Frédéric Salladarré

Rémy Le Boennec
email: remy.leboennec@gmail.com

Marlène Bel

Robotaxis or Autonomous Shuttles? The Role

Keywords: robotaxi, autonomous shuttle, autonomous vehicle, urban representation, travel habit, intention to use, acceptance, transport mode, autonomous mode choice, simultaneousequation model

published or not. The documents may come   L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire

Robotaxis or autonomous shuttles? The role of urban representations and travel habits in tomorrow's mode choice in France

Frédéric Salladarré 1,2 , Rémy Le Boennec *,3 , Marlène Bel 3

Introduction

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to profoundly modify our travel habits within the next five to ten years. Beyond the technological performance of the continuouslydeveloping connected systems of driverless or self-driving vehicles, the question has recently risen of the impacts of AVs on the roads [START_REF] Fagnant | Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations[END_REF][START_REF] Berrada | Modeling Transportation Systems involving Autonomous Vehicles: A State of the Art[END_REF]. It is commonly accepted that these impacts will vary widely according to the particular autonomous modes of transport put forward: (1) autonomous shuttles, (2) privately-owned selfdriving cars and (3) robotaxis. The first corresponds to collective mobility, as autonomous shuttles are mostly supposed to complement existing public transport networks as the 'firstmile/ last-mile' solution to/from mass transport nodes such as railway stations [START_REF] Merat | Human factors, user requirements, and user acceptance of ride-sharing in automated vehicles[END_REF][START_REF] Shen | Integrating shared autonomous vehicle in public transportation system: A supply-side simulation of the first-mile service in Singapore[END_REF]). On the contrary, the second and the third types of AVs refer to individual mobility, whether personal (private self-driving cars) or on-demand (robotaxis). 1 Much is expected of autonomous modes of transport. AVs are supposed to enhance mobility, especially for permanently-(disabled or elderly) or temporarily-(medication or alcohol) impaired drivers [START_REF] Becker | Literature review on surveys investigating the acceptance of automated vehicles[END_REF]. At the same time, they are expected to reduce congestion [START_REF] Payre | Intention to use a fully automated car: Attitudes and a priori acceptability[END_REF][START_REF] Berrada | Modeling Transportation Systems involving Autonomous Vehicles: A State of the Art[END_REF]. As driverless vehicles are imagined to be electric, there are no associated greenhouse-gas emissions, and the noise exposure of urban inhabitants will also fall. The greatest expectation concerns road-safety issues, as AVs are hoped to lead to sharply lower road-mortality rates [START_REF] Schoettle | A survey of public opinion about autonomous and selfdriving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia[END_REF][START_REF] Lang | Self-driving vehicles, robo-taxis, and the urban mobility revolution[END_REF]. Last, AVs provide useful time during trips, as with fully-automated driving the 'driver' can 'drive' hands off/ eyes off. 2 1 We assume that individuals would not have thought of the particular case of shared robotaxis (in the sense of ridesharing), as this form of mobility (conventional pooling taxis) was not very developed in France when the questionnaire was launched. 2 The 2014 SAE International classification (revised in 2016) lists the following autonomy levels: (L0) Manual driving; (L1) Either lateral (for example, lane-keeping system) or longitudinal (for example advanced cruise control) control are automated, and the driver must always pay attention to the road; (L2) Automated lateral and longitudinal control (for example Tesla), and the driver must always pay attention to the road; (L3) L2 + the driver These benefits do not appear equally for the different autonomous modes of transport.

With private or on-demand mobility, the congestion externality will be reduced via the greater prevalence of self-driving cars (a queue of automated cars is supposed to be able to start at exactly at the same time when traffic lights turn green, for example). However, this benefit may not be as large as expected if every private conventional car is systematically replaced by a selfdriving car (with no change in the number of vehicles on the road). Moreover, vehicles without drivers may be found on the road, either going to fetch the mobility user or looking for parking if not in use [START_REF] Poulhès | Single vehicle network versus dispatcher: user assignment in an agent-based model[END_REF]. One knock-on effect is that the useful time gained from the use of private self-driving cars may lead users to choose more-distant residential locations, as the time spent in the car, now not used for driving, can be devoted to other activities [START_REF] Orfeuil | Piloter le véhicule autonome[END_REF]. Beyond the current benefits of public transport in crowded urban areas, public autonomous mobility may, in certain situations, better tackle congestion in the future than private or on-demand autonomous mobility.

Most of the work on the determinants of autonomous mode choice is quite recent. That in social psychology takes into account the concept of acceptance to determine autonomous mode choice. The acceptance of a new object (a technology, service or method) is a prerequisite for the use of this object [START_REF] Bel | Acceptabilité du véhicule autonome[END_REF]. The analysis of object acceptance corresponds to study social representations that will make the object useful and attractive [START_REF] Bobillier Chaumon | Conditions d'usage et facteurs d'acceptation des technologies: Questions et perspectives pour la psychologie du travail[END_REF]. Individual acceptance of a new technology is a three-step process: a priori acceptability (the first step), acceptance to use (the second step) and appropriation to use (the third step). We here focus on the first step (a priori acceptability), as the two travel objects we analyze are forthcoming innovations and most individuals will not have had the opportunity to use them and can only form vague ideas about them [START_REF] Bel | Predicting the use of upcoming in-car technologies: A driver support systems acceptance model[END_REF]. At this stage, (1) object acceptance does not need to monitor the road continuously, but must be ready to recover control of the vehicle at any time; (L4) L3 + the vehicle is capable of performing a safety maneuver (for example stop alone) if after a request for manual recovery the driver has not taken control; and (L5) Fully-automated driving with no need for a driver. comes from the comparison between the current situation and the future benefits brought about by the new technology (Bobillier Chaumon and Dubois 2009) and (2) this acceptance is measured by the intention to use the new object, which is the direct determinant of real use (for example, [START_REF] Venkatesh | Technology acceptance model 3 and a research agenda on interventions[END_REF][START_REF] Venkatesh | User acceptance of information technology: Toward a unified view[END_REF]. Throughout the rest of the manuscript, we will use the term 'acceptance' for ease of reading.

Three types of analysis of the acceptance or intention to use AVs have been carried out.

In the first, the intention to use AVs (or the acceptance of AVs) is estimated for different autonomy levels (highly-automated cars or fully-automated cars): [START_REF] Rödel | Towards autonomous cars: the effect of autonomy levels on acceptance and user experience[END_REF], [START_REF] Schoettle | Motorists' preferences for different levels of vehicle automation[END_REF], [START_REF] Abraham | Autonomous vehicles and alternatives to driving: trust, preferences, and effects of age[END_REF], [START_REF] Liu | Evaluating Initial Public Acceptance of Highly and Fully Autonomous Vehicles[END_REF]. The second group focuses on the intention to use various autonomous modes of transport: personal (single-occupant privatelyowned cars), on-demand (robotaxis) and collective (autonomous shuttles): [START_REF] Krueger | Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles[END_REF], [START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF], [START_REF] Pettigrew | Clusters of potential autonomous vehicles users according to propensity to use individual versus shared vehicles[END_REF], [START_REF] Berrada | Factors of successful implementation and diffusion of services based on autonomous vehicles: users' acceptance and operators' profitability[END_REF]. [START_REF] Kamel | Exploring the impact of user preferences on shared autonomous vehicle modal split: a multi-agent simulation approach[END_REF] simulate the respective modal shares of an on-demand mobility offer as a function of the current transport mode: conventional private car, public transit (with a driver) and active modes. The last group of analyses focus on particular categories of mobility users [START_REF] Abraham | Autonomous vehicles and alternatives to driving: trust, preferences, and effects of age[END_REF], for the elderly) or trip characteristics (Wang andAkar 2019, Zhou et al. 2020).

We in this paper focus on the determinants of modal shift. We first consider a transport mode that is expected to encourage car-owners to give up, under certain conditions, their personal vehicle: on-demand mobility in the form of robotaxis. We then turn to a more environmentally-friendly autonomous mode of transport, autonomous shuttles, given the higher average vehicle-occupancy rates, the connection to existing transport networks and the need to walk to the stop. We thus ask respondents about their intention to use one of those transport modes, were they to be available. To our knowledge, ours is the first analysis comparing the results regarding on-demand versus collective autonomous mobility.

A number of explanatory variables of the intention to use AVs commonly appear in the literature cited above: sociodemographic variables (gender, age, marital status, number of children, education and income), technophilia characteristics, attitudes (happiness score and the perception of the future) and mobility variables (having a driver's license, driver experience, the number of crashes and current transport mode). More innovative are location and urban representations (the way individuals view the city), given that urban residents are usually considered more likely to accept or intend to use AVs [START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF]. In this paper, we further investigate location, both objective (living in large, medium or small urban areas, or in isolated municipalities) and subjective, via the way in which respondents perceive urban areas (as a place to live or a place to carry out activities, for example).

The relationships between urban forms and mobility patterns are key issues for policy makers. Urban planners aim to construct or re-construct livable cities, marrying acceptable levels of housing density, daily-life facilities regarding shopping, education and health, green spaces and innovative solutions for mobility within these areas (ADEME 2018). The particular role to be assigned to the different types of AVs as complements to active modes remains to be established. Some results suggest that AV technology will mostly be accepted (and therefore used) in urban areas. Our results show that this view is too simplistic, with the role of multipolar areas. This yields new insights regarding the areas where AVs may be deployed in France, the desired destinations, and the relevant ways of getting there. As autonomous shuttles are mostly viewed as a way to travel the first or last mile, robotaxis are considered to provide a better service in terms of the variety of destinations, but at a greater cost to the user.

The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 discusses our research design, data, and the simultaneous-equation model that we use for the estimation. Section 3 presents and discusses our results. Last, we provide some concluding remarks in Section 4.

Materials and method

Research design

We use an original online survey conducted in 2017 on 3,297 French respondents to look at the determinants of the intention to use different forms of fully-autonomous mobility (robotaxis and autonomous shuttles). We explain this intention by sociodemographic characteristics, attitudinal variables, technophilia characteristics and mobility variables.

We assume different intentions to use one or the other autonomous mode. Indeed, recent studies have shown that the nature of the object could induce a difference in acceptance, as could a difference in use [START_REF] Bel | Acceptabilité du véhicule autonome[END_REF][START_REF] Berrada | Factors of successful implementation and diffusion of services based on autonomous vehicles: users' acceptance and operators' profitability[END_REF]. More specifically, we test in this study the following hypotheses (Figure 1).

Fig. 1. Hypothetical relationships between the variables

Note: Expected sign of the relationship in parentheses

(1) Certain sociodemographic characteristics are expected to directly influence the intention to use AVs. In most previous studies, age is supposed to be conversely related to automation acceptance (Schoettle andSivak 2014, Bansal et al. 2016), such as education level [START_REF] Kyriakidis | Public opinion on automated driving: Results of an international questionnaire among 5000 respondents[END_REF][START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF]. The results are less clear considering gender or the type of municipality.

(2) Certain mobility characteristics and travel habits directly influence the intention to use autonomous shuttles or robotaxis. Concerning the main mode of transport currently used, [START_REF] Krueger | Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles[END_REF] find that multimodality (including public transport) is positively associated with the acceptance of shared automated vehicles.

(3) Certain attitudinal variables are expected to directly influence the intention to use AVs. In this paper, we intend to verify the influence of environmental sensitivity or perception of the future on the intention to use any of the autonomous modes under consideration. We also consider the influence of urban representations, such as depicted in the next Subsection. We do not a priori expect a positive or negative influence of these variables on AVs acceptance.

(4) In turn, the attitudinal variables are supposed to be influenced by sociodemographic characteristics.

Data and descriptive statistics

The data used for our empirical analysis come from an online survey on French mobility use and representations towards future transport modes. This survey is a part of a larger project on urban representations and emerging uses of the city. This project is split up into a number of topics, including the local urban economy, carbon-footprint reduction, distance-working and unavoidable mobility. The survey was carried out by L'ObSoCo, a French observatory of society and consumption, on a representative sample of the French population with 4,000 questionnaires completed online in 2017. We used information from 3,297 questionnaires, due to missing information on declared intention to use on-demand and/or collective autonomous vehicles. 3A number of variables in the survey may potentially affect the declared intention to use on-demand and/or collective autonomous vehicles: individual (for example, gender, age and education) and external (for example, type of municipality) variables affect habits (for example, the main transport mode). Habits thus influence attitudes that are given by the positive or negative evaluation of an object [START_REF] Ajzen | The theory of planned behavior[END_REF]. When attitudes are positive, people see the benefits of the object as outweighing its disadvantages; conversely, with negative attitudes individuals consider the object's disadvantages to be more important than its benefits. Attitudes are thus the direct predictor of behavioral intention [START_REF] Fishbein | Predicting and changing behavior: The reasoned action approach[END_REF]), and will be used here as an additional determinant of the intention to use AVs. A.1. The average age is 44, and women are very slightly over-represented (around 51 per cent) in the sample. Respondents are fairly welleducated (over half have at least a Bachelor's degree), mostly live in a couple (around 70 per cent) and in urban areas (79 per cent), and about 40 per cent live with children. Among the travel habits, private cars are the main transport mode for around 60 per cent of respondents, and public transport for 22 per cent. Only 2 per cent of respondents use innovative forms of active mobility as their main transport mode (micro-mobility objects), 23 per cent are car passengers (private pools) and 4 per cent frequently use other forms of shared or on-demand mobility (carpooling platforms, car-sharing, taxis and private-hire cars). Regarding their ideal trip, 32 per cent of respondents quote active modes of transport, whereas the car is preferred by 29 per cent (see Table A.1).

The descriptive statistics appear in Table

The respondents' declared intention to use on-demand and/or collective autonomous vehicles is the central variable in our analysis. Respondents' answers come from the following question: "If the following services were to become available where you live, would you have the intention to use them?", with one question for collective AVs, such as autonomous shuttles, and another for on-demand AVs, such as robotaxis. The four ordered possible responses were:

(1) No, certainly not, (2) No, probably not, (3) Yes, probably and (4) Yes, certainly. The percentage of 'Yes' answers is higher for autonomous shuttles than for robotaxis (see Figure 2). Around 68 per cent of respondents answered 'Yes, certainly' or 'Yes, probably' for autonomous shuttles, with an analogous figure of around 50 per cent for robotaxis.

The intention to use the two transport modes are positively related: the Kendall rankcorrelation coefficient between autonomous shuttles and robotaxis is 0.56 and statistically significant (the hypothesis of independence is rejected at the 0.001 level). The two autonomous modes of transport thus seem to be complementary for the majority of respondents. However, this complementarity is not found for those who answered 'Yes' for one mode and 'No' to the other, with an intention to use autonomous shuttles exclusively that is far higher than that for robotaxis exclusively, applying to almost one-quarter of respondents. We suppose that some variables in the survey may potentially affect differently the declared intention to use ondemand and collective autonomous vehicles. Although some recent studies focus on the comparison of individual and shared used of autonomous vehicles, namely robotaxis [START_REF] Bansal | Influence of choice experiment designs on eliciting preferences for autonomous vehicles[END_REF], we thus believe that the importance of the autonomous object is crucial when considering acceptance. Respondents' sociodemographic characteristics may affect their robotaxi/autonomous shuttle intention to use. Figure 3 depicts the mean scores from 1 to 4 of the robotaxi/autonomous shuttle answers for sub-groups by sociodemographic characteristics. For each characteristic, the intention to use autonomous shuttles is greater than that for robotaxis. There are marked differences by gender and education. However, except for those living in low-density urban areas (who are less likely to use robotaxis and autonomous shuttles), the mean intention-to-use scores are fairly similar for most of the variables in the figure .   Beyond the sociodemographic characteristics, respondents' urban representations were analyzed using ten questions answered on a ten-point scale: "To what extent do you consider that the city is good place to […]?" The items are as follows: Grow, Live, Raise children, Age, Work, Earn a living, Fulfill your professional life, Enjoy activities, Study and Shop. We calculate a correlation matrix for all criteria to test the consistency of answers. A number of variables are strongly correlated: this may be due to underlying factors that can be detected via factor analysis. 4 Using the Kaiser criterion, two factors emerge from the analysis. In order to interpret these, the factor loadings are depicted in Figure 4 (a higher factor-loading means that the factor is more heavily influenced by the variable). The first factor pools six variables (Work, Earn a living, Fulfill your professional life, Enjoy activities, Study and Shop) and the second four variables (Grow, Live, Raise children and Age). The Cronbach's alpha score of the internal consistency of the survey items is 0.83 for the first factor and 0.85 for the second, which is acceptable according to [START_REF] Nunnally | Psychometric methods[END_REF].

Living in the city then corresponds to two perspectives. The first focuses on the use of the city by individuals, who perceive that they can successfully carry out their daily activities there, and the existing literature has shown that this perception of control directly affects behavioral intention and behavior [START_REF] Fishbein | Predicting and changing behavior: The reasoned action approach[END_REF]. The second view is that city living matches the individual's major universal values [START_REF] Schwartz | Toward a theory of the universal content and structure of values: Extensions and cross cultural replications[END_REF][START_REF] Schwartz | Value priorities and behavior: Applying of theory of integrated value systems[END_REF]Schwarz 2011). Attitudes towards the use of the object prevail in the first case, whereas the direct attitudes towards the object (the city) prevail in the second one. We can then consider the first factor as an instrumental representation of the city and the second as the city as a way of life.

Fig. 4. Factor loadings for the city as a good place to […]

Source: Chronos and L'ObSoCo 2017

Following the factor analysis, we construct two variables for urban representations by calculating the mean values of the items contained in each factor; these are positively correlated (with a coefficient of 0.40).

Econometric model

From the theoretical section and the descriptive analysis of the data, we hypothesize that the probability of using robotaxis and autonomous shuttles may be explained by a number of Xi is a vector of sociodemographic characteristics, Hi a vector of technophilia characteristics, Ti a vector of mobility variables, Ui and Vi vectors reflecting the representations of the city as an instrument and a way of life respectively, Fi a vector reflecting the perception of the future, and Si a vector reflecting the environmental sensitivity. As U and V are continuous variables, Eq. ( 3) & (4) reflect linear equations and will be directly estimated by regression models. Eq. ( 5) & ( 6) respectively reflect linear ordered probability and linear probability equations which will be respectively estimated by ordered Probit and Probit models. As for Eq.

(1) & ( 2), the answers to the perception of the future F and environmental sensitivity S are determined by the underlying continuous variables F* and S*. Last, α, β, φ, γ, δ, θ, λ, κ, μ, π, χ, τ, ς, ζ, ϙ, ϲ, ν, η, ψ, ξ, ϳ, ϵ, ϱ, and ϖ are the corresponding parameters to be estimated and εi, ωi, υi, οi, νi, and ιi are the residual error terms assumed normally distributed. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood.

Results and discussion

Table 1 presents the results of the simultaneous-equation model estimated to study the respondents' intention to use the two forms of autonomous transport modes. This intention is supposed to be explained by sociodemographic characteristics, attitudinal variables, technophilia characteristics and mobility variables. Moreover, marginal effects were estimated for the explanatory variables on their intention to use autonomous shuttles or robotaxis. The marginal effects are presented in Table 2. Note: Average Change (AC) and conditional marginal effects for each of the four categories from (1) to ( 4). ( 1), ( 2), ( 3) and ( 4) are the marginal effect for each outcome of the dependent variable: (1) for No, certainly not, (2) for No, probably not, (3) for Yes, probably and (4) for Yes, certainly.

Sociodemographic characteristics

Age and gender both turn out to influence the intention to use the two autonomous transport modes (models ( 1) & ( 2) in Table 1). Men are more prone to this use than women (with a 2.6 per cent higher probability as indicated by the average marginal change in Table 2), as are the older (45 years and over) relative to the younger. The only other sociodemographic characteristic that stands out is that higher education is associated with a greater intention to use autonomous shuttles, but not robotaxis. Marital status and children in the household do not predict the intention to use either autonomous transportation mode.

As emphasized by the OECD (2017a, 2017b), a number of countries have significant digital divides, particularly urban-rural and between those with high and low incomes, but also between men and women. However, in the previous literature [START_REF] Krueger | Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles[END_REF] find no significant gender difference in autonomous mode choice in five major metropolitan areas in Australia. The number of children is not always significant either [START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Krueger | Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF], but education is mostly associated with greater acceptance of intention to use AVs: [START_REF] Kyriakidis | Public opinion on automated driving: Results of an international questionnaire among 5000 respondents[END_REF], [START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF], [START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF]. Younger people in Anglo-Saxon countries are usually more prone to use AVs (Schoettle and Sivak 2014, and Bansal et al. 2016). 5 Living in a city or in the countryside likely determines the intention to use on-demand or collective autonomous modes of transport, given their current geographical use (a far higher modal share of public transport in the city, and the more frequent use of private cars elsewhere, Chronos and L'ObSoCo 2017, [START_REF] Orfeuil | Attitudes et opinions sur les véhicules autonomes en France et dans le monde[END_REF]. Our results in Table 1 reveal a distinction between highly and mediumly-populated areas on the one hand, be they major urban centers or their surrounding areas, and lightly-populated areas (small towns and their surroundings, and isolated municipalities). Multipolar areas form a third geographic group. Living in a lowdensity urban area reduces the intention to use autonomous shuttles, compared to highly-or mediumly-dense urban areas (a 2.5 per cent lower probability, as indicated by the average marginal change in Table 2), although no significant difference is found for robotaxis.

Multipolar areas (which are mostly low-density, as they are not themselves major urban centers) are positively associated with both autonomous transport modes, compared to highly-or mediumly-dense areas (1.9 and 2 per cent higher probability for autonomous shuttles and robotaxis as indicated by the average marginal change in Table 2). As such, autonomous vehicles may have a role to play in linking low-density areas to major urban centers, or moving people within these municipalities for other reasons.

We tested various clusters of location types. Surprisingly, the traditional opposition between urban centers and their surroundings in France does not affect the intention to use either autonomous mode. Equally, no difference was found between major urban centers (the 'Métropoles' in French, including Paris), which are supposed to be far more attractive than the other areas, the surroundings of these Métropoles (still strongly connected to the urban center)

and the rest of the country.

In the previous literature, [START_REF] Krueger | Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles[END_REF] find a positive relationship between living in urban areas and the acceptance of autonomous shuttles as the future of public transit. Central locations affect not only public autonomous mobility but also shared mobility for commuting trips [START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF]. This distinction between rural and urban areas regarding AV acceptance is consistent with that in other work (for example, [START_REF] König | Users' resistance towards radical innovations: The case of the self-driving car[END_REF] showing that individuals in rural areas do not feel concerned by AVs, as the infrastructure may not be adapted there [START_REF] Bel | Acceptabilité du véhicule autonome[END_REF], which constitutes unfavorable external conditions [START_REF] Venkatesh | User acceptance of information technology: Toward a unified view[END_REF].

Attitudinal variables and technophilia characteristics

Our attitudinal variables here are attitudes towards the future, environmental sensitivity, and urban representations (the 'City as an instrument' or 'City as a way of life'). The attitudinal variables are presumed to influence the intention to use AV and are as well as supposed to be affected by socio-demographic characteristics (Figure 1).

Positive attitudes towards the future are strongly associated with a greater intention to use both autonomous transport modes, as is owning a smartphone or a tablet (having a tablet increases the probability reflecting the intention to use by 3.3 per cent for autonomous shuttles and 4 per cent for robotaxis, as indicated by the average marginal change in Table 2).

Furthermore, environmental sensitivity has a significant impact on the intention to use autonomous shuttles, including the most environmentally-friendly autonomous shuttle (which is public transport).

Regarding urban representations, 'City as an instrument' reduces the intention to use both autonomous transport modes, while 'City as a way of life' increases both. Models (3) & (4) in Table 1 show the correlates of these two urban representations. 'City as an instrument' is more common for older and highly-educated respondents, and falls with neighborhood density; 'City as a way of life' is also more common for the highly-educated, but less so for the middle-aged, those in couples and in low-density or multipolar areas. The perception of the future (model ( 5)) is negatively associated with age and female status, but positively associated with parental status and tertiary education. The influence of sociodemographic variables on environmental sensitiveness is quite poor ( 6)): couples are less sensitive than singles; so are inhabitants of low-density urban areas.

Models ( 1) & (2) in Table 1 show that the city considered as a way of life is positively associated with both autonomous transport modes. AV acceptance may be part of a positive representation of the future associated with middle-aged, highly-educated mobility users. Even so, the "gadget-effect" of these vehicles should not be overlooked, and it would be useful to test AV acceptance over time, that is to say both the "acceptance to use" and "appropriation to use" stages of the acceptance process.

Last, we have not found any work in which technophilia characteristics reduced the intention to use autonomous technology. For automated vehicles, [START_REF] Schoettle | A survey of public opinion about autonomous and selfdriving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia[END_REF] and [START_REF] Abraham | Autonomous vehicles and alternatives to driving: trust, preferences, and effects of age[END_REF] in the United States find, as we do, a positive relationship between the intention to use and 'technology awareness'. Comparable results are found by [START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF] for interest in autonomous technology.

Mobility characteristics, travel habits and representations

The respondent mobility characteristics here are having a driving license and the number of cars in the household. Surprisingly, holding a driving license is not associated with the intention to use either autonomous shuttles or robotaxis. The transport of those who cannot drive is considered as a future attraction of autonomous mobility.6 However, having a driving license (91 per cent of respondents) is not inconsistent with an intention to use robotaxis or autonomous shuttles occasionally as a complement to private cars (for example, going home late at night or to go to a nearby urban center to shop). The net effect of having a driving license on autonomous mode choice is then ambiguous.

Wang and Akar (2019) find that autonomous technology benefits those who drive to work more than other types of commuters. This difference from our results may come from (1) the particular sample of employed workers who were asked to complete an online survey, and (2)

the specific nature of commuting to work, which is rarely considered as pleasant by drivers (a repeated, unavoidable and often congested trip).

Also surprisingly, household number of cars is associated with a greater intention to use autonomous shuttles, but not robotaxis. Respondents may here consider autonomous shuttles as a complement to private cars (to go to certain congested areas at peak hours), whereas robotaxis may be viewed as a substitute for a second car. Alternatively, cost could be at play, with autonomous shuttles being seen as cheaper than robotaxis for households with multiple cars and higher transport costs than households with one or no cars. Last, autonomous shuttles and robotaxis may be considered respectively, as we already mentioned, as current public transport (for example, buses) and current on-demand mobility offers with reservation systems (like Uber). As the former (public transport) is older than the latter (on-demand mobility offers), individuals' social representations of buses are more anchored than those of on-demand mobility [START_REF] Abric | L'organisation interne des représentations sociales : système central et système périphérique[END_REF][START_REF] Moscovici | Des représentations collectives aux représentations sociales : éléments pour une histoire[END_REF][START_REF] Moliner | Les représentations sociales : fondements historiques et développements récents[END_REF]. Individuals may thus more easily imagine themselves using the new services of the former than the latter [START_REF] Moliner | Attitudes and social representations: a theoretical and experimental approach[END_REF]. This may lie behind the greater intention to use autonomous shuttles than robotaxis (cf. Planned Behavior Theory, Ajzen 1991).

The impact of household car-ownership on the intention to use AVs (and of which type) is generally not clear in the literature. [START_REF] Rödel | Towards autonomous cars: the effect of autonomy levels on acceptance and user experience[END_REF] and [START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF] respectively consider vehicle miles traveled and driving frequency, without knowing whether these distances are covered by one or more household vehicles. This is also the case in [START_REF] Pettigrew | Clusters of potential autonomous vehicles users according to propensity to use individual versus shared vehicles[END_REF], who look at car-ownership status but do not know many cars are owned. Even so, car ownership turns out to be insignificant in their analysis. In [START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF], the number of cars per households is negatively correlated with the propensity to use for both on-demand and shared autonomous mobility.

The travel habits of respondents are expected to affect both the intention to use automated vehicles in general and their preferred autonomous transport mode. We find that the daily transport mode significantly affects the intention to use autonomous modes. There are contrasting results for active modes: walking is significantly associated with the intention to use both autonomous modes, but this is not the case for cycling, which is insignificant.

Unsurprisingly, current use of public transport increases the intention to use autonomous shuttles as public transport in the future (a 5.1 per cent higher probability, as mentioned in Table 2). None of the remaining current transport modes is significantly correlated with the intention to use either autonomous mode. These results would probably be different were privatelyowned self-driving cars to have been on the list (especially regarding the many respondents who currently drive conventional cars). [START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF] find that driving frequency (which can be thought of a proxy for private single-occupant car being the main mode of transport) is associated with greater interest in fully-automated technology. However, the authors do not distinguish between private and collective or on-demand AV use. Concerning the current use of alternative modes to private cars, [START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF] emphasize that commuting via public transit, ridesharing or travelling by active modes is always negatively correlated with individual autonomous mobility for commuting (private cars). [START_REF] Krueger | Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles[END_REF] find a positive relationship between multimodality and the acceptance of shared automated vehicles.

Specifically concerning active modes, [START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF] find a negative relationship between current active-mode use and the propensity to use private self-driving cars. However, the authors do not distinguish between walking and cycling. Again, knowing the purpose of the trip (home-to-work in the latter) may help solve this apparent contradiction: a mobility user who walks to work today will probably not need a motorized mode to go to work tomorrow, whatever form it takes. This may not apply for other trip purposes, where walking may be viewed as an unavoidable mode of transport for some trips.

We last have information on the respondent's ideal trip: (1) public transport, (2) private car and (3) active modes (as compared to a combination of these three). This set of questions aims to describe the ideal way of traveling daily (without considering automated vehicles).

Respondents who view private cars or active modes as this ideal mode are strongly opposed to the two autonomous transport modes (choosing 'exclusively by car' as ideal trip reduces the probability reflecting the intention to use by 6,4 per cent for autonomous shuttles and 3.6 per cent for robotaxis, as indicated by the average marginal change in Table 2), whereas, this time, public-transport proponents do not consider that autonomous shuttles will suit their travel requirements.

Conclusions

This empirical paper contributes to the recent scarce work on the intention to use fullyautomated vehicles. As we consider in parallel the determinants for modal shift, we did not look at the intention to use privately-owned self-driving cars. We rather considered another form of individual mobility that is separate from ownership (on-demand mobility in the form of robotaxis). As the nature of the autonomous object matters, the intention to use this novel form of mobility was compared to that for autonomous shuttles, which is the expected future form of collective mobility.

Our survey contains a number of attitudinal variables that we use in a simultaneousequation model to focus on mobility users' representations of the city. Some see the city more as an instrument (to carry out activities) and others as a way of life (corresponding to universal values). The former are older and highly-educated, and do not intend to use either autonomous mode of transport; the second are single, also highly-educated, and are more likely to use both modes. For these two groups there was no difference in the intention to use robotaxis rather than autonomous shuttles.

Apart from attitudes, we considered two other groups of explanatory variables: the classic sociodemographic characteristics of mobility users and their mobility characteristics. Our This may be less important for local authorities, as robotaxis can be proposed by private operators; nevertheless, the service may fail if it is not profitable, which is not what local authorities desire in terms of the continuity of mobility offers available to their inhabitants. The situation may be the opposite in multipolar areas, where we find an intention to use both autonomous modes. While the key challenge in these areas remains the relevant routes for autonomous shuttles (where should they go?), this could indicate an opportunity for robotaxis, which can likely cover many destinations that the local authority will not have to define a priori.

Second, the statements of acceptance in our survey only deal with the first stage of the process (when individuals have a number of of the potential technology and its use). As a result, recommendations must be made with caution: these here come from an initial analysis and may not be valid once individuals (start and) continue to use the service.

As car drivers do not intend to use any of the autonomous modes, it is also not clear how to effect a sizeable modal shift between the main current transportation mode and future autonomous modes. Our results here do not allow us to make recommendations. The results regarding the ideal transport mode do not correspond to the intention to use AVs, as mobility users who consider the car as the ideal way to travel daily very likely do not intend to use any of the future autonomous modes.

As pedestrians and public transport users claim that they would use autonomous shuttles if available, we can conclude that autonomous technology will retain the current users of public transport, whether there is a driver is behind the wheel or not. For autonomous shuttles (and robotaxis), the emphasis is on the autonomous aspect of the object. While the technology is innovative, the use is not. With respect to the use, an autonomous shuttle has the same features as a current bus (and a robotaxi the same functionality as a current on-demand mobility offer like Uber). We have shown that, under certain conditions, current users would be inclined to use these new autonomous transport modes. This is unsurprising, as individuals stick to their existing habits [START_REF] Bel | Prédire l'utilisation d'une technologie nouvelle : Le cas des systèmes de transports intelligents coopératifs[END_REF]. For privately-owned self-driving cars (not analyzed here), the underlying technology is innovative but, unlike the two other new forms of mobility, so is the use: the driver will change his/her activity during this interaction with the autonomous vehicle.

He/she will be able to do something else inside his/her vehicle. On the contrary, in shuttles or robotaxis, users do not change their habits or their use. There is no paradigm shift in this case [START_REF] Bel | Acceptabilité du véhicule autonome[END_REF].

Although this topic is important for the future of mobility, our work here suffers from a number of limitations. In particular, some explanatory variables that were not available in our dataset were not considered, although they appear frequently in other work. Including trip characteristics to overcome these limitations would be a useful subject for further research.

Fig. 2 .Fig

 2 Fig. 2. The distribution of the declared intention to use autonomous vehicles Note: The ordered variables are treated as continuous. A Gaussian kernel function is used (bandwidth=0.5) Source: Chronos and L'ObSoCo 2017

  variables: sociodemographic characteristics (external and individual variables), attitudinal variables and technophilia characteristics, the main transport modes respondents use, and the urban representations from the factor analysis. Moreover, the views of the city as an instrument and as a way of life are simultaneously considered as a function of the sociodemographic characteristics. The resulting simultaneous-equation model estimates the standard errors taking into account the contemporaneous correlations of the representations of the city as an instrument and as a way of life (due to their Gaussian error distributions). The model can be written as: 𝐶 𝑖 * = 𝛼 + 𝛽𝑋 𝑖 + 𝜑𝐻 𝑖 + 𝛾𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛿𝑉 𝑖 + 𝜃𝑈 𝑖 + λ𝐹 𝑖 + κ𝑆 𝑖 + 𝜀 𝑖 (1) 𝐼 𝑖 * = 𝜇 + 𝜋𝑋 𝑖 + χ𝐻 𝑖 +𝜏𝑇 𝑖 + 𝜍𝑉 𝑖 + 𝜁𝑈 𝑖 + ϙ𝐹 𝑖 + ϲ𝑆 𝑖 + 𝜔 𝑖 (2) 𝑈 𝑖 = 𝜈 + 𝜂𝑋 𝑖 + 𝜗 𝑖 (𝑖 * , and 𝑆 𝑖 * being underlying continuous variables and Ui and Vi being continuous variables which vary between the individuals i. As Eq.(1) & (2) reflect linear ordered probability equations, they will be estimated through ordered Probit models. The assumption here is that the answers to the autonomous shuttle C and robotaxi questions I are determined by the underlying continuous variables C* and I*. When C* and I* take values between certain thresholds, the corresponding observable outcomes C and I take the values of 1, 2, 3 and 4.

  results regarding sociodemographic variables and some attitudinal variables are in line with the existing literature: men and technology users have a greater intention to use autonomous technology in general. Regarding location, the traditional French contrast between major urban centers and their surrounding areas does not turn out to influence the intention to use AVs. Even so, more generally, those in low-density urban areas are less likely to use autonomous shuttles, although there is no relationship with the intention to use robotaxis. Conversely, living in a multipolar area increases the intention to use both autonomous modes. These results render policy recommendations complex and challenging. Despite certain novel results in our work, it is difficult to propose sharp autonomous-mobility policy recommendations to local authorities. First, any benefit of autonomous shuttles in low-density areas (essentially to bring first-mile mobility users to mass transport nodes such as railway stations) does not appear in our analysis, although the conclusions are less clear for robotaxis.

Table 1 . Estimation results

 1

		Intention to use Autonomou s shuttles Robotaxis	Urban representations City as an City as a instrument way of life	Perception of the future	Environment al sensitivity
		(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Socio-demographic characteristics
	Female	-0.148***	-0.111***	0.097	-0.033	-0.092**	0.079
		(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.073)	(0.070)	(0.040)	(0.081)
	Age (ref. Under 30)
	Between 30 and 44	0.037	0.070	0.155	-0.341***	-0.111*	-0.106
		(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.114)	(0.108)	(0.063)	(0.121)
	Between 45 and 54	0.128*	0.151**	0.264**	-0.179	-0.143**	-0.076
		(0.066)	(0.065)	(0.122)	(0.117)	(0.068)	(0.132)
	55 and over	0.142**	0.162***	0.410***	0.079	-0.146**	-0.073
		(0.063)	(0.062)	(0.112)	(0.107)	(0.062)	(0.122)
	Couple (vs. single)	-0.013	-0.040	0.100	-0.245***	-0.054	-0.209**
		(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.088)	(0.084)	(0.049)	(0.094)
	Child(ren) at home	0.021	-0.025	-0.000	0.052	0.118**	0.098
		(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.088)	(0.084)	(0.049)	(0.098)
	Tertiary education	0.069*	0.039	0.464***	0.270***	0.132***	0.114
		(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.074)	(0.070)	(0.041)	(0.083)
	Type of municipality (Ref.
	Highly or mediumly-dense
	urban area)
	Low-density urban area	-0.138**	-0.060	-0.307**	-0.877***	-0.054	-0.518**
		(0.070)	(0.070)	(0.132)	(0.126)	(0.073)	(0.221)
	Multipolar area	0.109*	0.099*	-0.070	-0.955***	-0.183***	0.112
		(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.111)	(0.106)	(0.063)	(0.116)
	Attitudinal variables and technophilia characteristics
	Perception of the future	0.068**	0.085***
		(0.030)	(0.030)
	Environmental sensitivity	0.175*	0.094
		(0.098)	(0.096)
	Urban representations
	City as an instrument	-0.034***	-0.037***
		(0.010)	(0.010)
	City as a way of life	0.039***	0.043***
		(0.011)	(0.011)
	Technophilia
	characteristics
	Has a Smartphone	0.153**	0.166***
		(0.061)	(0.061)
	Has a tablet	0.182***	0.199***
	Mobility characteristics, travel habits and
	representations
	Has a driving license	0.056	-0.064
		(0.075)	(0.074)
	Household number of cars	0.057**	-0.022
		(0.029)	(0.028)
	Main modes of transport

  Note:The number of observations is 3,297. 'Std. Dev.' is Standard Deviation.

	Different possibilities combined (car, public transport)	0.23	0.42	0	1
	Exclusively public transport (bus, subway and tramway)	0.16	0.37	0	1
	Exclusively car	0.29	0.45	0	1
	Exclusively active modes of transport	0.32	0.47	0	1
	Source: Chronos and L'ObSoCo 2017.

For further details on the survey, see http://lobsoco.com/. Among the respondents, those who declared 'Don't know' for the intention to use on-demand and/or collective autonomous vehicles questions were dropped from the sample.

The Bartlett test of sphericity concludes that the factor analysis is relevant, and the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure of sampling adequacy is 0.88, indicating that the sampling method is adequate. The scree plot which shows the eigenvalues and the number of factors indicates the presence of two factors.

The following areas were considered by the authors: Austin, Texas, United States[START_REF] Bansal | Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective[END_REF]; Puget Sound, Washington, United States[START_REF] Wang | Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys[END_REF]; 109 countries (40 countries with at least 25 respondents):[START_REF] Kyriakidis | Public opinion on automated driving: Results of an international questionnaire among 5000 respondents[END_REF]; Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States[START_REF] Schoettle | A survey of public opinion about autonomous and selfdriving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia[END_REF].

We do not here consider privately-owned self-driving cars, as a driver's license may well be required for the use of private cars (even if self-driving) for legal reasons, contrary to autonomous shuttles and robotaxis.

Acknowledgements:

We thank two anonymous reviewers for their fruitful comments. We thank the VEDECOM Institute who provided financial support for the conduct of this research, Chronos and L'ObSoCo for the elaboration of the questionnaire and data collection, Mireille Appel-Muller, Yuna Conan and Patricia Jonville for their implication in the construction of the questionnaire. VEDECOM was also involved in the decision to submit the article for publication.


Rajae Sabhi

Mariam El Bahbouhi

Amine Fraine

Noureddine Abdelbaki

Omar Taouab

E L Bahbouhi

Taouab Omar Sabhi Rajae

Abdelbaki Noureddine

Taouab Omar

The impact of the generalization of the social protection system: Implementation and challenges L'impact de la généralisation du système de protection sociale : Mise en oeuvre et défis

Keywords: Morocco, challenges, social protection, public policy, implementation

niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

 (CESE, 2015). Dans ce contexte, le Maroc a entrepris une réforme majeure du secteur de la santé, notamment avec le lancement de la généralisation de la protection sociale en 2020. Cette réforme ambitieuse soulève des questions ; dont notre étude vice à y répondre.

Notre étude repose sur une revue de littérature exhaustive, rassemblant des données et des travaux existants portant sur le système de protection sociale au Maroc. L'analyse descriptive des différentes sources met en lumière les tendances clés en matière de financement de la protection sociale dans le pays ; un des enjeux majeurs réside dans les défis de cette réforme de la généralisation de la protection sociale. Son succès dépendra essentiellement de la capacité du gouvernement à mobiliser de manière durable et équitable les ressources financières nécessaires pour garantir la sécurité économique et sociale de la population. Les défis liés à la collecte efficace des fonds, à la viabilité et à la pérennité du système, ainsi qu'à l'amélioration de l'efficacité et de l'équité des prestations sociales nécessitent une attention particulière. Néanmoins, l'accès limité à des informations actualisées a constitué une entrave à l'analyse approfondie de certaines caractéristiques financières, rendant complexe l'évaluation exhaustive des enjeux. En conclusion, notre étude souligne l'importance critique de l'analyse continue et approfondie de la mise en oeuvre de la protection sociale au Maroc, ainsi que la nécessité de surmonter les obstacles actuels pour assurer le succès et la durabilité de cette réforme essentielle.

Mots-clés : Maroc ; défis ; protection sociale ; Politique publique ; implémentation.

Introduction:

The widespread introduction of social protection in Morocco represents considerable potential for reducing poverty, alleviating exclusion and reducing social disparities. It is also designed to reinforce political stability and foster social harmony. In addition, it promises to support economic progress by preserving household incomes, thereby promoting domestic consumption, the fundamental driver of Morocco's economic prosperity. 7 Since independence, Morocco has maintained its commitment to guaranteeing social security for its citizens. The foundations of social protection, particularly in terms of healthcare and support for the elderly, date back to the period of the protectorate. During this period, French civil servants set up mutual aid societies, which were later transformed or merged with others to ensure their long-term survival. In 1930, the Caisse marocaine de retraite (CMR) was created, initially providing a compulsory civil pension for French citizens, later extended to Moroccan personnel. Despite major reforms to the country's health and social protection systems over the past two decades, such as the adoption of the basic code of medical coverage, the introduction of Compulsory Health Insurance (AMO), family allowances, the Medical Assistance Scheme (RAMED) and pension scheme reforms, various criticisms have been levelled at legal, regulatory, financial and governance issues. 8 In addition, the country's unwavering commitment to international social protection standards is illustrated by the adoption of Convention 102 concerning Social Security, also known as the Minimum Standard, by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in 2012. This convention has been officially approved. By law n°47-12 and published in BO n°6140 of 23 Joumada I 1434 (April 4, 2013). It should be noted that the Moroccan Constitution of 2011, in Article 31, emphasizes the State's commitment to guaranteeing its citizens equal access to essential rights such as health and social protection. In line with this constitutional provision, Morocco has undertaken a comprehensive social protection project, to be implemented over a five-year period starting in 2020. The estimated annual budget for this project is around 51 billion dirhams, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance in 2021.

7 Caisse Nationale de Sécurité Sociale (CNSS). (2020). Rapport d'activité 2020.

Given the significant financial implications of this initiative, it becomes imperative to examine how Morocco intends to finance this ambitious project. While the objective of providing social protection is laudable and essential to the well-being of citizens, it is essential to take into account the current economic challenges and potential obstacles that could hinder the country's ability to secure the necessary financial resources. One of the main challenges facing Morocco is, above all, to achieve sustainable economic growth. Although the country has enjoyed a period of stable growth in recent years, it is crucial to assess whether this growth will be sufficient to finance the widespread implementation of social protection. The allocation of budgetary resources could face increased difficulties due to the additional financial requirements arising from this project.

It is therefore imperative to determine whether Morocco has sufficient internal financial resources to support this initiative, or whether it will need to explore external financing avenues.

There is also the question of long-term financial sustainability. Even if social protection measures are to be implemented over a five-year period, it is crucial to ensure that funding continues beyond this period. Financial projections must take into account economic fluctuations, demographic changes and evolving social needs. What is the impact of Morocco's social protection system in terms of its implementation and the challenges it faces?

The challenges are compounded by problems relating to the governance of the social protection system, its diversity, lack of coordination, fragmentation, overlap and dysfunction.

With over a hundred social support and protection programs, ranging from universal transfers to targeted mechanisms for specific categories of the population, the system is faced with significant complexities. What's more, the financial equilibrium of certain pension schemes has deteriorated, and was severely impacted by the Covid-19 health crisis. In the medium and long term, the future impact of the generalization of social protection, requiring an annual mobilization of 51 billion dirhams, calls for a reassessment of the governance of social coverage and the healthcare system as a whole, as well as its financing. It is therefore legitimate to ask how Morocco intends to ensure the longevity and sustainability of its social protection system.

The aim of this article is firstly to assess the sustainability of the current social protection system, encompassing aspects such as child support, care for the elderly, medical coverage and unemployment benefits. Secondly, it aims to examine the impact of implementation and the challenges facing the social protection system, while proposing new ways of generating additional income and maintaining a social balance for the country.

Social security system and major objectives

Social protection is a concept that, while not universally accepted in its interpretation, finds consensus around its lofty goal: to ensure every individual's right to a dignified quality of life (WSM et al., 2010). Originally designed to protect workers in the formal sector, the concept of social protection has undergone a remarkable evolution. It now encompasses both public and private measures, consolidating its position as one of the four fundamental pillars of the strategic framework for dignified employment (Frota, 2007). Social protection represents a comprehensive set of community provisions designed to enable individuals or households to cope with the negative repercussions of social vulnerabilities in a dignified manner. These vulnerabilities, be they ageing, disability, unemployment or family responsibilities, can potentially lead to a depletion of financial resources or an increase in expenditure (Ndiaye et al., 2020). In short, social protection is an essential pillar for guaranteeing everyone a safety net in the face of life's hazards, while promoting a more equitable and inclusive society.

There is no doubt that social protection plays an important role in promoting economic growth and social development within nations. By safeguarding household incomes and stimulating domestic demand, social protection paves the way for transformative changes in national economies (World Bank, 2021). It promotes the creation of sustainable, inclusive growth, facilitates the creation of decent work opportunities and fosters an entrepreneurial environment conducive to long-term success. Recognizing the vital importance of social protection, the United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights affirms that it is both a fundamental human right and an essential prerequisite for development and progress. Social protection is a crucial tool for mitigating risks, preserving social cohesion and preventing the widespread occurrence of poverty, inequality and social exclusion at all stages of life. Its absence is a major obstacle to economic and social progress.

Economic foundations of social security coverage

Social protection is an area of vital importance, attracting the interest of a large number of socioeconomic researchers. Various articles have made significant contributions to shed light on the theoretical foundations of social protection as well as its evolution over time. In his article, Laurent ( 2018) offers an in-depth analysis of the evolution of the concept of social protection.

He highlights the transition from the management of social uncertainties, characteristic of the traditional welfare state, to risk management, which integrates environmental and sustainable dimensions into its social protection policies. This shift is taking place against a backdrop of growing socio-ecological challenges. The emergence of the social-ecological state underscores the need to reconcile environmental concerns with economic and social security objectives. This enriching contribution sheds new light on social protection as an essential tool for meeting the complex challenges of our times.

For his part, Strobel (2003) examines the adaptations and transformations of Nordic social protection systems in the 1990s. His work highlights the capacity of these systems to adapt to economic, social and political changes, underlining the increased importance of flexibility and responsiveness in maintaining their effectiveness and relevance in a constantly changing context.

In addition, the research of Dang and Zajdela (2009) represents a major contribution that sheds essential light on the ethical foundations justifying state intervention in the field of social and occupational activation. The authors highlight the normative foundations of activation policies, based on theories of justice. Their analysis sheds light on the ethical reasons that justify state intervention to promote the professional and social integration of individuals in vulnerable situations, while respecting the principles of equity and solidarity. They also highlight the importance of social inclusion in the design of activation policies, showing how these policies aim to guarantee equitable access to economic and social opportunities and benefits for all, including those in precarious situations. This research offers varied perspectives on the complex relationship between social protection and economic growth, highlighting the crucial importance of well-designed social policies in promoting economic growth that is sustainable, inclusive and beneficial to society as a whole.

Provisional research methodology :

The research methodology adopted aims to support the study of the generalization of the social protection system, its implementation and the challenges arising from it. In this article, we aim to compile existing theoretical work on these specific aspects. To guide this study in the best possible way, we conducted an impartial analysis of the academic literature and relevant documentary sources. Our research focused on consulting scientific articles and examining data from national and international organizations. This information was used as a basis for assessing the strategies deployed in response to the challenges posed by the generalization of the social protection system.

Impact of the social protection system :

a-1 The effect of social protection on economic development :

As an in-depth study conducted by the prestigious World Bank in 2016 shows, a 10% increase in the extent of health insurance coverage is intrinsically linked to a commendable 0.3% increase in the pace of economic expansion. This remarkable correlation between social protection and development progress has been consistently reaffirmed by rigorous economic research.

Collectively, these studies present a multitude of perspectives illuminating the complex relationship between social protection and economic growth. They underline the fundamental importance of carefully designed social policies in fostering sustainable, inclusive and universally beneficial economic growth. Arjona, Ladaique and Pearson (2002) examine the complex correlation between social protection and economic growth. Their survey examines the implementation of social protection policies in various OECD countries, carefully assessing their influence on overall economic performance. They carefully analyze the effects of these policies on crucial parameters such as productivity, employment, investment and innovation, while also examining their role in mitigating social inequalities. Their empirical findings offer valuable guidance to policymakers seeking to develop sustainable and inclusive social protection strategies for economic growth. Research by Galor and Zeira (1993) examines the impact of income redistribution through social protection policies on economic growth. Their findings reveal that equitable redistribution policies can promote more inclusive economic growth.

Hemerijck (2012) analyzes the transformations of welfare states and their impact on economic growth and social stability. He comes to the significant conclusion that changes in social protection policies have profound repercussions on the economic and societal dynamics of nations. Huber and Stephens (2001) explore the evolution of social protection policies in various national contexts and their resilience in the face of global market pressures. They conclude that the ability of welfare states to adapt to global economic pressures depends on the specific policies adopted by governments and political parties. In his research, Rodrik (2000) examines the role of institutions, including social protection policies, in promoting high-quality, sustainable economic growth. His findings underline the indispensability of strong, well-designed institutions, including social protection policies, for sustainable economic growth. In accordance with the prestigious provisions enshrined in the Moroccan Constitution of 2011, it is the solemn duty of the State, alongside public institutions and local authorities, to employ all available resources to ensure fair and unhindered access to healthcare and medical coverage for all citizens. Furthermore, the State is committed to promoting a society that upholds the principles of social protection and mutual solidarity, under the auspices of a well-organized framework established by the State. In pursuit of this noble commitment, Morocco is embarking on a momentous journey of social reform, aimed at strengthening programs that have proved their relevance and effectiveness, while reorganizing those that have failed to meet their objectives. In addition, our nation is determined to extend coverage to vulnerable populations, and to establish an integrated and competent governance structure to oversee the entire healthcare system, ensuring coherence, efficiency and effectiveness throughout.

9 Initiative d'Evaluations Inter-Agences de la Protection Sociale (ISPA), 2016.

The large-scale implementation of social protection is of immense importance, as it promotes the harmonious integration of the informal sector into the wider national economy, while safeguarding the fundamental rights of workers. This noble undertaking comprises several phases, including the gradual expansion of compulsory basic health insurance over the years 2021 and 2022, encompassing vulnerable groups such as beneficiaries of the RAMED program, as well as self-employed workers.

In addition, this visionary proposal aims to extend the scope of family benefits over the coming years, 2023 and 2024. By extending financial support to households that do not currently benefit from such assistance, we aim to ease the burden of raising children. This support will be provided in the form of a single, substantial compensation payment, ensuring that every family can adequately care for their offspring. By 2025, our aim is to promote inclusivity within the pension system by including people who currently have no form of pension plan at all. Specifically tailored to self-employed professionals and the self-employed engaged in liberal activities, this pension scheme will enable these hard-working people to secure their future and enjoy the fruits of their labor. In addition, this proposal aims to establish a comprehensive framework for compensating those who will lose their jobs in 2025, by streamlining eligibility conditions and broadening the scope of potential beneficiaries. In terms of financing, this ambitious initiative is based on two fundamental principles: a contributory mechanism aimed primarily at those with the means to contribute, generating a significant sum of 28 billion dirhams, and a solidarity mechanism dedicated to alleviating the burden on the underprivileged, amounting to 23 billion dirhams. As a result, this effort represents a major commitment for the State's financial resources, underlining its profound importance and urgency. Before 2005, only a small fraction -16% to be exact -of the population had access to basic medical coverage. Yet, thanks to the unwavering dedication of this esteemed royal initiative, Morocco has succeeded in extending this coverage, positively impacting 70.2% of the Moroccan population by 2020. Nevertheless, it is imperative that we emphasize the indispensability of continued vigilance, the cultivation of new technical and organizational expertise, and the establishment of robust management and support mechanisms to truly implement this reform. In essence, this approach highlights the fact that the conventional model of state operation is becoming increasingly inadequate in the light of recent progress, and even more so in a future riddled with uncertainty.

The challenges and stakes of social protection

The AMO-CNOPS and AMO-CNSS mutual insurance schemes managed to cover 10.3 million people this year, the majority (70.4%) being covered by AMO-CNSS. However, despite having been in operation for over 15 years, these schemes only manage to cover 36% of the population, leaving a significant proportion without medical cover. To solve this problem, the country has set up the Medical Assistance Scheme (RAMED), which aims to extend coverage to people not affiliated to the above-mentioned schemes. Unfortunately, even with RAMED in place, some 39% of the Moroccan population remains without medical coverage. To improve access to healthcare, all RAMED beneficiaries will be automatically enrolled in the basic health insurance they need for the school year, easing the financial burden on families. In the 2020-2021 academic year alone, more than 4.4 million students benefited from this initiative. However, despite the positive impact of these programs, their limited scope and specific eligibility criteria unfortunately result in countless vulnerable children being excluded from the benefit of adequate social security measures. As a result, family allowances are often seen as a mere income supplement rather than a comprehensive form of social protection for children.

Results

An in-depth exploration of social protection in Morocco reveals a series of fundamental findings that merit particular attention. Firstly, the impact of social protection on economic development is clear. According to an in-depth study by the World Bank in 2016, the extension of health insurance coverage is correlated with a notable increase in economic growth. A 10% increase in health insurance coverage is associated with a substantial 0.3% increase in the pace of economic expansion. This finding highlights the essential role of social protection as a catalyst for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

In addition, economic research by Arjona, Ladaique and Pearson ( 2002) highlights the complexity of the relationship between social protection and economic growth. Their in-depth analysis of social protection policies in OECD countries highlights the influence on various parameters, from productivity and innovation to employment and investment. These findings underline the crucial importance of designing appropriate social policies to promote overall economic growth and the reduction of social inequalities.

The work of Galor and Zeira (1993) also reveals that income redistribution through social protection policies can have a significant impact on economic growth. Equitable redistribution policies are able to foster more inclusive growth, by ensuring that economic benefits are distributed more equitably across society.

Hemerijck (2012) adds a further perspective by examining the transformations of welfare states and their impact on economic growth and social stability. His findings highlight the profound influence of social protection policies on the economic and social dynamics of nations. These findings underline the need to think carefully about social policy reforms to maximize their economic effectiveness.

Huber and Stephens (2001) provide a comparative perspective on the evolution of welfare policies in different national contexts. They conclude that the ability of welfare states to adapt to global economic pressures depends on the specific policies adopted by governments and political parties. This underlines the need for a flexible, adaptive approach to meet current economic challenges.

Finally, Rodrik's (2000) research highlights the crucial role of institutions, including social protection policies, in promoting high-quality, sustainable economic growth. His findings underline the need for strong, well-designed institutions, including effective social protection policies, to support sustainable economic growth.

In terms of the impact of the generalization of social protection in Morocco, the results show a strong commitment to the well-being of the population. By judiciously integrating contributory and non-contributory mechanisms, Morocco seeks to guarantee access to healthcare and financial stability for all citizens. However, significant challenges remain. Medical coverage remains limited despite the introduction of RAMED, requiring ongoing efforts to extend medical protection.

The precariousness of employment, particularly in the informal sector, represents a major challenge to the establishment of a solid contributory model. Programs such as TAYSSIR play an essential role in providing direct assistance to vulnerable households in this context. Finally, the issue of targeted programs has been identified as a major challenge. Although initiatives such as family allowances have had a positive impact, their specific eligibility criteria exclude some vulnerable children. It is therefore necessary to rethink these programs to make them more inclusive.

In sum, the results of this analysis underline the importance of social protection in Morocco, both for the well-being of citizens and for the country's economic growth. However, significant challenges remain, particularly with regard to medical coverage, job insecurity and the design of social programs. These results highlight the need for further reforms and efforts to create a stronger, more inclusive social protection system for the entire Moroccan population.

ISSN : 2658-9311

Vol : 3, Numéro 22, Février 2024

Discussion

The results of this study highlight several crucial issues relating to social protection in Morocco, as well as significant implications for the future of this system. The following discussion addresses these key issues and explores the implications further:

The impact of social protection on economic development: The results of this study confirm the importance of social protection as a driver of economic growth. The data show a positive correlation between the extension of health insurance coverage and economic growth. This underlines the importance of carefully designed social policies to support long-term economic growth.Job insecurity and the informal sector: The analysis reveals that job insecurity, particularly in the informal sector, remains a major challenge to the implementation of a sound contributory model. Direct support programs for vulnerable households, such as TAYSSIR, play a crucial role in providing assistance in this context. However, broader reforms are needed to address this issue holistically.

The design of social programs: Although programs such as family allowances have had a positive impact, their specific eligibility criteria exclude some vulnerable children. It is essential to rethink these programs to make them more inclusive, and to ensure that social protection reaches those who need it most.Implications for the future: This study highlights the need for further reform of Morocco's social protection system. This includes extending medical coverage, improving job security and revising social programs to make them more inclusive. It is also crucial to secure sustainable funding to maintain these reforms over the long term.

Challenges and opportunities: Morocco faces significant challenges in building a robust and inclusive social protection system. However, there are also opportunities, including the possibility of fostering sustainable economic growth and reducing social inequalities. It is essential to meet these challenges while capitalizing on the opportunities.

In conclusion, this discussion highlights the importance of social protection in Morocco and the challenges the country faces in implementing it effectively. The results of this study provide crucial information to guide future reforms and ensure that social protection benefits the entire Moroccan population.

Conclusion

In conclusion, an in-depth study of the impact of Morocco's generalized social protection system reveals a complex set of challenges that require constant attention and innovative solutions. It is undeniable that the introduction of widespread social protection offers considerable potential for improving the quality of life of Moroccan citizens, by reducing poverty, alleviating social inequalities and reinforcing political stability. However, achieving these ambitious goals is not without its pitfalls.

First and foremost, the challenge of financing remains a concern. Morocco needs to mobilize significant financial resources to support this project, while ensuring that this funding is sustainable over the long term, despite economic fluctuations and demographic changes. Prudent financial management and strategic planning are essential to maintain the financial viability of the social protection system. Secondly, the governance of the social protection system needs to be rethought to overcome the problems of fragmentation, coordination and overlapping programs. Simplifying and streamlining the system can improve its efficiency and its ability to respond effectively to the real needs of the population, while avoiding the current complexity.

Thirdly, it is imperative that Morocco actively explores alternative sources of funding to complement its internal resources. Public-private partnerships, foreign investment and other innovative mechanisms can ensure that the necessary funds are available to support this ambitious initiative.Finally, ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the impact of the social protection system is crucial to ensure that it meets its objectives and adapts to the changing needs of society. This requires constant vigilance, periodic adjustments and policy revision based on the results obtained.

In summary, the generalization of social protection in Morocco represents a noble effort to improve citizens' quality of life, but it requires strategic management, long-term planning and substantial reforms to meet the financial, governance and efficiency challenges. By adopting a thoughtful and adaptable approach, Morocco can aspire to build a more stable, inclusive and prosperous future for all its people.

  et les défis liés à la généralisation du système de protection sociale au Maroc sont au coeur de cette étude. Depuis les années 2000, le Maroc a lancé plusieurs programmes de protection sociale pour lutter contre la pauvreté, améliorer la couverture sociale des travailleurs et relever d'autres enjeux socio-économiques. Toutefois, malgré ces efforts, ces dispositifs sont souvent perçus comme fragmentés, limités, inégaux et fragiles, selon le Conseil Économique, Social et Environnemental

b- 1

 1 The impact of generalized social protection on Morocco Social protection occupies an important place on the State's agenda, as it is an essential tool for mitigating economic and social vulnerabilities while guaranteeing the well-being of the population. According to the renowned Interagency Social Protection Assessment Initiative (ISPA) 9 , social protection encompasses a series of policies and programs meticulously designed to prevent and protect individuals, particularly those belonging to vulnerable segments, from poverty, vulnerability and social exclusion throughout their lives. This noble objective is also supported by the prestigious Conseil économique, social et environnemental (CESE), which defines social protection as a comprehensive framework comprising insurance and solidarity mechanisms, social security and assistance, both contributory and non-contributory, with the ultimate aim of guaranteeing quality healthcare and financial stability for all individuals at every stage of their lives.10 Morocco's social protection system harmonizes the best aspects of the Bismarckian and Beveridgian models, strategically integrating the principles most likely to strengthen the country's social protection. This comprehensive system comprises a contributory facet, exemplified by renowned institutions such as CNSS and CNOPS, a partially contributory dimension represented by the prestigious RAMED program, and a non-contributory dimension encompassing renowned programs such as Tayssir, Kafala and social protection institutions designed to cater for people facing adversity. These distinct elements have been introduced thoughtfully and progressively, responding meticulously to the unique needs and difficulties faced by the population.

✓

  Arjona, R., Ladaique, M., & Pearson, M. (2002). Social protection and growth. OECD Economic Studies, 35(1), 7-49. ✓ World Bank. (2021). World Bank Morocco Economic Situation Monitoring Report, Autumn 2021: from recovery to acceleration. ✓ World Bank. (2021). World Bank Morocco Economic Situation Monitoring Report, Autumn 2021: from recovery to acceleration. ✓ Caisse Nationale de Sécurité Sociale (CNSS). (2020). Rapport d'activité 2020. ✓ CGEM (April 2018), "L'économie informelle : impacts sur la compétitivité des entreprises", Maroc Dossiers de Recherches en Economie et Gestion : Dossier 10, N° 1 : Mars 2022. ✓ Commission des Affaires Sociales et de la Solidarité (2018), "Social protection in Morocco Review, assessment and strengthening of social security and assistance systems", Morocco. ✓ Cour des Comptes. (2020). Report for 2019 and 2020. ✓ Dang, A. & Zajdela, H. (2009). Fondements normatifs des politiques d'activation: un éclairage à partir des théories de la justice. Recherches économiques de Louvain, 75, 313-352. ✓ Frota, L. (2007, November 26). Global campaign on extending social security to all [STEP Programme, ILO Social Security Department]. ✓ Galor, O., & Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics. The Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 35-52. ✓ Huber, E., & Stephens, J. D. (2001). Development and crisis of the welfare state: Parties and policies in global markets. University of California Press. ✓ Initiative d'Evaluations Inter-Agences de la Protection Sociale (ISPA), 2016. ✓ Laurent, É. (2018). Social protection: from uncertainty to risk, from the welfare state to the social-ecological state. Revue Française de Socio-Économie, 20, 191-194. ✓ Ministry of Economy and Finance. (2019). Politique Publique Integrée de la Protection Sociale 2020-2030.

2658-9311 Vol : 3, Numéro 22, Février 2024

  scheme (AMO) managed by the CNSS, as of December 1, 2022. Through a partnership with the National Initiative for Human Development, this program equips students from disadvantaged backgrounds with the supplies 10 Commission des Affaires Sociales et de la Solidarité (2018), "Social protection in Morocco Review, assessment and strengthening of social security and assistance systems", Morocco.

11

Thus, due to the constraints imposed by the contributory model, influenced by the significant presence of the informal sector representing over 30%

(Lahlou, K. et al. 2020)

, and the neglect of the self-employed, Morocco has implemented various funds and initiatives aimed at remedying these limitations by directly assisting the most vulnerable households. A prominent example is the TAYSSIR program, which specifically targets households residing in the poorest communes and aims to combat school dropout rates through conditional cash transfers. By the end of 2019, this program had reached nearly 2 million students in both rural and urban areas, with a budget commitment of around 4 billion dirhams (MEF, 2019).

Several notable programs have been created to support children in need, including the Direct

Assistance program for vulnerable widows caring for orphans. Since its implementation in 2014, this program has provided essential assistance to 114,851 widows, responsible for the welfare of 195,000 orphans. The total investment in this initiative, which amounts to around 2.876 billion dirhams, is testament to the commitment and dedication of the Royal Initiative "a million schoolbags". 11 Ministry of Economy and Finance. (2019). Politique Publique Integrée de la Protection Sociale 2020-2030.

ISSN :

New avenues of research

Future research could focus on several key areas to better understand the impact of the generalization of social protection in Morocco. Firstly, it would be essential to assess the longterm social and economic outcomes of this policy, looking at its concrete effects on poverty reduction, access to healthcare, employment and political stability; in addition, it would be relevant to analyze the effectiveness of the various programs included in the Moroccan social protection system. An in-depth study of each program would make it possible to identify specific advantages and disadvantages, as well as to formulate recommendations for improvement. In addition, an international comparison with other countries with similar social protection systems could offer useful insights for assessing best practices and learning from the experiences of other nations; the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on social protection systems worldwide, including in Morocco. It would therefore be crucial to examine in detail how this health crisis has influenced the implementation of social protection, with particular emphasis on pension schemes and long-term financial sustainability; in addition, in-depth demographic analysis and future projections could help to anticipate social protection needs, particularly with an aging population. This analysis could also highlight future challenges in terms of resources and social support.

A study of citizens' perception of and satisfaction with the social protection system would provide a better understanding of how it is perceived by the population, and would enable us to gather suggestions for improvement directly from beneficiaries. The governance of the social protection system raises important questions. In-depth research into the problems of fragmentation, coordination, program overlap and governance in general could suggest specific reforms to improve the system's efficiency and transparency. Finally, an analysis of the environmental sustainability of social protection policies, particularly with regard to natural resource sustainability and climate change adaptation strategies, could be crucial as Morocco continues to mainstream social protection. A comparative cost-benefit study could also help to assess financial viability and social benefits holistically.