text:
Programming AI with Leaf/Q&A

Leaf Selected Questions and Answers
Q: Can you change the names in the scripts to other names like Fred or Dave and will that change his feelings?

A: Yes. But his feelings also change over time as you interact with him.

Q: I have leaf up and running on my desktop. Leaf says Ana is his favorite person. If I replace all of the places 'Ana' is in program will another name, will that change Leaf's favorite person?

A: Yes and no. If I say "Leaf this is Bruce", then he knows me because I've put in scripts in my name (search Leaf.lisp for Bruce and you'll see). And if after identifying yourself you interact with Leaf for a while, he'll remember how you made him feel. He also remembers when he last saw you. So, if he had a good experience - or if he just hasn't seen you in a while - he'll start to want to see you.... and he'll tell you you're his favorite person. Try saying "Leaf this is Ana" - I'll bet he says he's surprised! Anyway, that's the idea - so now yes you can change the name from Ana to Dave or whoever you want... but remember Leaf's feelings change so he won't like anyone who isn't nice to him! And don't forget to add "this is Dave" to the speech.xml file. --Bruce Q: What phases I can ask?

A: You will find the list of phrases that you can ask Leaf in the main control loop in Leaf.lisp. Also, You can add phrases there (if you do, you'll also have to add them in speech.xml). --Bruce. Q: How much torque be enough for a wheeled version of Leaf? A: What matters in the end is how much force the motor can apply to the ground to push the robot forward. This is a function of the basic motor torque, the gear reductions and wheel diameter. My basic motor which provides about 25 oz-in of torque at  stall, provides almost 900 oz-in to the wheel. Since the wheel has a radius of 4 inches, the wheel can apply 225 oz of force to the ground (or 14 pounds). With two wheels providing a maximum of 28 pounds of force and an 80 pound robot, (My robot) Rocky can climb about a 20 degree slope, although very slowly, and has plenty of torque for moving around on a flat floor or rugs. Generally it is better to use a large gear reduction since it is easier to control the wheels accurately if the motor makes a lot of turns compared to the wheel. Just make sure you don't use so much gear reduction that the robot is not capable of moving very fast at the motors' top speed.

Q: How fast should Leaf go?

A: I consider around 2 feet per second maximum to be a reasonable (maximum) speed since it gives you a good chance to catch up to an out of control robot before it hits something. Most Leaf robots are pretty heavy and could do some damage if they hit something (or someone) going fast.

Q: How does the emotion engine work in the leaf software architecture ?

A: Leaf has a number of different emotions - happy, sad, hungry, bored, etc. And they change continuously depending on circumstances, environment and activities - if you interact with him, he'll likely be happy, if his battery is low, he'll be hungry, etc.

He then uses his emotional state to help him decide what he's going to do next. If he's bored, he might pick an activity at random. If he's tired, he might take a nap. And so on.

He also remembers his feelings in association with the people he's been interacting with. So, let's say he's talking to me. And he's happy. He'll remember that for the next time we run into each other. But if the association wasn't so good, well he might not be too pleased to see you again!

The point is that Leaf is meant to be autonomous - he's meant to have his own "personality". He isn't meant to be just a voice controlled toy robot - oh you can put him in "command mode" and he'll follow your voice orders, but don't expect him to like it! Anyway, his emotions are his motivation to do things (or not) - and serve then to give him a basic "personality". --Bruce.

Q: Are there any phrases in the leaf software that I shouldn't change? A: The actual statements are meaningless except for us humans, its the emotional tags (the values that are set that really influence the way leaf reacts.

Q: How do i change the (CSLU) animated face of leaf?

A: Right click on the face. --Bruce.

Q: Why does Leaf say "goodbye" and shutdown for no apparently good reason?

A: If Leaf encounters a fatal error, he'll say "goodbye" and shutdown. The only time I've seen this happen is if he's looking for some piece of code that isn't properly loaded or running. -Bruce.

Q: How do I use wav files to respond to questions in place of the computer voice.

A: You put your wav files in the LeafSounds folder. Now create a shortcut in Leaf.lisp (look near the beginning of the code listings) that looks something like this: (defconstant burp "c:/Program Files/Leaf/LeafSoun ds/burp.wav" ) Now if you want Leaf to make a sound just use this kind of statement: (PlayWav burp) So anywhere I've used sapi-tts to have Leaf talk, you could use a PlayWav instead to make a sound. -Bruce

Q: When making a shortcut, does the shortcut name have to match the file name exactly?

A: Yes. -Bruce

Q: Do I need a shortcut for every wav file instance?

A: Yes. -Bruce

Q: Does a text phrase need to be written for every question leaf is to understand and is this how I add more questions leaf will understand?

A: Yes. We haven't really developed natural language processing. In the meantime, Leaf "understands" by simply matching text phrases you've previously entered. And, when adding phrases to the control loop, and don't forget to also add them to the speech.xml file. -Bruce

Q: How do I point leaf to the matching response/responses to a text phrase?

A: Once a phrase is heard and matched to a phrase you've entered into the control loop, you call a script you've written to do whatever you want it to do. -Bruce

Q: Can I customize leaf so that instead of using Microsoft's TTS, he plays pre-recorded sound files of such robots as the Lost in Space Robot(B9), or Robby the Robot, or R2D2 or C3P0 or Wall-E?

A: Yes. A few of the B9 owners have (my) customized Leaf software that does that using pre-recorded wav files. It's not hard, but it is quite time consuming programming in every question and answer that you want your Leaf/B9/Wall-e to answer. -Thomas Messerschmidt

Q: What does "OSLA" stand for?

A: OSLA (Objects Situations Location (and) Actions)is the top level "parent" node in a portion of Leaf's programming that I programmed in Lisp's Object Oriented code known as CLOS. The "children" are Objects (i.e. things), Situations (Leaf's internal emotions and "state"), Location (where he is at the moment) and Actions (activities that he can choose to do)...I left it in there so anyone with an interest in such things could look at it and use it as an example... --Dr. Bruce.

Q: How do I play MP3 files with Leaf?

A: Here is some sample code that will let you play MP3 files:

(defconstant mysong "C:/MyLeafMP3s/mysong.mp3")

(defun PlayMP3 (mysong ) ;  (sys:call-system mysong :wait nil)  )

 * Note that you will need the full path to your mp3 file and that you must not have any spaces in the directory name or the file name. Your default MP3 player must be WMP. I'm not sure what will happen with others. I noticed that the first time it may clip off the beginning of the file. Also, it does not close WMP.

Q: How do I use Roborealm to navigate leaf through doorways using its "gates" function?

Q: How do I hook up and use Microsoft's Kinect sensors?

Q: How do I get leaf to identify items in his environment?

A: This has been done with Roborealm software.

Q: How do I navigate with Roborealm and fiducials?

Q: How do I use Leaf's chatbot code that Bruce wrote?

Q: Did Anyone Ever get the leaf chatbot to work? A: Yes.The trick is to use the LeafInterfaces.lisp folder and the Leaf.lisp folder and the speech.xml that comes with the chat program.

Q: What are the latest files and versions for Leaf?

Q: How do I set up and use Leaf's face recognition? A: This has already been explained in the Make Your own Leaf section.

Q: How do I get Leaf to pull and read data from such places as Wiki?

Q: How do I get Leaf to read my email to me from the Web?

Q: How do I get Leaf to read the latest news, weather and sports? A: This has already been explained in this wiki.

Q: How do I keep Leaf from running into walls or down stairs? A: Install the sharp IR sensors for either bumpers or cliff detectors. Also, you can install      Ultrasonic sensors. Also, you can use actual bumper switches.

Q: How do I use the X10 to turn on and off lights in my house?

title: Programming AI with Leaf/Q&A


text:
Programming AI with Leaf/Overview

Overview
The Leaf Project is a group robot development program whose objective is to develop a robot platform that supports experiments with artificial intelligence, computer vision|vision, navigation, etc.

Leaf was created by Bruce Weimer. He is an artificial life program. Leaf was inspired by the computer game Creatures (artificial life program)|Creatures, by Steve Grand, in which artificial beings hatch, develop, and interact in a simulated environment.

Leaf:
 * has an artificial personality
 * is an open source project
 * responds to spoken commands
 * responds to visual information
 * can be used with just a Personal computer
 * can be interfaced to a robot through his own circuit board
 * is programmed in LISP
 * can use a CSLU Toolkit animated face
 * uses Robin Hewitt's webcam implementation to for vision
 * can be completely customized and users are encouraged to customize and improve him
 * software is currently used in an R2-D2 replica
 * has a hardware/ electronic platform created by Alex Brown that supports basic mobility, sensing and control from an on-board PC

Three Leaf robots were completed in 2004 and four more were built in 2006.

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

title: Programming AI with Leaf/Overview


text: Programming AI with Leaf/Leaf's Creators


text:
Programming AI with Leaf/Creating Your Own Leaf

Creating Your Own Leaf, a Tutorial
Adding a new person to Leaf

The following applies to version 01-01-07 only, although it may be a guide to other versions.

There are 2 parts to this process. One part is adding the person to the Leaf "brain" and the other loading up a reference image so Leaf can "See" you.

We'll start with adding you to Leafs brain. Not much point in Leaf being able to see you if Leaf doesn't know who s/he is looking at.

Note in some of the code snippets there is a 'characture in front of the word. This is important and it must be the correct punctuation mark otherwise the lisp compiler will give an error when you save the file.

In this example we will use the name “BOB” if you aren’t BOB then change BOB to your name.

First leaf needs to be able to understand you when you say your name. Go to “speech.xml “ and add

this is Bob between  and this is Bruce

Then save the file.

Open “leaf.lisp” in the lisp editor (save a copy first in case you have problems)

First we need an object for the person.

Locate the line ;;;; OBJECTS: "nothing person alex bruce gary robin obstacle wall door recharger"

This is the start of the area to add the new person.

Scroll down to just after (make-instance 'robin)) And before      ;;;  defclass:osla:object:toy  ;;;

Robin is the last person currently defined

Add a new person with the following code

;;; defclass:osla:object:person:bob  ;;; (defclass bob (person) ) ;     ;;    defparameter:osla:object:person:robin (defparameter bob      (make-instance 'bob))

Leaf now has an object to store you in.

Now you would like Leaf to play a game with you so locate the line ;;; defclass:osla:activity:play  ;;;

This is the start of where games are configured for each person.

Scroll down to the gap between (defparameter playgary      (make-instance 'play :happy '(setf happy (+ happy 10)) :sad '(setf sad (/ sad 2)))) and ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

Gary is the last person to have a game defined. We will set bob to play “mine sweeper” We will also make Leaf more happy and less sad when we play.

Insert the code (defmethod play ((x bob)) ;for specific instances       "(play bob)"         (sapi-tts '"Would you like to play mine sweeper?")         (system:call-system '("c:\\WINDOWS\\system32\\winmine.exe") :wait nil)) (defparameter playbob      (make-instance 'play :happy '(setf happy (+ happy 10)) :sad '(setf sad (/ sad 2))))

We also want leaf to play music for you. We will use “mission impossible” & we will also make Leaf more happy and less sad

This is the following section so scroll down to between (defparameter playmusicbruce      (make-instance 'playmusic :happy '(setf happy (+ happy 10)) :sad '(setf sad (/ sad 2))))

and

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

And add the following

(defmethod playmusic ((play-bob bob)) ;for specific instances       "(playmusic bob)"         (sapi-tts '"Here's mission impossible.")         (PlayWav mi01)) (defparameter playmusicbob      (make-instance 'playmusic :happy '(setf happy (+ happy 10)) :sad '(setf sad (/ sad 2))))

We want leaf to have feelings about us so we add a behaviour script.

Locate the line ;;;; BEHAVIOR SCRIPTS  ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

and scroll down to between (defun robinscript        (NowFocusOn 'robin)        (setf lonely 0)        (updatemood)        (ChangeFacialExpression)        (sapi-tts '"Hello, Robin.")        (sapi-tts (concatenate 'string "Now I'm feeling " (updatemood))))

and (defun bebravescript

Robin is the last person. Add the following (defun bobscript        (NowFocusOn 'bob)        (setf lonely 0)        (updatemood)        (ChangeFacialExpression)        (sapi-tts '"Hello, Bob.")        (sapi-tts (concatenate 'string "Now I'm feeling " (updatemood))))

We can also update the lonely script so Leaf will ask for Bob.

Locate the line (defun lonelyscript

and scroll down to     (sapi-tts (string (car (imagine-if '(ana bruce alex gary)))))

Add Bob to this line so it now reads

(sapi-tts (string (car (imagine-if '(ana bruce alex gary bob)))))

If we want Leaf to be able to like us best locate (defun whodoyoulikebestscript

scroll to the line (sapi-tts (string (car (imagine-if '(ana bruce alex robin gary)))))

and change it to     (sapi-tts (string (car (imagine-if '(ana bruce alex robin gary bob)))))

Lastly we want Leaf to act when we say our name so locate the line ;; LEAF CHECKS TO SEE IF HE'S HEARD A PHRASE HE RECOGNIZES

and scroll down to between ((string-equal *text-phrase* (concatenate 'string robot " this is Ana")) ;behavior       (setf *text-phrase* nil)       (anascript)) and ((string-equal *text-phrase* (concatenate 'string robot " who am I")) ;behavior       (setf *text-phrase* nil)       (WhoAmIscript))

and add the following

((string-equal *text-phrase* (concatenate 'string robot " this is Bob")) ;behavior       (setf *text-phrase* nil)       (bobscript))

Save and compile.

Leaf will now know who you are when you say your name.

Try saying

"leaf this is bob"

"leaf play some music"

Leaf should play "mission impossible"

Now we can add our picture so Leaf knows what we look like.

First make sure leaf is working and can see the camera.

Ask leaf “leaf who am I” leaf should respond with “you look like XXX ” where XXX could be Gary, Alex, Ana, or Bruce.

If Leaf responds with “I can’t see you” try moving so you are directly looking at the camera, as this appears to indicate that OpenCV could not locate a face in the image.

For me it works fine from about 18” through to 3 feet on a cheap web cam.

Once you have had leaf respond with “you look like XXX” you are ready to make Leaf recognise you.

Open the folder “C:\program files\leaf\leaffaces” in there you will find a file “image.jpg”. Note this image does not have a number at the end.

Open this file in an image viewer and check it looks something like you. It doesn’t need to be very good.

Rename this file to “image4.jpg” (assuming you already have images 0 to 3 which are Gary, Alex, Ana, & Bruce).

Open the file “names.txt” in the same directory and add your name to the end of the list. Use capital letters and a space between BRUCE and your name. Save the file.

Open the file “distances.txt” in the same directory and add the following “Euclidean distance to image 4: 0.00”

Note that there is a line between the last entry ant this new text and a blank line at the end. Save this file.

Now when you ask Leaf “Leaf who am I?” Leaf should respond with your name. and now the new and great moe!!


text:
Programming AI with Leaf/Sources for LEAF Robot Parts

Sources for LEAF Robot Parts
Alex Brown on leaf_an_AI_robot(-at-)yahoogroups.com (Leaf micro controller Boards)

http://www.maxbotix.com (LV-MAXSONAR- EZ1)

http://www.radioshack.com

http://www.phidgets.com

http://www.pololu.com

http://www.jameco.com

http://www.trossenrobotics.com

http://www.robotshop.ca

http://www.vexrobotics.com

http://www.parallax.com

http://www.hobbyengineering.com


text:
Talk:Programming AI with Leaf

Editing Talk:Programming AI with Leaf
Hi, and welcome to the Talk page for "Programming AI with Leaf ". We have a procedure for doing things here, and, to help ensure the flow and quality of the book, we'd appreciate it if you followed it as you make your contributions to the book. Thanks. Thomas M

= To Do and Not To Do= If you complete something on the list, DO NOT REMOVE IT FROM THE LIST. use the <strike> and </strike> tags to strike them. This will ensure that others can review what has been added. Thanks.

If something is partialy completed, please use the 'stage short' template to indicate how complete it is.

We make one STRONG RECOMMENDATION if you are going to add to or edit this book: All writers at the very least please install and run leaf succesfully before adding your text. Thomas M

To Do List

 * need pictures
 * need bios of alex, robin, and bruce.
 * need most of book written (ha!)

Note to future editors on how to make table:

 * Organization
 * An index

= Development =

Organizing the book
= Discussion =

title: Talk:Programming AI with Leaf


text:
User talk:Thomas M

Hello and welcome to Wikibooks!

Here are some tips to help you get started:
 * You can sign your name on Talk and vote pages using four tildes, like this: ~~~~.
 * Remember to conduct any editing experiments in the sandbox.
 * If you're a Wikipedian, see Wikibooks for Wikipedians for a primer on how things work here (it's a little different).
 * If you want to base your work here on materials from Wikipedia, please use WB:RFI to bring the material over in compliance with the GFDL.
 * If you're an instructor and plan on using wikibooks for a class project, see Guidelines for class projects
 * Please say hello at the Staff Lounge with any questions or ideas.
 * Eventually, you might want to read the Manual of Style and Policies and Guidelines.
 * Please take a look at Naming policy before starting a new book.
 * Remember to maintain a Neutral point of view.
 * Explore, be bold in editing pages, and have fun!

You will find more resources in Community Portal. If you want to ask a question, visit the Study help desk, the Staff lounge, IRC channel or ask me personally on my talk page.

Good luck! -- Herby talk thyme 10:37, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Thanks for the warm welcome
Wish me luck. I've got 80% of the book completed in my head, 20% in my computer and 1% finished on wikibooks.

Thomas M
 * I wish you luck - enjoy it tho! -- Herby talk thyme 10:45, 26 November 2006 (UTC)

title: User talk:Thomas M


text:
The Cold War/Changes in the USSR

In 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev was unanimously elected as General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union by the politburo. He was far younger (in his fifties) than his predecessors, and, although still a committed Marxist-Leninist, was far more open to western ideas. When he came to power, he found out what had previously been kept from him: that the Soviet Union had massive financial problems:
 * A high percentage of the budget was being spent on subsidies.
 * The Afghanistan War was proving to be both expensive and unsuccessful.
 * The USA was putting on the pressure in the Arms Race, and the USSR did not have the money to keep up.
 * A large proportion of factories were running at a loss.
 * Military spending was high, and was difficult to cut, as no premier could afford to risk offending the Army.
 * The USSR, through COMECON, was supporting many other Communist states, and was entirely responsible for keeping the Cuban economy afloat.

Solutions
Gorbachev, in an attempt to solve these problems by increasing efficiency and productivity, introduced two policies: This meant 'openness'. People were allowed to criticize the way the country was run, the media were no longer controlled, political prisoners were released, and, in 1990, free elections were held, with non-Communist candidates. This meant 'economic restructuring'. Gorbachev decentralized the economy, allowing small businesses, thus motivating people to produce more, more efficiently.
 * Glasnost
 * Perestroika

With regards to foreign policy, Gorbachev decided to let satellite states (such as those in Eastern Europe) go their own way - the USSR would not intervene in their affairs. One adviser called this the 'Sinatra Doctrine'.

Problems caused by the Solutions
These changes inevitably caused problems. Because of glasnost, people were, after years of repression under leaders like Stalin and Brezhnev, finally allowed to say what they thought about the government. Perestroika just was too little change, far too late to make any difference to the economy. Some good products were imported, but only enough to whet people's appetites so that they wanted more, but could not get it. People were still scared of the repression that they had lived under for so long, so not enough small businesses were created. In short, glasnost and perestroika meant that people started to protest more, paving the way to the breakup of the Soviet bloc in 1989, and the coup of 1991 which eventually lead to Gorbachev's resignation and the end of Communism in Russia.

title: The Cold War/Changes in the USSR


text:
Template:The Cold War/stub

'' This or  The  module or this section of The Cold War is a stub. You can help Wikibooks by [ expanding it].'' /Stubs :This template adds page to /Stubs.

title: Template:The Cold War/stub


text:
Template:The Cold War

The Cold War

Introduction - Background - Strategy - Truman Doctrine - Marshall Plan - Berlin Blockade - Korean War - Hungarian Uprising - Cuban Missile Crisis - USSR under Gorbachev - USA under Reagan - Arms Race - Space Race

Cover - Contents - Study Guide

Please read the page creation guidelines before creating a new page.

title: Template:The Cold War


text:
Category:Book:The Cold War/Stubs

Please expand these articles!

title: Category:Book:The Cold War/Stubs


text:
The Cold War/Page creation guidelines

When creating a new page:

 * 1) First check : to make sure that the page hasn't already been created; if it has, please expand on that page instead.
 * 2) If it hasn't already been created, create the page, in a professional style.
 * 3) Then, add to the bottom of the page.
 * 4) If the page doesn't consist of much information (ie. it is a stub), add to the bottom of the page.
 * 5) If the page is a major page in the book, add it to.

Many thanks, --Sjlegg 12:36, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: The Cold War/Page creation guidelines


text:
User talk:Sjlegg

Thank You!
hey, a quick thanks for the as physics wikibook, has been a huge help to me and my classmates. we're going into the exam tomorrow (22 may). any hope of seeing the A2 content on wikibooks? i said thank you in another page, but i think it was in the wrong place and it got deleted by some tightarse moderator. thanks again, benmatthews90 —Preceding unsigned comment added by Benmatthews90 (talk • contribs) 18:35, 21 May 2008 (UTC)  (Moved here from my talk page on Wikipedia)

just want to say thanks for putting up your physics textbook - it saved my life tonight!! Hope you get the A2 stuff ready for when I start it in September! :D 86.147.242.144 (talk) 18:07, 18 February 2008 (UTC)

Your physics material is layed out quite well however you need to brush up on your knowledge of resistors in parallel. I noticed on the internal resistance page the answers to questions were incorrect because you left the resistance in 1/r form and didn't flip it back so the resistance was a lot smaller than it should have been. i have corrected this.

Image:Sonar Principle EN.svg
G'day, this image on Commons has been fixed so that it doesn't render with garbled text; the German text was still there with display:none, but apparently ImageMagick doesn't honour that style directive. I haven't changed your page to use the Commons SVG, however, as I notice you have also changed a variable name in your PNG version. Webaware talk 11:55, 9 April 2008 (UTC)

lemon123
I'd like to echo everyone's thanks for providing such a useful resource for my A level Physics course; the Advancing Physics textbook written by IOP is rubbish (as is my teacher), so your online textbook has made my life a lot easier. I just thought I should inform you of a major mistake you made in the section on radar and triangulation: you said that, for an electromagnetic pulse being transmitted, refeleted by an objected and receieved:

$$c = \frac{d}{2t}$$

whereas it actually should be:

$$d = \frac{ct}{2}$$

This kind of messed up everything on radar in that section, but I've corrected it all now.

Anyway, thanks again for producing this textbook.

AS Physics book (Sensors questions and worked solutions)
I note from your comment at the start of the answers page (http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/A-level_Physics_(Advancing_Physics)/Sensors) that you declare yourself unhappy with the answers. I agree and would like to assist if possible. I think the problem lies in the question. LDRs are not linear in their relationship to the light source and so, whilst the mathematics of the answers is correct, the physics is dubious. The answer to question 7 is wrong since if we assume the -ve terminsl to be zero Volts then the left hand side is at 0V and not nine as stated. The difference at the amplifier is therefore 5V and not 4 as stated.

I do not want to offend the original author. I think the question would be better if it were changed to a thermistor which is fairly linear but in any case needs fixed. I am very new to this wiki stuff and so am reluctant to bash on and change things. Your advice would be greatly appreciated.

I am a physics teacher moving from the Scottish system to the English A levels ect and am looking for useful resources, hence my finding this site. I think in general it is great with loads of useful stuff. Errors need to be fixed though. Spittal (talk) 12:07, 17 August 2010 (UTC)

My advice to you is: Go ahead and 'bash on and change things', as you say! That's what wikis are for. Also, those pages are on my watchlist, so I'll know what changes you make and be able to help out if it looks like you need it. Feel free to ask me any other questions you have.

I hope the number of errors is gradually decreasing - they'll decrease faster if people fix them when they find them, though. It's good to know the wikibook is some use to someone! --Sjlegg (talk) 08:59, 21 August 2010 (UTC)

title: User talk:Sjlegg


text:
User talk:Jfleenor

Hello and welcome to Wikibooks!

Here are some tips to help you get started:
 * You can sign your name on Talk and vote pages using four tildes, like this: ~~~~.
 * Remember to conduct any editing experiments in the sandbox.
 * If you're a Wikipedian, see Wikibooks for Wikipedians for a primer on how things work here (it's a little different).
 * If you want to base your work here on materials from Wikipedia, please use WB:RFI to bring the material over in compliance with the GFDL.
 * If you're an instructor and plan on using wikibooks for a class project, see Guidelines for class projects
 * Please say hello at the Staff Lounge with any questions or ideas.
 * Eventually, you might want to read the Manual of Style and Policies and Guidelines.
 * Please take a look at Naming policy before starting a new book.
 * Remember to maintain a Neutral point of view.
 * Explore, be bold in editing pages, and have fun!

You will find more resources in Community Portal. If you want to ask a question, visit the Study help desk, the Staff lounge, IRC channel or ask me personally on my talk page.

Good luck! -- Herby talk thyme 13:17, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: User talk:Jfleenor


text:
The Cold War/Prague Spring

Introduction
The Prague Spring was a short period of liberalisation in Czechoslovakia between January 5th, 1968 and August 21st, 1968. The Prague Spring came to a violent end after the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies (excluding Romania) invaded the country.

title: The Cold War/Prague Spring


text:
User talk:201.18.134.218

Welcome to Wikibooks. We invite everyone to contribute constructively to our collection. Take a look at the welcome page if you would like to learn more about contributing. However, unconstructive edits are considered vandalism, and if you continue in this manner you may be blocked from editing without further warning. Please stop, and consider improving rather than damaging the hard work of others. Thanks. -- Herby talk thyme 13:51, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: User talk:201.18.134.218


text:
Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Magic/Mimbulus Mimbletonia

Overview
Mimbulus Mimbletonia is a spineless, cactus-like plant with a unique defence mechanism.

Extended Description
Our introduction to this plant occurs when Neville displays it on the Hogwarts Express in Harry's fifth year. Demonstrating its special features, Neville deliberately triggers its defence mechanism, completely covering Harry, Ginny, Luna, and himself in stinksap, mere moments before Cho Chang looks in to say "hello" to Harry.

Analysis
We are told that this plant is quite rare and valuable, and can gather from this that it is very hard to care for. At the end of the book, as we return to the Hogwarts Express for the return home, we see that it has thrived and grown while at the school. We will learn, at the beginning of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, that Neville did quite well on his Herbology OWL, gaining an Outstanding grade; the fact that this plant has done so well reinforces the feeling we have that Neville, for all his shortcomings and self-doubts, is quite skilled at taking care of magical plants.

The purpose of this plant seems to be to increase Neville's self-esteem while damaging Harry's. Neville's obvious liking for this plant and his ability to care for what we are told is a rare and difficult species are rewarded both by the plant's thriving and by Professor Sprout's comments. Neville is greatly heartened by the recognition that he is good at something – his career at Hogwarts seems, in his own eyes, to have been largely devoid of successes. Harry, meanwhile, is in the earliest stages of a relationship with Cho Chang, and feels that he must make a good impression; he feels, correctly, that his image in her eyes is somewhat dimmed, at least temporarily, by the fresh coat of stinksap he has received at Neville's bidding.


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English as an Additional Language/Possessives

We use possessives when we talk about things which are owned by somebody or a direct relation to someone or something. In many languages it is common to talk about possession using a structure like 'object of subject' where the object is owned or possessed by the subject. This is possible in English but it generally sounds unnatural - This is the garden of my mum.

Usually in English we use possessives - This is my mum's garden

Singular Possessives
This is simple. Simply add  's  to the end of the noun if the owner or possessor is singular (I only have one mother).
 * Tom's pen
 * Ross's new house
 * Sarah's DVD player
 * The dog's dinner (dinner of one dog)

Plural Possessives
If the owner or possessor is plural - i.e. many people own it - then we add the  '  after the 's' of the plural noun.
 * The dogs' dinner (dinner of many dogs)


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Polish/Vocabulary

Everyday objects

 * długopis       - pen
 * papier         - paper
 * lampa          - lamp
 * okno           - window
 * krzesło        - chair
 * drzwi          - door

Food and drink

 * kiełbasa       - sausage
 * mleko          - milk
 * wódka          - vodka
 * piwo           - beer
 * chleb          - bread
 * masło          - butter
 * miód           - honey
 * herbata        - tea
 * kawa           - coffee
 * wino           - wine
 * (żółty) ser    - cheese
 * biały ser      - cottage cheese
 * ogórek         - cucumber
 * mięso          - meat
 * warzywa        - vegetables
 * jarzyny        - cooked vegetables
 * marchewka      - carrot
 * ziemniaki (kartofle) - potatoes
 * pierogi         - dumplings
 * zupa            - soup
 * barszcz         - beetroot soup
 * burak           - beetroot
 * sól             - salt
 * pieprz          - pepper
 * naleśniki       - pancakes
 * jabłko          - apple
 * cukier          - sugar
 * kapusta         - cabbage
 * lody            - ice cream

Recreation

 * rower - bicycle
 * basen - swimming pool
 * książka - book
 * czasopismo - magazine
 * park - park

Animals

 * kot            - cat
 * pies           - dog
 * glista         - human ascaris, worm
 * ptak           - bird
 * lew            - lion
 * koń            - horse
 * krowa          - cow
 * kurczak        - chicken
 * byk            - bull
 * kaczka         - duck
 * gęś            - goose
 * żaba           - frog
 * słoń           - elephant
 * żyrafa         - giraffe
 * pająk          - spider
 * ryba           - fish
 * foka           - seal
 * królik         - rabbit
 * lis            - fox

Family (Rodzina)

 * mama           - mum
 * matka          - mother
 * tata           - dad
 * ojciec         - father
 * rodzice        - parents
 * siostra        - sister
 * brat           - brother
 * rodzeństwo     - siblings
 * babcia         - grandma
 * dziadek        - grandpa
 * dziadkowie     - grandparents
 * ciocia         - aunt
 * wujek          - uncle
 * teść           - father-in-law
 * teściowa       - mother-in-law

Colours (Kolory)

 * biały          - white
 * czarny         - black
 * czerwony       - red
 * niebieski      - blue
 * zielony        - green
 * szary          - grey
 * żółty          - yellow
 * brązowy        - brown
 * fioletowy      - violet
 * pomarańczowy   - orange
 * liliowy     - purple
 * różowy         - pink
 * złoty          - golden

title: Polish/Vocabulary


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Future/Concepts

Concepts for the Future
In a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the timeline that is still to occur, i.e. the place in space-time where lie all events that still have not occurred. In this sense the future is opposed to the past (the set of moments and events that have already occurred before) and the present (the set of events that are occurring now).

The future always had a very special place in philosophy and, in general, in the human mind because a huge part of human life needs at least a forecast of events that are to occur.

It is perhaps possible to argue that the evolution of the human brain is in great part an evolution in cognitive abilities necessary to forecast the future, i.e. abstract imagination, logic and induction. The earliest cave paintings depicting the hunting for animals did not depict the past, they allowed to anticipate the future, as only a man can do. Inferring what is to come from what is here is what our ancestors did and what we do with futurology. Knowing the future, imagining it, predicting it is in the nature of humans.

Apocryphology
Apocryphology the study of fictitional worlds that may on the surface be a work of future theory but is actually just an attempt at daydreaming, and is classified as escape literature rather than interpretative or practical literature. Theorizing about the future is not mere daydreaming, nor the work of much of science fiction such as Star Wars, Star Trek, and StarCraft, to name a few. A discipline has evolved from humanity's need to feel secure about the coming of the future, and search for hope and improvement in the quality of life manifested in many of the world's religions. That said, the end-of-the-world scenarios that have been revealed through religions, and which is more concerned with symbolism and rewarding the good, also fall under this class of future theory.

Futurology
By contrast, futurology is an analytical, reasoned-out prediction of the future, and is what this site is concerned with. This takes the form of forecasts by company analysts, trends in oil prices and fashion design, etc. Though many different versions of the future abound, the study is much more difficult to master and its general principles must be learned through study.

Futures studies is the discipline of exploring possible ends that the beginnings of today and yesterday will transform into. It is a rapidly expanding area of research that has ever increasing impacts on success, both for organizations and individuals, due to the fact that society is so rapidly changing. Many predictions have been turned into reality. Science fiction authors have made many technological preductions, both correct and incorrect, starting with Jules Verne, Herbert Wells and Alexander Belyaev.

Predicting the future is by no means an easy task, and requires considerable erudition, creativity, wisdom, and insight. This is because the future will certainly not be the same as it is today, and if we use what we see around us today to predict the future we will not add into play components from both the past and the future. No one predicted the power of a nuclear explosion before Einstein, who knew his physics. Likewise, no contemporary of Volta predicted the impact of electricity. The amount by which the world can change in just a few decades is beyond comprehension, and clearly beyond prediction. However, part of the joy of forecasting is the process of exploring the possibilities and of searching for future truths.

Points of Divergence
Points of Divergence are particular, specific changes that have far-reaching consequences. Examples include the Schrödinger Equation, the Manhattan Project, and 95 Theses, to name a few. These points of divergence should be labelled in any theory, primarily because they are not likely to happen yet are necessary for the remainder of the theory to be supported. Note that certain events—such as Quantum Theory, which came from the Schrödinger Equation; the bombing of Hiroshima, which came from the Manhattan Project; and the Diet of Worms, which came from the 95 Theses—are NOT points of divergence because they follow logically from the parent event which WAS a point of divergence. Points of divergence are direct causes for alternate timelines, as explained below.

Timelines
Timelines are chronologies of a duration event (such as World War 2) and consist of a string of events that occur within a particular time, place, or topic frame. Timelines generally diverge from particular changes, or points of divergence, such as the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. Because there are so many possible points of divergence, and because each one acts as a watershed that splits a future into two separate futures, the sheer number of timelines quickly becomes lengthy, and form groups based on how late into the future the point of divergence occurs. One way to deal with this is to establish a Time Tree, in which the one present splits into a few foreseeable near futures and multitudes of marginally foreseeable far futures. In this Wikia, this can be done by establishing the Points of Divergence as disambigulation pages that serve as a "fork in the road".

The Standard Timeline
In order to establish a view on the future, we must first establish a common timeline which will reasonably follow from past experience and current events. In this way, we will be able to formulate a forecast that is both reliable and specific, instead of prematurely branching off into scenarios. This article will be devoted to establishing such a central timeline.

Time Trees
From the Standard Timeline, we may branch off into various scenarios through the use of Points of Divergence. The first branches will be the most likely, though not as likely as the Standard Timeline, to occur; the subsequent branches off those branches will be even less likely. In this way, the probability of certain events occurring in the future will splinter and become more specific.

title: Future/Concepts


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Organic Chemistry/Foundational concepts of organic chemistry/Nomenclature

< Acids and bases

=Organic Chemistry Nomenclature= Nomenclature means a system of naming. In organic chemistry, naming can be difficult to get a good handle on. Many chemicals were named before a systematic approach was designed and those names are often called the "common names". A great deal of the basics of modern organic chemistry began to be systemized in the latter half of the 19th century and continued into the early 20th century. Chemists often offered different systems of naming and sometimes one outlasted the other and sometimes a mix of the two came into to use. This has lead to a variety of unusual names and often multiple names for the same thing. While many naming conventions in organic chemistry are derived from Greek, some are derived from Latin. And sometimes a mix is used. For example, many organic molecules are named based on the number of carbons in the chain. From one to ten, those prefixes are meth-, eth-, prop-, but-, pent-, hex-, hept-, oct-, non-, dec-. The first 4 are from common usage prior to any systemic naming. pent- through oct- and dec-, all derive from Greek numbers, and non- derives from the Latin number for nine.

The current standard in naming in organic chemistry is called the IUPAC nomenclature. IUPAC is the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry and IUPAC has come up with a standard naming convention for all compounds. As there are millions of known organic molecules and many varieties of piecing them all together, one can imagine that the rules are many and complex.

This tome of naming is the IUPAC Gold Book. When describing naming procedures, this book will often provide simpler rules of naming that don't include all of the exceptions to the rules. We may not discuss all of the possible variations of names, but will more often than not, provide the most common naming methods. These procedures will generally hold you in good stead for almost all situations. When in doubt, however, you will need to consult the Gold Book. This really becomes more important when you're publishing papers in chemistry and you're sharing the information with a wide audience.

Besides legacy names from the early days of chemistry, there are also some variations within the IUPAC naming that can allow a compound to have more than one possible name. You'll witness that in this book where two identical compounds may have two different, but equal names. This variation is provided to give the reader the opportunity to see and become accustomed to the variation. It is weighed against the confusion it causes but as a student of chemistry, you must learn the language, even when that language is sometimes confusing.

<< Foundational concepts | < Acids and bases | Nomenclature | Alkanes >>


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Future/Uncertainty

Uncertainty
In any attempt at theorizing upon the future, a given amount of uncertainty exists; and as the theory becomes more specific or forecasts further into the future, that amount of uncertainty increases. Certainties and uncertainties come mainly through analysis of current trends, laws of society, and laws of nature.

Key Scenario Variables
In scenario planning relative uncertainties are often thought of as key drivers or variables that may shape the future. They also represent variables or unknowns about the future that are typically adjusted to one extreme or the other to enrich a set of strategic planning scenarios.

This page contains a list of "Relative Uncertainties" for strategic planning scenarios out to 2020. For purposes of this page, these relative uncertainties are presented in two tiers. The first tier (thirteen) is composed of the most important uncertainties for the future out to 2020. They are not listed in any specific order. The second tier (ten) is another set of certainties, but of lesser importance.

''The original thirteen certainties were extracted from the National Intelligence Council 2020 project -- "Mapping the Global Future." Please feel free to edit either tier, and move an item from one tier to another. If you do elect to edit the first tier, please post the rationale for your change in the discussion section of this page and provide references, or supporting material to explain or justify your suggested changes.''

First Tier, out to 2020

 * Will globalization pull in lagging economies; and to what degree will Asian countries set new “rules of the game?"
 * What will happen to the gaps between "haves" and "have-nots", will there be backsliding by fragile democracies; can the international system manage or contain financial crises?
 * Will increased connectivity challenge governments?
 * Will the anticipated rise of China/India occur smoothly?
 * Will the EU and Japan be able to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations, will the EU integrate to become a superpower?
 * Will political instability in producer countries cause major supply disruptions?
 * How willing and capable are states and international institutions to accommodate emerging actors?
 * Will religiosity challenge the unity of states and be a source for potential conflict, how will jihadist ideology grow?
 * Will there be more or fewer nuclear powers, will terrorists be able to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons?
 * What precipitating events leading will lead to the overthrow of regimes?
 * How robust will the ability of international actors/institutions be to manage flashpoints and competition for resources?
 * Will new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas?
 * Will other countries more openly challenge Washington, and will the US lose its scientific and technological edge?

Second Tier, out to 2020

 * Will there be very high demographic perturbations (either high or low) from expectations?
 * Will the frequency and importance of shocks to the physical environmental be significant?
 * Will world economic growth be much higher or lower than expected?
 * Will there be broad global religious or ethnic conflicts?
 * Will the level of technology diffusion (know how and distribution) be greatly increased or collapsed?
 * Will state stability increase or decrease significantly?
 * Will the state alliance and partnership increase or decrease radically?
 * Will the US foreign policy engagement philosophy shift radically to either aggressive or passive for the majority of the period?
 * Will the level of terrorism grow or subside radically?
 * Will the US and developed states face a radical increase or decrease in asymmetric security, economic, and political threats?
 * Will the level of regional threats (regional tensions) that must be dealt with grow or fall radically from recent historical norms?
 * Will multilateral institutions become very strong or very weak in the future?

title: Future/Uncertainty


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Future/Certainty

Certainty
In the realm of futures studies, there are few certainties indeed. Those that exist will likely exist for all time. A few of them follow.

 * Only the existence of something can cause something else to exist (These two should be related.)
 * Logical procedures and the resultant Mathematical formulas
 * There will always be change in the universe.
 * Universal laws (entropy will always increase)
 * Human nature will remain constant (though this can be interpreted in many different ways)
 * The farther we predict the future, the more uncertainty is involved.

Assumptions
In scenario planning relative certainties are often thought of as assumptions. Those statements about the future that are very likely to occur and hence they can be written in any scenario. They also do not represent variables or unknowns about the future so they are not typically adjusted to one extreme or the other to enrich a set of strategic planning scenarios.

This page contains a list of "Relative Certainties" for strategic planning scenarios out to 2020. For purposes of this page, these relative certainties are presented in two tiers. The first tier (thirteen) is composed of the most important items for the future out to 2020. They are not listed in any specific order. The second tier (ten) is another set of certainties, but of lesser importance.

''The original thirteen certainties were extracted from the National Intelligence Council 2020 project -- "Mapping the Global Future." Please feel free to edit either tier, and move an item from one tier to another. If you do elect to edit the first tier, please post the rational for your change in the discussion section of this page and provide references, or supporting material to explain or justify your suggested changes.''

First Tier, out to 2020

 * Globalization is largely irreversible, but likely to become less Westernized.
 * World economy will be substantially larger.
 * Increasing number of global firms will facilitate the spread of new technologies.
 * Rise of Asia will occur and possibly the advent of new economic middle-weights.
 * Established powers will have increasingly aging populations.
 * Energy supplies “in the ground‿ are sufficient to meet global demand.
 * Power of nonstate actors is growing.
 * Political Islam will remain a potent force.
 * Some states will see improved WMD capabilities.
 * An arc of instability will span from the Middle East, Asia, to Africa.
 * Great power conflict escalating into total war is unlikely.
 * Environmental and ethical issues will come even more to the fore.
 * US will remain the single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.

Second Tier, out to 2020

 * World population will be between 7 and 9 billion people.
 * Technological advances will maintain the present rate or advance slightly faster
 * No new source of energy will be found, the world will continue to be fossil fuel driven
 * World economic growth will be between 1.5% and 4% but variations among nations will continue to exist.
 * No major anti-US alliances will be formed, but NATO as an institution will be changed, and less likely to be used for coalition planning.
 * States will have increased reliance—especially at the end of the period—in bilateral alliance relationships.
 * War on Al Qaeda will wane through the time period, but other terrorist threats will remain or emerge.
 * Oil prices will remain at their recent prices of $40 to 50 per barrel—adjusted for inflation.
 * There is at least a moderate probability of another Major Theater War involving the United States in the time frame.
 * There will be discontinuous growth rates – some regions will grow, others will remain stagnant, income inequality will increase.

title: Future/Certainty


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Future/Virtual Reality

Virtual reality is, plainly speaking, seeing an imaginary world, rather than the real one. Seeing, hearing, smelling, tasting, feeling. The imaginary world is a simulation running in a computer. The sense data is fed by some system to our brain. The term itself has somewhat fell out of fashion, but games really are our current VR. Virtual reality IS going to be very important. Various technologies (communications, AI, computing, interface) will affect us and together these will shape society in 2015-2020.

Scale and evolution
Virtual reality worlds are running on clusters of servers (sometimes distributed) and usually allow creation of custom content and programming by users. More than ten million people play MMORPGs as of 2005 and about 100 thousand "play" in general purpose worlds. Overall more than 100 million people play 3D computer and video games online (45 million in 2002 ).

The next step (2010–2015) is going to be development of more open systems, where content can be moved across platforms and where separate worlds can be linked (for example a room in a virtual building can be simulated on a private server using different simulation software, but would still be accessible for the people walking in the virtual city). Open source may play a role there. Eventually virtual reality worlds will integrate into a global Metaverse running on a distributed grid.

The step after that will be the integration of these worlds with input/output technologies, such as VR goggles and brain-computer interfaces. By then most of the people will spend a significant part of their lives in virtual reality (playing, communicating, working, having sex). Eventually, uploading will make feasible a full migration into virtual reality, while robotic bodies will make the reverse possible.

Content acquisition
To bridge the gap between reality and virtual reality we need methods to quickly (not slowly and manually ) convert objects from physical reality into digital models and back. This will have much wider implications than just more realistic games, this is going to gradually change what we consider reality.

Some technologies already exist: laser scanners and 3d printers for small objects. Some crude methods already exist to quickly generate 3d models of larger real world scenes (using image processing and LIDAR) - urban landscapes     and indoor environments.

It is already feasible and cost-effective to acquire photographic data for Yellow Pages  using the "drive and shoot" model. Hi-resolution satellite images of urban areas are being incorporated into MSN Virtual Earth. Google is quietly doing similar stuff, and may do much more in the future

Using a combination of these approaches 3D models of cities will soon (est. 2007-2009) be built cheaply and quickly. To create a realistic virtual environment one would only need to clean up the raw data a bit, combine the air photos for rooftops and large buildings with ground level images for details, add virtual pedestrians and traffic on streets.

Photosynth is an upcoming technology from Microsoft (videos, live demo, etc.) to recreate 3D environments from unstructured collections of photographs. In essence, it can take hundreds of photos of the Eiffel Tower from Flickr and automatically create a detailed 3D model.

Current realism of computer games
As of 2005 we are on the threshold of realism in computer games. It is finally possible to simulate certain aspects of reality in real time and with sufficient precision to declare it an accurate simulation overall.

For example, the Forza Motorsport racing simulation for Xbox is physically realistic. It is mostly on par with reality, even though it's not indistinguishable yet. To achieve this, programmers from Microsoft Game Studios take into account between 3000 and 10000 variables and simulate all aspects of driving, running the simulation at 240 ticks per second. For Race Against Reality Popular Science asked a veteran gamer and a professional race driver to extensively test drive both real cars and their virtual prototypes. The conclusion was that the game simulation is accurate.

Similar level of realism is available for the flight simulators, again from Microsoft. Some simulators are so realistic that pilots are allowed to log the virtual hours just like the real ones.

However, these simulations are not completely realistic yet. There are still things that can be improved though before we have perfect VR.  Graphics aren't perfect yet. One of the bigger problems is lighting and shadowing. To make realistic materials technologies such as RealReflect need to be developed. Sound - there is still no good programmatic sound generation. It's all samples, mostly. Global physics - it's possible to simulate several objects (cars, planes) very accurately, but an all-encompassing simulation is still too complex for the tech we have. Simulation of acceleration, tactile contact and everything else related to physically "being there". AI to make the world come alive

The shader model (introduced in 2002-2005) made possible to move graphics a step up from poligonal textured environments to much more realistic worlds. Games introduced in 2005 simulate realistically such superfluous details as raindrop splashes, smoke clouds (Call of Duty 2), etc. Water shaders and 3D textures further enhance the realism.

The video-realistic graphics based on general-purpose stable rendering systems (i.e. no more custom-made rendering engines for every new project) will come around 2010-2015. The programmatic sound may be delivered somewhere between 2015 and 2025. Global physics may be done sufficiently well around 2015-2020. The realistic simulations of all senses may come somewhere between 2015 and 2025. Sufficiently good non-human and domain specific human AI (i.e. for an NPC that can realistically perform in a narrowly defined context) may come somewhere about 2015-2020. Good human-level AI (in the context of video games it's a companion that you can interact closely for many hours in a variety of situation, including free-form talking) is a more complex problem and will probably not be achieved until the 2030s.

Still, we have already entered the realm of virtual reality. In some aspects, although not in all, virtual environments are already as good as real ones.

Interfaces

 * 1) Currently external stimulation is possible. Large VR gaming stations are being developed . Alternatively a user can wear glasses, headphones, virtual reality gloves. Ultimately this should lead to high-quality retinal projectors (for vision).
 * 2) Progress is being made into direct neural connections. The work is being done mostly in cochlear and retinal implants. Other senses can be controlled too, such as the vestibular system,.
 * 3) Ideally the interface would be a direct brain-computer link. First it will be a connection to the cortex, allowing the computer to "read thoughts" and send information directly to the mind. Eventually all brain will become random-access memory, with nanodevices able to control each and every neuron.

Nanomedical Virtual Reality
From Nanotech.biz:

''Question 5: Ray Kurzweil has proposed having billions of nanorobots positioned in our brains, in order to create full-immersion virtual reality. Do you think that such a scenario will ever be feasible?''

 * Yes of course. I first described the foundational concepts necessary for this in Nanomedicine, Vol. I (1999), including noninvasive neuroelectric monitoring (i.e., nanorobots monitoring neuroelectric signal traffic without being resident inside the neuron cell body, using >5 different methods), neural macrosensing (i.e., nanorobots eavesdropping on the body’s sensory traffic, including auditory and optic nerve taps), modification of natural cellular message traffic by nanorobots stationed nearby (including signal amplification, suppression, replacement, and linkage of previously disparate neural signal sources), inmessaging from neurons (nanorobots receiving signals from the neural traffic), outmessaging to neurons (nanorobots inserting signals into the neural traffic), direct stimulation of somesthetic, kinesthetic, auditory, gustatory, auditory, and ocular sensory nerves (including ganglionic stimulation and direct photoreceptor stimulation) by nanorobots, and the many neuron biocompatibility issues related to nanorobots in the brain, with special attention to the blood-brain barrier.

 * The key issue for enabling full-immersion reality is obtaining the necessary bandwidth inside the body, which should be available using the in vivo fiber network I first proposed in Nanomedicine, Vol. I (1999). Such a network can handle 1018 bits/sec of data traffic, capacious enough for real-time brain-state monitoring.  The fiber network has a 30 cm3 volume and generates 4-6 watts waste heat, both small enough for safe installation in a 1400 cm3 25-watt human brain.  Signals travel at most a few meters at nearly the speed of light, so transit time from signal origination at neuron sites inside the brain to the external computer system mediating the upload are ~0.00001 millisec which is considerably less than the minimum ~5 millisec neuron discharge cycle time.  Neuron-monitoring chemical sensors located on average ~2 microns apart can capture relevant chemical events occurring within a ~5 millisec time window, since this is the approximate diffusion time for, say, a small neuropeptide across a 2-micron distance.  Thus human brain state monitoring can probably be “instantaneous”, at least on the timescale of human neural response, in the sense of “nothing of significance was missed.”

 * I believe Ray was relying upon these earlier analyses, among others, when making his proposals.

Completeness and complexity of simulation
Currently most games (or professional simulations) take into account only a few aspects of reality. A car racing game has a detailed simulation of the engine, tires, tracktion, drag, etc., but "pedestrians" are glued to the ground, all other objects, e.g. planes, are moving on a predetermined path, etc. A real time strategy or tycoon game simulates the social dynamics and resource processing to some extent, but ignores the physics of individual characters moving around.

But the big trend is that the engines all games use become more and more similar. Nowadays a strategy and a shooter game can use the same graphics engine, the same physics engine (such as Havoc 2) and look and feel rather similar (compare it with Dune 2 vs. Doom 2). John Carmack believes that universal engines will emerge around 2010-2015 and he will probably program only two more generations of custom game engines.

Of course, as long as content creation and programming are expensive, the games will avoid simulating parts unnecessary for the core gameplay. But the inevitable emergence of a common engine base will make it possible to integrate different games in one world and eventually it will be done. A crude example of that is the Second Life game where the complexity is not limited, at least in principle. There are also more and more games that use completeness as a selling point, such as GTA series and upcoming Spore from Will Wright.

The increased completeness will eventually make the virtual world real. In that virtual reality a "player" will be able to race, shoot, socialise, control armies, play with "physically real" objects and do a very large subset of what is possible in reality.

Uses of Virtual reality

 * tourism
 * entertainment, emerging from FPS games on one end and interactive attractions at Disneyland on the other.
 * social interaction, emerging from MMORPG and from first feeble attempts at online virtual conferences.

Social issues
Computer and video games are relatively non-controversial (bar some violent games). Virtual reality hardware, while clumsy and awkward, is accepted too. While full-scale VR a la Matrix, if implemented today, would be scary to most people, gradual development will probably be accepted easily. For example, Sony has discussed future neural interfaces several times.

 * A World of Warcraft World - a good description of the MMORPG-related trends for the VR. Of course, it suffers horribly from the Single factor problem.

Technological development

 * 2010-2015: video-realistic graphics based on general-purpose stable rendering systems.
 * 2015-2020: integrated persistent worlds.
 * 2015-2020: global physics with unlimited world complexity and simulation of most physical aspects.
 * 2015-2020: sufficiently good non-human and domain specific human AI.
 * 2015-2025: programmatic sound. Most aspects of reality can be simulated sufficiently well.
 * 2015-2025: realistic simulations of all senses (through brain-computer interface).
 * 2030+ : good human-level artificial intelligence.
 * 2045+ : uploading and life in virtual reality.

Japanese NISTEP forecast, 2001
The NISTEP report lists the following predictions related to virtual reality:
 * 2010: Widespread use of electronic travel pamphlets and product catalogs that use virtual reality.
 * 2012: Emergence of electronic media that stimulate the pleasure center in the brain, causing a social problem similar to narcotic drugs. (this isn't VR per se, but similar technologies will be used)
 * 2015: Widespread use of multimedia-based virtual leisure, leading to a decline in the development of ecosystem-threatening resorts.
 * 2015: Sales from on-line shopping through a digital network (shopping through virtual malls) account for more than 50% of total sales by retail shops.

Description
The use of VR in the period covered by NISTEP forecast (2010–2015) will probably include video-realistic virtual worlds with limited physical and AI realism delivered through light, comfortable high-quality VR goggles and possibly some primitive neural interfaces (may be for motor control or mood enhancement). BTW, this will be the PlayStation 5 era.

By 2025-2030 both the simulation and interface technologies will likely advance to a stage sufficient for a perfect Matrix-like simulation indistinguishable from reality, but the virtual avatar will still be controlled by the actual human brain. While the Matrix scenario of naked immobile humans immersed in a nutrient medium and immersed in a virtual reality permanently is possible, it is likely that most people will still spend much of their time in physical reality.

title: Future/Virtual Reality


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Future/Biotechnology

Medicine/Psychology

 * Customization of foods to treat specific medical conditions.
 * Identification of the genetic links of most diseases.
 * Understanding of the biochemical mechanisms and environmental interactions of most diseases.
 * Widespread use of genetic screening.
 * Enhancement of physical and mental abilities through genetic engineering, beyond simply curing diseases disease.
 * Full personal medical records stored on smart card. Very comprehensive records, complete with genome, life history, interview recordings, videos of operations...
 * Increased life span and quality of life. More people will live into their 80s in good health.
 * Home (health) diagnostic systems, daily/real time check-up via radio. Home AI based elderly and handicapped support devices
 * (Nanotechnology) Devices roaming within blood vessels under own power, diagnosing and fixing some problems. timescale?  Precedents?
 * A cure for cancer
 * Artificial organs: ears, eyes, legs, lungs, hearts, pancreas, livers, kidneys, blood, etc...
 * Advanced prosthetics: legs, arms, hands, etc... Biological/Technological hybrids

Psychology

 * Understanding of the genetic, chemical and physiological foundations of human behaviour. Better control and treatment of mental disorders.
 * The ability to influence emotions, learning, senses, memory and other psychological phenomena through brain and mind manipulation.

Materials

 * Engineered organisms that produce commodities, medicines and complex chemicals, or handle waste disposal, agricultural processing and environmental management.

Environment

 * Effective management of the organic environment. We will know the genomes of most plant and animal groups. We will be able to manage gene pools effectively, and also control their populations. (what does this mean?)
 * Widespread genetic intervention programs for animals and plants. Genetic enhancement techniques will be applied to wild and domestic organisms, including pets.
 * Many new forms of genetically-engineered plants and animals.

Human Augmentation

 * Sensors directly connected to the human nervous system. Artificial nerves, artificial senses linked directly to the brain.
 * Direct stimulation of the pleasure centers of the brain.
 * Artificial ears, eyes, legs, lungs, hearts, pancreas, liver, kidneys, blood - augmented in various ways, e.g. liver to better metabolise Alcohol (more Alcohol Dehydrogenase), for welders, eyes incorporating higher levels of photo-sensitive UV filter chromophores.
 * Biomanufacturing is biotechnology that makes things. Biological things, such as skin, organs in the body, or even beer. And mechanical things, such as batteries. There are already limited examples of both.
 * A DNA Synthesizer can create NEW DNA.

Scientific Access: There is a movement right now to make Biotechnology publications more "open."

 * BioMed Central is tracking open access Bio research journals.
 * PLoS - Public Library of Science publishing open access Bio research

Manufacturing: There is some limited biomanufacturing:

 * Technology Review: Virus-assembled cobalt oxide Batteries
 * "stores nearly three times as much energy as those in today's lithium-ion batteries"
 * in Russian, with more images & diagrams
 * The method seems to use M13 viruses  primarily for scaffolding or glue. Desired material sticks to sticky points on the viruses. Then the viruses stick to something else (some polymer, according to this story,) in a pattern that is good for making batteries.
 * For more information on the basic technique, see Science & Technology: Wired on the Nanoscale.

Expectations.

There are arguments (between Drexler, and a biologist; need link) about whether people will make nanotechnology that beats biology. Consider the wheel, which was not produced in nature. Consider the eye, that we don't yet meet.

There are calls for open source biotechnology:
 * News in Science: Push to free up biotech tools for all

Amateur biotechnology seems plausible, and there appears to be a will:
 * DNA Hack
 * DNA seen through the eyes of a coder
 * CAMBIA project—the CAMBIA project will sell you TransBactor strains & vectors for $20
 * you use it to transfer genes to a plant cell, though I don't know what other equipment is required.
 * Open Source Biology and it's Impact on Industry
 * "Considerable information is already available on how to manipulate and analyze DNA in the kitchen. A recent Scientific American Amateur Scientist column provided instructions for amplifying DNA through the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and a previous column dealt with analyzing DNA samples on homemade electrophoresis equipment. The discussion was immediately picked up in a slashdot.org thread where participants provided tips for improving the yield of the PCR process."
 * "It is already possible to synthesize sufficient DNA to build a bacterial genome from scratch in a few weeks using chemical means."

One very interesting idea, is: Remote Biology Labs.

The paper describes the educational and experimental opportunities that are available when you have a fully automated (robotic) biology lab that people can use over the Internet. A 13 year old could remotely issue the commands to perform some sort of genetic "Hello World" experiment.

One advantage is that conceivably, regulators can observe all the experiments that take place, and limit the possibilities of harmful contagion by limiting physical access to and from the lab.

The paper notes that with time, biology labs will probably be refined and miniaturized.

(See also: Rainbow's End, which features a lab just like this. A major effort is undertaken, to subvert a lab.)

Notes:

Some people expect that "Considerable information is already available on how to manipulate and analyze DNA in the kitchen. A recent Scientific American Amateur Scientist column provided instructions for amplifying DNA through the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and a previous column dealt with analyzing DNA samples on homemade electrophoresis equipment. The discussion was immediately picked up in a slashdot.org thread where participants provided tips for improving the yield of the PCR process." "It is already possible to synthesize sufficient DNA to build a bacterial genome from scratch in a few weeks using chemical means." Open Source Biology and it's Impact on Industry by Rob Carlson, in 2001
 * BioEngineering
 * Claims
 * BioTech Moores Law
 * in detail
 * BioTechnology is now an Information Technology
 * the cost of sequencing DNA into GCAT falls every year
 * sharing equipment, renting equipment, renting labs
 * URL: http://www.shirky.com/writings/biotech_moore.html
 * Points of Evidence
 * "Celera," a single lab, sequenced DNA fast enough to challenge government labs, simply by buying next-generation sequencing equipment.
 * Where are we at?
 * Advocacy for/Imagination of OpenSource genetics
 * News in Science: Push to free up biotech tools for all
 * BioMed Central is tracking open access Bio research journals.
 * PLoS - Public Library of Science publishing open access Bio research
 * How much does the relevant lab equipment and materials cost?
 * $20 per TransBactor strain or vector (CAMBIA project)
 * http://www.bioforge.net/forge/entry.jspa?externalID=21&categoryID=2
 * bacterial genome, from scratch, in a few weeks, using chemical means
 * Bioterrorism is a very real possibility.
 * What has it cost in the past?
 * Where will we likely be?
 * What does it take, today, to genetically engineer, (say,) a virus?
 * What base materials?
 * What lab equipment?
 * What knowledge is required?
 * Relevant Links?
 * Remote Biology Labs—describes the present, and outlines a future, for home manufacturing; recommends robotic remote biology labs for educational use in the near to mid-term future
 * Technology Review: The Knowledge—on Russian progress (still unsurpassed), efforts to weaponize biotechnology; see also: Assessing the Threat—which emphasises that only states could do this, today
 * DNA seen through the eyes of a coder—this is an example of hobbyist analysis of biotechnology; it's rudimentary, but you can see that the will is there

Virus assembly

 * http://www.technologyreview.com/BizTech/wtr_16673,296,p1.html better images (RUS) - viruses can be used to create better lithium-ion batteries.
 * http://www.pnl.gov/news/release.asp?id=171—bacteria to create wires

Near-term gene therapies
There are many potential markets for advanced gene therapies and treatment of diseases is just a small subset. Other potential uses include:
 * therapy that turns hair growth back on in balding men
 * a therapy that can turn menstruation on and off without menopause
 * a therapy for breast growth, making implants obsolete
 * for adding muscle mass without working out
 * for dissolving unwanted fat tissues
 * and, of course, the 'fountain of youth' itself for the disease of old age

Timeline
Genetic engineering extra eyes, fur or tentacles? Neat. Genetic engineering. ''By, say, 2020 we (at least the early adopters, not luddites) will be controlling our metabolism artificially, using a combination of implanted automatic smart drug-release devices and genetic therapies. There will be a few cases when humans will be enhanced significantly changing their genetic code, when this can be done in a very safe manner and without side effects (this might come from one of the sports modifications). The parents will have great freedom in defining the DNA code of their kids to get rid of all bad stuff and ensure that good stuff is there, but no fins or fur yet. We will also have many artificial parts and will spend a lot of time in virtual worlds.''
 * First (now-2015) we will see more smart drugs, i.e. drugs increasingly designed based on understanding on how genes and proteins work and not just random hit-and-miss experiments with organic molecules. It will become increasingly possible to regulate the human metabolism using the THIRD way (i.e. not neural or hormonal, but artificial drug-induced way). Things like Viagra, working drugs for losing (not gaining) weight, nootropic drugs, etc.
 * Then (2015-2025) we are going to see first health-related genetic modifications. As e.g. Naam describes in his book, there are several ways to modify ourselves - inject the protein (drug - see above), add the DNA into the cell (noninsertional vectors) or into the nucleus (insertional). By that time we will strongly feel the fallout from the Human Genome project, understanding a significant part of the complex genetic chemistry. First we are going to change the DNA to fix the health defects, removing bad genes or fixing them.
 * At the same time we will have genetic treatments in competitive sport (Olympics) to enhance the strength, endurance, etc. Some say that first such treatments are already being used. Each next Olympics will have more and more and by 2016 a very large portion of athletes will be using some form of genetic enhancement.
 * By that time (mid-2010s) we will have some cyborgisation in healthy humans going on. Chips for interacting with the electronic environment, some enhanced senses (e.g. cochlear implants for healthy people). Enhancement surgery will be growing in popularity (things like LASIK, muscle surgery, lots of cosmetic surgery and a bit more advanced stuff). The "traditional" body modification techniques will be gradually improving. Everything that is cool today will be already passe and retro. Hard to predict these things, since they are irrational and random to a large extent like all fashion is. But one may speculate about subdermal displays, limited neuro-electronic connectivity (i.e. "implanted remotes"). Disabled people will have their artificial hands, legs, eyes and stuff in increasing numbers. But we still won't see genetically modified people with tentacles, except in a few freaks, like the leet body modders today (however, even those would probably opt for surgery + drugs, not full-scale GE).
 * Starting from about 2015 we will spend more and more time in both virtual and augmented reality. We will be more and more comfortable with modifying our appearance in arbitrary ways, spending time in animal bodies (even though only virtually), etc.
 * Around 2020-2025 we will see the spread of biotechnologies to the general population. We will also have desktop fabrication labs by then (and robots), some pretty useful (but not fully mature) nanotech (to compliment the biotech that we are talking about). We will have some good AI (but not human-level), so a lot of R&D will be possible to do using existing software. Software methodologies will be more advanced than today, so ordinary people will be able to get digital designs for a bio-lab, assemble it using their (may be not personally owned) desktop fab lab, get the information databases with genetic and other biological information and synthesise the DNA.
 * There are likely to be some regulatory issues by than. Both scaremongers and responsible scientists/politicians will demand some control mechanisms and some will definitely be established, but we can also expect bio-hackers (and pirates) to emerge. There will obviously be a gradient - if some people are doing legit body-modifications (like people in tattoo/piercing parlors today), they can add a bit of illicit modifications, provide access to illegal drugs (controlled substances) without prescriptions (like offshore Internet pharmacies today), etc. This may end up looking a little bit like the cyberpunk predictions (e.g. traditional Gibsonesque cyberpunk).
 * In 2025-2030 people will start to notice the exponential technological growth. Kids born in 2010 will be getting through their teenage phase (modified using mind-enhancing drugs, but not enough to turn them into obedient zombies). They will probably be the first to use the technology in radical ways. The transplantation industry would be mature by that time, with millions of transplantations performed every year - cloned parts, xenotransplants, artificial organs, etc. Stem cells would also be used to grow new organs (in vitro and in vivo). So it would be quite easy to do heavy cyborg and biological body-mods with little risk (and almost zero risk of serious complications that can't be fixed). As much as I am uncomfortable with that (today), more and more people will be experimenting with heavily modified bodies. Genetic engineering will be used in conjunction with surgery. We will also have the ability to direct body reconstruction - first selective apoptosis, then generation of stem cells and regrowth of the organs/tissues. This will obviously first be used for corrections, but eventually for rebuilding the body for other reasons.
 * By that time technologies for genetic engineering will be widespread and accessible. Software products would exist (not in the form of products, but downloadable routines, AI modules) that can be used easily. By 2030 most people will have the ability to design new organisms from scratch and change their own bodies at will. My imagination is betraying me a bit, but when walking (or otherwise moving) on the street (or the future analogue of it) you will see people of different colours (including pink, orange and striped yellow-green), people with fur, people with animated skin, people with various additional parts (combs, spikes, etc.) added for aesthetic reasons, people with various face adjustments ("unnatural" eyes, nose, lips, teeth, etc.), people with parts of them resembling animal parts (feline eyes, etc.).
 * By that time the society will likely change enough to make these things not only more acceptable, but in a sense expected. Mind-enhancement techniques, significant social changes will mean that there won't be conservative job-places that don't let you come to work with wings and horns. Many people will not be working in the traditional sense, but living life in more creative ways, while the society/nature supplies them with necessities.
 * The precise nature of the future society in regards to the look of its members will depend on an unpredictable factor - the relative success of different development approaches. It is clear that virtual reality, cyborgisation and genetic engineering will all provide almost unlimited possibilities for human expression. But which of the three methods will be more populat (at certain point) is hard to predict, because it depends on which one will be more advanced, more efficient, safer, cheaper, more available, easier to use, etc. It is likely that all methods will complement each other to some extent, but personally I am not ready to predict with certainty whether the society of 2030 will consist mostly of people inhabiting VR worlds, robots walking the streets or mutated chimeras flying and swimming around...

Predictions by Brian Wang:
 * 2010-2014 - Customized cells
 * 2011-2016 - 20%+ efficient genetically engineered algae ponds to generate hydrogen
 * 2015-2025 - Almost all fish (for food) comes from massive ocean ranches (over 100 ranches, each larger than a cubic mile in area)
 * 2010-2020 - Future Crime: Genetic modification of baby DNA to pass false paternity lawsuit

title: Future/Biotechnology


text:
Talk:Organic Chemistry/Alkenes

=Dehalogenation of vicinal dibromides= Can anyone explain a bit of the reaction mechanism here? From a student's perspective, a few lines about the reaction mechanism makes a process like this far easier to remember. If I can find a good source, I'll do it myself sometime soon. Also, does this only work with bromides? We're calling it dehalogenation, but if it only works with vicinal dibromides, it'd probably be more clear to call it debromination, as many others do. Arts n Sci (talk) 21:22, 27 April 2009 (UTC)

=Cahn-Ingold-Prelog naming of isomers=

Uh, E is same side and Z is opposite.

 * Uh, no: E is short for 'entgegen' which any German will tell you means 'opposite' and 'Zusamen' means 'together'. See E-Z_notation

 * Thanks for taking an interest. Glad it's educational! Ewen (talk) 22:37, 17 March 2008 (UTC)

=Stuff Removed= I've removed the following reactions: Corey-House reaction (this is used in the synthesis of Alkanes, not Alkenes. Catalytic Dehydrogenation to produce Alkenes (this is an industrial procedure and not used in labs). -- Pete 15:31, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

 * Hi Pete

 * (you're up early today!)

 * I think the more important industrial reactions should have a place in the book. Certainly courses such as A-level and the IB include some industrial syntheses as well as lab preparations.

 * I'm one for lumping everything in once place, as you've probably noticed. I've moved the EZ notes from Chirality and left only a brief mention there. Anything extra to the EZ notes you put under alkenes I've tried to merge there. Is that OK? Ewen 16:03, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

 * Yeah, that's all fine. Oh, I just looked at it closer. I didn't realize what Corey-House was. That's just coupling of a Gilman reagent with an alkyl halide, right? I've never heard it called that. That belongs in haloalkanes anyway since it goes with the Gilman reagent synthesis. As for catalytic dehydrogenation, I'll add it back. You're right, it should be there. -- Pete 02:57, 27 November 2006 (UTC)

Anti markonikov rule,why the HCl & HI are not follow the rule ?

Biology
Cell membrane 41.210.159.71 (discuss) 19:59, 2 May 2024 (UTC)

title: Talk:Organic Chemistry/Alkenes


text:
Future/Education

Education will play a bigger role in our lives in the future. Lifelong education will spread, ICT will be used more in education than in industry and many people will be self-educating using online resources. Also many new jobs are likely to require better education.

Miscellaneous Scenarios
Here are some scenarios for the mid-range future of education (2015–2020):

 * Schools Go High-Tech. Schools use laptops, computers, as learning aids for students in (more or less) recognizably traditional school environments. Not much change, they're just computers everywhere.
 * Public School System collapses (more or less,) and parents enroll their children in Free Schools, self-directed schools (or home school) environments.
 * Internet Education, Apprenticeship—Students teach themselves what they need to know primarily by way of Internet. They prove themselves and work jobs by way of Internet.
 * Adults join with Students—Rainbow's End, by Vernor Vinge, explores the idea: If technology accelerates quickly enough, and if youth are the economic targets of adult retraining, why not just merge adult retraining classes and high school classes?

Links

 * Edit Hint: Please say something about more about what is at these links, especially the Russion ones JC 17:19, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

 * Advanced Technologies for Education and Training, particularly the 85-page PDF report
 * Robotic teachers, robotic teachers 2 (in Russian)
 * Virtual teachers virtual teachers 2 (in Russian)
 * Someone who is very enthusiastic about UnSchooling has dropped off a number of links

Reports

 * Reports on the future of educational technology from JISC. See also gUniversities in the Future foresight report.
 * UK Foresight division published "Universities of the future", a collection of decent forecasts that can be ordered from their site.

Fiction

 * Synthetic Serendipity—by Vernor Vinge—takes place in and around a school ~2020-2030; see Rainbow's End for more on the school of the 2020's
 * Anda's Game—by Cory Doctorow—only tangentially about school, but it does shed light on the social context for schools in the present through (say) 2015.

The Public School System
The public school systems around the world propagate their rather liberal agenda to people ages 4–22. They attempt to teach their children that their parents are "wrong" and that the government is questionable. Spiritualism is stripped from the young open-minded students and is treated like an "extracurricular hobby." The propaganda is subtle in Kindergarten and becomes increasingly overt until the students reach the twelfth grade. Teachers of the public school system constantly push their oppressed students into college or university, although some students rather live on welfare or have a blue collar job than graduate from a post-secondary institution.

Although education is slowly becoming a frivolous luxury for the wealthy in the 21st century and beyond, many teachers and school counsellors still pressure young people to enroll in university and to become a chartered member of the Establishment—a term for those with a degree or certificate that enables their holders access to high-paying jobs—wearing a suit and tie, making at least forty thousand dollars per annum, while owning a home in the suburbs.

Computers
As the current trend in education proves, most schools are obtaining better and better technological equipment, mainly in the use of computers and electronic media. This trend will continue in the foreseeable future, as schools find better quality items to be more and more important in their curricula. The computers in the schools' media centers, for example, will be in greater and greater demand as teachers demand that work be done online. In addition, internet and computer usage will continue to increase, for the following reasons among others:

 * 1) Wikipedia and its sister projects will become more and more influential. Just a look at the exponential growth of all MediaWiki projects, and you can see why it is rapidly gaining influence in the educational system.
 * 2) Teachers are requiring students to turn in their essays and papers to online checking sites such as Turnitin.com, which checks for any instances of a student's copying text from other online sites into their works. As Turnitin and its derivatives become more and more widely accepted, its use will continue to increase and pervade all written assignments.
 * 3) As more and more assignments are transferred from paper-borne to electronic-borne, the students' need for computers will become ever more pressing.
 * 4) More students will become accustomed to such places as Myspace.com, which allows open flow of information and chat among "friends".
 * 5) Email becomes a means of storing homework and other information, and will therefore result in a greater need to use computers.
 * 6) The internet itself is expanding almost exponentially, and as thus the quality and amount of information on it will continue to increase, resulting in more students' using them.
 * 7) Online reference study guides such as cliffsnotes.com and sparknotes.com, which cover nearly every subject in a school's curricula, become more and more effective in their coverage of material learned in the classroom, leading to more reliability and therefore dependence by the student on this reference.

Online Education
This too is not new. Many grade levels' curricula can now be taught online, though this is extremely disorganized except for sites such as Wikipedia and Sparknotes. The organization of this database will continue to improve. Meanwhile, some advertisers and entrepreneurs are already stressing the value of online education—in some cases, a college degree can be granted through online study. In the future, this will continue to develop.

In today's educational system, a remarkable inefficiency is immediately apparent. Teachers must teach the same material four to eight times in one day (depending on class period length) per one year, year after year, in all the classrooms teaching a particular material, in all classrooms teaching any material, in all the schools in the nation, and all nations in the world. The amount of labor that would be saved by introducing a standard education would be enormous, freeing all these teachers to do professor-level teaching or postgraduate-level work.

Drawbacks
True, online education does have its drawbacks. One, it cannot be applied to only partially disciplined children who have not become accustomed to endlessly staring at a computer screen. This is a major difficulty for students grade three and under, and a less problematic issue up to fifth grade, ceasing afterward.

One major aspect in this regard is the social environment in which the children will be raised. Over the course of the next generation, an entire flip may occur in which studying by computer/internet will become increasingly more prevalent and a much more common sight. For these children who will grow up in the decades to come, such an environment will serve to propel them into the rigorous form of study that online education involves.

Discipline of young children is particularly hard to tackle. One way that this issue can be negated is the formation of computer-lab-classes, in which a single instructor can act as an overseer for hundreds of students working in the one lab. The more efficient way is to introduce a particular type of program that will start off easy to learn—seemingly like an educational game—and which gradually steeps its pupils into harder and less entertaining studies. For the purposes of this article, then, we will call that program and associated methods as the Fountain of Knowledge.

Standardized Testing
Without teachers and grades, the Fountain of Knowledge program will need a method of ensuring that students actually learn. Aside from a social change in the coming generation that will shift toward veneration of those who know material (as evidenced in honor for today's Doctors of Philosophy and Doctors of Medicine). This will be accomplished with a standardized test, akin to that currently espoused by the College Board (ACT, AP, SAT, SAT 2). The new standardized test would include every subject, each attached to a course based from the Fountain of Knowledge program. These tests would be administered regularly—once a week—and change problems each time.

In preparation for such standardized tests, students would "cram" or study very quickly in depth but in rather short-term memory. Therefore, while they will be able to ace the topics one after another (these tests do not have to be taken simultaneously; they can be taken as the student finds him/herself prepared for it), they will very likely forget this material.

Therefore, the standardized tests would have to be renewed annually until the person enters society by performing a set function (such as acting as a physician for medicine school, or performing basic laboratory research for biology school). In addition, the Fountain of Knowledge program's reliance on theoretics and mnemonics over rote memorization will also help to this regard.

Some believe that the situation is not as bad as it seems; they argue that as students become more focused on a particular subject area that interest them, and as they also have less homework to do and less material to study, that they will actually devote themselves to studying what they must and therefore be less likely to forget their curricula. This premise leads to the next step, the demise of the liberal arts.

Demise of Liberal Arts
Starting as early as the Renaissance, schools and universities have increasingly emphasized multidisciplinary education. Must of this curricula has nothing to do with one's career. While one might of course argue that a youngster would not know so early in life what one would wish to do for a living, and bring proof of this claim with the countless students who have started on one topic and then veered off on something entirely, one can also postulate that this change is due exactly to the liberal arts education given. In other words, without the liberal arts, students would have found what they are looking for. It is not that the liberal arts lets the student discover his/her heart's desire, but that it alters that desire totally.

This challenge to the standard concept of liberal arts education will eventually lead to its demise. This will become more and more predominant in the future, as a basic education in anything at all becomes increasingly useless as knowledge in a specific, high-level subject area becomes more and more valued by contrast. The other material—for example, learning calculus, history, and chemistry when one is set to become a doctor—will be struck off the curricula.

This change will come as a result of the Fountain of Knowledge program. With students able to choose any subject at will, they will also be able to decide on what their future career will be and therefore concentrate on its prerequisites rather than on anything else. Even though some may value breadth of education, in the future this will become less and less practical.

Advent of Robotics
Gradually, sometime between 2020 and 2040, robotics will become a definite part of our lives. Not only in everyday life, but in what work the members of the Establishment must do (i.e. those who "have an education"). This change means that much of what he is students once needed to learn no longer needs to be taught, except to a couple of Stewards should either the system fail/crash or if there is a debate on the nature of that knowledge (i.e. mathematical proofs, advancement of theoretics, etc.). The rest will have considerably less of the boring material to learn, allowing them to progress to harder, even more challenging but nevertheless more necessary material. All other functions will be handled by machine.

Demise of Education
Gradually, the increased influence of robotics and computers in everyday life will result in the eradication of much of education. Currently, ear jewels such as the telephone service provided by Bluetooth already allow communication between the subvocalizing person and the ear jewel. In addition, work is being performed on an eye jewel which will allow a person to tap into vast amounts of knowledge. With its application into the general populace, standardized testing will become obsolete as it will be impossible to ensure that a test taker not get an unfair advantage from the use of an eye jewel. This eye jewel will gradually supplant formal education as the next means of garnering knowledge for immediate application. However, the Stewards (as mentioned earlier) will remain the guardians of that knowledge that has not been removed from the standard person's curriculum.

The Human Mind Project
The Human Mind Project forecasts the end of the eye jewel as well, further sealing off education as the means of garnering knowledge is moved to the realm of the thought. Hermes—a nanotechnological fleet of attuned neural interdictors—will be able to immediately, efficiently, and safely alter a person's memory so that what one would normally have to learn through education would be directly present just through expressing the will to access such data.

The Human Mind Project is, in a sense, the millennium catalyst. When informatics becomes so widespread and easily accessible, people will be able to work together on formulating a thought. Therefore, theories and applications not otherwise possible will be achieved at last. Who knows what it may result in? The singularity is one possible result, after which education may finally be laid to rest in peace.

title: Future/Education