Meitong Dong
email: dongmt@connect.hku.hk

Liwen Wang
email: wanglw@szu.edu.cn

Defeng Yang
email: yangdefeng@163.com

Kevin Zheng Zhou
email: kevinz@hku.hk

Performance Feedback and Export Intensity of Chinese Private Firms: Moderating Roles of Institution-related Factors

Keywords: performance feedback, export intensity, institutional development, political connections, behavioral theory of the firm, institutional view

Building on the behavioral theory of the firm and institutional view, we examine how performance feedback (i.e., a focal firm's performance relative to its industry peers) affects export intensity and how institution-related factors moderate this relationship. Using a sample of Chinese private manufacturing firms, we find that positive performance feedback lowers export intensity while the relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is insignificant. Moreover, outperforming firms are likely to decrease their export intensity even more when they are located in regions of better institutional development or have political connections. Underperforming firms with political connections tend to increase their export intensity. These findings enrich our understanding of the export behavior of emerging market firms.

Introduction

As "the world's factory," China's manufacturing sector contributed approximately one-third of global value added and 12% of the world's trade volume in 2019. 1 China's rapid economic growth and its significant role in world trade has been accompanied by the rise of private firms (i.e., enterprises whose largest shareholders are individuals or private organizations) [START_REF] Li | Principal-principal conflicts and corporate philanthropy: Evidence from Chinese private firms[END_REF][START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF]. Despite their institutional disadvantages compared with state-owned enterprises (SOEs), private firms have not only competed fiercely for domestic market share but have also striven to build strong international footholds [START_REF] Deng | Institutional quality and internationalization of emerging market firms: Focusing on Chinese SMEs[END_REF]. On average, private firms' exporting has risen steadily, surpassing that of SOEs in recent years. 2 Compared with domestic businesses, exporting in general is riskier. Because exporting involves selling products abroad through foreign distribution networks, exporters face uncertainties resulting from longer trading times [START_REF] Nguyen | Export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises: The role of trade finance availability[END_REF]), volatile exchange rates [START_REF] Dennis | Trade facilitation and export diversification[END_REF][START_REF] Martínez-Zarzoso | Monetary uncertainty and trade in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A firm-level analysis[END_REF], and external shocks (e.g., . Further, due to differences in languages, institutions, and cultures between host and home countries, exporting incurs additional costs in terms of documentation, customs charges, and communication when transacting with foreign partners [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Nguyen | Export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises: The role of trade finance availability[END_REF].

To understand the export behavior of Chinese firms, prior research has examined its drivers from different perspectives, such as firm competencies from the resource-based view (RBV) [START_REF] Krammer | The export performance of emerging economy firms: The influence of firm capabilities and institutional environments[END_REF][START_REF] Yi | The effects of innovative capabilities on exporting: Do institutional forces matter?[END_REF], market competition from the industry-based view [START_REF] Zhao | The impact of industry concentration and firm location on export propensity and intensity: An empirical analysis of Chinese manufacturing firms[END_REF], and legal development from the institution-based view [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF] 1 Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China; World Trade Organization.

2 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. [START_REF] Krammer | The export performance of emerging economy firms: The influence of firm capabilities and institutional environments[END_REF]. However, most studies have overlooked an important factor in risky decision-making: performance feedback. According to the behavioral theory of the firm (BTOF)-an influential perspective on risky firm decision-making-managers' motivations to engage in risk-taking behaviors are dependent on the performance of firms relative to their aspiration levels [START_REF] Cyert | A behavioral theory of the firm[END_REF]. When performance falls below aspirational levels, managers start to seek solutions to the problem and become increasingly risk prone [START_REF] Gavetti | The behavioral theory of the firm: Assessment and prospects[END_REF]. In the BTOF literature, the widely used type of aspiration is reflected by comparisons with industry peers (e.g., [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Lin | How do managers decide on internationalization processes? The role of organizational slack and performance feedback[END_REF]. Accordingly, performance feedback refers to the discrepancy between a focal firm's performance and industry average performance [START_REF] Gavetti | The behavioral theory of the firm: Assessment and prospects[END_REF]. Prior studies have demonstrated that negative performance feedback fosters risktaking behaviors, such as organizational change [START_REF] Greve | Performance, aspirations and risky organizational change[END_REF], acquisition [START_REF] Kuusela | Driven by aspirations, but in what direction? Performance shortfalls, slack resources, and resource-consuming vs. resource-freeing organizational change[END_REF][START_REF] Iyer | Performance feedback, slack, and the timing of acquisitions[END_REF], R&D [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF], and bribery [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Given the riskiness of overseas businesses, performance feedback may serve as a critical determinant that drives managers' decisions on export. In this study, we examine how performance feedback affects export intensity, defined as overseas sales of total sales, which reflects a firm's relative strategic focus on export [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Lee | Does bribery in the home country promote or dampen firm exports?[END_REF]. Furthermore, recent BTOF-based literature emphasizes that when using performance feedback to explain firms' risk-taking behavior, it is necessary to consider the contingencies of surrounding contexts [START_REF] Rhee | Performance feedback in hierarchical business groups: The cross-level effects of cognitive accessibility on R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Contextual factors influence managers' assessments of performance feedback and the selection of solutions [START_REF] Audia | Less likely to fail: Low performance, firm size, and factory expansion in the shipbuilding industry[END_REF][START_REF] Vissa | Business group affiliation and firm search behavior in India: Responsiveness and focus of attention[END_REF]. In emerging markets such as China, the most salient context is institutional characteristics [START_REF] Peng | Institutional transitions and strategic choices[END_REF][START_REF] Peng | An institution-based view of international business strategy: A focus on emerging economies[END_REF]. Hence, we focus on institutional development, defined as the extent to which market-based fundamentals and legal systems support economic activities at the regional level [START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF], and political connections, defined as firm executives' boundary-spanning activities and interactions with government officials [START_REF] Peng | Managerial ties and firm performance in a transition economy: The nature of a micro-macro link[END_REF]. Because both factors could affect managers' cognition of performance and risk, they likely moderate the relationship between performance feedback and risk-taking behaviors.

Nevertheless, how these institution-related factors affect the impact of performance feedback on export has received scant attention.

To address these gaps, we build on the BTOF and institutional view to assess two research questions: (1) How does performance feedback influence Chinese private firms' export intensity?

(2) How do institution-related factors (i.e., institutional development and political connections) moderate the above relationship?

We hypothesize that negative performance feedback increases export intensity, whereas positive performance feedback lowers export intensity. We further propose that institutional development and political connections positively moderate the relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity, but negatively moderate the impact of positive performance feedback on export intensity.

Our empirical sample consists of 1,156 Chinese listed private manufacturing firms between 2008 and 2017. The results show that positive performance feedback is negatively associated with export intensity, and such negative relationships are more salient at high levels of institutional development and for firms with political connections. However, the relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is not significant, and the relationship turns positive only when firms have political connections.

Our study makes two contributions. First, it contributes to the export literature by introducing performance feedback as an additional driver of the export behavior of emerging market firms. This behavioral perspective adds to prior research that relies mainly on the RBV, industry-based view, and institutional view to identify the antecedents of exporting [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Krammer | The export performance of emerging economy firms: The influence of firm capabilities and institutional environments[END_REF]. Insights from the BTOF partly reflect the different impacts of managers' expectations, which contributes to our understanding of why firms' export behaviors are heterogeneous, given similar resources and environmental conditions [START_REF] Surdu | Back to basics: Behavioral theory and internationalization[END_REF].

Second, we enrich the BTOF literature by identifying export as a new risk-taking behavior and revealing the contingent roles of institutional contexts. Previous BTOF-based studies have mainly discussed risky behaviors, such as organizational change, R&D, acquisition, and bribery, as well as the contingent roles of CEO or firm characteristics (e.g., [START_REF] Audia | Less likely to fail: Low performance, firm size, and factory expansion in the shipbuilding industry[END_REF][START_REF] Blagoeva | Problem-solving or selfenhancement? A power perspective on how CEOs affect R&D search in the face of inconsistent feedback[END_REF][START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Greve | Performance, aspirations and risky organizational change[END_REF]. In extending prior work, we respond to the call to examine the boundary conditions of institutional elements in the relationship between performance feedback and private firms' export intensity.

Theory and literature review

Export of emerging market firms

Compared with other foreign market entry modes, such as international joint venture, merger and acquisition, and greenfield investment, exporting is the quickest way for firms to expand overseas [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF]. However, compared with domestic businesses, international expansion often entails higher transaction costs and uncertainties, which hold back a firm's decision to export [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Nguyen | Export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises: The role of trade finance availability[END_REF].

Recent review papers point out that previous studies mainly use the RBV and institutional theory to explain the determinants of export behaviors [START_REF] Chen | The determinants of export performance: a review of the literature 2006-2014[END_REF][START_REF] İpek | Export market orientation: An integrative review and directions for future research[END_REF][START_REF] Kahiya | Five decades of research on export barriers: Review and future directions[END_REF]. Based on the RBV, researchers find that firms are likely to increase export when they develop capabilities that can address the risks of exporting (e.g., [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Kim | What drives the export performance of small and mediumsized subcontracting firms? A study of Korean manufacturers[END_REF][START_REF] Krammer | The export performance of emerging economy firms: The influence of firm capabilities and institutional environments[END_REF]. From an institutional perspective, some suggest that the development of home country institutions increases firm efficiencies and thereby facilitates their exporting [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF]. Others argue that improved local institutions, such as economic freedom and preferential treatment, may increase the comparative riskiness of overseas expansion, and thereby reduce firms' willingness to export [START_REF] Estrin | Export propensity and intensity of subsidiaries in emerging economies[END_REF][START_REF] Lee | Does bribery in the home country promote or dampen firm exports?[END_REF]Zhou and Zou, 2002). In addition, several studies have identified the antecedents of firm export behaviors using the upper echelon theory [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF] and agency perspective [START_REF] Lu | The effects of corporate governance and institutional environments on export behaviour in emerging economies[END_REF]. Despite these rich insights, prior research has largely neglected the drivers of firm export from a behavioral perspective [START_REF] Cyert | A behavioral theory of the firm[END_REF][START_REF] Gavetti | The behavioral theory of the firm: Assessment and prospects[END_REF][START_REF] Niittymies | Cognitive foundations of firm internationalization: A systematic review and agenda for future research[END_REF].

Behavioral theory of the firm and export

The BTOF posits that a manager's motivation to assume risk is triggered by performance feedback-i.e., the difference between actual performance and the selected aspiration level [START_REF] Cyert | A behavioral theory of the firm[END_REF]. Firms can evaluate performance relative to their own past performance (i.e., historical aspirations) or peer performance (i.e., social aspirations) [START_REF] Greve | Organizational learning from performance feedback: A behavioral perspective on innovation and change[END_REF]. In this study, we focus on social aspiration, which leaves less room for managers' self-enhancing justifications for poor performance relative to historical aspirations [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Tarakci | Performance feedback and middle managers' divergent strategic behavior: The roles of social comparisons and organizational identification[END_REF]. Moreover, discontinuous and inevitable environmental changes reduce the comparability between current and past performance, and thus render historical aspirations less effective [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Greve | Organizational learning from performance feedback: A behavioral perspective on innovation and change[END_REF]. Accordingly, when performance rises above the industry average, managers receive positive performance feedback; otherwise, they face negative performance feedback.

Generally, negative performance feedback shifts managers' attention to problems and makes them more risk prone [START_REF] Gavetti | The behavioral theory of the firm: Assessment and prospects[END_REF]. However, previous research fails to reach a consensus regarding the effects of positive performance feedback on risky behaviors. Some studies argue that satisfactory performance leads to managers' being content with current strategies, which results in organizational inertia and risk aversion [START_REF] Greve | Performance, aspirations and risky organizational change[END_REF]. Others contend that positive performance feedback attracts resources that allow firms to engage in risk-taking and aspirational practices [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF].

Several studies have used the BTOF to explain emerging market firms' internationalization. Specifically, [START_REF] Lin | How do managers decide on internationalization processes? The role of organizational slack and performance feedback[END_REF] finds that larger performance shortfalls lead to faster, wider, and more irregular internationalization of Taiwanese public firms. [START_REF] Xie | Performance feedback and outward foreign direct investment by emerging economy firms[END_REF] show that both positive and negative performance feedback increase Chinese listed firms' subsequent outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). However, these findings may not directly apply to exporting, because exporting has a market-seeking motive, while other forms of internationalization may also aim to gain strategic assets [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Lyon | Enhancing performance with product-market innovation: the influence of the top management team[END_REF]. Hence, given the riskiness of exporting compared with domestic business, we seek to link performance feedback to Chinese private manufacturing firms' export behavior.

Institutional contingencies

Research based on the BTOF highlights the need to consider surrounding environments as the boundary conditions that affect the impact of performance feedback on risk-taking behaviors [START_REF] Audia | Less likely to fail: Low performance, firm size, and factory expansion in the shipbuilding industry[END_REF][START_REF] Rhee | Performance feedback in hierarchical business groups: The cross-level effects of cognitive accessibility on R&D search behavior[END_REF]. As the most salient environmental factor in China, institutions largely shift a manager's cognition of performance and evaluation of risk toward certain behaviors [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Iriyama | Playing dirty or building capability? Corruption and HR training as competitive actions to threats from informal and foreign firm rivals[END_REF]. For example, [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF] find that the development of legal institutions affects managers' risk perception of R&D and bribery, and thus moderates the relationship between performance feedback and those risk-taking actions.

Given that institutions significantly affect how managers view firm performance and the expected risk in international business, we consider the contingent role of institutional factors in the effect of performance feedback on export.

In the export literature, increasing research has examined the moderating role of institutions by showing how institutional elements complement other theories in explaining firm export intensity (see Table 1). For instance, by adding institutional arguments to the RBV perspective, prior research has shown that institutional features influence firms' willingness and ability to commit resources to exporting, and thereby affect the relationship between resources and export intensity [START_REF] Manolopoulos | Resources, home institutional context and SMEs' exporting: direct relationships and contingency effects[END_REF][START_REF] Yi | The effects of innovative capabilities on exporting: Do institutional forces matter?[END_REF]. Some studies have incorporated institutional factors in resource dependence theory and agency theory to show that institutions indirectly affect export behaviors through their interplay with firm governance and ownership, respectively [START_REF] Lu | The effects of corporate governance and institutional environments on export behaviour in emerging economies[END_REF][START_REF] Wu | The dual effects of state ownership on export activities of emerging market firms: An inducement-constraint perspective[END_REF]. In their review of the literature, [START_REF] Chen | The determinants of export performance: a review of the literature 2006-2014[END_REF] and [START_REF] İpek | Export market orientation: An integrative review and directions for future research[END_REF] call for research on the moderating role of institutional factors in this research field.

Extending this stream of work, we argue that institution-related factors moderate the link between performance feedback and export intensity by influencing a manager's awareness of performance and risk perception toward exporting. On the one hand, institutional development reflects different levels of institutional transitions across regions, which affect the degree of pressure managers associate with performance decline [START_REF] Huang | Adopting knowledge from reverse innovations? transnational patents and signaling from an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF]. Also, the local institutional environment influences managers' risk perceptions of export versus domestic business [START_REF] Estrin | Export propensity and intensity of subsidiaries in emerging economies[END_REF]. By influencing managers' perceived pressures from performance feedback and risk perceptions of export, institutional development may alter the performance feedback-export relationship.

On the other hand, although firms cannot change the surrounding institutional environment, they can forge political connections with government officials to obtain institutional privileges [START_REF] Cheng | Will corporate political connection influence the environmental information disclosure level? Based on the panel data of A-shares from listed companies in shanghai stock market[END_REF][START_REF] Haveman | The Dynamics of Political Embeddedness in China[END_REF]. Such political connections create dependence and exposure to government scrutiny, and thus politically connected firms are subject to government demands regarding performance [START_REF] Haveman | The Dynamics of Political Embeddedness in China[END_REF][START_REF] Okhmatovskiy | Performance implications of ties to the government and SOEs: A political embeddedness perspective[END_REF]. Hence, political connections, functioning as an important moderator, may influence managers' attitudes regarding performance and thereby alter the impact of performance feedback on risky actions. Figure 1 depicts our conceptual model. *** Insert Table 1 and Figure 1 here ***

Hypotheses

Performance feedback and export intensity

According to the BTOF, when performance falls below the aspiration level, the firm undertakes problemistic search in order to restore aspriation [START_REF] Cyert | A behavioral theory of the firm[END_REF]. Large performance deficits lead to high pressure to achieve aspiration levels and encourage risk-taking [START_REF] Audia | Less likely to fail: Low performance, firm size, and factory expansion in the shipbuilding industry[END_REF]. Based on this logic, we propose that the firm's export intensity increases in the face of negative performance feedback.

First, when performance falls, managers feel great pressure to seek strategic actions that may restore aspiration levels in a relatively short term (Greve, 2003a). Of various options, such as investing in R&D and acquisition [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Iyer | Performance feedback, slack, and the timing of acquisitions[END_REF], shifting the strategic focus between foreign and local by expanding foreign sales (i.e., export intensity) is a particularly effective solution [START_REF] Lin | How do managers decide on internationalization processes? The role of organizational slack and performance feedback[END_REF][START_REF] Surdu | Back to basics: Behavioral theory and internationalization[END_REF]. Compared with R&D and acquisition, which require significant investment and are time consuming, exporting can directly increase sales and reduce marginal production costs [START_REF] Vissa | Business group affiliation and firm search behavior in India: Responsiveness and focus of attention[END_REF]. Firms can increase export intensity by expanding sales in existing foreign markets and/or accesing new ones.

Although exporting incurs additional costs and uncertainties compared with domestic business transactions, it enables market opportunities not available in the home country [START_REF] Agnihotri | Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: An upper echelon perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Lisboa | Export market exploitation and exploration and performance: Linear, moderated, complementary and non-linear effects[END_REF]. Given that exporting can assist in improving performance, underperforming firms may seek to increase export intensity.

More importantly, negative performance feedback increases managers' motivation to take risks, which allows for risky and aggressive strategic initiatives [START_REF] Cyert | A behavioral theory of the firm[END_REF]) such as increasing export intensity. Although overseas operations entail higher costs and uncertainties compared with domestic ones, performance below aspiration levels increases managers' risk tolerance [START_REF] Xie | Performance feedback and outward foreign direct investment by emerging economy firms[END_REF]. Managers tend to focus more on the benefits of exporting than the potential losses or failures. The further a firm's performance falls below its aspiration level, the stronger the motivation of managers to improve export intensity. Hence, we hypothesize that:

Hypothesis 1a: Negative performance feedback is positively associated with export intensity.

A firm faces no immediate problem when it receives positive performance feedback [START_REF] Levinthal | A model of adaptive organizational search[END_REF]. Managers tend to be content with current success and weigh the negative outcomes of strategic actions more heavily than the potential benefits [START_REF] March | Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking[END_REF]. As a result, they become resistant to changes and risk-averse. Accordingly, we argue that positive performance feedback reduces the export intensity of firms for two reasons.

First, when firms' performance exceeds aspiration levels, managers tend to attribute superior performance to their own capabilities and shift attention to aspirational strategies and actions that sustain competitive advantages (Park, 2007;[START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Firms with performance above that of industry peers have necessarily attained a relatively superior market position in their domestic markets [START_REF] Kacperczyk | Disentangling risk and change: Internal and external social comparison in the mutual fund industry[END_REF]. Given such market advantages, these firms view domestic markets as more attractive than overseas markets [START_REF] Lee | Does bribery in the home country promote or dampen firm exports?[END_REF]. Therefore, concentrating on the domestic market becomes a sound option compared with export.

Second, satisfactory performance reduces managers' incentives to take risks and motivates them to avoid risky strategic initiatives, such as expanding their export business [START_REF] March | Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking[END_REF]. Even though outperforming firms may have adequate resources for export, managers are typically extremely concerned regarding the adverse effects of the risks associated with international expansion [START_REF] Jiang | Organizational performance feedback effects and international expansion[END_REF]. In this situation, risk-averse managers tend to downplay the potential benefits of export, thus further reducing firm export share. In sum, we predict that export intensity decreases as performance exceeds the aspiration level.

Accordingly, we propose that: Hypothesis 1b: Positive performance feedback is negatively associated with export intensity.

Moderating roles of institutional development

During its transition to a market-oriented economy, China's institutional development has been uneven [START_REF] Peng | Institutional transitions and strategic choices[END_REF]. Coastal areas have generally undergone more comprehensive economic and legal reforms than inland regions [START_REF] Haveman | The Dynamics of Political Embeddedness in China[END_REF]. Regions thus differ significantly in terms of their development of market-based mechanisms [START_REF] Ma | How much does subnational region matter to foreign subsidiary performance? Evidence from Fortune Global 500 Corporations' investment in China[END_REF][START_REF] Yang | Subnational corruption and foreign firms' performance: Evidence from China[END_REF] and business opportunities and constraints. Thus, institutional development affects how local firms respond to performance feedback [START_REF] Jia | Public governance, corporate governance, and firm innovation: An examination of state-owned enterprises[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF].

Institutional development improves regional market transparency and efficiency [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Jiang | Organizational performance feedback effects and international expansion[END_REF][START_REF] Xie | Exporting and innovating among emerging market firms: The moderating role of institutional development[END_REF], which increase the pressure on local underperforming firms; it also gives rise to economic and physical infrastructures that facilitate export. Accordingly, we argue that regional institutional development strengthens the promotional effect of negative performance feedback on export intensity. First, in regions with developed institutions, local intermediaries-such as financial monitoring agencies and mediaare more effective, which in turn increases market transparency [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Graf-Vlachy | Media coverage of firms: Background, integration, and directions for future research[END_REF]. With effective intermediaries, stakeholders and the public are able to evaluate the firm in a timely manner [START_REF] Nijkrake | Competing frames and tone in corporate communication versus media coverage during a crisis[END_REF]. In this scenario, if firms with negative performance feedback fail to restore their performance in a short time, they are more likely to face external challenges. Hence, underperforming firms in developed regions have a stronger motivation to conduct a problemistic search and be more accepting of the risks associated with export intensity than underperforming firms in less developed areas.

Second, advanced institutional environments provide easily accessed resources and appropriate infrastructures that enable underperforming firms to increase their export intensity.

In more developed regions, the government exerts less control over local resource allocation [START_REF] Du | Integrating corporate social and corporate political strategies: Performance implications and institutional contingencies in China[END_REF][START_REF] Xiao | Bring institutions into FDI spillover research: Exploring the impact of ownership restructuring and institutional development in emerging economies[END_REF] and product and factor markets are better developed, which lower the costs of resource acquisition and subsequent economic transactions [START_REF] Dau | To formalize or not to formalize: Entrepreneurship and pro-market institutions[END_REF]. These regions also tend to have built better infrastructures, such as highways, airports, and ports [START_REF] Song | Port infrastructure investment and regional economic growth in China: Panel evidence in port regions and provinces[END_REF]. As such, in regions with high levels of institutional development, firms that perform below industry peers are more likely to shift their attention to expanding export share in order to restore performance. Taken together, we predict that:

Hypothesis 2a:

The positive relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is stronger for firms in areas with higher levels of institutional development.

Alternatively, we argue that local institutional development affects outperforming firms by heightening managers' risk perceptions of export, thus strengthens the negative relationship between positive performance feedback and export intensity. Specifically, a high-quality institutional environment at home facilitates firms' operations in local markets [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF].

Firms that outperform their peers may have more growth opportunities based on their current position in the domestic market [START_REF] Ito | R&D spending, domestic competition, and export performance of Japanese manufacturing firms[END_REF][START_REF] Lee | Does bribery in the home country promote or dampen firm exports?[END_REF]. In this scenario, firms likely experience increased competitive disadvantages when expanding overseas (due to institutional and cultural differences) than when continuing to operate in familiar domestic markets [START_REF] Estrin | Export propensity and intensity of subsidiaries in emerging economies[END_REF][START_REF] Rahman | Barriers to enter in foreign markets: Evidence from SMEs in emerging market[END_REF]. Accordingly, by comparing the relative risks associated with domestic and overseas markets, managers of outperforming firms in developed institutional environments are likely to perceive greater uncertainties surrounding exporting than those in less developed regions. Given that outperforming firms are risk-averse, managers in those firms tend to emphasize the negative outcomes of exporting and are thus unlikely to embark on such a course of action. Accordingly, we suggest that: Hypothesis 2b: The negative relationship between positive performance feedback and export intensity is stronger for firms in areas with higher levels of institutional development.

Moderating roles of political connections

Although firms cannot change the institutional environment, they can forge political connections to obtain resources and preferential treatment [START_REF] Sheng | The effects of business and political ties on firm performance: Evidence from China[END_REF]. Politically connected firms are likely to be closely monitored by the government and subject to its requirements and norms [START_REF] Haveman | The Dynamics of Political Embeddedness in China[END_REF][START_REF] Okhmatovskiy | Performance implications of ties to the government and SOEs: A political embeddedness perspective[END_REF]. Accordingly, we argue that given negative performance feedback, firms with political connections may increase export intensity more than those without.

Underperforming firms with political connections have greater motivation to increase export intensity due to extra pressure from the government to improve their poor performance. In China, since regional economic growth is the most important determinant of officials' political promotions, local governments are concerned about local firms' performance and want to avoid negative economic impacts [START_REF] Marquis | Institutional strategies in emerging markets[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Retire in peace: Officials' political incentives and corporate diversification in China[END_REF]. Due to frequent interactions with the government, the performance of politically connected firms is more likely to be noticed by local officials [START_REF] Tihanyi | State ownership and political connections[END_REF]. As a result, the government could exert pressure on these firms when their performance falls below that of industry peers. Meanwhile, given that such firms depend more on their government ties to obtain resources than peers, they must maintain a good relationship with officials and thus respond strongly to government demands to improve performance [START_REF] Dieleman | Using organization structure to buffer political ties in emerging markets: A case study[END_REF][START_REF] Haveman | The Dynamics of Political Embeddedness in China[END_REF].

Following Hypothesis 1a-that firms increase export intensity in response to performance shortfalls-we further propose that managers in politically connected firms are more likely to improve export intensity than those without such connections due to greater exposure to and pressure from the government. Thus, we predict that: Hypothesis 3a: The positive relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is stronger for firms with political connections than for those without.

In contrast, when a firm's performance rises above that of peers, politically connected firms are more likely to feel that they have met the government's expectations-and thus decrease their incentive to search-than their non-connected counterparts. Whereas firms with political connections are subject to close scrutiny by the government [START_REF] Okhmatovskiy | Performance implications of ties to the government and SOEs: A political embeddedness perspective[END_REF][START_REF] Wang | Retire in peace: Officials' political incentives and corporate diversification in China[END_REF], once firm performance rises above aspirations, managers may believe that they have met the government's requirements [START_REF] Wang | Running out of steam? A political incentive perspective of FDI inflows in China[END_REF]; this leads to a decline in their motivation to conduct problemistic search. Meanwhile, although local officials are concerned about the region's economic growth, they tend to be highly risk-averse and avoid making mistakes [START_REF] Wang | Retire in peace: Officials' political incentives and corporate diversification in China[END_REF]. Accordingly, politically connected firms likely become accustomed to such norms of risk-avoidance. Given positive performance feedback, firms with political connections worry about risky decisions' potential to damage their current performance. Hence, firms with political connections are more likely to be satisfied with superior performance and avoid risky initiatives, such as increasing export intensity. Thus, we predict that: Hypothesis 3b: The negative relationship between positive performance feedback and export intensity is stronger for firms with political connections than for those without.

Research methods

Data and sample

Our sample consists of Chinese private manufacturing companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2008 to 2017. Chinese listed firms are appropriate for our study for two reasons. First, companies that can be publicly listed in China must meet certain criteria, such as minimum size and operating profits, and thus are comparable with each other.

Second, listed firms must disclose annual reports in a timely manner, so that they can track the performance of their peers and make decisions based on performance feedback. Our data mainly come from the following sources: [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF][START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF].

To ensure the reliability of our results, we excluded observations from B-share, ST, and *ST firms as well as firm-year observations with missing values [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. To deal with outliers, we followed [START_REF] Jia | Public governance, corporate governance, and firm innovation: An examination of state-owned enterprises[END_REF] by winsorizing important continuous variables at the 1 st percentile in each tail (our results are robust at other cutoff points). Our final dataset consists of 6,539 firm-year observations for 1,156 listed private companies. Of these firms, 1,109 are fully owned by individuals or private organizations, while the rest have some state shares but are not ultimately controlled by the state or its agents. Our sample firms have an average of 1% of state share and a maximum of 11%. Our sample covers 31 provinces in China, and the number of private listed firms in each province ranges from 3 to 237. Provinces with the fewest firms are Xinjiang and Tibet, and Guangdong is the province with the most firms.

Measurements Export intensity

Following previous studies [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Lee | Does bribery in the home country promote or dampen firm exports?[END_REF], we measured export intensity by the ratio of overseas sales to total sales.

Performance feedback

For Chinese public firms, return on assets (ROA) is the performance metric they track most closely against their peers and is therefore widely used in BTOF-based studies (e.g., [START_REF] Lv | How does inconsistent negative performance feedback affect the R&D investments of firms? A study of publicly listed firms[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Accordingly, we measured performance using ROA. In line with established approaches [START_REF] Greve | Performance, aspirations and risky organizational change[END_REF](Greve, , 2003a;;[START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF], a firm's social aspiration level was derived from the performance of its industry peers, which was measured by the average ROA of listed firms with the same three-digit industry code as the focal firm in a year. We then used a spline function to distinguish between negative performance feedback and positive performance feedback. Negative performance feedback equals the absolute value of the difference between firm ROA and industry average ROA if firm ROA was less than industry average ROA, and equals zero if firm ROA was greater than or equal to industry average ROA. Positive performance feedback equals the absolute value of the difference between firm ROA and the average ROA in the industry if firm ROA was greater than or equal to the industry average ROA, and equals zero if firm ROA was less than industry average ROA. The industry distribution of our sample firms is reported in Table 2.

Institutional development

In China, institutional development differs significantly across subnational regions [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Prior studies in the Chinese context mainly use the NERI index to reflect the institutional development of different provinces (e.g., [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF][START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF]. The NERI index contains five sub-dimensions: the relationship between the government and market, the development level of the non-state sector, the product market, the factor market, and intermediaries and legal framework [START_REF] Fan | NERI index of marketization of China's provinces[END_REF][START_REF] Xiao | Bring institutions into FDI spillover research: Exploring the impact of ownership restructuring and institutional development in emerging economies[END_REF].

Accordingly, the NERI index provides an overall assessment of the province-level institutional environment in which the focal firm is located [START_REF] Shi | Sub-national institutional contingencies, network positions, and IJV partner selection[END_REF][START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF]. The higher the score, the more advanced the institutional development in the province. For our sample, the NERI index score ranges from -0.30 to 10.46.

Political connections

Following prior studies [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF][START_REF] Yang | Finding the Ethics of "Red Capitalists": Political Connection and Philanthropy of Chinese Private Entrepreneurs[END_REF], we measured political connections as a dummy variable showing whether a firm's chairperson or CEO is a delegate to the People's Congress (PC) or the People's Political Consultative Conference (PPCC) in a given year. In China, the PC is the legislative body of state and the PPCC is the political advisory body of state. For Chinese private firms, being a delegate to the PC and the PPCC is the most important means to build connections with the government [START_REF] Yang | Finding the Ethics of "Red Capitalists": Political Connection and Philanthropy of Chinese Private Entrepreneurs[END_REF].

Control variables

We controlled for several factors that may influence export intensity. We first considered chairperson or TMT characteristics. Chairman age was measured by the age of the chairperson [START_REF] Cheng | Management demography and corporate performance: Evidence from China[END_REF]. Female CEO was coded as 1 if the CEO of a firm was female and 0 otherwise [START_REF] Geiler | Are female top managers really paid less?[END_REF]. TMT overseas experience was measured by the ratio of the number of senior executives with overseas experience to the total number of senior executives [START_REF] Herrmann | Relationships between top management team characteristics and international diversification: An empirical investigation[END_REF].

At the firm level, we controlled for firm size, using the natural logarithm of the total number of employees. Since state ownership has a material impact on export activities [START_REF] Wu | The dual effects of state ownership on export activities of emerging market firms: An inducement-constraint perspective[END_REF], we controlled for state share and measured it as the percentage of shareholdings owned by the government. We included firm slack, which tends to influence the capability to implement strategic decisions [START_REF] Lin | How do managers decide on internationalization processes? The role of organizational slack and performance feedback[END_REF]. Absorbed slack was measured by the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses to sales [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. We controlled for foreign ownership and measured it as the ratio of foreign-owned shareholdings to total shareholdings [START_REF] Xie | Exporting and innovating among emerging market firms: The moderating role of institutional development[END_REF].

We also controlled for location and coded it as 1 if the focal firm is located in a special economic zone or open coastal city and 0 otherwise [START_REF] Lu | The contingent value of local partners' business group affiliations[END_REF].

At the industry level, we controlled for industry competition, measured as 1 minus industry concentration (Herfindahl index), using sales revenue [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Industry export orientation was measured by the percentage of exporters in a specific industry [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF].

We summarize our variable operationalization in Appendix 1. Table 3 provides the descriptive statistics and the correlation matrix. Overall, the magnitudes of the correlations are small, so multicollinearity is not a concern. *** Insert Table 2 and Table 3 here ***

Analyses

To deal with proportional dependent variables, we followed the existing literature [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF] and constructed Tobit models to test our hypotheses. Tobit regression is appropriate for dealing with proportional dependent variables in international business research [START_REF] Wulff | Keeping it within bounds: Regression analysis of proportions in international business[END_REF].

All independent variables were lagged one year in order to address potential endogeneity.

Further, following previous studies [START_REF] Zhang | FDI spillovers in an emerging market: the role of foreign firms' country origin diversity and domestic firms' absorptive capacity[END_REF][START_REF] Zhu | Portfolios of political ties and business group strategy in emerging economies: Evidence from Taiwan[END_REF], we regressed the focal firm's performance (ROA) in year t on the export intensity in year t-1 to test for possible reverse causality. Our results show that the coefficient of export intensity was not significant, which indicates that reverse causality is not a big concern in our model. Model estimation included year-and industry-fixed effects to account for intra-group variation over time [START_REF] Zhou | State ownership and firm innovation in China: An integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[END_REF]. The industry effect was based on the three-digit industry classification [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Our formal model was as follows:

Export intensity !"# = α # + β # × Negative performance peedback ! + β $ × Positive performance peedback ! + β % × Negative performance peedback ! × Institutional develpment ! + β & × Positive performance peedback ! × Institutional develpment ! + β ' × Negative performance peedback ! × Political connections ! + β ( × Positive performance peedback ! × Political connections ! + β ) × Institutional development ! + β * × Political connections ! + γ × Controls ! + ε # (1)
where t refers to the year t and export intensityt+1 indicates the ratio of overseas sales to total sales for the firm in the year t+1. Table 4 summarizes the results. In Model 1, we included a set of executive-, firm-, and industry-level control variables and moderators. In line with previous BTOF-based research [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF], we included negative performance feedback and positive performance feedback in Model 2 to test how performance feedback affects firms' export intensity. In Models 3 and 4, we added the interaction terms between performance feedback and two moderators: institutional development and political connections, respectively.

Model 5 is the full model. *** Insert Table 4 here ***

Results

Model 1 in Table 4 reports the effects of control variables and moderators. First, with respect to CEO and TMT characteristics, both female CEO and TMT overseas experience promote private firm export intensity at the 1% level (b = 0.06 and 0.29, respectively) 3 . Firms with female CEOs have 22.92% more export intensity than those with male CEOs, and a onestandard-deviation increase in TMT overseas experience increases export intensity by 13.76%.

At the firm level, both firm size and foreign ownership relate positively to export intensity of private firms (b = 0.04 and 0.18, respectively, p < 0.01), whereas state share and absorbed slack are negatively related to export intensity (b = -0.31 and -0.45, respectively, p < 0.05 and 0.01).

With respect to the effect size, each standard deviation increase in firm size and foreign ownership strengthens export intensity by 18.04% and 7.21%, respectively. A one-standarddeviation increase in absorbed slack reduces export intensity by 24.21%, and each standard deviation increase in state share decreases export intensity by 3.53%. At the industry and institutional levels, our results show that for each standard deviation increase in industry competition, private firm export intensity decreases by 14.30%. Meanwhile, institutional development is positively associated with private firms' export intensity (b = 0.03, p < 0.01), which is consistent with results from previous studies (e.g., [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF]. Regarding the 3 We further tested the moderating effects of female CEO, TMT overseas experience, and foreign ownership, respectively; however, none are significant. effect size, each standard deviation increase in institutional development increases private firms' export intensity by 18.45%. Based on the effect sizes, the top three antecedents of private firm export intensity are absorbed slack, institutional development, and firm size. Hypothesis 1a proposes that firms' negative performance feedback is positively associated with export intensity. In Model 2 of Table 4, the coefficient of negative performance feedback is negative but not statistically significant (b = -0.00, p > 0.05). Thus, Hypothesis 1a is not supported. Hypothesis 1b proposes that positive performance feedback is negatively associated with export intensity. In Model 2, the coefficient of positive performance feedback is negative and statistically significant at the 5% level (b = -0.28, p < 0.05), which supports Hypothesis 1b. Regarding effect size, for each standard deviation increase in positive performance feedback, the private firm's export intensity in the following year decreases by approximately 3.86%. By comparison, the effect size of performance feedback is smaller than that of control variables such as firm size, industry competition, and institutional development.

Hypothesis 2a states that institutional development strengthens the positive relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity. Model 3 in Table 4 shows that the interaction term between negative performance feedback and institutional development is positive but not significant (b = 0.01, p > 0.05). Hypothesis 2a is thus not supported.

Model 3 also shows that the interaction term between positive performance feedback and institutional development is negative and statistically significant (b = -0.15, p < 0.05), indicating that the negative relationship between positive performance feedback and export intensity is stronger for private firms in regions with higher institutional development. Therefore, Hypothesis 2b is supported.

Hypotheses 3a and 3b propose that for a firm with political connections, there will be a stronger relationship between performance feedback and export intensity when the firm's performance is below or above its aspiration level. The coefficient of the interaction term between negative performance feedback and political connections is positive and statistically significant (b = 0.62, p < 0.05) in Model 4, which supports Hypothesis 3a. The interaction term between positive performance feedback and political connections is negative and statistically significant (b = -0.62, p < 0.05), which supports Hypothesis 3b.

For Hypotheses 2a, 2b, 3a, and 3b, we followed prior BTOF studies (e.g., [START_REF] Audia | Less likely to fail: Low performance, firm size, and factory expansion in the shipbuilding industry[END_REF]Greve, 2003a;[START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF] to plot the corresponding moderating effects in Figure 2 based on the results of Model 5 in Table 4. In Figure 2a, the solid line on the left side and the dotted line on the right side represent firms in regions with high institutional development (i.e., one standard deviation above the mean); the dashed line on the left side and the dot-dashed line on the right side represent firms in regions with low institutional development (i.e., one standard deviation below the mean). In conjunction with the marginal effect analysis in Table 5, we show that the relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is not significant in regions with high institutional development (b = 0.02; p > 0.05) or in regions with low institutional development (b = 0.01; p > 0.05). The relationship between positive performance feedback and export intensity is significantly negative when institutional development is high (b = -0.54; p < 0.01), but becomes nonsignificant when institutional development is low (b = -0.01; p > 0.05).

Figure 2b displays the interactive effects of performance feedback and political connections on firms' export intensity. In conjunction with the marginal effect analysis, we show that the relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is significantly positive for private firms that have political connections (b = 0.53; p < 0.05) but becomes nonsignificant for private firms that have no political connections (b = -0.07; p > 0.05). Meanwhile, the relationship between positive performance feedback and export intensity is significantly negative for private firms that have political connections (b = -0.88; p < 0.01) but becomes nonsignificant for private firms that have no political connections (b = -0.17; p > 0.05).

*** Insert Table 5 and Figure 2 here *** We performed several tests to assess the robustness of our results. First, we used two alternative measures of institutional development to retest the hypotheses. One is the shortest geographical distance between the province in which the focal firm is located and first-tier cities in China. We reverse-coded the geographical distance so that a larger number indicates better development. The other is GDP per capita of the province where the focal firm is located. As Models 1 and 2 in Table 6 show, the results are highly consistent. Second, to deal with the potential influence of firms that only sell overseas, we excluded those firms with a 100% export ratio from the sample. The results (Models 3-6 in Table 6) remain highly consistent. Third, considering that feedback effects may take time to have a meaningful impact on export intensity, we regressed firm export intensity in years t+2 and t+3 on performance feedback in year t. Both yielded consistent results, which are available upon request. *** Insert Table 6 here ***

Discussion and Conclusion

Building on the BTOF and institutional view, we investigate how performance feedback affects Chinese private firms' export intensity and how institution-related factors moderate this relationship. Based on a sample of Chinese listed private firms between 2008 and 2017, we find that positive performance feedback significantly reduces a private firm's export intensity.

However, negative performance feedback has no impact on export intensity, which may be due to the fact that that overseas expansion typically requires financial and managerial resources, such as close and direct relationships with overseas dealers. Although underperforming private firms are motivated to seek opportunities in foreign markets, they may lack adequate resources to do so.

Moreover, our results show that the effect of positive performance feedback is more salient for high levels of institutional development and for firms with political connections. The relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity turns positive only when a private firm has political connections. The latter further validates our explanation for the insignificant direct effect of negative performance feedback. That is, politically connected private firms are less likely to encounter resource constraints when they are motivated to expand internationally, and therefore exhibit increasing export intensity as performance decreases.

However, our results do not support the moderating role of institutional development for underperforming private firms. One possible reason may be that institutional development supports fair competition within domestic markets, which encourages underperforming private firms to compete locally to restore performance shortfalls and thus reduces their intention to export.

Theoretical contributions

Our findings make two main contributions. First, our study enriches the literature on firm export by introducing performance feedback as an important driver of emerging market firms' export intensity. Previous studies mainly draw on the RBV, industry-based view, or institutional view to explain firms' export behaviors (e.g., [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Kim | What drives the export performance of small and mediumsized subcontracting firms? A study of Korean manufacturers[END_REF].

However, recent research suggests that export decisions are more complex than current models predict, and calls for the consideration of different decision-maker goals and aspirations [START_REF] Surdu | Back to basics: Behavioral theory and internationalization[END_REF]. Following this view, our study draws on the BTOF to argue for the importance of performance feedback in firm export behaviors. The results show that positive performance feedback decreases firms' export intensity, which is consistent with arguments in the BTOF that performance above aspirations reduces managers' risk-taking (Greve 2003a). Accordingly, our findings support the relevance of performance feedback as a behavioral driver in explaining a series of risk-taking internationalization initiatives including exporting.

Second, we contribute to the BTOF literature by adding export as another risk-taking behavior and examining the moderating effect of institution-related factors in the performance feedback model. Prior empirical research has shown that performance feedback affects a wide array of risky behaviors, such as R&D [START_REF] Chen | Determinants of firms' backward-and forward-looking R&D search behavior[END_REF] and bribery [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. Our findings confirm that exporting is also one of the risky behaviors adopted by firms in response to performance feedback, thus extending the BTOF-based research. Moreover, previous BTOFbased studies mainly examine how intra-firm factors such as CEO characteristics [START_REF] Blagoeva | Problem-solving or selfenhancement? A power perspective on how CEOs affect R&D search in the face of inconsistent feedback[END_REF] and firm size and structure [START_REF] Audia | Less likely to fail: Low performance, firm size, and factory expansion in the shipbuilding industry[END_REF][START_REF] Gaba | Corporate structure and performance feedback: Aspirations and adaptation in M-form firms[END_REF] affect firms' response to performance feedback, with little attention paid to the influences of institutional contingencies [START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. However, institutions significantly affect managers in private firms in terms of the cognition of performance and the evaluation of risk in emerging markets like China [START_REF] Yang | Finding the Ethics of "Red Capitalists": Political Connection and Philanthropy of Chinese Private Entrepreneurs[END_REF]. Our study reveals that institutional development and political connections can moderate the performance feedback-export link by influencing private firm managers' perceptions of performance and risk [START_REF] Iriyama | Playing dirty or building capability? Corruption and HR training as competitive actions to threats from informal and foreign firm rivals[END_REF][START_REF] Xu | Deviant versus aspirational risk taking: The effects of performance feedback on bribery expenditure and R&D intensity[END_REF]. This finding suggests that in addition to the individual characteristics and firm structure that have been discussed in previous research, the motivational consequences of performance feedback can be significantly weakened or amplified by institution-related elements in the private sector.

Hence, introducing institutional characteristics as boundary conditions helps delineate a full picture of performance feedback-risk taking behavior, especially in an emerging market context.

Managerial Implications

Our findings carry important managerial implications. First, managers of private firms should be aware that decision-making with respect to exporting is susceptible to their cognitive perceptions. Our findings show that private firms with performance below or close to industry average levels export more, whereas those with better performance export less. In the case of China's garment industry, for instance, industry leaders (e.g., Toread) exhibit low export intensity. In contrast, some firms with below-average performance (e.g., Mailyard) actively expand overseas. However, if outperforming private firms react to positive performance feedback by reducing their exposure to overseas markets, they may not be able to take advantage of foreign trade and market opportunities. Hence, managers in outperforming private firms should overcome their inertia and watch global markets closely to spot potential opportunities.

Second, our findings suggest that regional institutional development affects Chinese private firms' export decisions. Managers of private enterprise should fully recognize and understand the role of institutional factors in their firm's export decision-making. Our results show that as institutional development improves, the export intensity of outperforming private firms decreases even more. Accordingly, when making export decisions, managers of private firms with positive performance feedback should be aware that improving institutional environments may lead to certain opportunity costs, with more attention being shifted to the domestic market. This may lead to missed opportunities in overseas markets. Hence, it is necessary for managers of outperforming private firms to carefully evaluate the costs of increasing their focus on domestic markets.

Private firms' political connections also influence the effect of performance feedback on export behavior. When receiving positive performance feedback, private firms with strong political ties tend to export less than firms without such ties. This should remind managers of politically connected outperforming firms to be careful not to become overly dependent on local markets and forgo opportunities in overseas markets. Further, the government should do more to encourage these private firms to expand their overseas business and use their resource advantages to compete with other firms in international markets. We also find that underperforming private firms with political ties are more likely to increase export intensity than those without. Hence, if private firms with poor performance want to export, hiring a politically connected chairman or CEO is a reasonable option.

Limitations and Future Research

Our study has several limitations. First, it is embedded in the context of China, an emerging economy with unique characteristics. Further research on different countries or regions would help determine the applicability of our findings to other contexts. In addition, given that private firms are more affected by local institutional environments and vary in their level of political connections compared to SOEs, we focus on private manufacturing firms listed in China in our study. We also ran separate regressions for the SOE sample, and the results for the link between performance feedback and export intensity are similar to the findings for private firms. It indicates that SOEs also compare economic performance with their industry peers to make export decisions. However, the moderating effects of institutional development and political connections are not supported by the SOE sample, which suggests that SOE managers' perceptions of performance and risk are not greatly affected by institutional environment and the firm's political connections. Hence, we encourage future research to explore more contingencies that may influence the impact of performance feedback on risky behaviors for SOEs.

Second, our study examines two institutional contingencies, whereas other important contingencies may change the performance feedback-export intensity link, such as informal institutional characteristics and firm-level rules and culture [START_REF] Kostova | Institutional theory in the study of multinational corporations: A critique and new directions[END_REF]. We encourage future studies to examine how these factors impact the export activities of firms in emerging markets.

Third, regarding the operationalization of the variables, we measure political connections through visible formal relationships between executives and governments. Future research could adopt survey methods to measure informal connections. Also, we focus on export intensity because we are interested in identifying why Chinese private firms contribute such a large proportion to China's total exports. It would be interesting to investigate how performance feedback affects other indicators of exporting, such as export propensity and variety [START_REF] Gao | A "strategy tripod" perspective on export behaviors: Evidence from domestic and foreign firms based in an emerging economy[END_REF][START_REF] Ivus | Does stronger patent protection increase export variety? Evidence from US product-level data[END_REF][START_REF] Zhao | The impact of industry concentration and firm location on export propensity and intensity: An empirical analysis of Chinese manufacturing firms[END_REF]. Another promising avenue would be to differentiate between various types of export, such as customized (outsourcing) and non-customized (ordinary trade) exporting. Compared with ordinary trade, outsourcing exporters often act as factories but are not involved in other value-added activities such as design, development, marketing, sales, and services. Future studies can delve deeper by investigating how firms that engage in diverse types of export vary in their export decision-making. In addition, performance feedback in different domains may have different impacts on firm behaviors. For instance, differentiating performance feedback in domestic and overseas markets could be a promising way to further develop our model.

Fourth, recent studies show that manufacturing firms have increasingly grappled with environmental protocols, which have likely affected their export decisions [START_REF] Shi | Environmental regulation and firm exports: Evidence from the eleventh Five-Year Plan in China[END_REF] Wu

  (1) We collected data on firms' overseas sales from WIND Data Services. (2) We obtained basic information on firms and industries from China Stock Market and Accounting Research (CSMAR). (3) Institutional indices were developed by the National Economic Research Institute (NERI) for different provinces in China. Both WIND and CSMAR are publicly available databases on Chinese listed firms. All three data sources and datasets have been widely used for strategy and international business research

Figure

  Figure 1 Conceptual model

Export intensity t+1 Performance relative to aspirations t

					Performance relative to aspirations t
								0.3
	Export intensity t+1							2
	-0.35	-0.3	-0.25	-0.2	-0.15	-0.1	-0.05	0	0.05	0.1	0.15	0.2
				Negative performance feedback & High institutional development
				Positive performance feedback & High institutional development
				Negative performance feedback & Low institutional development
				Positive performance feedback & Low institutional development
							0.4
							0.3
							0.2
							0.1
							0
	-0.35	-0.3	-0.25	-0.2	-0.15	-0.1	-0.05	0	0.05	0.1	0.15	0.2
				Negative performance feedback & Political connections
				Positive performance feedback & Political connections
				Negative performance feedback & No political connections
				Positive performance feedback & No political connections

Table 1 The moderating effect of institutions on firm export intensity Illustrative studies Sampling Independent variable Moderator Dependent variable Theory Logics Firm-level institution-related factors

 1

							1. Knowledge spillovers improve technology, enhancing
	Yi et al., 2013	Chinese manufacturing firms, 2005-2007	Innovative capabilities	1. Foreign ownership 2. Government relationship 3. Business group	Export intensity	RBV; Institution-based views	export prospects. 2. Government ties provide resources complement existing technologies, thus promoting export. 3. Internal markets facilitate innovation, thus improving
							export intensity.
	Institutional environment
	Lu et al., 2009	Chinese listed firms, 2002-2005	Outside director ratio; CEO shareholding; Ownership concentration	Institutional environment (NERI index)	Export intensity	Agency perspective; based views Institution-	Governance mechanisms are more effective in developed institutional environments.
	Yi et al., 2013	Chinese manufacturing firms, 2005-2007	Innovative capabilities	Institutional environment (NERI index)	Export intensity	RBV; Institution-based views	Firms in market-based mechanisms pursue externally oriented strategies and emphasize the role of innovation in internationalization.
	Wu & Zhao, 2015	4,239 firms from 16 emerging economies, & 10,000 Chinese exporting firms	State ownership	Home country government effectiveness (Index from International Country Risk Guide)	Export intensity	Resource dependence theory; Agency theory	Government effectiveness attenuates the benefits and suppresses the costs of state ownership on export intensity.
							1. Corruption leads to local market uncertainties,
							rendering firms commit resources to exporting.
	Manolopo ulos et al., 2018	150 small and medium-sized firms in Greece in 2014	Resources	1. Corruption 2. Export bureaucracy 3. Export regulations (questionnaires)	Export intensity	RBV; Institution-based views	2. Efficient bureaucratic system reduces resource-consuming and thus resources are effectively targeted at foreign markets. 3. To compensate for efficiency losses due to complex
							export regulations, SMEs commit resource surplus to
							enhance export.

Table 2 Industry distribution of the sample firms

 2

	Industry	N	Industry	N
	Food processing industry	23	Rubber and plastic products industry	44
	Food manufacturing industry		Non-metallic mineral manufacturing
		17	industry	41
	Wine, beverage and refined tea		Ferrous metal smelting and processing
	manufacturing industry	13	industry	4
	Textile industry	23	Nonferrous metal smelting and processing industry	28
	Clothing industry	25	Metal products industry	35
	Leather, fur, feather and footwear		General machinery manufacturing
	industry	5	industry	65
	Wood, bamboo, rattan, palm and grass		Special machinery manufacturing
	processing industry	6	industry	108
	Furniture manufacturing industry	5	Motor manufacturing industry	52
	Paper processing industry	15	Other transportation equipment manufacturing industry	17
	Printing and recording media		Electrical machinery manufacturing
	reproduction industry	10	industry	145
	Education, industrial beauty, sports and entertainment manufacturing industry	6	Computer, communications and electronic equipment manufacturing industry	179
	Petroleum processing, coking and
	nuclear fuel processing industry	5	Instrument manufacturing industry	31
	Chemical manufacturing industry	111	Waste resource utilization manufacturing industry	3
	Pharmaceutical industry	121	Other manufacturing industry	8
	Chemical fiber manufacturing industry	11

Table 3 Descriptive statistics and correlations

 3 0.24 ** -0.07 ** -0.06 ** -0.02 * 0.13 ** -0.03 ** -0.02 0.11 ** 0.08 ** 0.02 0.03 ** 1.00

	N = 6539; * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, two-tailed test

* * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, two-tailed test

Table 6

 6 p<0.05, ** p<0.01, two-tailed test

	Robustness checks
			Model 1	Model 2	Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6
			Distance	GDP		Excluding export-only firms
			measure	measure
	Negative performance feedbackt (H1a)	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.04
			(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.10)	(0.10)	(0.10)	(0.10)
	Positive performance feedbackt	(H1b)	-0.22 *	-0.27 *	-0.26 *	-0.25 *	-0.27 *	-0.25 *
			(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
	Negative performance feedbackt	(H2a)	-0.02	0.30		0.01		-0.01
	× Institutional developmentt		(0.02)	(0.22)		(0.06)		(0.06)
	Positive performance feedbackt	(H2b)	-0.17 **	-0.59 *		-0.15 *		-0.17 *
	× Institutional developmentt		(0.03)	(0.25)		(0.07)		(0.07)
	Negative performance feedbackt	(H3a)					0.61 *	0.60 *
	× Political connectionst						(0.28)	(0.28)
	Positive performance feedbackt	(H3b)					-0.56 *	-0.65 *
	× Political connectionst						(0.31)	(0.31)
	Institutional developmentt		0.01 **	0.07 **	0.03 **	0.03 **	0.03 **	0.03 **
			(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
	Political connectionst		0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
			(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	Chairman aget		-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00
			(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
	Female CEOt		0.05 **	0.05 **	0.05 **	0.05 **	0.05 **	0.05 **
			(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	TMT overseas experiencet		0.30 **	0.30 **	0.30 **	0.30 **	0.30 **	0.30 **
			(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
	Firm sizet		0.04 **	0.04 **	0.04 **	0.04 **	0.04 **	0.04 **
			(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
	State sharet		-0.36 **	-0.34 **	-0.33 **	-0.33 **	-0.33 **	-0.33 **
			(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)
	Foreign ownershipt		0.19 **	0.18 **	0.19 **	0.19 **	0.18 **	0.18 **
			(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
	Absorbed slackt		-0.48 **	-0.46 **	-0.44 **	-0.44 **	-0.44 **	-0.44 **
			(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
	Industry competitiont		-0.41 **	-0.40 **	-0.42 **	-0.42 **	-0.42 **	-0.42 **
			(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)
	Industry export orientationt		0.07	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.05	0.05
			(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)
	Locationt		-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00
			(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	Constant		0.05	-0.88 **	-0.17	-0.17	-0.17	-0.17
			(0.14)	(0.17)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)
	Year and Industry dummy		yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
	N		6539	6539	6516	6516	6516	6516
	Log likelihood		-1572.88	-1591.89	-1359.54 -1357.08 -1353.82 -1350.81
	R 2		0.331	0.322	0.381	0.382	0.384	0.385

*

[START_REF] Lu | The contingent value of local partners' business group affiliations[END_REF]

Acknowledgements:

We would like to thank our editor, Fang Lee Cooke, and three anonymous reviewers for their insightful and constructive guidance throughout the review process. This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71902118 and No. 71872073) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 19JNYH02). All authors contribute equally to this paper.

 [START_REF] Wu | Export intensity and MNE customers' environmental requirements: Effects on local Chinese suppliers' environment strategies[END_REF]. More green and CSR engagement can help emerging market firms build foreign connections and access international markets. This motivates further research on how CSR or environmental concerns affect a firm's response to performance feedback and its export-led growth. Finally, although we consider managers' cognition as the underlying mechanism, we do not have data to directly test these arguments. To unpack the pertinent mechanisms, future research can investigate how managers' perception of risk acts as the mediator in performance feedback models.


G Michel

P Berthod

S Mathieu

M Vilasi

PACK-CEMENTATION OF CHROMIUM ON Co, Ni AND Fe-BASED CARBIDES-STRENGTHENED ALLOYS: INFLUENCE OF THE CARBIDES NATURE ON THE Cr-ENRICHMENT

Superalloys, w hich are mainly based on cobalt, nickel and/or iron [START_REF]Superalloys: A Technical Guide[END_REF], are usually exposed to high temperature oxidation. To resist t his phenomenon they are designed to contain high amounts in Cr, Al or Si to develop external protective oxide scales [START_REF]High Temperature Oxidation and Corrosion of Metals[END_REF]. T hese elements must be in quantities high enough in t he bulk, or only in t he subsurface w here t hey are really useful to combat hot oxidation. In t he later case a surface enrichment can be achieved by using pack-cementation, a CVD technique used since many years ago to superficially enrich cobalt alloys wit h chromium [START_REF] Faber | The role of chromium in corrosion and oxidation resistant alloys and coatings[END_REF], nickel alloys wit h aluminium [START_REF] Choux | Elaboration of nickel aluminide diffusion coatings: application to oxidation resistance[END_REF] or iron alloys wit h silicon [START_REF] Mukherji | Diffusion coatings on steel[END_REF], for example. T he success of such operation depends on t hermodynamic and kinetic conditions, but also on some microstructure characteristics of t he alloy. T he aim of t his work is t o explore t he possible influence of the nature of the carbides which are in some cases used to mechanically reinforce some refractory cast alloys (notably against creep deformation).

It appears t hat the Cr-enrichment failed in t he case of all alloys w hich initially contained interdendritic chromium carbides as single reinforcing phase or present toget her wit h tantalum carbides. Whatever t he base element, t his was due t o t he formation of a chromium carbide involving t he carbon at oms diffusing from deeper, released by t he dissolution of t he bulk chromium carbides. In contrast, w hen TaC were t he single carbides present in a Co-based or Fe-based alloy, t he inward chromium diffusion w as never inhibited and a sub-surface really enriched in chromium (up to 30wt.% in some cases) was observed. T his difference results from t he higher stability of t he TaC at high temperature. In contrast, t he lack of stability of tantalum carbides earlier observed in Ni-based alloys [START_REF] Berthod | Experimental and thermodynamic study of the high temperature microstructure of tantalum containing nickel-based alloys[END_REF] led again t o t he development of a carbide layer along t he surface of t he TaC-containing nickel alloy. In t he cases w here t he Cr-enrichment of t he sub-surface was successful, t he incorporation in t he sub-surface of t he cement grains still sticked t o surface and a deeper inward diffusion of t he added chromium can be achieved by applying an additional long high-temperature heattreatment.

To conclude, one can say t hat t he success of t he sub-surface enrichment in chromium by pack -cementation of carbides-reinforced alloys t hus supposes t hat t he bulk's carbides are very stable, even in presence of a neighbour high Cr activity. It appeared here t hat TaC are to be prefered t o Cr

Fe

  7 C 3 or Cr 23 C 6 , at least in cobalt-based or iron-based alloys. Institut Jean Lamour (UMR 7198), Département CP2S Faculté des Sciences et Technologies, Université de Lorraine, Boulevard des Aiguillettes, BP 70239, 54506 VANDOEUVRE-LES-NANCY (France) patrice.berthod@univ-lorraine.fr Several alloys based on Co, Ni or Fe, all with a chromium content equal to 10wt.%Cr and containing either chromium car bi des or tantalum car bi des wer e elaborat ed by foundr y and subjected t o chr omium deposition by pack cementation at 1050°C during about 10 hours (7h30 for the Ni alloys, 7h30 and 15h for the Co alloys, 15h for the Fe alloys). The samples wer e cut and metallographically prepar ed, before observation of t heir surface using el ectron microscopy and acquisition of transversal Cr-profiles using microprobe.chromium-carbide layer chromium-carbide layer total disappearance of the bulk's chromium carbides rarefaction of the bulk's tantalum carbides zone successfully enriched in chromium particles of master alloy sticked to the sample