text:
Bishop score

Bishop score, also Bishop's score or cervix score, is a pre-labor scoring system to assist in predicting whether induction of labor will be required. It has also been used to assess the likelihood of spontaneous preterm delivery. The Bishop score was developed by Professor Emeritus of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Edward Bishop, and was first published in August 1964.

Components
The total score is calculated by assessing the following five components on manual vaginal examination by a trained professional:

 * Cervical dilation in centimeters
 * Cervical effacement as a percentage
 * Cervical consistency by provider assessment/judgement
 * Cervical position
 * Fetal station, the position of the top of the fetal head in relation to the pelvic bones, specifically the ischial spines.

The Bishop score grades patients who would be most likely to achieve a successful induction. The duration of labor is inversely correlated with the Bishop score; “A Bishop score of 9 conveys a high likelihood for a successful induction. For research purposes, a Bishop score of 4 or less identifies an unfavorable cervix and may be an indication for cervical ripening.”

Excerpt From Williams Obstetrics, 25th Edition F. Gary Cunningham, Kenneth J. Leveno, Steven L. Bloom, Jodi S. Dashe, Barbara L. Hoffman, Brian M. Casey and Catherine Y. Spong This material may be protected by copyright.

They can be remembered with the mnemonic: Call PEDS For Parturition = Cervical Position, Effacement, Dilation, Softness; Fetal Station.

Scoring
The examiner assigns a score to each component of 0 to 2 or 0 to 3. The highest possible score is 13 and the lowest possible score is 0.

Interpretation
A score of 5 or less suggests that labour is unlikely to start on its own during the next few days. A score of 9 or more indicates that labour will most likely commence spontaneously in the next few days. Scores between 5 and 9 require additional consideration and professional judgement for clinical management.

A Bishop's score 6 or less often indicates that induction (e.g., with controlled-release prostaglandin E2/prostin gel [Cervidil], intravaginal gel [Prostin], intracervical gel [Prepidil]) is unlikely to be successful. Some sources indicate that only a score of 8 or greater is reliably predictive of a successful induction.

The score can be recalculated as the pregnancy progresses.

Modified Bishop score
According to the Modified Bishop's pre-induction cervical scoring system, effacement has been replaced by cervical length in cm, with scores as follows: 0 for >3 cm, 1 for >2 cm, 2 for >1 cm, 3 for >0 cm. Cervical length may be easier and more accurate to measure and have less inter-examiner variability.

Another modification for the Bishop's score is the modifiers. Points are added or subtracted according to special circumstances as follows:
 * One point is added to the total score for:
 * Existence of pre-eclampsia
 * Each previous delivery
 * One point is subtracted from the total score for:
 * Postdate/post-term pregnancy
 * Nulliparity (no previous vaginal deliveries)
 * PPROM; preterm premature (prelabor) rupture of membranes

title: Bishop score


text:
Talk:Abdul Sattar Edhi

Clean Up
The article was rather non-encyclopedic, including a fair bit of flowery language and material that could be taken as non-neutral (i.e. POV). I have tidied it up as best I can, reflecting the factual (non-opinion) information in the references. While Edhi appears to be a fantastic individual who has done an amazing amount for the poor and needy, it is important to remember the purpose of the encyclopedia (presenting facts and not opinions and praise) and Wikipedia policy (that all information must be verifiable). This particularly important for biographies of living people. Wikipeterproject (talk) 18:40, 4 May 2010 (UTC)
 * Cannot say the article is thoroughly edited but I removed almost all the text that does not belong in an encyclopedia and changed the structure slightly to remove the flowery language. Still need great deal of cop-editing. For now I have removed the POV tag. Samar  ( Talk  .  Contributions ) 13:33, 11 December 2011 (UTC)

External links modified
Hello fellow Wikipedians,

I have just added archive links to 2 one external links on Abdul Sattar Edhi. Please take a moment to review my edit. If necessary, add after the link to keep me from modifying it. Alternatively, you can add to keep me off the page altogether. I made the following changes:
 * Added archive https://web.archive.org/20090104225524/http://www.dawn.com:80/2006/11/12/local1.htm to http://www.dawn.com/2006/11/12/local1.htm
 * Added archive https://web.archive.org/20091027060413/http://www.thenews.com.pk:80/daily_detail.asp?id=159676 to http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=159676

When you have finished reviewing my changes, please set the checked parameter below to true to let others know.

Cheers.—cyberbot II  Talk to my owner :Online 21:32, 11 February 2016 (UTC)

Quote deletion
Deletion of quotes of Edhi from his page is a misunderstanding. Manifesting his code of life stating that "My religion is humanitarianism, which is the basis of every religion in the world." In fact this quote is core of his life he followed during his life. So this quote be restored. For reference page Philanthropy may be studied. Nannadeem (talk) 14:09, 13 July 2016 (UTC)
 * I agree. I wanted to find a quote by Edhi. I looked in wikiquote but didn't find an entry on Edhi -- maybe someone should write one! His idea is expressed here as, "No religion is above humanity." Another version is: "No religion is higher than humanity." Oaklandguy (talk) 08:45, 17 July 2016 (UTC)

Nannadeem (talk) 19:21, 19 July 2016 (UTC)

Date of birth?
The article says born 28. february 1928 but source of this says 1. January 1928? Either the source is wrong and should be removed or the date of birth in the article should be corrected. --Thomas (talk) 08:24, 28 February 2017 (UTC)
 * Confusing. Several media reports earlier reported he was born on 1 January. Someone added his DOB as 28 February without any credible source on 16 January. I wonder if Google took his DOB from Wikipedia, if that's the case, it would be shocking. Now everyone including those who earlier reported his DOB as 1 January reporting that he was born 28 February. Wikipedia in other languages, including Urdu Wikipedia, still list his DOB as 1 January. --Saqib (talk) 08:54, 28 February 2017 (UTC)
 * Shocking? Of course Google does that, like everyone else. However, the 1 January date is also dubious. That may have been his "legal" birthday, but it appears he himself didn't know his real one (see https://books.google.com/books?redir_esc=y&id=hwHlAAAAMAAJ&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=1928). Mewulwe (talk) 10:02, 28 February 2017 (UTC)
 * So how to maintain his DOB it on Wikipedia? As per latest news reports (28 February) or older ones (1 January) or what? --Saqib (talk) 10:47, 28 February 2017 (UTC)
 * As it is now, without any specific date. Mewulwe (talk) 11:15, 28 February 2017 (UTC)

 * Apologies for changing it before checking the talk page. Thanks to Saqib for reverting. Scolaire (talk) 12:28, 28 February 2017 (UTC)
 * No worries Scolaire! : I approached The Sun, Wired and Metro over this issue and all of them have made some changes to their news pieces. Wired wrote: "Previous reports, including those surrounding his funeral, state Edhi was born on January 1. An obituary in The Guardian doesn't list a birthday date, simply putting circa 1926. The date January 1 can, at times, be used in place of a specific date when only a year is known, but this tends to be avoided due to the confusion it can cause. The Wikipedia entry was then updated following the release of the Google Doodle referencing various places which use January 1 as the date. However, Google has since told WIRED it got the February 28 date directly from Edhi's family.".

 * The Sun story reads "Google says Edhi celebrated his birthday on February 28, however reports suggest he was in fact born on January 1."
 * Metro noted : "There has been uncertainty about when his birthday is. Some have reported it as 1 January in the past – however, now it is widely believed to be 28 February."
 * But The Nation reported today that Bilquis Edhi, the wife of Edhi in an interview to a TV channel said 'We never even celebrated his birthday while he was alive. We were unaware of the day he was born." This makes thing uncertain and the birth mystery goes on. --Saqib (talk) 17:41, 28 February 2017 (UTC)
 * I think that only listing the year may be the best solution given the sources. The "Date of birth" subsection is probably undue. --Ronz (talk) 22:38, 2 March 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't see harm in having a separate section on DOB. DOB matter received press coverage so why not ? I think it gives due weight and well explain the sides. --Saqib (talk) 22:45, 2 March 2017 (UTC)
 * I agree, but it's much too large, much too detailed.
 * While having a section may be due, I think some if the information might be better in a footnote as in Lee_Grant. --Ronz (talk) 16:27, 3 March 2017 (UTC)
 * No worries. Plunge forward and do it as you like. --Saqib (talk) 16:35, 3 March 2017 (UTC)
 * If someone wants to work on it, I'm happy to help. Otherwise I'll wait until the RfC is closed. --Ronz (talk) 17:50, 3 March 2017 (UTC)

External links modified
Hello fellow Wikipedians,

I have just modified 3 external links on Abdul Sattar Edhi. Please take a moment to review my edit. If you have any questions, or need the bot to ignore the links, or the page altogether, please visit this simple FaQ for additional information. I made the following changes:
 * Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20161021135535/http://www.radio.gov.pk/08-Jul-2016/edhi-in-critical-condition-shifted-to-ventilator to http://www.radio.gov.pk/08-Jul-2016/edhi-in-critical-condition-shifted-to-ventilator
 * Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20160710140925/http://www.radio.gov.pk/08-Jul-2016/edhi-in-critical-condition-shifted-to-ventilator to http://www.radio.gov.pk/08-Jul-2016/edhi-in-critical-condition-shifted-to-ventilator
 * Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20160315175949/http://www.edhi.org/about-us/awards/national-awards to http://www.edhi.org/about-us/awards/national-awards

When you have finished reviewing my changes, you may follow the instructions on the template below to fix any issues with the URLs.

Cheers.— InternetArchiveBot  (Report bug) 14:25, 25 December 2017 (UTC)

Time in London?
The section on the foundation states "During his time in London, Edhi resolved to dedicate his life to aiding the poor". This makes it sound as though the idea for the foundation was conceived at a time that he lived in London, which would be incorrect. As far as I'm aware his humanitarian work and resolve to establish a charity while in Karachi where he spent the majority of his life. 84.67.71.142 (talk) 12:56, 21 March 2021 (UTC)

English
Abdul sattar edhi 39.38.171.255 (talk) 11:39, 22 May 2024 (UTC)

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

title: Talk:Abdul Sattar Edhi


text: Category:American civil servants

title: Category:American civil servants


text:
User talk:Oolah

TheLadders
Please don't delete votes for deletion headers. If you think that the article should be kept, please go to the linked page and discuss it there. Also, do you have permission to upload that copyrighted image? RickK 20:14, Feb 15, 2005 (UTC)

title: User talk:Oolah


text:
Vauxhall Motors F.C.

Vauxhall Motors Football Club is a football club based in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, England. The club are currently members of the and play at Rivacre Park, known as the vanEupen Arena for sponsorship reasons.

It was originally the works team of the Vauxhall Ellesmere Port Car Plant. It had much success in its local leagues and fought its way up to semi-professional status. It was announced in March 2014 that the club had tendered its resignation from the Football Conference, with effect from the end of season 2013–14. The club took over their reserve team's place back in the West Cheshire League Division One for the 2014–15 season but has since reached the North West Counties League Premier Division.

It is generally regarded as the local team of Ellesmere Port, although two other teams, Ellesmere Port and Ellesmere Port Town, play further down the pyramid in the Chester & District League.

History
Vauxhall Motors F.C. was founded in 1963, shortly after the opening of the new Vauxhall Motors Car Plant in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire. Early in its history, it played in the Ellesmere Port League and the Wirral Combination, but it soon grew too strong for those leagues. By 1970, the club had achieved several promotions and played on the company-owned Hooton Park. By 1987 however, it had opened its own ground, Rivacre Park, where the club plays today. The opening of the new ground was especially important as then England manager Bobby Robson brought a number of former international stars for the opening game.

On the pitch, the club also started finding some success, winning its first West Cheshire League championship in the 1985–86 season. Soon after, they reached their first Cheshire Amateur Cup and triumphed in the Wirral Senior Cup. These accomplishments did not go unnoticed, as the club successfully applied to join the North West Counties League for 1987–88. They easily won the league's Second Division in their second season at that level, and finished fourth in the First Division in 1989–90. Despite expectations to challenge for the league title the next season, the team only finished fifth, but won the North West Counties League Cup in the process, defeating Darwen 2–0.

Soon after its fifth-place finish, the board took the decision to move back down to the West Cheshire League where the club finished in third place in the two following seasons. However, in 1994–95, the club won both divisions of the league – only the third time any club had achieved that in the 103-year history of the league. Soon after, they were accepted back into the North West Counties League. Just as before, they easily won the Second Division of the NWCL, but did not have the best of seasons in Division One, although they did reach the semi-final of the Cheshire Senior Cup. It continued to play in Division One, and reached the final of the NWCL Cup, losing to Kidsgrove Athletic in a closely contested match.

The 1998–99 season was the team's best by far to that point, reaching the fifth round of the FA Vase and earning its best ever league position in third place, and won the NWCL Cup. However, the next season was even better, with the team reaching the semi-finals of the FA Vase and winning the NWCL title, thus earning a spot in Division One of the Northern Premier League. The reserves also enjoyed a successful season, winning a number of smaller trophies.

The club enjoyed considerable success in the Northern Premier League as well, earning promotion to the Northern Premier League Premier Division in their first season, and finishing in second place in the league. The team continued to play well, with its high point coming when they defeated Queens Park Rangers in their first appearance in the FA Cup first round, before losing in the next round in a televised match against Macclesfield Town. The season after, the club hired manager Owen Brown and they earned promotion to Conference North when that league was founded in 2004.

The club finished twenty-first in the 2007–08 season, and were due to be relegated but after Nuneaton Borough's liquidation and the Conference's decision to expel Boston United, the club were reprieved. In the 2009–10 season, the club finished twentieth. However, because of the earlier resignation of Farsley Celtic and the subsequent relegation of Northwich Victoria following financial troubles, Vauxhall Motors was again given a reprieve from relegation.

In the 2010–11 season, they again qualified for the first round proper of the FA Cup, but were unable to repeat the success of eight years previously, although Josh Wilson scored in the 38th minute, his header was disallowed, drawing 0–0 against Hartlepool United before going on to lose 1–0 in the replay. On 26 May 2011 it was announced that, because of a promotion at work, Carl Macauley was stepping down from his role as manager and that his assistant Anthony Wright would be taking over the reins with former Notts County, Peterborough United, Burscough and Vauxhall Motors striker Gary Martindale as his number two. However results didn't go as hoped despite assembling one of the strongest squads the club had seen, resulting in Carl Macauley making a shock return to the Rivacre Park hotseat in November 2011 with Anthony Wright reverting to Assistant Manager and Gary Martindale to First Team Coach.

In March 2014 the club announced its intention to withdraw from the Conference North because of "ever-increasing costs" leaving the club with no alternative but to return to the West Cheshire League to stabilise and rebuild once again for the future. A week after the announcement long-serving manager Carl Macauley left to become Assistant Manager to Steve Burr at Chester F.C., leaving Anthony Wright and Gary Martindale in charge once again until the end of the season.

Only four of the founder members of Conference North remained in the league for its first ten seasons: Gainsborough Trinity, Harrogate Town, Stalybridge Celtic and Vauxhall Motors. Vauxhall's league positions in those season's were 15th, 18th, 15th, 21st, 11th, 20th, 17th, 18th, 12th and 18th. On 26 April 2014 Motors played their last game in Conference North for the foreseeable future losing 2–0 at home to Solihull Moors.

In May 2014 former Vauxhall favourite Alan Schumacker was appointed as first team manager. The former Motors defender was a member of Alvin McDonald's all conquering North West Counties League championship side and had been reserve team manager since the summer of 2010. He appointed Kevin Baker as his assistant and Steve Foulkes as coach for the coming season.

At the end of the 2015–16 season manager Alan Schumacker and his assistant Kevin Baker left the club and were replaced by former Motors’ assistant manager Anthony Wright and former Mersey Royal Youth team manager Joe Wright as his assistant. However, in October Anthony Wright had to step down because of family commitments and a month later Joe Wright left the club.

In November 2016 the former Burscough captain, ex A.F.C. Liverpool assistant manager and Prescot Cables Reserve team manager Karl Bell was appointed the club's new manager. Bell left the role in May 2018 and was replaced by Cammell Laird 1907 F.C. manager Michael McGraa.

The 2018–19 season saw the club miss out on promotion to the North West Counties League Premier Division by points per game after finishing second to champions Warrington Rylands. The 2019–20 once again saw Vauxhalls denied promotion, despite it already being secured with ten games to go, the season havinf being declared null and void because of te coronavirus pandemic. Vauxhalls were once again atop the North West Counties League First Division South at Christmas in the 2020–21, when the season was curtailed once again because of COVID-19. However, restructuring of the English pyramid system meant that the club finally secured promotion to the North West Counties League Premier Division for the 2021–22 season via PPG from the previous two seasons. The 2022―23 season saw the Motormen winning the Premier Division championship and being promoted to Division One West of the Northern Premier League.

Colours and badge
Vauxhall Motors' colours are white with a strip of blue for the top and navy blue shorts with navy blue socks. The away kit is yellow shirts, green shorts and yellow socks. The kits have been sponsored by car retailer Lookers Wirral since 2000.

The team badge is the same as the logo of its parent company, Vauxhall Motors.

Stadium
Rivacre Park has been the home of Vauxhall since the 1986 season, the club having formerly played at Hooton Park. It has a capacity of 3,300 with covered stand and terracing, with space for 350 seated guests. The stand has been refitted with new seats along with a step in the terrace at the golf course end of the ground. A new toilet block, disabled toilet and a new turnstile block have also been added. To increase capacity, more barriers have been installed to the covered terrace and the club shop has since been re-opened after the roof was damaged in a storm. The ground also has a large sports and social club. This was originally for employees of the Vauxhall plant but is also open to the public on match days etc.

Records

 * Highest League Attendance: 1,752 versus Chester F.C. – 30 October 2012
 * Highest FA Cup Attendance: 1,109 versus Hartlepool United (FA Cup First round replay) – 16 November 2010
 * Highest FA Trophy Attendance: 1,104 versus Northwich Victoria (FA Trophy 4th round) – 2 February 2002
 * Biggest Home Win: 12–2 versus Blackpool Mechanics, 9 December 1995
 * Biggest Home Defeat: 6–0 versus Kettering Town, 1 March 2008; 6–0 versus Macclesfield, 22 February 2022
 * Biggest Away Win: 6–0 versus Hinckley United, 5 February 2013
 * Biggest Away Defeat: 6–0 versus Kettering Town, 25 August 2007
 * All-Time Leading Goalscorer: Terry Fearns – 111 goals
 * Most Appearances: Carl Nesbitt – 520 appearances (500 starts, 20 as sub)
 * Best League Position: 11th, Conference North, 2008–09
 * Best FA Cup Performance: 2nd round proper, 2002–03
 * Best FA Trophy Performance: 4th round proper, 2001–02
 * Best FA Vase Performance: Semi-finals, 1999–00

Current squad

 * As of 2 July 2024.

Notable players
Several players have gone on to play in the Football League, including
 * Gregg Blundell – Formerly with Doncaster Rovers. Currently physiotherapist at Liverpool.
 * Danny Collins – Formerly with Sunderland, Stoke City, Rotherham United, Nottingham Forest and Grimsby Town.
 * Mark Duffy – Formerly with Doncaster Rovers, Scunthorpe United, Morecambe F.C. and Birmingham City. Currently playing at Fleetwood Town F.C.
 * Steve McNulty – Formerly with Fleetwood Town, Tranmere Rovers and Luton Town. Currently playing at Witton Albion.
 * Mark Roberts – Formerly with Crewe Alexandra, Stevenage, Fleetwood Town and Cambridge United. Retired from Warrington Town in 2022.
 * Paul Taylor – Formerly with Peterborough United and Stevenage. Currently without a club.
 * Ben Tollitt – Formerly with Portsmouth. Currently playing at AFC Fylde.
 * Lloyd Saxton – Spent youth career in Liverpool, Bolton Wanderers, Stoke City. Being professional since 2006, he joined Plymouth Argyle and Bradford City. Since 2012, he joined Swedish football. Ange IF. On 2015, he moved to Allsvenskan and played for GIF Sundsvall. Currently without a club.
 * Cole Stockton – Formerly with Hearts. Currently with Morecambe.

Honours

 * Northern Premier League
 * Premier Division Runners-up 2001–02
 * Division One Runners-up 2000–01
 * North West Counties League
 * Premier Division Champions 2022―23
 * Division One Champions 1999–2000
 * Division Two Champions 1988–89, 1995–96
 * Floodlit Trophy Winners 1999–2000
 * League Cup Winners 1990–91, 1998–99
 * West Cheshire League
 * Division One Champions 1985–86, 1994–95, 2002–03 (Reserves)
 * Division Two Champions 1994–95 (Reserves)
 * Division Two Bowl Winners 1967–68
 * Pyke Cup
 * Winners 1999–2000 (Reserves), 2004–05 (Reserves)
 * Runners-up 1972–73
 * Cheshire County F.A.
 * Amateur Cup Winners 2013–14 (Reserves)
 * Runners-up 1993–94, 2000–01, 2004–05
 * Wirral F.A.
 * Senior Cup Winners 1986–87, 2010–11 (Reserves), 2012–13 (Reserves), 2014–15
 * Runners-up 1982–83, 1994–95, 1999–2000 (Reserves)

title: Vauxhall Motors F.C.


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Jan Stursa

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was no consensus. Article defaults to "keep." Joyous 16:32, Feb 27, 2005 (UTC)

Jan Stursa
The article reads "Jan Stursa (1880 - 1925) was a Czechoslovakian sculptor." End of article. With 862 google hits is this figure "notable enough"? Where does the bar of notability lie for foreign sculptors and artists? GRider\talk 20:16, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)

 * Keep. He's got an entry in the Grove Art database, so if he's notable enough for them, he's notable enough for us. Gamaliel 20:19, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, article does not establish notability. Megan1967 06:04, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep and expand. The article isn't much, but he is clearly a significant artist. The website of the City Gallery of Prague mentions him as one of "the founding personalities of Czech sculpture". The Czech National Gallery, in a very brief text on 19th century art, speaks of "the turn-of-the-century generation led by Jan Štursa". And what does his "foreignness" have to do with anything? Would or should the bar of notability be lower if he was born in Liverpool? / u p p l a n d 07:58, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep and expand. The Columbia Encyclopedia has an article on this guy although it is a stub at best. I hope we could do better. Capitalistroadster 10:06, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, nothing much in this stubby article. JamesBurns 05:54, 27 Feb 2005 (UTC)

This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.


text:
Soviet submarine K-56 (1965)

K-56 was a Project 675 (also known by the NATO reporting name of Echo II class) nuclear submarine of the Soviet Navy.

Her keel was laid down by the Sevmash shipyard. She was commissioned into the Soviet Pacific Fleet.

Collision incident
On 13 June 1973, K-56 had completed test launches of her SS-N-3 Shaddock missiles in the Sea of Japan and was returning to port accompanied by the Kresta I-class cruiser Vladivostok. She was carrying observers on board, including her Division Commander, Captain First Rank L.F. Suchkov, civilian technicians from Leningrad, and a team from her sister boat, SOVIET SUBMARINE K-23, that included her commanding officer, Captain Second Rank L. Homenko. These 36 guests were housed in the second compartment.

At approximately 01:00, the boat, running on the surface, rounded Cape Povorotny in Peter the Great Gulf. The navigation crew noted a surface contact on radar about 75 km ahead, moving toward them at 9 kn. Since that was the only contact, and it would be about two hours before the submarine and the contact's combined speeds would bring them near each other, the captain felt no concern.

The boat's RLS "Albatross" radar set had been used at full power throughout the day for the missile launches and now needed maintenance, which required that it be placed in "hot standby." The captain gave permission for the radar to be secured, and relied on the lookouts to spot any hazards.

Two hours later, the radar was re-energized and four contacts were immediately detected. The operators became confused, attempting to plot courses for the contacts. Three minutes after the radar came on, lookouts spotted a ship's navigational lights. The bridge ordered evasive action, but two minutes later, the research ship Academician Berg, traveling at 9 kn, struck K-56 on the starboard side, tearing a four-meter hole through the hull into the first and second compartments.

As the second compartment rapidly flooded, the officers within shut the watertight doors to prevent flooding the adjacent compartments. When the seawater flooded the battery well, many of the officers and civilians in the second compartment were killed by chlorine gas.

The 22 sailors in the first compartment were able to fight the flooding and retain a pocket of air until K-56's captain ran his boat aground on a sandbar.

The next day, salvage ships lifted K-56 from the sand bar onto pontoons, and towed her to dock.

The investigating board ruled that the collision of Academician Berg with K-56 was a "navigation incident with serious consequences."

A civilian expert from Leningrad, 16 officers, five warrant officers, and five sailors were killed.

title: Soviet submarine K-56 (1965)


text: User talk:208.190.28.50

title: User talk:208.190.28.50


text:
User:Harmonica~enwiki

=About Me= I write about videogames and films, develop software, and paint. I talk about art with people, and try to push things forward.

If you have a question about any of my contributions, please feel free to email me :)

title: User:Harmonica~enwiki


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Mr. Anderson

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was KEEP. —Korath (Talk) 10:51, Feb 28, 2005 (UTC)

Mr. Anderson
Not notable Brookie 20:18, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge with Beavis and Butt-head. Carrp | Talk 20:31, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep. "Mr. Anderson" is one of the 9 Beavis and Butthead cartoon characters that have their own separate articles. There are many cartoon characters in Wikipedia, from the Simpsons characters, to the King of the Hill characters, to the Looney Tunes characters, that have their own separate articles. Zzyzx11 22:26, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Speedy keep. Agree with Zzyzx11, this is also too large to merge into the B&B article.  —RaD Man (talk) 02:13, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Ambiguous title; I had assumed upon seeing it that it was yet another Matrix reference. Ought to be Mr. Anderson (Beavis and Butt-head) or something similar.  Rename and keep.  -Sean Curtin 02:56, Feb 16, 2005 (UTC)
 * I second that - or at least The Matrix should me mentioned in the article, for disambig purposes. No vote otherwise. Radiant! 08:50, Feb 16, 2005 (UTC)
 * No vote; I don't know enough about Beaviscruft. Pending the outcome of of this VfD, I have added a disambig notice to the article for people looking for the character from The Matrix.  --TenOfAllTrades | Talk 16:14, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * would make a lovely subpage to beavis & butthead. but since that's not allowed (why?) rename it & keep per sean Wolfman 03:02, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, as per my previous votes on Beavis and Butt-head characters. Megan1967 04:48, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge to a list of characters on Beavis and Butthead. -- Riffsyphon1024 04:51, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge to List of dudes in Beavis and Butthead (and disambig) or keep (and disambig). Kappa 09:20, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep and disambiguate. Grue 18:05, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Disambiguate. ComCat 02:20, 19 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep and disambiguate. Stereotek 12:09, 20 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep and disambiguate. --Leadingbrand 11:48, 25 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, spurious notability. JamesBurns 07:04, 27 Feb 2005 (UTC)

This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.


text:
Fruit of Islam

The Fruit of Islam (FOI) is the security and disciplinary wing of the Nation of Islam (NOI). It has also been described as its paramilitary wing. The Fruit of Islam wear distinctive blue, brown, or white uniforms and caps and have units at all NOI temples. Louis Farrakhan, as head of the Nation of Islam, is commander-in-chief of the Fruit of Islam, and his son, Mustapha Farrakhan Sr., is second in command as the Supreme Captain. The women's counterpart to the Fruit of Islam is Muslim Girls Training (MGT).

The Fruit of Islam draws its membership from male members in Nation of Islam mosques. All men registered in the Nation of Islam as members are by default a part of the FOI. All Nation of Islam mosques have a branch of the FOI headed by a local captain who is appointed by the local minister. While NOI does not release membership figures, estimates made in 2007 for total membership in the NOI range from 30,000 to 50,000.

History
The Fruit of Islam is one of the original institutions of the NOI, created by its founder W. D. Fard in 1933, shortly before his final disappearance. The men, mostly young, active members, were considered the "fruit" of the new nation. At the time the FOI was created to help defend the members of the NOI and all others. It existed until the death of Elijah Muhammad in 1975. When Warith Deen Muhammad took control of the NOI he disbanded the FOI. The organization was then reorganized by Louis Farrakhan when he reestablished the NOI.

NOI security agency
In 1988, the NOI created a separate security agency using members of the FOI. The agency received contracts primarily to patrol and staff public housing complexes in tough urban areas like Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles and received at least $20 million in the 1990s for security work. NOI Security had notable successes in Washington, D.C., projects particularly, but had difficulty in others and faced opposition by some members of the United States Congress and the Anti-Defamation League, among others. It also faced scrutiny from federal agencies for racial and gender preference in hiring and from the Internal Revenue Service for failure to withhold taxes from employees.

Mission statement
The FOI says its mission is to "teach civilization, and teach what they know to those who do not know". An NOI website urging men to enroll in the FOI describes members as "brave fighter[s] for Allah" engaged in "a unique war for the very heart and soul of a people". The site explains, "The responsibility of the F.O.I. is that of a head of house: protection, provision, and maintenance of the Nation of Islam (all Original People). The F.O.I. are militant in the sense that our operations are done as a unit".

title: Fruit of Islam


text:
Category:Schools in Solihull

Schools and colleges located in the Metropolitan Borough of Solihull.

title: Category:Schools in Solihull


text:
User talk:MarkHenderson

Welcome!

Hello,, and welcome to Wikipedia! Thank you for your contributions. I hope you like the place and decide to stay. Here are a few good links for newcomers: I hope you enjoy editing here and being a Wikipedian! Please sign your name on talk pages using four tildes (~~); this will automatically produce your name and the date. If you need help, check out Where to ask a question, ask me on my talk page, or place  on your talk page and someone will show up shortly to answer your questions. Again, welcome! Carrp | Talk 20:19, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * The five pillars of Wikipedia
 * How to edit a page
 * Help pages
 * Tutorial
 * How to write a great article
 * Manual of Style

title: User talk:MarkHenderson


text: User talk:198.105.45.18

title: User talk:198.105.45.18


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Janet Morassutti

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was merged/redirected

Janet Morassutti
Vanity? The wife of a member of a small indie rock band. 30 hits on google. GRider\talk 20:21, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC) This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.
 * Delete. Not notable on her own, and the band itself barely seems to be. — Beginning 02:25, Feb 16, 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete. Wile E. Heresiarch 05:37, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep, but with reservations. Article needs expansion. Megan1967 06:47, 18 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete. Gamaliel 07:23, 18 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Not vanity, as I created this article. Rheostatics are in no sense "barely notable" -- they're one of the most notable Canadian rock bands in existence. (And if you don't buy that, consider that they placed two albums within the top five in Chart magazine's "Best Canadian Albums of All Time" reader poll, behind only Joni Mitchell, Neil Young and Sloan, and ahead of bands like Rush and The Tragically Hip.) I was admittedly ambivalent about doing an article for her, because of her limited notability on her own, but felt that the fact that she has been credited as both a writer and a performer on the band's albums made it likely that someone would encounter her name and search to find out who she is. Merge and redirect to Dave Bidini. I'll even do that myself. But she is enough of a potential search topic that she needs to be noted somewhere, if only in a "who is this obscure person getting credited next to Neil Peart, Barenaked Ladies and Sarah Harmer?" kind of way (cf. Whale Music, The Story of Harmelodia.) Bearcat 23:51, 20 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merged and redirected. Bearcat 00:48, 21 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep and do not merge. According to Google she is more notable than Dave Bidini. JamesBurns 06:00, 27 Feb 2005 (UTC)


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Philosophy of alternative medicine

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was article deleted, no content needed merging. Cyrius|✎ 05:46, 21 Feb 2005 (UTC)

Philosophy of alternative medicine
This article was originally redirected by Snowspinner because it was a List rather than an article. Even though User:Snowspinner has no interest in alternative medicine, Snowspinner decided to make it into a stub article. It should be changed back to a redirect, otherwise all the old links will erronously be sent to this new stub. John Gohde This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.
 * Redirect to List of miscellaneous topics related to alternative medicine -- John Gohde 20:41, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Oops! I wrote the wrong link the first time around. I aplogize for the confusion. It went from the List of topics on the philosophy of alternative medicine to the present name of List of miscellaneous topics related to alternative medicine because some editors felt that philosophy of alternative medicine was not quite descriptive of the contents of this List. -- John Gohde 13:14, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * I would like to remind you that you are voting on what to do with the newly created stub article: Philosophy of alternative medicine.-- John Gohde 13:18, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep or Merge with Alternative medicine and redirect there. Why don't you just change the links to point to the right article? Snowspinner 20:43, Feb 15, 2005 (UTC)
 * Comment. Why do these few sentences need to be separate from Alternative medicine? What was planned as the expansion of this article? Alternative medicine, being only 27K bytes in length, still has room, and this is only one paragraph.  By the time it is cleaned up and worked into Alternative medicine, it probably mostly evaporates since there isn't much here.  I don't see how Philosophy of alternative medicine is at all a reasonable redirect to List of terms and concepts used in alternative medicine.  There isn't anything obvious on the list of terms and concepts that relates to "philosophy" of alternative medicine, although I must admit I don't have a clue what "philosophy" of alternative medicine might be.   Neither does anyone else, apparently, since the article is still a stub.   Right now, I am having a hard time seeing why this article should not just be deleted.   --BM 22:39, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * This wasn't an article previously, it was a list that was eventually merged into another list. I say merge and redirect.  -Sean Curtin 02:40, Feb 16, 2005 (UTC)
 * It hasn't been merged into another list, actually. It's just been moved around a couple of dozen times. I think, right now, it's at List of miscellaneous topics related to alternative medicine. So you should specify, what exactly did you want to redirect to? That list, John's list, Alternative medicine or what? Snowspinner 03:16, Feb 16, 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge anything useable to Alternative medicine, no redirect. Megan1967 06:36, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge and Delete, we could end up with a zillion "philosphy of..." redirects. Later ther ecould be cause for a seperate article as the main one grows.  Rich Farmbrough 16:20, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge with Alternative medicine and Delete. And fix all of the articles that link to it. Paul August ☎ 16:59, Feb 16, 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge and delete. --Zigger 18:55, 2005 Feb 16 (UTC)
 * Merge with Ztlernative medicine.Ganymead 23:01, 18 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Category-spamming. Merge and redirect - David Gerard 13:50, 20 Feb 2005 (UTC)


text:
David A. Evans

David A. Evans (January 11, 1941 – April 29, 2022)  was an American chemist who was the Abbott and James Lawrence professor of chemistry at Harvard University. He was a prominent figure in the field of organic chemistry and his research focused on synthetic chemistry and total synthesis, particularly of large biologically active molecules. Among his best-known works is the development of aldol reaction methodology (for example, Evans' acyl oxazolidinone method).

Early life and education
Evans was born on January 11, 1941, in Washington, D.C. He received his A.B. from Oberlin College in 1963, where he worked with Norman Craig. He began his graduate work at the University of Michigan with Robert E. Ireland, but moved with the Ireland group to the California Institute of Technology and received his Ph.D. from Caltech in 1967.

Academic career
Evans began his independent research career at the University of California, Los Angeles, where he joined the faculty in 1967 and became a full professor in 1973. He then moved to the California Institute of Technology and remained there until 1983, when he moved again to Harvard University. He was appointed the Abbott and James Lawrence Professor of Chemistry in 1990, served as chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology from 1995 to 1998, and retired from the faculty, assuming professor emeritus status, in 2008.

Research
Evans made many scholarly contributions to the field of organic chemistry. Although he is best known for his work on the aldol reaction, he also developed methodology for anionic oxy-Cope rearrangements, metal catalyzed hydroborations, and catalytic, enantioselective reactions based on bis-oxazoline (box) ligands. The Evans–Saksena reduction and Evans–Tishchenko reaction take their names from him. He is also well known for preparing a set of unpublished though widely disseminated lecture notes for Chemistry 206, a graduate-level organic chemistry course at Harvard.

Developing ChemDraw
The widely used chemical structure drawing software package ChemDraw was initially conceived by Evans and was developed by a graduate student, Stewart Rubenstein, with input from Evans, his wife Sally, and the Evans research group for the preparation of the group's manuscripts. ChemDraw was premiered in July 1985 at the Gordon Research Conference on Reactions & Processes in New Hampshire where Rubenstein and the Evanses demonstrated the new software during a break in the conference.

Awards and honors

 * Elected to the National Academy of Sciences, 1984
 * Elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1988
 * Elected a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1992
 * Tetrahedron Prize for Creativity in Organic Chemistry & BioMedicinal Chemistry, 1998
 * Arthur C. Cope Award, American Chemical Society, 2000
 * The Ryoji Noyori Prize, Society of Synthetic Organic Chemistry, 2006
 * Herbert C. Brown Award for Creative Research in Synthetic Methods, 2007
 * Roger Adams Award in Organic Chemistry, American Chemical Society, 2013

title: David A. Evans


text:
Autoregressive integrated moving average

In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of expected value (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.e., the trend). When the seasonality shows in a time series, the seasonal-differencing could be applied to eliminate the seasonal component. Since the ARMA model, according to the Wold's decomposition theorem, is theoretically sufficient to describe a regular (a.k.a. purely nondeterministic ) wide-sense stationary time series, we are motivated to make stationary a non-stationary time series, e.g., by using differencing, before we can use the ARMA model. Note that if the time series contains a predictable sub-process (a.k.a. pure sine or complex-valued exponential process ), the predictable component is treated as a non-zero-mean but periodic (i.e., seasonal) component in the ARIMA framework so that it is eliminated by the seasonal differencing.

The autoregressive part of ARIMA indicates that the evolving variable of interest is regressed on its own lagged (i.e., prior) values. The moving average part indicates that the regression error is actually a linear combination of error terms whose values occurred contemporaneously and at various times in the past. The (for "integrated") indicates that the data values have been replaced with the difference between their values and the previous values (and this differencing process may have been performed more than once). The purpose of each of these features is to make the model fit the data as well as possible.

Non-seasonal ARIMA models are generally denoted ARIMA(p,d,q) where parameters p, d, and q are non-negative integers, p is the order (number of time lags) of the autoregressive model, d is the degree of differencing (the number of times the data have had past values subtracted), and q is the order of the moving-average model. Seasonal ARIMA models are usually denoted ARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)m, where m refers to the number of periods in each season, and the uppercase P,D,Q refer to the autoregressive, differencing, and moving average terms for the seasonal part of the ARIMA model.

When two out of the three terms are zeros, the model may be referred to based on the non-zero parameter, dropping "", "" or "" from the acronym describing the model. For example, $\text{ARIMA} (1,0,0)$ is $AR(1)$, $\text{ARIMA}(0,1,0)$ is $I(1)$, and $\text{ARIMA}(0,0,1)$ is $MA(1)$.

ARIMA models can be estimated following the Box–Jenkins approach.

Definition
Given time series data Xt where t is an integer index and the Xt are real numbers, an $$\text{ARMA}(p',q)$$ model is given by

 * $$X_t-\alpha_1X_{t-1}- \dots -\alpha_{p'}X_{t-p'} = \varepsilon_t + \theta_1 \varepsilon_{t-1} + \cdots +\theta_q \varepsilon_{t-q},$$

or equivalently by

\left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^{p'} \alpha_i L^i \right) X_t = \left( 1 + \sum_{i=1}^q \theta_i L^i \right) \varepsilon_t \, $$

where $$L$$ is the lag operator, the $$\alpha_i$$ are the parameters of the autoregressive part of the model, the $$\theta_i$$ are the parameters of the moving average part and the $$\varepsilon_t$$ are error terms. The error terms $$\varepsilon_t$$ are generally assumed to be independent, identically distributed variables sampled from a normal distribution with zero mean.

Assume now that the polynomial $$\textstyle \left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^{p'} \alpha_i L^i \right)$$ has a unit root (a factor $$(1-L)$$) of multiplicity d. Then it can be rewritten as:

\left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^{p'} \alpha_i L^i \right) = \left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^{p'-d} \varphi_i L^i \right) \left( 1 - L \right)^d. $$

An ARIMA(p,d,q) process expresses this polynomial factorisation property with p=p'−d, and is given by:

\left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^p \varphi_i L^i \right) (1-L)^d X_t = \left( 1 + \sum_{i=1}^q \theta_i L^i \right) \varepsilon_t \, $$

and thus can be thought as a particular case of an ARMA(p+d,q) process having the autoregressive polynomial with d unit roots. (For this reason, no process that is accurately described by an ARIMA model with d > 0 is wide-sense stationary.)

The above can be generalized as follows.

\left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^p \varphi_i L^i\right) (1-L)^d X_t = \delta + \left( 1 + \sum_{i=1}^q \theta_i L^i \right) \varepsilon_t. \, $$

This defines an ARIMA(p,d,q) process with drift $$ \frac{\delta}{1 - \sum \varphi_i} $$.

Other special forms
The explicit identification of the factorization of the autoregression polynomial into factors as above can be extended to other cases, firstly to apply to the moving average polynomial and secondly to include other special factors. For example, having a factor $$( 1 - L^s)$$ in a model is one way of including a non-stationary seasonality of period s into the model; this factor has the effect of re-expressing the data as changes from s periods ago. Another example is the factor $$\left( 1 -\sqrt{3} L + L^2 \right)$$, which includes a (non-stationary) seasonality of period 2. The effect of the first type of factor is to allow each season's value to drift separately over time, whereas with the second type values for adjacent seasons move together.

Identification and specification of appropriate factors in an ARIMA model can be an important step in modeling as it can allow a reduction in the overall number of parameters to be estimated while allowing the imposition on the model of types of behavior that logic and experience suggest should be there.

Differencing
A stationary time series's properties do not depend on the time at which the series is observed. Specifically, for a wide-sense stationary time series, the mean and the variance/autocovariance keep constant over time. Differencing in statistics is a transformation applied to a non-stationary time-series in order to make it stationary in the mean sense (viz., to remove the non-constant trend), but having nothing to do with the non-stationarity of the variance or autocovariance. Likewise, the seasonal differencing is applied to a seasonal time-series to remove the seasonal component. From the perspective of signal processing, especially the Fourier spectral analysis theory, the trend is the low-frequency part in the spectrum of a non-stationary time series, while the season is the periodic-frequency part in the spectrum of it. Therefore, the differencing works as a high-pass (i.e., low-stop) filter and the seasonal-differencing as a comb filter to suppress the low-frequency trend and the periodic-frequency season in the spectrum domain (rather than directly in the time domain), respectively.

To difference the data, the difference between consecutive observations is computed. Mathematically, this is shown as

y_t'= y_t - y_{t-1} \, $$

Differencing removes the changes in the level of a time series, eliminating trend and seasonality and consequently stabilizing the mean of the time series.

Sometimes it may be necessary to difference the data a second time to obtain a stationary time series, which is referred to as second-order differencing:

\begin{align} y_t^* & = y_t' - y_{t-1}' \\ & =(y_t - y_{t-1})-(y_{t-1} - y_{t-2}) \\ & =y_ t - 2y_{t-1} + y_{t-2} \end{align} $$

Another method of differencing data is seasonal differencing, which involves computing the difference between an observation and the corresponding observation in the previous season e.g a year. This is shown as:

y_t'= y_t - y_{t-m} \quad \text{where } m=\text{duration of season}. $$

The differenced data are then used for the estimation of an ARMA model.

Examples
Some well-known special cases arise naturally or are mathematically equivalent to other popular forecasting models. For example:
 * An ARIMA(0, 1, 0) model (or $I(1)$ model) is given by $$X_t = X_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t$$ — which is simply a random walk.
 * An ARIMA(0, 1, 0) with a constant, given by $$X_t = c + X_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t$$ — which is a random walk with drift.
 * An ARIMA(0, 0, 0) model is a white noise model.
 * An ARIMA(0, 1, 2) model is a Damped Holt's model.
 * An ARIMA(0, 1, 1) model without constant is a basic exponential smoothing model.
 * An ARIMA(0, 2, 2) model is given by $$X_t = 2X_{t-1} - X_{t-2} +(\alpha + \beta - 2) \varepsilon_{t-1} + (1-\alpha)\varepsilon_{t-2} + \varepsilon_{t}$$ — which is equivalent to Holt's linear method with additive errors, or double exponential smoothing.

Choosing the order
The order p and q can be determined using the sample autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and/or extended autocorrelation function (EACF) method.

Other alternative methods include AIC, BIC, etc. To determine the order of a non-seasonal ARIMA model, a useful criterion is the Akaike information criterion (AIC). It is written as

 * $$ \text{AIC} = -2\log(L)+2(p+q+k), $$

where L is the likelihood of the data, p is the order of the autoregressive part and q is the order of the moving average part. The k represents the intercept of the ARIMA model. For AIC, if k = 1 then there is an intercept in the ARIMA model (c ≠ 0) and if k = 0 then there is no intercept in the ARIMA model (c = 0).

The corrected AIC for ARIMA models can be written as

 * $$\text{AICc}= \text{AIC}+ \frac{2(p+q+k)(p+q+k+1)}{T-p-q-k-1}.$$

The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) can be written as

 * $$\text{BIC}= \text{AIC}+((\log T)-2)(p+q+k).$$

The objective is to minimize the AIC, AICc or BIC values for a good model. The lower the value of one of these criteria for a range of models being investigated, the better the model will suit the data. The AIC and the BIC are used for two completely different purposes. While the AIC tries to approximate models towards the reality of the situation, the BIC attempts to find the perfect fit. The BIC approach is often criticized as there never is a perfect fit to real-life complex data; however, it is still a useful method for selection as it penalizes models more heavily for having more parameters than the AIC would.

AICc can only be used to compare ARIMA models with the same orders of differencing. For ARIMAs with different orders of differencing, RMSE can be used for model comparison.

Forecasts using ARIMA models
The ARIMA model can be viewed as a "cascade" of two models. The first is non-stationary:

Y_t = (1-L)^d X_t $$

while the second is wide-sense stationary:

\left( 1 - \sum_{i=1}^p \varphi_i L^i \right) Y_t = \left( 1 + \sum_{i=1}^q \theta_i L^i \right) \varepsilon_t \,. $$

Now forecasts can be made for the process $$Y_t$$, using a generalization of the method of autoregressive forecasting.

Forecast intervals
The forecast intervals (confidence intervals for forecasts) for ARIMA models are based on assumptions that the residuals are uncorrelated and normally distributed. If either of these assumptions does not hold, then the forecast intervals may be incorrect. For this reason, researchers plot the ACF and histogram of the residuals to check the assumptions before producing forecast intervals.

95% forecast interval: $$\hat{y}_{T+h\,\mid\, T}\pm1.96\sqrt{v_{T+h\,\mid\, T}}$$, where $$v_{T+h\mid T}$$ is the variance of $$y_{T+h} \mid y_1,\dots,y_T$$.

For $$h=1$$, $$v_{T+h\,\mid\, T}=\hat{\sigma}^2$$ for all ARIMA models regardless of parameters and orders.

For ARIMA(0,0,q), $$y_t=e_t+\sum_{i=1}^q\theta_ie_{t-i}.$$

 * $$v_{T+h\,\mid\, T} = \hat{\sigma}^2 \left[1+\sum_{i=1}^{h-1}\theta_ie_{t-i}\right], \text{ for } h=2,3,\ldots $$

In general, forecast intervals from ARIMA models will increase as the forecast horizon increases.

Variations and extensions
A number of variations on the ARIMA model are commonly employed. If multiple time series are used then the $$X_t$$ can be thought of as vectors and a VARIMA model may be appropriate. Sometimes a seasonal effect is suspected in the model; in that case, it is generally considered better to use a SARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) model than to increase the order of the AR or MA parts of the model. If the time-series is suspected to exhibit long-range dependence, then the d parameter may be allowed to have non-integer values in an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model, which is also called a Fractional ARIMA (FARIMA or ARFIMA) model.

Software implementations
Various packages that apply methodology like Box–Jenkins parameter optimization are available to find the right parameters for the ARIMA model.

 * EViews: has extensive ARIMA and SARIMA capabilities.
 * Julia: contains an ARIMA implementation in the TimeModels package
 * Mathematica: includes ARIMAProcess function.
 * MATLAB: the Econometrics Toolbox includes ARIMA models and regression with ARIMA errors
 * NCSS: includes several procedures for  fitting and forecasting.
 * Python: the "statsmodels" package includes models for time series analysis – univariate time series analysis: AR, ARIMA – vector autoregressive models, VAR and structural VAR – descriptive statistics and process models for time series analysis.
 * R: the standard R stats package includes an arima function, which is documented in "ARIMA Modelling of Time Series". Besides the $\text{ARIMA}(p,d,q)$ part, the function also includes seasonal factors, an intercept term, and exogenous variables (xreg, called "external regressors"). The package astsa has scripts such as sarima to estimate seasonal or nonseasonal models and sarima.sim to simulate from these models. The CRAN task view on Time Series is the reference with many more links. The "forecast" package in R can automatically select an ARIMA model for a given time series with the auto.arima function  [that can often give questionable results] and can also simulate seasonal and non-seasonal ARIMA models with its simulate.Arima function.
 * Ruby: the "statsample-timeseries" gem is used for time series analysis, including ARIMA models and Kalman Filtering.
 * JavaScript: the "arima" package includes models for time series analysis and forecasting (ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX, AutoARIMA)
 * C: the "ctsa" package includes ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX, AutoARIMA and multiple methods for time series analysis.
 * SAFE TOOLBOXES: includes ARIMA modelling and regression with ARIMA errors.
 * SAS: includes extensive ARIMA processing in its Econometric and Time Series Analysis system: SAS/ETS.
 * IBM SPSS: includes ARIMA modeling in the Professional and Premium editions of its Statistics package as well as its Modeler package. The default Expert Modeler feature evaluates a range of seasonal and non-seasonal autoregressive (p), integrated (d), and moving average (q) settings and seven exponential smoothing models.  The Expert Modeler can also transform the target time-series data into its square root or natural log.  The user also has the option to restrict the Expert Modeler to ARIMA models, or to manually enter ARIMA nonseasonal and seasonal p, d, and q settings without Expert Modeler.  Automatic outlier detection is available for seven types of outliers, and the detected outliers will be accommodated in the time-series model if this feature is selected.
 * SAP: the APO-FCS package in SAP ERP from SAP allows creation and fitting of ARIMA models using the Box–Jenkins methodology.
 * SQL Server Analysis Services: from Microsoft includes ARIMA as a Data Mining algorithm.
 * Stata includes ARIMA modelling (using its arima command) as of Stata 9.
 * StatSim: includes ARIMA models in the Forecast web app.
 * Teradata Vantage has the ARIMA function as part of its machine learning engine.
 * TOL (Time Oriented Language) is designed to model ARIMA models (including SARIMA, ARIMAX and DSARIMAX variants).
 * Scala: spark-timeseries library contains ARIMA implementation for Scala, Java and Python. Implementation is designed to run on Apache Spark.
 * PostgreSQL/MadLib: Time Series Analysis/ARIMA.
 * X-12-ARIMA: from the US Bureau of the Census


text:
User talk:Ant-Man

Welcome!

Hello,, and welcome to Wikipedia! Thank you for your contributions. I hope you like the place and decide to stay. Here are a few good links for newcomers: I hope you enjoy editing here and being a Wikipedian! Please sign your name on talk pages using four tildes (~~); this will automatically produce your name and the date. If you need help, check out Where to ask a question, ask me on my talk page, or place  on your talk page and someone will show up shortly to answer your questions. Again, welcome! Carrp | Talk 20:24, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * The five pillars of Wikipedia
 * How to edit a page
 * Help pages
 * Tutorial
 * How to write a great article
 * Manual of Style

title: User talk:Ant-Man


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Marc lazar

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was keep (at Marc Lazar). —Korath (Talk) 17:23, Mar 17, 2005 (UTC)

Marc lazar
Vanity and non-notable. --Woohookitty 20:24, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep, this is a published professor, article is helpful. Wyss 00:51, 9 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, not notable, possible vanity. Megan1967 03:05, 9 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, fails the professor test. (published professor is a redundancy) Radiant! 08:57, Mar 9, 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep. The (poorly written) http://www.cefc.com.hk/francais/enewsletter/lettreoctobre/Seminar.html indicates that he is a member of the Editorial Board of the journal Esprit, columnist for the Italian newspaper, La Repubblica, and regular collaborator of Le Monde, Libération, Le Figaro, France 2 (television), France 3 (television), Radio-France, Europe n°1, and the RAI (Italian television). Unless that is simply a lie, that would be enough to establish notability. This in 10 minutes of research, someone might want to follow up. -- Jmabel | Talk 01:48, Mar 11, 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep, clearly notable enough. --Zero 14:19, 12 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep, but move to proper title - David Gerard 00:32, 13 Mar 2005 (UTC)

This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Locally modified software

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was NO CONSENSUS. dbenbenn | talk 22:51, 28 Feb 2005 (UTC)

Locally modified software
Not notable rubbish Brookie 20:26, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete I don't think it's complete rubbish, but it is definitely no more than dicdef - only 41 google hits. Johntex 02:38, 16 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep, but with reservations. Article needs expansion. Megan1967 07:06, 18 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Merge to Internationalization_and_localization. vlad_mv 20:06, 18 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Keep, semms notable enough. JamesBurns 07:06, 27 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete; nothing worthwhile to merge. —Korath (Talk) 02:12, Feb 28, 2005 (UTC)

This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.


text: User:ClarkGabel

title: User:ClarkGabel


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Sigrity

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was DELETE. jni 13:20, 24 Feb 2005 (UTC)

Sigrity and Sigrity'
Advertisement. Wikipedia is not a billboard. — Ливай | ☺ 20:28, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)

This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.
 * Delete Advertising Dabbler 20:33, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete They could've at least made an attempt to make it encyclopedic. – flamurai (t) 20:35, Feb 15, 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete Get rid of this obvious ad as soon as possible! Zzyzx11 22:38, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)

title: Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Sigrity


text:
Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Pokémon Jade

 This page is an archive of the discussion about the proposed deletion of the article below. This page is no longer live. Further comments should be made on the article's talk page rather than here so that this page is preserved as an historic record. The result of the debate was delete (blk-cmp error). – ABCD 20:56, 4 Apr 2005 (UTC)

Pokémon Jade

 * The Pokemon Jade the author is referring to does not actually exist; it was a con on Ebay. unsigned nomination by User:Trip the Light Fantastic on 15 Feb 05
 * AGAINST It's still small but it could be expanded and then talk about the what it really was, a rehashing of a diffrent japanese game. unsigned comment by user:Saint-Paddy
 * Looks like User:Trip the Light Fantastic botched the nomination process and this never made it onto VfD. No vote at this time. -- Cyrius|✎
 * Delete, gamescruft. Megan1967 06:21, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete. Pokécruft. I'd say marginal merge and redirect to ebay fraud, but that itself is a redirect to EBay. android↔talk 06:40, Mar 23, 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete if it really doesn't exist. BTW, why aren't there Pokémon White and Pokémon Black?   — J I P | Talk 07:59, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Because of [this] :) Oh and btw, delete as non-existent. Radiant_* 09:16, Mar 23, 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete. If this were fancruft I would be voting keep, but this is not one which even existed, so I cannot. Sjakkalle 09:32, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete. 199 11:39, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Question. If a page listing of famous eBay frauds are created, can this be added to it? Zscout370 18:04, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Then we'd get into the question of whether it is famous or not. -- Cyrius|✎ 18:59, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Your right, since it will be an eventual "add mine" to the list. I vote to Delete this page. Zscout370 19:13, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete, when will these people give up trying to stuff Wikipedia with pokecruft? Vlad M V  ٭ talk 21:28, 24 Mar 2005 (UTC)
 * Delete now, pokecruft. ComCat 05:28, 25 Mar 2005 (UTC)

This page is now preserved as an archive of the debate and, like some other VfD subpages, is no longer 'live'. Subsequent comments on the issue, the deletion, or the decision-making process should be placed on the relevant 'live' pages. Please do not edit this page.


text:
Buzzy Drootin

Benjamin "Buzzy" Drootin (April 22, 1920 – May 21, 2000) was an American jazz drummer.

Career
Drootin was born near Kyiv, Ukraine, and moved to Boston, Massachusetts, United States, with his family when he was five. His father played the clarinet, and two of his brothers and his nephew were musicians. He began playing drums professionally as a teenager. At age twenty, he toured with the Jess Stacy All-Stars, a band that includeded Lee Wiley.

In 1940, he also toured with Ina Ray Hutton. He then joined the band of Wingy Manone. From 1947 until 1951, he worked as the house drummer at Eddie Condon's night club in New York City. He was a bandleader at El Morocco club in New York City, and a member of the house band with his brother Al at George Wein's Storyville club in Boston. During these years he worked with Doc Cheatham, Vic Dickenson, Bobby Hackett, Ruby Braff, Claude Hopkins, Jimmy McPartland, Pee Wee Russell, and Arvell Shaw.

Drootin recorded with Tommy Dorsey, Bobby Hackett, Jack Teagarden, Eddie Condon, Ruby Braff, Anita O'Day, George Wein, the Newport All-Stars, Lee Konitz, Sidney Bechet, PeeWee Russell and The Dukes of Dixieland. In 1968–69, he toured and recorded with Wild Bill Davison's Jazz Giants and then formed Buzzy's Jazz Family, borrowing some of Davison's sidemen (Herb Hall, Benny Morton) and adding Herman Autrey on trumpet and his nephew, Sonny Drootin, on piano.

In 1973, after touring Europe and America, he returned to his hometown of Boston, where he and his brother Al and nephew Sonny formed the Drootin Brothers Band. They played at the Newport Jazz Festival. Drootin played at the first Newport festival and at many festivals after that. He also played at the Los Angeles Classic Jazz Festival in the 1980s.

Death
Buzzy Drootin died from cancer at the age of 80, at the Actors Fund Retirement and Nursing Home in Englewood, New Jersey.

Discography
With Ruby Braff
 * Braff!! (Epic, 1956)
 * Ruby Braff (Jasmine, 1956)
 * Hi-Fi Salute to Bunny (RCA Victor, 1957)
 * The Ruby Braff Octet with Pee Wee Russell & Bobby Henderson at Newport (Verve, 1958)
 * Blowing Around the World (United Artists, 1959)
 * Ruby Braff Goes Girl Crazy (Warner Bros., 1959)
 * The Ruby Braff-Marshall Brown Sextet (United Artists, 1960)

With Eddie Condon
 * Midnight in Moscow (Epic, 1956)
 * Ringside at Condon's Featuring Wild Bill Davison (Savoy, 1956)
 * Windy City Seven and Jam Sessions at Commodore (Commodore, 1979)

With others
 * Sidney Bechet, Sidney Bechet at Storyville (Storyville, 1974)
 * Serge Chaloff, The Fable of Mabel (1201 Music, 1999)
 * Wild Bill Davison, Buzzy Drootin, Herb Hall, The Jazz Giants (Biograph, 1970)
 * Wild Bill Davison, Wild Bill Davison with Eddie Condon's All Stars (Storyville, 1977)
 * Vic Dickenson, Vic's Boston Story (Storyville, 1957)
 * Dukes of Dixieland & Clara Ward, We Gotta Shout! (CBS, 1963)
 * Bobby Hackett, Bobby Hackett at the Embers (Capitol, 1958)
 * Bobby Hackett & Jack Teagarden, Jazz Ultimate (Capitol, 1958)
 * Herb Hall, Old Tyme Modern (Biograph, 1969)
 * Max Kaminsky & Pee Wee Russell, Max and Pee Wee at the Copley Terrace (Jazzology, 1996)
 * Tony Parenti, The Final Bar (Jazzology, 1999)
 * Pee Wee Russell, We're in the Money (Storyville, 1956)
 * Ralph Sutton, Ragtime U.S.A. (Roulette, 1962)
 * George Wein's Dixie-Victors, The Magic Horn (RCA Victor, 1956)
 * George Wein's Newport Jazz Festival All Stars, George Wein's Newport Jazz Festival All Stars (Smash, 1963)

title: Buzzy Drootin


text:
User talk:ClarkGabel

doesnt WORK!

title: User talk:ClarkGabel