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Island Life/VIII

CHAPTER VIII

THE CAUSES OF GLACIAL EPOCHS

 * Various Suggested Causes—Astronomical Causes of Changes of Climate—Difference of Temperature caused by Varying Distance of the Sun—Properties of Air and Water, Snow and Ice, in Relation to Climate—Effects of Snow on Climate—High Land and Great Moisture Essential to the Initiation of a Glacial Epoch—Perpetual Snow nowhere Exists on Lowlands—Conditions Determining the Presence or Absence of Perpetual Snow—Efficiency of Astronomical Causes in Producing Glaciation—Action of Meteorological causes in Intensifying Glaciation—Summary of Causes of Glaciation—Effect of Clouds and Fog in cutting off the Sun's Heat—South Temperate America as Illustrating the Influence of Astronomical Causes on Climate—Geographical Changes how far a Cause of Glaciation—Land acting as a Barrier to Ocean-currents—The theory of Interglacial Periods and their Probable Character—Probable Effect of Winter in Aphelion on the Climate of Britain—The Essential Principle of Climatal Change Restated—Probable Date of the last Glacial Epoch—Changes of the Sea-level dependent on Glaciation—The Planet Mars as bearing on the Theory of Excentricity as a Cause of Glacial Epochs.

No less than seven different causes have been at various times advanced to account for the glacial epoch and other changes of climate which the geological record proves to have taken place. These, as enumerated by Mr. Searles V. Wood, Jun., are as follows:—

1. A decrease in the original heat of our planet.

2. Changes in the obliquity of the ecliptic.

3. The combined effect of the precession of the equinoxes and of the excentricity of the earth's orbit.

4. Changes in the distribution of land and water.

5. Changes in the position of the earth's axis of rotation.

6. A variation in the amount of heat radiated by the sun.

7. A variation in the temperature of space.

Of the above, causes (1) and (2) are undoubted realities; but it is now generally admitted that they are utterly inadequate to produce the observed effects. Causes (5) (6) and (7) are all purely hypothetical, for though such changes may have occurred there is no evidence that they have occurred during geological time; and it is besides certain that they would not, either singly or combined, be adequate to explain the whole of the phenomena. There remain causes (3) and (4), which have the advantage of being demonstrated facts, and which are universally admitted to be capable of producing some effect of the nature required, the only question being whether, either alone or in combination, they are adequate to produce all the observed effects. It is therefore to these two causes that we shall confine our inquiry, taking first those astronomical causes whose complex and wide reaching effects have been so admirably explained and discussed by Dr. Croll in numerous papers and in his work—"Climate and Time in their Geological Relations."

Astronomical Causes of Changes of Climate.—The earth moves in an elliptical orbit round the sun, which is situated in one of the foci of the ellipse, so that the distance of the sun from us varies during the year to a considerable amount. Strange to say we are now three millions of miles nearer to the sun in winter than in summer, while the reverse is the case in the southern hemisphere; and this must have some effect in making our northern winters less severe than those of the south temperate zone. But the earth moves more rapidly in that part of its orbit which is nearer to the sun, so that our winter is not only milder, but several days shorter, than that of the southern hemisphere. The distribution of land and sea and other local causes prevent us from making any accurate estimate of the effects due to these differences; but there can be no doubt that if our winter were as long as our summer is now and we were also three million miles further from the sun at the former period, a very decided difference of climate would result—our winter would be colder and longer, our summer hotter and shorter. Now there is a combination of astronomical revolutions (the precession of the equinoxes and the motion of the aphelion) which actually brings this change about every 10,500 years, so that after this interval the condition of the two hemispheres is reversed as regards nearness to the sun in summer, and comparative duration of summer and winter; and this change has been going on throughout all geological periods. (See Diagram.) The influence of the present phase of precession is perhaps seen in the great extension of the antarctic ice-fields, and the existence of glaciers at the sea-level in the southern hemisphere, in latitudes corresponding to that of England; but it is not supposed that similar effects were produced with us at the last cold period, 10,500 years ago, because we are exceptionally favoured, by the Gulf-stream warming the whole North Atlantic ocean and by the prevalence of westerly winds which convey that warmth to our shores; and also by the comparatively small quantity of high land around the North Pole which does not encourage great accumulations of ice. But besides this change in the relation of our seasons to the earth's aphelion and perihelion there is another and still more important astronomical factor in the change of magnitude of the excentricity itself. This varies very largely, though very slowly, and it is now nearly at a minimum. It also varies very irregularly; but its amount has been calculated for several million years back. Fifty thousand years ago it was rather less than it is now, but it then increased, and when we come to a hundred thousand years ago there is a difference of eight and a half millions of miles between our distance from the sun in aphelion and perihelion (as the most distant and nearest points of the earth's orbit are termed). At a hundred and fifty thousand years back it had decreased somewhat—to six millions of miles; but then it increased again, till at two hundred thousand years ago it was ten and a quarter, and at two hundred and ten thousand years ten and a half millions of miles. By reference to the accompanying diagram, which includes the last great period of excentricity, we find, that for the immense period of a hundred and sixty thousand years (commencing about eighty thousand years ago) the excentricity was very great, reaching a maximum of three and a half times its present amount at almost the remotest part of this period, at which time the length of summer in one hemisphere and of winter in the other would be nearly twenty-eight days in excess. Now, during all this time, our position would change, as above described (and as indicated on the diagram), every ten thousand five hundred years; so that we should have alternate periods of very long and cold winters with short hot summers, and short mild winters with long cool summers. In order to understand the important effects which this would produce we must ascertain two things—first, what actual difference of temperature would be caused by varying distances of the sun, and, secondly, what are the properties of snow and ice in regard to climate.

The dark and light bands mark the phases of precession, the dark showing short mild winters, and the light long cold winters, the contrast being greater as the excentricity is higher. The horizontal dotted line shows the amount of the present excentricity. The figures show the maxima and minima of excentricity during the last 300,000 years from Dr. Croll's Tables.]]

Differences of Temperature Caused by Varying Distances of the Sun.—On this subject comparatively few persons have correct ideas owing to the unscientific manner in which we reckon heat by our thermometers. The zero of Fahrenheit's thermometer is thirty-two degrees below the freezing point of water, and that of the centigrade thermometer, the freezing point itself, both of which are equally misleading when applied to cosmical problems. If we say that the mean temperature of a place is 50° F., or 10° C., these figures tell us nothing of how much the sun warms that place, because if the sun were withdrawn the temperature would fall far below either of the zero points. In the last Arctic Expedition a temperature of -74° F. was registered, or 106° below the freezing point of water; and as at the same time the earth, at a depth of two feet, was only, -13° F. and the sea water +28° F., both influencing the temperature of the air, we may be sure that even this intense cold was not near the possible minimum temperature. By various calculations and experiments which cannot be entered upon here, it has been determined that the temperature of space, independent of solar (but not of stellar) influence, is about -239° F., and physicists almost universally adopt this quantity in all estimates of cosmical temperature. It follows, that if the mean temperature of the earth's surface at any time is 50° F. it is really warmed by the sun to an amount measured by 50 + 239 = 289° F., which is hence termed its absolute temperature. Now during the time of the glacial epoch the greatest distance of the sun in winter was 98¼ millions of miles, whereas it is now, in winter, only 91½ millions of miles, the mean distance being taken as 93 million miles. But the quantity of heat received from the sun is inversely as the square of the distance, so that it would then be in the proportion of 8,372 to 9,613 now, or nearly one seventh less than its present amount. The mean temperature of England in January is about 37° F., which equals 276° F. of absolute temperature. But the above-named fraction of 276° is 237, the difference, 39, representing the amount which must be deducted to obtain the January temperature during the glacial epoch, which will therefore be -2° F. But this is a purely theoretic result. The actual temperature at that time might have been very different from this, because the temperature of a place does not depend so much on the amount of heat it receives directly from the sun, as on the amount brought to it or carried away from it by warm or cold winds. We often have it bitterly cold in the middle of May when we are receiving as much sun heat as many parts of the tropics, but we get cold winds from the iceberg-laden North Atlantic, and this largely neutralises the effect of the sun. So we often have it very mild in December if south-westerly winds bring us warm moist air from the Gulf-stream. But though the above method does not give correct results for any one time or place, it will be more nearly correct for very large areas, because all the sensible surface-heat which produces climates necessarily comes from the sun, and its proportionate amount may be very nearly calculated in the manner above described. We may therefore say, generally, that during our winter, at the time of the glacial epoch, the northern hemisphere was receiving so much less heat from the sun as was calculated to lower its surface temperature on an average about 39° F., while during the height of summer of the same period it would be receiving so much more heat as would suffice, other conditions being equal, to raise its mean temperature about 48° above what it is now. The winter, moreover, would be long and the summer short, the difference being twenty-six days.

We have here certainly an amount of cold in winter amply sufficient to produce a glacial period, especially as this cold would be long continued; but at the same time we should have almost tropical heat in summer, although that season would be somewhat shorter. How then, it may be asked, could such a climate have the effect supposed? Would not the snow that fell in winter be all melted by the excessively hot summer? In order to answer this question we must take account of certain properties of water and air, snow and ice, to which due weight has not been given by writers on this subject.

Properties of Air and Water, Snow and Ice, in Relation to Climate.—The great aerial ocean which surrounds us has the wonderful property of allowing the heat-rays from the sun to pass through it without its being warmed by them; but when the earth is heated the air gets warmed by contact with it, and also to a considerable extent by the heat radiated from the warm earth, because, although pure dry air allows such dark heat-rays to pass freely, yet the aqueous vapour and carbonic acid in the air intercept and absorb them. But the air thus warmed by the earth is in continual motion owing to changes of density. It rises up and flows off, owing to the greater weight of the cooler air which forces it up and takes its place; and thus heat can never accumulate in the atmosphere beyond a very moderate degree, the excessive sun-heat of the tropics being much of it carried away to the upper atmosphere and radiated into space. Water also is very mobile; and although it receives and stores up a great deal of heat, it is for ever dispersing it over the earth. The rain which brings down a certain portion of heat from the atmosphere, and which often absorbs heat from the earth on which it falls, flows away in streams to the ocean; while the ocean itself, constantly impelled by the winds, forms great currents, which carry off the surplus heated water of the tropics to the temperate and even to the polar regions, while colder water flows from the poles to ameliorate the heat of the tropics. An immense quantity of sun-heat is also used up in evaporating water, and the vapour thus produced is conveyed by the aerial currents to distant countries, where, on being condensed into rain, it gives up much of this heat to the earth and atmosphere.

The power of water in carrying away heat is well exhibited by the fact of the abnormally high temperature of arid deserts and of very dry countries generally; while the still more powerful influence of moving air may be appreciated, by considering the effects of even our northern sun in heating a tightly-closed glass house to far above the temperature produced by the vertical sun of the equator where the free air and abundance of moisture exert their beneficial influence. Were it not for the large proportion of the sun's heat carried away by air and water the tropics would become uninhabitable furnaces—as would indeed any part of the earth where the sun shone brightly throughout a summer's day.

We see, therefore, that the excess of heat derived from the sun at any place cannot be stored up to an important amount owing to the wonderful dispersing agency of air and water; and though some heat does penetrate the ground and is stored up there, this is so little in proportion to the whole amount received, and the larger part of it is so soon given out from the surface layers, that any surplus heat that may be thus preserved during one summer of the temperate zones rarely or never remains in sufficient quantity to affect the temperature of the succeeding summer, so that there is no such thing as an accumulation of earth-heat from year to year. But, though heat cannot, cold can be stored up to an almost unlimited amount, owing to the peculiar property water possesses of becoming solid at a moderately low temperature; and as this is a subject of the very greatest importance to our inquiry—the whole question of the possibility of glacial epochs and warm periods depending on it—we must consider it in some detail.

Effects of Snow on Climate.—Let us then examine the very different effects produced by water falling as a liquid in the form of rain, or as a solid in the form of snow, although the two may not differ from each other more than two or three degrees in temperature. The rain, however much of it may fall, runs off rapidly into streams and rivers, and soon reaches the ocean, a small portion only sinking into the earth and another portion evaporating into the atmosphere. If cold it cools the air and the earth somewhat while passing through or over them, but produces no permanent effect on temperature, because a few hours of sunshine restore to the air or the surface-soil all the heat they had lost. But if snow falls for a long time, the effect, as we all know, is very different, because it has no mobility. It remains where it fell and becomes compacted into a mass, and it then keeps the earth below it and the air above, at or near the freezing-point till it is all melted. If the quantity is great it may take days or weeks to melt; and if snow continues falling it goes on accumulating all over the surface of a country (which water cannot do), and may thus form such a mass that the warmth of the whole succeeding summer may not be able to melt it. It then produces perpetual snow, such as we find above a certain altitude on all the great mountains of the globe; and when this takes place cold is rendered permanent, no amount of sun-heat warming the air or the earth much above the freezing-point. This is illustrated by the often-quoted fact that, at 80° N. Lat., Captain Scoresby had the pitch melted on one side of his ship by the heat of the sun, while water was freezing on the other side owing to the coldness of the air.

The quantity of heat required to melt ice or snow is very great, as we all know by experience of the long time masses of snow will remain unmelted even in warm weather. We shall however be better able to appreciate the great effect this has upon climate, by a few figures showing what this amount really is. In order to melt one cubic foot of ice, as much heat is required as would heat a cubic foot of water from the freezing point to 176° F., or two cubic feet to 88° F. To melt a layer of ice a foot thick will therefore use up as much heat as would raise a layer of ice-cold water two feet thick to the temperature of 88° F.; and the effect becomes still more easily understood if we estimate it as applied to air, for to melt a layer of ice only 1½ inches thick would require as much heat as would raise a stratum of air 800 feet thick from the freezing point to the tropical heat of 88° F.! We thus obtain a good idea, both of the wonderful power of snow and ice in keeping down temperature, and also of the reason why it requires so long a time to melt away, and is able to go on accumulating to such an extent as to become permanent. These properties would, however, be of no avail if it were liquid, like water; hence it is the state of solidity and almost complete immobility of ice that enables it to produce by its accumulation such extraordinary effects in physical geography and in climate, as we see in the glaciers of Switzerland and the ice-capped interior of Greenland.

High Land and great Moisture Essential to the Initiation of a Glacial Epoch.—Another point of great importance in connection with this subject, is the fact, that this permanent storing up of cold depends entirely on the annual amount of snow-fall in proportion to that of the sun and air-heat, and not on the actual cold of winter, or even on the average cold of the year. A place may be intensely cold in winter and may have a short arctic summer, yet, if so little snow falls that it is quickly melted by the returning sun, there is nothing to prevent the summer being hot and the earth producing a luxuriant vegetation. As an example of this we have great forests in the extreme north of Asia and America where the winters are colder and the summers shorter than in Greenland in Lat. 62° N., or than in Heard Island and South Georgia, both in Lat. 53° S. in the Southern Ocean, and almost wholly covered with perpetual snow and ice. At the "Jardin" on the Mount Blanc range, above the line of perpetual snow, a thermometer in an exposed situation marked -6° F. as the lowest winter temperature: while in many parts of Siberia mercury freezes during several weeks in winter, showing a temperature below -40° F.; yet here the summers are hot, all the snow disappears, and there is a luxuriant vegetation. Even in the very highest latitudes reached by our last Arctic Expedition there is very little perpetual snow or ice, for Captain Nares tells us that north of Haye's Sound, in Lat. 79° N., the mountains were remarkably free from ice-cap, while extensive tracts of land were free from snow during summer, and covered with a rich vegetation with abundance of bright flowers. The reason of this is evidently the scanty snow-fall, which rendered it sometimes difficult to obtain enough to form shelter-banks around the ships; and this was north of 80° N. Lat., where the sun was absent for 142 days.

Perpetual Snow Nowhere Exists on Lowland Areas.—It is a very remarkable and most suggestive fact, that nowhere in the world at the present time are there any extensive lowlands covered with perpetual snow. The Tundras of Siberia and the barren grounds of N. America are all clothed with some kind of summer vegetation; and it is only where there are lofty mountains or plateaus—as in Greenland, Spitzbergen, and Grinnell's Land—that glaciers, accompanied by perpetual snow, cover the country, and descend in places to the level of the sea. In the Antarctic regions there are extensive highlands and lofty mountains, and these are everywhere exposed to the influence of moist sea-air; and it is here, accordingly, that we find the nearest approach to a true ice-cap covering the whole circumference of the Antarctic continent, and forming a girdle of ice-cliffs which almost everywhere descend to the sea. Such Antarctic islands as South Georgia, South Shetland, and Heard Island, are often said to have perpetual snow at sea-level; but they are all very mountainous, and send down glaciers into the sea, and as they are exposed to moist sea-air on every side, the precipitation, almost all of which takes the form of snow even in summer, is of course unusually large.

That high land in an area of great precipitation is the necessary condition of glaciation, is well shown by the general state of the two polar areas at the present time. The northern part of the north temperate zone is almost all land, mostly low but with elevated borders; while the polar area is, with the exception of Greenland and a few other considerable islands, almost all water. In the southern hemisphere the temperate zone is almost all water, while the polar area is almost all land, or is at least inclosed by a ring of high and mountainous land. The result is that in the north the polar area is free from any accumulation of permanent ice (except on the highlands of Greenland and Grinnell's Land), while in the south a complete barrier of ice of enormous thickness appears to surround the pole. Dr. Croll shows, from the measured height of numerous Antarctic icebergs (often miles in length) that the ice-sheet from which they are the broken outer fragments must be from a mile to a mile and a half in thickness. As this is the thickness of the outer edge of the ice it must be far thicker inland; and we thus find that the Antarctic continent is at this very time suffering glaciation to quite as great an extent as we have reason to believe occurred in the same latitudes of the northern hemisphere during the last glacial epoch.

The accompanying diagrams show the comparative state of the two polar areas both as regards the distribution of land and sea, and the extent of the ice-sheet and floating icebergs. The much greater quantity of ice at the south pole is undoubtedly due to the presence of a large extent of high land, which acts as a condenser, and an unbroken surrounding ocean, which affords a constant supply of vapour; and the effect is intensified by winter being there in aphelion, and thus several days longer than with us, while the whole southern hemisphere is at that time farther from the sun, and therefore receives less heat.

We see, however, that with less favourable conditions for the production and accumulation of ice, Greenland is glaciated down to Lat. 61°. What, then, would be the effect if the Antarctic continent, instead of being confined almost wholly within the south polar circle, were to extend in one or two great mountainous promontories far into the temperate zone? The comparatively small Heard Island in S. Lat. 53° is even now glaciated down to the sea. What would be its condition were it a northerly extension of a lofty Antarctic continent? We may be quite sure that glaciation would then be far more severe, and that an ice-sheet corresponding to that of Greenland might extend to beyond the parallel of 50° S. Lat. Even this is probably much too low an estimate, for on the west coast of New Zealand in S. Lat. 43° 35′ a glacier even now descends to within 705 feet of the sea-level; and if those islands were the northern extension of an Antarctic continent, we may be pretty sure that they would be nearly in the ice-covered condition of Greenland, although situated in the latitude of Marseilles.

Conditions Determining the Presence or Absence of Perpetual Snow.—It is clear, then, that the vicinity of a sea or ocean to supply moisture, together with high land to serve as a condenser of that moisture into snow, are the prime essentials of a great accumulation of ice; and it is fully in accordance with this view that we find the most undoubted signs of extensive glaciation in the west of Europe and the east of North America, both washed by the Atlantic and both having abundance of high land to condense the moisture which it supplies. Without these conditions cold alone, however great, can produce no glacial epoch. This is strikingly shown by the fact, that in the very coldest portions of the two northern continents—Eastern Siberia and the north-western shores of Hudson's Bay—there is no perennial covering of snow or ice whatever. No less remarkable is the coincidence of the districts of greatest glaciation with those of greatest rainfall at the present time. Looking at a rain-map of the British Isles, we see that the greatest area of excessive rainfall is the Highlands of Scotland, then follows the west of Ireland, Wales, and the north of England; and these were glaciated pretty nearly in proportion to the area of country over which there is an abundant supply of moisture. So in Europe, the Alps and the Scandinavian mountains have excessive rainfall, and have been areas of excessive glaciation, while the Ural and Caucasian mountains, with less rain, never seem to have been proportionally glaciated. In North America the eastern coast has an abundant rainfall, and New England with North-eastern Canada seems to have been the source of much of the glaciation of that continent.

The reason why no accumulation of snow or ice ever takes place on Arctic lowlands is explained by the observations of Lieut. Payer of the Austrian Polar Expedition, who found that during the short Arctic summer of the highest latitudes the ice-fields diminished four feet in thickness under the influence of the sun and wind. To replace this would require a precipitation of snow equivalent to about 45 inches of rain, an amount which rarely occurs in lowlands out of the tropics. In Siberia, within and near the Arctic circle, about six feet of snow covers the country all the winter and spring, and is not sensibly diminished by the powerful sun so long as northerly winds keep the air below the freezing-point and occasional snow-storms occur. But early in June the wind usually changes to southerly, probably the south-western anti-trades overcoming the northern inflow; and under its influence the snow all disappears in a few days and the vegetable kingdom bursts into full luxuriance. This is very important as showing the impotence of mere sun-heat to get rid of a thick mass of snow so long as the air remains cold, while currents of warm air are in the highest degree effective. If, however, they are not of sufficiently high temperature or do not last long enough to melt the snow, they are likely to increase it, from the quantity of moisture they bring with them which will be condensed into snow by coming into contact with the frozen surface. We may therefore expect the transition from perpetual snow to a luxuriant arctic vegetation to be very abrupt, depending as it must on a few degrees more or less in the summer temperature of the air; and this is quite in accordance with the fact of corn ripening by the sides of alpine glaciers.

Efficiency of Astronomical Causes in Producing Glaciation.—Having now collected a sufficient body of facts, let us endeavour to ascertain what would be the state to which the northern hemisphere would be reduced by a high degree of excentricity and a winter in aphelion. When the glacial epoch is supposed to have been at its maximum, about 210,000 years ago, the excentricity was more than three times as great as it is now, and, according to Dr. Croll's calculations, the mid-winter temperature of the northern hemisphere would have been lowered 36° F., while the winter half of the year would have been twenty-six days longer than the summer half. This would bring the January mean temperature of England and Scotland almost down to zero or about 30° F. of frost, a winter climate corresponding to that of Labrador, or the coast of Greenland on the Arctic circle. But we must remember that the summer would be very much hotter than it is now, and the problem to be solved is, whether, supposing the geography of the northern hemisphere to have been identical with what it is now, the snow that fell in winter would accumulate to such an extent that it would not be melted in summer, and so go on increasing year by year till it covered the whole of Scotland, Ireland, and Wales, and much of England. Dr. Croll and Dr. Geikie answer that it would. Sir Charles Lyell maintained that it would only do so if geographical conditions were then more favourable than they are now; while the late Mr. Belt has argued, that excentricity alone would not produce the effect unless aided by increased obliquity of the ecliptic, which, by extending the width of the polar regions, would increase the duration and severity of the winter to such an extent that snow and ice would be formed in the Arctic and Antarctic regions at the same time whether the winter were in perihelion or aphelion.

The problem we have now to solve is a very difficult one, because we have no case at all parallel to it from which we can draw direct conclusions. It is, however, clear from the various considerations we have already adduced, that the increased cold of winter when the excentricity was great and the sun in aphelion during that season, would not of itself produce a glacial epoch unless the amount of vapour supplied for condensation was also exceptionally great. The greatest quantity of snow falls in the Arctic regions in summer and autumn, and with us the greatest quantity of rain falls in the autumnal months. It seems probable, then, that in all northern lands glaciation would commence when autumn occurred in aphelion. All the rain which falls on our mountains at that season would then fall as snow, and, being further increased by the snow of winter, would form accumulations which the summer might not be able to melt. As time went on, and the aphelion occurred in winter, the perennial snow on the mountains would have accumulated to such an extent as to chill the spring and summer vapours, so that they too would fall as snow, and thus increase the amount of deposition; but it is probable that this would never in our latitudes have been sufficient to produce glaciation, were it not for a series of climatal reactions which tend still further to increase the production of snow.

Action of Meteorological Causes in intensifying Glaciation.—The trade-winds owe their existence to the great difference between the temperature of the equator and the poles, which causes a constant flow of air towards the equator. The strength of this flow depends on the difference of temperature and the extent of the cooled and heated masses of air, and this effect is now greatest between the south pole and the equator, owing to the much greater accumulation of ice in the Antarctic regions. The consequence is, that the south-east trades are stronger than the north-east, the neutral zone or belt of calms between them not being on the equator but several degrees to the north of it. But just in proportion to the strength of the trade-winds is the strength of the anti-trades, that is, the upper return current which carries the warm moisture-laden air of the tropics towards the poles, descending in the temperate zone as west and south-west winds. These are now strongest in the southern hemisphere, and, passing everywhere over a wide ocean, they supply the moisture necessary to produce the enormous quantity of snow which falls in the Antarctic area. During the period we are now discussing, however, this state of things would have been partially reversed. The south polar area, having its winter in perihelion, would probably have had less ice, while the north-temperate and Arctic regions would have been largely ice-clad; and the north-east trades would therefore be stronger than they are now. The south-westerly anti-trades would also be stronger in the same proportion, and would bring with them a greatly increased quantity of moisture, which is the prime necessity to produce a condition of glaciation.

But this is only one-half of the effect that would be produced, for the increased force of the trades sets up another action which still further helps on the accumulation of snow and ice. It is now generally admitted that we owe much of our mild climate and our comparative freedom from snow to the influence of the Gulf Stream, which also ameliorates the climate of Scandinavia and Spitzbergen, as shown by the remarkable northward curvature of the isothermal lines, so that Drontheim in N. Lat. 62° has the same mean temperature as Halifax (Nova Scotia) in N. Lat. 45°. The quantity of heat now brought into the North Atlantic by the Gulf Stream depends mainly on the superior strength of the south-east trades. When the north-east trades were the more powerful, the Gulf Stream would certainly be of much less magnitude and velocity; while it is possible, as Dr. Croll thinks, that a large portion of it might be diverted southward owing to the peculiar form of the east coast of South America, and so go to swell the Brazilian current and ameliorate the climate of the southern hemisphere.

That effects of this nature would follow from any increase of the Arctic, and decrease of the Antarctic ice, may be considered certain; and Dr. Croll has clearly shown that in this case cause and effect act and react on each other in a remarkable way. The increase of snow and ice in the northern hemisphere is the cause of an increased supply of moisture being brought by the more powerful anti-trades, and this greater supply of moisture leads to an extension of the ice, which reacts in still further increasing the supply of moisture. The same increase of snow and ice, by causing the north-east to be stronger than the south-east trade-winds, diminishes the force of the Gulf Stream, and this diminution lowers the temperature of the North Atlantic both in summer and winter, and thus helps on still further the formation and perpetuation of the icy mantle. It must also be remembered that these agencies are at the same time acting in a reverse way in the southern hemisphere, diminishing the supply of the moisture carried by the anti-trades, and increasing the temperature by means of more powerful southward ocean-currents;—and all this again reacts on the northern hemisphere, increasing yet further the supply of moisture by the more powerful south-westerly winds, while still further lowering the temperature by the southward diversion of the Gulf Stream.

Summary of Principal Causes of Glaciation.—I have now sufficiently answered the question, why the short hot summer would not melt the snow which accumulated during the long cold winter (produced by high excentricity and winter in aphelion), although the annual amount of heat received from the sun was exactly the same as it is now, and equal in the two hemispheres. It may be well, before going further, briefly to summarise the essential causes of this apparent paradox. These are—primarily, the fact that solar heat cannot be stored up owing to its being continually carried away by air and water, while cold can be so stored up owing to the comparative immobility of snow and ice; and, in the second place, because the two great heat-distributing agencies, the winds and the ocean-currents, are so affected by an increase of the snow and ice towards one pole and its diminution towards the other, as to help on the process when it has once begun, and by their action and reaction produce a maximum of effect which, without their aid, would be altogether unattainable.

But even this does not exhaust the causes at work, all tending in one direction. Snow and ice reflect heat to a much greater degree than do land or water. The heat, therefore, of the short summer would have far less effect than is due to its calculated amount in melting the snow, because so much of it would be lost by reflection. A portion of the reflected heat would no doubt warm the vapour in the atmosphere, but this heat would be carried off to other parts of the earth, while a considerable portion of the whole would be lost in space. It must also be remembered that an enormous quantity of heat is used up in melting snow and ice, without raising its temperature; each cubic foot of ice requiring as much heat to melt it as would raise nearly six cubic feet of water 30° F. It has, however, been argued that because when water is frozen it evolves just as much heat as it requires to melt it again, there is no loss of heat on the whole; and as this is adduced over and over again as a valid argument in every criticism of Dr. Croll's theory, it may be well to consider it a little more closely. In the act of freezing no doubt water gives up some of its heat to the surrounding air; but that air still remains below the freezing point or freezing would not take place. The heat liberated by freezing is, therefore, what may be termed low-grade heat—heat incapable of melting snow or ice; while the heat absorbed while ice or snow is melting is high-grade heat, such as is capable of melting snow and supporting vegetable growth. Moreover, the low-grade heat liberated in the formation of snow is usually liberated high up in the atmosphere, where it may be carried off by winds to more southern latitudes, while the heat absorbed in melting the surface of snow and ice is absorbed close to the earth and is thus prevented from warming the lower atmosphere, which is in contact with vegetation. The two phenomena, therefore, by no means counterbalance or counteract each other, as it is so constantly and superficially asserted that they do.

Effect of Clouds and Fog in cutting off the Sun's Heat.—Another very important cause of diminution of heat during summer in a glaciated country would be the intervention of clouds and fogs, which would reflect or absorb a large proportion of the sun-heat and prevent it reaching the surface of the earth; and such a cloudy atmosphere would be a necessary result of large areas of high land covered with snow and ice. That such a prevalence of fogs and cloud is an actual fact in all ice-clad countries has been shown by Dr. Croll most conclusively, and he has further shown that the existence of perpetual snow often depends upon it. South Georgia in the latitude of Yorkshire is almost, and Sandwich Land in the latitude of the north of Scotland, is entirely covered with perpetual snow; yet in their summer the sun is three million miles nearer the earth than it is in our summer, and the heat actually received from the sun must be sufficient to raise the temperature 20° F. higher than in the same latitudes in the northern hemisphere, were the conditions equal—instead of which their summer temperature is probably full 20° lower. The chief cause of this can only be that the heat of the sun does not reach the surface of the earth; and that this is the fact is testified by all Antarctic voyagers. Darwin notes the cloudy sky and constant moisture of the southern part of Chile, and in his remarks on the climate and productions of the Antarctic islands he says: "In the Southern Ocean the winter is not so excessively cold, but the summer is far less hot (than in the north), for the clouded sky seldom allows the sun to warm the ocean, itself a bad absorbent of heat; and hence the mean temperature of the year, which regulates the zone of perpetually congealed under-soil, is low." Sir James Ross, Lieutenant Wilkes, and other Antarctic voyagers speak of the snow-storms, the absence of sunshine, and the freezing temperature in the height of summer; and Dr. Croll shows that this is a constant phenomenon accompanying the presence of large masses of ice in every part of the world.

In reply to the objections of a recent critic Dr. Croll has given a new proof of this important fact by comparing the known amount of snow-fall with the equally well-known melting power of direct sun-heat in different latitudes. He says: "The annual precipitation on Greenland in the form of snow and rain, according to Dr. Rink, amounts to only twelve inches, and two inches of this he considers is never melted, but is carried away in the form of icebergs. The quantity of heat received at the equator from sunrise to sunset, if none were cut off by the atmosphere, would melt 3⅓ inches of ice, or 100 feet in a year. The quantity received between latitude 60° and 80°, which is that of Greenland, is, according to Meech, one-half that received at the equator. The heat received by Greenland from the sun, if none were cut off by the atmosphere, would therefore melt fifty feet of ice per annum, or fifty times the amount of snow which falls on that continent. What then cuts off the ninety-eight per cent of the sun's heat?" The only possible answer is, that it is the clouds and fog during a great part of the summer, and reflection from the surface of the snow and ice when these are absent.

South Temperate America as Illustrating the Influence of Astronomical Causes on Climate.—Those persons who still doubt the effect of winter in aphelion with a high degree of excentricity in producing glaciation, should consider how the condition of south temperate America at the present day is explicable if they reject this agency. The line of perpetual snow in the Southern Andes is so low as 6,000 feet in the same latitude as the Pyrenees; in the latitude of the Swiss Alps mountains only 6,200 feet high produce immense glaciers which descend to the sea-level; while in the latitude of Cumberland mountains only from 3,000 to 4,000 feet high have every valley filled with streams of ice descending to the sea-coast and giving off abundance of huge icebergs. Here we have exactly the condition of things to which England and Western Europe were subjected during the latter portion of the glacial epoch, when every valley in Wales, Cumberland, and Scotland had its glacier; and to what can this state of things be imputed if not to the fact that there is now a moderate amount of excentricity, and the winter of the southern hemisphere is in aphelion? The mere geographical position of the southern extremity of America does not seem especially favourable to the production of such a state of glaciation. The land narrows from the tropics southwards and terminates altogether in about the latitude of Edinburgh; the mountains are of moderate height; while during summer the sun is three millions of miles nearer, and the heat received from it is equivalent to a rise of 20° F. as compared with the same season in the northern hemisphere. The only important differences are: the open southern ocean, the longer and colder winter, and the general low temperature caused by the south polar ice. But the great accumulation of south polar ice is itself due to the great extent of high land within the Antarctic circle acted upon by the long cold winter and furnished with moisture by the surrounding wide ocean. These conditions of high land and open ocean we know did not prevail to so great an extent in the northern hemisphere during the glacial epoch, as they do in the southern hemisphere at the present time; but the other acting cause—the long cold winter—existed in a far higher degree, owing to the excentricity being about three times as much as it is now. It is, so far as we know or are justified in believing, the only efficient cause of glaciation which was undoubtedly much more powerful at that time; and we are therefore compelled to accept it as the most probable cause of the much greater glaciation which then prevailed.

Geographical Changes, how far a Cause of Glaciation.—Messrs. Croll and Geikie have both objected to the views of Sir Charles Lyell as to the preponderating influence of the distribution of land and sea on climate; and they maintain that if the land were accumulated almost wholly in the equatorial regions, the temperature of the earth's surface as a whole would be lowered, not raised, as Sir Charles Lyell maintained. The reason given is, that the land being heated heats the air, which rises and thus gives off much of the heat to space, while the same area covered with water would retain more of the heat, and by means of currents carry it to other parts of the earth's surface. But although the mean temperature of the whole earth might be somewhat lowered by such a disposition of the land, there can be little doubt that it would render all extremes of temperature impossible, and that even during a period of high excentricity there would be no glacial epochs, and perhaps no such thing as ice anywhere produced. This would result from there being no land near the poles to retain snow, while the constant interchange of water by means of currents between the polar and tropical regions would most likely prevent ice from ever forming in the sea. On the other hand, were all the land accumulated in the polar and temperate regions there can be little doubt that a state of almost perpetual glaciation of much of the land would result, notwithstanding that the whole earth should theoretically be at a somewhat higher temperature. Two main causes would bring about this glaciation. A very large area of elevated land in high latitudes would act as a powerful condenser of the enormous quantity of vapour produced by the whole of the equatorial and much of the temperate regions being areas of evaporation, and thus a greater accumulation of snow and ice would take place around both poles than would be possible under any other conditions. In the second place there would be little or no check to this accumulation of ice, because, owing to the quantity of land around the polar areas, warm oceanic currents could not reach them, while the warm winds would necessarily bring so much moisture that they would help on instead of checking the process of ice-accumulation. If we suppose the continents to be of the same total area and to have the same extent and altitude of mountain ranges as the present ones, these mountains must necessarily offer an almost continuous barrier to the vapour-bearing winds from the south, and the result would probably be that three-fourths of the land would be in the ice-clad condition of Greenland, while a comparatively narrow belt of the more southern lowlands would alone afford habitable surfaces or produce any woody vegetation.

Notwithstanding, therefore, the criticism above referred to, I believe that Sir Charles Lyell was substantially right, and that the two ideal maps given in the Principles of Geology (11th ed. Vol. i. p. 270), if somewhat modified so as to allow a freer passage of currents in the tropics, do really exhibit a condition of the earth which, by geographical changes alone, would bring about a perpetual summer or an almost universal winter. But we have seen in our sixth chapter that there is the strongest cumulative evidence, almost amounting to demonstration, that for all known geological periods our continents and oceans have occupied the same general position they do now, and that no such radical changes in the distribution of sea and land as imagined by way of hypothesis by Sir Charles Lyell, have ever occurred. Such an hypothesis, however, is not without its use in our present inquiry, for if we obtain thereby a clear conception of the influence of such great changes on climate, we are the better able to appreciate the tendency of lesser changes such as have undoubtedly often occurred.

Land as a Barrier to Ocean Currents.—We have seen already the great importance of elevated land to serve as condensers and ice-accumulators; but there is another and hardly less important effect that may be produced by an extension of land in high latitudes, which is, to act as a barrier to the flow of ocean currents. In the region with which we are more immediately interested it is easy to see how a comparatively slight alteration of land and sea, such as has undoubtedly occurred, would produce an enormous effect on climate. Let us suppose, for instance, that the British Isles again became continental, and that this continental land extended across the Färoe Islands and Iceland to Greenland. The whole of the warm waters of the Atlantic, with the Gulf Stream, would then be shut out from Northern Europe, and the result would almost certainly be that snow would accumulate on the high mountains of Scandinavia till they became glaciated to as great an extent as Greenland, and the cold thus produced would react on our own country and cover the Grampians with perpetual snow, like mountains of the same height at even a lower latitude in South America.

If a similar change were to occur on the opposite side of the Atlantic very different effects would be produced. Suppose, for instance, the east side of Greenland were to sink considerably, while on the west the sea bottom were to rise in Davis' Strait so as to unite Greenland with Baffin's Land, thus stopping altogether the cold Arctic current with its enormous stream of icebergs from the west coast of Greenland. Such a change might cause a great accumulation of ice in the higher polar latitudes, but it would certainly produce a wonderful ameliorating effect on the climate of the east coast of North America, and might raise the temperature of Labrador to that of Scotland. Now these two changes have almost certainly occurred, either together or separately, during the Tertiary period, and they must have had a considerable effect either in aiding or checking the action of the terrestrial and astronomical causes affecting climate which were then in operation.

It would be easy to suggest other probable changes which would produce a marked effect on climate; but we will only refer to the subsidence of the Isthmus of Panama, which has certainly happened more than once in Tertiary times. If this subsidence were considerable it would have allowed much of the accumulated warm water which initiates the Gulf Stream to pass into the Pacific; and if this occurred while astronomical causes were tending to bring about a cold period in the northern hemisphere, the resulting glaciation might be exceptionally severe. The effect of this change would however be neutralised if at the same epoch the Lesser and Greater Antilles formed a connected land.

Now, as such possible and even probable geographical changes are very numerous, they must have produced important effects; and though we may admit that the astronomical causes already explained were the most important in determining the last glacial epoch, we must also allow that geographical changes must often have had an equally important and perhaps even a preponderating influence on climate. We must also remember that changes of land and sea are almost always accompanied by elevation or depression of the pre-existing land: and whereas the former produces its chief effect by diverting the course of warm or cold oceanic currents, the latter is of not less importance in adding to or diminishing those areas of condensation and ice-accumulation which, as we have seen, are the most efficient agents in producing glaciation.

If then Sir Charles Lyell may have somewhat erred in attaching too exclusive an importance to geographical changes as bringing about mutations of climate, his critics have, I think, attached far too little importance to these changes. We know that they have always been in progress to a sufficient extent to produce important climatal effects; and we shall probably be nearest the truth if we consider, that great extremes of cold have only occurred when astronomical and geographical causes were acting in the same direction and thus produced a cumulative result, while, through the agency of warm oceanic currents, the latter alone have been the chief cause of mild climates in high latitudes, as we shall attempt to prove in our next chapter.

On the Theory of Inter-glacial Periods and their Probable Character.—The theory by which the glacial epoch is here explained is one which apparently necessitates repeated changes from glacial to warm periods, with all the consequences and modifications both of climate and physical geography which follow or accompany such changes. It is essentially a theory of alternation; and it is certainly remarkable in how many cases geologists have independently deduced some alternations of climate as probable. Such are the interglacial deposits indicating a mild climate, both in Europe and America; an early phase of very severe glaciation when the "till" was deposited, with later less extensive glaciation when moraines were left in the valleys; several successive periods of submergence and elevation, the later ones becoming less and less in amount, as indicated by the raised beaches slightly elevated above our present coast line; and lastly, the occurrence in the same deposits of animal remains indicating both a warm and a cold climate, and especially the existence of the hippopotamus in Yorkshire not long after the period of extreme glaciation.

But although the evidence of some alternations of climate seems indisputable, and no suggestion of any adequate cause for them other than the alternating phases of precession during high excentricity has been made, it by no means follows that these changes were always very great—that is to say, that the ice completely disappeared and a warm climate prevailed throughout the whole year. It is quite evident that during the height of the glacial epoch there was a combination of causes at work which led to a large portion of North-western Europe and Eastern America being buried in ice to a greater extent even than Greenland is now, since it certainly extended beyond the land and filled up all the shallow seas between our islands and Scandinavia. Among these causes we must reckon a diminution of the force of the Gulf Stream, or its being diverted from the north-western coasts of Europe; and what we have to consider is, whether the alteration from a long cold winter and short hot summer to a short mild winter and long cool summer would greatly affect the amount of ice if the ocean currents remained the same. The force of these currents is, it is true, by our hypothesis, modified by the increase or diminution of the ice in the two hemispheres alternately, and they then react upon climate; but they cannot be thus changed till after the ice-accumulation has been considerably affected by other causes. Their direction may, indeed, be greatly changed by slight alterations in the outline of the land, while they may be barred out altogether by other alterations of not very great amount; but such changes as these have no relation to the alteration of climates caused by the changing phases of precession.

Now, the existence at the present time of an ice-clad Greenland is an anomaly in the northern hemisphere, only to be explained by the fact that cold currents from the polar area flow down both sides of it. In Eastern Asia we have the lofty Stanivoi Mountains in the same latitude as the southern part of Greenland, which, though their summits are covered with perpetual snow, give rise to no ice-sheet, and, apparently, even to no important glaciers;—a fact undoubtedly connected with the warm Japan current flowing partially into the Sea of Okhotsk. So in North-west America we have the lofty coast range, culminating in Mt. St. Elias, nearly 15,000 feet high, and an extensive tract of high land to the north and north-west, with glaciers comparable in size with those of New Zealand, although situated in Lat. 60° instead of in Lat. 45°. Here, too, we have the main body of the Japan current turning east and south, and thus producing a mild climate, little inferior to that of Norway, warmed by the Gulf Stream. We thus have it made clear that could the two Arctic currents be diverted from Greenland, that country would become free from ice, and might even be completely forest-clad and inhabitable; while, if the Japan current were to be diverted from the coast of North America and a cold current come out of Behring's Strait, the entire northwestern extremity of America would even now become buried in ice.

Now it is the opinion of the best American geologists that during the height of the glacial epoch North-eastern America was considerably elevated. This elevation would bring the wide area of the banks of Newfoundland far above water, causing the American coast to stretch out in an immense curve to a point more than 600 miles east of Halifax; and this would certainly divert much of the greatly reduced Gulf Stream straight across to the coast of Spain. The consequence of such a state of things would probably be that the southward flowing Arctic currents would be much reduced in velocity; and the enormous quantity of icebergs continually produced by the ice-sheets of all the lands bordering the North Atlantic would hang about their shores and the adjacent seas, filling them with a dense ice-pack, equalling that of the Antarctic regions, and chilling the atmosphere so as to produce constant clouds and fog with almost perpetual snowstorms, even at midsummer, such as now prevail in the worst portions of the Southern Ocean.

But when such was the state of the North Atlantic (and, however caused, such must have been its state during the height of the glacial epoch), can we suppose that the mere change from the distant sun in winter and near sun in summer, to the reverse, could bring about any important alteration—the physical and geographical causes of glaciation remaining unchanged? For, certainly, the less powerful sun of summer, even though lasting somewhat longer, could not do more than the much more powerful sun did during the phase of summer in perihelion, while during the less severe winters the sun would have far less power than when it was equally near and at a very much greater altitude in summer. It seems to me, therefore, quite certain that whenever extreme glaciation has been brought about by high excentricity combined with favourable geographical and physical causes (and without this combination it is doubtful whether extreme glaciation would ever occur), then the ice-sheet will not be removed during the alternate phases of precession, so long as these geographical and physical causes remain unaltered. It is true that the warm and cold oceanic currents, which are the most important agents in increasing or diminishing glaciation, depend for their strength and efficiency upon the comparative extents of the northern and southern ice-sheets; but these ice-sheets cannot, I believe, increase or diminish to any important extent unless some geographical or physical change first occurs.

If this argument is valid, then it would follow that, so long as excentricity was high, whatever condition of climate was brought about by it in combination with geographical causes, would persist through several phases of precession; but this would not necessarily be the case when the excentricity itself changed, and became more moderate. It would then depend upon the proportionate effect of climatal and geographical causes in producing glaciation as to what change would be produced by the changing phases of precession; and we can best examine this question by considering the probable effect of the change in precession during the next period of 10,500 years, with the present moderate degree of excentricity.

Probable Effect of Winter in Aphelion on the Climate of Britain.—Let us then suppose the winters of the northern hemisphere to become longer and much colder, the summers being proportionately shorter and hotter, without any other change whatever. The long cold winter would certainly bring down the snow-line considerably, covering large areas of high land with snow during the winter months, and causing all glaciers and ice-fields to become larger. This would chill the superincumbent atmosphere to such an extent that the warm sun and winds of spring and early summer would bring clouds and fog, so that the sun-heat would be cut off and much vapour be condensed as snow. The greater sun-heat of summer would no doubt considerably reduce the snow and ice; but it is, I think, quite certain that the extra accumulation would not be all melted, and that therefore the snow-line would be permanently lowered. This would be a necessary result, because the greater part of the increased cold of winter would be stored up in snow and ice, while the increased heat of summer could not be in any way stored up, but would be largely prevented from producing any effect, by reflection from the surface of the snow and by the intervention of clouds and fog which would carry much of the heat they received to other regions. It follows that 10,000 years hence, when our winter will occur in aphelion (instead of, as now, in perihelion), there will be produced a colder climate, independently of any change of land and sea, of heights of mountains, or in the force of oceanic currents.

But if this is true, then the reverse change, bringing the sun back into exactly the same position with regard to us as it is in now (all geographical and physical conditions remaining unchanged), would certainly bring back again our present milder climate. The change either way would not probably be very great, but it might be sufficient to bring the snow-line down to 3,000 feet in Scotland, so that all the higher mountains would have their tops covered with perpetual snow. This perpetual snow, down to a fixed line, would be kept up by the needful supply of snow falling during autumn, winter, and spring, and this would, as we have seen, depend mainly on the increased length and greatly increased cold of the winter. As both the duration and the cold of winter decreased the amount of snow would certainly decrease, and of this lesser quantity of snow a larger proportion would be melted by the longer, though somewhat cooler summer. This would follow because the total amount of sun-heat received during the summer would be the same as before, while it would act on a less quantity of snow; there would thus be a smaller surface to reflect the heat, and a smaller condensing area to produce fogs, while the diminished intensity of the sun would produce a less dense canopy of clouds, which have been shown to be of prime importance in checking the melting of snow by the sun. We have considered this case, for simplicity of reasoning, on the supposition that all geographical and physical causes remained unchanged. But if an alteration of the climate of the whole north temperate and Arctic zones occurred, as here indicated, this would certainly affect both the winds and currents, in the manner already explained (see p. 142), so as to react upon climate and increase the differences produced by phases of precession. How far that effect would be again increased by corresponding but opposite changes in the southern hemisphere it is impossible to say. It may be that existing geographical and physical conditions are there such potent agents in producing a state of glaciation that no change in the phases of precession would materially affect it. Still, as the climate of the whole southern hemisphere is dominated by the great mass of ice within the Antarctic circle, it seems probable that if the winter were shorter and the summer longer the quantity of ice would slightly diminish; and this would again react on the northern climate as already fully explained.

The Essential Principle of Climatal Change Restated.—The preceding discussion has been somewhat lengthy, owing to the varied nature of the facts and arguments adduced, and the extreme complexity of the subject. But if, as I venture to urge, the principle here laid down is a sound one, it will be of the greatest assistance in clearing away some of the many difficulties that beset the whole question of geological climates. This principle is, briefly, that the great features of climate are determined by a combination of causes, of which geographical conditions and the degree of excentricity of the earth's orbit are by far the most important; that, when these combine to produce a severe glacial epoch, the changing phases of precession every 10,500 years have very little, if any, effect on the character of the climate, as mild or glacial, though it may modify the seasons; but when the excentricity becomes moderate and the resulting glaciation less severe, then the changing phases of precession bring about a considerable alteration, and even a partial reversal of the glacial conditions.

The reason of this may perhaps be made clearer by considering the stability of either extreme glacial conditions or the entire absence of perpetual ice and snow, and the comparative instability of an intermediate state of climate. When a country is largely covered with ice, we may look upon it as possessing the accumulated or stored-up cold of a long series of preceding winters; and however much heat is poured upon it, its temperature cannot be raised above the freezing point till that store of cold is got rid of—that is, till the ice is all melted. But the ice itself, when extensive, tends to its own preservation, even under the influence of heat; for the chilled atmosphere becomes filled with fog, and this keeps off the sun-heat, and then snow falls even during summer, and the stored-up cold does not diminish during the year. When, however, only a small portion of the surface is covered with ice, the exposed earth becomes heated by the hot sun, this warms the air, and the warm air melts the adjacent ice. It follows, that towards the equatorial limits of a glaciated country alternations of climate may occur during a period of high excentricity, while nearer the pole, where the surface is almost completely ice-clad, no amelioration may take place. The same argument will, to some extent apply, inversely, with mild Arctic climates; but this is a subject which will be discussed in the next chapter.

This view of the character of the last glacial epoch appears to correspond very closely with the facts adduced by geologists. The inter-glacial deposits never exhibit any indication of a climate whose warmth corresponded to the severity of the preceding cold, but rather of a partial amelioration of that cold; while it is only the very latest of them, which we may suppose to have occurred when the excentricity was considerably diminished, that exhibit any indications of a climate at all warmer than that which now prevails.

Probable Date of the Glacial Epoch.—The state of extreme glaciation in the northern hemisphere, of which we gave a general description at the commencement of the preceding chapter, is a fact of which there can be no doubt whatever, and it occurred at a period so recent geologically that all the mollusca were the same as species still living. There is clear geological proof, however, that considerable changes of sea and land, and a large amount of valley denudation, took place during and since the glacial epoch, while on the other hand the surface markings produced by the ice have been extensively preserved; and taking all these facts into consideration, the period of about 200,000 years since it reached its maximum, and about 80,000 years since it passed away, is generally considered by geologists to be ample. There seems, therefore, to be little doubt that in increased excentricity we have found one of the chief exciting causes of the glacial epoch, and that we are therefore able to fix its date with a considerable probability of being correct. The enormous duration of the glacial epoch itself (including its interglacial mild or warm phases), as compared with the lapse of time since it finally passed away, is a consideration of the greatest importance, and has not yet been taken fully into account in the interpretation given by geologists of the physical and biological changes that were coincident with, and probably dependent on, it.

Changes of the Sea-level Dependent on Glaciation.—It has been pointed out by Dr. Croll, that many of the changes of level of sea and land which occurred about the time of the glacial epoch may be due to an alteration of the sea-level caused by a shifting of the earth's centre of gravity; and physicists have generally admitted that the cause is a real one, and must have produced some effect of the kind indicated. It is evident that if ice-sheets several miles in thickness were removed from one polar area and placed on the other, the centre of gravity of the earth would shift towards the heavier pole, and the sea would necessarily follow it, and would rise accordingly. Extreme glacialists have maintained that during the height of the glacial epoch, an ice-cap extended from about 50° N. Lat. in Europe, and 40° N. Lat. in America, continually increasing in thickness, till it reached at least six miles thick at the pole; but this view is now generally given up. A similar ice-cap is however believed to exist on the Antarctic pole at the present day, and its transference to the northern hemisphere would, it is calculated, produce a rise of the ocean to the extent of 800 or 1,000 feet. We have, however, shown that the production of any such ice-cap is improbable if not impossible, because snow and ice can only accumulate where precipitation is greater than melting and evaporation, and this is never the case except in areas exposed to the full influence of the vapour-bearing winds. The outer rim of the ice-sheet would inevitably exhaust the air of so much of its moisture that what reached the inner parts would produce far less snow than would be melted by the long hot days of summer. The accumulations of ice were therefore probably confined, in the northern hemisphere, to the coasts exposed to moist winds, and where elevated land and mountain ranges afforded condensers to initiate the process of glaciation; and we have already seen that the evidence strongly supports this view. Even with this limitation, however, the mass of accumulated ice would be enormous, as indeed we have positive evidence that it was, and might have caused a sufficient shifting of the centre of gravity of the earth to produce a submergence of about 150 or 200 feet.

But this would only be the case if the accumulation of ice on one pole was accompanied by a diminution on the other, and this may have occurred to a limited extent during the earlier stages of the glacial epoch, when alternations of warmer and colder periods would be caused by winter occurring in perihelion or aphelion. If, however, as is here maintained, no such alternations occurred when the excentricity was near its maximum, then the ice would accumulate in the southern hemisphere at the same time as in the northern, unless changed geographical conditions, of which we have no evidence whatever, prevented such accumulations. That there was such a greater accumulation of ice is shown by the traces of ancient glaciers in the Southern Andes and in New Zealand, and also, according to several writers, in South Africa; and the indications in all these localities point to a period so recent that it must almost certainly have been contemporaneous with the glacial period of the northern hemisphere. This greater accumulation of ice in both hemispheres would lower the whole ocean by the quantity of water abstracted from it, while any want of perfect synchronism between the decrease of the ice at the two poles would cause a movement of the centre of gravity of the earth, and a slight rise of the sea-level at one pole and depression at the other. It is also generally believed that a great accumulation of ice would cause subsidence by its pressure on the flexible crust of the earth, and we thus have a very complex series of agents leading to elevations and subsidences of limited amount, such as seem always to have accompanied glaciation. This complexity of the causes at work may explain the somewhat contradictory evidence as to rise and fall of land, some authors maintaining that it stood higher, and others lower, during the glacial period.

The State of the Planet Mars, as Bearing on the Theory of Excentricity as a Cause of Glacial Periods.—It is well known that the polar regions of the planet Mars are covered with white patches or discs, which undergo considerable alterations of size according as they are more or less exposed to the sun's rays. They have therefore been generally considered to be snow or ice-caps, and to prove that Mars is now undergoing something like a glacial period. It must always be remembered, however, that we are very ignorant of the exact physical conditions of the surface of Mars. It appears to have a cloudy atmosphere like our own, but the gaseous composition of that atmosphere may be different, and the clouds may be formed of other matter besides aqueous vapour. Its much smaller mass and attractive power must have an effect on the nature and extent of these clouds, and the heat of the sun may consequently be modified in a way quite different from anything that obtains upon our earth. Bearing these difficulties and uncertainties in mind, let us see what are the actual facts connected with the supposed polar snows of Mars.

Mars offers an excellent subject for comparison with the Earth as regards this question, because its excentricity is now a little greater than the maximum excentricity of the Earth during the last million years,—(Mars excentricity 0·0931, Earth excentricity, 850,000 years back, 0·0707); the inclination of its axis is also a little greater than ours (Mars 28° 51′, Earth 23° 27′), and both Mars and the Earth are so situated that they now have the winter of their northern hemispheres in perihelion, that of their southern hemisphere being in aphelion. If, therefore, the physical condition of Mars were the same or nearly the same as that of the Earth, all circumstances combine, according to Dr. Croll's hypothesis, to produce a severe glacial epoch in its southern, with a perpetual spring or summer in its northern, hemisphere; while on the hypothesis here advocated we should expect glaciation at both poles. As a matter of fact Mars has two snow-caps, of nearly equal magnitude at their maximum in winter, but varying very unequally. The northern cap varies slowly and little, the southern varies rapidly and largely.

In the year 1830 the southern snow was observed, during the midsummer of Mars, to diminish to half its former diameter in a fortnight (the duration of such phenomena on Mars being reckoned in Martian months equivalent to one-twelfth of a Martian year). Thus on June 23rd it was 11° 30′ in diameter, and on July 9th had diminished to 5° 46′, after which it rapidly increased again. In 1837 the same cap was observed near its maximum in winter, and was found to be about 35° in diameter.

In the same year the northern snow-cap was observed during its summer, and was found to vary as follows:—

We thus see that Mars has two permanent snow-caps, of nearly equal size in winter but diminishing very unequally in summer, when the southern cap is reduced to nearly one third the size of the northern; and this fact is held by Mr. Carpenter, as it was by the late Mr. Belt, to be opposed to the view of the hemisphere which has winter in aphelion (as the southern now has both in the Earth and Mars), having been alone glaciated during periods of high excentricity.

Before, however, we can draw any conclusion from the case of Mars, we must carefully scrutinise the facts, and the conditions they imply. In the first place, there is evidently this radical difference between the state of Mars now and of the Earth during a glacial period—that Mars has no great ice-sheets spreading over its temperate zone, as the Earth undoubtedly had. This we know from the fact of the rapid disappearance of the white patches over a belt three degrees wide in a fortnight (equal to a width of about 100 miles of our measure), and in the northern hemisphere of eight degrees wide (about 280 miles) between May 4th and July 12th. Even with our much more powerful sun, which gives us more than twice as much heat as Mars receives, no such diminution of an ice-sheet, or of glaciers of even moderate thickness, could possibly occur; but the phenomenon is on the contrary exactly analogous to what actually takes place on the plains of Siberia in summer. These, as I am informed by Mr. Seebohm, are covered with snow during winter and spring to a depth of six or eight feet, which diminishes very little even under the hot suns of May, till warm winds combine with the sun in June, when in about a fortnight the whole of it disappears, and a little later the whole of northern Asia is free from its winter covering. As, however, the sun of Mars is so much less powerful than ours, we may be sure that the snow (if it is real snow) is much less thick—a mere surface-coating in fact, such as occurs in parts of Russia where the precipitation is less, and the snow accordingly does not exceed two or three feet in thickness.

We now see the reason why the southern pole of Mars parts with its white covering so much more quickly and to so much greater an extent than the northern, for the south pole during summer is nearest the sun, and, owing to the great excentricity of Mars, would have about one-third more heat than during the summer of the northern hemisphere; and this greater heat would cause the winds from the equator to be both warmer and more powerful, and able to produce the same effects on the scanty Martian snows as they produce on our northern snow-plains. The reason why both poles of Mars are almost equally snow-covered in winter is not difficult to understand. Owing to the greater obliquity of the ecliptic, and the much greater length of the year, the polar regions will be subject to winter darkness fully twice as long as with us, and the fact that one pole is nearer the sun during this period than the other at a corresponding period, will therefore make no perceptible difference. It is also probable that the two poles of Mars are approximately alike as regards their geographical features, and that neither of them is surrounded by very high land on which ice may accumulate. With us at the present time, on the other hand, geographical conditions completely mask and even reverse the influence of excentricity, and that of winter in perihelion in the northern, and summer in perihelion in the southern, hemisphere. In the north we have a preponderance of sea within the Arctic circle, and of lowlands in the temperate zone. In the south exactly opposite conditions prevail, for there we have a preponderance of land (and much of it high land) within the Antarctic circle, and of sea in the temperate zone. Ice, therefore, accumulates in the south, while a thin coating of snow, easily melted in summer, is the prevalent feature in the north; and these contrasts react upon climate to such an extent, that in the southern ocean, islands in the latitude of Ireland have glaciers descending to the level of the sea, and constant snowstorms in the height of summer, although the sun is then actually nearer the earth than it is during our northern summer!

It is evident, therefore, that the phenomena presented by the varying polar snows of Mars are in no way opposed to that modification of Dr. Croll's theory of the conditions which brought about the glacial epochs of our northern hemisphere, which is here advocated; but are perfectly explicable on the same general principles, if we keep in mind the distinction between an ice-sheet—which a summer's sun cannot materially diminish, but may even increase by bringing vapour to be condensed into snow—and a thin snowy covering which may be annually melted and annually renewed, with great rapidity and over large areas. Except within the small circles of perpetual polar snow there can at the present time be no ice-sheets in Mars; and the reason why this permanent snowy area is more extensive around the northern than around the southern pole may be partly due to higher land at the north, but is perhaps sufficiently explained by the diminished power of the summer sun, owing to its greatly increased distance at that season in the northern hemisphere, so that it is not able to melt so much of the snow which has accumulated during the long night of winter.

45 In a letter to Nature of October 30th, 1879, the Rev. O. Fisher calls attention to a result arrived at by Pouillet, that the temperature which the surface of the ground would assume if the sun were extinguished would be -128° F. instead of -239° F. If this corrected amount were used in our calculations, the January temperature of England during the glacial epoch would come out 17° F., and this Mr. Fisher thinks not low enough to cause any extreme difference from the present climate. In this opinion, however, I cannot agree with him. On the contrary, it would, I think, be a relief to the theory were the amounts of decrease of temperature in winter and increase in summer rendered more moderate, since according to the usual calculation (which I have adopted) the differences are unnecessarily great. I cannot therefore think that this modification of the temperatures, should it be ultimately proved to be correct (which is altogether denied by Dr. Croll), would be any serious objection to the adoption of Dr. Croll's theory of the Astronomical and Physical causes of the Glacial Epoch.

The reason of the theoretical increase of summer heat being greater than the decrease of winter cold is because we are now nearest the sun in winter and farthest in summer, whereas we calculate the temperatures of the glacial epoch for the phase of precession when the aphelion was in winter. A large part of the increase of temperature would no doubt be used up in melting ice and evaporating water, so that there would be a much less increase of sensible heat; while only a portion of the theoretical lowering of temperature in winter would be actually produced owing to equalising effect of winds and currents, and the storing up of heat by the earth and ocean.

46 Dr. Croll says this "is one of the most widespread and fundamental errors within the whole range of geological climatology." The temperature of the snow itself is, he says, one of the main factors. (Climate and Cosmology, p. 85.) But surely the temperature of the snow must depend on the temperature of the air through which it falls.

47 In an account of Prof. Nordenskjöld's recent expedition round the northern coast of Asia, given in Nature, November 20th, 1879, we have the following passage, fully supporting the statement in the text. "Along the whole coast, from the White Sea to Behring's Straits, no glacier was seen. During autumn the Siberian coast is nearly free of ice and snow. There are no mountains covered all the year round with snow, although some of them rise to a height of more than 2,000 feet." It must be remembered that the north coast of Eastern Siberia is in the area of supposed greatest winter cold on the globe.

48 Dr. Croll objects to this argument on the ground that Greenland and the Antarctic continent are probably lowlands or groups of islands. (Climate and Cosmology, Chap. V.)

49 "On the Glacial Epoch," by James Croll. ''Geol. Mag.'' July, August, 1874.

50 "The general absence of recent marks of glacial action in Eastern Europe is well known; and the series of changes which have been so well traced and described by Prof. Szabó as occurring in those districts seems to leave no room for those periodical extensions of 'ice-caps' with which some authors in this country have amused themselves and their readers. Mr. Campbell, whose ability to recognise the physical evidence of glaciers will scarcely be questioned, finds quite the same absence of the proof of extensive ice-action in North America, westward of the meridian of Chicago." (Prof. J. W. Judd in Geol. Mag. 1876, p. 535.)

The same author notes the diminution of marks of ice-action on going eastward in the Alps; and the Altai Mountains far in Central Asia show no signs of having been largely glaciated. West of the Rocky Mountains, however, in the Sierra Nevada and the coast ranges further north, signs of extensive old glaciers again appear; all which phenomena are strikingly in accordance with the theory here advocated, of the absolute dependence of glaciation on abundant rainfall and elevated snow-condensers and accumulators.

51 I have somewhat modified this whole passage in the endeavour to represent more accurately the difference between the views of Dr. Croll and Sir Charles Lyell.

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 and its stubborn attitude with respect to the civil power and Parliament. Had it not been well known that Joffre was a moderate Republican, this last—always, to the French political mind, indication of a possible coup d’état—would alone have caused Joffre’s overthrow. Millerand fell from power chiefly because he would not reassert the Ministerial rights usurped by G.H.Q. Briand followed, and his ingenuity was taxed to the utmost in pacifying criticism while retaining Joffre, behind whose imperturbable authority the bureaux of G.H.Q. acted as they pleased. In Dec. 1915 the endeavour to impose an effective control on G.H.Q. took shape in the appointment of Joffre as commander-in-chief of French forces in all theatres; but in assuming the new and wider responsibility Joffre managed to retain his immediate command of the armies of the western front, from which it had been intended to remove him by this step. Complaints, however, which had grown more and more audible as each offensive of 1915 ended in disappointment, came to a head in the winter of 1915–6 when the French Parliament became alarmed about the state of the Verdun front. To direct inquiry by the Government, Joffre returned a direct answer that this front was safe and well equipped—coupled with a protest against any reports bemg listened to other than his own,—and when the storm of the German offensive broke upon this front, found it weak, and nearly swept it away, Joffre’s prestige received a blow from which it did not recover. Although the policy of the Briand Government towards the general survived both the resignation of Galliéni and the secret session on Verdun, the slow progress of the battle of the Somme and the disastrous sequel to Rumania’s intervention led in Nov. to the final step being taken. Nivelle was placed in charge of the armies in France, Sarrail restored to his independence as commander in the east, and Joffre called to Paris as “technical adviser to the Government” (Dec. 13). A few days later (Dec. 16) he was created a marshal of France—the first since 1870. Thenceforward his rôle in the war was that of a spectator, except for a period in which he was sent on a mission to the United States (spring 1917). Marshal Joffre was elected a member of the Académie Française in 1918. Having in July 1914 been given the grand cross of the Legion of Honour, he had received the still higher honour of the médaille militaire in Nov. 1914.

His evidence before the Briey Commission as to the early events of the war, republished under the title La préparation de la guerre et la conduite des opérations, is the most important document that has appeared on the French side concerning 1914. The story of his tenure of the command, on its political side is given in Mermeix’s Les Crises du Commandement, part i.

 JOHANNESBURG, TRANSVAAL, S. AFRICA (see 15.431). At the 1911 census the pop. within the municipal area was 237,104, compared with 155,642 in 1904. In the interval Johannesburg had outstripped Cape Town in number of inhabitants and had become the largest city in Africa S. of Egypt. In 1919 the pop. was estimated at 260,000, of whom 149,750 were whites (the white pop. in 1904 having been 83,903).

Though other industries were developed the life of Johannesburg continued to be bound up with the working of the Witwatersrand gold-mines, and it is the business centre for the other municipalities on the Rand, some of which grew at a more rapid rate than Johannesburg itself. Improvement in the amenities of the town were carried out with energy, largely the result of the activities of the town council which acquired and worked all public utility services and possessed live stock and produce markets. New law courts, a new town hall and a municipal art gallery (the last in Joubert Park) were completed between 1910 and 1915. Eighty acres of Milner Park were given in 1916 by the town council as a site for a university; owing to the World War building did not begin till 1920. The proposed university became a constituent college of the university of South Africa, and includes the S.A. School of Mines and Technology (situated in Plein Square), and, since 1919, schools of anatomy and art. Many street improvements were effected, the suburbs provided with open spaces, and churches, clubs and handsome business premises erected by private enterprise. The Asiatic and native locations at Vrededorp, little over a mile from the centre of the city, were however allowed to remain in an insanitary and shocking condition. The S.A. Asiatic Inquiry Commission after a visit in 1920 wrote of the location, “It is difficult to conceive of a worse slum existing in any part of the world.”

Johannesburg retains its position as the chief horse-racing centre in South Africa, and from 1919, when an aerodrome was laid out, it also became a centre for air travel.

The rateable value of the municipality for 1919–20 was £34,358,000 (including £14,565,000 land value) and the rate 7d. in the £ on site values. The municipal income in 1918–9 was £1,988,000, the expenditure £1,934,000. In that year the net profit on the trading departments' transactions (gas, electricity, tramways, water and markets) was £149,000.

Johannesburg was the scene of serious riots in 1913–4 arising out of strikes by white miners and railwaymen and of anti-German riots in 1915 when, following the sinking of the “Lusitania,” property valued at fully £500,000 was destroyed. In 1917 the first S.A. trade union congress was held in the city. In 1919 there were strikes and disturbances among the native workers in the mines.  JOHN, AUGUSTUS EDWYN (1879– ), British painter, was born at Tenby on Jan. 4 1879. He received his art education at the Slade School, London, and afterwards worked in Paris, later spending some time in Provence. He became a regular exhibitor at the New English Art Club, and in 1901–2 was teacher of art in the university of Liverpool, returning to London in 1902. He early became prominent as a powerful draughtsman and painter with a fine sense of design. His earlier work includes “The Way Down to the Sea” (1906), lent by Mr. John Quinn to the Metropolitan Museum of New York; “The Kitchen Garden,” “The Smiling Woman” (1910) and “The Mumpers” (1912). For the Arts and Crafts Exhibition at Burlington House 1916, he executed a mural decoration illustrating “Peasant Industry.” During the war he held a commission as official artist in the Canadian Corps, and exhibited at the Canadian War Memorial Exhibition 1919 a cartoon for a large decoration, “Canadians opposite Lens.” He was later commissioned by the Imperial authorities to paint the chief characters of the Peace Conference. These portraits include two of the Emir Faisal and of Mr. W. M. Hughes, and those of Lt.-Col. T. E. Lawrence (presented to the Tate Gallery by the Duke of Westminster), Sir Robert Borden and Mr. Massey. He also painted portraits of Mr. Lloyd George (1916), Mr. Bernard Shaw (1916), Lord Fisher (1917), Lord Sumner (1918–9) and the Marchesa Casati (1918–9). His etchings form an important part of his work, the majority being produced between 1901–10. They include portraits, single figures and groups. He is marked among his contemporaries by his choice of figure subjects and a preference for small plates. He is represented in the Tate Gallery by several pictures, including “The Smiling Woman,” “Peasant Industry,” “Robin” (1917–8), and “Rachael,” and in the Print Room of the British Museum. His early work, with its definite contour enclosing areas of colour, relates him to the quattrocento Italian painters. Distortion for personal emphasis and decorative effect is another marked characteristic. In 1921 he was elected A.R.A.  JOHN, GRIFFITH (1831–1912), Welsh missionary, was born at Swansea Dec. 14 1831. He was brought up a Congregationalist, and at the age of eight was admitted to full membership of his chapel. When only fourteen he delivered his first sermon at a prayer meeting; at sixteen he became a regular preacher, and was subsequently trained at the Brecon Congregational College for the ministry. In 1853 he offered his services to the London Missionary Society, and after two years' training sailed for Shanghai in 1855. His work in China covered a period of 55 years. In 1861 he went from Shanghai through the provinces of central China, which he was the first Christian missionary to penetrate, and he claimed that with his colleagues he had established over 100 mission stations in Hu-peh and Hu-nan. He acquired an intimate knowledge of the Chinese language and literature, and translated the New Testament and a great part of the Old into more than one Chinese dialect. In the Yang-tsze valley he founded a theological college for native preachers, which bears his name. In 1911 his health finally gave way and he returned to England. He died at Hampstead July 25 1912.  JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (see 15.460) moved in 1916 to its new site at Homewood in the northern suburbs of Baltimore,

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