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The Twilight Singers

The Twilight Singers are an American indie rock band. It was formed in 1997 by Greg Dulli as a side project during a hiatus from his group The Afghan Whigs. After the Afghan Whigs disbanded, Dulli used The Twilight Singers as his own artistic vehicle and has now released five studio albums backed by worldwide tours.

Demos era
While in-between Afghan Whigs albums and amidst a dispute with their record label, Elektra Records, Dulli recorded demos for the act with friends and collaborators Shawn Smith (Brad, Satchel, Pigeonhed) and Harold "Happy" Chichester (Royal Crescent Mob, Howlin' Maggie) at Kingsway Studio with producer engineer Ryan Hadlock in New Orleans. These demos set an exceptionally dark, tense mood, even for Greg Dulli. As a result of The Afghan Whigs' label troubles, it is debated whether or not Elektra may have leaked the demo tapes unto the internet, as they were widely circulated in the trader circuit.

The Afghan Whigs settled their dispute with Elektra and signed with Sony/Columbia in April 1998. Columbia optioned The Twilight Singers recordings, but preferred to release a new Afghan Whigs album instead. The Afghan Whigs' swan song 1965 was released in October 1998 to wide critical acclaim. The band toured for one year in support of the album but decided to disband in February 2001.

Twilight and Blackberry Belle
In 2000, Greg Dulli revived The Twilight Singers, reworking the original leaked demos with dance producers and remix auteurs Fila Brazillia. Columbia released the album as Twilight as Played by The Twilight Singers in September 2000. The band toured with members of Howlin' Maggie and former Afghan Whigs' drummer, Michael Horrigan, on bass.

Dulli took time off following the short tour for Twilight, investing in a bar in Los Angeles. In 2001, he began working on the follow-up for Twilight tentatively titled Amber Headlights. The death of Dulli's friend, director Ted Demme in January 2002, forced him to shelve the project, and he took a second leave from writing and recording. After reading the Jack London book Martin Eden, and experiencing an earthquake, Dulli set about writing the concept album that became Blackberry Belle.

With a large cast of performers, including former Prince protégé Apollonia and former Screaming Trees singer Mark Lanegan, Blackberry Belle became an examination of the dark side of love and loss, a familiar topic revisited from former Afghan Whigs albums like Black Love. Critics welcomed Dulli's return and were eager to give his second album, independently financed and released through One Little Indian Records in October 2003, high marks.

She Loves You and Powder Burns
A second touring version of The Twilight Singers including Jon Skibic (guitars), Scott Ford (bass), John Nooney (keys) and Bobby Macintyre (drums), made two legs through the United States and Europe in 2003 and 2004.

In August 2004, the band released their third album, She Loves You, a collection of cover songs from artists as varied as Fleetwood Mac, Mary J. Blige, Björk, and George Gershwin.

In September 2005, Dulli finally released his formerly shelved Amber Headlights album as his first solo album. He continued working on his fourth Twilight Singers album which was partly recorded by generator power in New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

By 2005, The Twilight Singers' three albums had sold a combined total of 58,000 copies, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

The Twilight Singers released Powder Burns on May 16, 2006, supported by tours in the United States, Europe, Israel, Australia, and New Zealand. The third touring version of The Twilight Singers included Dave Rosser, (guitars), Scott Ford (bass), singer/songwriter Jeff Klein (keys) and Bobby Macintyre (drums). Mark Lanegan also toured with the group. On January 3, 2007, The Twilight Singers made their television debut on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, performing their songs "Forty Dollars" from Powder Burns and "Sublime" from A Stitch in Time. The band was joined by friend and musician Joseph Arthur on guitar and vocals.

In mid-2009, The Twilight Singers' cover of "When Doves Cry" was issued on Spin magazine's download album Purplish Rain.

Dynamite Steps
Greg Dulli completed work on the fifth Twilight Singers album, entitled Dynamite Steps, in late 2010. The album was released to warm critical acclaim on February 15, 2011, via Sub Pop Records. Prior to the new album's release in September 2010, the band issued the album track "Blackbird and the Fox", featuring guest vocals from Ani DiFranco, as a free download on their website. The band supported the album's release with live in-store performances at Amoeba Music in Los Angeles and San Francisco, then appeared again on Jimmy Kimmel Live! on February 23, 2011, performing the songs "On the Corner" and "Gunshots", both featuring guest guitarist and vocalist Joseph Arthur.

The Twilight Singers performed "On The Corner" on the Late Show with David Letterman on April 26, 2011.

Live In New York
The Twilight Singers released their first live album on November 15, 2011.

Singles and EPs

 * Black Is the Color of My True Love's Hair (EP) (October 7, 2003; Birdman Recordings)
 * "Teenage Wristband" single (November 10, 2003; One Little Indian)
 * "Feathers"/"Number Nine" single (January 26, 2004; One Little Indian)
 * "Too Tough to Die"/"Hard Time Killing Floor" single (November 15, 2004; One Little Indian)
 * "There's Been an Accident" digital single (May 15, 2006; One Little Indian)
 * "I'm Ready" single (July 10, 2006; One Little Indian)
 * A Stitch in Time (EP) (December 4, 2006; One Little Indian)
 * "On the Corner" (2011)

title: The Twilight Singers


text:
Talk:Doctor Zhivago (film)

Plot Synopsis
Should we be seeking consensus about how long the plot synopsis ought to be? A template message has been added, not unreasonably since the synopsis, in two parts, is clearly way over 700 words, but perhaps an exception should be made for a 193-minute film: at least one editor seems to have felt at some point that this film was a special case. Per$1$tenceofv1$1on (talk) 01:09, 19 November 2023 (UTC)Per$1$tenceofv1$1on

 * FWIW, the "plot summary" section of the Wiki article on Pasternak's novel begins: "The plot of Doctor Zhivago is long and intricate. It can be difficult to follow..." Per$1$tenceofv1$1on (talk) 01:12, 19 November 2023 (UTC)
 * At around 830 words it does exceed the normal 700 word maximum - but as you say the length of the film does provide some reason for this. It is far less egregious than the summaries in some other articles, which I have shortened. And if you read the plot summary as it now stands, it really has very little 'fat' compared with others. I think it would start to lose value if shortened. Ponsonby100 (talk) 09:03, 19 November 2023 (UTC)
 * The guideline is precisely that, so exceptions can and should be made where applicable. I have never agreed with using the length of a film to justify making an exception to the guideline; exceptions should based on complexity, and how useful the plot summary needs to be. Gone with the Wind is a longer film and has a shorter summary, but perhaps it is a less complex film that can be summarized in fewer words. I take a fairly relaxed view on this: if a plot summary for a thematically complex film is only slightly over the word count, and there has been a credible attempt to tighten it up then I think that is a reasonable point to invoke the exception, which does seem to be the case here. Betty Logan (talk) 15:28, 19 November 2023 (UTC)
 * Thanks very much both! I've made some very trivial changes so the summary should now be a little under 800 words, and I'm going to remove the template. Per$1$tenceofv1$1on (talk) 19:06, 20 November 2023 (UTC)

Lede Comment
Currently the lede's second paragraph starts, "While immensely popular in the West, Pasternak's book was banned in the Soviet Union for decades. For this reason, the film could not be made in the Soviet Union and was instead filmed mostly in Francoist Spain." A basically identical statement ("Because the book was banned in the Soviet Union, it could not be filmed there") was removed from the body of the article on 5 July by an editor who said it was "nonsense/a lie": I think it's more accurate to say that the banning of the book in the USSR and the impossibility of Lean filming there were both products of the Cold War (how many Western movies were shot in Russia before The Blue Bird?). I'm going to revise the lede's 2nd para slightly. Per$1$tenceofv1$1on (talk) 23:07, 11 December 2023 (UTC)

coat
(regarding an edit I made that was reverted for being unsourced) sources are https://enzyklo.de/Lokal/42134/Begriff/Schiwago_Look and https://elle.de/fashion-fashion-news-virtuelle-ausstellung-yves-saint-laurent-184529.html but we should probably use English-language sources if available. Arlo James Barnes 21:33, 28 December 2023 (UTC)

 * The first link does not work, and the second does not mention Doctor Zhivago from what I can see. Betty Logan (talk) 21:42, 28 December 2023 (UTC)

 * So the second, German, article alludes to the movie's influence on fashion briefly in paragraph 3:"Seine ersten Kollektionen galten als skandalös. Er verwendete als einer der ersten Designer transparente Stoffe [...] 1965 entwarf Yves Saint Laurent das legendäre Mondrian-Kleid, ein Jahr später den Schiwago-Look mit transparenten Oberteilen und Trenchcoats" which translates as "Yves Saint-Laurent's earliest collections caused a sensation. He was one of the first designers of transparent material [...] in 1966 he designed the 'Zhivago look' with transparent tops/upper garments and trenchcoats" Unfortunately the first link doesn't work, so this source alone doesn't back up the recent edit. Having a brief look online I saw this: Per$1$tenceofv1$1on (talk) 03:49, 30 December 2023 (UTC)

 * I am able to refind the content on the 'enzyklo' site but not what the URL is to update the link. Maybe AJAX at work I guess. Arlo James Barnes 01:36, 2 January 2024 (UTC)
 * Pretty sure my reply didn't originally use block quotes! Per$1$tenceofv1$1on (talk) 13:27, 2 January 2024 (UTC)

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

title: Talk:Doctor Zhivago (film)


text:
Snap!

Snap! is a German Eurodance group formed in 1989 by producers Michael Münzing and Luca Anzilotti. The act has been through a number of lineup changes over the years, including American singers, songwriters, and rappers Thea Austin, Turbo B, Niki Haris, and Penny Ford. Their best-known hits are "The Power" and "Rhythm Is a Dancer", both of which reached No. 1 in multiple countries.

Previous projects
Luca Anzilotti and Michael Münzing started working together in 1985 in the group Off (Organisation For Fun), with Sven Väth. They recorded two albums, Organisation for Fun (1988) and Ask Yourself (1989), and a series of singles, including "Electrica Salsa", until 1990.

The two created the side project 16 BIT in 1986 and had success with their first single, "Where Are You?" In 1987, they released the album Inaxycvgtgb for BMG.

Formation and first album
Anzilotti and Münzing formed Snap! in 1989, under the aliases Benito Benites and John "Virgo" Garrett III, as they thought that the public had negative preconceived ideas of German music. Their first hit, "The Power", which was fronted by American rapper Turbo B and singer Penny Ford, peaked at #2 in Germany in April 1990 and spent five weeks in that position, eventually going Gold for sales of 250,000 units. The single topped the charts in the United Kingdom and picked up a Silver award for sales of 200,000 units. In the U.S., it reached No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 and was certified Platinum for 1,000,000 units.

Jackie Harris was used to mime Ford's vocals in the "Power" video and left the group shortly after, and Ford became its full-time lead singer, recording the second single, "Ooops Up", a re-working of "I Don't Believe You Want to Get Up and Dance (Ooops!)", a 1980 hit by the Gap Band, with which Penny was a former backing singer. "Oops Up" was another #2 hit in Germany, spending nine weeks in the position. The single entered the top 5 in the UK, picking up another Silver award, and it was awarded a Gold certification in the U.S. Further hits followed, with the oriental-sounding "Cult of Snap", which charted at No. 3 in Germany and No. 8 in the UK, and "Mary Had a Little Boy", which reached to No. 4 in Germany, and again No. 8 in the UK. The band's first album, World Power, reached No. 7 in Germany, No. 10 in the UK, and No. 30 in the U.S.  The album went Platinum in Germany and Gold in the UK and U.S.

Second album
In 1991, American singer, composer, songwriter, and dancer Thea Austin joined Snap!'s lineup and helped write the song "Rhythm Is a Dancer", which was initially planned to be the lead single from the second album but was pushed back, and "Colour of Love" was released in its place. This track managed to peak at No. 9 in Germany but stalled at #No. 54 in the UK. "Rhythm Is a Dancer", which used a sample from the song "Automan" by early 1980s American electronic hip hop band Newcleus, was issued as the second single, in July 1992, and went on to become Snap!'s biggest hit to date, shooting to No. 1 in Germany, the UK, France, Switzerland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium. In the U.S., it peaked at No. 5, collecting another Gold for sales of 500,000 units. At home in Germany, the single went Platinum for 500,000 units and picked up a Gold in the UK for sales of 400,000 units. The third single, "Exterminate", charted at No. 3 in Germany and No. 2 in the UK and went Gold in the band's home country.

The Madman's Return, Snap!'s second album, did well in the charts, peaking at No. 3 in Germany and entering the top 10 in the UK, the Netherlands, Austria, and Switzerland. Around the time of its release, Turbo B decided to leave the project due to disagreements with the production duo. The album went Gold in Germany and the UK, for sales of 250,000 units and 100,000 units, respectively.

One more single was released, titled "Do You See the Light", and featured Niki Haris.

Third album
Münzing and Anzilotti recruited Washington, D.C.-born singer Summer (Paula Brown) to front the act for the third album. Snap! moved towards a progressive house sound and released the first single, called "Welcome to Tomorrow (Are You Ready?)", in September 1994. The track peaked at No. 4 in Germany and No. 6 in the UK and was followed by the album, also titled Welcome to Tomorrow. The second single, "The First the Last Eternity (Till the End)", was a moderate hit in the UK but reached No. 7 in Germany. Snap! released two more singles from the album: "The World in My Hands" and "Rame" (featuring Rukmani), both of which experienced moderate chart entries.

Breakup and return
In 1996, the group officially disbanded after releasing a greatest hits compilation called Snap! Attack: The Best of Snap!. The album included a new version of their two biggest hits, "The Power '96" and "Rhythm Is a Dancer '96".

The act returned in 2000 with a track entitled "Gimme a Thrill", complete with rap lyrics performed by Turbo B and vocals from the band's newest singer, Maxayn. It did not attract much attention and peaked only at No. 11 in the German dance charts. A new album, called One Day on Earth, was planned for release around this time but was canceled.

A new version of "Do You See the Light", remixed by Plaything, was released in 2002. The following year, a remix album, The Cult of Snap!, came out, and re-worked singles were issued. "Rhythm Is a Dancer 2003" peaked at No. 7 in Germany and No. 17 in the UK, while "The Power (of Bhangra 2003)" charted moderately in Austria, Switzerland, and Denmark. The act also released a re-done version of "Oops Up!", which featured vocals by NG3 and managed to enter the Swedish charts at No. 40 and the German top 100 singles chart at No. 69.

Buoyed by the success of the remixes, Münzing and Anzilotti went back into the studio with singer Damien Behanan, also known as Loc, and released the single "Beauty Queen" in September 2005 through Luma Music, which peaked within the top 10 on the German dance charts but failed to enter the official charts. The band released another digital download single in 2008, featuring Loc, called "Jumping!", but this also failed to chart.

On 16 June 2008, a new version of "Rhythm Is a Dancer '08" was released as a CD single in the UK, peaking at No. 23.

In 2018, rights to all recordings of Snap!, previously owned by Münzing and Anzilotti, were transferred to BMG Rights Management, a current incarnation of BMG.

Discography

 * World Power (1990)
 * The Madman's Return (1992)
 * Welcome to Tomorrow (1994)

title: Snap!


text:
Talk:Prediction

can you please help me know my future

Deleting or fixing?
Wow, this article is crap. I can't see it ever containing anything useful. Anyone mind if I nominate it for deletion? --Doradus 02:53, Dec 15, 2004 (UTC)

 * It would be well suited for an entry on the Scientific Method, prediction is a bit of a stretch and perhaps a bit misleading. --johnycanal 03:58, Feb 15, 2005 (UTC)

 * I don't agree. I'm trying to fix the article, but it will take a lot of work. In particular, I don't like the "future topics" section. Much of that should be integrated into the article. --Pablo D. Flores 14:17, 27 Apr 2005 (UTC)

It could use fixing, but come on, who actually has the patience to read "predictions"? -J.H.

Please also consider adding some external links: http://www.longbets.org http://www.zapfuture.com http://www.icalledit.com/forums

Cleaning up the mess (list of topics)
I'm moving these sections here. The main issues should be integrated into a few short well-wikified paragraphs, maybe following a timeline. should be used for the larger sections. Whatever doesn't fit in running text should be put into a "See also" or "Related" made entirely of relevant links, and containing no more than 8-10 entries if possible. --Pablo D. Flores 14:38, 27 Apr 2005 (UTC)

Future topics

 * past approaches to prediction
 * the mechanistic universe
 * the omniscience of God
 * chance and probability
 * modern scientific ideas
 * is it possible to predict the future, even in principle?
 * quantum theory
 * limits on computability, and the holographic principle
 * chaos theory
 * phase space evolution
 * relativity theory and "block time"
 * Prediction and forecasting in practice
 * Statistics
 * Simulation
 * Weather forecasting
 * Economic forecasting
 * Transport planning
 * Stock markets and Futures markets
 * Think tanks and futurology
 * Management of risk, for example, the Insurance industry
 * Extreme-value theory

'Predictions' is a very broad topic. For it to be a credible page, it can be divided better. If someone can use a mind-map to make some sort of outline that would make this page valuable to everyone. For example: Credibility -> Verifiability VS Falsifiability Links Links, etc.. Educated Guess VS Intangible Unprovable Evidence (Even if future) and possibility VS (Pessimism Vs Optimism vs Pygmalion Effect) VS Useful Construct etc.. Also, you can have titles such as 'Predictions In Business' or 'Predictions In Everyday Life(Common Sense, Estimation)' or 'Predictions In Superstition/Insanity/Depression & Pessimism' (Omen, possibly Mechanistic Universe, possibly Ying/Yang) etc.. 218.186.8.12 19:59, 11 December 2006 (UTC)P. J. Claudio

Related topics

 * talk:Scientific predictions - Ideas for expanding the Prediction article
 * failed predictions
 * falsifiability
 * fortune-telling
 * free will and consciousness
 * future of...
 * gambling
 * hidden-variable theory
 * hypothesis testing
 * inference
 * linear prediction
 * logical induction
 * oracles
 * prediction interval
 * probability theory
 * prophecy
 * psychohistory
 * quantum indeterminacy
 * randomness
 * receiver operator characteristic
 * retrodiction
 * scientific method
 * Seymour Geisser
 * statistical prediction

What about statistical forecasting?
I think it is a big mistake to redirect "Forecasting" to "Prediction". I was hoping to find an article about statistical forecasting which would have inclduded details about many time-series quantitative statistical techniques including exponential-smoothing, ARMA, and the many many more. It was a big disapointment to be re-directed to this article - it is like re-directing enquires about "Astronomy" to an article about "Astrology"!

I have written some more comments about this here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category_talk:Statistics

It is, by the way, more correct to refer to "statistical forecasting" than "statistical prediction" since all the textbooks about this topic that I have seen use the word forecasting in the title rather than the word prediction.

Thanks

fred2

 * I have applied your suggestions in Forecasting. Also see Predictive analytics
 * Apdevries 15:19, 2 September 2006 (UTC)

Unnecessary and distracting page
I agree with the previous correspondent: why is there a page on "prediction" as well as one on "forecasting". This page should be removed or, failing that, links should go from prediction to forecasting but not the other way around. --Kesten 01:07, 16 November 2006 (UTC)
 * A forecast generates a prediction. If the prediction is accurate, the forecast was correct, and this information adds weight to the validity of the forecasting technique for planning purposes.
 * Prediction is just a guess about the future; forecasting, however, uses a more scientific method to arrive at its results. Think outside the box 11:26, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
 * The term prediction is ok in a religious context. In science the relevant term is forecast. Everything on science should be removed from this article. Gabriel Kielland 16:23, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
 * Disagree. Forecasts are a branch of the whole concept of predictions. Only, they're made with the help of models, computers or scientific data. But it remains that time is the only way to learn whether they are right or wrong. --Childhood's End 16:54, 2 March 2007 (UTC)

The future as a chaotic system
If future events may be described as chaos,the chaotic nature of the system may be a basis for a future edit to this article. Since chaos is unpredictable,we cannot predict what events will occur,so we narrow it down to a finite set of events that are plausible. For example,it is plausible that earthquakes will occur near known fault lines,since they have occured there in the past. It's not plausible that flying saucers will land in Nashville to meet with Elvis. Prediction is merely a process of pointing out a future event that is so plausible,it seems likely to occur. For example,suppose Barack Obama gets most of the popular votes in the November election,and he appears to win,but Mc Cain gets enough electoral votes to put himself into the White House. I predict that millions of Blacks all over the country will become angry,and start riots,to protest,because they will feel that Obama had been cheated out of a legitimate political victory. Predicting a riot,like that,is plausible,because riots have occured,for political reasons,in the past. If you read Wikipedia's article on Chaos,it says chaotic systems look unpredictable,but they aren't,they behave according to natural laws. Anthony Ratkov —Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.218.77.191 (talk) 06:18, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

 * Chaotic systems are not unpredictable -- they are unpredictable over long horizons. Weather is a good example -- predictions out to a few days in the future are extremely accurate. Predictions six months in the future are meaningless. Wikiant (talk) 13:00, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Article about significant long term predictions in history
Does an article exist that strictly covers accurate predictions from the distant past that turned out to be true, or one that summarizes the accuracy of various historical futurists? I've been able to find isolated examples, like Newton's prediction of the existence of Neptune, but I remember in school we talked about books people had written from time to time in history that predicted the future of science and society, some more accurate than others - there seems to be a lot of stuff about present day futurists, but what about historical ones? Where should I be looking? Thanks 131.107.0.105 (talk) 17:49, 11 August 2009 (UTC)

what is my feature now,after 10 years? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 112.201.94.245 (talk) 04:39, 23 January 2010 (UTC)

Practical Relationships for Predicting the Future
We predict the future from moment to moment with high probability of success; so long as our reference frame is a few minutes. Examples: Our intent to go to our car and start the engine, to slow down because of an anticipated bump...

The further out we can make predictions, the greater opportunities are presented to us. A laborer's insights yield them lower pay and Project Managers are paid much higher wages to make predictions on a regular basis; to ensure that a prediction (project) comes to pass. The Space Shuttle was a prediction and great effort was taken to ensure it came to be. Each of the efforts were predictions that were actively acted upon.

Whether or not a prediction occurs because of passive or active intent, does not matter. The prediction was made, and the outcome confirmed (self fulfilling prophecies).

Escalating Opportunities occur when predictions can be made on a consistent basis. Anarchy does not allow for long term predictions because there are no rules. Ethical relationships provides frequent creation of new opportunities because of predictable outcomes.

The following chart provides commonly known relationships, that allow a person to relate thier feelings to predictable outcomes. If they want to have opportunities offered to them, then they need to understand their share of the related responsibilities; mutually being able to predict their future.

The chart corelates many factors in such a way that a person can relate their own experiences to the chart and through Probability Aliasing (reading between the lines), they can make better choices for themselves. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Jamesbdunn (talk • contribs) 10:04, 30 December 2011 (UTC)

Predicting across space rather than time
I wonder why there is no attention paid to making predictions across space rather than time, such as predicting patterns in data? Isn't it all the same concept?

The forecasting page said 'Prediction' is the more general concept, so I don't think it would be valid to counter that we could just lump spatial prediction under forecasting instead. LegendLength (talk) 03:19, 27 May 2013 (UTC)

Undue Weight
Like CAPM, there is only one model that fits this niche, certainly no other predictive project-decision models of this sort: Non-regression, nonstochastic, etc..GESICC (talk) 22:33, 8 August 2016 (UTC)

 * A couple of questions:
 * Could you elaborate on how RiskAoA relates to CAPM?
 * Can you provide a reliable secondary source that supports your claim that there are no other predictive project-decision models?
 * I am not an expert in this area, but I know that there are many decision support systems including information aggregation tools, qualitative and quantitative scenario planning tools, multiple-criteria decision analysis methods, and so on. I have not found any reliable secondary sources that indicate that RiskAoA is preeminent in this area. Biogeographist (talk) 01:14, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

 * A They are both unique to their niche, one tool, one function. Intuitively, CAPM is Strategic, RiskAoA is operational, while PRA is tactical.
 * B How can I show something that doesn't exist? Your decision support system link expressly defines how RiskAoA is different.  It doesn't use those techniques. V/RGESICC (talk) 04:50, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

 * Thanks for the response, but it would be helpful if you would spell out the acronyms you use or wikilink each acronym to the relevant article. Remember that Wikipedia is edited by a very diverse set of people and everyone may not interpret your abbreviations as you intend. For example, the first thing that comes to my mind when I hear the acronym PRA is participatory rural appraisal but you are more likely referring to probabilistic risk assessment. I find your following statement to be unclear: "Your decision support system link expressly defines how RiskAoA is different. It doesn't use those techniques." Which techniques are you referring to when you say "those techniques"? On the contrary, it seems obvious to me that RiskAoA is a (Microsoft Excel-based) decision support system. As the article on decision support systems states, "Some authors have extended the definition of DSS to include any system that might support decision making." Biogeographist (talk) 11:38, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

 * Also, I wasn't asking you to "show something that doesn't exist"; I was only asking for a reliable source that corroborates your claim that "certainly no other predictive project-decision models of this sort" exist. The RiskAoA steps currently listed at [//en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Decision-making&oldid=733588984#Steps Decision-making § Steps] (which are unsupported by a reliable source, but let's assume for the purpose of the present discussion that they are accurate) sound like a typical multi-criteria decision analysis procedure. Therefore there are many other similar methods; see, for example, . Biogeographist (talk) 17:26, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

 * Acronyms, no objection, no topic of discussion, either. Part two of your argument, being Excel based, is non-germane, tools used to be paper-based, the underlying math is what is unique.  Also, a dowsing tool is a novel decision tool, you are zig-zagging between objecting to general and specific traits using examples from both that do not apply.  This also has nothing to do with undue weight.
 * You have not made a germane argument in paragraph 2, if you believe that the examples you give provide rival approaches, then by all means, list them. GESICC (talk) 20:42, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

 * Microsoft Excel appeared in a parenthetical remark; it was not part of my argument, so yes, it was a "non-germane" detail (but a technologically interesting detail, in my opinion, given that the article on decision support systems states that: "Holsapple and Whinston classify DSS into the following six frameworks: text-oriented DSS, database-oriented DSS, spreadsheet-oriented DSS, solver-oriented DSS, rule-oriented DSS, and compound DSS"). My second paragraph, however, was very much germane. I would not call the list of MCDM methods "rival" approaches, but they do illustrate the variety of methods available. I am not interested enough to spend time adding to myself, but even a casual search on Google Scholar convinces me that RiskAoA is not the only solution to the problem of project risk management. Biogeographist (talk) 21:12, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

Thank you for your consideration.GESICC (talk) 21:29, 9 August 2016 (UTC)

As prediction is perhaps the single most important process in all of nature, this article underserves in the extreme.
Prediction in any quantity, so long as it outperforms raw search, is evolutionarily advantageous, is analogous to "fitness". Its what determines relative survival in any competitive situation. Prediction is synonymous with intelligence and evolutionary fitness, with compression and information, with thermodynamics and entropy maximization, with graph theory, with topology theory, with network theory, with locality, with least action, etc. This article seems to be written by someone who is entirely unqualified to contribute to or report on or document or condense the topic. I am not sure how wikipedia is structured as an editorial and content creation service, but there appears to be a fatal disconnect between ephemeral facts out on the terminal branches of the knowledge tree and the capacity of Wikipedia to provide foundational articles describing the main foundational branches of knowledge. Prediction is one such topic, foundational, keystone, a main-branch concept deserving of an article that does service to a topic of this weight.

Proposed merge of Predictive modelling into Prediction
More specifically, section Prediction; as per definition: "Predictive modelling uses statistics to prediction outcomes". fgnievinski (talk) 01:09, 4 April 2023 (UTC) fgnievinski (talk) 01:09, 4 April 2023 (UTC)

 * DON'T MERGE - My bad knee might predict that it will rain tonight. My mother-in-law predicts a trillion things. Predictive modelling is fundamentally (ideally) a scientific endeavour. We also don't equate politics with the "scientific" field of political science. Bquast (talk) 15:17, 22 June 2023 (UTC)

The definition is, the definition is something that is new 2601:240:E083:6D00:2CCE:1E6F:A3B3:D0F0 (talk) 01:11, 21 September 2023 (UTC)

 * No 2601:240:E083:6D00:2CCE:1E6F:A3B3:D0F0 (talk) 01:12, 21 September 2023 (UTC)

title: Talk:Prediction


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Peel Commission

The Peel Commission, formally known as the Palestine Royal Commission, was a British Royal Commission of Inquiry, headed by Lord Peel, appointed in 1936 to investigate the causes of conflict in Mandatory Palestine, which was administered by the United Kingdom, following a six-month-long Arab general strike.

On 7 July 1937, the commission published a report that, for the first time, stated that the League of Nations Mandate had become unworkable and recommended partition. The British cabinet endorsed the Partition plan in principle, but requested more information. Following the publication, in 1938 the Woodhead Commission was appointed to examine it in detail and recommend an actual partition plan.

The Arab leadership opposed the partition plan. The Arab Higher Committee opposed the idea of a Jewish state and called for an independent state of Palestine, "with protection of all legitimate Jewish and other minority rights and safeguarding of reasonable British interests". They also demanded cessation of all Jewish immigration and land purchase. They argued that the creation of a Jewish state and lack of independent Palestine was a betrayal of the word given by Britain.

The Zionist leadership was bitterly divided over the plan. In a resolution adopted at the 1937 Zionist Congress, the delegates rejected the specific partition plan. Yet the principle of partition is generally thought to have been "accepted" or "not rejected outright" by any major faction: the delegates empowered the leadership to pursue future negotiations. The Jewish Agency Council later attached a request that a conference be convened to explore a peaceful settlement in terms of an undivided Palestine. According to Benny Morris, Ben-Gurion and Weizmann saw it "as a stepping stone to some further expansion and the eventual takeover of the whole of Palestine".

History
With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, The United Kingdom was given a mandate by the League of Nations to administer the region known as Palestine. The mandate continued in force until the United Kingdom withdrew from it in 1948. The solution led to other problems, however, as the British sought to honor the Balfour Declaration while protecting the rights of the prior inhabitants of the territory. The British government investigated numerous possibilities for the region, including partition.

The commission was established at a time of increased violence; serious clashes between Arabs and Jews broke out in 1936 and were to last three years. On 11 November 1936, the commission arrived in Palestine to investigate the reasons behind the uprising. The commission was charged with determining the cause of the riots, and judging the grievances of both sides. Chaim Weizmann made a speech on behalf of the Jews. On 25 November 1936, testifying before the Peel Commission, Weizmann said that there are in Europe 6,000,000 Jews ... "for whom the world is divided into places where they cannot live and places where they cannot enter."

The Mufti of Jerusalem, Hajj Amin al-Husseini, testified in front of the commission, opposing any partition of Arab lands with the Jews. He demanded full cessation of Jewish immigration. Although the Arabs continued to boycott the Commission officially, there was a sense of urgency to respond to Weizmann's appeal to restore calm. The former Mayor of Jerusalem Ragheb Bey al-Nashashibi—who was the Mufti's rival in the internal Palestinian arena, was thus sent to explain the Arab perspective through unofficial channels.

In 1981 it was disclosed that the Jewish Agency Executive Political Department had installed microphones in the room in which the commission was meeting and Ben Gurion was able to read transcripts of evidence held in camera.

Membership
The Chairman of the Commission was William Peel, 1st Earl Peel and the Vice-Chairman was Sir Horace Rumbold, 9th Baronet. The other members were Sir Laurie Hammond, Sir Morris Carter, Sir Harold Morris, and Reginald Coupland.

Conclusions
The causes of the Arab rebellion that broke out in the previous year were judged to be

"First, the desire of the Arabs for national independence; secondly, their antagonism to the establishment of the Jewish National Home in Palestine, quickened by their fear of Jewish domination. Among contributory causes were the effect on Arab opinion of the attainment of national independence by ‘Iraq, Trans-Jordan, Egypt, Syria and the Lebanon; the rush of Jewish immigrants escaping from Central and Eastern Europe; the inequality of opportunity enjoyed by Arabs and Jews respectively in placing their case before Your Majesty’s Government and the public; the growth of Arab mistrust; Arab alarm at the continued purchase of Arab land by the intensive character and the 'modernism' of Jewish nationalism; and lastly the general uncertainty, accentuated by the ambiguity of certain phrases in the Mandate, as to the ultimate intentions of the Mandatory Power."

The Commission found that the drafters of the Mandate could not have foreseen the advent of massive Jewish immigration, that they considered due to "drastic restriction of immigration into the United States, the advent of the National Socialist Government in Germany in 1933 and the increasing economic pressure on the Jews in Poland." They wrote that "The continued impact of a highly intelligent and enterprising race, backed by large financial resources, on a comparatively poor indigenous community, on a different cultural level, may produce in time serious reactions."

The Commission found that "though the Arabs have benefited by the development of the country owing to Jewish immigration, this has had no conciliatory effect. On the contrary, improvement in the economic situation in Palestine has meant the deterioration of the political situation". Addressing the "Arab charge that the Jews have obtained too large a proportion of good land cannot be maintained", the Commission noted that "Much of the land now carrying orange groves was sand dunes or swamp and uncultivated when it was purchased." They write that "The shortage of land is, we consider, due less to the amount of land acquired by Jews than to the increase in the Arab population". "Endeavours to control the alienation of land by Arabs to Jews have not been successful. In the hills there is no more room for further close settlement by Jews; in the plains it should only be allowed under certain restrictions."

The Commission stated that Government have attempted to discharge the contradictory obligations of the Mandatory under conditions of great difficulty by "holding the balance" between Jews and Arabs. Repeated attempts to conciliate either race have only increased the trouble. The situation in Palestine has reached a deadlock. Development of local autonomy and selfgoverning institutions, this also has been hampered.

The Commission concluded that the prospect of a unified Palestine with Jews and Arabs as fellow citizens in a common state was remote due to the highly nationalistic natures of the two communities. On the nature of the Yishuv, it wrote that: "'The Jewish National Home is no longer an experiment. The growth of its population has been accompanied by political, social and economic developments along the lines laid down at the outset. The chief novelty is the urban and industrial development. The contrast between the modern democratic and primarily European character of the National Home and that of the Arab world around it is striking. The temper of the Home is strongly nationalist. There can be no question of fusion or assimilation between Jewish and Arab cultures. The National Home cannot be half-national.'"

It also concluded that such a prospect was growing less realistic with time due to the nature of the Jewish education system, which was causing a rise in Jewish nationalism, writing that "from the ages of three or four years, when children enter the kindergarten to be taught Hebrew if they do not know it already, pride in the past of Jewry and in the National Home as an exclusively and intensely Jewish achievement is the dynamic centre-point of their whole intellectual development. The idea that they are to share their life in any way with the Arabs, that they are growing up to be fellow-citizens with Arabs in a common Palestinian state, is only recognised in the teaching of a little Arabic in the secondary schools... So far, in fact, from facilitating a better understanding between the races, the Jewish educational system is making it more and more difficult as, year by year, its production of eager Jewish nationalists mounts up."

The committee concluded that Arab nationalism was also a potent force and that the two communities were more loyal to their own national leaderships than the Palestine administration:

"'Arab nationalism is as intense a force as Jewish. The Arab leaders' demand for national self-government and the shutting down of the Jewish National Home has remained unchanged since 1929. Like Jewish nationalism, Arab nationalism is stimulated by the educational system and by the growth of the Youth Movement. It has also been greatly encouraged by the recent Anglo-Egyptian and Franco-Syrian Treaties. The gulf between the races is thus already wide and will continue to widen if the present Mandate is maintained. The position of the Palestine Government between the two antagonistic communities is unenviable. There are two rival bodies – the Arab Higher Committee allied with the Supreme Moslem Council on the one hand, and the Jewish Agency allied with the Va'ad Leumi on the other – who make a stronger appeal to the natural loyalty of the Arab and the Jews than does the Government of Palestine. The sincere attempts of the Government to treat the two races impartially have not improved the relations between them. Nor has the policy of conciliating Arab opposition been successful. The events of last year proved that conciliation is useless.'"

The summary report statement concerning the possibility of lasting settlement states: "An irrepressible conflict has arisen between two national communities within the narrow bounds of one small country. There is no common ground between them. Their national aspirations are incompatible. The Arabs desire to revive the traditions of the Arab golden age. The Jews desire to show what they can achieve when restored to the land in which the Jewish nation was born. Neither of the two national ideals permits of combination in the service of a single State.

Recommendations
The Commission reached the conclusion that the Mandate had become unworkable and must be abolished in favour of partition, as the only solution to the Arab–Jewish "deadlock". It outlined ten points on: a Treaty system between the Arab and Jewish States and the new Mandatory Government; a Mandate for the Holy places; the frontiers; the need for Inter-State Subvention; the need for British Subvention; tariffs and ports; nationality; civil service; Industrial concessions; and the exchange of land and populations.

A Treaty system based on the Iraqi-Syrian precedent, proposed: Permanent mandates for the Jerusalem area and "corridor" stretching to the Mediterranean coast at Jaffa—and the land under its authority (and accordingly, the transfer of both Arab and Jewish populations) be apportioned between an Arab and Jewish state. The Jewish side was to receive a territorially smaller portion in the mid-west and north, from Mount Carmel to south of Be'er Tuvia, as well as the Jezreel Valley and the Galilee, while the Arab state linked with Trans-Jordan was to receive territory in the south and mid-east which included Judea, Samaria, and the sizable Negev desert.

The report stated that Jews contribute more per capita to the revenues of Palestine than the Arabs, and the Government has thereby been enabled to maintain public services for the Arabs at a higher level than would otherwise have been possible. Partition would mean, on the one hand, that the Arab Area would no longer profit from the taxable capacity of the Jewish Area. On the other hand, (1) the Jews would acquire a new right of sovereignty in the Jewish Area; (2) that Area, as we have defined it, would be larger than the existing area of Jewish land and settlement; (3) the Jews would be freed from their present liability for helping to promote the welfare of Arabs outside that Area. It is suggested, therefore, that the Jewish State should pay a subvention to the Arab State when Partition comes into effect. Citing the separation of Sind from Bombay and of Burma from the Indian Empire, as precedents for such financial arrangement.

The report stated that if Partition is to be effective in promoting a final settlement it must mean more than drawing a frontier and establishing two States. Sooner or later there should be a transfer of land and, as far as possible, an exchange of population. Citing as precedent the 1923 Greek and Turkish exchange, which addressed the constant friction between their minorities. While noting the absence of cultivable land to resettle the Arabs, which would necessitate the execution of large-scale plans for irrigation, water-storage, and development in Trans-Jordan, Beersheba and the Jordan Valley. The population exchange, if carried out, would have involved the transfer of up to 225,000 Arabs and 1,250 Jews.

The Arab reaction
Although some factions of the Palestinian Arab leadership initially supported partition, a wide spectrum of Palestinian Arab society rejected the plan. There was widespread public opposition including in the media and by religious figures. According to Henry Laurens, the Arabs saw the publication of the plan as a ringing disavowal of every key undertaking the Mandatory authorities had made since its inception, that there would be no separate Jewish state, no land expropriations and no expulsions of people. The proposed land swaps and population transfers were seen as annulling and inverting a century of economic development of the littoral region, with, apart from Jaffa and Gaza, Palestinians dispossessed of the essential rural and urban heritage that had evolved over the preceding century of coastal development. Jerusalem was placed outside the future Palestinian state. Palestinians were shocked both by the declaration their land would be divided, and that they themselves would be denied statehood (but only a union with Transjordan), while the Jewish state, extending over a third of the country, would absorb the whole of the Galilee, where an overwhelming percentage of the land was owned by Arabs and Jews had only a slender presence. In compensation, the Arabs were offered valuable areas to the east of Jordan and the southern portion of the Beisan sub-district where irrigation would have been possible. Indignation was widespread with Arabs complaining that the Plan had allotted to them "the barren mountains", while the Jews would receive most of the five cultivable plains, the maritime Plain, the Acre Plain, the Marj Ibn 'Amir, Al Huleh and the Jordan Valley For the Arabs, the plan envisaged giving Zionists the best land, with 82% of Palestine's principal export, citrus fruit, consigned to Jewish control.

The idea of transfer of population met strong opposition. Under the Peel proposal, before transfer, there would be 1,250 Jews in the proposed Arab state, while there would be 225,000 Arabs in the Jewish state. The Peel proposal suggested a population transfer based on the model of Greece and Turkey in 1923, which would have been "in the last resort ... compulsory". It was understood on all sides that there was no way of dividing the land which would not have meant a large number of Arabs (a large minority or even a majority) in the land designated for a Jewish state.

At the leadership level, there were tensions between the factions. Amin al-Husseini, who according to his biographer was an "authoritarian who could not tolerate opposition", feared the recommended merger with Transjordan under the rule of King Abdullah. The latter stood to gain much from partition; reaching an accord with the Nashashibi family of notables could have consolidated his rule and left Husseini powerless. The Palestinians also opposed being consigned to the far more economically feeble society of the Transjordan. The al-Husayni family therefore initially unilaterally boycotted the Peel Commission, which the Nashashibis (who had strong roots in both the littoral region and Jerusalem) and other Arab leaders considered a foolhardy strategy, while the Nashashibis and Jordan's King Abdullah initially supported partition, a rift which led the Nashashibis to leave the Arab Higher Committee (AHC). In 1937, the US Consul General at Jerusalem reported to the State Department that Husseini, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, refused the principle of partition and declined to consider it. The Consul said the emir Abdullah urged acceptance on the ground that realities must be faced, but wanted modification of the proposed boundaries and Arab administrations in the neutral enclave. The Consul also noted that Nashashibi sidestepped the principle, but was willing to negotiate for favorable modifications. Amin al-Husseini was persuaded by the other Arab leaders to testify to the Commission.

However, the wide opposition to the plan in the Arab community led to the Nashashibis making a U-turn, publishing their rejection of the plan two days before the AHC. They argued that the creation of a Jewish state and lack of independent Palestine was a betrayal of the word given by Britain, and emphatically rejected the idea of giving land to the Jews. This objection was accompanied by a proposal that Britain adhere to its promise of a sovereign democratic state with constitutional guarantees for the rights of the Jewish minority. The Plan was also repudiated at the Bloudan Conference convened in Syria on 8 September, where parties from all over the Arab world rejected both the partition and establishment of a Jewish state in the Palestine Mandate.

The Jewish reaction
On 20 August 1937, the Twentieth Zionist Congress expressed that, at the time of the Balfour Declaration, it was understood that the Jewish National Home was to be established in the whole of historic Palestine, including Trans-Jordan, and that inherent in the Declaration was the possibility of the evolution of Palestine into a Jewish State.

While some factions at the Congress supported the Peel Report, arguing that later the borders could be adjusted, others opposed the proposal because the Jewish State would be too small. The Congress decided to reject the specific borders recommended by the Peel Commission, but empowered its executive to negotiate a more favorable plan for a Jewish State in Palestine. In the wake of the Peel Commission the Jewish Agency set up committees to begin planning for the state. At the time, it had already created a complete administrative apparatus amounting to "a Government existing side by side with the Mandatory Government."

At the same Zionist Congress, David Ben-Gurion, then chairman of the executive committee of the Jewish Agency for Palestine, told those in attendance that, though "there could be no question...of giving up any part of the Land of Israel,... it was arguable that the ultimate goal would be achieved most quickly by accepting the Peel proposals." University of Arizona professor Charles D. Smith suggests that, "Weizmann and Ben-Gurion did not feel they had to be bound by the borders proposed [by the Peel Commission]. These could be considered temporary boundaries to be expanded in the future." Ben-Gurion saw the plan as only a stage in the realisation of a larger Jewish state.

The two main Jewish leaders, Chaim Weizmann and Ben-Gurion, had convinced the Zionist Congress to approve equivocally the Peel recommendations as a basis for more negotiation.

Aftermath
The Peel Plan proved to be the master partition plan, on which all those that followed were either based, or to which they were compared, ushering in a fundamental change in the British outlook on Palestine's future.

Following the report's publication the British Government released a statement of policy, agreeing with its conclusions and proposing to seek from the League of Nations authority to proceed with a plan of partition. In March 1938, the British appointed the Woodhead Commission to "examine the Peel Commission plan in detail and to recommend an actual partition plan". The Woodhead Commission considered three different plans, one of which was based on the Peel plan. Reporting in 1938, the Commission rejected the Peel plan primarily on the grounds that it could not be implemented without a massive forced transfer of Arabs (an option that the British government had already ruled out). With dissent from some of its members, the Commission instead recommended a plan that would leave the Galilee under British mandate, but emphasized serious problems with it that included a lack of financial self-sufficiency of the proposed Arab State. The British Government accompanied the publication of the Woodhead Report by a statement of policy rejecting partition as impracticable due to "political, administrative and financial difficulties".

At the Bloudan Conference of 1937, parties from all over the Arab world rejected both the partition and establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine, thus claiming all of Palestine.

title: Peel Commission


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