text:
Future/Quotes

Quotes on Futurology

 * “The future is unknown only because it has not been created yet. Create your own path, even in this troubled world, for we will not succeed in life if we follow another’s footsteps.” ~ The Shadow Dragon
 * "The future is not something we enter. The future is something we create." ~  Leonard I. Sweet
 * "If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one." ~ John Galsworthy
 * "Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present." ~ Marcus Aurelius Antoninus
 * "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." ~ Theodore Hook
 * "The only way you can predict the future is to build it." ~ Alan Kay
 * "The future belongs to those who prepare for it today." ~ Malcolm X
 * "Go for it now. The future is promised to no one." ~ Wayne Dyer
 * "Take hold of the future or the future will take hold of you By be futurewise." ~ Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author Futurewise 1998/2005
 * "People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it. Better yet, build it. Predicting the future is much too easy, anyway. You look at the people around you, the street you stand on, the visible air you breathe, and predict more of the same. To hell with more. I want better." ~ Ray Bradbury, from Beyond 1984: The People Machines
 * "I never think of the future, it comes soon enough." ~ Albert Einstein
 * "The vast possibilities of our great future will become realities only if we make ourselves responsible for that future." ~ Gifford Pinchot
 * "It was never easy to look into the future, but it is possible and we should not miss our chance." ~ Andrei Linde
 * "It's hard to make predictions By especially about the future." ~ Robert Storm Petersen
 * "Run to meet the future or it's going to run you down." ~ Anthony J. D'Angelo
 * "The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams." ~ Eleanor Roosevelt
 * "Once you have glimpsed the world as it might be, it is impossible to live anymore complacent in the world as it is." ~ Anonymous
 * "If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible he is almost certainly right, but if he says that it is impossible he is very probably wrong." ~ Arthur C. Clarke
 * "We have no right to assume that any physical laws exist, or if they have existed up until now, that they will continue to exist in a similar manner in the future." ~ Max Planck
 * "We are prisoners of our own metaphors, metaphorically speaking..." ~ R. Buckminster Fuller
 * "A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past, he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future." ~ Sidney J. Harris

Quotes on the Future

 * "The future is not something to predict. The future is something to build." ~ Franco Ongaro @ESA
 * "Thou knowest the past but not the future. As to what is future, even a bird with a long neck can not see it, but God only." ~ Anonymous
 * "The future is made of the same stuff as the present." ~ Simone Weil
 * "The choices we make today create the future that we are dreaming of" ~ Kapil tetarwal
 * "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." ~ William Gibson from The Economist, 12/4/2003
 * Alternate: "The future has already happened, it just isn't very well distributed." ~ William Gibson
 * "The future has a way of arriving unannounced." ~ George Will
 * "I've seen the future, brother; it is murder." ~ Leonard Cohen
 * "Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to the last syllable of recorded time; and all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." ~ William Shakespeare, from Macbeth
 * "The future will be a better tomorrow." ~ Dan Quayle
 * "Our imagination is the only limit to what we can hope to have in the future."By Charles F. Kettering
 * "Most of our future lies ahead." ~ Denny Crum
 * "Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean.  It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands.  It hopes we've learned something from yesterday."By John Wayne
 * "The future will soon be a thing of the past." ~ George Carlin
 * The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write; they will be those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. ~ Alvin Toffler
 * "The future always arrives too fast... and in the wrong order."By Alvin Toffler, futurologist and writer
 * "The empires of the future are the empires of the mind." ~ Winston Churchill
 * "Let your hopes, not your hurts, shape your future." ~ Robert H. Schuller

Quotes on Futurologists

 * "If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one." ~ John Galsworthy
 * "Two things make a great futurist; a fascination and interest in change and you don’t want to get an MBA." ~Peter Bishop Ph.D., futurist
 * "In George Bush you get experience, and with me you get By The Future!" ~ Dan Quayle, from LA Times 10/19/88
 * "For I dipt into the future, far as human eye could see, saw the vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be." ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
 * "I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future." ~ Dan Quayle
 * "The present is theirs; the future, for which I really worked, is mine." ~ Nikola Tesla
 * "I'm looking for a lot of men who have an infinite capacity to not know what can't be done." ~ Henry Ford

Quotes on Innovation

 * "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." ~ Henry Ford
 * "As the births of living creatures, at first, are ill-shapen: so are all Innovations, which are the births of time." ~ Francis Bacon
 * "We must beware of needless innovation, especially when guided By logic." ~ Winston Churchill
 * "An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way By gradually winning over and converting its opponents: What does happen is that the opponents gradually die out." ~ Max Planck
 * "Too often we forget that genius, too, depends upon the data within its reach, that even Archimedes could not have devised Edison's inventions." ~ Ernest Dimnet
 * "Even for the physicist the description in plain language will be a criterion of the degree of understanding that has been reached." ~ Werner Karl Heisenberg
 * "Keep on the lookout for novel ideas that others have used successfully. Your idea has to be original only in its adaptation to the problem you're working on." ~ Thomas Edison
 * "I have more respect for the fellow with a single idea who gets there than for the fellow with a thousand ideas who does nothing." ~ Thomas Edison
 * "The future is not something which happens By just waiting for time to pass. And if you want to be assured of a life after death, you have to build it yourself." ~ Sam Hughes
 * "Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower." ~ Steve Jobs

Quotes on the Past

 * "You can never plan the future By the past." ~ Edmund Burke
 * "Telling the future By looking at the past assumes that conditions remain constant. This is like driving a car By  looking in the rearview mirror." ~ Herb Brody
 * "Those who stare at the past have their backs turned to the future." ~ Anonymous
 * "Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." ~ John F. Kennedy
 * "One problem with gazing too frequently into the past is that we may turn around to find the future has run out on us." ~ Michael Cibenko
 * "Seek wisdom, not knowledge. Knowledge is of the past, Wisdom is of the future." ~ American Indian Proverbs
 * "Don't be stuck on same routine, always follow diversity." ~ Akhtar Aly Kureshy

Quotes on Miscellaneous Topics

 * "Man has a limited biological capacity for change. When this capacity is overwhelmed, the capacity is in future shock." ~ Alvin Toffler
 * "It don't matter as long as you get where you're going, cause none of the shit is going to mean shit where we're going." ~ Eminem
 * "If you can dream By and not make dreams your master." ~ Rudyard Kipling

title: Future/Quotes


text:
The Computer Revolution/Hardware/Price

Price
The price of computers is a very interesting subject, its just like any technology the newest model out is always the most expensive and once you have purchased this model the next model has already come out with newer and better technology. A model that you could have bought in 2000 for $5000 (laptop) could now easily be worth as little as a couple hundred dollars! This goes for the same thing with desk tops and other computer types. It seems as soon as you have bought your computer and unpacked it another one is on the market "bigger and Better", there is no way to beat the computer market for prices. If you were to buy a brand new computer today for $3500 which is a decent price, then by next week the price would have dropped and a newer and better model is out. The best bet to do when purchasing a computer would be to go to a "Computer Depot" where prices are substantially lower and although your computer might not be the newest out there you won't be paying the newest price.

Modularity and upgrades
A computer offers a wide variety of areas that are upgradeable, for an individual’s interests. A computer can be upgraded to add an additional monitor. The essentials of a computer such as the storage drive and processors can often be changed out and upgraded to better performing models. Computer upgrades have developed since the 1970's and 1980's and have generated multi billion dollar industries. The age range of computer enthusiasts may be from ten to anywhere in a persons late forties and fifties. Factors which influence the desire for certain grades relates to what area a person desires to centralize their computer around. As an example: a person who desires better graphics and superior visual and audio quality will most likely look into purchasing a DAC and video card, For other individuals seeking a computer capable of holding more information and processing power, The likely choice for an upgrade would be a faster storage drive and new processor. Some corporations which have benefited off of this trend are companies such as Intel, AMD, NVIDIA, Samsung, Western Digital, and other manufacturers.

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

title: The Computer Revolution/Hardware/Price


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The Computer Revolution/Communication/Media Center

 * What a media center is

Media center is defined as: “a library, usually in school, that contains and encourages the use of audiovisual media and associated equipment as well as books, periodicals, and the like”. A media center is also a certain type of computer which generally follows the definition but offers it all conveniently at your user’s finger tips.

 * What is a Media Center for a Computer:

A computer now has the option of allowing an individual to watch television. This particular Media Center gives the option of television, radio, downloading pictures, and recording. This Media Center comes with the Windows XP. The Media Center is considered convergence as it is the joining of many Media Centers into one unit. For those that have limited space or do not know which to buy a computer or a television why not go with the PC that uses the Media Center.

 * Operations of a media center

A media center has many functions ranging from mixing music to editing photographs. Media centers can be developed and produced as a model of a series for customers to choose from. Or depending on the company, a person may be capable to build a media center from internal components to exterior and monitor size. Some of the main highlights of a media centers are the ability for not just one user to enjoy them but many. This quality of a media center becomes valuable for families and schools. Were more than one ideal software is needed, for instants a media center may have software loaded onto it that runs a film editing program and another program that allows music manipulation and creation. These are just some examples of software that are usually found on a media center.

= Multimedia gone Portable = Playstation Portable

 * Functions:

 * Play games
 * Play Movies
 * Play music
 * Surf the web

Cites

media center. (n.d.). Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.0.1). Retrieved November 25, 2006, from Dictionary.com website: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/media center

= Tablet PC =

Microsoft has created a portable computer that can replace the need to carry around a pad of paper! The tablet has a touch screen that works with a stylus so that you can write things down and directly save to your computer.

There are a few different models available, depending on the size and performance you need.

 * Convertible Model

Looks like a typical laptop, but you can flip the screen.

This may become the most popular version because the keyboard is familiar and most accurate in recording data.

 * Slate Model

Works only with a sylus pen, and the software for handwriting can't quite keep up with our demands. You can use a detachable keyboard to overcome that obstacle and this is the most portable and lightweight option.

 * Rugged Model

Similar to the Convertible Model, but is more durable for use in industrial applications.

Retrieved March 6, 2007 from http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/tabletpc/evaluation/about.mspx

Hand Held computers
Hand held computers allow you to play you favorite movies, music, and pictures while your out of the house.

=  Home Media Center  =

Home theater computers of some form have become a common staple in many modern personal media centers. There are many products and software being developed that are bringing the internet to televisions in high definition. Boxee (http://www.boxee.tv ) and Roku (http://www.roku.com/ ) are small flash memory based devices that allow online services such as Netflix, Hulu, and various sports companies to be streamed in high definition to your television.

There are also ways to set up a media server on a host computer that has music and video files stored on local and non-local drives. Windows Media Center is the most popular as it is installed on most newer versions of Windows, which can connect to Microsoft's XBOX 360 and stream over the local internet. There are also alternatives such as XBMC which is open source (http://xbmc.org/ ) and TVersity which has a free and a commercial version (http://tversity.com/ ) which create a media server that can be accessed by any internet connected streaming capable devices such as the XBOX 360 and Playstation 3, as well as over the internet through a mobile web browser.


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The Computer Revolution/Communication/Gaming

The culture
Gaming on the personal computer has evolved into a culture. Each year tens of thousands of new users log on and enjoy games online or offline. Games that are simple as solitaire, or comprehensive games based online allowing users to cooperate or compete against each other. The gaming culture has evolved to such an extent that entire worlds are based online where hundreds of thousands of users interact in a virtual society. Private businesses have adopted these ideas and invested in creating an atmosphere solely for gaming. The ideas that has taken form from these businesses are called LAN cafés. LAN café’s are built with forty to eighty computers which can all run on LAN but are also provided with an internet connection for users to join online games.

Virtual Worlds
According to "virtualworldsreviews.com", "A virtual world is an interactive simulated environment accessed by multiple users through an online interface. Virtual worlds are also called "digital worlds," "simulated worlds" and "MMOG's."

Furthermore, "virtualworldsreviews.com" goes on to say, "There are many different types of virtual worlds, however there are six features all of them have in common":

1. Shared Space: the world allows many users to participate at once.

2. Graphical User Interface: the world depicts space visually, ranging in style from 2D "cartoon" imagery to more immersive 3D environments.

3. Immediacy: interaction takes place in real time.

4. Interactivity: the world allows users to alter, develop, build, or submit customized content.

5. Persistence: the world's existence continues regardless of whether individual users are logged in.

6. Socialization/Community: the world allows and encourages the formation of in-world social groups like teams, guilds, clubs, cliques, housemates, neighborhoods, etc.

Virtual worlds have been created for several different purposes. The largest and most common type of virtual world is the "MMORPG" or "Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game." But virtual worlds have also been built for purposes other than gaming. The following section summarizes a few ways, in 2012, in which virtual worlds are currently used:

Commercial Gaming

Commercial gaming worlds tend to focus on a singular fictional theme and consistently follow formal conventions such as character-focused avatars, progression through an interactive narrative storyline, and a series of competitive events. Strongly influenced by fantasy, science fiction, and anime genres of literature and film, the majority of sizable virtual worlds in existence today are commercial gaming worlds.

Socializing / Online Community Building

In addition to the traditional fantasy RPG worlds, there are many commercial community-focused virtual worlds that emphasize socializing rather than gaming. These worlds offer a more open-ended experience and are strongly influenced by the cultures of text-based chat rooms. Although small-scale, casual games may be incorporated into a social world, participants are not necessarily there to win or play a game, but rather to socialize with others and, in many cases, create and decorate a personal space such as a home, room, or apartment. Social worlds tend to use settings based on idealized versions of reality. Most provide some basic building tools and the ability to host activities and events that revolve around a wide variety of topics. Second Life would be an example of this.

Education

Educational worlds come in a wide variety of forms, including 3D recreations of museum and gallery spaces, computer programming tutorials, virtual libraries, and meeting spaces for online university courses.

Political Expression

Virtual worlds can serve as forums for political expression and debate. While real-world political issues can crop up in gaming, social, and educational worlds, there are a few cases in which completely separate virtual worlds have been built for the purpose of political debate or even experiments in various types of self-governing online communities. An example of a virtual world with a political focus would be AgoraXchange.

Military Training

Virtual world technologies are also being used in some interesting ways by the U.S. military. America's Army is being used as a tool to recruit potential soldiers, while companies like Forterra Systems are working with military groups to develop training simulations.

http://www.virtualworldsreview.com/info/whatis.shtml

Games
The games that are produced for personal computers vary in every possible aspect imaginable. Games that are as simple solitaire, unique as simulated fishing or large and complex where empires are created and set in battle against each other. However; most of these games fall into categories such as FPS ( first person shooter), MMORPG (massive multiplayer online role-playing game), RPG (role-playing game), Strategy, Sim, Action, Adventure, Racing and many more. Each genre offers a different environment for users to become involved in. Most games allow users to create alias to identified by other players if they go online. As games have evolved and become more unique so have the users who play them. Mostly found on online games ,users have joined together to form clans which are essentially teams that can compete against other clans competing for a placement. Game developers have also aided in providing users multiple environments or scenarios for a single game. These are called patches which can be downloaded and offer new ways to play a game and experience the environment.

Online Poker
The game of poker has been around for hundreds of years however it suddenly became popularized a few years ago. Some attribute this rise of poker to the NHL strike when hockey became non existent. TV stations had to fill their hockey time slots with other sports and poker seemed to be one of them that many people began being interested in. All of a sudden we were watching world tournaments and celebrity tournaments. This sport which can turn the average Joe into a millionaire all by winning a game began to appeal to many people. To further glorify this new found game or as many would call it a gambling addiction some smart computer savvy person decided if people can play on a table why wouldn’t they be able to play online. People of all ages are suddenly able to gamble and a study has deemed that 20% of teenage males are playing poker (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4230630.stm). Many of those young people playing are said to have a gambling addiction (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4230630.stm). Some of the reasons that online poker has become so popular is due to being able to play in the comfort of your own home (doesn’t give the old stigma of a casino). Another reason is you can make money in the comforts of your own home playing a game. It is this attitude of having fun playing a game while making money (http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~brianz/theAddictionOfInternetPoker.html). Another reason online poker is so convenient is that you can access your online funds through a PayPal account (http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~brianz/theAddictionOfInternetPoker.html). Money can be quickly placed into your account as well as quickly leave your account when entering into a tournament. Though there are many reasons why online poker has become so popular is it causing a lot of harm to many people lives especially young people. Governments have not ignored this problem which is evident by the US recent decision to ban online poker! If you think your child could have an online addiction to gambling there is something you can do. Just as you can websites children can go on with special software there is also software that can prevent your children from accessing gambling websites. One of those products is called Gamblock which disables any gambling sites to be processed on our computer (http://money.guardian.co.uk/personal/story/0,,1814286,00.html).

Xbox
The Xbox, PS3 and Nintendo are fast becoming more than arch enemies in the gaming world. As technology advances the competition will increase, each striving for better graphics and the ultimate gaming experience. Take the Xbox 360 for example. This gaming console offers an online feature that surpasses the other play stations entirely. It is also marketed to be an entire home entertainment device that allows you to play music, movies and really tries to encompass the whole theory of the entire multimedia experience. On the other hand, PS3 is the Cadillac of all gaming consoles when it comes to graphics and in depth gaming. The longevity for gamers is what appeals the most as it has games that takes hundreds of hours to complete. Nintendo has gone the more 'meat and potatoes' approach to gaming. With its new wireless motion console Wii, this allows you to not only become a part of the game physically, but it also makes the Wii remote a thing of the past. There is something for everyone.


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Future/Emergence of India

 * See next article: Future/Emergence of India2.

The Republic of India could be considered as one of the emerging future superpowers   . However, facing many problems, it has a long way to go to realise its potential.

Cultural factors

 * History - India has a long history of cultural intercourse with many regions of the world. Its cultural influence has spread through the philosophy of religions like Jainism, Sikhism, Hinduism and Buddhism (particularly in East and SE Asia). Many foreign religions - Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahá'í Faith - have found home and followers in India. India has no history of imperialism. Indian culture has always spread naturally or through widespread emigration to foreign lands.
 * Bollywood - India's film industry, often known as "Bollywood", produces more feature films than any other (though not all of great quality) . In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world ( In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets in a year).
 * Democracy -
 * Unity in Diversity of world view - The scale of multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious people trying to cohabitate here is unparalleled in the world. The subcontinent's long and diverse history has given it a unique eclectic culture, claimed to be one of its great intangible assets. It is also often associated with spirituality. India's diversity forces it to either evolve strong foundations of tolerance and survive, or face break-up. The Indian public is now also accepting western influences in their society & media - and what is emerging is a confluence of its past local culture with the new western culture ("Social Glocalisation"). For some futuristic social thinkers, the miscegenation of diverse ancient culture with modernity, spirituality with science/technology, eastern with western world-view is potentially making India a social laboratory for the evolution of futuristic global-unity consciousness  . If, and only if, everything evolves right, then South Asia could emerge as a soft super-power, by being the biggest melting pot of human ethnicities, languages, cultures, religions, ideologies & world view.

title: Future/Emergence of India


text:
Future/Emergence of India2

 * See previous article: Future/Emergence of India.

Points against the rise of an Indian superpower

 * Resources - India is quickly overpopulating with growth outstripping China's . The big question is whether the land can sustain such huge pressure. For example in spite of being gifted with abundant water, huge population is making per-capita clean water scarcer.
 * Poverty - India is home to the largest number of people living under two dollars a day (approx 25% living under the poverty line)   . No one knows if India's economy will be strong enough to rescue such a huge mass of poor people. Poverty also begets child labour . Recently, to tackle this problem, the Indian Government has started a mass employment program to help employ civilians living in rural areas  . However, some note that this will be a "spoonful of reform for a sea of misery".
 * Infrastructure - India desperately needs to improve its social infrastructure such as roads, rail, power grid, water, communications infrastructure, housing and most importantly education,  if it wants to sustain its economic growth. In this regard India is decades behind in development when compared to U.S., China, etc..
 * Bad Government - India's continual economic prosperity is also hindered by bad government and ubiquitous red tape (‘Bureaucratic Raj' ). Retrogressive government regulations affect many areas. For example, in some states, black outs and power rationing are common due to underinvestment, differing state and local regulations, etc. This even affects the economic expansion of Bangalore (India's Silicon Valley).
 * Health - India's health scenario is dismal . Diseases and malnutrition is widespread amongst the poorest quarter of the populace . Mortality is still relatively high and now the bane of AIDS is spreading fast  . To improve the situation, a number of projects such as the building of some hospital chains (like the Apollo Hospitals, amongst others) has laid the foundation for a health system that can one day match global standards. However, India desperately needs more cheap and better health care system for its sub-middle class masses.
 * Social Issues - India's complex social past has left some unwanted traces in its present. Casteism  (though rapidly declining ), discrimination against girl child and occasional sparking of religious intolerance/violence in certain parts of the nation are some dirty stains yet to be totally cleansed from the fabric of Indian society. A huge number of Indian women are yet subjugated and are unable to participate in the economy with their full potential.
 * Cost of Democracy - Democracy has its value, more so in a multi-ethnic country like India . However, the applicability of all the "theoretical" virtues of democracy on a country like India is sometimes questioned   .  Some thinkers consider India's diverse and messy democracy  to levy a huge tax  on its economy. The Indian government has to consider many interest groups before decision making. It is not uncommon to see in India how a few small vested interests can stall the development for many.
 * Disputes - India's growth is impeded by disputes with its neighbouring nuclear power China and Pakistan (over some historical border issues) and disputes with Bangladesh (over water availability and the Farakka Dam). Because of the disputes, India's neighbours such as China and Pakistan remain distrustful towards India. It is also occasionally burdened with instability issues within some localised regions/smaller states of the subcontinent. In an effort to reduce political tension and increase economic cooperation, in recent years, India has improved its relations with its neighbouring countries.
 * Energy Dependence & Costs - India heavily depends on foreign oil for its growth - a phenomenon likely to continue until non-fossil/renewable energy technology becomes economically viable for masses . To avert an energy crisis India is desperately  seeking every kind of energy - gas, oil, nuclear, etc. India can sustain its growth to higher growth trajectories only if nations in Middle East, Pakistan, US, China, Europe, Japan, etc. co-operate to help and share in India's growth. As for now, India is energetically expensive since India has to import over 70%  of its energy. Costs of comforts - like personal car or even air conditioning - are extremely high.
 * Climate or Environment Problems - South Asia like many other regions has to manage various kinds of disasters, but some might become very serious issues in the future. For example, today scientists are busy trying to predict possible repercussions that global warming may have on world climate . Though humans are no where near in predicting what exactly will happen, but one of the possible effects may turn out to be a change in monsoons (weakening, aperiodicity or anything) . South Asia heavily depends on periodic monsoon. Also the Gangotri glacier, among others, is receding . If it vanishes Ganga, amongst others, will become a seasonal river. 400-500 million people survive around the gangetic plains. Clean drinking and irrigation water is already a precious resource in South Asia. Some doomsayers are already predicting that, in the future, water scarcity may even incite a war in the sub-continent. Will South Asians join hands and invest in technology development for the long run (e.g. Solar Desalination etc.) to insure their safe future ? Urban air quality in India ranks among the world's worst. Of the 3 million premature deaths in the world that occur each year due to outdoor and indoor air pollution, the highest number are assessed to occur in India.
 * Religious Intolerance - India has a diverse mix of various religions and races. The majority are Hindus by religion, followed by Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, Buddhists, Bahaii and the list goes on. Though most religions in India have been practising religious tolerance in their histories but the partition and subsequent terrorism had created some degree of uneasiness among some. The uneducated masses of these various groups sometimes get at odds with one another  . However  in recent years, relations between the different religious groups have considerably changed for better. For instance, a real chunk, if not the majority, of India's celebrities - sporting legends, film stars, industrialists, artists, politicians, scientists, head-of-state, etc. - have come from various non-majority roots, representing the emerging face of new diverse India.
 * Low Literacy - The national literacy is yet just 65.2 per cent as per the Census in 2001, even though the literacy rate in some select states like Kerala, Punjab and Goa is above 85% . Literacy drive is spreading slowly to other states , and it is hoped that the literacy rate will eventually rise above 70%. At current rates India will take no less than 20 years for a literacy of 95%.
 * Non-Classical Economic Growth - Usually, in classical sense, the economic development of a nation follows the sequence of Agricultural age, Industrial & Manufacturing age and finally comes the Services. Some observers see India to be a "odd nation out" as it seems to have tried to jump to a service dependent economy without adequate industrial base. It is argued that while services does create great islands of prosperity but for general employment & prosperity of the masses a nation does need an adequate manufacturing base . The warning goes that unless India develops mass employment for its masses (possible via manufacturing), it will not be able to generate a broad consumer base to compete with nations who are following the classical growth trajectory and are likely to soon develop their own highly competent service sector. In case India does decide to develop more manufacturing sector, it will have to reckon with nations who have already developed a core competence in this field. There are also counter arguments to this point.
 * Technology - Although an important service provider and having some developed technology skills, India is still far behind powers such as the U.S., Japan or the EU in many fields.
 * Lack of international representation - India is not a member of the UNSC council, although currently it is one of the four-nations group actively seeking a permanent seat on the council. Thus India lacks the ability to extend its influence or ideas on international events in the way few chosen nations do.

External links (For Pages 1 and 2)
Articles
 * The New India, and the Old One
 * India has skilled workforce crisis.
 * China, India Superpower - Not so fast.
 * India's Economic Contrasts
 * Why India lags China
 * Does demography advantage India?
 * The end of Gandhi's dream: India's economic boom and bust
 * India: Towards the Millennium Development Goals, UN
 * The Changing Geopolitical Landscape by National Intelligence Council
 * A New World Economy by Businessweek
 * China and India by Businessweek
 * India: the Next Economic Giant, 2004, By Lowy Institute, Australia.
 * Prospects for China and India in the 21st Century, Marvin Cetron, World future Society Conference,2004.
 * India: The next knowledge superpower
 * Newsweek Coverpage on India
 * Businessweek on India's attractiveness
 * Socioeconomic statistics and demographics of Asians in America
 * New World-Order Paradigm: The Best of the West Agrees It’s Moving East
 * Relocating to India
 * India, China, and the United States: A Delicate Balance
 * China and India Hold World in Balance
 * India and the World: Balancing Agenda
 * Indian economy on take-off stage with demographic bonus
 * Indian Economy Overview
 * Made for India
 * China and India - The Future of Investors
 * A Race to the Future
 * Indians on India Vision

Books

 * The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century Thomas L.Friedman
 * Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz
 * India Unbound
 * India: An Investor’s Guide to the Next Economic Superpower
 * Social Problems in India/B.K. Prasad
 * Energy Crisis in India

Media

 * World is Flat, T. Friedman, Colloquim Recording at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
 * One Land, two planets (listen)

title: Future/Emergence of India2


text:
Future/Futurology

Introduction
If you could see your future, would you try to make it better? If you were a Soviet in 1980 and you knew that spiraling debt would destroy your country, would you do something to stop it? If you were a German in 1933 and knew that the Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State would lead to a world war, tens of millions of deaths, and the leveling of your nation, would you oppose it?

Its safe to assume that we would all say yes to these questions. Our only excuse in letting these patterns reoccur is a claim that we can't see the future with any degree of certainty, but is this claim true? Couldn't the Soviets have deduced their overwhelmingly probable financial failure based on a combination of proven economic and socio-political models? Couldn't the Germans have deduced from history that support of absolute power always leads to failure? Why would the Germans have supported a document that circumvented their basic human rights when they had hundreds of examples throughout history that such documents are always eventually used for tyranny and oppression? How could Soviets have possibly thought that the government could endlessly support citizens who took more than they gave to the collective without going bankrupt? On top of that, how did they expect their government to survive financially while maintaining a horrendously expensive and unwinnable war in the Middle East? How could they have not seen the future when it was so evident? What good is history if we cannot learn from its mistakes and plot a better course for the future? These are some of the questions that futurology attempts to illuminate.

Futurology also uses aspects of multiple disciplines to anticipate forces of nature and predict how we will react to those forces. In our fight for survival against natural threats, our ability to plan for a future that has no historic precedent gives us an advantage over other life-forms on this planet, including those that were extinguished eons ago. For instance, taking into consideration various aspects of weather forecasting, mathematical probability, economics, and hydraulic engineering, a futurologist could predict that the New Orleans foundation code requiring only seven days of submersion allowance would not be economically sound. This would be based on the likelihood of a category-five hurricane, the engineered strength of the dikes in the face of such a hurricane, the amount of seawater likely to breach the dikes, how long it would take get rid of the water, and how much it would cost to replace the foundations of those structures that were underground for more than seven days. A hundred years ago, foundations in New Orleans were built so that they could withstand being submerged for weeks without losing structural integrity. The building costs associated with that level of stability came to be considered overkill, not because the likelihood of level-five hurricanes diminished, but because of one additional futurology consideration: a hundred years ago, the federal government would never have paid for the rebuilding of New Orleans. Even though Hurricane Katrina was entirely a force of nature, a futurologist must also take into consideration socio-political trends and the needs of his client. In externalizing costs associated with long-term risks, futurologists have become invaluable resources for shaping corporate-sponsored government legislation.

Methods of quantifying the effectiveness of corporate futurologists have become a complex science in itself, one that seeks to objectively define the difference between fantasy, science fiction, and science. This textbook explores those differences and enables society to use the power of strategic forecasting for more than corporate and political gain.

Enter the Future
In a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the timeline that is still to occur, i.e. the place in space-time where lie all events that still have not occurred. In this sense the future is opposed to the past (the set of moments and events that have already occurred before) and the present (the set of events that are occurring now).

The future always had a very special place in philosophy and, in general, in the human mind because a huge part of human life needs at least a forecast of events that are to occur.

The Discipline of Futurology
It is perhaps possible to argue that the evolution of the human brain is in great part an evolution in cognitive abilities necessary to forecast the future, i.e. abstract imagination, logic and induction. The earliest cave paintings depicting the hunting for animals did not depict the past; instead, they allowed the anticipation of the future, as only humanity can do.

Inferring what is to come from what is here is what our ancestors did and what we do with futurology. Knowing the future, imagining it, predicting it is in the nature of humans.

Imagination permits us to “seek a plausible model of a given situation without effectively observing it in practice (therefore mitigating risks). Logical reasoning allows one to predict inevitable consequences of actions and situations, and therefore gives useful information about future events. Justification forces us to question our assumptions. Induction permits the association of a cause with consequences, a fundamental notion for every forecast of future time.

Significance
Despite these cognitive instruments for the comprehension of future, the stochastic nature of many natural and social processes means that the forecasting of the future is a long-sought aim for people of almost all historic ages and cultures. Figures either actually or pretending to see the future, like a prophet or a diviner enjoyed great consideration and even social importance in many past and even present communities. Whole pseudo-sciences, like astrology or cheiromancy originated with the aim of forecasting futures.

Much of physical science too can be read as an attempt to make quantitative and objective predictions about events.

World Wide
Some intellectual foundations of futures studies appeared in the mid-19th century. In 1997, Wendell Bell suggested that Auguste Comte's discussion of the metapatterns of social change presages futures studies as a scholarly dialogue. One might make a stronger argument that futures studies as a field originated in the early 20th century, intertwined with the birth of systems science in academia, and with the idea of national economic and political planning, most notably in France, the Soviet Union and Eastern bloc countries.

The emergence of futures studies as an academic discipline, however, happened after World War II. Differing approaches arose in Western Europe (mostly in France), in Eastern Europe (including the Soviet Union), in the post-colonial developing countries, and in the United States of America. In the 1950s European people and nations continued to reconstruct their war-torn continent. In the process, scholars, philosophers, writers, and artists searched for what could constitute a more positive future for humanity, and for their own countries in particular. The Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc countries participated in the European rebuilding, but did so in the context of an established national economic planning process, which also required a long-term, systemic statement of social goals. The newly-independent developing countries of Africa and Asia faced the challenge of constructing industrial infrastructure from a minimal base, as well as constructing national cultural identities with concomitant long-term social goals. By contrast, in the United States of America, futures studies as a discipline emerged from the successful application of the tools and perspectives of systems analysis, especially with regard to quartermastering the war-effort.

Even today, a schism in perspective lingers between approaches taken by scholars in the U.S. and those in other countries: U.S. practitioners often focus on applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis, whereas Europeans investigate the long-range future of humanity and the Earth, what might constitute that future, what symbols and semantics might express it, and who might articulate these. With regard to futures studies within the former centrally-planned economies, or within the newly-developing countries, differences with U.S. futures practice exist primarily because futures researchers in the United States have no opportunity to engage in national planning, nor do their fellow-citizens call upon them to construct national symbols.

By the 1960s, academics, philosophers, writers and artists across the globe had begun to explore enough future scenarios so as to fashion a common dialogue. Inventors such as Buckminster Fuller also began highlighting the effect technology might have on global trends as time progressed. This discussion on the intersection of population growth, resource availability and use, economic growth, quality of life, and environmental sustainability — referred to as the "global problematique" — came to wide public attention with the publication of Limits to Growth, a study sponsored by the Club of Rome. This international dialogue became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967, with the noted sociologist, Johan Galtung, serving as its first president. In the United States, the publisher Edward Cornish, concerned with these issues, started the World Future Society, an organization focused more on interested laypeople.

The field currently faces the great challenge of creating a coherent conceptual framework, codified into a well-documented curriculum (or curricula) featuring widely-accepted and consistent concepts and theoretical paradigms linked to quantitative and qualitative methods, exemplars of those research methods, and guidelines for their ethical and appropriate application within society. As an indication that previously disparate intellectual dialogues have in fact started converging into a recognizable discipline, two solidly-researched and well-accepted first attempts to synthesize a coherent framework for the field have appeared: Richard Slaughter's The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, a collection of essays by senior practitioners, and Wendell Bell's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies.

North America
1975 saw the founding of the first graduate program in futures studies in the United States of America, the M.S. Program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston-Clear Lake; there followed a year later the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. The Hawai'i program provides particular interest in the light of the schism in perspective between European and U.S. futurists; it bridges that schism by locating futures studies within a pedagogical space defined by neo-Marxism, critical political economic theory, and literary criticism. In the years following the foundation of these two programs, single courses in Futures Studies at all levels of education have proliferated, but complete programs occur only rarely. As a transdisciplinary field, Futures Studies attracts generalists. This transdisciplinary nature can also cause problems, owing to it sometimes falling between the cracks of disciplinary boundaries; it also has caused some difficulty in achieving recognition within the traditional curricula of the sciences and the humanities. In contrast to "Futures Studies" at the undergraduate level, some graduate programs in strategic leadership or management offer masters or doctorate programs in "Strategic Foresight" for mid-career professionals, some even online. Nevertheless, comparatively few new PhDs graduate in Futures Studies each year.

Futurists is a term used to describe management science consultants who advise private and public orgainizations on diverse global trends, risk management and emerging market opportunities. Some countries call these interdisciplinary practitioners Futurologists.

A key element of all management is being able to anticipate what competitors, employees and customers are likely to do next, in the context of a rapidly changing wider world. Thus it is true that to some extent all effective leaders are futurists.

The futurists are also a group of artists.

Future thinking
A key part of futuring is managing uncertainty and risk. Some trends are relatively clear - for example the fall of telecom costs towards zero or the aging demographics of many countries in Western Europe. The issue is often more about timing than the nature of the events themselves.

Others are very hard to predict, including significant numbers of so-called Wild Cards, or low probability, but high impact events.

Practitioners
Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends (particularly in technology) and write accounts of their observations, conclusions, and predictions.

In earlier eras, many of the futurists were attached to academic institutions. For example John McHale the futurist who wrote the book The Future of the Future, and published a Futures Directory, directed his own Centre For Integrative Studies which was a Think Tank within the university setting. Other early era futurists followed a cycle of publishing their conclusions and then beginning research on the next book. More recently they have started consulting groups or earn money as speakers. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Patrick Dixon exemplify this class.

Many business gurus present themselves as pragmatic futurists rather than as theoretical futurists. One prominent international "business futurist", Frank Feather, coined the phrase "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally" in 1979. He has written books such as G-Forces: The 35 Global Forces Restructuring Our Future, Future Consumer.com, Future Living, and Biznets: The Webopoly Future of Business. The last three examine the strategic impact of the Internet revolution (what he calls the "Webolution") on business, economics, and society.

Some futurists share features in common with the writers of science fiction, and indeed some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, have acquired a certain reputation as futurists. Some writers, though, show less interest in technological or social developments and use the future only as a backdrop to their stories. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin wrote of prediction as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not of writers: "a novelist's business is lying".

title: Future/Futurology


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Future/Emergence of China

The People's Republic of China is often considered a rising superpower due to its large and stable population, its rapidly growing economy, and its rapidly growing military spending and capabilities. However, it has a number of economic, political and demographics problems to contend with and is still not influential enough on the international stage (compared to the scale of that of the United States) to be noted as a superpower.

Demographic factors

 * China's population is the world's largest, with about 1.3 billion citizens. With the global human population currently estimated at about 6.5 billion, China is home to approximately 20%. Because of the Two Children Policy (enacted October,2015)China is able to control its own population, although this may eventually have a detrimental effect on China's demographics.

Political factors

 * UNSC - As the only Asian country which holds a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, China has considerable influence in the foreign affairs.
 * Foreign Relations - Its military and economic aid for Pakistan has led to a permanently strong relationship with the Islamist States. It has been noted for providing direct aid to Pakistan's nuclear bid, although this has not helped its relations with some other nations. China's non-ideological approach to foreign affairs offers African and Latin American countries a desirable alternative when they seek foreign aids and potential allies. This means China is gradually increasing its soft power in areas which are traditionally dominated by the influence of western countries. Its ties with these countries have become closer through economic cooperation and trade.

Economic factors

 * China's GDP - has grown at a rate of at least 9% per year for more than 25 years (although recently the government has sought to slow this growth to prevent a crash), the fastest growth rate for a major economy in recorded history . In 2005, China became the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of nominal value and the second largest when measured by purchasing power parity, with a GDP (PPP) of US $7.124 trillion in 2004. In the same period of time, it has moved 300 million people out of poverty and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income.
 * Shanghai - also known as "Paris of the East", is moving to become Asia's financial centre and transit port for manufacturing companies.
 * Trade - China’s share in global trade is 5.2%, a rapidly growing number. China is also the world's third largest trading power (after the United States and Germany) . Reports have shown that China is not only a major manufacturing export country, but also moving up to become a high-tech product export country. During 2005, China's high-tech export is about 80 million US dollars. The Chinese government also put great efforts to push for exporting medical supplies and software. 80% of all goods in WalMart are made in china.
 * Technology - Studies show China is progressing rapidly in science and technology research. The Chinese government has spent billions of dollars in fields such as biotechnology and information technology. The R&D spending by the Chinese government more than tripled since 1998. Moreover, the numbers of the scientific research paper doubled in the same period. According to experts, China might produce more engineering PhDs than U.S. in 2010. Many foreign companies are setting up R&D centres in China due to the low costs, government support, and skilful researchers.

Military factors

 * Military - China has the largest standing army (2.3 million men) of any country in the world. China is undergoing a massive effort to improve and modernize its military technology, equipments, and power projection capabilities. Fuelled by a rapidly growing defence budget over the years (China's size of military spending is second only to the United States), China is poised to have an organized, well-trained, and well-equipped military power within the next 20 years.
 * Space exploration - China launched its first satellite Dong Fang Hong to Earth orbit on its own Long March rocket in 1970, becoming the fifth nation to achieve independent launch capability. There were over 50 Dong Fang Hong satellites launched over the next thirty years. China also became the third country (after the former Soviet Union and the USA) to send humans into space on its own in 2003. China has said that it plans to launch its own space station and to send a manned mission to the Moon by 2020, assuming funding was approved by the government.

Cultural factors

 * Soft power - China has always had an attractive traditional culture, but now it is entering the realm of global popular culture as well. Chinese novelist Gao Xingjian won China's first Nobel Prize for Literature in 2000, and the Chinese film Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon became the highest grossing non-English film. Many Chinese actors/actresses and motion picture makers such as Jackie Chan, Zhang Ziyi, and Zhang Yimou have gained international recognition. Yao Ming, the Chinese star of the U.S. National Basketball Association's Houston Rockets, is rapidly becoming a household name, and China has successfully hosted the 2008 Summer Olympics. The enrollment of foreign students in China has tripled to 110,000 from 36,000 over the past decade, and the number of foreign tourists has also increased dramatically to 17 million in 2004. Mandarin, being the most spoken language in the world, will likely increase China's soft power. China has created 26 Confucius Institutes around the world to teach its language and culture, and while the Voice of America was cutting its Chinese broadcasts to 14 from 19 hours a day, China Radio International was increasing its broadcasts in English to 24 hours a day.
 * History - China has a long history spanning 5000 years. During the times of imperial China, China held some of the most advanced technologies in the world. The Chinese invented the gunpowder, paper, the printing machine, compass, the mechanical clock, and introduced the world's first paper money. Trade and learning occurred between the Chinese and the ancient Roman Empire, the Indians, and the Arabs.
 * Diaspora and cultural spread - Another important factor is the strong and economically influential Chinese [diaspora around the world, especially in South East Asian countries like Malaysia, [Singapore, Indonesia, [Thailand, and throughout the western world. The Chinese culture carries an important place in the culture of Vietnam, Korea, Japan and other south-eastern Asian countries. The Korean kingdom absorbed much of the Chinese essence in philosophy, language, technology as well as gaining military protection. The ideas of Confucianism, originated from China, holds great influence on the lifestyles of the Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, the Chinese in China and even within the Chinese diasporas.

Military problems

 * China's military capabilities (technology and power projection) are still dwarfed by that of the United States (and the European Union, if counted as a unit), whose military spending outstrips that of its next major competitors combined. For example, in terms of operational land-based ICBM systems, it is the USA that possesses the most lethal strategic capability by far, as it has a more reliable arsenal and a massive numerical edge in ICBMs over China. In space technology as well, China is lagging behind United States' level of development as the latter had an earlier headstart in its space program.

Political problems

 * Foreign affairs - China has yet to improve its relationship with other major powers. The Chinese people are often suspicious of Japan due to Japan's occupation of China in World War II. China has also fought a war with the other Asian regional power, India, and is noted for helping Pakistan in its wars against India. A major ongoing issue is the continued Chinese claims over Taiwan. China has threatened Taiwan with invasion should they declare formal independence. Although most countries recognize the One China policy and regard Taiwan as a part of China, the United States is obliged by law to help defend Taiwan should there be any invasion from the mainland. Therefore, a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could lead to a confrontation between China and the United States, and this can be devastating to both sides.
 * Freedom of information - Some observers believe that the key to future technological growth will be the internet and global communication. Access to information is believed the key to development of science and technological ideas. Chinese control over information sources such as the internet may eventually hamper its growth. China is already less authoritarian; an example being the growth of the internet and the spread of free media. However, in recent times the government has increased its control over the media again.
 * Foreign relations clash - While the Chinese government would best maintain good relations with the United States, its good relations with Islamic nations may clash with its desire to maintain relations with the modern superpower. It is also necessary to note that some of its allies, particularly African and Latin American nations, are politically/economically unstable, which could lead to unexpected twists in foreign relations. While this is not necessary a point against China, it could be observed that Chinese foreign relations are (in the current era) delicate and unstable.
 * Foreign suspicion on China's true ambitions - Powerful nations such as the United States and India still are suspicious of China's international ambition. Some intellectuals and officials argue that China may become another Soviet Union type power, with the means and will to confront the United States, and that the U.S. may intervene to thwart China's rise. However, due to the close economic ties developed through globalization between China and these countries, a large scale military confrontation seems unlikely.
 * Incompatible economic and political model - Although China has liberalized its economy, its political system remains a one-party, authoritarian state. This have led some to believe that such two conflicting systems are incompatible and China's growth would be unsustainable in the long run. As Chinese people's affluence grew, it is believed that they would eventually demand more say in the political life of the country. This may lead to the eventual downfall of the Communist government. If such power transition towards a more democratic and open society were turbulent, this may present a setback to China's development.

Economic problems

 * Unemployment and uneven growth throughout the country - China still faces great difficulty in solving the mass unemployment problem in the rural areas. Furthermore, although the eastern seaboard areas of China have experienced a tremendous (often double-digit) economic growth rate and are major recipients of FDI into the country, similar breakneck growth rate has been lacking in the relatively undeveloped western areas. To close the gap and to catch up with China's wealthier eastern provinces, the government has initiated China Western Development strategy, the Revitalize Northeast China initiative, and the Rise of Central China policy. On a more micro-scale, there's also a big gap over urban-rural population wealth. This great disparity in urban-rural income (on average, urban residents earned three times more income than their rural counterparts) has caused concerns such as social discontents. Officially, an estimated 150 million Chinese still live below international poverty line (living under US$1 per day) in 2005. This has prompted the government to take steps such as abolishing the 2,000-year-old agricultural tax, exempting personal income tax for those receiving monthly income below 1,600 yuan, and increasing investments in rural infrastructure, education, and health services.
 * Technology sector - In some technology fields, China is still decades behind its counterparts such as the United States or the European Union. As many consider the manufacturing sector to have a minor (and decreasing) importance to technological advances and the surge of tertiary and quaternary sectors, to be a major industrial powerhouse would not necessarily characterize a nation as a superpower, but just a huge new commodity producer.
 * External dependency - The Chinese economy has a large dependence on foreign trade (exports) and investments. Therefore, any sudden fluctuation such as a downturn in global economic growth and/or demands for Chinese goods may have a significant adverse effect on the economy.
 * Currency - While China is a source of cheap and efficient labour force to foreign countries, it is the opinion of some experts that the Chinese currency needs re-evaluation and is currently greatly undervalued. This is a disadvantage of its rapid growth in recent years. When the currency is thoroughly re-valued, it is possible that the outsourcing of jobs to China would lessen somewhat. While a stronger currency is a concern for China's manufacturing industry, a positive effect could see the reduction of China's over-reliance on foreign trade and investments as the current main engine for its economic growth. It will thus cause domestic consumption to increase its role in fuelling the economic growth. This type of growth would be more stable towards external economic conditions and sustainable for longer periods of time. As of 2005, the share of domestic consumption in China's overall GDP is only approximately 30%, far below United States' share of 80% (most other industrialized nations' share are about 60-70%).
 * Trade imbalance - Products that are labelled Made in China are not necessarily developed or designed in China. In fact, 60% of Chinese goods that are exported come from overseas-invested factories, according to Chinese customs data. China has become a focal point for assemblies, where final products are assembled and/or tested, but not manufactured there. The main components are still imported from other countries. For instance, although China keeps a [trade surplus of US$200 billion with the United States, it has a trade deficit of US$137 billion with Asian countries.
 * Deteriorating environment - As a result of previous growth-at-all-costs strategy, China's environment is in a state of serious degradation. Soil erosion, desertification, air pollution, loss of arable lands, and steady falling of [water table especially in the north are serious problems and are estimated to cost the Chinese economy billions of dollars per year. Water is already a scarce commodity in China (especially in northern arid regions) where per capita water supplies are less than a quarter of the world's average. Pollution from coal causes over 250,000 deaths annually. By 2020, it is predicted that China will account for up to 19 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. To respond to these problems, the Chinese government has embarked upon a number of projects such as Great Green Wall project (planting billions of trees to hold back desertification) and building canals to divert water from water-abundant southern regions to arid northern regions.
 * Economic crimes - Due to the lack of openness of the Chinese society in general, economic crimes such high-level corruption and collusion have become rampant among party and government officials, and this may hinder China's economic growth and hurt the confidence of investors. Combined with worsening social problems in China (due to wide urban-rural income gap), there are about 87,000 big and small-scale demonstrations throughout China in 2005 alone.  Most of these public discontents are not political; rather they are due to economic reasons. Peasants for example, are being forced to leave their land and are compensated poorly. Their confiscated lands are then sold at a much higher price with the local officials keeping much of the proceeding profits.

Demographic problems

 * One Child Policy - A side effect of the One Child Policy is China's rapidly aging population, although this is likely to stabilize over time, it is predicted that by 2020, 25% of China's population will be considered retirees, so they cannot contribute to the work force. This could disadvantage its economy. Despite government prohibition, the One Child Policy and cultural preferences over sons have encouraged female infanticide and gender-based abortion. If trends continue, there will be 30-40 million more men of marriageable age in 2020 than there are women.

title: Future/Emergence of China


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Future/Emergence of the EU

The European Union contains the former global powers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom and numerous other former colonial powers such as Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands along with many other countries in Europe. For the purpose of this article, it is considered to be a unit, but please see "points against the rise of an EU superpower".

Demographic power as a unit

 * Demographically, the EU has a population of 456 million, ranking it third behind China and India. Eurostat (PDF File) This does not take into account possible future enlargements. The largest of which, Turkey, would boost the EU population by 70 million people. However, the EU's population is exhibiting nearly zero organic growth and this is also true of the majority of new countries being considered (Turkey being the exception). By 2050, current growth rates would have both the United States and Indonesia passing the EU community in population.

Political power as a unit

 * Stable Governments - Politically, the constituent nations of the EU possess some of the most stable political systems in the world; this is in part due to the fact that stable government is a prerequisite to joining the EU. This said, new entrants to the European Union, especially in Central Europe have problems with corruption.
 * UNSC - France and the United Kingdom both have permanent seats in the UN Security Council, with Germany part of the Group of Four vying for a permanent seat in the Security Council. Including non-permanent members, it is currently possible that five of the fifteen total seats of the Security Council could be taken by EU members. This, however, does not mean that the EU as a whole will necessarily speak with one voice, although there is currently a movement to abolish the seats of France and the United Kingdom in favour of a single European Union seat.

Cultural power as a unit

 * History - Culturally, the European Union member states have phenomenal cultural influence. This is due to each of the member countries having such a rich and separate history and cultural identity and the spread of these cultures through colonialism and imperialism.
 * Global cities - The EU contains two of the four global cities, London and Paris, this is a testament to the advanced development and cultural influence of Europe.
 * Influence of Membership - The EU also has possibly the world's greatest so-called soft power. Just the possibility of membership of the union can inspire impressive changes in its neighbours. For example, it is considered that the EU's soft power was one of the causes of revolution in neighbouring countries such as Ukraine (see the Orange Revolution).

Economic power as a unit

 * Size (GDP)- Economically, the EU wields clout and possesses the largest economy in the world when combined; in 2004, it had a GDP (PPP) of $11,723,816 million according to the IMF and $12,020,939 million according to the World Bank. According to the CIA Factbook's figures for 2005, the EU still has the world's second largest economy, when combined, after the USA.
 * Trade This has led the EU to wield much power over other nations, recently starting trade disputes with China over its textile exports and the United States over alleged subsidies of Airbus and Boeing.
 * Space Exploration - several EU member states together run a common space programme, the European Space Agency, although this organisation is not EU sponsored. It has designed its own successful rocket class, the Ariane rockets and has its own spaceport at Kourou, French Guiana. Although no European nation (excluding the then Soviet sphere) ever joined the space race, there being no political will at the time to spend the money required to send people into space, it is likely that if the EU and ESA wished to send people into space, they could. The ESA has also sent probes to many other planets, including Mars and Saturn's moon Titan. The European Union is also setting up its own global positioning network, Galileo to rival the American controlled GPS and Russian controlled GLONASS.

Military power as a unit

 * Please note that the EU's military power does not currently function as a unit in any major sense, but this may well be beginning to change, although it is of note that there is much debate on this issue, and that some EU member states hold strong views on defence neutrality (in some cases, this is a constitutional issue)

 * Size and Spending - if one were to take the EU member states armed forces and assume that they were EU controlled, then it is argued that the European Union would have armed forces stronger than the next few countries put together; although weaker than the United States. European Union member states defence spending is US$193 billion, compared to the United States' US$390 billion: but both of the two (assuming the EU member states spending is grouped for the purposes of comparison) are still far ahead of the next nearest country, China, whose expenditure estimates range from US$35.4 billions (SIPRI) to US$90 billions (DoD). N.B. Problems in making comparisons of defence spending figures include: (i) some EU member states neutrality policy, (ii) some EU member states (e.g. Italy) whose defence spending figures include expenditure on internal security / policing matters - there being no comparable spending included in the US defence spending figures, and (iii) differences in the presentation of subsidies to industrial concerns for defence purposes - e.g. France includes expenditure to EADS on the A400M project in its defence expenditure, whilst the US tends to support similar defence issues through taxation, and therefore there are differing corresponding figures for such defence expenditure in the US figures.
 * Technology - European Union member states have some of the most disciplined armies in the world, and their technology levels are comparable to those of the United States. Indeed, the two share extensively military technology, intelligence, tactics and strategy.
 * Nuclear Power - Two European Union member states also have their own substantial nuclear arsenal of approximately globally deliverable 550 nuclear warheads, divided between France and the United Kingdom. Whilst these arsenals are smaller in simple numerical terms than that of either the US or Russia, either arsenal is sufficient to devastate any conceivable adversary, and therefore can be said to be a credible defence deterrent.  Of note is that other member states have strong positions on nuclear weapons - for example in Germany public opinion is strongly opposed against any participation in the operation of any nuclear weapons force.

Points against the rise of an EU superpower

 * No Unified Military - The EU does not fulfil all criteria for superpower status, because it does not currently have a unified military force, amongst many other substantial reasons. As an example, the forces of the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy participated in the invasion and/or occupation of Iraq beginning in 2003. The governments of France and Germany condemned the invasion. This problem of unity is caused because there is no common foreign and security policy without unanimity amongst member states, and the means to project power externally remains controlled by member states. Whether or not such powers are assumed by the EU and removed from EU member states is a subject of much debate - indeed there is currently no official proposal for this although many people have long term aspirations for the EU to have these powers. Political and military fragmentation presents the greatest limiter to the EU's status as a single superpower.
 * EU Integration? - This status would likely depend on further progress in European integration and federalisation, if that were to be the direction agreed for the EU as a whole. The repudiation of the new European constitution by the voters of founder nations and other EU member states viewed as having broadly positive positions on integrationist ideas, France and the Netherlands, in 2005, undermined plans for closer integration. With comments made by Austria's presidency, the constitution may be resurrected, although there is continuing debate as to the feasibility of this - the Dutch government has in particular indicated dissent for any proposal to present substantially the same proposals a second time. The former German government favoured putting the EU constitution to France repeatedly until they say "Oui", which is viewed by some as undemocratic. Future political developments will determine the place of the EU in world events.
 * Aging - Demographically, the EU has a fast aging population, comparable only with Japan, presenting prospective problems concerning sources of labour, economic growth as well as welfare expenses. This could be partially offset if Turkey eventually accedes to the EU.
 * Unification => 1 UN Seat - Unification of all powers in foreign policy and defence matters under the Common Foreign and Security Policy would mean that it is likely that only one permanent seat in the UN Security Council would be controlled by the EU by some means. This may lead to the EU's political influence lessening somewhat.
 * Economic growth - Though the EU currently has an economy just as large as the US, its annual economic growth rate is only 1.7%. In comparison, the US is growing at 3.5%, China is growing at 9.2%, and India is growing at 7.1%. Unless this improves, the EU's share of world economy is likely to decrease in future.

title: Future/Emergence of the EU


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Future/Scenario

Scenario Planning
Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in Futures Studies. Government planners, corporate strategists and military analysts use them in order to aid decision-making. The term scenario was introduced into planning and decision-making by Herman Kahn in connection with military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s.

A scenario can be defined as:

"A rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world,  one sufficiently vivid that a planner can clearly see and   comprehend the problems, challenges and opportunities that   such an environment would present."

A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a plausible description of what might happen. Scenarios are like stories built around carefully constructed plots based on trends and events. They assist in selection of strategies, identification of possible futures, making people aware of uncertainties and opening up their imagination and initiating learning processes.

Use of Backcasting
On this wiki, an important element of scenarios is backcasting, that is working back from a possible outcome such as 'a robot in every home', to the enabling steps that are likely to precede it - 'robot surgery'. Our scenarios aim to show event strings that lead to particular destinations - and to be more informative and more plausible for it.

Questions That Drive Scenario Planning
Although scenario planning is a rewarding method it is also very demanding. The difficulties in its use can arise from a lack of clear focus, purpose or directions. As a result too many scenario stories can be created and/or their content may not be directly related to the strategic question.

So, to be useful as a strategic tool, additional material related to a scenario is needed. Indeed, scenarios should be drawn up to provide insight into particular questions. Questions may be ones such as:

 * What should we do about this possibility? Do we want to encourage it or discourage it, and do we have the tools to do so?
 * What is the likely range of variation on this scenario? Do we have a litmus test to tell us which 'regime' of this scenario we are heading into?  What actions should this trigger?

In this way a scenario changes from being mere entertainment into being a strategic tool.

Matrix of Outcomes and Litmus Test
The original form of scenario planning often used a matrix of factors to analyse. For example, suppose I am setting up a company for making robots, two of the many factors to consider around demand for the product are:
 * Is the demand likely to be high in level or low?
 * Is the demand likely to be continuous or arrive in bursts?

This leads to a matrix with four cells, each of which requires slightly different strategy. Sometimes these are given names:
 * Boutique - low demand, constant demand.
 * Commando - low demand, fluctuating demand.
 * Pipeline - high demand, constant demand.
 * Armada - high demand, fluctuating demand.

Given these four destinations, I can formulate a strategy to address each such market. If in addition I have a litmus test which tells me which regime the market is heading towards, I can plan ahead.

Shell's 'Balanced Scenarios'
In Shell's scenario planning, the process presented two contrasting scenarios for review each with a carefully chosen mix of factors. In the Shell approach the two scenarios are required to be equally likely, and between them to cover all the 'event strings'/drivers. Ideally they should not be obvious opposites, which might bias their acceptance by users, so the choice of 'neutral' titles is important. For example, Shell's two scenarios at the beginning of the 1990s were titled 'Sustainable World' and 'Global Mercantilism'. In practice this requirement posed few problems for the great majority, 85%, of those in the survey; who easily produced 'balanced' scenarios. The remaining 15% mainly fell into the expected trap of 'good versus bad'.

Management of Uncertainty
The scenario based planning methodology is an analytic framework tool used for ordering one's perceptions about alternate future environments in which today's decisions might play out. Scenario planning is NOT a predictive mechanism, but a way to manage uncertainty today.

Scenario analysis is a process of analysing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes or scenarios (using expert judgment, rather than quantitative forecasts). Each scenario developed tells a story about an "alternative" future world and encourages those who explore it to "stretch" their imaginations and suspend their preconceived judgments in order to develop a perspective on complex events contained in that world.

Existing or newly formulated strategies and policies can then be tested against the future scenarios. The method is a powerful planning tool because it is based on the idea that the future is unpredictable; it enables one to ask what the future might hold and to identify relevant actions that can be taken today, no matter how the future turns out. Scenario analysis is one the most popular and widely used method in futures studies and foresighting.

title: Future/Scenario


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Future/Accelerating Progress

The Rate of Change
One difficulty that futurologists may be encountering is what's often viewed as an ever-quickening rate of change.

It is a common notion that in science and technology the progress is accelerating. However, there are different ways of describing this trend, primarily because unlike mathematical applications in physics, the rate of change of civilization is more subjective and has many more variables. The following are different ways of describing the rate of change.

Change as a Polynomial Function of Time
The simplest formula for describing accelerating progress is

y = t^p,

where t and p are various constants--t for time and p for power(exponent)--and where p > 1.

The quadratic formula, where p = 2, is sometimes described as the amount of scientific knowledge doubling over each length of time t.

Change as an Exponential Function of Time
The polynomial function, however, does have its weaknesses. The idea is that not only is progress advancing, but the rate of that progress (the rate of change) is also increasing. In addition, the rate of THAT rate of change is also increasing, and so is THAT rate. The rate of change can be modeled by the equation

y = e^ct

for which c represents a constant and for which the derivative and antiderivative (the rate of change of, and the amount of progress caused by, respectively) are also e^ct. Every degree of change is increasing by the same degree of change.

This would mean that, for a futurologist, the amount of change that one sees in the last 100 years would repeat itself in only a few decades (such as 2020-2060, or 2060–2080). If true, this translates into a tremendous burden when predicting beyond twenty years into the future; one would need to careful that, in one's predictions, more and more technologies would be discovered faster and faster in any timeline.

Change as a Transcendental Function of Time
Some futurologists believe in the concept of a Singularity, which means that there is a limit at which we have all knowledge possible and at which change occurs at an infinite rate (y = infinity). Since the exponential function does not have such a y-value asymptote, we must refer to a function that does:

y = tan(t)

This function becomes increasingly larger, with y approaching infinity, as t approaches 1, rather than as t approaches infinity. Setting 1 equal to some particular year greater than the current one, we have the fabled singularity.

This theory too has its weakness, notably that its derivative, y = sec(t) x tan(t), is no longer the same as the original function.

Change as a Hubbert Curve Function of Time
There are, however, some challenges to the idea that the pace of change is increasing. Physicist Jonathan Huebner of the Naval Air Warfare Center recently conducted an analysis in which he found that the number of key innovations per person peaked in the last 19th or early 20th century, depending on which criteria he used. This relationship can be modeled by Hubbert's curve, defined as the derivative of the logistical function.

x = {e^{-t}\over(1+e^{-t})^2}={1\over2+2\cosh t} $$

Huebner (2005) suggests that the slowing pace of technological development is probably linked to either "an economic limit of technology or a limit of the human brain that we are approaching" (p. 985). If true, then the pace of change may well slow rather than gain speed in coming years, making the more extreme visions of the next century less likely to occur.

Limitations
Some of these ideas were put in an organised form by Price in 1950s and some recently by Yunzhong Hou and has become a common wisdom.

It does indeed seems that we live in times of accelerating change and there are certainly arguments supporting this idea. However, it appears that the original empirical evidence supporting this idea is not bulletproof.

One problem is that even today most people putting forward the argument essentially reuse the same data points, originally collected and published in 1950s by Price and others (often they simply add more recent inventions to their timelines, such as DVD). There is little consistency in determining the precise moments of "invention" and "realisation" (different authors give vastly different lengths of the invention gap, for example); it has been shown that by defining the moments differently the same inventions can be used to "prove" that progress is actually slowing down.

The use of scientometrics (i.e. analysis of science indicators, such as the number of scientific papers published about a field, for example) has also been criticised as an argument for the acceleration of progress.

It is quite important that we at least understand the picture ourselves. Yes, in some fields exponential growth can be demonstrated and yes, sometimes a technically false claim makes for a good rhetorical device in speaking about a bigger truth, but we may find that we are lying to ourselves.

title: Future/Accelerating Progress


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Future/War

Wars will remain on the minds of people for generations to come, because there is always the possibility, the drive, and the ability to wage war. Hence, warfare will continue as it always has, with the better replacing the older, weaker versions along the road to the ideal of "military perfection". Because of the potential consequences of war, we must take a look at the forms of wars to come.

This article serves as a basic overview of futuristic militaries.

Out of the Shattered Earth
In order to understand the military situation, it is best to first analyze the political situation.

Nationalism
As has occurred since the beginning of time, the Earth will continue to be divided between different factions, each with its own leaders, its own cultures, its own peoples, its own political agenda. This phenomenon, nationalism, will continue for some time to come, yet it will in time be supplanted by the slow but steady increase in alliance to the world as a whole rather than to individual nations.

Globalization
This trend can already be seen in the formation of such prominent organizations such as the United Nations, the European Union, and the World Health organization. Other, smaller NGO's--non-governmental agencies—already exist, and help to unify the peoples of the world along common fronts for their objectives.

Unification
There are many fronts along which worldwide unification will become more and more important. For example, the political needs of diplomacy, collaboration, economic sanctions, trade alliances, and political pressure all combine to strengthen the United Nations. Generally, the United Nations is on the path to greater prominence; but this change will not come on its own; the United Nations must first prove that its concurrences are supportable, and that its Security Council proves to be of valid power. Clearly, this can be done in two ways: economic and military.

The War on Terror
Additionally, the contemporary "War on Terror" will continue and become increasingly prominent on the global scale to the point of massively influencing both the political and the military situation. This crisis is compounded by the fact that unlike national-level wars, terrorist groups do not hold much of a target and therefore are more resilient in their methods of conducting warfare.

Other Forces
Along another front, the growing situation of global warming will lead to the rise of coalitions dedicated to a "War on Global Warming". Those nations in this group will first prove to themselves that doing so is fiscally responsible and politically advantageous. Other situations include the drive to find a replacement for the nonrenewable resources, the international collaboration of research efforts, outsourcing jobs to other places, and the enlargement of the World Health Organization.

Conventional Warfare
The development of the military is progressing along several broad fronts. Conventional warfare, such as aircraft, missiles, tanks, rocket launchers, ships, submarines, and infantry, will continue to exist in every nation's military. However, these means of warfare are becoming increasingly replaced with newer, experimental technologies relying on different fields of study. The newer means are generally far cheaper than continued occupation by an army, and generally their effects differ significantly, allowing for various functions to be performed to their optimal extent with the least cost.

Guerilla Warfare
The next front developed after the conventional was the guerilla, developed in times long forgotten, placing reliance on limited operations on the covert level with maximized effectiveness of limited means. This mode of warfare is clearly more efficient than conventionalized war, and generally results in difficult attempts to eradicate. Guerilla forces have triumphed in many wars, notably the Vietnam War. In other situations, and increasingly in the modern era, guerilla warfare is fast becoming impractical. Without an organized leadership such as those consisting of Hezbullah and al Qaida, to name a few, smaller groups with modest means cannot obtain the same level of military leverage to pose much of a threat to occupying nations.

Chemical Warfare
Chemical warfare was devised for the first time on a prominent level in World War One, with the advent of mustard gas. Lately, the variety of chemicals wielded to killing, demonstration-disrupting, or eradicating purposes have increased significantly, fueled by continuing interest in chemistry.

Informational Warfare
Informatics is quickly becoming another field of warfare, one that generally entails reduced bloodletting and more "brains". Various fields, such as ELINT (electronics intelligence—tapping into conversations, controlling the internet) and SYSINT (systems intelligence—finding out how operations work) have grown to bureaucratic levels, as have radar, sonar, doppler, and other detection methods.

Nuclear Warfare
Then in the 1940's, the Manhattan Project resulted in the development of the thermonuclear chain reaction, initiating the global arms race of the century. Though with the advent of the United Nations, such activities are impractical, they continue to be used in limited instances such as "bunker busters". Dirty bombs—conventional explosives with radioactive contaminants—are quickly gaining in prominence due to their ease of use and extent of effect.

Biological Warfare
An age-old method (arguably the first ever devised) that has only recently become feasible on a great and possibly terrible scale is biological warfare, entailing the use of pathogens and other creatures to sicken, decrepify, or kill countless people. Though this has not been applied to a significant extent, as the twenty-first century progresses the chances of a group's successfully applying biotechnology to manufacturing a plague continues to increase. Furthermore, as the world becomes more and more globalized and populated, the effects of such a plague are too often underestimated.

Media Warfare
The awareness of the media is becoming an ever greater concern. Politicians now must heed the cries of the masses for rollbacks on their overt domestic and foreign agenda, and in many democratized nations the extent of military activity is clearly shown to any citizen who wishes to investigate the matter. We have here, then, the general conflict between the state and the seemingly recalcitrant media organizations, such as newspapers, magazines, posters, internet communication, radio, and television.

The Path of Things to Come
As warfare increasingly becomes something to be scorned, attention will turn away from warfare toward the other means of garnering support and power, notably the persuasion of the masses. Gradually, culture, language, religion, ideals, and propaganda will supplant the ambitious state's need for a military force.

War has now left the ground. It has entered the water, the earth below us, and the sky above. It has enveloped the world and become more and more destructive in the same way that living beings evolve to become better and better. It is a progress that continues relentlessly, as such is the law of nature. Before long, it will enter the nanotechnological level and the realm of space, the last frontiers. When it does, we will see yet additional revolutions in warfare, as have all the drastic changes that preceded it.

title: Future/War


text:
User talk:Drukepple

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title: User talk:Drukepple


text:
Programming AI with Leaf

Have you ever wanted to create artificial intelligence software (AI) but did not know where to start? Have you wanted to put this AI into a robot? If so Leaf is for you. Leaf is the AI software that starts you with a working AI framework that you add to and customize as you wish. It was put together by the Leaf Project, a group robot development program whose objective is to develop a robot platform that supports experiments with artificial intelligence, vision, voice recognition, navigation, etc.

Contents

 * 1)  /Noted contributors/
 * 2)  /Development/
 * 3)  /Communicating With Outside Programs/
 * 4)  /Overview/
 * 5)  /Installing/
 * 6)  /Creating Your Own Leaf/ (Customizing Leaf)
 * 7)  /Face Recognition with Eigenfaces/
 * 8)  /Adding to Leaf: the SD84 Servo Controller/
 * 9)  /Adding to Leaf: the ALICE Chatbot/
 * 10)  Q&A (Ask a question!/)
 * 11)  /Leaf's Creators/
 * 12)  /Sources for LEAF Robot Parts/

title: Programming AI with Leaf


text:
Programming AI with Leaf/Development

Editing Programming AI with Leaf/Development
Programming AI with Leaf/Development/Leaf and Linux

Programming AI with Leaf/Development/RSS Feeds for Weather, News and Sports

Programming AI with Leaf/Development/How to change Leafs name

Programming AI with Leaf/Development/Installing drivers for Microcontroller

title: Programming AI with Leaf/Development