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Jul 22

The Character Error Vector: Decomposable errors for page-level OCR evaluation

The Character Error Rate (CER) is a key metric for evaluating the quality of Optical Character Recognition (OCR). However, this metric assumes that text has been perfectly parsed, which is often not the case. Under page-parsing errors, CER becomes undefined, limiting its use as a metric and making evaluating page-level OCR challenging, particularly when using data that do not share a labelling schema. We introduce the Character Error Vector (CEV), a bag-of-characters evaluator for OCR. The CEV can be decomposed into parsing and OCR, and interaction error components. This decomposability allows practitioners to focus on the part of the Document Understanding pipeline that will have the greatest impact on overall text extraction quality. The CEV can be implemented using a variety of methods, of which we demonstrate SpACER (Spatially Aware Character Error Rate) and a Character distribution method using the Jensen-Shannon Distance. We validate the CEV's performance against other metrics: first, the relationship with CER; then, parse quality; and finally, as a direct measure of page-level OCR quality. The validation process shows that the CEV is a valuable bridge between parsing metrics and local metrics like CER. We analyse a dataset of archival newspapers made of degraded images with complex layouts and find that state-of-the-art end-to-end models are outperformed by more traditional pipeline approaches. Whilst the CEV requires character-level positioning for optimal triage, thresholding on easily available values can predict the main error source with an F1 of 0.91. We provide the CEV as part of a Python library to support Document understanding research.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 6

SEAL: A Framework for Systematic Evaluation of Real-World Super-Resolution

Real-world Super-Resolution (Real-SR) methods focus on dealing with diverse real-world images and have attracted increasing attention in recent years. The key idea is to use a complex and high-order degradation model to mimic real-world degradations. Although they have achieved impressive results in various scenarios, they are faced with the obstacle of evaluation. Currently, these methods are only assessed by their average performance on a small set of degradation cases randomly selected from a large space, which fails to provide a comprehensive understanding of their overall performance and often yields inconsistent and potentially misleading results. To overcome the limitation in evaluation, we propose SEAL, a framework for systematic evaluation of real-SR. In particular, we cluster the extensive degradation space to create a set of representative degradation cases, which serves as a comprehensive test set. Next, we propose a coarse-to-fine evaluation protocol to measure the distributed and relative performance of real-SR methods on the test set. The protocol incorporates two new metrics: acceptance rate (AR) and relative performance ratio (RPR), derived from acceptance and excellence lines. Under SEAL, we benchmark existing real-SR methods, obtain new observations and insights into their performance, and develop a new strong baseline. We consider SEAL as the first step towards creating a comprehensive real-SR evaluation platform, which can promote the development of real-SR. The source code is available at https://github.com/XPixelGroup/SEAL

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 6, 2023

Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13, 2025

CORAA: a large corpus of spontaneous and prepared speech manually validated for speech recognition in Brazilian Portuguese

Automatic Speech recognition (ASR) is a complex and challenging task. In recent years, there have been significant advances in the area. In particular, for the Brazilian Portuguese (BP) language, there were about 376 hours public available for ASR task until the second half of 2020. With the release of new datasets in early 2021, this number increased to 574 hours. The existing resources, however, are composed of audios containing only read and prepared speech. There is a lack of datasets including spontaneous speech, which are essential in different ASR applications. This paper presents CORAA (Corpus of Annotated Audios) v1. with 290.77 hours, a publicly available dataset for ASR in BP containing validated pairs (audio-transcription). CORAA also contains European Portuguese audios (4.69 hours). We also present a public ASR model based on Wav2Vec 2.0 XLSR-53 and fine-tuned over CORAA. Our model achieved a Word Error Rate of 24.18% on CORAA test set and 20.08% on Common Voice test set. When measuring the Character Error Rate, we obtained 11.02% and 6.34% for CORAA and Common Voice, respectively. CORAA corpora were assembled to both improve ASR models in BP with phenomena from spontaneous speech and motivate young researchers to start their studies on ASR for Portuguese. All the corpora are publicly available at https://github.com/nilc-nlp/CORAA under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 14, 2021

BERSting at the Screams: A Benchmark for Distanced, Emotional and Shouted Speech Recognition

Some speech recognition tasks, such as automatic speech recognition (ASR), are approaching or have reached human performance in many reported metrics. Yet, they continue to struggle in complex, real-world, situations, such as with distanced speech. Previous challenges have released datasets to address the issue of distanced ASR, however, the focus remains primarily on distance, specifically relying on multi-microphone array systems. Here we present the B(asic) E(motion) R(andom phrase) S(hou)t(s) (BERSt) dataset. The dataset contains almost 4 hours of English speech from 98 actors with varying regional and non-native accents. The data was collected on smartphones in the actors homes and therefore includes at least 98 different acoustic environments. The data also includes 7 different emotion prompts and both shouted and spoken utterances. The smartphones were places in 19 different positions, including obstructions and being in a different room than the actor. This data is publicly available for use and can be used to evaluate a variety of speech recognition tasks, including: ASR, shout detection, and speech emotion recognition (SER). We provide initial benchmarks for ASR and SER tasks, and find that ASR degrades both with an increase in distance and shout level and shows varied performance depending on the intended emotion. Our results show that the BERSt dataset is challenging for both ASR and SER tasks and continued work is needed to improve the robustness of such systems for more accurate real-world use.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 30, 2025

PEneo: Unifying Line Extraction, Line Grouping, and Entity Linking for End-to-end Document Pair Extraction

Document pair extraction aims to identify key and value entities as well as their relationships from visually-rich documents. Most existing methods divide it into two separate tasks: semantic entity recognition (SER) and relation extraction (RE). However, simply concatenating SER and RE serially can lead to severe error propagation, and it fails to handle cases like multi-line entities in real scenarios. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel framework, PEneo (Pair Extraction new decoder option), which performs document pair extraction in a unified pipeline, incorporating three concurrent sub-tasks: line extraction, line grouping, and entity linking. This approach alleviates the error accumulation problem and can handle the case of multi-line entities. Furthermore, to better evaluate the model's performance and to facilitate future research on pair extraction, we introduce RFUND, a re-annotated version of the commonly used FUNSD and XFUND datasets, to make them more accurate and cover realistic situations. Experiments on various benchmarks demonstrate PEneo's superiority over previous pipelines, boosting the performance by a large margin (e.g., 19.89%-22.91% F1 score on RFUND-EN) when combined with various backbones like LiLT and LayoutLMv3, showing its effectiveness and generality. Codes and the new annotations will be open to the public.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 7, 2024

SwitchLingua: The First Large-Scale Multilingual and Multi-Ethnic Code-Switching Dataset

Code-switching (CS) is the alternating use of two or more languages within a conversation or utterance, often influenced by social context and speaker identity. This linguistic phenomenon poses challenges for Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems, which are typically designed for a single language and struggle to handle multilingual inputs. The growing global demand for multilingual applications, including Code-Switching ASR (CSASR), Text-to-Speech (CSTTS), and Cross-Lingual Information Retrieval (CLIR), highlights the inadequacy of existing monolingual datasets. Although some code-switching datasets exist, most are limited to bilingual mixing within homogeneous ethnic groups, leaving a critical need for a large-scale, diverse benchmark akin to ImageNet in computer vision. To bridge this gap, we introduce LinguaMaster, a multi-agent collaboration framework specifically designed for efficient and scalable multilingual data synthesis. Leveraging this framework, we curate SwitchLingua, the first large-scale multilingual and multi-ethnic code-switching dataset, including: (1) 420K CS textual samples across 12 languages, and (2) over 80 hours of audio recordings from 174 speakers representing 18 countries/regions and 63 racial/ethnic backgrounds, based on the textual data. This dataset captures rich linguistic and cultural diversity, offering a foundational resource for advancing multilingual and multicultural research. Furthermore, to address the issue that existing ASR evaluation metrics lack sensitivity to code-switching scenarios, we propose the Semantic-Aware Error Rate (SAER), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates semantic information, providing a more accurate and context-aware assessment of system performance.

  • 8 authors
·
May 30, 2025

Meta-Tool: Efficient Few-Shot Tool Adaptation for Small Language Models

Can small language models achieve strong tool-use performance without complex adaptation mechanisms? This paper investigates this question through Meta-Tool, a controlled empirical study comparing hypernetwork-based LoRA adaptation against carefully designed few-shot prompting. Using a Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct backbone, we evaluate four adaptation mechanisms--few-shot prompting, documentation encoding, hypernetwork-generated LoRA weights, and value-guided beam search--across four diverse benchmarks: Gorilla APIBench, Spider 2.0, WebArena, and InterCode. Our central finding is a well-supported negative result: despite generating non-trivial weight matrices, the 227.8M-parameter hypernetwork provides no measurable improvement over few-shot prompting alone. Comprehensive ablation studies reveal that few-shot examples contribute +21.5% to performance and documentation contributes +5.0%, while the hypernetwork adds 0%. A 3B model with well-designed prompts achieves 79.7% of GPT-5's average performance at 10 times lower latency. Error analysis across 722 failure cases spanning all shot counts (0--5) shows that at the 5-shot configuration (106 failures), failure modes are task-dependent: schema-heavy tasks (Spider 2.0, WebArena) show near-zero format errors with remaining failures semantic, while format errors dominate on Gorilla (100%) and InterCode (70%). These findings redirect practitioners toward prompt engineering and example curation rather than complex adaptation architectures.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 21

Breeze Taigi: Benchmarks and Models for Taiwanese Hokkien Speech Recognition and Synthesis

Taiwanese Hokkien (Taigi) presents unique opportunities for advancing speech technology methodologies that can generalize to diverse linguistic contexts. We introduce Breeze Taigi, a comprehensive framework centered on standardized benchmarks for evaluating Taigi speech recognition and synthesis systems. Our primary contribution is a reproducible evaluation methodology that leverages parallel Taiwanese Mandarin resources. We provide 30 carefully curated Mandarin-Taigi audio pairs from Taiwan's Executive Yuan public service announcements with normalized ground truth transcriptions. We establish Character Error Rate (CER) as the standard metric and implement normalization procedures to enable fair cross-system comparisons. To demonstrate the benchmark's utility and provide reference implementations, we develop speech recognition and synthesis models through a methodology that leverages existing Taiwanese Mandarin resources and large-scale synthetic data generation. In particular, we fine-tune a Whisper model on approximately 10,000 hours of Taigi synthetic speech data. Our ASR model achieves 30.13% average CER on the benchmark, outperforming existing commercial and research systems. By providing standardized evaluation protocols, diverse training datasets, and open baseline models, we offer a replicable framework with methodologies applicable to various linguistic contexts.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 25

Evaluating Deep Research Agents on Expert Consulting Work: A Benchmark with Verifiers, Rubrics, and Cognitive Traps

Frontier deep research agents (DRAs) plan a research task, synthesize across documents, and return a structured deliverable on demand. They are being deployed in enterprise workflows faster than they are being evaluated. Existing benchmarks measure factual recall, single-hop QA, or generic agentic skill, missing the multi-document, decision-grade work DRAs are deployed to produce. We introduce a benchmark targeting the structured analytical deliverables that fill a management consultant's typical week. We grade three frontier agents, namely Claude Opus 4.6 with web search, OpenAI o3-deep-research, and Google Gemini 3.1 Pro deep-research, on 42 SME-authored prompts. Each of the 126 responses is scored on two layers: deterministic ground-truth verifiers (mean 13.8 per task) and a five-criterion 0-3 SME rubric, composed into a Verifier-Rubric Score (VRS) on 0-100. Most prompts embed cognitive traps that penalize surface-pattern matching. Acceptance under our joint threshold (rubric mean >= 2.5 and verifier rate >= 80%) is uniformly low: Gemini 21.4%, o3 9.5%, Claude 9.5%. Mean VRS scores agree with published rubric-based benchmarks (our top 62.6 vs. APEX-v1 64.2, ProfBench 65.9, ResearchRubrics < 68%), validating the rubric construct. ACCEPT rates sit below APEX-Agents' MC-segment Pass@1 band (12.3-22.7%) on dedicated DR agents; our floor is three points lower despite the harness advantage, opened by stricter conjunctive grading and trap design. Each agent fails distinctively. Claude produces the deliverable most reliably (4.5x the others' rate on file-required tasks) but carries the highest fabrication signature. o3 has the cleanest reasoning average yet drops required sections and propagates arithmetic errors. Gemini is bimodal, with the highest acceptance rate alongside the most zero-scored rubric cells.

  • 3 authors
·
May 16

LLiMba: Sardinian on a Single GPU -- Adapting a 3B Language Model to a Vanishing Romance Language

Sardinian, a Romance language with roughly one million speakers, has minimal presence in modern NLP. Commercial services do not support it, and current language models do not produce it reliably. We present LLiMba, a 3B parameter Sardinian-ready model adapted from Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct through continued pretraining (CPT) and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on a single 24 GB consumer GPU. The corpus contains 11.5 million tokens of Sardinian spanning LSC, Logudorese, and Campidanese, augmented with 2.4 million tokens of related Romance text as replay against register blurring. After CPT the model reaches a perplexity of 6.76 on held out Sardinian and outperforms the base across all six FLORES-200 directions. We compare five SFT configurations under matched conditions: full fine-tuning, LoRA r64, rsLoRA r128, rsLoRA r256, and DoRA r256. rsLoRA r256 wins on every direction into Sardinian, reaching 28.5 BLEU from English against 17.3 after CPT and 21.0 with full fine-tuning. The rank ablation places r128 between LoRA r64 and rsLoRA r256 on BLEU but reveals failure modes invisible to the metric, including leakage across scripts no other variant produces. LoRA r64 retains less factual content from SFT than configurations at higher rank and produces more confident fabrications, though all methods fabricate on content absent from training. DoRA r256 yields the smallest gap between training and evaluation but the worst factual accuracy. The findings indicate that adapter capacity matters more than the choice among LoRA variants for adapting a Romance pretrained base to a low resource Romance target, that stronger regularization is not uniformly beneficial, and that translation metrics smoothly order configurations whose qualitative behavior differs categorically. Perplexity comparisons across scripts must account for byte fallback tokenization, which deflates the metric for scripts other than Latin.

  • 1 authors
·
May 8 1

When Correct Isn't Usable: Improving Structured Output Reliability in Small Language Models

Deployed language models must produce outputs that are both correct and format-compliant. We study this structured-output reliability gap using two mathematical benchmarks -- GSM8K and MATH -- as a controlled testbed: ground truth is unambiguous and the output contract is strict (JSON with required fields). We evaluate three 7-9B models under five prompting strategies and report output accuracy -- the joint event of mathematical correctness and valid JSON structure -- as the primary metric. A systematic format failure emerges: NAIVE prompting (no system prompt) achieves up to 85% task accuracy on GSM8K but 0% output accuracy across all models and datasets. REFERENCE prompting (a minimal hand-written JSON format prompt) fares little better, yielding 0% output accuracy for two of four models tested. Constrained decoding enforces syntactic validity but incurs 3.6x-8.2x latency overhead and in several settings degrades task performance substantially. To overcome this limitation, we developed AloLab, an iterative system-prompt optimizer (meta-agent: Claude Sonnet 4.5) requiring only black-box API access to the target model; it reaches 84-87% output accuracy on GSM8K and 34-40% on MATH across five independent runs per model, with 29/30 paired McNemar comparisons against the best static prompt significant at p < 0.05, at near-NAIVE inference latency and without model fine-tuning. The same format failure extends to GPT-4o (OpenAI, 2024), a proprietary closed-source model: REFERENCE achieves 0% output accuracy due to systematic markdown-fence wrapping, while AloLab reaches 95.2% [94.8, 95.6]. An ablation replacing the Sonnet 4.5 meta-agent with Claude 3 Haiku reduces mean output accuracy to 61.0% and increases run-to-run standard deviation from <1 pp to 21.8 pp, confirming that meta-agent capability is a primary driver of optimization quality.

  • 4 authors
·
May 3

Instruct-Tuning Pretrained Causal Language Models for Ancient Greek Papyrology and Epigraphy

This article presents an experiment in fine-tuning a pretrained causal language model (Meta's Llama 3.1 8B Instruct) for aiding in three fundamental tasks of philological research: chronological and geographic attribution as well as text restoration in ancient Greek inscriptions and documentary papyri. Using a prompt-based instruct approach, the fine-tuned models surpass the state of the art in key metrics. For inscriptions, the models achieve a lower average character error rate (CER) of 22.5% (vs. 26.3%), while closely matching top-1 accuracy (60.9% vs. 61.8%) and top-20 accuracy (77.5% vs. 78.3%) for sequences up to 10 characters. They also provide a practical advantage by ignoring spaces during reconstruction, aligning better with the scriptio continua typically used in ancient written artifacts. In geographic attribution, the model outperforms previous benchmarks with a top-1 accuracy of 75.0% (vs. 70.8%) and a top-3 accuracy of 83.7% (vs. 82.1%). For dating, it achieves an average deviation of 26.2 years (vs. 29.3) and a median deviation of 1 year (vs. 3) from the actual date range. The models also set new baselines for documentary papyri, with a CER of 16.3%, a top-1 accuracy of 71.3%, and top-20 of 85.0% in text reconstruction; a top-1 accuracy of 66.4% and top-3 of 79.9% in geographic attribution; and, in chronological attribution, a deviation of 21.7 years from the actual termini post/ante quem, with a median deviation of 0 years.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 20, 2024

Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold

Quantum error correction provides a path to reach practical quantum computing by combining multiple physical qubits into a logical qubit, where the logical error rate is suppressed exponentially as more qubits are added. However, this exponential suppression only occurs if the physical error rate is below a critical threshold. In this work, we present two surface code memories operating below this threshold: a distance-7 code and a distance-5 code integrated with a real-time decoder. The logical error rate of our larger quantum memory is suppressed by a factor of Λ = 2.14 pm 0.02 when increasing the code distance by two, culminating in a 101-qubit distance-7 code with 0.143% pm 0.003% error per cycle of error correction. This logical memory is also beyond break-even, exceeding its best physical qubit's lifetime by a factor of 2.4 pm 0.3. We maintain below-threshold performance when decoding in real time, achieving an average decoder latency of 63 μs at distance-5 up to a million cycles, with a cycle time of 1.1 μs. To probe the limits of our error-correction performance, we run repetition codes up to distance-29 and find that logical performance is limited by rare correlated error events occurring approximately once every hour, or 3 times 10^9 cycles. Our results present device performance that, if scaled, could realize the operational requirements of large scale fault-tolerant quantum algorithms.

  • 249 authors
·
Aug 23, 2024

Revisiting Modeling and Evaluation Approaches in Speech Emotion Recognition: Considering Subjectivity of Annotators and Ambiguity of Emotions

Over the past two decades, speech emotion recognition (SER) has received growing attention. To train SER systems, researchers collect emotional speech databases annotated by crowdsourced or in-house raters who select emotions from predefined categories. However, disagreements among raters are common. Conventional methods treat these disagreements as noise, aggregating labels into a single consensus target. While this simplifies SER as a single-label task, it ignores the inherent subjectivity of human emotion perception. This dissertation challenges such assumptions and asks: (1) Should minority emotional ratings be discarded? (2) Should SER systems learn from only a few individuals' perceptions? (3) Should SER systems predict only one emotion per sample? Psychological studies show that emotion perception is subjective and ambiguous, with overlapping emotional boundaries. We propose new modeling and evaluation perspectives: (1) Retain all emotional ratings and represent them with soft-label distributions. Models trained on individual annotator ratings and jointly optimized with standard SER systems improve performance on consensus-labeled tests. (2) Redefine SER evaluation by including all emotional data and allowing co-occurring emotions (e.g., sad and angry). We propose an ``all-inclusive rule'' that aggregates all ratings to maximize diversity in label representation. Experiments on four English emotion databases show superior performance over majority and plurality labeling. (3) Construct a penalization matrix to discourage unlikely emotion combinations during training. Integrating it into loss functions further improves performance. Overall, embracing minority ratings, multiple annotators, and multi-emotion predictions yields more robust and human-aligned SER systems.

Quran Recitation Recognition using End-to-End Deep Learning

The Quran is the holy scripture of Islam, and its recitation is an important aspect of the religion. Recognizing the recitation of the Holy Quran automatically is a challenging task due to its unique rules that are not applied in normal speaking speeches. A lot of research has been done in this domain, but previous works have detected recitation errors as a classification task or used traditional automatic speech recognition (ASR). In this paper, we proposed a novel end-to-end deep learning model for recognizing the recitation of the Holy Quran. The proposed model is a CNN-Bidirectional GRU encoder that uses CTC as an objective function, and a character-based decoder which is a beam search decoder. Moreover, all previous works were done on small private datasets consisting of short verses and a few chapters of the Holy Quran. As a result of using private datasets, no comparisons were done. To overcome this issue, we used a public dataset that has recently been published (Ar-DAD) and contains about 37 chapters that were recited by 30 reciters, with different recitation speeds and different types of pronunciation rules. The proposed model performance was evaluated using the most common evaluation metrics in speech recognition, word error rate (WER), and character error rate (CER). The results were 8.34% WER and 2.42% CER. We hope this research will be a baseline for comparisons with future research on this public new dataset (Ar-DAD).

  • 2 authors
·
May 10, 2023

Fast and accurate AI-based pre-decoders for color codes

Color codes are promising alternatives to surface codes for universal fault-tolerant quantum computing due to their simpler lattice-surgery protocols and the transversal implementation of logical Clifford gates. However, their practical deployment has been limited by slower decoding algorithms and worse logical failure rates and thresholds compared to surface codes. Although AI-based logical-flip decoders have recently been proposed to address these challenges, no clear framework currently exists for implementing such decoders within the parallel block-wise decoding schemes in both space and time required for large-scale fault-tolerant computation. AI-based pre-decoders offer a scalable alternative due to their local nature. By performing spacelike corrections on physical qubits and timelike corrections on stabilizer measurements, pre-decoders are naturally compatible with parallel block-wise decoding schemes and lattice-surgery protocols. In this work, we introduce AI-based pre-decoders for triangular color codes. We present a novel neural-network architecture for their implementation and develop methods to simplify the complex training data generated by color-code syndrome-extraction circuits containing feedforward operations. Remarkably, we find that both logical failure rates (LERs) and runtimes improve relative to raw Chromobius decoding as the code distance increases. For example, at code distance d=31 and physical error rate p=0.3%, our pre-decoder + Chromobius pipeline improves the logical failure rate by a factor of 347x while reducing runtime by 7.33x compared to raw Chromobius decoding alone. These results demonstrate that AI-based pre-decoding can substantially narrow the performance gap between color codes and surface codes, bringing color codes closer to practical large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computation.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 10

Beyond Per-Token Pricing: A Concurrency-Aware Methodology for LLM Infrastructure Cost Estimation

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 9