), account for almost a third of all trade in animal

Introduction

International trade in agri-food goods has grown significantly in the past fifty years, both in volume and value [START_REF] Pouch | Le commerce international de produits agricoles et ses rivalités permanentes[END_REF]World Trade Organization, 2020).

Technological innovations, the dissemination of knowledge and the considerable progress made in terms of infrastructure, logistics and storage conditions have favoured this development, in a context characterised by the increasing openness of economies (Thompson-Lipponen and Greenville, 2019), the development of transnational firms and a demographic boom (Centre d'Etudes et de Prospective, 2017 ;United Nations, 2019). While world trade in agro-food goods is developing over the long term, there have been periods when trade has declined, such as during the 2009 financial crisis or the more recent Covid19 crisis. In 2020, World Trade Organization experts estimate that world trade in goods could drop from 13% (most optimistic scenario) to 32% (most pessimistic scenario), while the decline should be smaller for agri-food goods, which are basic necessities.

In 2018, agricultural and agri-food products will account for 8% of world merchandise trade. This relative share has fallen sharply over the decades due to a more rapid development of trade in other sectors. In constant currency, world exports of agro-food products have increased sevenfold in 50 years, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 3.8% [START_REF] Claquin | La mondialisation par le commerce des produits alimentaires : tendances structurelles et exploration prospective[END_REF]. The increase in agri-food trade allowed to provide ever more consumers with more abundant, more varied and often less expensive food.

Over time, trade has evolved towards more elaborate, more processed products whose prices are higher than the corresponding raw products.

The objective of this article is to look at the main trends at work in the international trade of animal products, in terms of imports, exports and balance of trade. The term "animal products" here covers all animal species and all products (raw and processed) derived from them (meat, milk and all other animal products). This analysis is based on statistical data from customs. More precisely, these data issue from the "BACI" database developed by the CEPII (Centre français d'étude et de recherche en économie internationale -CEPII), based on primary data from the COMTRADE database produced by the United Nations Statistics Division (Centre français d'étude et de recherche en économie internationale, 2010). The data cover the period 2000 to 2018 (a long-term trajectories). As the last available year is 2018, they do not, however, allow to analyse the effects of the current coronavirus crisis. This article is structured in two parts. The first part presents the evolution of international trade in animal products, focusing on the case of the top five exporting countries (European Union -EU -, the United States, New Zealand, Brazil, Australia) and the top two importing countries (China and Japan). Statistical elements are provided in the tables and figures for other countries, but due to lack of space, these cannot be analysed specifically. The seven selected countries account for 67% of world exports of animal products and 44% of world imports. The second part presents a synthetic analysis of the main trade trajectories in four sectors, namely poultry meat, pigmeat, beef and dairy products.

The main countries contributing to world trade in animal products

At the international level, and in a fairly stable manner throughout the period studied (2000 to 2018), animal products accounted for 16% of total agri-food trade. In the following analysis, trade with all countries is considered, excluding intra-EU trade. This weight varies from one country to another depending mainly on the characteristics of the natural environment (cultivable or not) and the productive orientation of the territories. It reaches particularly high levels in New Zealand (69%), Uruguay (68%) and Australia (44%). Closer to the world average in the EU (23%), Brazil (19%) and the United States (19%), it is much lower in other countries such as China (10%), Russia (4%) and Africa (3%).

International trade in animal products has risen from €56 billion in 2000 to €152 billion in 2018 (in current currency), with an acceleration since 2009. To facilitate the appropriation of the results and limit the amount of information, the data for the period 2010 to 2018 are presented in three aggregates in the following analysis: the annual average for the period 2000 to 2009; the annual average for the period 2010-2017 (i.e. just after the financial crisis of 2009); the latest available data for 2018. Thus, between the average of 2000-09 and 2018, world trade in animal products has increased 2.4 times. This coefficient is close for dairy products, pigmeat and poultry meat; it is higher for eggs (2.9) and beef (2.7) and lower for live sheep/goats (1.6) and live pigs (0.9).

World trade in animal products is dominated by a few large private multinational companies or very large cooperatives. These well-known companies include JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill, Dairy Farmers of America, Smithfied, Fonterra, Nestlé, Lactalis, Arla, Campina-Friesland, Yili, Danish Crown, Vion, Saputo, Brazilian Meat Producers or Marfrig.

Trade in animal products is increasingly oriented towards elaborated, transformed and assembled products (finished products for consumers or ingredient products for the agro-food industries). Products are increasingly "cracked" and reassembled, which gives rise to complex trade flows. This cracking of products concerns both milk (separation of the different components), meat (separation and boning of parts) and eggs. As an illustration of this expansion of the processed meat trade, note the growing share now taken by of "individual ready meals" with animal ingredients, made possible by the wide adoption of Individual Quick Freezing technology. An advantages of this method is that the freezing process takes only a few minutes. This prevents the formation of large ice crystals in the product's cells, which can destroy the membrane structures at the molecular level. The product thus keep its shape, colour, smell and taste after defrosting.

In 2018, international trade in animal products (in value) is composed of 52% meat, 32% dairy products, 5% live animals and 11% other animal products (Figure 1).

Although trade in live animals is frequent between neighbouring countries, it remains more complex to organise over long distances and, moreover, gives rise to some criticism from many citizens who are increasingly concerned about animal welfare.

World trade in animal products is geographically concentrated. The top ten exporting countries will account for 80% of exports in 2018. These are, in descending order, the EU (22% of the world total), the United States (15%), New Zealand (10%), Brazil (9%), Australia (8%), Canada (4%), China (4%), Thailand (3%), India (3%) and Argentina (2%). The top ten importing countries account for 61% of world imports. In 2018, China will be the largest importer (17% of the total), followed by Japan (9%), the United States (9%), the EU (6%), South Korea (4%) and Mexico (4%). The next five countries, Vietnam, Russia, Canada, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, each account for around 3% of world imports. An analysis of the trade trajectories for the main countries involved in exports and imports of animal products is carried out below.

The European Union

The EU is the world's leading exporter of animal products (€32.4 billion in 2018, i.e. 23% of total agri-food exports). Although European agriculture is less endowed in agricultural surface area (178 million hectares, 60% of which is arable land) than other studied countries (United States, Brazil, etc.), yields per hectare are higher due to a high agronomic potential and an often favourable climate. Livestock productions, which are unevenly distributed among member states [START_REF] Roguet | Spécialisation territoriale et concentration des productions animales européennes[END_REF], account for about 40% of final agricultural production in the EU. It is mainly the result of smaller family farms than in most other competitor countries. Within the EU, however, production models are very heterogeneous from one area to another [START_REF] Hercule | Une typologie pour représenter la diversité des territoires d'élevage en Europe[END_REF], depending on land availability (which requires more or less intensification), relief (in some countries mountain areas contribute significantly to livestock farming activities), the agronomic potential of the soils (arable or not), the availability of labour, or economic organisation (more or less vertical integration). The development of European livestock activities has long been encouraged by the Common Agricultural Policy. Although successive reforms have profoundly modified the way in which public support is allocated to the agricultural sector (gradual convergence of European prices on world prices, abandonment of export refunds, limitation of recourse to public storage, etc.), subsidies still represent today a significant part of the income of very large number of European livestock farmers [START_REF] Guyomard | Quelle politique agricole commune demain ? Editions Quae[END_REF]. Nevertheless, for European farms specializing in monogastric production, the level of subsidies is historically much lower than for dairy and beef farms.

The EU was in surplus in several animal products since the end of the 1970s, with the notable exception of sheepmeat. The EU is currently the world leader in terms of trade balance in animal products, with €23 billion in 2018 compared to €6.5 billion in 2000-09 (Table 1). This positive development is due to a combination of several factors: a levelling off of domestic consumption of animal proteins; a significant improvement in the balance in the dairy (particularly since the end of milk quotas in 2015, which has led to an increase in European milk production) and pigmeat sectors (African swine fever has led to a rapid increase in pigmeat imports by China); several importing countries, including Japan, trust in the quality and food safety of European products.

In 2018, the EU is in surplus in dairy products (€15.4 billion) and pigmeat (€7.2 billion), but in deficit in beef (-€807 million) and poultry meat (-€497 million). However, this EU trade surplus in animal products is made possible by significant imports of plant proteins, mainly from the American continent (Brazil and the United States). Thus, in 2018, for example, European imports amount to €6.1 billion for soya meal and €4.8 billion for soya beans.

Exports account for around 12% of European milk production, 14% of pigmeat, 10% of poultry meat and 5% of beef (European Commission, 2019). EU exports of animal products are mainly dairy products (52% of the total in 2018) and pigmeat (22%).

Exports of poultry meat (5%), live cattle (4%) and beef (4%) are less developed, mainly due to higher prices than those of competitors. The evolution of the parity between the different currencies has an impact on the EU's ability to market (or not) its products internationally. For example, the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso have fallen against the Euro. Both countries have been undergoing continuous currency devaluations for ten years, giving them an export advantage. On the other hand, the euro to US dollar has changed significantly over the period, from 0.86 in January 2002, to 1.57 in July 2008, 1.07 in January 2017 and 1.21 in December 2020.

A little over two thirds of EU exports in animal products are destined to no more 15 countries. China has become the EU's biggest customer (European Commission, 2016), with imports increasing tenfold between 2000-09 and 2018 (€7.8 billion). Thus, this country alone will account for 24% of EU exports in animal products in 2018. This rate is 31% for pigmeat, 26% for dairy products, 12% for poultry meat and 17% for beef. The EU will provide 30% of China's supplies (by value) of animal products in 2018, compared with 22% in the period 2000-09. Far behind China, the United States are the EU's second largest customer in terms of animal products, accounting for 8% of total European exports. From €1.4 billion between 2000-09, they rose to €2.5 billion in 2018, of which 55% were dairy products and 23% pigmeat. Japan ranks third (7% of EU exports) due mainly to its imports of pigmeat (65% of purchases) and dairy products (26%). Behind this top trio, the following countries are Switzerland, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Algeria, the Philippines and Australia. Russia, which has long occupied an important place in European exports, is now ranking behind these countries [START_REF] Chatellier | Les relations commerciales agroalimentaires de la Russie avec l'UE, l'embargo russe et les productions animales[END_REF][START_REF] Smutka | Policy impacts on the EU-Russian trade performance: the case of agri-food[END_REF][START_REF] Cheptea | Russian food embargo and the lost trade[END_REF].

EU imports of animal products increased slightly over the under review period. Indeed, they rose from €7.2 billion in 2000-09 to €9.4 billion in 2018. Several factors explain this evolution: the demographic stability of the EU; the decline in individual consumption of animal proteins for a large number of Europeans; the recent development of animal productions in several Member States, especially Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland (but not France); and, the EU's quality import requirements (health and environmental standards). A large proportion of European imports of animal products are subject to zero or reduced duty import quotas under the World Trade Organization agreements. They mainly concern poultry meat (23% of the total in 2018, 47% from Thailand and 30% from Brazil) and beef (21% of the total, 29% from Brazil, 22% from Argentina and 16% from Uruguay). Imports of dairy products are modest (16% of the total from Switzerland (63%) and New Zealand (11%)) and account for about 1% of domestic consumption. While imports are practically nil in the pig sector, they account for about 5% of domestic consumption of poultry and pig meat and almost 20% of sheep meat. For the latter, 85% is purchased from New Zealand and 10% from Australia.

The United States

With an agricultural area more than twice that of the EU (408 million hectares, including 155 million hectares of arable land), the US are the world leader in terms of agricultural production. In addition to grain maize and soya, they are heavily involved in poultry, beef and milk production (USDA-a, 2020). More than in other competitor countries, including Australia, New Zealand and Brazil, US livestock productions benefit from budgetary support through the Farm Bill [START_REF] Winders | The global context of the US farm bill in 2018: world markets, instability and policy preferences in agriculture[END_REF]. In terms of trade, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which came into force in 1994, has favoured trade between the three signatory countries of the United States, Mexico and Canada.

US exports of animal products amount to €23.5 billion in 2018 (second in the world behind the EU), or 17% of agri-food exports. They are fairly balanced between the different production sectors: 29% for beef, 24% for pork, 20% for dairy products and 15% for poultry meat. In proportion to domestic production, exports represent 10% of milk, 12% of beef, 17% of poultry meat and 21% of pig meat. Exports go first to the other two NAFTA member states (20% to Mexico and 13% to Canada), then to Japan (15%), China (11%) and South Korea (10%). Note that it is still too early to measure how the Phase One Deal (USDA-b, 2020) could have an impact on future US exports of animal products to China [START_REF] Jean | Phase One Deal. Une trêve qui crée plus de problèmes qu'elle n'en résout[END_REF].

The United States rank third in the world, behind China and Japan, in imports of animal products (€14.1 billion in 2018). These mainly come from Canada (27%), the EU (18%) and Mexico (14%). They mainly concern beef and veal (35%, of which 0.7% from the EU), dairy products (20%, of which 49% from the EU) and pigmeat (10%, of which 39% from the EU).

Overall, the United States record a positive trade balance in animal products (€9.4 billion in 2018), thanks mainly to bilateral relations with Japan (+€3.4 billion), Mexico (+€2.6 billion) and China (+€2.3 billion). This positive balance is mainly due to the pork (+€4.1 billion) and poultry (+€3.0 billion) sectors. The situation is also positive in beef and veal (+€1.9 billion) and in the dairy sector (+€1.9 billion), where cross-flows between imports and exports are significant (Table 2).

The EU enjoys a positive balance with the United States in terms of animal products (€1.8 billion in 2018 compared with €900 million over the 2000-09 period). This surplus is mainly due to dairy products (€1.3 billion, mainly cheeses) and pigmeat (€570 million). The EU's trade relations with the United States have been the subject of negotiations for many years, following on from the project for a "transatlantic trade and investment partnership". This draft free trade agreement, whose negotiations were suspended at the end of 2016 following opposition from President Donald Trump, aims to develop a common market by tackling the obstacles, both tariff and non-tariff, that exist between the two partners. It mainly aims to reduce customs duties, to further harmonise regulatory standards between the two partners and to strengthen cooperation in the formulation of international standards. In April 2019, the EU Council instructed the European Commission to relaunch negotiations for a new trade agreement with the United States, despite France's opposition. The new agreement, if concluded, would, however, be more limited than Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership was intended to be, as it would not apply to agricultural products or government procurement. However, the US has announced that it wants agriculture to be included in the agreement [START_REF] Johnson | US-EU trade agreement negotiations: trade in food and agricultural products -R46241[END_REF].

New Zealand

Despite a particularly small agricultural area (11.6 million hectares), New Zealand occupies an important place in the international trade of animal products. In this country, where grassland occupies almost 90% of the agricultural surface area, agricultural production is dominated by the dairy and sheep sectors. Because of a small domestic market (4.7 million inhabitants) and thanks to a political and economic organisation that has long been outward-looking, the country ranks second in the world in terms of trade balance for animal products: €14.4 billion in 2018, with a doubling of this amount in current currency compared to the period 2000-09. New Zealand's exports in animal products (€15 billion in 2018), which represent 70% of agri-food exports, are 65% dairy products, 14% beef (including cull dairy cows, frozen raw material for mince, calves, etc.) and 15% sheep meat. New Zealand's main customers for livestock products are China (31% of the total in 2018), the United States (10%), the EU (8%), Australia (6%) and Japan (4%). Exports to China have increased considerably, from €434 million in 2000-09 to €4.7 billion in 2018.

New Zealand exports more than 90% of its domestic milk production and 80% of its beef production. Boosted by increased purchases from China, dairy exports are mainly whole milk powder and butter, while cheese exports are more reduced, as are exports of infant milk powder, offering development opportunities for the EU. New Zealand is the world's largest exporter of dairy products in volume (in milk equivalent) and second in value (behind the EU). This position is due to several factors: an abundance of highquality grassland; abundant water resources; a high concentration of industrial facilities, with a single company (the Fonterra cooperative) providing most of the marketing; and the willingness of political and economic players to boost exports. After a very strong growth in milk production between 2000 and 2015, a slowdown in the dynamics of supply has however been observed since then, in a societal context where the damage caused to the environment by dairy farming (high use of irrigation water, levels of fertilisation, etc.), particularly in the South Island, has led to local disputes (Institut de l'Elevage, 2017; Ratnayake, 2019). New Zealand's imports in animal products are very low (€588 million in 2018). Its main suppliers are the EU (37%), Australia (27%) and the United States (18%). New Zealand is a serious competitor to the EU in the international market, but trade relations between the two areas are unbalanced (European Commission, 2020-a). Indeed, New Zealand represents 0.6% of the EU's export for animal products, but 14% of its import.

However, the EU's deficit with New Zealand (-€1.1 billion in 2018, of which -€882 million for sheepmeat) is less than in the past (-€1.3 billion in 2000-09) for two reasons: this country has benefited from trade opportunities following the opening of the Chinese market; the EU's needs in sheepmeat are decreasing in parallel with the decline in consumption. In this context, it is not certain that the signing of a free trade agreement between the EU and New Zealand (negotiations started in June 2018) will lead to profound changes in these trade flows; the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU will, however, have an influence insofar as this country has historically had privileged relations with New Zealand [START_REF] Saunders | The impacts of changes in agricultural policies in the United Kingdom on trade and agriculture especially in New Zealand -the Swiss Option[END_REF].

Brazil

Thanks to its 240 million hectares of usable agricultural area and the efforts made to modernise its agri-food complex, Brazil is one of the world's leading agricultural producers [START_REF] Buainain | Agricultural development in Brazil. The rise of a global agro-food power[END_REF]. The country stands out for its performance in the production of sugar, orange juice, soya, ethanol, but also beef (Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, 2020) and poultry meat (OECD-FAO, 2015). This situation should not obscure the existence of controversies concerning the duality of the forms of agriculture prevailing in this country (farms dedicated to export versus small family structures oriented towards the domestic market); the strong inequalities in access to land; the lack of transport infrastructures in the remote areas (notably behind the colonisation front in the North West part of the country) ; the high level of debt in the sector; the environmental problems caused by deforestation, the massive use of mineral fertilisers, soil erosion and greenhouse gas emissions [START_REF] Sabourin | L'agriculture brésilienne en débat : évolutions récentes, controverses et politiques publiques[END_REF]).

Brazil's exports of animal products amount to €13.5 billion in 2018, or 19% of total agrifood exports. They are dominated by poultry meat (41%), beef (40%) and, far behind, pork (8%). Brazil has a small deficit in dairy products (-€450 million). It exports the equivalent of 31% of its poultry meat production, 23% of its pigmeat production and 20% of its beef production. Brazil's main clients in animal products are China (31% of the total in 2018), the EU (10%), Saudi Arabia (6%), Japan (4%), the United Arab Emirates (4%) and Egypt (4%). The United States, although less distant geographically, only account for 3% of Brazilian exports. Indeed, some sanitary (nontariffs) barriers for Brazilian exports to the US, notably for beef are still in place. After In summer 2019 a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur was signed after 20 years of negotiations. The agreement, which is now the subject of many disputes within the EU, still needs to be ratified by each EU Member State and the European Parliament before it can be implemented. Many consider that the impact of further liberalisation with Brazil would be unfavourable to European livestock production and damaging to the environment [START_REF] Ambec | Dispositions et effets potentiels de la partie commerciale de l'Accord d'Association entre l'UE et le Mercosur en matière de développement durable[END_REF].

Australia

Scarcely populated (24 million inhabitants), but richly endowed with land (412 million hectares, of which "only" 48 million are arable), Australia is a country with a large surplus in animal products (€10.6 billion, mainly beef and sheep meat). As evidenced by its positions in the World Trade Organization negotiations, Australia has long been a proponent of trade liberalisation. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates, government support for Australian farms is ten times lower than for European farms (OECD, 2020). Access to the Australian market is not always straightforward due to geographic distance and the existence of certain SPS non-tariff barriers.

Australia's exports in animal products amount to €12.6 billion in 2018 (fifth in the world), or 45% of the country's agri-food exports. They doubled between 2000-09 and 2018 and mainly concern beef and veal (48%), sheep and goat meat (20%) and dairy products (17%). They are mainly destined for China (21%), Japan (17%), the United States (15%), South Korea (9%) and Indonesia (6%). Australia's imports in animal products are very limited (€2 billion in 2018). They mainly concern dairy products (62% of the total) and pig meat (23%). Three supplier countries provide the bulk of its supplies: New Zealand (42%), the EU (33%) and the United States (16%). Thus, Australia benefits from a positive trade balance in animal products (€10.6 billion in 2018). It is positive with China (+€2.7 billion), Japan (+€2.1 billion), the United States (+€1.5 billion) and South Korea (€1.1 billion), but negative with New Zealand (-€667 million) and the EU (-€342 million).

Australia's deficit with the EU is true for dairy products (-€346 million) and pigmeat (-€245 million), but the situation is the opposite for beef (+€161 million) and sheepmeat (+€102 million). Trade relations between these two areas could increase as a result of the negotiations launched since June 2018 to reach a global trade agreement (Drake- [START_REF] Drake-Brockman | Potential beneficts of an Australian-EU free trade agreement: key issues and options[END_REF].

China

China has become the country with the world's largest deficit in agri-food goods (-€54.9 billion in 2018), ahead of Japan (-€49.5 billion). In animal products, the balance has sharply deteriorated from -€1.1 billion in 2000-09 to -€20.7 billion in 2018. This deficit is mainly due to dairy products (-€9.4 billion) and pigmeat (-€3 billion). In addition to this deficit in animal products, China is also the world's largest importer of vegetable proteins, particularly soya, from the American continent, to feed domestic animals [START_REF] Gale | Interdependence of China, United States and Brazil in Soybean Trade[END_REF]). China's trade development in the agro-food sector must be seen in the light of the country's low availability of agricultural land (9% of the world's arable land for 20% of the population); the production difficulties (low water resources, limited yields, rapid restructuring of small farms, etc.); the trade-off sometimes given to crop production, including rice, over animal production in land use; the mistrust of many Chinese consumers towards local products, mainly following the melamine milk crisis in 2008; and, of course, the rapid growth in domestic needs linked to a gradual change in diet, especially in the large cities. The consumption of meat by a Chinese has quadrupled since the early 1980s and that of dairy products has increased all the more rapidly as the level remains modest (40 kg per inhabitant per year compared with 280 kg for Europeans [START_REF] Chaumet | La Chine au risque de la dépendance alimentaire[END_REF]. Despite a high level of production (25% of world meat production, but only 5% of milk production), China's exports of animal products have been low and relatively stable in recent years. They reach €6 billion in 2018, i.e. about five times less than those of the EU. Exports mainly concern poultry meat and are primarily destined for neighbouring Asian countries (Japan, Vietnam).

China has become the world's largest importer of animal products (18% of the world total). After representing an annual average of €3.6 billion over the period 2000-09, Chinese imports have increased considerably to reach €26.8 billion in 2018. Imports mainly concern dairy products (36%), beef (26%), pigmeat (15%) and poultry meat (7%). Imports represent a third of domestic production in milk, 20% in beef and only 4% in pig meat.

The EU is China's leading supplier of animal products, accounting for 29% of its imports in 2018. Mainly an exporter of dairy products and pigmeat, it is ahead of Brazil, New Zealand and the United States. While the Chinese market represents an opportunity for many companies seeking new outlets, it must also be considered that this market does not offer all the guarantees of stability. Uncertainties about the level of domestic supply, the signing of more or less advantageous bilateral agreements with other competitor countries, changes in health regulations, exchange rate variability, and political tensions between countries are all factors that can alter the expected balances [START_REF] Trégaro | Marché chinois : opportunités et risques pour les entreprises agroalimentaires européennes[END_REF].

Japan

With a small territory of 4.5 million hectares of agricultural land for 127 million people, Japan is the world's fourth-largest importer of agri-food products. Despite strong government support and the implementation of agricultural policy reforms (OECD, 2009), Japanese agriculture can only cover 40 per cent of the country's food needs (Japan ministry of international affairs and communications, 2019).

In animal products, Japan's exports are marginal (€573 million in 2018); they mainly concern dairy products and beef destined mainly for neighbouring Asian countries. Imports, on the other hand, are very high (€14.8 billion), by far the highest in the world in proportion to population. The imported volumes represent around 175% of domestic production in beef, 115% in pork, 55% in poultry and 30% in milk and dairy products.

These imports come mainly from the United States (25%), the EU (15%), Australia (14%) and Thailand (12%).

Japan's deficit in animal products reaches €13.5 billion in 2018, including €4.3 billion of pigmeat, €3.5 billion of beef, €2.9 billion of poultry meat and €1.5 billion of milk and dairy products. Japan's deficit in animal products has hardly increased over the recent period. Not only is the Japanese population today decreasing, but the individual level of consumption is now more stable.

European exports to the Japanese market mainly concern pigmeat (33% of the country's imports) and dairy products (32%). The EU's trade relations with Japan are set to strengthen following the entry into force of the Economic Partnership Agreement (European Commission, 2018). The agreement removes the vast majority of duties paid by EU companies exporting to Japan and a number of long-standing regulatory barriers. For the dairy sector, the agreement envisages the removal of duties on many cheeses such as Gouda and Cheddar (currently set at 29%). For pigmeat, trade will be duty-free for processed meats, while fresh meat will be almost exempt. The agreement also provides for the protection of more than 200 quality European agricultural products (recognition of geographical indications) on the Japanese market.

International trade in several animal sectors

After an analysis focusing on the situation of the main countries involved in international trade in animal products, this second part looks at the markets situation of the following four productions: poultry meat; pork; beef and dairy products.

Poultry meat

Poultry meat is today the first meat consumed and produced in the world. According to OECD and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistics, global production of poultry meat is on average 125 million tonnes annually over the three-year period 2017-19. The main producing countries are the USA (17.4% of world production in 2017-19), China (16.3%), Brazil (10.9%), the EU (12.0%) and Russia (3.9%).

According to the prospective work carried out by these same international organisations, the world supply of poultry meat is expected to increase by 20.3 million tonnes (+16%) between 2017-19 and 2029(OECD-FAO, 2020).

Poultry is enjoying a much higher annual growth rate in consumption than other meats for several reasons: i) the price paid by consumers is lower because of the zootechnical performance obtained in this sector (a good consumption index); ii) the nutritional quality of this (lean) meat is recognised; iii) this meat does not suffer from the religious bans to which pigmeat (Islam and Judaism) or beef (India) are subject; iv) as production is less directly linked to the land than other productions (cattle and sheep), it is easier to develop it near urban areas with strong demographic growth; v) Moreover, poultry is easier to develop vs other animal productions due to the "technological packages" sold by some global companies to any local entrepreneur.

In 2018, international trade (excluding intra-EU) in poultry meat accounts for 11% of world production. It has risen from €8.4 billion in 2000-09 to €19.1 billion in 2018 (including 50% of frozen chicken pieces, 24% of preparations and 12% of frozen whole chickens). The share of whole chickens in chicken exports is steadily declining.

As the third largest producer, Brazil is the leading exporter, with 30% of international flows expressed in value in 2018. Brazilian exports, which increased by €2.8 billion between 2000-09 and 2018 (Figure 2), are destined for 17% to China (in 2018), 12% to the EU, 12% to Saudi Arabia and 11% to Japan. This development of exports is based on cost competitiveness and the adaptation of supply to the specific demands of customers. With 18% of world exports by value, the United States rank second. US products, which have a lower unit value than in Brazil, are marketed first in Mexico (21% of exports in 2018, with low added value products), China (12%) and Canada (10%). With 16% of world exports, including a large share of boneless cuts and cooked meats, Thailand is ahead of China (10%) and the EU (9%).

The main importers of poultry meat are Japan (16% of world imports by value in 2018), the EU (11%), China (10%), Saudi Arabia (5%), Mexico (5%) and the United Arab Emirates (3%). Purchases are increasing in all the main purchasing countries. Thailand is Japan's preferred supplier (51% of its supplies) ahead of China (26%) and Brazil (20%). In China, imports come mainly from Brazil (50%) and the United States (21%).

With the end of export refunds in 2013, European exports to Middle Eastern countries have become more difficult in the face of Brazilian competition. In volume terms, nearly 80% of poultry meat imports come from developing countries.

Pork meat

World pigmeat production represents 116 million tonnes on average per year over the three-year period 2017-19. The main producing countries are China (43.2%), far ahead of the EU (20.5%), the USA (10.1%), Brazil (3.4%), Russia (3.2%), Vietnam (3.1%), and Canada (1.8%). According to the prospective work of the OECD-FAO, world supply should increase by 11.1 million tonnes (+9%) between 2017-19 and 2029.

International trade (excluding intra-EU) in pigmeat accounts for 7% of world production.

Exports of pigmeat (10.6 million tce in 2018) have increased throughout the studied period, both in volume (+5.1 million tce between 2000-09 and 2018) and in value (Figure 3). In 2018, the top three exporters of pigmeat are the EU (38% of the value), the United States (29%) and Canada (13%). These three countries, which together account for 80% of world exports, are followed far behind by Brazil (6%), China (4%) and Mexico (3%). The competitive games between the three leading countries do not depend solely on the differences in production costs at the breeding and processing industry stage. They are also influenced by the internal health situation, bilateral agreements between countries and the evolution of the parity between the euro and the dollar. Moreover, their client countries are not always the same. Thus, for example, the United States' leading customer for pork meat is Japan (25% of exports by value in 2018), while China is in first place in the case of the EU (31% of exports by value in 2018) and the United States in the case of Canada (38%). Despite its status as the world's largest pigmeat producer, China is also the second largest importer, with 20% of world imports by value in 2018; this rate is expected to increase in 2019-2020 due to the decline in livestock numbers induced by African swine fever (Mason-D 'Croz, 2020). Suppliers to this strategic market are the EU (58% of the total in value), the USA (14%), Brazil (13%) and Canada (9%). Between 2000-09 and 2018, Chinese imports of pigmeat increased considerably (+€3.4 billion), including in relation to the leading importing country, Japan (23% of world imports in 2018 and +€1.4 billion between the two periods). South Korea, the United States and Mexico are also well placed in the hierarchy of importing countries (between 6% and 8% of world imports for each country); EU imports of pigmeat are less significant. The EU enforces strict sanitary barriers for pig meat imports from third countries particularly in relation to Classical Swine Fever status.

Beef and veal

World beef production, which represents nearly 70 million tonnes in 2017-2019 (OECD-FAO, 2020), is expected to increase by 6.3 million tonnes by 2029. The main producing countries are the United States (16.8%), ahead of Brazil (13.1%), the EU (11.7%), China (9.3%), Argentina (4.1%), India (3.7%), Australia (3.7%) and Mexico (2.8%).

International trade (excluding intra-EU) in beef accounts for about 13% of world production (Institut de l'Elevage, 2020-a). Beef and veal is the leading meat traded in value terms (€34.9 billion), but second in volume behind poultry meat and ahead of pork. International trade in beef and veal, which grew strongly between 2000-09 and 2018 (+4.3 million tce), is influenced by a range of factors, including economic issues (oil prices, growth rates in importing countries, currency devaluation, etc.) or health issues (foot-and-mouth disease, bovine spongiform encephalopathy). The sudden closure of the Japanese market to American exports in 2002-03 is an example often cited to evoke this sensitivity [START_REF] Chatellier | Les échanges de bovins vivants et de viande bovine dans le monde et dans l'UE[END_REF].

The international trade in beef and veal is 73% (in value terms) frozen meat, 23% fresh and chilled meat and 4% processed meat. It is dominated in exports by four countries which together account for around two thirds of world exports (Figure 4). These are Brazil (18% of volumes and 16% of value in 2018), India (14% and 9% respectively), Australia (16% and 17%) and the United States (14% and 20%). The next countries are New Zealand (6% of volumes), Argentina (6%), the EU (5%), Canada (5%), Uruguay (5%), Paraguay (4%) and Mexico (3%). The production models adopted in the four leading countries differ from one to another (in terms of breeds, rations, farm structuring, etc.) and the types of products produced by the cattle industry are not identical either, with varying selling prices. The development of Indian beef exports is one of the most striking elements of recent years [START_REF] Landes | From where the Buffalo roam: India's beef exports[END_REF]. In this country where per capita consumption of beef is very low (less than 2 kg per year) and where milk production is increasing rapidly, exports concern products sold at low prices and mainly destined for Asian countries, including Vietnam and China. Note that India only exports beef from male buffaloes. Strict religious edicts against slaughtering of bos taurus indicus have become stricter since the Bharatiya Janata Party came to power, with attacks reported against the people (mainly Muslims and lower casts) involved in the beef industry. This is as much a constraint on the development of buffalo meat export from India, as are sanitary status.

The main importers of beef and veal are China (21% of world imports by volume in 2018), the United States (12%), Vietnam (9%), Japan (8%), South Korea (6%) and Russia (5%). Vietnam is a rather atypical importing country insofar as part of its imports correspond to products that are then reshipped to the Chinese market. With 3% of world imports, the EU imports less beef than South Korea or Egypt. In recent years, it is mainly Asian countries, especially China (+1.6 million tce of imports between 2000-09 and 2018) and Vietnam, which have contributed to the growth in international trade.

Milk and dairy products

World milk production of all species has increased considerably over the decades, from 344 billion litres in 1961 to 839 billion litres in 2017-19 (Food andAgriculture Organization, 2020). This increase is largely due to the increase in animal numbers, progress in animal genetics and improved breeding techniques. The main producing countries are India (21.9% of volumes in 2017-19), the EU (19.9%), the USA (11.7%), Pakistan (5.4%) and China (4.1%). With 2.6% of world milk production, New Zealand's contribution to international trade is very significant (26% by volume).

International trade (excluding intra-EU) in dairy products amounts to 72 million tonnes in milk equivalent in 2018. This volume, which is equivalent to 8% of world milk production, is growing at an average annual rate of around 2% (Institut de l'Elevage, 2020-b). Trade in dairy products increased throughout the period studied (+24.3 million tonnes in milk equivalent between 2000-09 and 2018).

International trade in dairy products is divided into different categories of products, including cheeses (20% of total trade in value in 2018), infant milk powder (16%), whole milk powder (15%), flavoured milks (12%), skimmed milk powder (9%), butter (8%), liquid milk (3%), whey (3%), concentrated milks (3%), casein (3%), yoghurt (3%) and cream (2%). The structure of imports or exports according to these different product categories differs greatly from one country to another. For example, the United States are major importers of cheeses, while the Chinese are more likely to be purchasers of whole milk powder and infant milk powder. Similarly, New Zealand's exports are more oriented towards whole milk powder than towards cheeses, unlike the EU [START_REF] Chatellier | Le commerce international, européen et français de produits laitiers : évolutions tendancielles et dynamiques concurrentielles[END_REF].

The world market for dairy products is dominated by a small number of countries for export (Figure 5), mainly the EU (34% of world exports by value in 2018), New Zealand (20%) and the United States (10%). Next come Australia (5%), Switzerland (4%), and Belarus (3%). Between 2000-09 and 2018, the growth in exports was very significant in New Zealand (+7.1 million tonnes in milk equivalent), this country being favoured by one of the lowest milk production costs in the world, geographical proximity to the major importing countries and an economic organisation dedicated to exports (5% of the milk produced in this country is consumed locally). The United States, which historically exported few dairy products, have developed its exports, primarily to neighbouring countries, including Mexico. The EU has also improved its performance, especially in recent years, as domestic milk supply has been boosted following the end of milk quotas in 2015. The main dairy importing countries are, in value terms, China (€9.7 billion in 2018), the United States (€2.8 billion), Russia (€2 billion), Japan (€1.8 billion), Saudi Arabia (€1.6 billion) and Mexico (€1.6 billion). Between 2000-09 and 2018, the growth in China's dairy imports (+€8.8 billion) has no equivalent on a global scale; the next following countries are the United Arab Emirates (+€964 million), the United States (+€907 million), Russia (+€770 million) and Japan (+€747 million).

Conclusion

International trade in animal products, which amounts to €152 billion in 2018, is dominated by exports from a few countries, including the EU, the USA, New Zealand, Brazil and Australia. Exporters' strategies differ. Some countries, such as Brazil or New Zealand, are particularly successful in terms of "price competitiveness", while others, including EU Member States, seek to enhance "non-price competitiveness" (quality or typicality of products, high degree of product processing, etc.). With a trade balance of €23 billion in animal products in 2018, the EU contributes to the supply of Asian countries, which are heavily in deficit (-€63 billion). This balance is mainly due to surpluses in the dairy (€15.4 billion) and pig sectors (€7.2 billion). On the import side, the role of China in recent developments is significant. The increase in the consumption of animal proteins is, in fact, faster than the development of domestic supply, all the more so as the pig sector is going through a major production crisis due to African swine fever.

In many countries, however, trade in animal products represents a very limited share of domestic production and consumption. This is particularly true in developing countries, especially those in Africa, because animal products play a rather modest role in the food supply and economic resources are often insufficient to import products from industrialised countries.

The increase in world trade in the agro-food sector has been favoured by technical progress in the broad sense (including logistics), by the adoption of recognised standards (public and private) and by the increasing openness of economies. While World Trade Organization negotiations have not changed much in recent years, many economic areas, including the EU, are now signing bilateral agreements. Faced with the growing importance of environmental and climate concerns, these trade agreements are today the subject of many reservations [START_REF] Balogh | The environmental impacts of agricultural trade: A systematic literature review[END_REF][START_REF] Kolcava | Does trade liberalization lead to environmental burden shifting in the global economy?[END_REF]; access to a good at a competitive price does not, in fact, justify, at least in the eyes of many citizens/consumers, the fact that this has as its counterpart a deterioration of the environment in the exporting country. Thus, the question of sustainability is increasingly being placed at the heart of discussions of trade agreements. The trade war between the United States and China is also likely to have an influence on future trade trajectories [START_REF] He | China's Agricultural Imports under the Phase One Deal: Is Success Possible? Card policy briefs, 20-PB 29[END_REF]. The same is true of recent reflections within the EU on the so-called "farm to fork strategy" (European Commission, 2020-b) or on the links between the Common Agricultural Policy and the expectations of the Green Deal (European Commission, 2020c;Guyomard et al., 2020).

The prospective analyses carried out by the OECD and the FAO up to 2029 highlight several important developments for the global animal productions sector (OECD-FAO, 2020). In terms of global demand for animal products, the annual growth rate is expected to decline over the next ten years compared to the last ten years. However, three combined factors will continue to play a role in increasing (in absolute terms) global demand: i) the annual growth of global population, which averages 1.1% (United Nations, 2019), varies greatly between continents and countries, and are higher in developing countries, particularly in Africa; ii) the evolution of per capita annual calorie consumption ; iii) diet composition: animal proteins in diets is increasing rapidly in many Asian countries (including China for meat and India for dairy products), especially where household purchasing power is improving.

According to estimates, global meat production is expected to increase by about 12% between 2017-19 and 2029 (+40 million tons, half of which from poultry meat), with nearly 80% of this increase coming from developing countries. In dairy products, the expected increase in global production is around 16% between these two dates; half due to growth in livestock and the other half to improved animal performance (kg of milk per animal per year). World meat trade is expected to increase by about 12% over the same period, suggesting a lower annual growth rate than that observed over the previous decade. In the dairy sector, trade growth should be higher, with a continuing high contribution from the three main exporting zones (EU, New Zealand and the United States).

  having progressed from €2.4 billion in 2000 to €13.1 billion in 2012, Brazil's exports in animal products have been more stable since then.Despite a large population (207 million inhabitants) and an individual consumption of meat that has increased over the last few decades, Brazil's imports of animal products are still limited (€1.1 billion in 2018, 50% of which are dairy products). The main suppliers are the neighbouring countries of Mercosur, including Argentina (31% of the total), Uruguay (20%), Paraguay (18%) and the EU (16%). The EU's trade balance with Brazil is clearly in deficit both in the agri-food sector (-€8.1 billion) and in animal products (-€1.2 billion in 2018). The deficit is substantial in poultry meat (-€672 million) and beef (-€589 million), where the Brazilians are very competitive.

Fig. 1 .Fig. 2 .Fig. 3 .Fig. 4 .Fig. 5 .

 12345 Fig. 1. International trade* in animal products between 2000 and 2018 (current billion

Table 1 .

 1 International trade (exports, imports and trade balance) in animal products for different countries between 2000 and 2018 (current billion euros)

			Exports			Imports			Trade balance
	Countries	2000-09 2010-17	2018 2000-09 2010-17	2018 2000-09 2010-17	2018
	European Union*	13.6	27.1	32.4	7.2	9.4	9.4	6.5	17.8	23.0
	Other Europe	2.6	6.4	7.2	7.0	11.5	8.6	-4.4	-5.1	-1.4
	Belarus	0.7	2.5	2.6	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.5	2.2	2.4
	Ukraine	0.6	0.8	1.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.5
	Russia	0.3	0.6	0.9	4.7	7.7	4.4	-4.4	-7.1	-3.5
	North America	15.2	26.7	30.2	10.6	16.1	18.3	4.6	10.6	11.9
	Canada	4.8	6.2	6.7	2.0	3.8	4.1	2.8	2.4	2.6
	United States	10.5	20.5	23.5	8.6	12.2	14.1	1.9	8.3	9.4
	Central America	1.4	3.4	4.3	4.9	8.4	9.5	-3.4	-4.9	-5.2
	South America	10.0	20.7	22.1	2.3	5.6	4.8	7.7	15.1	17.3
	Argentina	1.7	2.8	3.4	0.1	0.2	0.2	1.6	2.6	3.1
	Brazil	6.2	13.5	13.5	0.4	1.0	1.1	5.8	12.4	12.4
	Paraguay	0.2	0.9	1.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.9	1.0
	Uruguay	0.9	2.1	2.6	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	2.0	2.4
	Oceania	12.7	23.6	27.6	1.1	2.6	3.2	11.6	21.0	24.4
	Australia	6.3	10.3	12.6	0.6	1.5	2.0	5.6	8.7	10.6
	New Zealand	6.4	13.3	15.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	6.2	12.9	14.4
	Asia	8.4	20.3	26.6	27.5	67.1	89.1	-19.1	-46.8	-62.5
	India	0.8	2.6	3.9	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.7	2.3	3.6
	Thailand	1.3	3.4	5.2	0.5	1.1	1.1	0.8	2.3	4.0
	Japan	0.1	0.4	0.6	8.5	11.8	14.2	-8.3	-11.4	-13.5
	South Korea	0.1	0.5	0.6	1.7	3.8	5.9	-1.6	-3.3	-5.3
	China	2.4	4.5	6.0	3.5	17.0	26.8	-1.1	-12.4	-20.7
	Vietnam	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.5	2.5	5.1	-0.3	-2.2	-4.8
	Africa	1.0	2.2	1.8	4.5	10.2	9.8	-3.4	-7.9	-8.0
	World	65.0	130.8	152.8	65.0	130.8	152.8	0.0	0.0	0.0
	*Excluding intra-European Union trade
	Source: INRAE, SMART-LERECO according to BACI

The trade balance in animal products in2000-09 and 2018 (current billion euros)

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Cécile Le Roy (INRAE, UMR SMART-LERECO) for her efficient support in customs data processing.

Financial support statement

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial or nonfor-profit section.

Data and model availability statement

None of the data were deposited in an official repository.

BACI data are available on CEPII website: www.CEPII.fr. BACI provides disaggregated data on bilateral trade flows for more than 5000 products and 200 countries. The database is built from data directly reported by each country to the United Nations Statistical Division (Comtrade). The CEPII developed a procedure that reconciles the declarations of the exporter and the importer that may be different in the original data.

Corresponding author ORCID

Vincent Chatellier: 0000-0008-8919-0271

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Author contributions

Vincent Chatellier (alone): writing, reviewing and editing.

Declaration of interest

None.