Natalie J Shook
email: njshook@vcu.edu

Russell H Fazio

Roommate Relationships: A Comparison of Interracial and Same-Race Living Situations

Keywords: academic achievement, contact hypothesis, intergroup relations, roommate relationships

The effects of same-race versus interracial dormitory roommate relationships were explored with regard to relationship dissolution and academic achievement (i.e., grade point average). The present investigation made use of archival data spanning two academic years at a large, relatively diverse university. Of primary interest were White and African American fi rst-year students assigned to White or African American roommates upon their arrival on campus. Another factor that was incorporated into this analysis was whether students requested to live with their roommates or were randomly assigned. Interracial roommate relationships were more likely to dissolve than either same-race White or same-race African American relationships. Randomly assigned living situations were less successful than ones in which roommates requested to share a room. Concerning grade point average at the end of the fi rst academic quarter, African American fi rst-year students tended to do better in interracial living situations, whereas White fi rst-year students' academic success was not affected by roommate race. Instead, White fi rst-year students were more sensitive to the academic abilities of their roommates. Results are discussed with regard to the implications for intergroup contact.

Over the past few decades a great deal of research has focused on understanding prejudice, with hopes of illuminating how intergroup confl ict might be reduced. One of the primary theories regarding prejudice reduction is the 'contact hypothesis' [START_REF] Allport | The nature of prejudice[END_REF][START_REF] Pettigrew | Intergroup contact theory[END_REF]. The underlying assumption of the theory is that increased interaction between members of different groups leads to a reduction in hostility and prejudice between the two groups (see [START_REF] Brewer | Intergroup relations[END_REF][START_REF] Pettigrew | Intergroup contact theory[END_REF]Pettigrew & Tropp, 2006, for reviews). The more contact between groups, the more the group members can learn about their similarities, rather than their differences, and disconfi rm negative beliefs and feelings. [START_REF] Allport | The nature of prejudice[END_REF] posited that four conditions were necessary to facilitate the success of intergroup contact: equal group status in the contact situation; intergroup cooperation; common goals; and the support of authorities, law, or custom. Further research suggests that two additional conditions promote intergroup contact. The fi rst factor is the opportunity for personal interaction between the individual group members, which allows for self-disclosure and social comparison [START_REF] Amir | The role of intergroup contact in change of prejudice and race relations[END_REF][START_REF] Brewer | Beyond the contact hypothesis: Theoretical perspectives on desegregation[END_REF][START_REF] Miller | Personalization and the promise of contact theory[END_REF]. Through the sharing of intimate information, trust and familiarity are encouraged, and individuals are more likely to overcome perceived differences and see more similarity between one another. Second, the formation of friendships [START_REF] Pettigrew | Intergroup contact theory[END_REF] is a critical contributor to any positive change in prejudice that emerges from intergroup contact. For example, [START_REF] Pettigrew | Generalized intergroup contact effects on prejudice[END_REF] structural equation analyses of cross-sectional data indicate that the path from friendship to reduced prejudice is stronger than the reverse path, that is, that from prejudice to fewer intergroup friends. Longitudinal research by [START_REF] Eller | Come together: Longitudinal comparisons of Pettigrew's reformulated intergroup contact model and Common Ingroup Identity Model in Anglo-French and Mexican-American contexts[END_REF] further attests to the importance of friendship formation for benefi cial intergroup contact. Thus, providing a situation in which interaction is intimate and friendships can easily form should increase the effectiveness of intergroup contact in reducing prejudice.

A real-world situation that meets most of the conditions indicated to benefi t intergroup contact is a dormitory roommate relationship. In this situation, individuals are generally considered to be of equal status. It is a cooperative environment, and students have to work together to achieve a suitable living situation. The dormitory situation also provides a very intimate setting in which frequent and personal interactions may occur, while also providing an ideal opportunity for friendship to form. In addition, a dormitory relationship in which individuals are randomly assigned as roommates controls for concerns of self-selection (i.e., only low prejudice individuals seeking out intergroup contact) [START_REF] Pettigrew | Intergroup contact theory[END_REF]. [START_REF] Van Laar | The effect of university roommate contact on ethnic attitudes and behavior[END_REF] has taken advantage of the random pairing of roommates in college dorms to provide a truly experimental test of the contact hypothesis. Students were tracked over a fi ve-year period, starting their fi rst year of college. Those students who were placed in an interracial roommate relationship earlier in their academic career reported more positive affect toward Blacks, less symbolic racism, and more friendship heterogeneity. Thus, interracial dormitory relationships proved to be benefi cial, supporting the contact hypothesis. Even more recent research has shown such benefi ts to extend beyond self-report measures. Compared with those assigned to a White roommate, Whites randomly assigned to a Black roommate displayed more automatically activated positivity on an implicit measure of racial attitudes [START_REF] Shook | Interracial roommate relationships: An experimental test of the contact hypothesis[END_REF].

Recent research by

Presumably, a key contributor to these positive results is that the interracial relationships were successful and a positive experience. The students developed a satisfactory living situation and probably became friends, which led to the observed benefi ts. However, are such successful interracial relationships always to be expected? To the contrary, some research indicates that interracial dormitory relationships are less satisfying and more problematic than same-race dormitory relationships [START_REF] Phelps | Roommate satisfaction and ethnic identity in mixed-race and white university roommate dyads[END_REF][START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF]. Phelps and colleagues (1998) found that White fi rst-year students with an African American roommate believed that they were less compatible with their roommate than White fi rst-year students randomly assigned to a White roommate. [START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF] found that White fi rstyear students randomly assigned to an African American roommate spent less time together, were less socially involved with one another's networks, and were less likely to continue living with that roommate than White fi rst-year students randomly assigned to another White fi rst-year student. By the end of the fi rst semester at college, 28% of the interracial roommate relationships had dissolved compared with 9% of the same-race relationships. If interracial relationships quickly dissolve, or are viewed as incompatible, the likelihood of friendships forming would not be high. Thus, the potential benefi ts of contact may not come to fruition.

The goal of the present research was to extend previous work comparing interracial roommate relationships with those involving solely White roommates. First, we sought to develop a better understanding of the differential dissolution rates observed in previous research by including a same-race African American roommate comparison. Another novel contribution was to assess the effect of random assignment versus a requested roommate relationship on dissolution rates. Finally, we examined an additional outcome measure of same-race versus interracial dormitory roommate relationships-namely, the effect of roommate type on students' academic success.

It is important to note one key feature of the relatively greater dissolution rate that Towles-Schwen and Fazio (2006) observed among interracial roommate relationships. Their study focused on the differences between interracial living situations consisting of randomly paired White and African American roommates and same-race living situations consisting of two randomly paired White roommates. We wanted to extend these fi ndings by including the comparison of same-race African American roommates. To specify and be confi dent that the higher dissolution of interracial roommate relationships stemmed from racial differences per se, both the same-race White and same-race African American comparisons are necessary. If the relatively greater failure of interracial roommate relationships is due to a lack of commonality and/or negative racial attitudes, then these interracial relationships should be characterized by a higher dissolution rate than is true for samerace African American relationships, just as has been documented relative to same-race White roommates. We expected to see results similar to those of [START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF] with interracial relationships dissolving more than same-race relationships, and we expected the interracial roommates to be less successful than both the same-race White and same-race African American roommates.

Another unique aspect of the roommate relationship we were able to explore that had not been examined in the Towles- [START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF] research was the difference between roommates who were randomly assigned and those who requested to live with one another. We expected that relationships between roommates who requested to live with one another would be more successful than randomly assigned living situations. Presumably, the students who requested their roommates had an existing friendship (or expectation thereof) prior to entering the living situation. The question remains whether, within the requested rooms, a difference might exist between interracial and same-race rooms. Are two Whites, or two African Americans, who requested that they share a room more likely to succeed in doing so than a White and an African American who chose to live together? Given that friendship has been identifi ed as such an important factor regarding the benefi cial effects of intergroup contact on interracial attitudes [START_REF] Pettigrew | Intergroup contact theory[END_REF], we reasoned that pre-existing familiarity would prove paramount. In those cases, actual friendship is likely to exist, or have the potential to develop. The students would not have chosen to share a room if they did not expect a positive relationship. Hence, we did not expect dissolution of interracial rooms to differ from same-race rooms when the living arrangement had been requested.

A second consequence of the dormitory living situation we explored was the effect of roommate type on students' academic achievement, as assessed by grade point average (GPA). We expected to fi nd differences in GPA between students in interracial and same-race rooms. Specifically, we hypothesized that African American students would benefit from the intergroup contact offered by the interracial roommate relationship. Much research indicates that African American students have a more diffi cult time adjusting to college life both socially and academically [START_REF] Allen | Black student, White campus: Structural, interpersonal, and psychological correlates of success[END_REF][START_REF] D'augelli | African American undergraduates on a predominantly White campus: Academic factors, social networks, and campus climate[END_REF][START_REF] Davis | College in Black and White: Campus environment and academic achievement of African American males[END_REF]. A prominent explanation for this discrepancy is socioeconomic factors [START_REF] Chavous | Role of student background, perceptions of ethnic fi t, and racial identifi cation in the academic adjustment of African American students at a predominantly White university[END_REF]. However, another key factor for the adjustment of African American students to college, particularly at predominantly White institutions (PWIs), is interracial experience [START_REF] Adan | Ecological congruence and adaptation of minority youth during the transition to college[END_REF][START_REF] Chavous | Role of student background, perceptions of ethnic fi t, and racial identifi cation in the academic adjustment of African American students at a predominantly White university[END_REF][START_REF] Graham | Prior interracial experience and Black student transition into predominantly White colleges[END_REF]. African American students from more ethnically diverse neighborhoods, high schools, and social networks typically display better adjustment to college life than students from less ethnically diverse environments. That is, they tend to fi t in more and feel less alienated. Specifi cally, African Americans with greater pre-college exposure to Whites report more social satisfaction and comfort, greater attachment to the institution, and greater confi dence in their academic abilities [START_REF] Chavous | Role of student background, perceptions of ethnic fi t, and racial identifi cation in the academic adjustment of African American students at a predominantly White university[END_REF][START_REF] Graham | Prior interracial experience and Black student transition into predominantly White colleges[END_REF]. They also earned higher GPAs [START_REF] Chavous | Role of student background, perceptions of ethnic fi t, and racial identifi cation in the academic adjustment of African American students at a predominantly White university[END_REF][START_REF] Davis | College in Black and White: Campus environment and academic achievement of African American males[END_REF]. Presumably, their earlier intergroup contact better prepared them for the PWI environment and experiences.

Given that the present data stem from a predominantly White university, we hypothesized that African American students with a White roommate would have better GPAs than African American students in same-race rooms. Having a White roommate would allow for greater intergroup contact and may benefi t the African American students to transition to a PWI culture. The smoother transition may be demonstrated in a higher GPA for African American students in interracial rooms, compared with same-race rooms, at the end of the fi rst quarter at college. For the White fi rst-year students, concerns of transitioning to a PWI do not arise, so we did not expect to fi nd differences in GPA due to roommate type. However, as White students have previously reported being less satisfi ed and less happy in an interracial living situation [START_REF] Phelps | Roommate satisfaction and ethnic identity in mixed-race and white university roommate dyads[END_REF][START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF], this dissatisfaction may translate into a poorer GPA. White students may receive slightly lower GPAs in interracial rooms than same-race rooms, to the extent that any greater malaise experienced by those in the interracial situation adversely affects their academic performance.

Method

The University Offi ce of Residence Life provided archival data for fi rst-year students living in dorms during the 2001 and 2002 academic school years. The databases included information regarding dormitory room assignments at the beginning and end of the autumn quarter, student ethnicity, gender, 1 whether students requested their roommates, students' SAT or ACT scores, and students' autumn quarter GPA. Based on this information, each room was coded as to how many students resided in the room, 2 the ethnic make-up of the room, and whether students were randomly assigned to the room or requested to live with each other. Success of each roommate relationship was determined by whether students were still living together at the end of the autumn quarter (i.e., three months later). During the specifi c years of interest, the university was experiencing a housing shortage. As such, it was diffi cult for students to receive a room change during the academic term. Students were encouraged to try to 'work out' differences with their roommates and had to be able to demonstrate these efforts before a room change would be considered. Due to these situational constraints, we expected dissolution rates to be lower than found in previous research [START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF]. However, with the benefi t of the large archival sample, we still expected to fi nd differences between same-race and interracial rooms.

For the purposes of this project, we were only interested in rooms housing first-year students and the comparison between African American and White students. Thus, all analyses were performed on rooms consisting only of fi rst-year students, who were either White or African American. Same-race rooms consisted of rooms housing only African American fi rst-year students or rooms housing only White fi rst-year students. Interracial living situations consisted of a combination of White and African American fi rst-year students.

Results

Archival data description

In all, there were 2744 rooms that fi t the requirements of this project. Of those rooms, 1886 were randomly assigned rooms and 858 were requested rooms. With regard to roommate type, 2271 rooms were same-race White; 332 rooms were interracial; and 141 rooms were samerace African American. Of the same-race White rooms, 1531 (67.4%) were randomly assigned and 740 (32.6%) were requested. Of the interracial rooms, 287 (86.4%) were randomly assigned and 45 (13.6%) were requested. Of the same-race African American rooms, 68 (48.2%) were randomly assigned and 73 (51.8%) were requested. Interestingly, the proportion of interracial rooms that were requested (13.6%) was signifi cantly smaller than was the case for either same-race White rooms (32.6%), Fisher's exact p < .001, or same-race African American rooms (51.8%), Fisher's exact p < .001. In fact, the proportion of requested same-race African American rooms was signifi cantly larger than requested same-race White rooms, Fisher's exact p < .001.

Roommate relationship dissolution

Our main interest with respect to the matter of relationship dissolution was to determine whether interracial roommate situations were more likely to dissolve than same-race White relationships, as had been previously found [START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF], and same-race African American relationships. To examine relationship dissolution, each room was coded as either 0 (no change in room) or 1 (one of the roommates had changed rooms). Binary logistic regression was conducted with this measure as the dependent variable. Roommate Type (interracial, same-race White, or same-race African American) and Room Assignment (random or requested) were entered as categorical covariates (step 1) and the interaction term Roommate Type × Room Assignment was also included (step 2). The effect of Roommate Type was signifi cant, Wald's χ²(2, N = 2744) = 9.85, p = .01. Overall, 50 of the 332 (15.1%) interracial roommate relationships had experienced change in the living situation by the end of the autumn quarter compared with 183 of the 2271 (8.1%) same-race White roommate relationships, Fisher's exact p < .001. Of the same-race African American rooms, 9 of 141 (6.4%) had dissolved by the end of the quarter, which was signifi cantly fewer than the interracial rooms, Fisher's exact p < .01. There was not a signifi cant difference in the success of the same-race White and same-race African American roommates, Fisher's exact p > .30. In general, fi rst-year students assigned to an interracial roommate situation were less likely to remain living in that room by the end of the fi rst quarter compared with same-race White and same-race African American roommate assignments.

There was also a signifi cant effect of the Room Assignment variable, Wald's χ²(1, N = 2744) = 36.12, p < .001. Of the randomly assigned rooms, 213 of the 1886 (11.3%) rooms had dissolved by the end of the quarter compared with 29 of the 858 (3.4%) requested rooms. Thus, the randomly assigned rooms were much less successful than the requested rooms.

The interaction between Roommate Type and Room Assignment was not signifi cant, p > .80. However, to more appropriately compare our results regarding roommate relationship success with Towles-Schwen and Fazio's (2006) fi ndings, and to take advantage of the causal inferences permitted by random assignment, we examined the differences in dissolution between Roommate Type within the two levels of the Room Assignment variable. For randomly assigned rooms, Roommate Type was a signifi cant factor, Wald's χ²(2, N = 1886) = 8.74, p < .02. That is, 47 of the 287 (16.4%) interracial roommates 3 had experienced a change in their living situation by the end of the autumn quarter compared with 160 of the 1531 (10.5%) same-race White roommate relationships, Fisher's exact p < .01. Of the same-race African American rooms, 6 of 68 (8.8%) had dissolved by the end of the quarter-a rate that differed at a marginally signifi cant level from the dissolution rate observed for the interracial rooms, Fisher's exact p < .08. There was no signifi cant difference in the success of the same-race White and same-race African American rooms, Fisher's exact p > .40. For the requested assignment rooms, there were no differences in success between the three different types of rooms, Fisher's exact ps > .20. Thus, interracial roommate relationships were more likely to dissolve than same-race relationships and this pattern was especially apparent when the analysis was restricted to rooms in which the roommates had been randomly assigned (see Figure 1).

Student academic success

To assess student academic success, the unit of analysis was the student instead of the room, and students' autumn quarter GPAs were considered. Our primary interest concerned the effects of Roommate Type and Room Assignment. However, two additional variables were incorporated into the analyses as we reasoned that they could infl uence academic success. First, students' GPAs should be infl uenced by their academic ability and preparedness for college, so we included students' standardized test scores. Students had completed either the SAT or ACT exams before entering college. To create a single variable, SAT and ACT scores were separately standardized, and these z-scores were employed to represent each student's academic ability. Second, students' academic performance might also be affected by their roommates' academic abilities. If students turn to their roommates for help with their schoolwork, or even simply serve as models to one another, those who are assigned to a more academically successful student may benefi t more than those assigned to a less successful student. 4 Thus, a hierarchical regression analysis was conducted predicting autumn quarter GPA from student's own race, roommate's race, room assignment (random or requested), student's standardized exam score, roommate's standardized exam score, and their associated interaction terms. 5 As shown in Table 1, the regression revealed a main effect of student's own race with White students earning higher GPAs than African American students. There was also a main effect of student's standardized exam such For students who requested their roommates, there was an effect of student's standardized exam (b = .15) (t(1362) = 3.32, p = .001). Students with higher standardized test scores earned higher autumn quarter GPAs. Race and roommate's academic abilities did not affect the academic success of students in requested rooms, all ts < 1.

In randomly assigned rooms, the main effect of student's own race emerged (b = .20), t(2628) = 3.81, p < .001, with White students earning higher GPAs than African American students. There was also a main effect of student's standardized exam (b = .13), t(2628) = 7.72, p < .001, such that students with higher standardized test scores earned higher GPAs. Of more interest, however, was an interaction between student's race and the randomly assigned variable of roommate's race (b = -.30), t(2622) = 2.10, p < .04. The interaction is displayed in Figure 2. For White students, the race of their roommate did not affect their GPA. However, African American students attained higher GPAs when assigned to a White roommate than an African American roommate.

To further explore the significant Room Assignment × Student's Race × Roommate's Race × Roommate's Standardized Exam four-way interaction, the sample was split by student's race and hierarchical regression analyses were conducted with roommate's race, student's standardized exam, roommate's standardized exam, and their associated interactions. For African American students, the effect of student's standardized exam was signifi cant (b = .16), t(270) = 2.96, p < .01. There was also a signifi cant interaction between roommate race and student's standardized exam (b = .31), t(267) = 2.67, p = .01. For African American students with lower standardized test scores, roommate race did not affect GPA. However, for African American students with higher standardized test scores, those who were randomly assigned to a White roommate attained higher GPAs (see Figure 3). Thus, an interracial roommate relationship was benefi cial for some African American fi rst-year students.

For White students, the effect of student's standardized exam was signifi cant (b = .13), t(2355) = 7.10, p < .001. There was also an interaction between student's standardized exam and roommate's standardized exam (b = .03), t(2352) = 2.09, p < .04. For White students with low standardized test scores, their roommates' academic abilities did not matter. However, students with high standardized test scores received higher GPAs when randomly assigned to roommates with higher standardized test scores. Thus, the academic success of the White fi rst-year students was infl uenced more by the academic abilities of their roommates, not the race of their roommates.

Discussion

The purpose of the present research was to explore the consequences of intergroup contact for dormitory roommate relationships. Specifi cally, we were interested in the differences in roommate relationship dissolution and academic success between fi rst-year students in an interracial versus a same-race living situation. The results of the research suggest that interracial roommate relationships are less likely to be sought out and, when initiated as a consequence of random assignment, are less likely to remain intact than both samerace White and same-race African American roommate relationships. Interracial roommate relationships were more likely to have dissolved by the end of the fi rst quarter at college than same-race rooms, and there was no difference in the success of same-race White or African American rooms. The difference between the success of the same-race and interracial living situation is possibly due to the anxiety [START_REF] Pettigrew | Intergroup contact theory[END_REF], lack of perceived commonality [START_REF] Phelps | Roommate satisfaction and ethnic identity in mixed-race and white university roommate dyads[END_REF], and/or inappropriate racial attitudes [START_REF] Towles-Schwen | Automatically-activated racial attitudes as predictors of the success of interracial roommate relationships[END_REF] that are more likely to be experienced in an interracial living situation. Interestingly, of the dissolved interracial roommate relationships, there was no difference in the likelihood of an African American or White roommate leaving the situation, which would imply that the discomfort or dissatisfaction with the living situation was equivalent across cases.

The differences in room dissolution were more prominent in randomly assigned rooms than requested room assignments, which raises two points. First, those who were randomly assigned to an interracial living situation and left before the end of the quarter most likely did not benefi t from the intergroup contact. These individuals chose to remove themselves from the situation rather than learn and cooperate to make the living situation work. Although we do not have direct, self-reported measures of attitudes in the present study, it seems likely that their attitudes toward the other group did not improve and may actually have become more negative. This possibility highlights the importance of keeping an individual engaged in the interaction as opposed to seeking an escape. Second, the greater success of the requested interracial living situations demonstrates the importance of friendship for intergroup contact. If an individual is motivated and open to the intergroup contact, the benefi ts are apparent. Having a pre-existing friendship (or the expectation of a friendship) before sharing a dormitory room greatly increased the success of relationships, to the point that there was not a signifi cant difference in the success of interracial versus same-race living situations.

The second consequence of roommate type that we explored was academic success. Random assignment to an interracial living situation seemed to affect students' quarterly GPA, with African American students receiving higher GPAs. Specifi cally, African American students with higher standardized test scores tended to attain higher GPAs when randomly assigned to White roommates rather than African American roommates. For White fi rst-year students, their roommates' race did not affect their academic success. Instead, White fi rst-year students' GPAs were more infl uenced by their roommates' academic abilities. Specifi cally, White fi rst-year students who were more academically successful prior to college attained higher GPAs if assigned to similarly successful roommates. It should be noted that the comparisons regarding roommate race allow for causal inference as students were randomly assigned to their roommates.

Based on these results, it seems that the African American fi rst-year students randomly assigned to White roommates may be benefi ting from the intergroup contact. Previous research has demonstrated that African Americans who had experienced more intergroup contact before college adjusted better to a predominantly White university [START_REF] Adan | Ecological congruence and adaptation of minority youth during the transition to college[END_REF][START_REF] Chavous | Role of student background, perceptions of ethnic fi t, and racial identifi cation in the academic adjustment of African American students at a predominantly White university[END_REF][START_REF] Graham | Prior interracial experience and Black student transition into predominantly White colleges[END_REF]. Having a White roommate may serve the same purpose for an African American fi rst-year student. From the interactions with their White roommates, these students may get a better understanding of the expectations and norms of the university environment. This may be particularly benefi cial for the African American students who were more academically successful prior to college. That is, those who entered college better prepared and able to cope with the curriculum may have excelled with the addition of exposure to a White roommate and the gain of a model of what is expected at a predominantly White university. Thus, these students may have experienced a more successful and easier transition to college life which translated into higher GPAs.

Assignment to an interracial living situation may also benefi t the African American students by increasing their sense of belonging. Recent work by [START_REF] Walton | A question of belonging: Race, social fi t, and achievement[END_REF] demonstrated that African American students' academic satisfaction and academic success are affected by their sense of belonging. In two experiments, they found that African American students who experienced more belonging uncertainty, or less social connectedness in their academic setting, reported less academic fi t, believed that they had less potential to succeed, and received lower GPAs [START_REF] Walton | A question of belonging: Race, social fi t, and achievement[END_REF]. Due to this greater sensitivity to belonging, African American students at a predominantly White university may gain from an interracial roommate relationship. Having a White roommate may provide a better sense of connectedness and belonging in their academic setting, which may not result from a same-race African American roommate relationship. Thus, the higher GPAs for African American students in interracial living situations may be a benefi t of intergroup contact.

The relatively greater academic success of African Americans in interracial living situations may have implications for long-term academic success and sense of belonging at a predominantly White university. That is, the more positive experience for students in the interracial living situations during their fi rst quarter at university may set the tone for the rest of their academic careers. The potentially easier transition to college life and greater academic success may encourage future success and a stronger sense of belonging. Moreover, these early positive experiences may have consequences for racial attitudes. The presumably positive roommate experience and easier adjustment to a predominantly White environment may translate into more positive evaluations of the entire outgroup.

Overall, the present archival data demonstrate that interracial dormitory roommate relationships are more likely to be problematic than same-race relationships. However, it should be noted that despite the higher likelihood of dissolution, the majority of the interracial roommate relationships were still intact at the end of the autumn quarter. Additionally, intergroup contact may benefi t individuals by aiding their adjustment to a new predominantly White institution, translating into better academic performance. Although we did not fi nd specifi c benefi ts for the White students in interracial living situations, we did not fi nd any detriments due to the room type. Also, previous research has found improvements in White students' automatically activated racial attitudes and reduction in intergroup anxiety when they had been randomly assigned to an interracial versus a same-race living situation [START_REF] Shook | Interracial roommate relationships: An experimental test of the contact hypothesis[END_REF]. Importantly, this fi nding stemmed from a housing situation that allowed for very limited room change during the fi rst academic quarter, thus encouraging students to 'work out' the relationship as best they could. Under these conditions of prolonged contact, the White students came to display more favorable racial attitudes and less intergroup anxiety. Thus, overall, interracial roommate relationships seem benefi cial to both majority and minority students.

Limitations and future directions

As the data are archival, there are several limitations. We do not have access to students' subjective experiences in the living situations or in their new college environment. From the dataset, we cannot determine how the roommate relationships developed and what specifi c relationship factors may have contributed to the success of the living situation or students' autumn quarter GPAs. We are also limited as to the background information we have about the students. For example, information about students' previous exposure to intergroup contact could add to our understanding of the basic fi ndings. Focusing on the randomly assigned rooms does control for some of these shortcomings and allow for causal inference. However, interpretation of the results and discussion of underlying mechanisms are necessarily speculative.

Future work should focus on the actual roommate relationships and examine students' evaluations and subjective reports of the individual living situation. By determining the factors that facilitate or hinder the success of interracial living situations, the likelihood of positive intergroup contact within dormitories can be increased. Factors such as social involvement, perceived commonality, and time spent together may be infl uential in determining whether a relationship succeeds and, in turn, may have broader implications for improvement of racial attitudes.

The current research also focused only on the fi rst quarter of college. Particularly with regard to academic success, it is unknown whether the differences would persist beyond the autumn quarter, and if so, for how long. Similarly, it might be useful to examine the effect of the roommate relationship quality on academic success. Extending the time will help determine the extent to which the effect of the initial living situation on academic performance generalizes over time and potentially across later changes in living situations. Particularly with concerns about academic performance and retention, understanding the impact of the first year roommate relationship may be very important. Satisfaction with the initial living situation and support from the roommate may be signifi cant for transitioning to college life and succeeding academically.

Conclusions

The present research highlights some of the consequences, positive and negative, associated with interracial interactions in a dormitory relationship. Specifi cally, the work demonstrates that positive intergroup contact cannot always be expected. Especially noteworthy is the fi nding that students randomly assigned to an interracial living situation were characterized by a higher rate of relationship dissolution than was true for students randomly assigned to a same-race situation. A more positive outcome was apparent with respect to academic achievement. African American students assigned to interracial roommate relationships performed better academically, possibly because the interracial living situation facilitated their transition to a predominantly White university. In sum, the current fi ndings add to our understanding of the consequences of intergroup contact in an extended, real-world situation.

Notes

1. Within the data set, there were 1335 male rooms and 1409 female rooms. Initially, gender was included in the roommate dissolution analyses. However, there were no signifi cant main effects or interactions, p s > .15. As such, analyses are reported collapsed across gender. 2. The majority of the rooms in the dataset that met the specifi c requirements were dyadic (80.3%). However, there were 541 rooms with three or four roommates that met the inclusion criteria. To determine whether these rooms should be included in the roommate dissolution analyses, rooms were coded as either dyadic or larger (i.e., three or four roommates). When this variable was included in the logistic regression equations, a signifi cant effect of room size was evident, Wald's χ²(1, N = 2744) = 8.41, p < .01. Of the dyads, 169 of the 2203 (7.7%) had dissolved by the end of the quarter. By contrast, one (or more) persons moved out in 73 of the 541 (13.5%) rooms consisting of three or four roommates. However, the Room Size variable did not interact with Roommate Type or Room Assignment, ps > .22. Thus, to ease presentation of analysis and maintain the focus of the article, the reported analyses collapsed across Room Size.

3. With the greater dissolution of interracial relationships, we also explored whether the White or the African American roommates were more likely to leave the room. Of the randomly assigned interracial rooms, 54 of the 307 (17.6%) African American roommates left the living situations and 73 of the 420 (17.4%) White roommates left. Thus, there was no difference due to race in who left the interracial rooms, Fisher's exact p > .50. 4. Given our interest in the roommate's aptitude, the analyses were limited to those students residing in double rooms. 5. The academic success analyses were also conducted using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to account for the fact that the individual students were nested within roommate pairs. The HLM analyses yielded similar results to the regression analyses. That is, the signifi cant main effects and interactions found in the regression analyses were also signifi cant or marginally signifi cant in the HLM analyses, ps < .08. Only the marginally signifi cant interaction between Student's Race and Roommate's Standardized Exam (see Table 1) was not evident in the HLM analysis.

For ease of presentation, the regression analyses are featured in the results section.

Figure 1 .

 1 Figure1. Percent of roommate relationships that dissolved within the autumn quarter as a function of roommate type and room assignment.

Figure 2 .

 2 Figure2. Autumn GPA as a function of student's own race and roommate's race (controlling for the students' standardized exam scores), among those randomly assigned.

Figure 3 .

 3 Figure3. African American fi rst-year students' autumn GPA as a function of roommate's race and student's standardized exam scores at values one standard deviation above and below the mean.

Table 1 .

 1 Summary of regression analysis for variables predicting autumn GPA (N = 4000)

	that students with higher test scores earned	separately on students in randomly assigned
	higher GPAs. There were also a number of sig-	versus requested rooms.
	nifi cant three-and four-way interactions. The
	two signifi cant four-way interactions (Room
	Assignment × Student's Race × Roommate's
	Race × Roommate's Standardized Exam and
	Room Assignment × Roommate's Race × Student's
	Standardized Exam × Roommate's Standardized
	Exam) both involved the room assignment
	variable. Hence, to guide interpretation of the
	interactions, regression analyses were conducted
	Variable	M	S D	B	t	∆R ²
	Step 1					.03**
	Room Assignment (RA)	.34	.47	.05	1.57
	Student's Race (R)	.90	.30	.14	2.30*
	Roommate's Race (RR)	.90	.30	-.02	-.34
	Student's Standardized Exam (SSE)	-.05	.96	.14	7.34**
	Roommate's Standardized Exam (RSE)	-.06	.96	.03	1.51
	Step 2					.004
	RA × R	.31	.46	-.22	-1.49
	RA × RR	.31	.46	-.06	-.44
	RA × SSE	-.04	.55	.02	.40
	RA × RSE	-.05	.56	.01	.24
	R × RR	.85	.36	.09	.56
	R × SSE	.07	.82	-.07	-1.15
	R × RSE	.02	.87	-.12	-1.71
	RR × SSE	.02	.86	.09	1.32
	RR × RSE	.07	.83	-.07	-1.15
	SSE × RSE	.42	1.14	.01	.50
	Step 3					.01**
	RA × R × RR	.30	.46	1.23	3.43**
	RA × R × SSE	.00	.47	.04	.23
	RA × R × RSE	-.01	.49	-.19	-1.16
	RA × RR × SSE	-.01	.48	-.12	-.73
	RA × RR × RSE	.00	.48	-.29	-1.86
	RA × SSE × RSE	.15	.72	-.02	-.63
	R × RR × SSE	.07	.80	-.05	-.35
	R × RR × RSE	.07	.80	-.06	-.41
	R × SSE × RSE	.30	.94	.08	1.24
	RR × SSE × RSE	.30	.94	.05	.82
	Step 4					.003*
	RA × R × RR × SSE	.00	.46	.62	1.75
	RA × R × RR × RSE	.00	.47	.72	2.01*
	RA × R × SSE × RSE	.09	.54	.04	.18
	RA × RR × SSE × RSE	.09	.54	-.37	-1.96*
	R × RR × SSE × RSE	.28	.90	-.03	-.21
	Step 5					.001
	RA × R × RR × SSE × RSE	.09	.52	.59	1.47
	*p < .05; **p < .001.


Daniel L Wann Murray

Frederick G Grieve

Paula J Waddill

Jennifer Martin

PhD Daniel L Wann
email: dan.wann@murraystate.edu

Use of Retroactive Pessimism as a Method of Coping with Identity Threat: The Impact of Group Identifi cation

Keywords: group threat, group identifi cation, retroactive pessimism

Retroactive pessimism involves retrospectively lowering one's evaluations of a group's chances for success after a failed competition. Although past research has substantiated the existence of this strategy, investigators have yet to examine how level of group identifi cation might impact the use of retroactive pessimism. Given that coping with group threat is most prominent among persons with high levels of group identifi cation, we hypothesized that displays of retroactive pessimism would be magnifi ed in persons with strong allegiances to a group. This hypothesis was tested by having supporters of two college basketball teams evaluate the chances for victory for each team both prior to the game between the teams and subsequent to the contest. Regression analyses confi rmed expectations (the greatest magnitude of retroactive pessimism was reported by highly identifi ed supporters of the losing team in their evaluations of the winning team). Subsequent analyses revealed that this effect was not mediated by level of disappointment in the outcome.

Psychological research on the hindsight bias [START_REF] Hawkins | Hindsight: Biased judgment of past events after the outcomes are known[END_REF][START_REF] Slovic | On the psychology of experimental surprises[END_REF] indicates that once the outcome of an event becomes a reality, individuals often reconstruct their explanations for the outcome. According to work by Blank and his colleagues [START_REF] Blank | Hindsight bias in political elections[END_REF][START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF], there appear to be three relatively distinct components to the hindsight bias: foreseeability, perceptions of necessity, and memory distortions. Foreseeability concerns our tendency to overestimate the predictability of an outcome. Necessity involves our tendency to perceive a passed outcome as inevitable. Memory distortions involve our 'tendency to misremember', for example, our tendency to recall predictions as more accurate than they actually were.

Recently, Tykocinski and her colleagues provided evidence for a specifi c hindsight bias they refer to as retroactive pessimism [START_REF] Tykocinski | I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments[END_REF][START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF]. Retroactive pessimism occurs when, subsequent to a disappointing outcome, individuals re-evaluate their group's chances for success, concluding that, 'We never really had a chance, anyway.' By adopting such a deterministic belief, persons are better able to cope with threats to their social identity. 1 Because such cognitions involve concluding that an outcome was inevitable, retroactive pessimism is an example of the necessity component of hindsight bias and research indicates that strategic perceptions of necessity can be effective as a coping strategy [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF].

Several studies have documented the existence of retroactive pessimism. For example, [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF] asked fans of two soccer teams to rate their team's chances of victory in an upcoming match both prior and subsequent to the contest. Results indicated that supporters of the winning team reported little change in their pre-to post-match ratings of the teams' chances. Such a fi nding was expected as these persons had little reason to exhibit retroactive pessimism. Conversely, fans of the losing team signifi cantly altered their pre-to post-game perceptions of the teams' chances, reporting that the winning team was more likely to win and the losing team more likely to lose after the competition had taken place. Thus, by adopting a retroactively pessimistic belief that a negative outcome was most likely inevitable, individuals may better cope with a threat to their social identity.

However, one would not expect all group members to act in such a manner. Research on social identity theory [START_REF] Hogg | Social identifi cations: A social psychology of intergroup relations and group processes[END_REF][START_REF] Tajfel | The social identity theory of intergroup behavior[END_REF] indicates that attempts to cope with threat are most prominent among persons with a high degree of group identification [START_REF] Branscombe | The context and content of social identity threat[END_REF][START_REF] Doosje | Guilty by association: When one's group has a negative history[END_REF][START_REF] Wann | Controllability and stability in the self-serving attributions of sport spectators[END_REF]. For these persons, the group or team's performance has relevance to a central component of a valued social identity. For persons with low levels of identifi cation, the role of group member or team follower is only a peripheral component of their identity, at best [START_REF] Branscombe | In-group or out-group extremity: Importance of a threatened social identity[END_REF][START_REF] Crocker | Social stigma and self-esteem: The self-protective properties of stigma[END_REF]. Consequently, these individuals do not feel threatened by poor group performance and have little need to employ coping strategies. Rather, it is 'the combination of an identity threat and strong ingroup identifi cation that elicits group-oriented coping responses' (Ouwerkerk, Ellemers, & de Gilder, 1999, p. 185; see also Doosje, Ellemers, & Spears, 1999;[START_REF] Spears | Self-stereotyping in the face of threats to group status and distinctiveness: The role of group identifi cation[END_REF].

The current investigation was designed to expand on Tykocinski's research [START_REF] Tykocinski | I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments[END_REF][START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF] by examining the impact of identifi cation on expressions of retroactive pessimism among fans of two college basketball teams. Consistent with Tykocinski, participants rated each team's chances of success both prior to a game involving the target teams and subsequent to the contest. With respect to replication of [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF], we expected our respondents to report a similar pattern of retroactive pessimism in which supporters of the eventual losing team would, in retrospect, report lower chances of victory for their team and higher chances of victory for their opponent. Also consistent with the previous work, supporters of the successful team were not expected to exhibit retroactive pessimism because their identity had not been threatened. Thus, we hypothesized that there would be a signifi cant three-way interaction involving the team supported (winner or loser), the team evaluated (winner and loser), and testing session (before the contest and after the contest). Tykocinski and her associates also examined the relationships between the degree of post-game evaluation shifts and emotional reactions to the contest (i.e. happy/ disappointed) for supporters of the losing team. These authors noted that if use of the hindsight bias is a function of distress from an event, one should fi nd a relationship between magnitude of the bias and distress level. Consequently, we hypothesized a pattern in which larger pre-to post-game shifts would be associated with greater levels of disappointment. However, in an attempt to expand on Tykocinski et al.'s (2002) fi ndings, participants reported their identifi cation with their team during the Time 1 session. Consistent with the aforementioned work in social identity theory [START_REF] Branscombe | The context and content of social identity threat[END_REF][START_REF] Ouwerkerk | Group commitment and individual effort in experimental and organizational contexts[END_REF], we expected to fi nd that the use of retroactive pessimism was most prominent among highly identifi ed persons.

With respect to relationships among degree of post-game evaluation shifts, emotional reactions to the contest, and level of identifi cation, research indicates that identifi cation is critical in predicting the intensity of emotional reactions subsequent to watching one's group perform [START_REF] Hirt | Costs and benefi ts of allegiance: Changes in fans' self-ascribed competencies after team victory versus defeat[END_REF][START_REF] Wann | Relationships between spectator identifi cation and spectators' perceptions of infl uence, spectators' emotions, and competition outcome[END_REF]. Consequently, we expected highly identified persons to report more intense postgame emotional responses than those low in identifi cation. Specifi cally, highly identifi ed supporters of the winning team should report particularly high levels of happiness, whereas highly allegiant followers of the losing team should report more intense levels of disappointment. We further investigated the relationships among these variables through the use of mediated moderated regression to determine if differences in post-game shifts as a function of identifi cation and team supported were mediated by emotional reactions to the outcome.

Method

Participants

The original sample of participants comprised 173 students at one of two mid-southern universities (Murray State University, MSU, and Western Kentucky University, WKU). Participants earned extra course credit in their psychology course in exchange for participation. Thirteen persons failed to complete all forms and 24 additional participants were not aware of the outcome of the target basketball contest. Thus, these 37 individuals were dropped from the data set resulting in a fi nal sample of 136 participants (54 male, 82 female; MSU n = 84, WKU n = 52). They had a mean age of 21.13 years (SD = 2.64, range = 18-34).

Materials and procedure

Pre-test session The pre-testing sessions occurred at both universities between one and fi ve days prior to the target basketball contest involving the schools. Upon entering the testing room and providing their consent, participants (tested in groups) completed a questionnaire packet containing three sections. The fi rst section contained demographic items assessing age and gender, and requested the last four digits of the participant's social security number (for pre-and post-test matching purposes). The second section contained the Sport Spectator Identifi cation Scale (SSIS; Wann & Branscombe, 1993). The SSIS contains seven Likert-type items with response options ranging from 1 (low identifi cation) to 8 (high identifi cation). Participants targeted their university's (i.e. MSU or WKU) men's basketball team when completing the SSIS. The items comprising the SSIS were (response options are in italics):

1. How important to you is it that (target team) wins? (not important/very important). 2. How strongly do YOU see YOURSELF as a fan of (target team)? (not a fan/very much a fan). 3. How strongly do your FRIENDS see YOU as a fan of (target team)? (not a fan/very much a fan). 4. During the season, how closely do you follow (target team) via ANY of the following: (i) in person or on television; (ii) on the radio, (iii) television news or a newspaper; or (iv) the Internet? (never/almost everyday). 5. How important is being a fan of (target team) to YOU? (not important/very important). 6. How much do you dislike the greatest rivals of (target team)? (do not dislike/dislike very much). 7. How often do YOU display (target team's)

name or insignia at your place of work, where you live, or on your clothing? (never/ always).

The seven items comprising the SSIS were combined to form a single index of team identifi cation (Cronbach's alpha = .94).

The fi nal section of the pre-test packet contained two items assessing perceptions of the teams' chances of victory. For replication purposes, the phrasing of the items was identical to that used by [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF] in their work with soccer teams, with the exception of the teams' names. Participants were asked to 'rate the chances of Murray State University winning the game' and to 'rate the chances of Western Kentucky University winning the game.' Response options ranged from 1 (almost zero chance) to 9 (very high chance). Upon completion of the packet, participants were given information on the time and place for the post-test sessions. They were then excused from the session.

Post-test session

During the post-test session, which occurred between two and fi ve days following the game, participants (tested in groups) completed a questionnaire containing fi ve items. The fi rst item requested the participant's social security number (last four digits) for matching purposes. The second item asked participants to indicate who had won the game. Participants were to circle either Murray State University or Western Kentucky University. The third and fourth items were similar to the perception of victory items contained in the pre-test, with the difference being a focus on retrospection rather than prediction. Specifi cally, these items read, 'Now that the game has been played, in retrospect, what in fact were the chances of Murray State University winning the game?' and 'Now that the game has been played, in retrospect, what in fact were the chances of Western Kentucky University winning the game?' Once again, this wording was based on that used by [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF] and response options ranged from 1 (almost zero chance) to 9 (very high chance). The fi fth and fi nal item assessed emotional reactions to the game. Respondents indicated 'how you felt about the outcome of the game' using a scale of 1 (very disappointed) to 9 (very happy) (the wording and anchors were identical to those of Tykocinski et al.). Upon completion of the post-test packet, participants were handed a debriefi ng statement explaining the hypotheses of the study and containing information on gaining access to a copy of the results.

Target game

The game was an early season, non-conference contest between two NCAA Division I men's basketball teams who are traditional rivals (the schools are located only 120 miles apart). The home team had a record of two wins and one loss entering the contest, while the visiting team had a mark of two wins and two losses. The game was relatively close throughout, with the home team (MSU) holding a 44-34 advantage at half time. MSU eventually won the contest by a score of MSU 83 and WKU 72. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that visiting fans (M = 26.13, SD = 11.28) and home fans (M = 26.56, SD = 13.90) did not differ in their average level of identifi cation, F(1, 134) = 0.04, p = .85.

Results

Replication of Tykocinski et al. (2002)

The fi rst series of analyses involved attempts to replicate those of [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF]. Hence, these analyses were conducted across identifi cation groups. The fi rst analysis examined emotional reactions to the game. This ANOVA revealed that, as expected, fans of the losing team were less pleased (i.e. more disappointed) with the outcome (M = 3.63, SD = 1.70) than fans of the winning team (M = 7.35, SD = 1.65) (F(1, 134) = 158.85, p < .001). The next set of analyses examined participants' ratings of the teams' chances for victory before and after the game. The initial analysis involved a 2 (Team Supported: winner or loser) × 2 (Team Evaluated: winner and loser) × 2 (Time: before the contest and after the contest) mixed ANOVA. The fi rst variable was between-subjects while the last two were repeated measures within-subjects. As predicted, this analysis revealed a signifi cant Team Supported by Team Evaluated by Time three-way interaction, F(1, 134) = 7.39, p < .01. Shown in Table 1, this interaction replicates the fi ndings reported by [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF]. Specifi cally, although fans of both teams retrospectively decreased their evaluations of the chances for the losing team and increased their ratings of the chances for the winning team, this pattern of effects was much more pronounced among persons supporting the losing team (results of tests of specifi c comparisons and information on main effects and two-way interactions are available upon request).

The fi nal set of replication analyses involved examining correlations between the degree of post-game shift and emotional reactions to the contest. It was hypothesized that there would be a signifi cant correlation between magnitude of the pre-to post-game bias and distress level. To test this possibility, pre-to post-game shifts were calculated (i.e. difference scores) and separate correlations were calculated with the item assessing emotional reactions to the game for fans of the winning and the losing team. Consistent with the fi ndings reported by [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF], a signifi cant negative correlation was found among fans of the losing team, (r = -.37, p < .01), but no relationship was found for supporters of the winning team, r = -.05, p < .60. Thus, high pre-game to post-game shifts were associated with greater levels of disappointment only for fans of the losing team. 2

Examination of the impact of team identifi cation

Although the earlier analyses provided strong replication of Tykocinski et al.'s (2002) research, the primary purpose of the current investigation was to extend the earlier work by testing the hypothesis that the pattern of effects detailed earlier would be most prominent among persons with a high degree of team identifi cation for one of the competitors. The initial test of this hypothesis involved a moderated regression analysis on the dependent variable of post-game shift (calculated as the difference between the post-game evaluation of a team's chances of winning and the pre-game evaluation of that team's chances). Means, standard deviations, and intercorrelations among the variables are presented in Table 2. Separate hierarchical regression analyses were conducted for postgame evaluation shifts for the winning team and the losing team. Following the recommendations of [START_REF] Aiken | Multiple regression: Testing and interpreting interactions[END_REF], the team identifi cation variable was centered prior to entering it into the analysis and the interaction term was based on that centered score. In both analyses, shift score was fi rst regressed on team supported and team identifi cation. In the second step, the interaction variable was introduced. The results of these analyses are presented in Table 3. Regressing the dependent variables on team support and team identifi cation resulted in an R 2 of .079 for winning team post-game shift (p < .01), and an R 2 of .037 for losing team post-game shift (p = .083). The introduction of the interaction term accounted for a signifi cant additional proportion of variance in winning team shift (∆R 2 = .037, p < .05) but not in losing team shift (∆R 2 = 0.0, p = .970). The fi nal equation for winning team shift revealed two signifi cant predictors: team supported (β = .229, p < .01) and the interaction between team supported and team identifi cation (β = .267, p < .05). None of the variables were signifi cant predictors in the fi nal equation for losing team shift (smallest p = .095).

The specifi c form of the interaction between team supported and team identifi cation was evaluated following the procedures suggested by [START_REF] Aiken | Multiple regression: Testing and interpreting interactions[END_REF]. For each shift measure, the interaction was graphed by inserting high (1 SD above the mean) and low (1 SD below the mean) values for identifi cation score into the regression equations for each team support group. Both graphs are shown in Figure 1. The signifi cant interaction was further explored with simple slope analyses. These analyses revealed that for fans of the losing team, the regression of post-game shift in their evaluations of the winning team on team identifi cation was signifi cantly different from zero (β = .357, t = 3.027, p < .01). For fans of the winning (MSU) team, however, team identifi cation was not a reliable predictor of post-game shift in evaluations of the winning team (β = -.028, t < 1.0). The regression of postgame shift in evaluation of the losing team on team identifi cation indicated no signifi cant difference from zero in either the slope for fans of the losing team (β = -.121, t < 1.0) or the slope for fans of the winning team (β = -.128, t = -1.076, ns). Thus, increases in team identifi cation are associated with increases in postgame evaluations of the winning team's initial chances by fans of the loser but not by fans of the winner, whereas increases in team identifi cation are not signifi cantly related to changes in postgame evaluations of the losing team's initial chances by fans of either team. The last set of analyses examined the relationships between team identifi cation, post-game shifts, and emotional reactions to the outcome. The initial analyses tested the prediction that level of team identifi cation would be correlated with the intensity of emotional reactions to the contest. Consistent with expectations, a positive correlation emerged for fans of the winning team, r(82) = .498, p < .01 (i.e. highly identifi ed fans felt happier about the outcome), while a negative correlation emerged for fans of the losing team, r(50) = -.533, p < .01 (i.e. highly identifi ed fans felt more disappointed in the outcome). We then included degree of post-game shift in the analyses via use of mediated moderated regression to determine if differences in post-game shifts as a function of identifi cation and team supported were mediated by emotional reaction to the outcome. Prior to conducting the analysis, the emotional reaction variable was centered as was the team identifi cation variable. Interaction terms involving emotional reaction and team identifi cation were based on the centered variables. Using the criteria for determining the presence of mediated moderation outlined by [START_REF] Muller | When moderation is mediated and mediation is moderated[END_REF], the analysis indicated that emotional reaction did not mediate the interaction between team supported and team identifi cation for post-game shifts in evaluations of either the winning or the losing team. Mediated moderation is indicated when the magnitude (absolute value) of the interaction effect is reduced by the inclusion of the mediator (as a main effect and in an interaction term) in the model. However, for shifts in evaluations of the winning team, the interaction effect when the emotional reaction was included was actually nominally larger (β = .489) than when the mediator was not included (β = .267). For shifts in evaluation of the losing team, the absolute value of the interaction effect when the mediator of emotional reaction was added to the model (β = -.005) was no different from the effect when the mediator was not in the model (β = .005). 3 Thus, it appears that degree of happiness (or unhappiness) about the outcome of the game did not mediate the effects of the interaction between team supported and team identifi cation on retrospective pessimism for evaluations of either the winning or the losing team.

Discussion

The current investigation was designed to extend the work of Tykocinski and colleagues [START_REF] Tykocinski | I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments[END_REF][START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF] on retroactive pessimism, i.e. the tendency to perceive a negative outcome as having been inevitable. Using social identity theory as a framework [START_REF] Hogg | Social identifi cations: A social psychology of intergroup relations and group processes[END_REF][START_REF] Tajfel | The social identity theory of intergroup behavior[END_REF], we hypothesized that such a tendency would be most prominent among highly identifi ed group members [START_REF] Branscombe | The context and content of social identity threat[END_REF][START_REF] Wann | Controllability and stability in the self-serving attributions of sport spectators[END_REF]. For these individuals, group threat has implications for their social identity and, therefore, they stand to benefi t the most from coping strategies such as retroactive pessimism. The fi rst series of analyses, conducted across level of identifi cation, provided clear replication of Tykocinski's fi ndings. Specifi cally, although fans of both teams exhibited retroactive pessimism by decreasing their evaluations of the chances for the losing team and increasing their ratings of the chances for the winning team, the effects were much more evident among those who were fans of the losing team. Because proactive pessimism and similar hindsight bias strategies are designed to assist in one's attempt to cope with a threat to a valued social identity [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF], one would expect such a pattern because fans of the losing team would experience a greater threat than supporters of the winning team.

With respect to emotional responses to the outcome, our results once again replicated the work of Tykocinski. Specifi cally, we found that pre-to post-game shifts were associated with greater levels of disappointment for fans of the losing team, whereas a signifi cant relationship was not found for supporters of the winning team. This is precisely the pattern of effects reported by [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF] in their research on retroactive pessimism among soccer fans. Further, this pattern mirrors the results presented by [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF] in their work on German reactions to Leipzig, a city in Germany, not being selected as host of the Olympic Games and substantiates their conclusion that 'necessity impressions serve as a coping mechanism for disappointment' (p. 157). Thus, as with previous work on hindsight biases, assessing levels of disappointment provided additional understanding of group members' attempts to cope with threat. Consequently, future researchers should include this simple but informative item, thereby furthering our understanding of the relationships among disappointment (i.e. emotional impact of a threat), identifi cation, and coping mechanisms. Researchers may also want to include assessments of collective (i.e. social) self-esteem [START_REF] Luhtanen | Self-esteem and intergroup comparison: Toward a theory of collective self-esteem[END_REF] given the possibility that increased use of retroactive pessimism may help in the maintenance of collective well-being.

However, it warrants mention that we assessed emotional responses in a rather simplistic fashion, namely, via a single Likert-scale item. Our decision to operationalize emotional responses in this fashion was a function of our desire to approximate Tykocinski's work as fully as possible. Selecting a different method of assessing emotional responses would have rendered direct comparisons more diffi cult. Given that (i) our work successfully replicated Tykoconski's, (ii) other researchers investigating hindsight biases have successful employed similarly simplistic assessments of emotional reactions [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF], and (iii) single item assessments can be psychometrically sound [START_REF] Kwon | The feasibility of single-item measures in sport loyalty research[END_REF][START_REF] Rossiter | The C-OAR-SE procedure for scale development in marketing[END_REF], we are confi dent in our assessment of the respondents happiness/disappointment in the competition outcome. However, given the inherent dangers of using single-item measures [START_REF] Churchill | A paradigm for developing better measures of marketing constructs[END_REF][START_REF] Nunnally | Psychometric theory[END_REF], future researchers should attempt to replicate the fi ndings reported here with different, perhaps more sophisticated, operational defi nitions.

Although we were interested in replicating [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF], the primary purpose of this investigation was to extend their research by including an examination of the supporters' level of team identifi cation into the analyses. The results detailed earlier reveal that identifi cation is a critical individual difference variable in understanding the use of retroactive pessimism. First, level of identifi cation was signifi cantly related to the intensity of emotional responses to the outcome. For fans of the winning team, higher levels of identifi cation corresponded to greater levels of positive emotional reactions to the outcome, whereas fans of the losing team reported the opposite pattern of effect.

Second and most importantly, the tendency to retrospectively lower one's evaluations of a team's chances for success subsequent to group failure was more prominent among highly identifi ed group members than those lower in identifi cation (a pattern not mediated by disappointment). Increases in the use of retroactive pessimism were associated with increased levels of identifi cation with the losing team and involved evaluations of the winning team's chances. Again, this fi nding fi ts well within the notion that retroactive pessimism allows individuals to better cope with a threat to their social identity. In our earlier discussion, we noted that fans of the losing team should be more likely to utilize retroactive pessimism because these fans experienced a threat (relative to fans of the winning team). This logic can be extended to include the identifi cation level of these fans. That is, fans of the losing team who do not identify strongly with the team should not feel threatened when the team performs poorly because the role of team follower is not a central component of their social identity (i.e. these persons are not threatened by poor team performance). Conversely, persons with high levels of identifi cation are threatened by the team's poor performance and thus, stand to gain the most from the use of retroactive pessimism.

Therefore, consistent with prior research [START_REF] Branscombe | The context and content of social identity threat[END_REF][START_REF] Doosje | Guilty by association: When one's group has a negative history[END_REF][START_REF] Ouwerkerk | Group commitment and individual effort in experimental and organizational contexts[END_REF], our data revealed that it was the combination of high levels of group identifi cation and identity threat that led to the use of the coping strategy. This fi nding also compares nicely with the previously described work by [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF] on German reactions to Leipzig's failure to be awarded the Olympic Games. These authors found that increases in necessity (i.e. retroactive pessimism) were positively correlated with levels of commitment (e.g. support for the application) with the issue at hand. Although commitment and identifi cation are not identical constructs, they share many commonalities and these terms are often used interchangeably [START_REF] Wann | The causes and consequences of sport team identifi cation[END_REF]. It is also interesting to note that [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF] found negative relationships between assessments of commitment and foreseeability. This suggests that, although identifi cation is positively related to necessity judgments such as retroactive pessimism, identifi cation may be negatively correlated with foreseeabilty. Specifi cally, had we asked participants about their perceptions of the foreseeability of the outcome (e.g. 'To what extent do you/did you know how the game would turn out?'), we may have found post-game versus pre-game responses to these items to be negatively correlated with identifi cation. As [START_REF] Blank | Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics[END_REF] note, admitting retrospectively that a negative outcome was foreseeable may provoke cognitive dissonance. That is, highly identifi ed and loyal fans probably do not conclude post-game that 'I really knew we would lose' because such a statement lies in opposition to being a committed and loyal fan.

Additional analyses revealed that the retroactive pessimism exhibited by the highly identifi ed fans of the losing team targeted their evaluations of the winning team's chances for success. That is, increased levels of identifi cation for fans of the losing team corresponded to increased post-game evaluations of the winning team, but there were no signifi cant changes in their evaluations of their own team. In essence, these fans chose to adjust their perceptions of the rival team rather than their own. In doing so, they were likely able to protect their perceptions of the quality of their team while retroactively attributing the outcome to the opposing team's ability. It appears to have been easier for these fans to conclude that the rival team was better than previously believed while maintaining consistent impressions of their ingroup team (e.g. it was easier to view the rival as better than to believe that their team was worse). Such an effect was detected previously by Wann and Dolan (1994) who found that sport fans (and in particular highly identifi ed fans) increased their perceptions of an opponent's ability after watching their team lose to that opponent.

Finally, in terms of future research, it would be interesting to replicate the current work in an environment in which a group's successes were unexpected. In the work by [START_REF] Tykocinski | Retroactive pessimism: A different kind of hindsight bias[END_REF], the outcome was expected (i.e. there was a clear favorite) while in the current investigation, because the teams were believed to be fairly evenly matched, a victory by either team was not out of the question. However, an unexpected outcome may lead to a different pattern of effects. That is, would fans of a losing team that was highly favored to win a competition conclude, retrospectively, that they never really had a chance? This seems unlikely. As noted by [START_REF] Branscombe | The context and content of social identity threat[END_REF], group members sometimes resort to more subtle coping strategies when intergroup comparisons are less ambiguous (e.g. such as when one's team is defeated by a clearly inferior opponent). In such a case, retroactive pessimism may not be a viable option for coping. Thus, one could predict that fans of a superior team would not resort to retroactive pessimism to ease the pain of a recent defeat at the hands of a lesser opponent. Rather, they would rely on a different form of coping such as increasing self-stereotyping [START_REF] Spears | Self-stereotyping in the face of threats to group status and distinctiveness: The role of group identifi cation[END_REF] or increasing cohesion among members of the group [START_REF] Doosje | Perceived intragroup variability as a function of group status and identifi cation[END_REF][START_REF] Sutton | Creating and fostering fan identifi cation in professional sports[END_REF]. Consequently, retroactive pessimism may be limited to situations in which the outcome was expected.

Notes

1. In the current work, we utilize [START_REF] Snyder | Coping: Where have you been?[END_REF] operationalization of coping, i.e. 'those responses that are effective in reducing an undesirable load (i.e. the psychological burden)' and whose effectiveness 'rests on its ability to reduce immediate distress, as well as to contribute to more long-term outcomes such as psychological well-being' (p. 5). 2. In addition to the correlation analyses, a simple mediated regression analysis was conducted following the procedure recommended by [START_REF] Baron | The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations[END_REF] to determine if pre-to post-game shifts were mediated by emotional reaction. No signifi cant mediation effect was found for evaluations of the winning team (indirect effect = .01) or the losing team (indirect effect = 0.0). 3. Further evidence against mediated moderation is provided by the failure of the analysis to exhibit any of the other required components of mediation identifi ed by [START_REF] Muller | When moderation is mediated and mediation is moderated[END_REF] except for the presence of an overall signifi cant moderation effect (as presented in Table 2).

The relationship of team supported to emotional reaction did not depend upon team identifi cation: emotional reaction differed as a function of team supported, β = -.480, p < .01, but the average partial effect of the mediator on post-game shift was statistically nonsignifi cant for both losing team and winning team evaluations, β = -.005 and β = .180, respectively. Furthermore, the partial effect of emotional reaction (the mediator) on post-game evaluation shifts did not depend upon level of team identifi cation for either winning or losing team evaluations (the average relationship of team supported to the mediator was signifi cant, β = -.735, p < .01, but the effect of the mediator on post-game shifts did not change signifi cantly as a function of an increase in team identifi cation for either losing or winning team evaluations, β = -.007 and β = .133, respectively).

Figure 1 .

 1 Figure 1. Relationship between team identifi cation and amount of shift (postgame vs. pregame) in evaluations of the winning and losing team's initial chances of winning as a function of team supported.

Table 1 .

 1 Means and standard deviations by team supported (winner or loser), team evaluated (winner and loser), and time (before the contest and after the contest)

		Evaluation of winner	Evaluation of loser
		Time 1	Time 2	Time 1	Time 2
	Supporter of winner	5.57	5.96	5.17	4.57
		(1.56)	(1.77)	(1.89)	(1.98)
	Supporter of loser	4.31	5.63	6.21	5.02
		(1.29)	(1.83)	(1.42)	(1.80)
	Note: Standard deviations appear in parentheses below each mean.

Table 2 .

 2 Means, standard deviations, and correlations among shifts in teams' chances, team identifi cation, emotional response, and team supported

	Variable	1	2	3	4	5
	Shift in winner's chances (1)	-
	Shift in loser's chances (2)	-.361**	-
	Team identifi cation (3)	.162	-.127	-
	Emotional response a (4)	-.171*	.101	.018	-
	Team supported b (5)	.232**	-.146	.017	-.736**	-
	M	.75	-.82	26.29	5.93	-
	SD	1.96	1.99	12.30	2.46	-
	Note: N = 136.
	a Rated on a scale from 1 (very disappointed) to 9 (very happy). b Coded as: winning team = 0, losing team = 1.
	*p < .05; **p < .01.

Table 3 .

 3 Moderated multiple regression predicting postgame shift in evaluations of winning and losing team's chances

		Shift in winner's chances			Shift in loser's chances
	Predictor variable	B	SE B	β	∆ R 2	B	SE B	β	∆ R 2
	Step 1				.079**				.037
	Team supported (TS) a	.923	.335	.230**		-.588	.349	-.144
	Team identifi cation (TI)	.025	.013	.158		-.120	.014	-.125
	Step 2				.037*				.00
	TS × TI	.061	.026	.267*		.001	.028	.005
	Overall R	.340				.192
	Overall R 2	.116				.037
	Adjusted R 2	.096				.015
	Overall F(3, 132)	5.759**				1.680
	Note: N = 136 for both analyses.

a Coded: Winning team = 0, losing team = 1. *p < .05; **p < .01.

  Biographical notes daniel l. wann is professor of psychology at Murray State University and a member of the executive board of directors for the National Alliance for Youth Sports. His research interests center around sport fans and group identifi cation. frederick g. grieve is a professor of psychology and the coordinator of the clinical psychology master's program at Western Kentucky University. His research examines the behavior of sport fans and male body image. paula j. waddill is professor of psychology at Murray State University with specializations in cognitive psychology and statistics/research design. Her current research interests include the roles that mental representations and inferences play in memory and decision making. jennifer martin received her masters degree in clinical psychology from Murray State University.

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank three anonymous reviewers for their valuable contributions to this research. Portions of this research were presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association for the Advancement of Applied Sport Psychology, Philadelphia, October, 2003.