text:
Future/End of Civilization

The end of civilization or the end of the world are phrases used in reference to human extinction scenarios, doomsday events, and related hazards which occur on a global scale. These are risks that would imperil humankind as a whole and/or have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization. The term existential risk is sometimes used in this context.

The prediction of future events is known as futures studies.

Types of risks
Various risks exist for mankind and civilization, but not all risks are equal. Risks can be roughly categorized into six types based on the scope of the risk (Personal, Regional, Global) and the intensity of the risk (Endurable or Terminal).

The risks discussed in this article are those in the Global-Terminal category. This type of risk is one where an adverse outcome would either annihilate intelligent life, or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.

Future scenarios
There are many scenarios that have been suggested that could happen in the future. Some are certain to happen and will almost certainly end humanity, but will only happen on a very long timescale. Others are likely to happen on a shorter timescale, but will probably not completely destroy civilization. Still others are extremely unlikely, and may even be impossible. For example, Nick Bostrom writes [2]:

Some foreseen hazards (hence not members of the current category) which have been excluded from the list of bangs on grounds that they seem too unlikely to cause a global terminal disaster are: solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, supervolcanos, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility, and various religious doomsday scenarios. See also: Societal collapse

Space
It is certain that events in space will cause life on Earth to come to an end. The certain events, however, will happen at an extremely long timescale measured in billions of years. Projections indicate that the Andromeda Galaxy is on a collision course with the Milky Way. Impact is predicted in about 3 billion years, and so Andromeda will approach at an average speed of about 140 kilometres (87 miles) per second; the two galaxies will probably merge to form a giant elliptical. This merging could eject the solar system in a more eccentric orbit[citation needed] and an unwanted position in the merged galaxy causing our planet to become uninhabitable (an actual collision is unnecessary)[citation needed]. In about 5 billion years, stellar evolution predicts our sun will exhaust its core hydrogen and become a red giant. In so doing, it will become thousands of times more luminous.[3] Even in its current phase of stellar evolution, the sun is increasing in luminosity (at a very slow rate). Many scientists predict that in fewer than one billion years, the runaway greenhouse effect will make Earth unsuitable for life.

On an even longer time scale, the universe may come to an end. The current age of the universe is estimated as being 13.7 billion years. There are several competing theories as to the nature of our universe and how it will end, but in all cases, there will be no life possible. These scenarios take place on a considerably longer timescale than the expanding of the sun.

Meteorite impact
In the history of the Earth, it is widely accepted that several large meteorites have hit Earth. The Cretaceous-Tertiary asteroid, for example, is theorized to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. If such an object struck the Earth it could have a serious impact on civilization. It's even possible that humanity would be completely destroyed: for this, the asteroid would need to be at least 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter, but probably between 3–10 km (2–6 miles) [4]. Asteroids with a 1 km diameter impact the Earth every 0.5 million years [4] on average. Larger asteroids are more rare. The last large (>10 km) impact happened 65 million years ago. So-called Near-Earth asteroids are regularly being observed.

Some scientists believe there are patterns in the amount of meteorites hitting Earth. An interesting explanation of such a pattern is given by the hypothetical star Nemesis. This hypothesis states that a star named Nemesis regularly passes through a denser part of the Oort cloud, causing meteorite rains to collide onto Earth. However, the very existence of this pattern is not widely accepted, and the existence of the Nemesis star is highly controversial.

A star passage that will cause an increase of meteorites is the arrival of a star called Gliese 710. This star is probably moving on a collision course with the Solar System and will likely be at a distance 1.1 light years from the Sun in 1.4 million years. Some models predict that this will send large amounts of comets from the Oort cloud to the Earth.[5] Other models, such as the one by García-Sánchez, predict an increase of only 5%.

Less likely cosmic threats
A number of other scenarios have been suggested. A Black Hole could enter the solar system. If this happened, the result would be catastrophic. Most people would be killed by tidal waves miles high, and those who weren't would be sucked into the hole when it became close enough. Another threat might come from Gamma ray bursts; some scientists believe this may have caused mass extinction 450 million years ago. If one close enough came, they would melt the human momocules. Both are very unlikely. Still others see Extraterrestrial life as a possible threat to mankind ; although alien life has never been found, scientists such as Carl Sagan have postulated that the existence of extraterrestrial life is very likely. Even NASA sterilizes items returning from space to kill any potential extraterrestrial life forms that might threaten humanity, like viruses. Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.

Earth
In the history of the Earth, many ice ages have occurred. More ice ages will almost certainly come at an interval of 40,000–100,000 years. This would have a serious impact on civilization as we know it today, because vast areas of land (mainly in North-America and Europe) could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but with possible loss of humidity/water.

A less predictable scenario is a global pandemic. For example, if HIV mutates and becomes as transmissible as the common cold, the consequences would be disastrous, but probably not fatal to the human species,[10] as some people are immune to HIV.[11] This particular scenario would also contradict the observable tendency for pathogens to become less fatal over time as a natural function of biological pressure.

The coastal areas of the entire world could be flooded in case of the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet [12]. While none of these scenarios could possibly destroy humanity completely, they could regionally threaten civilization as we know it.

When the supervolcano at Yellowstone last erupted, 600,000 years ago, the magma and ash covered roughly all of the area of North America west of the Mississippi river. Another such eruption could threaten civilization. Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a runaway greenhouse effect, or enough pyroclastic debris and other material may be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a natural nuclear winter, similar to 1816, the Year Without A Summer.

Humanity
Probably the biggest threat for humanity comes from humanity itself. The scenario that has been explored most is a nuclear war or another weapon with similar possibilities. It is difficult to predict whether it would exterminate humanity, but very certainly could alter civilization as we know it, in particular if there was a nuclear winter event.

Another category of disasters are unforeseen consequences of technology. It has been suggested that learning computers take unforeseen actions or that robots would out-compete humanity. Biotechnology could lead to the creation of a pandemic, Nanotechnology could lead to grey goo - in both cases, either deliberately or by accident. [16] It has also been suggested that physical scientists might accidentally create a device that could destroy the earth and the solar system. In string theory, there are some unknown variables. If those turn out to have an unfortunate value, the universe may not be stable and alter completely, destroying everything in it, either at random or by an accidental experiment. This is called Quantum Vacuum Collapse by some. Another kind of accident is the Ice-9 Type Transition, in which our planet including everything on it becomes a strange matter planet in a chain reaction. Some do not view this as a credible scenario.

It has been suggested that runaway global warming might cause the climate on Earth to become like Venus, which would make it uninhabitable. In less extreme scenarios it could cause the end of civilization as we know it.

Other scenarios that have been named are:

Antibiotic resistance. Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.[citation needed] Demography. Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization as we know it. Dysgenics. A lack of natural selection and the tendency of the more intelligent to have fewer children would lower the average health and intelligence enough to lead to an eventual collapse of civilization, associated with controversial eugenics theories.[23] Ecology. Natural resources are used up, or the environment is so damaged through pollution and destruction that civilization fails.[citation needed] Finance. Markets fail worldwide, resulting in economic collapse: mass unemployment, rioting, famine, and death.[citation needed] Infertility. Human fertility continues to decline, eventually ending with no fertile humans left to continue the species.[citation needed] Overpopulation.World population may increase to such an extent in the future that it would lead to lack of space for habitation.[citation needed] Peak oil. Oil runs out before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading to global chaos. Quantum energy. In the search for new quantum particles, scientists accidentally destroy the universe. This, however, is highly unlikely; a Chernobyl style disaster is much more possible.[citation needed] Telomere. Some researchers theorize a tiny loss of telomere length from one generation to the next, mirroring the process of aging in individuals. Over thousands of generations the telomere erodes down to its critical level. Once at the critical level we would expect to see outbreaks of age-related diseases occurring earlier in life and finally a population crash.

Historical scenarios
Every generation has faced its own fears of an unknown future; the historical record of prior end of civilization scenarios is plentiful. Some of these include:

Many fictional (and non-fictional) stories from the era of the Cold War were based on the belief that a nuclear war was inevitable, and that this would result in the destruction of all life on the planet Earth (see World War III for a list) Nostradamus wrote a prediction that a great catastrophe would occur in the seventh month (July, or some argue September, the seventh month of the pre-modern calendar) of the year 1999. Many followers of his writings took this to mean that the end of the world would occur. When the chosen date came and went without incident, translators of his works began revising them with new interpretations of what the prediction actually meant. (Many now believe that this prediction referred to September 11, 2001.) Despite this, some people also believe according to Nostradamus, that the world will end in the year 3797. One leading Nostradamus scholar believes that is the year the Sun will explode as a Red Giant, possibly because of extraterrestrial intervention.[citation needed] The Y2K bug, which was supposed to wreak havoc on computer systems and disrupt life as we know it. It didn't. See also Millennialism. Sir Isaac Newton (1642–1727), who was involved in alchemy and many other things in addition to science and mathematics, studied old texts and surmised that the end of the world would be in 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date on it.[26] Many mistakenly believe that the Maya civilization's long count calendar ends abruptly on 21 December (or 23 December) 2012. This misconception is due to the Maya practice of abbreviating their dates to five decimal places. On monuments where the full date is shown the end of the last creation is said to happen much farther in the future. However the Mayas did believe that there will be a baktun ending in 2012. A baktun marks the end of a 400-year period and was a significant event on the Maya calendar. In the Aztec calendar, 2012 marks the end of a 26,000 year planetary cycle.

title: Future/End of Civilization


text:
Future/Totalitarian State

One of the most often mentioned-upon scenarios (especially by the media and other proponents for free speech) is the possibility that restriction of rights will lead to the formation of more totalitarian states in the future. By totalitarian states, they most often mean states in which the government controls the powers of knowing everything that is going on domestically, and are of unparalleled ability to influence events and society inside their states. To many individuals and to the democratic/republican/federal ideal, this is the bane of modern society. We here analyze the arguments both in favor and against the formation and survival of the totalitarian states of the future.

Arguments For Totalitarian State Viability
Many existing and emerging technologies can be used by the government(s) to enforce totalitarian control over all aspects of human lives. The following are examples of such technologies:

Spying
The US Army is developing a full scale 3D Earth simulator, which will be tapped directly into the "Global Information Grid" which could come to oversee the MESH control grid that will also play a role in tracking. The end result is that they will have a full scale simulation of Earth that will allow them to zoom in toward your home (already possible to an extent through tools such as Google map), and possibly see hidden weapons through your clothing. PrisonPlanet claims that such work could eventually result in governmental control over the Internet (although it seems that so far the states' powers are limited to declaring that certain web pages are off limits for computers inside a country, such as in China). Biometrics like face scanning technology are being developed into some of the ITS cameras; thumb print scanners are being implemented into retail stores and [ retinal scans are now being implemented into grade schools. National ID cards are on the way (such as in China), and they could probably include biometric data. Global ID cards are being developed to set up the global control grid. Current RFID / biochip tracking systems include "Digital Angel" and the DoD's DISA (See video) A future step could be a form of nanotechnology that The Man has titled "NBIC". The goals of NBIC are the rapid evolution of mankind (humans into transhumans into posthumans), super AI and what they have actually titled the "collective society".

Anti-Riot Weaponry
Some states may be massing advanced anti-protest weapons so that they could be able to disperse any crowd. Old technologies were fire hoses, tear gas, batons, shields, stun/sting grenades, rubber bullets and capture nets. New technologies include laser stun rifles, audio cannons, microwave pain beams, magnetosphere guns and more. War has more on this topic.

Links

 * Big Brother takes a controlling interest in chips - a totalitarian scenario presented by Vernor Vinge, developed for his book Rainbows End.
 * Panopticon.

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

title: Future/Totalitarian State


text:
Future/Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is a field that attempts to provide machines with human-like thinking.

History
In 1950s first artificial intelligence laboratories were established at Carnegie-Mellon University, and MIT. Early successes created a sense of optimism and false hopes that some kind of grand unified theory of mind would soon emerge and make general AI possible.

The promises of the artificial intelligence were summed up in the classic 1968 movie 2001: A Space Odyssey featuring artificially intelligent computer HAL 9000.

In 1982 following the recommendations of technology foresight exercises, Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry initiated the Fifth Generation Computer Systems project to develop massively parallel computers that would take computing and AI to a new level.

The United States responded with a DARPA-led project that involved large corporations, such as Kodak and Motorola.

But despite some significant results, the grand promises failed to materialise and the public started to see AI as failing to live up to its potential. This culminated in the "AI winter" of the 1990s, when the term AI itself fell out of favour, funding decreased and the interest in the field temporarily dropped.

Researchers concentrated on more focused goals, such as machine learning, robotics, and computer vision, though research in pure AI continued at reduced levels.

Approaches
Historically there were two main approaches to AI:
 * classical approach (designing the AI), based on symbolic reasoning - a mathematical approach in which ideas and concepts are represented by symbols such as words, phrases or sentences, which are then processed according to the rules of logic.
 * a connectionist approach (letting AI develop), based on artificial neural networks, which imitate the way neurons work, and genetic algorithms, which imitate inheritance and fitness to evolve better solutions to a problem with every generation.

Symbolic reasoning have been successfully used in expert systems and other fields. Neural nets are used in many areas, from computer games to DNA sequencing. But both approaches have severe limitations. A human brain is neither a large inference system, nor a huge homogenous neural net, but rather a collection of specialised modules. The best way to mimic the way humans think appears to be specifically programming a computer to perform individual functions (speech recognition, reconstruction of 3D environments, many domain-specific functions) and then combining them together.

Additional approaches:
 * genetics, evolution
 * Bayesian probability inferencing
 * combinations - i.e.: "evolved (genetic) neural networks that influence probability distributions of formal expert systems"

Current state
By breaking up AI research into more specific problems, such as computer vision, speech recognition and automatic planning, which had more clearly definable goals, scientists managed to create a critical mass of work aimed at solving these individual problems.

Some of the fields, where technology has matured and enabled practical applications, are:
 * speech recognition
 * computer vision
 * text analysis
 * robot control

Some examples of real-world systems based on artificial intelligence are:
 * Intelligence Distribution Agent (IDA), developed for the U.S. Navy, helps assign sailors new jobs at the end of their tours of duty by negotiating with them via email.
 * systems that trade stocks and commodities without human intervention
 * banking software for approving bank loans and detecting credit card fraud (developed by Fair Isaac Corp.)
 * search engines such as Brain Boost (or even Google)
 * Asimo

Ongoing projects
Cyc is a 22 year old project based on symbolic reasoning with the aim of amassing general knowledge and acquiring common sense. Online access to Cyc will be opened in mid-2005. The volume of knowledge it has accumulated makes it able to learn new things by itself. Cyc will converse with Internet users and acquire new knowledge from them.

Mind.Forth—shows thinking by the use of spreading activation

Open Mind and mindpixel are similar projects.

These projects are unlikely to directly lead to the creation of AI, but can be helpful when teaching the artificial intelligence about English language and the human-world domain.

Future prospects
In the next 10 years technologies in narrow fields such as speech recognition will continue to improve and will reach human levels. In 10 years AI will be able to communicate with humans in unstructured English using text or voice, navigate (not perfectly) in an unprepared environment and will have some rudimentary common sense (and domain-specific intelligence).

We will recreate some parts of the human (animal) brain in silicon. The feasibility of this is demonstrated by tentative hippocampus experiments in rats.

There will be an increasing number of practical applications based on digitally recreated aspects human intelligence, such as cognition, perception, rehearsal learning, or learning by repetitive practice.

Timeline:

 * Invention
 * first AI laboratory
 * chess champion
 * speech recognition
 * autonomous humanoid robots
 * Turing test passed

Links

 * Why Artificial General Intelligence may be near - this article describes what kind of work leading in this direction is being being done and what can be done in the future.

title: Future/Artificial Intelligence


text:
Future/User Interface

Increasingly better user interfaces allow us to benefit from the ongoing computer revolution. By 2020 computers as we know them are likely to disappear to be replaced with ubiquous computing.

Output
Computer displays are extremely versatile - they can display static content, can be used for editing it, adding new content, showing text, images and video. There is no end to what can be done with screens, once you have the technology in place.

Screen size
In a sense, the changes screen size form one of the main struggles in the evolution of interfaces. There are two main development directions: The progress in this field is very easy to envision by describing the ultimate goals. The smaller screens need a thin (possibly flexible), low-power, bright high-contrast, high-resolution display - the goal is to have something that looks like paper, but can glow (in low light) too. Currently it's various e-paper technologies, some of which are already used in digital watches and ebook readers.
 * smaller screens for portable devices
 * larger screens for rooms

The larger screens need to be high-resolution, very large and bright. Ultimately they need to be arbitrarily large, light and bright so that you can put them on any surface. Currently this segment is covered by large plasma and LCD displays, as well as projectors. Smart boards are already practical for use in education and business.

Augmented reality
Of course, one way to solve the problem of screen size is abandon the idea of the screen and just project the image to the eye somehow (using glasses with projectors or retinal laser projectors). With augmented reality information can be overlayed on the real world images and the real world can even incorporate parts of the virtual world.

An interface can include both virtual (digital) object and real (physical) ones. It can use a combination of projectors, videosurfaces and wearable displays. Examples: a real book with virtual 3D images, an interface to move real objects such as business cards or texts to computer display (instantly digitizing them) and moving virtual objects out.

3D displays
Ever since Star Wars has first shown the 3D hologram of Princess Leia pleading for help, engineers tried to replicate the technology in real life.

Probably the most impressive attempt so far is the 3D technology from AIST (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan). That technology creates fully 3D images consisting of up to 100 dots in the air. It uses laser induced plasma created in the focal point of focused laser light.

Input
Improvement (or replacement) of the tired workhorses of input — the keyboard and the mouse — is long overdue.

Two technologies that receive most of attention are speech recognition and handwriting recognition.

 * Most displays in the future will be touch sensitive and allow more complex interaction than just point and click FTIR.
 * An interesting concept is touch-based interaction with a physics-based desktop interface.
 * A new and promising field is gesture controls. Using a tracking technology (such as laser tracking ) the computer can see and recognise the gestures that the user makes. This would allow more direct control of the virtual objects than when using a mouse. For example, the user could use both hands and several fingers simulaneously.
 * Microsoft have under development a 3D input technology called 'Touchlight'. Using three cameras it is able to gauge hand position in 3D space, allowing model building using the hands.
 * Equipment similar to existing barcode scanners can track finger tip motion in 3D in 'minority report' fashion. The technique uses a tip tracking mirror pair and a saccade mirror pair - the 'saccade' moves the laser point in a circular fashion, and backscattered light gives an indication of the distance, position and orientation of the target.
 * Eye tracking is another interesting solution, where several cameras track user's eyeballs and translate them into mouse or cursor movements..
 * Commercial grade eye tracking software will soon be integrated into computer games and, according to researchers at Queen's University in Canada, allow programs to respond to people's intentions. That claim is not as fanciful as it may sound.  Eye movement decoding is one of the key elements of the (non computer based) Neuro Linguistic programming (NLP) method of body language reading.

These technologies require algorithms capable of simulating and controlling a more complex model than traditional simple windows/objects-based interfaces. An example of flexibility that comes from sufficiently complex/advanced algorithms is Teddy, a 3D modelling software that even a kid can use after a few minutes of training.

Similar level of flexibility (and naturalness) can be achieved in graph interfaces, making managing data/information/knowledge trivially easy.

Windows Vista
New Microsoft operationg system has added 3D rendering to its interface. A user can scroll through windows with the mouse in 3 dimensions. Its new rendering technology could enable people to create 3D worlds more easily.

Unsorted predictions

 * High quality A3 flat displays - using digital paper.
 * Colour video display with > 2000 x 2000 pixels
 * Large, wall hung high definition colour displays
 * Wide screen (>100 in) with contrast ratio of > 10:1
 * Video walls, including living area use of VR (scenes)
 * Electronic notebook, contrast = paper even after power off
 * Video playback over network at 10 x normal speed
 * Many people sharing a virtual space
 * Positioning sound at any point in space
 * 3D TV without need for special glasses
 * Personal audio-visual interfaces well developed
 * 3D video conferencing
 * Computer link to biological sensory organs
 * Use of cheap holograms to convey 3D images
 * Full integration of processing, audio and video equipment

title: Future/User Interface


text:
Future/Prediction Methods

Prediction methodology is a set of techniques used for forecasting the future.

Futurology used such techniques as linear projections and extrapolations from trends, scenario-building, and what-if stories.

Futures studies, the field that emerged from futurology, has devised additional techniques, including emerging issues analysis, scanning, and layered causal analysis.

The main technique used by technology foresight, the latest prediction methodology, is the Delphi survey and further developed scenario method.

Science fiction authors have made many correct technological predictions, starting with Jules Verne, Herbert Wells and Alexander Belyaev. G. Altshuller has developed TRIZ - a methology of creativity that can also be used for predicting possible technological developments.

Technology Foresight Method
Technology foresight is a prediction methodology for determining the most likely technological developments in the mid-term future. It is defined as "Systematic attempts to observe the longterm future of science, technology, the economy and society, with the aim to identify the emerging technologies that will probably produce the greatest economic and social benefits”.

In technology foresight projects the producers and users of science and technology in the innovation system are brought together to develop a common vision of the future developments. The timeframe of foresight usually ranges between 10 and 30 years. From the timeline given by this method, theorists may craft the rest of society, taking into consideration the tenet that social, political, and economic patterns revolve around technological advancements.

Scanning Method
Environmental scanning is an approach to detecting hidden clues about the future in available information sources. It can be described as the activity of rapidly surveying news media, digesting the literature of science, the literature of popular culture, the literature of just about everything. Environmental Scanning is performed prior to a foresight study and is considered to be a pre-requisite to any futures studies.

The connections between various discoveries that one may scan from one's surroundings may not be particularly obvious. However, to a person versed in scanning, "everything fits". After a while news about technological developments stop being mere curiosities and become the results of particular events and situations that had already occurred.

Extrapolation Method
Trend analysis (trend extrapolation) is a forecasting method based on identifying, based on historical data and observations, an ongoing change. The point of trend analysis is to identify the trend early, while it is still likely to continue in the future.

Quantitative trend analysis deals mostly with data as opposed to information. Statistics pertaining to the subject are gathered and plotted along a time axis to produce a curve, which can be extrapolated into the future. An example of a quantitative trend is Moore's law, improved fuel efficiency of cars, the annual number of transplants and the number of cybernetically enhanced humans.

Of course, the further in time the extrapolation, the greater the uncertainty of the event happening and there is no guarantee that the variable will continue to change the way it did in the past. This kind of trend analysis is normally used to draw attention to the forces that could change the extrapolated pattern. More sophisticated analysis (e.g. time series analysis) can be used to try to reveal different patterns.

Trend analysis can also be used to identify qualitative trends, where the quantitative data cannot be obtained (example: globalisation). Characterising such trends requires creative and systemic thinking and is one of the most challenging aspects of futures research.

Scenario Method
Scenario analysis is one the most popular and widely used method in futures studies and foresighting. The scenario based planning methodology is an analytic framework tool used for ordering one's perceptions about alternate future environments in which today's decisions might play out. Scenario planning is NOT a predictive mechanism, but a way to manage uncertainty today.

Scenario analysis is a process of analysing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes or scenarios (using expert judgment, rather than quantitative forecasts). Each scenario developed tells a story about an "alternative" future world and encourages those who explore it to "stretch" their imaginations and suspend their preconceived judgments in order to develop a perspective on complex events contained in that world.

Existing or newly formulated strategies and policies can then be tested against the future scenarios. The method is a powerful planning tool because it is based on the idea that the future is unpredictable; it enables one to ask what the future might hold and to identify relevant actions that can be taken today, no matter how the future turns out.

Delphi Survey Method
The Delphi Survey technique is a popular method used in prediction. It involves a panel of experts that judge the timing, probability, importance and implications of factors, trends, and events regarding the problem in question. The basic idea of the Delphi method is as follows:
 * create a list of statements/questions
 * have the experts give their ratings/answers/etc.
 * make a report - send it out to everyone
 * have the experts revise their answers
 * make the second report

title: Future/Prediction Methods


text:
Future/Pitfalls

Rate of Change

 * See main article: Future/Accelerating Progress.

Radical Changes
Whatever happens in the 21st century and beyond, it is likely we can't anticipate its scope. To illustrate, let's go not to the future, but to the past — about a century ago. No one in January 1900, not even Edison or Einstein, could have fully understood the sweep of change to come ... and we're talking about what was, in 1900, the immediate future.

Consider the earth-shaking events of the first decade of the century:

Taken together, those events changed Life As We Know It in a million overt and subtle ways. No feature writer alive at the time could have anticipated such things without the help of the supernatural.
 * In 1900, Freud published “The Interpretation of Dreams,” in effect creating modern psychology.
 * In 1901, Marconi sent the first wireless radio signal across the Atlantic Ocean, a development that eventually led to “Cellular Phones.”
 * In 1902, Georges Melies released the cinematic landmark “A Voyage to the Moon,” which along with “The Great Train Robbery” released the next year, invented the storytelling style we know as “the movies.”
 * In 1903, the Wright brothers left the bonds of earth ... for 12 seconds.
 * In 1905, Einstein developed the theory of relativity with his famous E=mc2, beginning a chain of events that would allow us to destroy the earth.
 * In 1907, plastic — of which our world is made — was first synthesized.
 * In 1908, Ford first mass-produced the automobile, resulting in 3 a.m. car alarms and Highway 17, among other curses of contemporary life.

So it is now. If the last turn-of-the-century is any indication, whatever happens is likely to happen quickly and make life a lot more interesting in the meantime. Pay close attention, keep good records. Those thawing from the cryogenic deep sleep are going to want to know every detail.

Oversimplification
The mind can only do so much in a given time, and for one mind to analyze a tremendous body of data can be overwhelming. Therefore, our minds unconsciously turn to an age-old method called oversimplification in order to make sense out of the confusion. This is NOT ACCEPTABLE for predicting the future, and we must try our best to make our future timeline as complex as possible and as complete as possible, for there will always be things left out. A manifestation of this is the Single Advancement Problem, the tendency of forecasters to tacitly assume that only one significant technological change will happen in society, but meanwhile everything else will stay same as it is right now.

Many science fiction stories and many futurist scenarios suffer from the "single advancement" problem. The author takes us 20–70 years into the future to tell a cautionary tale about one specific technological development (that they are most interested in), but sacrifices the believability of the future world. Even advanced thinkers routinely ignore the complex interplay of changes in different technological areas. Nanotech proponents ignore developments in the fields of artificial intelligence and virtual reality, space aficionados ignore expected advances in biotech and genetics, etc.

Exaggeration
Given the tremendous variety and possibility of the world, we sometimes cannot assume that something in particular will develop on and on. For example, one forecaster devised a Dyson Sphere—a large metal orb surrounding the sun with a circumference the size of Earth—and believed that one day humanity will actually build one. However, the amount of time needed for such a venture will be so great that in the interim there will be something else developed, which will cause the construction of the said Dyson Sphere to be cancelled. Another example can be seen in the "more power in the future" approach, modeled by bombs to nukes to a planet destroyer seen in Star Wars and Ender's Game. It is very unlikely that trends will remain THAT constant.

Absolutism
In crafting a vision of the future, many forecasters jump to the conclusion that their theory must be right because it makes sense to them, or because they feel particularly strongly. An example would be that "Christianity will be the religion of everyone in the world". That was expected centuries ago during the Holy Wars and has still yet to happen, and probably never will because there are fanatics in all religions. Another example, that socialism will prevail, was also thought definite by Karl Marx and has yet to prove the validity of his claim. Clearly, one must be careful in saying that something will occur with absolute certainty.

title: Future/Pitfalls


text:
Future/Flynn Effect

The Flynn effect is the year-on-year rise of IQ test scores, an effect seen in most parts of the world, although at greatly varying rates. It was named by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray in The Bell Curve after the New Zealand based political scientist James R. Flynn, who did much to document it and promote awareness of its implications (Flynn, 1984, 1987). The average rate of rise seems to be around three IQ points per decade. Attempted explanations have included improved nutrition, a trend towards smaller families, better education, greater environmental complexity, and heterosis (Mingroni, 2004).

IQ scores are re-normalized periodically, such that the average score is reset to 100.

Proposed explanations
Starting with Thorndike's (1975) discussion of the Binet increases, many possible explanations have been offered but few of these hold up to detailed examination (Neisser, 1998). One possible contributor has to do with nutrition ... but it has proved just as difficult to identify what these may be as in the case of height increases. For example, there is evidence from Scandinavian countries that IQ scores rose even more, 20 points per generation, following the austerity of occupation during World War II. But the quest for a single-factor explanation of increases in intellectual functioning may be just as unrealistic as a quest for a single factor explanation of the doubling of life expectancy which has occurred over the same period.

In 2001, James R. Flynn and William T. Dickens, a Brookings Institution economist, presented a mechanism by which environmental effects on IQ may be magnified by feedback effects. The paper "Heritability Estimates Versus Large Environmental Effects: The IQ Paradox Resolved" was published in Psychological Review.

Some studies focusing on the distribution of scores have found the Flynn effect to be primarily a phenomenon in the lower end of the distribution. Teasdale and Owen 1987, for example, found the effect primarily reduced low-end scores, resulting in a pile up of moderately high scores, with no increase in very high scores. Colom et al. 2005 found similar results, and presented data supporting the nutrition hypothesis, which predicts that gains in IQ will predominantly occur at the low end of the distribution where nutritional deprivation is most severe. Two large samples of Spanish children were assessed with a 30-year gap. Comparison of the IQ distributions indicated that 1) the mean IQ had increased by 9.7 points (the Flynn effect), 2) the gains were concentrated in the lower half of the distribution and negligible in the top half, and 3) the gains gradually decreased from low to high IQ.

There is, however, very substantial evidence to the contrary - and it comes from an unlikely source. Data re-published in Raven (2000) show that, as Flynn suggested, data reported by many previous researchers that had previously been interpreted as showing a decrease in many abilities with increasing age must be re-interpreted as showing that there has been a dramatic increase in these abilities with date of birth. On many tests this occurs at all levels of ability. To take an analogy: tall people have got still taller: the whole distribution has moved up.

Possibly related to the Flynn effect is change in cranial vault size and shape during the last 150 years in the US. These changes must occur by early childhood because of the early development of the vault.

Some researchers, such as Pioneer fund grantee Arthur Jensen, argue the Flynn effect largely has not changed the general intelligence factor (g), which would mean practical significance of the effect would be limited (Jensen 1987; Rushton 1999). More recent studies have found that g has improved substantially.

Studies that make use of multigroup confirmatory factor analysis test for "measurement invariance." Where tenable, invariance demonstrates that group differences exist in the latent constructs the tests contain and not, for example, as a result of measurement artifacts or cultural bias. Wicherts et al. (2004) found evidence from five data sets that IQ scores are not measurement invariant over time, and thus "the gains cannot be explained solely by increases at the level of the latent variables (common factors), which IQ tests purport to measure". In other words, according to this study, some of the inter-generational difference in IQ is attributable to bias or other artifacts, and not real gains in general intelligence or higher-order ability factors.

In the end, as with human functioning more generally, a number of varied phenomena may be contributing to the Flynn effect.

Contrary evidence
The Flynn effect may have ended in some places starting in the mid 1990s. Teasdale & Owen (2005) "report intelligence test results from over 500,000 young Danish men, tested between 1959 and 2004, showing that performance peaked in the late 1990s, and has since declined moderately to pre-1991 levels." They speculate that "a contributing factor in this recent fall could be a simultaneous decline in proportions of students entering 3-year advanced-level school programs for 16–18 year olds."

Another recent study done by Professor of Education Philip Adey and psychology professor Michael Shayer also shows that the Flynn effect may have ended in the United Kingdom. According to Professor Adey, “The intelligence of 11-year-olds has fallen by three years’ worth in the past two decades.” The study compared results of IQ tests taken by 11 year old children in 2005, the mid [1990s, and 1976, showing a precipitous drop in average IQ.

Some have claimed that the Flynn effect was masking a dysgenic decline in human reproduction and that in developed countries the only direction that IQ scores will now move is downwards. However, if the Flynn effect has ended for the majority, it may still continue for minorities, especially for groups like immigrants where many may have received poor nutrition during early childhood.

title: Future/Flynn Effect


text:
Talk:Future/Prologue

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL. --Yunzhong Hou 17:31, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Post-modern?
Shouldn't the Nuclear Age begin at the dawn of the invention of the nuclear reactor / atom bomb? from cold war onwards? 220.245.209.35 05:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC) (Wikipedia User:benlisquare)

Difference between Medieval and Dark Ages?
Just thought that the Medieval and Dark Ages should probably be considered one in the same. The Renaissance is generally considered the end of the Medieval Era but not necessarily the beginning of the Industrial Age. Usually the Age of Enlightenment follows the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution is the trigger for the Industrial Age. Also, perhaps the European discovery of America could end the Dark Ages instead of the Renaissance, seeing that the discovery of an entire continent carries more magnitude than a cultural shift and probably influenced it greatly. Cici.d (talk) 23:10, 24 September 2010 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Prologue


text:
Talk:Future/Futurology

"Introduction" copied from Futurology.

Except for "Introduction", copied from Future Wikia, page "Futurology: Future" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:49, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Futurology


text:
Talk:Future/6PPPP

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 17:33, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/6PPPP


text:
Talk:Future/4FFFF

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 17:34, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/4FFFF


text:
Talk:Future/10TTTT

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 17:34, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/10TTTT


text:
Talk:Future/Accelerating Progress

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 17:34, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Accelerating Progress


text:
Talk:Future/Certainty

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Certainties" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:51, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Certainty


text:
Talk:Future/Concepts

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 17:35, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Concepts


text:
Talk:Future/Prediction Methods

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Prediction" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:52, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Prediction Methods


text:
Template:Closed

The following discussion has concluded. Please open a new discussion for any further comments.

title: Template:Closed


text:
Talk:Future/Uncertainty

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Uncertainties" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:53, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Uncertainty


text: Template:End closed

title: Template:End closed


text:
Talk:Future/Biotechnology

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Biotechnology" using this revision --Yunzhong Hou 17:54, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Biotechnology


text:
Talk:Future/War

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 17:36, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Thermonuclear
The Manhattan Project was NOT a thermonuclear weapon, it was a fission bomb. It did not fuse hydrogen. 220.245.209.35 06:01, 1 September 2007 (UTC) (Wikipedia User:benlisquare)

title: Talk:Future/War


text:
Talk:Future/Artificial Intelligence

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Artificial Intelligence" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:56, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Artificial Intelligence


text:
Talk:Future/User Interface

Copied from Future Wikia, page "User Interface" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:57, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://aving.net/sp_edition/default.asp?mode=read&c_num=13823 (archive)
 * In Future/User Interface on 2007-10-31 03:02:46, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/User Interface on 2007-11-06 22:17:12, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/User Interface on 2007-11-07 04:17:32, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:18, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://lazyrussian.com/2006/09/15/freaky-friday-episode-3-teddy/ (archive)
 * In Future/User Interface on 2007-10-31 03:02:47, 404
 * In Future/User Interface on 2007-11-06 22:17:14, 404
 * In Future/User Interface on 2007-11-07 04:17:34, 404

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:18, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/User Interface


text:
Talk:Future/Virtual Reality

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Virtual Reality" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:57, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.esat.kuleuven.ac.be/~pollefey/demos/castle.html (archive)
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-10-31 03:02:48, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-06 22:17:16, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-07 04:17:41, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:19, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.mdrobotics.ca/ism/behind.htm (archive)
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-10-31 03:03:04, Socket Error: 'Operation timed out'
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-06 22:17:35, Socket Error: 'Operation timed out'
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-07 04:17:51, Socket Error: 'Operation timed out'

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:19, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.amazon.com/gp/yp/B0004LBWDO/103-1522520-9643809
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-10-31 03:02:46, 404 NotFound
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-06 22:17:23, 404 NotFound
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-07 04:18:12, 404 NotFound

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:19, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://a9.com/-/company/YellowPages.jsp (archive)
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-10-31 03:02:46, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-06 22:17:15, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-07 04:18:14, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:19, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.popsci.com/popsci/automotive/article/0,20967,1043197,00.html (archive)
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-10-31 03:02:46, 404 Not found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-06 22:17:16, 404 Not found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-07 04:18:24, 404 Not found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:19, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.advanced.org/jaron/topeleven.html (archive)
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-10-31 03:02:50, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-06 22:17:18, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Virtual Reality on 2007-11-07 04:18:34, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:20, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Virtual Reality


text:
Talk:Future/Emergence of China

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Scenario: Emergence of China" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 17:59, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://au.biz.yahoo.com/060110/17/gp9a.html
 * In Future/Emergence of China on 2007-10-31 03:01:03, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of China on 2007-11-06 22:15:01, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of China on 2007-11-07 04:09:12, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:10, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060228/wl_asia_afp/uschinaintelligence_060228184351
 * In Future/Emergence of China on 2007-10-31 03:01:04, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of China on 2007-11-06 22:15:01, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of China on 2007-11-07 04:09:22, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:10, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Emergence of China


text:
Talk:Future

The intro is by me. Other pages in this book come from a variety of sources, such as Future Wikia, Wikipedia, and me. --Yunzhong Hou 17:46, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Orphaned page
Future/Pitfalls is not linked to by this book. Please mark it with if it's no longer needed, link to it if it was not done so by accident, or merge it into an existing page and mark it with. -- Adrignola talk contribs 17:21, 2 August 2009 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future


text:
Talk:Future/Emergence of the EU

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Scenario: European-Union Strengthens" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 18:00, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.stoptheftaa.org/artman/publish/article_122.shtml (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of the EU on 2007-10-31 03:01:37, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of the EU on 2007-11-06 22:15:49, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of the EU on 2007-11-07 04:13:46, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:15, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Emergence of the EU


text:
Talk:Future/Emergence of India

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Scenario: Emergence of India" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 18:01, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.asia-studies.com/asia/Lowy/papers/India_webFINALsml.pdf
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:03, 401 Access Denied
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:02, 401 Access Denied
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:09:31, 401 Access Denied

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:10, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.energie-atlas.net/so-100.htm#1-2-101 (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:07, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:07, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:09:41, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:11, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.techno-preneur.net/new-timeis/ScienceTechMag/nov-05/sunshine.htm
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:07, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:08, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:09:51, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:11, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.the-week.com/26mar12/statescan_article5.htm (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:07, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:07, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:10:02, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:11, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.deccanherald.com/deccanherald/Jul22005/national174050200571.asp
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:10, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:13, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:10:11, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:11, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://travel.roughguides.com/roughguides.html (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:16, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:23, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:10:22, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:11, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf17.htm (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:17, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:23, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:10:32, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:11, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060227/ts_nm/nuclear_india_usa_dc
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:17, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:23, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:10:42, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:12, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Emergence of India


text:
Talk:Future/Emergence of India2

Untitled
Copied from Future Wikia, page "Scenario: Emergence of India2" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 18:02, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.bens.org/sw_ar030801.html (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:23, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:37, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:10:52, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:12, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3966452794541360953 (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:27, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:32, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:11:02, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:12, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.undp.org.in/hivaids/ (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:27, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:37, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:11:11, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:12, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3680/is_200504/ai_n14716261
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:28, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:31, HTTP Error: BadStatusLine
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:11:22, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:12, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1276587.cms (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:32, 400 Bad Request
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:46, 400 Bad Request
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:11:32, 400 Bad Request

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:12, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://folk.uio.no/danbanik/phdthesis.htm (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:27, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:36, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:11:42, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:13, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.asia-studies.com/asia/Lowy/analysis/Hordern,%20Indias%20energy%20needs%20final%20rev%20v2.pdf
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:27, 401 Access Denied
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:39, 401 Access Denied
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:11:52, 401 Access Denied

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:13, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/indiaenv.html (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:38, 404 Not found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:46, 404 Not found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:12:02, 404 Not found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:13, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.censusindia.net/maps/literacy.html (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:28, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:40, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:12:12, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:13, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://static.teriin.org/features/art260.htm (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:46, Socket Error: 'Operation timed out'
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:58, Socket Error: 'Operation timed out'
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:12:22, Socket Error: 'Operation timed out'

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:13, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://hdr.undp.org/docs/publications/background_papers/2003/India/India_2003.pdf (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:34, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:41, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:12:44, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:14, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.asia-studies.com/asia/Lowy/papers/India_webFINALsml.pdf
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-10-31 03:01:03, 401 Access Denied
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-06 22:15:02, 401 Access Denied
 * In Future/Emergence of India on 2007-11-07 04:09:31, 401 Access Denied

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:14, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Report+India+2005+-+India+and+World
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:35, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:43, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:13:20, 404 Not Found

--– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:14, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.the-week.com/23dec28/cover.htm (archive)
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-10-31 03:01:35, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-06 22:15:44, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Emergence of India2 on 2007-11-07 04:13:43, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:15, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Emergence of India2


text:
Talk:Future/New World Order

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 18:02, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/New World Order


text:
Talk:Future/Education

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Education" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 18:03, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.visions2020.gov/ (archive)
 * In Future/Education on 2007-10-31 03:00:56, Socket Error: 'getaddrinfo failed'
 * In Future/Education on 2007-11-06 22:14:56, Socket Error: 'getaddrinfo failed'
 * In Future/Education on 2007-11-07 04:08:42, Socket Error: 'getaddrinfo failed'

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:10, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.visions2020.gov/reports/TechPolicy/2020Visions.pdf (archive)
 * In Future/Education on 2007-10-31 03:00:56, Socket Error: 'getaddrinfo failed'
 * In Future/Education on 2007-11-06 22:14:56, Socket Error: 'getaddrinfo failed'
 * In Future/Education on 2007-11-07 04:08:51, Socket Error: 'getaddrinfo failed'

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:10, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

Dead link
During several automated bot runs the following external link was found to be unavailable. Please check if the link is in fact down and fix or remove it in that case!

 * http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Rounds/Foresight_1999__2002/Information_Communications_and_Media/Reports/index.html (archive)
 * In Future/Education on 2007-10-31 03:01:03, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Education on 2007-11-06 22:14:59, 404 Not Found
 * In Future/Education on 2007-11-07 04:09:02, 404 Not Found

The web page has been saved by the Internet Archive. Please consider linking to an appropriate archived version:. --– MBA ( talk | block ) 04:10, 7 November 2007 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Education


text:
Talk:Future/Scenario

Copied from Future Wikia, page "Futurology: Future" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 18:04, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Scenario


text:
Movie Making Manual/Screenwriting

=Writing for the Screen=

Screenwriting is different from other literary forms. The script is essentially a "blueprint" that will guide the other filmmakers through the production of the film. Often, the final film will differ from what was on the page. These differences can be as small as a few simple dialogue changes, or as large as a complete change in tone, direction, and intent. Accepting this process is key to being a screenwriter who not only writes well, but will work well with the other people involved in the film's production.

In addition to being the blueprint for the film, the script also serves as a way to get that film made in the first place. Based on the strength of your screenplay, budget, talent, and enthusiasm, the film will fall into place. It is the strength of the story that can secure financing and production talent. It's not innovative and thrilling setpieces or even a smattering of really great scenes peppered throughout your script, but a cohesive, intriguing story that holds the reader's (and eventually the viewer's) attention from beginning to end. This is such a basic concept, and yet one that seems utterly lost on some screenwriters, even those already established in Hollywood.

Write what you Know
This adage is always "Write what you know". This is excellent advice as writing from your personal experience will make the story, characters and tone believable.

The flip side of this is the joke that all first time scripts by writers who have recently moved to Hollywood are about...the struggles of a young writer recently moved to Hollywood. So write what you know but choose something of interest to an audience. You would be amazed at how easily a little known hobby of yours or a quirky friend translates into a scene or a character. Shamelessly mine your personal history and cut and paste characteristics of your friends together and you will be surprised at how little you need to spin from whole cloth.

The first ten pages of script are said to be the most important. They should begin to show how the entire film will work as a whole.

The Right Budget
More often than not, the beginning screenwriter will find that his first sold screenplay will result in low-budget film. This also applies to those writing for the independent film scene.

With that in mind, it may not be a good idea to call for giant six-legged creatures scurrying up the side of a skyscraper or epic space battles across multiple solar systems in your script. While such effects can be done on a limited budget, they will not be of similar quality to those features for which money is not a constraint.

It is not only extended special effects sequences that can break a budget, but also a large cast and/or sets. For low-budget films, try to keep both the cast and the different locations as few in number as possible. While this may seem limiting to a writer's creativity, many find the opposite to be true when they are confronted with the challenge of creating a compelling and memorable story within the confines of a low budget.

Of course, if money is not an issue, feel free to create a Lawrence of Arabia-style epic with a cast of thousands and CGI that would break ILM.

low-budget movie tips

=Screenwriting Books and Authors=

Screenwriting books come in two forms: those written by successful screenwriters in Hollywood and those by, well, other types of people. And while you may be thinking that you would prefer to read a book on screenwriting by someone who has actually sold a script, both types of books actually have their strengths and weaknesses.

Successful screenwriters ''have a certain pedigree to their "how-to" books because they have actually been there and done that. However, success in artistic fields is rarely formulaic. They themselves may be confused as to what it was exactly in their script that allowed them to sell'' it in the first place. These books tend to be slightly''' muddled in thought and offer a strong temptation to handle things the way this particular author did (because, after all, he did sell his script).

While his method may have worked for him, it may not work for you for any number of reasons. These books are worth reading because they do offer a glimpse into the thought-process of a successful screenwriter, along with the usual samples that you can study, but just remember to take their pathway and alter it to fit your writing style and personality.

The other type of screenwriting books usually comes from academia: often from a professor who has never sold a screenplay, but seems to know a lot about the format. These books are useful in learning the mechanics of the screenplay. It is crucial for a first-time writer to remember that all the characterization and pathos in the world cannot help a script that doesn't hold true to the basic foundation of  what makes a screenplay  a  screenplay in the first place. While it is true that there are plenty of scripts that break convention, knowing the convention is the only way you can break it successfully. The writers of these books can take a more generalized view of the process and focus in on things like act structures, climaxes, and inciting incidents, but rarely offer the advice on making your characters and story come alive. So any good writer will have a library that has at least two books from these two separate categories.

Syd Field and Robert Mckee
These are the two most well known screenwriting "gurus," though neither has written a successful movie. This does not mean they have nothing worthwhile to say; both writers are good analysts of structure and form.

William Goldman
Goldman won an Academy Award for "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid", another one for "All the President's Men" and he has written (among others) two famous books on screenwriting, Adventures in The Screen Trade and More Adventures in the Screen Trade. The oft-quoted "nobody knows anything" (meaning you can have all the right elements for a great movie and flop at the box office) is a quote from "Adventures in the Screen Trade". Although he does not teach structure, as Syd Field or Robert McKee do, he does provide often funny, sometimes heart-breaking insights into the life of a working (striving and surviving) screenwriter in Hollywood. His books are no screenwriting manuals, but the life and heart that are lacking in McKee's or Field's books are abundant in his memoirs. Read McKee once, so you know what people talk about when they mention "inciting incident" and other McKeeisms,... but read Goldman every now and then, to be inspired, and know that, as hard as you think writing is for you, it is even harder for him.

Cherry Potter - Screen Language
An excellent counterweight to the more structural and formalistic screenwriting guides. Includes inspiring and original suggestions for approaching the process of generating and elaborating story ideas. Also contains insightful analyses of a number of classic films, concentrating on the sequence (a series of scenes) as an essential building block.

J. Michael Straczynski - The Complete Book of Screenwriting
The Creator of the Emmy-winning series Babylon Five (as well as other credits too numerous to mention), J. Michael Straczynski provides a notable tome that marries insider experience with practical tips for outlining, writing, finding an agent, pitching and more. While his topic is broad (with sections on writing for movies, television, animation, radio, theatre and the business itself) his grasp and the script examples alone make it a worthy read. Producing between 2000 and 3000 pages of published or produced material every year, authors don't get much more credible than this.

Elliot Grove - Write and Sell the Hot Screenplay
From the director of Raindance, this book presents a down-to-earth, systematic approach to all the elements of writing a screenplay, plus a detailed strategy for selling it once it’s written. It covers a lot of ground and is therefore inevitably concise, but the clarity of the concepts and practical advice is hugely valuable. Elliot Grove regularly presents a two-day workshop of the same name, which is well worth attending

Stephen King
Okay, so he's not a screenwriter. He is, however, one of the best-selling authors of all time, so anything he has to say about writing is probably worth listening to. King's book On Writing is excellent as he tries to come to grips with what causes us to create, and looks at where the writing comes from. Anybody doing any sort of writing will find this book most useful.

=Screenwriting Websites=

http://www.wordplayer.com
WORDPLAY / wordplayer.com is a phenomenal resource. Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio are working screenwriters who co-wrote the DreamWorks animated feature SHREK, winner of the first Academy Award for Best Computer Animated Film in 2002. These guys have written a number of brilliant essays and articles on the art and business of screenwriting that are essential reading.

The Artful Writer
A blog on "information, theory and debate for the professional television and film writer". Lots of useful info.

http://artfulwriter.com/

http://www.freefilmschool.org
FreeFilmSchool.Org has extensive articles on all phases of independent film production from developing screenplay ideas to marketing the finished film.

Story&Drama
At http://www.storyanddrama.com/storytelling-tutorials/ authors will find an Introduction to storytelling explaining the basic concepts then a Working Method which describes the creative process of writing a script in 5 steps.

/Writing movies

title: Movie Making Manual/Screenwriting


text:
Talk:Future/Chig Human War

Copied from Future Wikia, "Scenario: Chig-Human War" using this revision. --Yunzhong Hou 18:13, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Chig Human War


text:
User talk:85.96.255.160

This is your last warning. The next time you insert a commercial link you will be blocked from editing Wikibooks. -- Herby talk thyme 18:13, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: User talk:85.96.255.160


text:
Talk:Future/Human Mind Project

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 18:26, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Human Mind Project


text:
Talk:Future/Human Mind Project2

This article is my own work. I hereby release it under the GFDL.--Yunzhong Hou 18:26, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Future/Human Mind Project2


text:
Adventist Youth Honors Answer Book/First aid/Improvised litter

Standard stretchers should be used whenever possible to transport a seriously injured person. If none are available, it may be necessary for you to improvise. Shutters, doors, boards, and even ladders may be used as stretchers. All stretchers of this kind must be very well padded and great care must be taken to see that the casualty is fastened securely in place. Stretchers may be improvised by using two long poles (about 7 feet or 2.1 meters long) and strong cloth, such as a rug, a blanket, a sheet, a mattress cover, two or three gunny sacks, or two coats. The figure here shows an improvised stretcher made from two poles and a blanket.

CAUTION: Many improvised stretchers do not give sufficient support in cases where there are fractures or extensive wounds of the body. They should be used only when the casualty is able to stand some sagging, bending, or twisting without serious consequences. An example of this type of improvised stretcher would be one made of 40 to 50 feet of rope or 1 1/2-inch firehose.

|


text:
User talk:88.240.210.218

Thanks for experimenting with Wikibooks. Your test worked, and has now been removed. Please use Sandbox for any other tests you want to do, since testing material in modules will normally be removed quickly. Please see the welcome page if you would like to learn more about contributing to our project. Thanks. -- Herby talk thyme 19:11, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: User talk:88.240.210.218


text:
English Tort Law

{| style="width:65%;"
 * style="background-color: cream; border: solid 1px gray; padding: 1em;" valign="top" |

Part 1: Basic topics

 * /Introduction/
 * /Negligence/
 * /Duty and breach/
 * /Causation and remoteness/

Part 2: Intermediate topics

 * /Psychiatric harm/
 * /Primary victims/
 * /Secondary victims/
 * /Economic loss/
 * /Liability for negligent mis-statement/
 * /Employers liability/
 * /Occupiers liability/
 * /1957 Act/
 * /1984 Act/

Part 3: Advanced topics

 * /Nuisance/
 * /Trespass to land/
 * /Trespass to the person/
 * /Defamation/
 * /Conversion/

Part 4: Appendices

 * /Bibliography/
 * /Glossary/
 * /Style Guide and Authors/

 * }

title: English Tort Law


text:
Artificial Intelligence/Preface

Artificial Intelligence is a vast field encompassing issues that require more space than a single book on the topic. With inspiration from multiple fields of knowledge such as neurology, psychology, philosophy and literature to say the least; artificial intelligence is an amalgamation of yet more refined subjects which are briefly described in this book. The authors of this book have tried their best to provide you with the most relevant and accurate information presently available. Please feel free to discuss on this book's discussion page.

Applications of AI
AI has a wide spectrum of applications including natural language processing, search engines, medical diagnosis, bioinformatics and cheminformatics, detecting credit card fraud, stock market analysis, classifying DNA sequences, speech and handwriting recognition, object recognition in computer vision, game playing, machine learning and robot locomotion.

Some scientists and Futurologists predict that in near future AI will make digital human, artificial life and artificial immortality possible.

title: Artificial Intelligence/Preface


text:
Artificial Intelligence/Neural Networks/Introduction

Artificial Intelligence has had its fair share from the field of neuroscience. Neuroscience is the study of nervous system, particularly the brain. How the brain enables human beings to think has remained a mystery until the present day. But significant leaps and bounds in the field have enabled scientists to come close to the nature of thought processes inside a brain.

Understanding the structure of the brain

A brain is a jelly-like structure made of grey matter which is not rigid and could not be dissected for examination under a microscope, until in 1873, Camillo Golgi developed a staining technique that allowed the observation of the elements that make up the brain. Unlike other cells that form the foundations of organs in the body, what the observers came across while studying the brain was astonishing. The brain cell or neuron was unlike any cell in the body.

With works by Santiago Ramón y Cajal, it was declared that the unit of a nervous system is certainly the neuron. Like the conventional procedures used by many in programming, a neuron has three basic functions: it takes signals from other neurons as input, processes them and sends a signal to other neurons. Because the earlier scientists thought that brain's thoughts emerge out of a network of such neurons, they set about to replicate the structure of this network. Thus was formed the first ever artificial neural network.

Artificial Neural Networks
With the lack of information available on neural networks as such, Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts sat down together in 1943 to try and explain the workings of the brain demonstrating how individual neurons can communicate with others in a network. Largely based on the feedback theory by Norbert Wiener, their paper on this atomic level of psychology enthralled Marvin Minsky and Dean Edmonds so much as to build the first ever neural network in 1951 out of three hundred vacuum tubes and a surplus automatic pilot from a B-24 bomber

In 1958 Professor Frank Rosenblatt of Cornell proposed the Perceptron, A little later In 1969 Marvin Minsky and Seymore A. Papert, released a book called Perceptrons in which they pointed out the linear nature of perceptron calculations. This killed the interest that had been generated by the perceptron, and the first lull in neural networks was experienced.

Neural Network research has gone through a number of these lulls, as new methods have been created have shown brief promise, have been over-promoted, and have suffered from some setback. However scientists have always come back to the technology because it is a real attempt to model neural mechanisms despite the hype.

Neural Networks can be loosely separated into Neural Models, Network Models and Learning Rules. the earliest mathematical models of the Neuron pre-date Mcullock and Pitts who developed the first Network models to explain how the signals passed from one neuron to another within the network. When you hear of a network being described as a feed forward or feedback network, they are describing how the network connects neurons in one layer to neurons in the next. Wiener's work allowed Mculloch and Pitts to describe how these different connection types would affect the operation of the network.

In a feed forward network the output of the network does not affect the operation of the layer that is producing this output. In a feedback network however the output of a layer after the layer being fed back into, can affect the output of the earlier layer. Essentially the data loops through the two layers and back to start again. This is important in control circuits, because it allows the result from a previous calculation to affect the operation of the next calculation. This means that the second calculation can take into account the results of the first calculation, and be controlled by them. Wiener's work on cybernetics was based on the idea that feedback loops were a useful tool for control circuits. In fact Wiener coined the term cybernetics based on the Greek kybernutos or metallic steersman of a fictional boat mentioned in the Illiad.

Neural models ranged from complex mathematical models with Floating point outputs to simple state machines with a binary output. Depending on whether the neuron incorporates the learning mechanism or not, neural learning rules can be as simple as adding weight to a synapse each time it fires, and gradually degrading those weights over time, as in the earliest learning rules, Delta rules that accelerate the learning by applying a delta value according to some error function in a back propagation network, to Pre-synaptic/Post-synaptic rules based on biochemistry of the synapse and the firing process. Signals can be calculated in binary, linear, non-linear, and spiking values for the output.

Today there are literally hundreds of different models, that all call themselves neural networks, even if some of them no longer have models of nerves, or no longer actually require networks to achieve similar effects. Because scientists still have not yet described fully the structure of mammalian neural cells or nerves, we must accept that for now, we will have to wait for the definitive nerve model before we can have the definitive Neural Network. In the meantime this is a rich area of research because it has the potential to be both phenomenal and computational and thus to capture perhaps a greater range of the operation of the brain than computational models have by themselves.


text:
Parkour/Basic Moves/Turn Vault

Steps

 * Approach the rail focusing on hand placement above all else.
 * Once your hands are secured in place, dip your right shoulder and begin the hop over the rail.
 * As your legs side vault to one side, your right hand should take all the weight while the left hand lets go of the bar to switch positions.
 * Once your hands are in position use both arms to support your weight while pivoting. Once done, you can spot where your feet will be placed.
 * Guiding your feet into position, get ready to bend the knees.
 * Bend the knees deeply to absorb the shock and prepare for the dismount.

title: Parkour/Basic Moves/Turn Vault


text:
User talk:DOTANDCOM~enwikibooks

dotandcom's talk page

Your account will be renamed
Hello,

The developer team at Wikimedia is making some changes to how accounts work, as part of our on-going efforts to provide new and better tools for our users like cross-wiki notifications. These changes will mean you have the same account name everywhere. This will let us give you new features that will help you edit and discuss better, and allow more flexible user permissions for tools. One of the side-effects of this is that user accounts will now have to be unique across all 900 Wikimedia wikis. See the announcement for more information.

Unfortunately, your account clashes with another account also called DOTANDCOM. To make sure that both of you can use all Wikimedia projects in future, we have reserved the name DOTANDCOM~enwikibooks that only you will have. If you like it, you don't have to do anything. If you do not like it, you can pick out a different name.

Your account will still work as before, and you will be credited for all your edits made so far, but you will have to use the new account name when you log in.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Yours, Keegan Peterzell Community Liaison, Wikimedia Foundation 23:07, 17 March 2015 (UTC)

Renamed
 This account has been renamed as part of single-user login finalisation. If you own this account you can |log in using your previous username and password for more information. If you do not like this account's new name, you can choose your own using this form after logging in: . -- Keegan (WMF) (talk) 04:50, 19 April 2015 (UTC)

title: User talk:DOTANDCOM~enwikibooks


text:
Parkour/Basic Moves/Underbar

Steps

 * Approaching the bar at a nice pace, focus on where your hands will be placed.
 * Jump towards the gap in the two bars with your legs fully extended
 * When your legs start to descend, grab the bar above your head
 * Once your feet are through, plant them and allow your momentum to carry the rest of your body after them

Variations
Another variation is a 360 underbar, but it is especially more useful in freerunning…

title: Parkour/Basic Moves/Underbar


text:
Parkour/Basic Moves/Reverse Underbar

How to execute

 * Begin as you would a side vault, except with an overhand/underhand grip. Put the majority of your weight on the overhand hand. (Picture 1)
 * Launch yourself upwards and begin rotating in the direction of the overhand hand. Swing your legs up to the side to clear over the railing. (Picture 2)
 * Get your head around before your body completes rotating. (Picture 3)
 * Release the underhand hand, so that your body can come fully around and finish rotating a full 360 degrees. Fixate your eyes on the ground in front of you and land on the balls of your feet with your knees bent. (Picture 4 andPicture 5)

title: Parkour/Basic Moves/Reverse Underbar


text:
Parkour/Basic Moves/Lazy Vault

Steps

 * As you approach the wall plant one hand down and use it to act as a support while your legs kick into position.
 * The furthest leg from the wall should kick up and over followed by the other leg. All the while, the hand that was planted initially should support the weight of your body.
 * As the legs clear the wall, your outer hand should be positioned and planted to take the full weight of your body, while the other hand should be freed to let go.
 * With a little push, the outer hand will propel you away from the obstacle and prepares you to spot your landing. The first leg in the air should be the first leg to land. (EG kick right leg up first, land on right leg first)
 * With your legs and body fully clear of the wall, the outer arm then lets go and a drop into landing is all that's required to finish the move.

Variations
This move can be done from varying heights. If done from major height, the trailing outer arm can be used to slow the decent down and control your landing.

title: Parkour/Basic Moves/Lazy Vault


text:
Wikijunior talk:Solar System/Uranus/Titania

I have reverted edits made by anonymous users this evening as I believe them to be incorrect. Data like the diamater of the moon and it's orbit around Earth were changed. I'm not an astronomer but I beleive these changes were not correct. I have used Planetary Society - Titania as my source. If I'm wrong please contact me via my talk page. Xania 22:06, 25 November 2006 (UTC)


text:
User talk:67.175.39.145

Please stop deliberately introducing incorrect information into articles. It is considered vandalism. If you would like to experiment, use the sandbox. Thank you.

title: User talk:67.175.39.145


text:
Talk:Japan's Foreign Policy Toward Vietnam 1978-1992/Chapter 5

fascinating, somewhat informative, there is weakness in this book, in terms of the pol pot regime human right abuse, perhaps the author could use more blunt words like GENOCIDE. the shameless profits from japan's role in supporting US troops and the reluctant to help out neighbors even with small loans and high interest should not worth the mention.

Perhaps Japan standing far on an island by itself can't never understand a neighbor's genocide problem.


text:
User:I'll bring the food~enwikibooks

I have a wikipedia account with the same name. Please see that for more info about me. Do however contact me about this project on my talk page as per normal standards.

title: User:I'll bring the food~enwikibooks


text:
User:Dylan Lake

Books I could write

 * Austrian Economics
 * Economic Applications of Game Theory
 * Economic History
 * Inkscape
 * Fractals

I should look into participating in these

 * Category:Linux
 * Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory
 * Intermediate Microeconomic Theory

title: User:Dylan Lake


text:
Talk:Singing/Breathing

This part is utter hogwash.--I'll bring the food 23:45, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

title: Talk:Singing/Breathing


text:
Category:Book:Movie Making Manual/Working Fields

A list of common working fields used in filmmaking


text:
Adventist Youth Honors Answer Book/Camping/Lost

The best advice about being lost, is - DON'T! And the best way to keep from getting lost is to stay on the path.

If you suddenly realize that you do not know where you are, then here are some things to do:

 * 1) Don't panic. You can't think clearly when you panic, so take a deep breath and relax.
 * 2) Pray. You may not know where you are, but God does, so talk to Him.
 * 3) Stay where you are.  It is a lot easier for someone to find you if you stay put.
 * 4) Listen for the sounds of other campers, traffic, waterfalls, rivers, airplanes or anything that might help you find your way back.
 * 5) Look around - maybe you'll recognize something that can guide you back to civilization.
 * 6) If you have a whistle, blow on it.  If you don't have a whistle, yell loudly. Someone in your party might hear you.  Repeat this every 15 minutes or so and be sure to listen after each sounding. (three of anything is universally recognized as a call for help, so three whistle blasts, or three shouts)
 * 7) If you have a map and compass, try to locate your position by looking for hills valleys or streams.
 * 8) You can try to relocate the trail, but you do not want to get any further away from your last known location. Mark your location with something - a backpack, hat, or a large rock - but make sure it's something unmistakable. Then venture 10 meters out, and circle your marker, all the while looking about to see if you recognize the trail or a landmark, and always keeping your marker in view.  If you do not see anything you recognize, widen the circle by another 10 meters and repeat. Continue circling your marker at ever wider intervals, but stop when continuing would cause you to lose sight of the marker.
 * 9) Climb a tree or hillside. A higher vantage point might reveal a landmark you missed from a lower elevation.
 * 10) If it's an hour or less until sunset, prepare to spend a comfortable evening.  Make a shelter, and light a fire.  Things will look better in the morning, and your fire may attract a rescuer.

|


text:
Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Magic/Colloportus

Overview
Colloportus seals a door.

Extended Description
We first see this spell used at the Battle at the Ministry of Magic where Hermione, Luna, and Harry are using it to seal doors against the following Death Eaters. While it does seem proof against the unlocking spell, the effort is ultimately insufficient as there are too many doors that have to be sealed.