Daily Papers

Intelligent vehicle cockpits present unique challenges for API Agents, requiring coordination across tightly-coupled subsystems that exceed typical task environments' complexity. Traditional Function Calling (FC) approaches operate statelessly, requiring multiple exploratory calls to build environmental awareness before execution, leading to inefficiency and limited error recovery. We introduce VehicleWorld, the first comprehensive environment for the automotive domain, featuring 30 modules, 250 APIs, and 680 properties with fully executable implementations that provide real-time state information during agent execution. This environment enables precise evaluation of vehicle agent behaviors across diverse, challenging scenarios. Through systematic analysis, we discovered that direct state prediction outperforms function calling for environmental control. Building on this insight, we propose State-based Function Call (SFC), a novel approach that maintains explicit system state awareness and implements direct state transitions to achieve target conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that SFC significantly outperforms traditional FC approaches, achieving superior execution accuracy and reduced latency. We have made all implementation code publicly available on Github https://github.com/OpenMOSS/VehicleWorld.

While current vision algorithms excel at many challenging tasks, it is unclear how well they understand the physical dynamics of real-world environments. Here we introduce Physion, a dataset and benchmark for rigorously evaluating the ability to predict how physical scenarios will evolve over time. Our dataset features realistic simulations of a wide range of physical phenomena, including rigid and soft-body collisions, stable multi-object configurations, rolling, sliding, and projectile motion, thus providing a more comprehensive challenge than previous benchmarks. We used Physion to benchmark a suite of models varying in their architecture, learning objective, input-output structure, and training data. In parallel, we obtained precise measurements of human prediction behavior on the same set of scenarios, allowing us to directly evaluate how well any model could approximate human behavior. We found that vision algorithms that learn object-centric representations generally outperform those that do not, yet still fall far short of human performance. On the other hand, graph neural networks with direct access to physical state information both perform substantially better and make predictions that are more similar to those made by humans. These results suggest that extracting physical representations of scenes is the main bottleneck to achieving human-level and human-like physical understanding in vision algorithms. We have publicly released all data and code to facilitate the use of Physion to benchmark additional models in a fully reproducible manner, enabling systematic evaluation of progress towards vision algorithms that understand physical environments as robustly as people do.

Event cameras offer multiple advantages in monocular egocentric 3D human pose estimation from head-mounted devices, such as millisecond temporal resolution, high dynamic range, and negligible motion blur. Existing methods effectively leverage these properties, but suffer from low 3D estimation accuracy, insufficient in many applications (e.g., immersive VR/AR). This is due to the design not being fully tailored towards event streams (e.g., their asynchronous and continuous nature), leading to high sensitivity to self-occlusions and temporal jitter in the estimates. This paper rethinks the setting and introduces E-3DPSM, an event-driven continuous pose state machine for event-based egocentric 3D human pose estimation. E-3DPSM aligns continuous human motion with fine-grained event dynamics; it evolves latent states and predicts continuous changes in 3D joint positions associated with observed events, which are fused with direct 3D human pose predictions, leading to stable and drift-free final 3D pose reconstructions. E-3DPSM runs in real-time at 80 Hz on a single workstation and sets a new state of the art in experiments on two benchmarks, improving accuracy by up to 19% (MPJPE) and temporal stability by up to 2.7x. See our project page for the source code and trained models.

Identifying useful sorbent materials for direct air capture (DAC) from humid air remains a challenge. We present the Open DAC 2025 (ODAC25) dataset, a significant expansion and improvement upon ODAC23 (Sriram et al., ACS Central Science, 10 (2024) 923), comprising nearly 70 million DFT single-point calculations for CO_2, H_2O, N_2, and O_2 adsorption in 15,000 MOFs. ODAC25 introduces chemical and configurational diversity through functionalized MOFs, high-energy GCMC-derived placements, and synthetically generated frameworks. ODAC25 also significantly improves upon the accuracy of DFT calculations and the treatment of flexible MOFs in ODAC23. Along with the dataset, we release new state-of-the-art machine-learned interatomic potentials trained on ODAC25 and evaluate them on adsorption energy and Henry's law coefficient predictions.

World Action Models (WAMs) extend robot policy learning by incorporating future prediction as an additional training objective, encouraging the policy to encode task-relevant temporal structure in its representations. Current WAMs often rely on large-scale generative architectures that incur high training costs and inference latency, making them difficult to deploy as efficient closed-loop policies. We propose Light-WAM, a lightweight World Action Model for efficient robot manipulation. Specifically, it is built with a compact video backbone and performs future-video supervision in a downsampled latent space, reducing the cost of video co-training while retaining its benefits for representation learning. For action prediction, Light-WAM introduces the StateFusionActionExpert, which reads adapted states from multiple backbone layers, fuses them through learned-query pooling, and directly predicts action chunks in a single forward pass. This design provides an efficient interface between video backbone representations and robot actions, avoiding the need for heavy generative action experts. Experiments demonstrate that Light-WAM maintains strong performance on LIBERO and achieves usable multi-task performance on RoboTwin 2.0, while using only 0.44B trainable parameters. It also achieves 72.03ms inference latency with 4.1GiB peak GPU memory and improved training throughput.

Estimating the head pose of a person is a crucial problem that has a large amount of applications such as aiding in gaze estimation, modeling attention, fitting 3D models to video and performing face alignment. Traditionally head pose is computed by estimating some keypoints from the target face and solving the 2D to 3D correspondence problem with a mean human head model. We argue that this is a fragile method because it relies entirely on landmark detection performance, the extraneous head model and an ad-hoc fitting step. We present an elegant and robust way to determine pose by training a multi-loss convolutional neural network on 300W-LP, a large synthetically expanded dataset, to predict intrinsic Euler angles (yaw, pitch and roll) directly from image intensities through joint binned pose classification and regression. We present empirical tests on common in-the-wild pose benchmark datasets which show state-of-the-art results. Additionally we test our method on a dataset usually used for pose estimation using depth and start to close the gap with state-of-the-art depth pose methods. We open-source our training and testing code as well as release our pre-trained models.

Accurate assessment of personality traits is crucial for effective psycho-counseling, yet traditional methods like self-report questionnaires are time-consuming and biased. This study exams whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can predict the Big Five personality traits directly from counseling dialogues and introduces an innovative framework to perform the task. Our framework applies role-play and questionnaire-based prompting to condition LLMs on counseling sessions, simulating client responses to the Big Five Inventory. We evaluated our framework on 853 real-world counseling sessions, finding a significant correlation between LLM-predicted and actual Big Five traits, proving the validity of framework. Moreover, ablation studies highlight the importance of role-play simulations and task simplification via questionnaires in enhancing prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, our fine-tuned Llama3-8B model, utilizing Direct Preference Optimization with Supervised Fine-Tuning, achieves a 130.95\% improvement, surpassing the state-of-the-art Qwen1.5-110B by 36.94\% in personality prediction validity. In conclusion, LLMs can predict personality based on counseling dialogues. Our code and model are publicly available at https://github.com/kuri-leo/BigFive-LLM-Predictor, providing a valuable tool for future research in computational psychometrics.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability. In practice it degrades calibration, and existing remedies address epistemic uncertainty, where a model's confidence accompanies a verifiably correct or incorrect answer. We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the output and the label is one stochastic outcome, taking NFL in-game win probability as a testbed with the betting market as a reference. Rewarding the realized per-play outcome fails, because the single outcome is a noisy target and the policy gradient corrupts the chain of thought. We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes, that removes the label noise, and we keep the gradient off the reasoning, by direct prediction or a gradient mask, so it cannot be corrupted. Trained with this reward alone, without human labels or supervised fine-tuning, a 7B model reaches the calibration of the betting market by direct prediction and is better calibrated than a zero-shot frontier model. That frontier model and a tabular estimator reach the same Brier score as this model, identifying the market's small remaining edge as live in-game information beyond their shared inputs. Masking the gradient, rather than dropping the chain of thought, preserves reasoning from which the forecast follows, which ordinary chain-of-thought training corrupts.

End-to-end autonomous driving systems are increasingly integrating Vision-Language Model (VLM) architectures, incorporating text reasoning or visual reasoning to enhance the robustness and accuracy of driving decisions. However, the reasoning mechanisms employed in most methods are direct adaptations from general domains, lacking in-depth exploration tailored to autonomous driving scenarios, particularly within visual reasoning modules. In this paper, we propose a driving world model that performs parallel prediction of latent semantic features for consecutive future frames in the bird's-eye-view (BEV) space, thereby enabling long-horizon modeling of future world states. We also introduce an efficient and adaptive text reasoning mechanism that utilizes additional social knowledge and reasoning capabilities to further improve driving performance in challenging long-tail scenarios. We present a novel, efficient, and effective approach that achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on the closed-loop Bench2drive benchmark. Codes are available at: https://github.com/hotdogcheesewhite/DeepSight.

This paper introduces a novel approach for identifying the possible large language models (LLMs) involved in text generation. Instead of adding an additional classification layer to a base LM, we reframe the classification task as a next-token prediction task and directly fine-tune the base LM to perform it. We utilize the Text-to-Text Transfer Transformer (T5) model as the backbone for our experiments. We compared our approach to the more direct approach of utilizing hidden states for classification. Evaluation shows the exceptional performance of our method in the text classification task, highlighting its simplicity and efficiency. Furthermore, interpretability studies on the features extracted by our model reveal its ability to differentiate distinctive writing styles among various LLMs even in the absence of an explicit classifier. We also collected a dataset named OpenLLMText, containing approximately 340k text samples from human and LLMs, including GPT3.5, PaLM, LLaMA, and GPT2.

This paper demonstrates how a graph-based semantic parser can be applied to the task of structured sentiment analysis, directly predicting sentiment graphs from text. We advance the state of the art on 4 out of 5 standard benchmark sets. We release the source code, models and predictions.

Learning a generalizable bimanual manipulation policy is extremely challenging for embodied agents due to the large action space and the need for coordinated arm movements. Existing approaches rely on Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to acquire bimanual policies. However, transferring knowledge from single-arm datasets or pre-trained VLA models often fails to generalize effectively, primarily due to the scarcity of bimanual data and the fundamental differences between single-arm and bimanual manipulation. In this paper, we propose a novel bimanual foundation policy by fine-tuning the leading text-to-video models to predict robot trajectories and training a lightweight diffusion policy for action generation. Given the lack of embodied knowledge in text-to-video models, we introduce a two-stage paradigm that fine-tunes independent text-to-flow and flow-to-video models derived from a pre-trained text-to-video model. Specifically, optical flow serves as an intermediate variable, providing a concise representation of subtle movements between images. The text-to-flow model predicts optical flow to concretize the intent of language instructions, and the flow-to-video model leverages this flow for fine-grained video prediction. Our method mitigates the ambiguity of language in single-stage text-to-video prediction and significantly reduces the robot-data requirement by avoiding direct use of low-level actions. In experiments, we collect high-quality manipulation data for real dual-arm robot, and the results of simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

AI agents negotiate and transact in natural language with unfamiliar counterparts: a buyer bot facing an unknown seller, or a procurement assistant negotiating with a supplier. In such interactions, the counterpart's LLM, prompts, control logic, and rule-based fallbacks are hidden, while each decision can have monetary consequences. We ask whether an agent can predict an unfamiliar counterpart's next decision from a few interactions. To avoid real-world logging confounds, we study this problem in controlled bargaining and negotiation games, formulating it as target-adaptive text-tabular prediction: each decision point is a table row combining structured game state, offer history, and dialogue, while K previous games of the same target agent, i.e., the counterpart being modeled, are provided in the prompt as labeled adaptation examples. Our model is built on a tabular foundation model that represents rows using game-state features and LLM-based text representations, and adds LLM-as-Observer as an additional representation: a small frozen LLM reads the decision-time state and dialogue; its answer is discarded, and its hidden state becomes a decision-oriented feature, making the LLM an encoder rather than a direct few-shot predictor. Training on 13 frontier-LLM agents and testing on 91 held-out scaffolded agents, the full model outperforms direct LLM-as-Predictor prompting and game+text features baselines. Within this tabular model, Observer features contribute beyond the other feature schemes: at K=16, they improve response-prediction AUC by about 4 points across both tasks and reduce bargaining offer-prediction error by 14%. These results show that formulating counterpart prediction as a target-adaptive text-tabular task enables effective adaptation, and that hidden LLM representations expose decision-relevant signals that direct prompting does not surface.

Histopathology whole-slide images (WSIs) are routinely acquired in clinical practice and contain rich tissue morphology but lack direct molecular architecture and functional programs defining pathological states, whereas RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) provides genome-wide transcriptional profiles at substantial cost, thereby motivating WSI-based genome-wide transcriptomic prediction. Existing approaches for predicting gene expression from WSIs predominantly rely on deterministic regression with one-to-one mapping, limiting their ability to capture biological heterogeneity and predictive uncertainty. We propose RNA-FM, a flow-matching generative framework for genome-wide bulk RNA-seq prediction from WSIs. RNA-FM formulates transcriptomic prediction as a continuous-time conditional transport problem, learning a velocity field that maps a simple prior to the target gene expression distribution conditioned on morphologies. By integrating pathway-level structure, RNA-FM enables scalable and biologically interpretable genome-wide gene expression imputation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RNA-FM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches while maintaining biological meaningfulness. Code is available at https://github.com/YXSong000/RNA-FM.

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and business value, net conversion rate (NetCVR), defined as the probability that a clicked item is purchased and not refunded, has been proposed.Unlike CVR, NetCVR prediction involves a more complex multi-stage cascaded delayed feedback process. The two cascaded delays from click to conversion and from conversion to refund have opposite effects, making traditional CVR modeling methods inapplicable. Moreover, the lack of open-source datasets and online continuous training schemes further hinders progress in this area.To address these challenges, we introduce CASCADE (Cascaded Sequences of Conversion and Delayed Refund), the first large-scale open dataset derived from the Taobao app for online continuous NetCVR prediction. Through an in-depth analysis of CASCADE, we identify three key insights: (1) NetCVR exhibits strong temporal dynamics, necessitating online continuous modeling; (2) cascaded modeling of CVR and refund rate outperforms direct NetCVR modeling; and (3) delay time, which correlates with both CVR and refund rate, is an important feature for NetCVR prediction.Based on these insights, we propose TESLA, a continuous NetCVR modeling framework featuring a CVR-refund-rate cascaded architecture, stage-wise debiasing, and a delay-time-aware ranking loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TESLA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on CASCADE, achieving absolute improvements of 12.41 percent in RI-AUC and 14.94 percent in RI-PRAUC on NetCVR prediction. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/NetCVR.

Vision-Language Action (VLA) models significantly advance robotic manipulation by leveraging the strong perception capabilities of pretrained vision-language models (VLMs). By integrating action modules into these pretrained models, VLA methods exhibit improved generalization. However, training them from scratch is costly. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective distillation-based framework that equips VLMs with action-execution capability by transferring knowledge from pretrained small action models. Our architecture retains the original VLM structure, adding only an action token and a state encoder to incorporate physical inputs. To distill action knowledge, we adopt a two-stage training strategy. First, we perform lightweight alignment by mapping VLM hidden states into the action space of the small action model, enabling effective reuse of its pretrained action decoder and avoiding expensive pretraining. Second, we selectively fine-tune the language model, state encoder, and action modules, enabling the system to integrate multimodal inputs with precise action generation. Specifically, the action token provides the VLM with a direct handle for predicting future actions, while the state encoder allows the model to incorporate robot dynamics not captured by vision alone. This design yields substantial efficiency gains over training large VLA models from scratch. Compared with previous state-of-the-art methods, our method achieves 97.3% average success rate on LIBERO (11.8% improvement) and 93.5% on LIBERO-LONG (24.5% improvement). In real-world experiments across five manipulation tasks, our method consistently outperforms the teacher model, achieving 82.0% success rate (17% improvement), which demonstrate that action distillation effectively enables VLMs to generate precise actions while substantially reducing training costs.

Latent Chain-of-Thought (Latent-CoT) aims to enable step-by-step computation without emitting long rationales, yet its mechanisms remain unclear. We study CODI, a continuous-thought teacher-student distillation model, on strictly sequential polynomial-iteration tasks. Using logit-lens decoding, linear probes, attention analysis, and activation patching, we localize intermediate-state representations and trace their routing to the final readout. On two- and three-hop tasks, CODI forms the full set of bridge states that become decodable across latent-thought positions, while the final input follows a separate near-direct route; predictions arise via late fusion at the end-of-thought boundary. For longer hop lengths, CODI does not reliably execute a full latent rollout, instead exhibiting a partial latent reasoning path that concentrates on late intermediates and fuses them with the last input at the answer readout position. Ablations show that this partial pathway can collapse under regime shifts, including harder optimization. Overall, we delineate when CODI-style latent-CoT yields faithful iterative computation versus compressed or shortcut strategies, and highlight challenges in designing robust latent-CoT objectives for sequential reasoning.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) simplifies reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for large language models (LLMs) by directly optimizing human preferences without an explicit reward model. We find that during DPO training, the reference model plays the role of a data weight adjuster. However, the common practice of initializing the policy and reference models identically in DPO can lead to inefficient data utilization and impose a performance ceiling. Meanwhile, the lack of a reference model in Simple Preference Optimization (SimPO) reduces training robustness and necessitates stricter conditions to prevent catastrophic forgetting. In this work, we propose Pre-DPO, a simple yet effective DPO-based training paradigm that enhances preference optimization performance by leveraging a guiding reference model. This reference model provides foresight into the optimal policy state achievable through the training preference data, serving as a guiding mechanism that adaptively assigns higher weights to samples more suitable for the model and lower weights to those less suitable. Extensive experiments on AlpacaEval 2.0 and Arena-Hard v0.1 benchmarks demonstrate that Pre-DPO consistently improves the performance of both DPO and SimPO, without relying on external models or additional data.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible "dead-ends" of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a "medical dead-end" indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate "treatment security" as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Time series modeling presents unique challenges due to autocorrelation in both historical data and future sequences. While current research predominantly addresses autocorrelation within historical data, the correlations among future labels are often overlooked. Specifically, modern forecasting models primarily adhere to the Direct Forecast (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts independently and disregarding label autocorrelation over time. In this work, we demonstrate that the learning objective of DF is biased in the presence of label autocorrelation. To address this issue, we propose the Frequency-enhanced Direct Forecast (FreDF), which mitigates label autocorrelation by learning to forecast in the frequency domain, thereby reducing estimation bias. Our experiments show that FreDF significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods and is compatible with a variety of forecast models. Code is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/FreDF.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

The annealing phase is a pivotal convergence stage in LLM pre-training that ultimately determines final model quality. However, effectively selecting training data during this phase remains a key challenge. Current strategies rely on empirical heuristics, such as domain filtering or context extension, which lack a principled grounding in optimization theory. In this work, we characterize the annealing phase through the lens of the loss landscape's spectral geometry. We argue that optimal convergence requires gradient updates to satisfy heterogeneous constraints across different eigen-directions. Building on this insight, we formulate data selection as a problem of satisfying these directional constraints. To this end, we propose DiReCT (Directionally-Restrained Constrained Training), a novel framework that reformulates sample selection in the annealing stage as a constrained optimization problem. By imposing explicit directional constraints on per-sample gradients based on the spectral properties of the Hessian, DiReCT identifies samples that align with the optimal curvature-aware descent path. Extensive experiments across various model scales demonstrate that DiReCT consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. For future research, code is available at https://github.com/xuyj233/Direct.

Recent work on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has pointed out that algorithmic information about good policies can be extracted from offline data which lack explicit information about executed actions. For example, videos of humans or robots may convey a lot of implicit information about rewarding action sequences, but a DRL machine that wants to profit from watching such videos must first learn by itself to identify and recognize relevant states/actions/rewards. Without relying on ground-truth annotations, our new method called Deep State Identifier learns to predict returns from episodes encoded as videos. Then it uses a kind of mask-based sensitivity analysis to extract/identify important critical states. Extensive experiments showcase our method's potential for understanding and improving agent behavior. The source code and the generated datasets are available at https://github.com/AI-Initiative-KAUST/VideoRLCS.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a powerful recipe for improving language-model reasoning, but it is expensive to repeat on every new strong model because the target model must generate many rollouts during training. As models scale, post-training itself becomes a bottleneck. We study a weak-to-strong alternative: run RL on a smaller model where rollouts are cheaper, then reuse what that RL run learned to improve a stronger target model. Directly distilling the post-RL weak teacher is not enough, because the teacher's final policy mixes useful RL gains with the limitations of the smaller model. We propose Direct On-Policy Distillation (Direct-OPD), which transfers the teacher's RL-induced policy shift instead. Direct-OPD compares the post-RL teacher with its own pre-RL reference and treats their log-ratio as a dense implicit reward for the student. In plain terms, the checkpoint pair tells us which actions RL made the weak model more or less likely to take, and Direct-OPD applies that signal on the stronger student's own on-policy states. This directly reuses the weak model's RL supervision signal without running sparse-reward RL on the target model. Empirically, Direct-OPD consistently leverages weaker teachers to improve stronger target models; notably, it boosts Qwen3-1.7B from 48.3% to 58.3% on AIME 2024 in just 4 hours on 8 A100 GPUs. It outperforms step-matched direct RL and enables the sequential composition of multiple policy shifts. Our results show that RL outcomes can be reused across model scales as implicit reward signals, not merely as final models to imitate.

In the post-training of large language models (LLMs), Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is an effective approach to achieve generation aligned with human preferences. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) allows for policy training with a simple binary cross-entropy loss without a reward model. The objective of DPO is regularized by reverse KL divergence that encourages mode-seeking fitting to the reference policy. Nonetheless, we indicate that minimizing reverse KL divergence could fail to capture a mode of the reference distribution, which may hurt the policy's performance. Based on this observation, we propose a simple modification to DPO, H-DPO, which allows for control over the entropy of the resulting policy, enhancing the distribution's sharpness and thereby enabling mode-seeking fitting more effectively. In our experiments, we show that H-DPO outperformed DPO across various tasks, demonstrating superior results in pass@k evaluations for mathematical tasks. Moreover, H-DPO is simple to implement, requiring only minor modifications to the loss calculation of DPO, which makes it highly practical and promising for wide-ranging applications in the training of LLMs.

Reinforcement Learning From Human Feedback (RLHF) has been a critical to the success of the latest generation of generative AI models. In response to the complex nature of the classical RLHF pipeline, direct alignment algorithms such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) have emerged as an alternative approach. Although DPO solves the same objective as the standard RLHF setup, there is a mismatch between the two approaches. Standard RLHF deploys reinforcement learning in a specific token-level MDP, while DPO is derived as a bandit problem in which the whole response of the model is treated as a single arm. In this work we rectify this difference, first we theoretically show that we can derive DPO in the token-level MDP as a general inverse Q-learning algorithm, which satisfies the Bellman equation. Using our theoretical results, we provide three concrete empirical insights. First, we show that because of its token level interpretation, DPO is able to perform some type of credit assignment. Next, we prove that under the token level formulation, classical search-based algorithms, such as MCTS, which have recently been applied to the language generation space, are equivalent to likelihood-based search on a DPO policy. Empirically we show that a simple beam search yields meaningful improvement over the base DPO policy. Finally, we show how the choice of reference policy causes implicit rewards to decline during training. We conclude by discussing applications of our work, including information elicitation in multi-tun dialogue, reasoning, agentic applications and end-to-end training of multi-model systems.

Representations are at the core of all deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods for both Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Many representation learning methods and theoretical frameworks have been developed to understand what constitutes an effective representation. However, the relationships between these methods and the shared properties among them remain unclear. In this paper, we show that many of these seemingly distinct methods and frameworks for state and history abstractions are, in fact, based on a common idea of self-predictive abstraction. Furthermore, we provide theoretical insights into the widely adopted objectives and optimization, such as the stop-gradient technique, in learning self-predictive representations. These findings together yield a minimalist algorithm to learn self-predictive representations for states and histories. We validate our theories by applying our algorithm to standard MDPs, MDPs with distractors, and POMDPs with sparse rewards. These findings culminate in a set of preliminary guidelines for RL practitioners.

Pre-trained Language Models (LMs) exhibit strong zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities; however, their behaviors are often difficult to control. By utilizing Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), it is possible to fine-tune unsupervised LMs to follow instructions and produce outputs that reflect human preferences. Despite its benefits, RLHF has been shown to potentially harm a language model's reasoning capabilities and introduce artifacts such as hallucinations where the model may fabricate facts. To address this issue we introduce Direct Preference Heads (DPH), a fine-tuning framework that enables LMs to learn human preference signals through an auxiliary reward head without directly affecting the output distribution of the language modeling head. We perform a theoretical analysis of our objective function and find strong ties to Conservative Direct Preference Optimization (cDPO). Finally we evaluate our models on GLUE, RACE, and the GPT4All evaluation suite and demonstrate that our method produces models which achieve higher scores than those fine-tuned with Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) or Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) alone.

Large language models can answer scientific questions, yet a correct output does not reveal whether the model represents or uses the governing physics. Here we show that materials science mechanism information in the open-weight google/gemma-4-E4B-it model has three experimentally separable forms: concepts are readable in individual hidden states, constitutive orientation is carried by controlled transformations between states, and selected internal representations causally control engineering answers. We combine matched direct and Jacobian vocabulary readouts, option-free state geometry, a 60-law counterfactual benchmark and causal interventions. In 50 held-out materials descriptions, three independently fitted Jacobian lenses reproduced concept ranks, and target-free word sets from both readouts enabled blinded identification of 9 of 10 mechanism families. A separate 72-prompt benchmark produced mechanism-specific hidden-state neighborhoods, but an exact graph audit showed that this apparent physical organization was equally explained by numerical comparison. We therefore compared otherwise identical prompts in which only the direction of the physical input was reversed, asking whether the resulting hidden-state movement followed the supplied constitutive law. These state transformations ordered direct, physically neutral and inverse laws across 60 frozen relations and correctly oriented 39 of 40 directional laws, whereas lexical controls were near chance. Bidirectional interventions shifted answer probabilities toward or away from the physically appropriate outcome across all 12 matched cases, while counterfactual state patches transferred opposing decision signals across mechanisms and answer formats. Physical relationships were therefore more visible in controlled state changes than in absolute states alone.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the ell_1 error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to poly log n factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between ell_1 error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, k-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.

We present DIRECT-3D, a diffusion-based 3D generative model for creating high-quality 3D assets (represented by Neural Radiance Fields) from text prompts. Unlike recent 3D generative models that rely on clean and well-aligned 3D data, limiting them to single or few-class generation, our model is directly trained on extensive noisy and unaligned `in-the-wild' 3D assets, mitigating the key challenge (i.e., data scarcity) in large-scale 3D generation. In particular, DIRECT-3D is a tri-plane diffusion model that integrates two innovations: 1) A novel learning framework where noisy data are filtered and aligned automatically during the training process. Specifically, after an initial warm-up phase using a small set of clean data, an iterative optimization is introduced in the diffusion process to explicitly estimate the 3D pose of objects and select beneficial data based on conditional density. 2) An efficient 3D representation that is achieved by disentangling object geometry and color features with two separate conditional diffusion models that are optimized hierarchically. Given a prompt input, our model generates high-quality, high-resolution, realistic, and complex 3D objects with accurate geometric details in seconds. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in both single-class generation and text-to-3D generation. We also demonstrate that DIRECT-3D can serve as a useful 3D geometric prior of objects, for example to alleviate the well-known Janus problem in 2D-lifting methods such as DreamFusion. The code and models are available for research purposes at: https://github.com/qihao067/direct3d.

Learning predictive models from observations using deep neural networks (DNNs) is a promising new approach to many real-world planning and control problems. However, common DNNs are too unstructured for effective planning, and current control methods typically rely on extensive sampling or local gradient descent. In this paper, we propose a new framework for integrated model learning and predictive control that is amenable to efficient optimization algorithms. Specifically, we start with a ReLU neural model of the system dynamics and, with minimal losses in prediction accuracy, we gradually sparsify it by removing redundant neurons. This discrete sparsification process is approximated as a continuous problem, enabling an end-to-end optimization of both the model architecture and the weight parameters. The sparsified model is subsequently used by a mixed-integer predictive controller, which represents the neuron activations as binary variables and employs efficient branch-and-bound algorithms. Our framework is applicable to a wide variety of DNNs, from simple multilayer perceptrons to complex graph neural dynamics. It can efficiently handle tasks involving complicated contact dynamics, such as object pushing, compositional object sorting, and manipulation of deformable objects. Numerical and hardware experiments show that, despite the aggressive sparsification, our framework can deliver better closed-loop performance than existing state-of-the-art methods.

Machine learning approaches to spatiotemporal physical systems have primarily focused on next-frame prediction, with the goal of learning an accurate emulator for the system's evolution in time. However, these emulators are computationally expensive to train and are subject to performance pitfalls, such as compounding errors during autoregressive rollout. In this work, we take a different perspective and look at scientific tasks further downstream of predicting the next frame, such as estimation of a system's governing physical parameters. Accuracy on these tasks offers a uniquely quantifiable glimpse into the physical relevance of the representations of these models. We evaluate the effectiveness of general-purpose self-supervised methods in learning physics-grounded representations that are useful for downstream scientific tasks. Surprisingly, we find that not all methods designed for physical modeling outperform generic self-supervised learning methods on these tasks, and methods that learn in the latent space (e.g., joint embedding predictive architectures, or JEPAs) outperform those optimizing pixel-level prediction objectives. Code is available at https://github.com/helenqu/physical-representation-learning.

Direct alignment algorithms such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) fine-tune models based on preference data, using only supervised learning instead of two-stage reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF). We show that DPO encodes a statistical estimation problem over reward functions induced by a parametric policy class. When the true reward function that generates preferences cannot be realized via the policy class, DPO becomes misspecified, resulting in failure modes such as preference order reversal, worsening of policy reward, and high sensitivity to the input preference data distribution. On the other hand, we study the local behavior of two-stage RLHF for a parametric class and relate it to a natural gradient step in policy space. Our fine-grained geometric characterization allows us to propose AuxDPO, which introduces additional auxiliary variables in the DPO loss function to help move towards the RLHF solution in a principled manner and mitigate the misspecification in DPO. We empirically demonstrate the superior performance of AuxDPO on didactic bandit settings as well as LLM alignment tasks.

Predicting the motion of other agents in a scene is highly relevant for autonomous driving, as it allows a self-driving car to anticipate. Inspired by the success of decoder-only models for language modeling, we propose DONUT, a Decoder-Only Network for Unrolling Trajectories. Unlike existing encoder-decoder forecasting models, we encode historical trajectories and predict future trajectories with a single autoregressive model. This allows the model to make iterative predictions in a consistent manner, and ensures that the model is always provided with up-to-date information, thereby enhancing performance. Furthermore, inspired by multi-token prediction for language modeling, we introduce an 'overprediction' strategy that gives the model the auxiliary task of predicting trajectories at longer temporal horizons. This allows the model to better anticipate the future and further improves performance. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our decoder-only approach outperforms the encoder-decoder baseline, and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the Argoverse 2 single-agent motion forecasting benchmark.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a lightweight and effective alternative to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and Reinforcement Learning with AI Feedback (RLAIF) for aligning large language and vision-language models. However, the standard DPO formulation, in which both the chosen and rejected responses are generated by the same policy, suffers from a weak learning signal because the two responses often share similar errors and exhibit small Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. This leads to slow and unstable convergence. To address this limitation, we introduce Reflective Preference Optimization (RPO), a new framework that incorporates hint-guided reflection into the DPO paradigm. RPO uses external models to identify hallucination sources and generate concise reflective hints, enabling the construction of on-policy preference pairs with stronger contrastiveness and clearer preference signals. We theoretically show that conditioning on hints increases the expected preference margin through mutual information and improves sample efficiency while remaining within the policy distribution family. Empirically, RPO achieves superior alignment with fewer training samples and iterations, substantially reducing hallucination rates and delivering state-of-the-art performance across multimodal benchmarks.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

The prevailing inference framework for diffusion models formulates generation fundamentally as a problem of numerical integration. This perspective casts the model as an exact estimator, neglecting the inherent statistical uncertainty of the denoising process. In this work, we propose Forward-Process Aligned Diffusion prediction (DiFA), a training-free framework that reframes inference-time data prediction refinement as a sequential state estimation problem. Rather than reusing past outputs solely for numerical integration, DiFA treats iterative data predictions along the reverse trajectory as correlated observations to build a forward-aligned temporal consensus. Inspired by Kalman filtering, this consensus aggregates historical predictions according to structural consistency and noise-level compatibility. To counteract the over-smoothing tendency of temporal consensus, we introduce a deviation guidance mechanism to adaptively preserve residual details. Empirically, DiFA yields significant improvements on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet across the evaluated metrics, including FID, IS, and FD-DINOv2, demonstrating that aligning inference with the forward statistical structure substantially improves generative fidelity.

Modern Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), such as RWKV, are distinguished by their powerful short-range modeling capabilities and efficient fixed-size states, which constitute a core advantage over standard Transformers. However, there is a significant lack of research into their internal state as an editable knowledge representation. To fill this gap, we first explore the representational properties of the RWKV state by proposing the DREAMSTATE framework. This framework utilizes a conditional Diffusion Transformer (DiT) to directly model the probability manifold of the state, enabling its generation and editing. The structural nature of this representation is validated through t-SNE visualizations and controlled generation experiments. After successfully uncovering and modeling the state's representational potential, we further propose a novel hybrid architecture that combines the local advantages of RNNs with global context adaptability. This architecture features a parallel DiT that processes a variable-length global context to dynamically generate and adjust the core recurrent module's WKV parameters, transforming the fixed recurrence mechanism into a context-aware dynamic function. Experiments demonstrate that this hybrid model can be trained stably via a multi-objective loss, validating its design feasibility. Our work not only opens a new research direction for RNN state representation but also provides a concrete architectural reference for future model design. The code is publicly available at: https://huggingface.co/2dgx41s/DreamState.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Direct preference optimization (DPO), a widely adopted offline preference optimization algorithm, aims to align large language models (LLMs) with human-desired behaviors using pairwise preference data. However, the winning response and the losing response within pairwise data are generated isolatedly, leading to weak correlations between them as well as suboptimal alignment performance. To address this issue, we propose an effective framework named BMC, for bridging and modeling correlations in pairwise data. Firstly, we increase the consistency and informativeness of the pairwise preference signals by targeted modifications, synthesizing a pseudo winning response through improving the losing response based on the winning response. Secondly, we identify that DPO alone is insufficient to model these correlations and capture nuanced variations. Therefore, we propose learning token-level correlations by dynamically leveraging the policy model's confidence during training. Comprehensive experiments on QA, math, and instruction-following tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, significantly surpassing competitive baselines, including DPO. Additionally, our in-depth quantitative analysis reveals the reasons behind our method's superior performance over DPO and showcases its versatility to other DPO variants.

Inference-Time-Compute (ITC) methods like Best-of-N and Tree-of-Thoughts are meant to produce output candidates that are both high-quality and diverse, but their use of high-temperature sampling often fails to achieve meaningful output diversity. Moreover, existing ITC methods offer limited control over how to perform reasoning, which in turn limits their explainability. We present STATe-of-Thoughts (STATe), an interpretable ITC method that searches over high-level reasoning patterns. STATe replaces stochastic sampling with discrete and interpretable textual interventions: a controller selects actions encoding high-level reasoning choices, a generator produces reasoning steps conditioned on those choices, and an evaluator scores candidates to guide search. This structured approach yields three main advantages. First, action-guided textual interventions produce greater response diversity than temperature-based sampling. Second, in a case study on argument generation, STATe's explicit action sequences capture interpretable features that are highly predictive of output quality. Third, estimating the association between performance and action choices allows us to identify promising yet unexplored regions of the action space and steer generation directly toward them. Together, these results establish STATe as a practical framework for generating high-quality, diverse, and interpretable text. Our framework is available at https://github.com/zbambergerNLP/state-of-thoughts.

With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs), aligning policy models with human preferences has become increasingly critical. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a promising approach for alignment, acting as an RL-free alternative to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). Despite DPO's various advancements and inherent limitations, an in-depth review of these aspects is currently lacking in the literature. In this work, we present a comprehensive review of the challenges and opportunities in DPO, covering theoretical analyses, variants, relevant preference datasets, and applications. Specifically, we categorize recent studies on DPO based on key research questions to provide a thorough understanding of DPO's current landscape. Additionally, we propose several future research directions to offer insights on model alignment for the research community.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

The extraction of invariant causal relationships from time series data with environmental attributes is critical for robust decision-making in domains such as climate science and environmental monitoring. However, existing methods either emphasize dynamic causal analysis without leveraging environmental contexts or focus on static invariant causal inference, leaving a gap in distributed temporal settings. In this paper, we propose Distributed Dynamic Invariant Causal Prediction in Time-series (DisDy-ICPT), a novel framework that learns dynamic causal relationships over time while mitigating spatial confounding variables without requiring data communication. We theoretically prove that DisDy-ICPT recovers stable causal predictors within a bounded number of communication rounds under standard sampling assumptions. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and environment-segmented real-world datasets show that DisDy-ICPT achieves superior predictive stability and accuracy compared to baseline methods A and B. Our approach offers promising applications in carbon monitoring and weather forecasting. Future work will extend DisDy-ICPT to online learning scenarios.

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models demonstrate that visual signals can effectively complement sparse action supervisions. However, letting VLA directly predict high-dimensional visual states can distribute model capacity and incur prohibitive training cost, while compressing visual states into more compact supervisory signals inevitably incurs information bottlenecks. Moreover, existing methods often suffer from poor comprehension and reasoning capabilities due to the neglect of language supervision. This paper introduces Mantis, a novel framework featuring a Disentangled Visual Foresight (DVF) to tackle these issues. Specifically, Mantis decouples visual foresight prediction from the backbone with the combination of meta queries and a diffusion Transformer (DiT) head. With the current visual state provided to the DiT via a residual connection, a simple next-state prediction objective enables the meta queries to automatically capture the latent actions that delineate the visual trajectory, and hence boost the learning of explicit actions. The disentanglement reduces the burden of the VLA backbone, enabling it to maintain comprehension and reasoning capabilities through language supervision. Empirically, pretrained on human manipulation videos, robot demonstrations, and image-text pairs, Mantis achieves a 96.7% success rate on LIBERO benchmark after fine-tuning, surpassing powerful baselines while exhibiting high convergence speed. Real-world evaluations show that Mantis outperforms π_{0.5}, a leading open-source VLA model, particularly in instruction-following capability, generalization to unseen instructions, and reasoning ability. Code and weights are released to support the open-source community.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

We address the problem of incrementally modeling and forecasting long-term goals of a first-person camera wearer: what the user will do, where they will go, and what goal they seek. In contrast to prior work in trajectory forecasting, our algorithm, DARKO, goes further to reason about semantic states (will I pick up an object?), and future goal states that are far in terms of both space and time. DARKO learns and forecasts from first-person visual observations of the user's daily behaviors via an Online Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) approach. Classical IRL discovers only the rewards in a batch setting, whereas DARKO discovers the states, transitions, rewards, and goals of a user from streaming data. Among other results, we show DARKO forecasts goals better than competing methods in both noisy and ideal settings, and our approach is theoretically and empirically no-regret.

World models serve as essential building blocks toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), enabling intelligent agents to predict future states and plan actions by simulating complex physical interactions. However, existing interactive models primarily predict visual observations, thereby neglecting crucial hidden states like geometric structures and spatial coherence. This leads to rapid error accumulation and temporal inconsistency. To address these limitations, we introduce DeepVerse, a novel 4D interactive world model explicitly incorporating geometric predictions from previous timesteps into current predictions conditioned on actions. Experiments demonstrate that by incorporating explicit geometric constraints, DeepVerse captures richer spatio-temporal relationships and underlying physical dynamics. This capability significantly reduces drift and enhances temporal consistency, enabling the model to reliably generate extended future sequences and achieve substantial improvements in prediction accuracy, visual realism, and scene rationality. Furthermore, our method provides an effective solution for geometry-aware memory retrieval, effectively preserving long-term spatial consistency. We validate the effectiveness of DeepVerse across diverse scenarios, establishing its capacity for high-fidelity, long-horizon predictions grounded in geometry-aware dynamics.

Predictive Physical AI systems output state rollouts, action chunks, and latent plans, yet a low root-mean-square error (RMSE) does not imply that a particular proposal is physically executable. We formulate physical admissibility as a prediction-control interface: before execution, a decoded proposal is treated as candidate dynamics and evaluated using kinematic, dynamic, and direct-to-composed horizon conditions. Passing is not a certificate of task success; rejection identifies violation of the specified physical envelope and gives a component-level reason. On Hugging Face LeRobot PushT, controlled falsification shows that one-step prediction-RMSE and standardized dynamics residuals reach area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.982 and 0.972, kinematic-only conditions reach AUC 0.592, and the full gate reaches AUC 0.957 with condition-level attribution. In replay-based intervention experiments, residual-based filters and the full physical-admissibility gate prevent 87-$89% of invalid proposals while preserving mean progress near 0.998.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

Diffusion large language models (DLLMs) have the potential to enable fast text generation by decoding multiple tokens in parallel. However, in practice, their inference efficiency is constrained by the need for many refinement steps, while aggressively reducing the number of steps leads to a substantial degradation in generation quality. To alleviate this, we propose a trajectory self-distillation framework that improves few-step decoding by distilling the model's own generative trajectories. We incorporate Direct Discriminative Optimization (DDO), a reverse-KL objective that promotes mode-seeking distillation and encourages the student to concentrate on high-probability teacher modes. Across benchmarks, our approach consistently outperforms strong few-step baselines and standard training under tight step budgets. Although full-step decoding remains superior, we substantially narrow the gap, establishing a strong foundation towards practical few-step DLLMs. The source code is available at https://github.com/Tyrion58/T3D.

Predicting the dynamics of interacting objects is essential for both humans and intelligent systems. However, existing approaches are limited to simplified, toy settings and lack generalizability to complex, real-world environments. Recent advances in generative models have enabled the prediction of state transitions based on interventions, but focus on generating a single future state which neglects the continuous dynamics resulting from the interaction. To address this gap, we propose InterDyn, a novel framework that generates videos of interactive dynamics given an initial frame and a control signal encoding the motion of a driving object or actor. Our key insight is that large video generation models can act as both neural renderers and implicit physics ``simulators'', having learned interactive dynamics from large-scale video data. To effectively harness this capability, we introduce an interactive control mechanism that conditions the video generation process on the motion of the driving entity. Qualitative results demonstrate that InterDyn generates plausible, temporally consistent videos of complex object interactions while generalizing to unseen objects. Quantitative evaluations show that InterDyn outperforms baselines that focus on static state transitions. This work highlights the potential of leveraging video generative models as implicit physics engines. Project page: https://interdyn.is.tue.mpg.de/

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Decoder-only transformers have become the standard architecture for large language models (LLMs) due to their strong performance. Recent studies suggest that, in pre-trained LLMs, early, middle, and late layers may serve distinct roles: Early layers focus on understanding the input context, middle layers handle task-specific processing, and late layers convert abstract representations into output tokens. We hypothesize that once representations have been processed by the early and middle layers, the resulting hidden states may encapsulate sufficient information to support the generation of multiple tokens using only the late layers, eliminating the need to repeatedly traverse the early and middle layers. We refer to this inference paradigm as Direct Multi-Token Decoding (DMTD). Unlike speculative decoding, our method introduces no additional parameters, auxiliary routines, or post-generation verification. Despite being trained on a limited dataset, a fine-tuned DMTD Qwen3-4B model has already demonstrated promising results, achieving up to a 2x speedup with only minor performance loss. Moreover, as shown in our scaling analysis, its performance is expected to further improve with larger training datasets.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values is an increasingly critical step in post-training. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a simple, yet effective alternative to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Synthetic preference data with its low cost and high quality enable effective alignment through single- or multi-model generated preference data. Our study reveals a striking, safety-specific phenomenon associated with DPO alignment: Although multi-model generated data enhances performance on general tasks (ARC, Hellaswag, MMLU, TruthfulQA, Winogrande) by providing diverse responses, it also tends to facilitate reward hacking during training. This can lead to a high attack success rate (ASR) when models encounter jailbreaking prompts. The issue is particularly pronounced when employing stronger models like GPT-4o or larger models in the same family to generate chosen responses paired with target model self-generated rejected responses, resulting in dramatically poorer safety outcomes. Furthermore, with respect to safety, using solely self-generated responses (single-model generation) for both chosen and rejected pairs significantly outperforms configurations that incorporate responses from stronger models, whether used directly as chosen data or as part of a multi-model response pool. We demonstrate that multi-model preference data exhibits high linear separability between chosen and rejected responses, which allows models to exploit superficial cues rather than internalizing robust safety constraints. Our experiments, conducted on models from the Llama, Mistral, and Qwen families, consistently validate these findings.

Robotic manipulation requires anticipating how the environment evolves in response to actions, yet most existing systems lack this predictive capability, often resulting in errors and inefficiency. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide high-level guidance, they cannot explicitly forecast future states, and existing world models either predict only short horizons or produce spatially inconsistent frames. To address these challenges, we propose a framework for fast and predictive video-conditioned action. Our approach first selects and adapts a robust video generation model to ensure reliable future predictions, then applies adversarial distillation for fast, few-step video generation, and finally trains an action model that leverages both generated videos and real observations to correct spatial errors. Extensive experiments show that our method produces temporally coherent, spatially accurate video predictions that directly support precise manipulation, achieving significant improvements in embodiment consistency, spatial referring ability, and task completion over existing baselines. Codes & Models will be released.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Large language model post-training methods such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT), reinforcement learning (RL), and distillation are often analyzed through their loss functions: maximum likelihood, policy gradients, forward KL, reverse KL, or related objective-level variants. We study a complementary factor: the state distribution on which supervision is applied. For an autoregressive policy, a state is a prompt plus generated prefix. SFT trains on fixed dataset states, while RL and on-policy distillation (OPD) train on states induced by the current learner. We formalize post-training as state-distribution shaping and run a controlled smallscale study using Qwen3-0.6B-Base on GSM8K, with TruthfulQA and MMLU as retention evaluations. Our results show three phenomena. First, a mild SFT run improves GSM8K with little forgetting, while a stress SFT run causes substantial retention loss. Second, OPD from a degraded SFT teacher surpasses that teacher on GSM8K, TruthfulQA, and MMLU, despite using the teacher as its only supervision source. Third, a lightweight on-policy RL run improves GSM8K while preserving retention. These results support a state-centric view of post-training: the source and locality of training states can be as important as the form of the supervision signal.

World models are essential for autonomous robotic planning. However, the substantial computational overhead of existing dense Transformerbased models significantly hinders real-time deployment. To address this efficiency-performance bottleneck, we introduce DDP-WM, a novel world model centered on the principle of Disentangled Dynamics Prediction (DDP). We hypothesize that latent state evolution in observed scenes is heterogeneous and can be decomposed into sparse primary dynamics driven by physical interactions and secondary context-driven background updates. DDP-WM realizes this decomposition through an architecture that integrates efficient historical processing with dynamic localization to isolate primary dynamics. By employing a crossattention mechanism for background updates, the framework optimizes resource allocation and provides a smooth optimization landscape for planners. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DDP-WM achieves significant efficiency and performance across diverse tasks, including navigation, precise tabletop manipulation, and complex deformable or multi-body interactions. Specifically, on the challenging Push-T task, DDP-WM achieves an approximately 9 times inference speedup and improves the MPC success rate from 90% to98% compared to state-of-the-art dense models. The results establish a promising path for developing efficient, high-fidelity world models. Codes will be available at https://github.com/HCPLab-SYSU/DDP-WM.

The emerging zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to their applications in areas extending well beyond natural language processing tasks. In reinforcement learning, while LLMs have been extensively used in text-based environments, their integration with continuous state spaces remains understudied. In this paper, we investigate how pre-trained LLMs can be leveraged to predict in context the dynamics of continuous Markov decision processes. We identify handling multivariate data and incorporating the control signal as key challenges that limit the potential of LLMs' deployment in this setup and propose Disentangled In-Context Learning (DICL) to address them. We present proof-of-concept applications in two reinforcement learning settings: model-based policy evaluation and data-augmented off-policy reinforcement learning, supported by theoretical analysis of the proposed methods. Our experiments further demonstrate that our approach produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/dicl.

We introduce Masked Trajectory Models (MTM) as a generic abstraction for sequential decision making. MTM takes a trajectory, such as a state-action sequence, and aims to reconstruct the trajectory conditioned on random subsets of the same trajectory. By training with a highly randomized masking pattern, MTM learns versatile networks that can take on different roles or capabilities, by simply choosing appropriate masks at inference time. For example, the same MTM network can be used as a forward dynamics model, inverse dynamics model, or even an offline RL agent. Through extensive experiments in several continuous control tasks, we show that the same MTM network -- i.e. same weights -- can match or outperform specialized networks trained for the aforementioned capabilities. Additionally, we find that state representations learned by MTM can significantly accelerate the learning speed of traditional RL algorithms. Finally, in offline RL benchmarks, we find that MTM is competitive with specialized offline RL algorithms, despite MTM being a generic self-supervised learning method without any explicit RL components. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/mtm

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that addresses these challenges through two key innovations: a state space model (SSM) based encoder and a functional basis decoder. This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons. In contrast to other state-of-the-art TSFMs, which require training data across all possible sampling rates to memorize patterns at each scale, FlowState inherently adapts its internal dynamics to the input scale, enabling smaller models, reduced data requirements, and improved efficiency. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being the smallest model, FlowState outperforms all other models and is state-of-the-art for the GIFT-ZS and the Chronos-ZS benchmarks. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt online to varying input sampling rates.

Learning domain adaptive policies that can generalize to unseen transition dynamics, remains a fundamental challenge in learning-based control. Substantial progress has been made through domain representation learning to capture domain-specific information, thus enabling domain-aware decision making. We analyze the process of learning domain representations through dynamical prediction and find that selecting contexts adjacent to the current step causes the learned representations to entangle static domain information with varying dynamical properties. Such mixture can confuse the conditioned policy, thereby constraining zero-shot adaptation. To tackle the challenge, we propose DADP (Domain Adaptive Diffusion Policy), which achieves robust adaptation through unsupervised disentanglement and domain-aware diffusion injection. First, we introduce Lagged Context Dynamical Prediction, a strategy that conditions future state estimation on a historical offset context; by increasing this temporal gap, we unsupervisedly disentangle static domain representations by filtering out transient properties. Second, we integrate the learned domain representations directly into the generative process by biasing the prior distribution and reformulating the diffusion target. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmarks across locomotion and manipulation demonstrate the superior performance, and the generalizability of DADP over prior methods. More visualization results are available on the https://outsider86.github.io/DomainAdaptiveDiffusionPolicy/.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

We approach designing a state-space model for deep learning applications through its dual representation, the transfer function, and uncover a highly efficient sequence parallel inference algorithm that is state-free: unlike other proposed algorithms, state-free inference does not incur any significant memory or computational cost with an increase in state size. We achieve this using properties of the proposed frequency domain transfer function parametrization, which enables direct computation of its corresponding convolutional kernel's spectrum via a single Fast Fourier Transform. Our experimental results across multiple sequence lengths and state sizes illustrates, on average, a 35% training speed improvement over S4 layers -- parametrized in time-domain -- on the Long Range Arena benchmark, while delivering state-of-the-art downstream performances over other attention-free approaches. Moreover, we report improved perplexity in language modeling over a long convolutional Hyena baseline, by simply introducing our transfer function parametrization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruke1ire/RTF.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

Autoregressive video world models predict future visual observations conditioned on actions. While effective over short horizons, these models often struggle with long-horizon generation, as small prediction errors accumulate over time. Prior methods alleviate this by introducing pre-trained teacher models and sequence-level distribution matching, which incur additional computational cost and fail to prevent error propagation beyond the training horizon. In this work, we propose LIVE, a Long-horizon Interactive Video world modEl that enforces bounded error accumulation via a novel cycle-consistency objective, thereby eliminating the need for teacher-based distillation. Specifically, LIVE first performs a forward rollout from ground-truth frames and then applies a reverse generation process to reconstruct the initial state. The diffusion loss is subsequently computed on the reconstructed terminal state, providing an explicit constraint on long-horizon error propagation. Moreover, we provide an unified view that encompasses different approaches and introduce progressive training curriculum to stabilize training. Experiments demonstrate that LIVE achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon benchmarks, generating stable, high-quality videos far beyond training rollout lengths.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has become a widely used training method for the instruction fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs). In this work, we explore an under-investigated aspect of DPO - its dependency on the reference model or policy. Such reference policies, typically instantiated as the model to be further fine-tuned, are important since they can impose an upper limit on DPO's effectiveness. Therefore, we address three related research questions in this work. First, we explore the optimal strength of the KL-divergence constraint in DPO, which penalizes deviations from the reference policy, and find that DPO is sensitive to this strength. Next, we examine the necessity of reference policies for instruction fine-tuning by providing both theoretical and empirical comparisons between DPO and related learning objectives, demonstrating DPO's superiority. Additionally, we investigate whether DPO benefits from stronger reference policies, finding that a stronger reference policy can lead to improved performance, but only when it is similar to the model being fine-tuned. Our findings highlight the confounding role of reference policies in DPO and offer insights for best practices, while also identifying open research questions for future studies.

Active inference is a first principles approach for understanding the brain in particular, and sentient agents in general, with the single imperative of minimizing free energy. As such, it provides a computational account for modelling artificial intelligent agents, by defining the agent's generative model and inferring the model parameters, actions and hidden state beliefs. However, the exact specification of the generative model and the hidden state space structure is left to the experimenter, whose design choices influence the resulting behaviour of the agent. Recently, deep learning methods have been proposed to learn a hidden state space structure purely from data, alleviating the experimenter from this tedious design task, but resulting in an entangled, non-interpreteable state space. In this paper, we hypothesize that such a learnt, entangled state space does not necessarily yield the best model in terms of free energy, and that enforcing different factors in the state space can yield a lower model complexity. In particular, we consider the problem of 3D object representation, and focus on different instances of the ShapeNet dataset. We propose a model that factorizes object shape, pose and category, while still learning a representation for each factor using a deep neural network. We show that models, with best disentanglement properties, perform best when adopted by an active agent in reaching preferred observations.

Direct preference optimization (DPO) is a form of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) where the policy is learned directly from preferential feedback. Although many models of human preferences exist, the critical task of selecting the most informative feedback for training them is under-explored. We propose an active learning framework for DPO, which can be applied to collect human feedback online or to choose the most informative subset of already collected feedback offline. We propose efficient algorithms for both settings. The key idea is to linearize the DPO objective at the last layer of the neural network representation of the optimized policy and then compute the D-optimal design to collect preferential feedback. We prove that the errors in our DPO logit estimates diminish with more feedback. We show the effectiveness of our algorithms empirically in the setting that matches our theory and also on large language models.

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.

Anticipating diverse future states is a central challenge in video world modeling. Discriminative world models produce a deterministic prediction that implicitly averages over possible futures, while existing generative world models remain computationally expensive. Recent work demonstrates that predicting the future in the feature space of a vision foundation model (VFM), rather than a latent space optimized for pixel reconstruction, requires significantly fewer world model parameters. However, most such approaches remain discriminative. In this work, we introduce DeltaTok, a tokenizer that encodes the VFM feature difference between consecutive frames into a single continuous "delta" token, and DeltaWorld, a generative world model operating on these tokens to efficiently generate diverse plausible futures. Delta tokens reduce video from a three-dimensional spatio-temporal representation to a one-dimensional temporal sequence, for example yielding a 1,024x token reduction with 512x512 frames. This compact representation enables tractable multi-hypothesis training, where many futures are generated in parallel and only the best is supervised. At inference, this leads to diverse predictions in a single forward pass. Experiments on dense forecasting tasks demonstrate that DeltaWorld forecasts futures that more closely align with real-world outcomes, while having over 35x fewer parameters and using 2,000x fewer FLOPs than existing generative world models. Code and weights: https://deltatok.github.io.

While many real-world problems that might benefit from reinforcement learning, these problems rarely fit into the MDP mold: interacting with the environment is often expensive and specifying reward functions is challenging. Motivated by these challenges, prior work has developed data-driven approaches that learn entirely from samples from the transition dynamics and examples of high-return states. These methods typically learn a reward function from high-return states, use that reward function to label the transitions, and then apply an offline RL algorithm to these transitions. While these methods can achieve good results on many tasks, they can be complex, often requiring regularization and temporal difference updates. In this paper, we propose a method for offline, example-based control that learns an implicit model of multi-step transitions, rather than a reward function. We show that this implicit model can represent the Q-values for the example-based control problem. Across a range of state-based and image-based offline control tasks, our method outperforms baselines that use learned reward functions; additional experiments demonstrate improved robustness and scaling with dataset size.

Temporal difference (TD) learning and its variants, such as multistage TD (MS-TD) learning and temporal coherence (TC) learning, have been successfully applied to 2048. These methods rely on the stochasticity of the environment of 2048 for exploration. In this paper, we propose to employ optimistic initialization (OI) to encourage exploration for 2048, and empirically show that the learning quality is significantly improved. This approach optimistically initializes the feature weights to very large values. Since weights tend to be reduced once the states are visited, agents tend to explore those states which are unvisited or visited few times. Our experiments show that both TD and TC learning with OI significantly improve the performance. As a result, the network size required to achieve the same performance is significantly reduced. With additional tunings such as expectimax search, multistage learning, and tile-downgrading technique, our design achieves the state-of-the-art performance, namely an average score of 625 377 and a rate of 72% reaching 32768 tiles. In addition, for sufficiently large tests, 65536 tiles are reached at a rate of 0.02%.

Large Language models are revolutionizing the conversational recommender systems through their impressive capabilities in instruction comprehension, reasoning, and human interaction. A core factor underlying effective recommendation dialogue is the ability to infer and reason about users' mental states (such as desire, intention, and belief), a cognitive capacity commonly referred to as Theory of Mind. Despite growing interest in evaluating ToM in LLMs, current benchmarks predominantly rely on synthetic narratives inspired by Sally-Anne test, which emphasize physical perception and fail to capture the complexity of mental state inference in realistic conversational settings. Moreover, existing benchmarks often overlook a critical component of human ToM: behavioral prediction, the ability to use inferred mental states to guide strategic decision-making and select appropriate conversational actions for future interactions. To better align LLM-based ToM evaluation with human-like social reasoning, we propose RecToM, a novel benchmark for evaluating ToM abilities in recommendation dialogues. RecToM focuses on two complementary dimensions: Cognitive Inference and Behavioral Prediction. The former focus on understanding what has been communicated by inferring the underlying mental states. The latter emphasizes what should be done next, evaluating whether LLMs can leverage these inferred mental states to predict, select, and assess appropriate dialogue strategies. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate that RecToM poses a significant challenge. While the models exhibit partial competence in recognizing mental states, they struggle to maintain coherent, strategic ToM reasoning throughout dynamic recommendation dialogues, particularly in tracking evolving intentions and aligning conversational strategies with inferred mental states.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Recent studies have shown that large language models' (LLMs) mathematical problem-solving capabilities can be enhanced by integrating external tools, such as code interpreters, and employing multi-turn Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. While current methods focus on synthetic data generation and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), this paper studies the complementary direct preference learning approach to further improve model performance. However, existing direct preference learning algorithms are originally designed for the single-turn chat task, and do not fully address the complexities of multi-turn reasoning and external tool integration required for tool-integrated mathematical reasoning tasks. To fill in this gap, we introduce a multi-turn direct preference learning framework, tailored for this context, that leverages feedback from code interpreters and optimizes trajectory-level preferences. This framework includes multi-turn DPO and multi-turn KTO as specific implementations. The effectiveness of our framework is validated through training of various language models using an augmented prompt set from the GSM8K and MATH datasets. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements: a supervised fine-tuned Gemma-1.1-it-7B model's performance increased from 77.5% to 83.9% on GSM8K and from 46.1% to 51.2% on MATH. Similarly, a Gemma-2-it-9B model improved from 84.1% to 86.3% on GSM8K and from 51.0% to 54.5% on MATH.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Recently, unsupervised representation learning (URL) has improved the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by pretraining a model from a large unlabeled dataset. The underlying principle of these methods is to learn temporally predictive representations by predicting future states in the latent space. However, an important challenge of this approach is the representational collapse, where the subspace of the latent representations collapses into a low-dimensional manifold. To address this issue, we propose a novel URL framework that causally predicts future states while increasing the dimension of the latent manifold by decorrelating the features in the latent space. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that our framework effectively learns predictive representations without collapse, which significantly improves the sample efficiency of state-of-the-art URL methods on the Atari 100k benchmark. The code is available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/SimTPR.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

Recent advances in deep learning have mainly relied on Transformers due to their data dependency and ability to learn at scale. The attention module in these architectures, however, exhibits quadratic time and space in input size, limiting their scalability for long-sequence modeling. Despite recent attempts to design efficient and effective architecture backbone for multi-dimensional data, such as images and multivariate time series, existing models are either data independent, or fail to allow inter- and intra-dimension communication. Recently, State Space Models (SSMs), and more specifically Selective State Space Models, with efficient hardware-aware implementation, have shown promising potential for long sequence modeling. Motivated by the success of SSMs, we present MambaMixer, a new architecture with data-dependent weights that uses a dual selection mechanism across tokens and channels, called Selective Token and Channel Mixer. MambaMixer connects selective mixers using a weighted averaging mechanism, allowing layers to have direct access to early features. As a proof of concept, we design Vision MambaMixer (ViM2) and Time Series MambaMixer (TSM2) architectures based on the MambaMixer block and explore their performance in various vision and time series forecasting tasks. Our results underline the importance of selective mixing across both tokens and channels. In ImageNet classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks, ViM2 achieves competitive performance with well-established vision models and outperforms SSM-based vision models. In time series forecasting, TSM2 achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art methods while demonstrating significantly improved computational cost. These results show that while Transformers, cross-channel attention, and MLPs are sufficient for good performance in time series forecasting, neither is necessary.

The integration of machine learning tools into telecom networks, has led to two prevailing paradigms, namely, language-based systems, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), and physics-based systems, such as Digital Twins (DTs). While LLM-based approaches enable flexible interaction and automation, they lack explicit representations of network dynamics. DTs, in contrast, offer a high-fidelity network simulation, but remain scenario-specific and are not designed for learning or decision-making under uncertainty. This gap becomes critical for 6G systems, where decisions must take into account the evolving network states, uncertainty, and the cascading effects of control actions across multiple layers. In this article, we introduce the {Telecom World Model}~(TWM) concept, an architecture for learned, action-conditioned, uncertainty-aware modeling of telecom system dynamics. We decompose the problem into two interacting worlds, a controllable system world consisting of operator-configurable settings and an external world that captures propagation, mobility, traffic, and failures. We propose a three-layer architecture, comprising a field world model for spatial environment prediction, a control/dynamics world model for action-conditioned Key Performance Indicator (KPI) trajectory prediction, and a telecom foundation model layer for intent translation and orchestration. We showcase a comparative analysis between existing paradigms, which demonstrates that TWM jointly provides telecom state grounding, fast action-conditioned roll-outs, calibrated uncertainty, multi-timescale dynamics, model-based planning, and LLM-integrated guardrails. Furthermore, we present a proof-of-concept on network slicing to validate the proposed architecture, showing that the full three-layer pipeline outperforms single-world baselines and accurately predicts KPI trajectories.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is a method for enhancing model performance by directly optimizing for the preferences or rankings of outcomes, instead of traditional loss functions. This approach has proven effective in aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences. Despite its widespread use across various tasks, DPO has been criticized for its sensitivity to the effectiveness of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and its limitations in enabling models to learn human-preferred responses, leading to less satisfactory performance. To address these limitations, we propose Aligned Supervised Fine-Tuning (ASFT), an effective approach that better aligns LLMs with pair-wise datasets by optimizing absolute likelihood for each response, rather than using the Bradley-Terry model, and eliminates the need for a reference model. Through theoretical gradient analysis, we demonstrate that ASFT mitigates the issue where the DPO loss function decreases the probability of generating human-dispreferred data at a faster rate than it increases the probability of producing preferred data. Additionally, we compare ASFT to DPO and its latest variants, such as the single-step approach ORPO, using the latest instruction-tuned model Llama3, which has been fine-tuned on UltraFeedback and HH-RLHF. We evaluated performance on instruction-following benchmarks like MT-Bench and traditional text generation metrics such as BLEU-4 and ROUGE-L. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ASFT is an effective alignment approach, consistently outperforming existing methods.

This is an extended version of our publication Learning state machines from data streams: A generic strategy and an improved heuristic, International Conference on Grammatical Inference (ICGI) 2023, Rabat, Morocco. It has been extended with a formal proof on PAC-bounds, and the discussion and analysis of a similar approach has been moved from the appendix and now has a full dedicated section. State machine models are models that simulate the behavior of discrete event systems, capable of representing systems such as software systems, network interactions, and control systems, and have been researched extensively. The nature of most learning algorithms however is the assumption that all data be available at the beginning of the algorithm, and little research has been done in learning state machines from streaming data. In this paper, we want to close this gap further by presenting a generic method for learning state machines from data streams, as well as a merge heuristic that uses sketches to account for incomplete prefix trees. We implement our approach in an open-source state merging library and compare it with existing methods. We show the effectiveness of our approach with respect to run-time, memory consumption, and quality of results on a well known open dataset. Additionally, we provide a formal analysis of our algorithm, showing that it is capable of learning within the PAC framework, and show a theoretical improvement to increase run-time, without sacrificing correctness of the algorithm in larger sample sizes.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard paradigm for post-training and aligning Large Language Models (LLMs), yet recent evidence suggests it faces a persistent "capability ceiling": unlike classical RL systems that discover novel strategies, RL for LLMs often acts as a mere refiner of patterns already latent in pre-trained weights. In this work, we identify a fundamental structural bottleneck: while classical RL relies on compact, informative Markov states, current LLM post-training formulations are tethered to an ever-expanding history of actions. We revisit a classical principle long central to RL yet absent from LLM post-training: explicit Markov states. Theoretically, we provide rigorous guarantees demonstrating that leveraging estimated Markov states can significantly reduce sample complexity. Empirically, we show that introducing Markov states consistently breaks the performance boundaries of standard RL post-training across a suite of complex logic puzzles. Our findings suggest that moving beyond "history-as-state" modeling in favor of structured Markovian representations is essential for unlocking open-ended discovery and genuinely new reasoning capabilities in Generative AI.

Deep learning models are increasingly employed for perception, prediction, and control in complex systems. Embedding physical knowledge into these models is crucial for achieving realistic and consistent outputs, a challenge often addressed by physics-informed machine learning. However, integrating physical knowledge with representation learning becomes difficult when dealing with high-dimensional observation data, such as images, particularly under conditions of incomplete or imprecise state information. To address this, we propose Physically Interpretable World Models, a novel architecture that aligns learned latent representations with real-world physical quantities. Our method combines a variational autoencoder with a dynamical model that incorporates unknown system parameters, enabling the discovery of physically meaningful representations. By employing weak supervision with interval-based constraints, our approach eliminates the reliance on ground-truth physical annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the quality of learned representations while achieving accurate predictions of future states, advancing the field of representation learning in dynamic systems.

Recent successes in autoregressive (AR) generation models, such as the GPT series in natural language processing, have motivated efforts to replicate this success in visual tasks. Some works attempt to extend this approach to autonomous driving by building video-based world models capable of generating realistic future video sequences and predicting ego states. However, prior works tend to produce unsatisfactory results, as the classic GPT framework is designed to handle 1D contextual information, such as text, and lacks the inherent ability to model the spatial and temporal dynamics essential for video generation. In this paper, we present DrivingWorld, a GPT-style world model for autonomous driving, featuring several spatial-temporal fusion mechanisms. This design enables effective modeling of both spatial and temporal dynamics, facilitating high-fidelity, long-duration video generation. Specifically, we propose a next-state prediction strategy to model temporal coherence between consecutive frames and apply a next-token prediction strategy to capture spatial information within each frame. To further enhance generalization ability, we propose a novel masking strategy and reweighting strategy for token prediction to mitigate long-term drifting issues and enable precise control. Our work demonstrates the ability to produce high-fidelity and consistent video clips of over 40 seconds in duration, which is over 2 times longer than state-of-the-art driving world models. Experiments show that, in contrast to prior works, our method achieves superior visual quality and significantly more accurate controllable future video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/YvanYin/DrivingWorld.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

Modern generative models typically rely on an adversarial critic, a prescribed noise-to-data path, or an autoregressive factorization. Instead, we show that a proper distributional energy can induce sample-level motion and provide direct regression supervision for a one-step generator. Three-Body Scattering Modeling (TBSM) for generation turns the energy distance into a constant-size per-projectile interaction: each projectile is attracted toward one real source and repelled from one independently generated source. Conditioned on the projectile and its condition, its expectation equals the 2-Wasserstein gradient-flow velocity of frac12D_E^2(P_θ,Q). A batch of B frozen-target events yields O(B) sample-level losses, each using one reference for its condition instead of the minibatch-wide all-pairs field used by methods such as Drifting Models. Tracking this conditional expectation online can reduce field noise. Using scattering in frozen image features, TBSM trains one-step generators on ImageNet-256, achieving FID{}=2.23 with pixel-space PixelDiT-XL and FID{}=1.63 with latent-space DiT-XL at NFE{}=1. We provide a design map relating diffusion-related supervision, Drift-like dynamics, and GAN-like objectives. These results establish tracked scattering as a route to high-dimensional one-step generation. Code: https://github.com/sp12138/TBSM.

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (DiffuTraj) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples. Our method leverages model self-play to generate pairs of diverse reasoning trajectories and probabilistic forecasts for a set of diverse questions that resolve after the models' knowledge cutoff date. We then rank pairs of these reasoning traces by their distance to the actual outcomes before fine-tuning the model via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). On a separate test set, our approach increases prediction accuracy of Phi-4 14B and DeepSeek-R1 14B by between 7--10\% over a base model and a DPO fine-tuned control model with randomized labels, bringing them on par with forecasting capabilities of much larger frontier models like GPT-4o.

We study the problem of procedure planning in instructional videos, which aims to make a goal-oriented sequence of action steps given partial visual state observations. The motivation of this problem is to learn a structured and plannable state and action space. Recent works succeeded in sequence modeling of steps with only sequence-level annotations accessible during training, which overlooked the roles of states in the procedures. In this work, we point out that State CHangEs MAtter (SCHEMA) for procedure planning in instructional videos. We aim to establish a more structured state space by investigating the causal relations between steps and states in procedures. Specifically, we explicitly represent each step as state changes and track the state changes in procedures. For step representation, we leveraged the commonsense knowledge in large language models (LLMs) to describe the state changes of steps via our designed chain-of-thought prompting. For state change tracking, we align visual state observations with language state descriptions via cross-modal contrastive learning, and explicitly model the intermediate states of the procedure using LLM-generated state descriptions. Experiments on CrossTask, COIN, and NIV benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed SCHEMA model achieves state-of-the-art performance and obtains explainable visualizations.

Learning dynamics, which describes how the learning of specific training examples influences the model's predictions on other examples, gives us a powerful tool for understanding the behavior of deep learning systems. We study the learning dynamics of large language models during different types of finetuning, by analyzing the step-wise decomposition of how influence accumulates among different potential responses. Our framework allows a uniform interpretation of many interesting observations about the training of popular algorithms for both instruction tuning and preference tuning. In particular, we propose a hypothetical explanation of why specific types of hallucination are strengthened after finetuning, e.g., the model might use phrases or facts in the response for question B to answer question A, or the model might keep repeating similar simple phrases when generating responses. We also extend our framework and highlight a unique "squeezing effect" to explain a previously observed phenomenon in off-policy direct preference optimization (DPO), where running DPO for too long makes even the desired outputs less likely. This framework also provides insights into where the benefits of on-policy DPO and other variants come from. The analysis not only provides a novel perspective of understanding LLM's finetuning but also inspires a simple, effective method to improve alignment performance.

Hallucination remains a major challenge for Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has gained increasing attention as a simple solution to hallucination issues. It directly learns from constructed preference pairs that reflect the severity of hallucinations in responses to the same prompt and image. Nonetheless, different data construction methods in existing works bring notable performance variations. We identify a crucial factor here: outcomes are largely contingent on whether the constructed data aligns on-policy w.r.t the initial (reference) policy of DPO. Theoretical analysis suggests that learning from off-policy data is impeded by the presence of KL-divergence between the updated policy and the reference policy. From the perspective of dataset distribution, we systematically summarize the inherent flaws in existing algorithms that employ DPO to address hallucination issues. To alleviate the problems, we propose On-Policy Alignment (OPA)-DPO framework, which uniquely leverages expert feedback to correct hallucinated responses and aligns both the original and expert-revised responses in an on-policy manner. Notably, with only 4.8k data, OPA-DPO achieves an additional reduction in the hallucination rate of LLaVA-1.5-7B: 13.26% on the AMBER benchmark and 5.39% on the Object-Hal benchmark, compared to the previous SOTA algorithm trained with 16k samples. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/zhyang2226/OPA-DPO.

This paper studies the theoretical framework of the alignment process of generative models with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). We consider a standard mathematical formulation, the reverse-KL regularized contextual bandit for RLHF. Despite its widespread practical application, a rigorous theoretical analysis of this formulation remains open. We investigate its behavior in three distinct settings -- offline, online, and hybrid -- and propose efficient algorithms with finite-sample theoretical guarantees. Moving towards practical applications, our framework, with a robust approximation of the information-theoretical policy improvement oracle, naturally gives rise to several novel RLHF algorithms. This includes an iterative version of the Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) algorithm for online settings, and a multi-step rejection sampling strategy for offline scenarios. Our empirical evaluations on real-world alignment experiment of large language model demonstrate that these proposed methods significantly surpass existing strong baselines, such as DPO and Rejection Sampling Optimization (RSO), showcasing the connections between solid theoretical foundations and their powerful practical implementations.

Alternatives to backpropagation have long been studied to better understand how biological brains may learn. Recently, they have also garnered interest as a way to train neural networks more efficiently. By relaxing constraints inherent to backpropagation (e.g., symmetric feedforward and feedback weights, sequential updates), these methods enable promising prospects, such as local learning. However, the tradeoffs between different methods in terms of final task performance, convergence speed, and ultimately compute and data requirements are rarely outlined. In this work, we use scaling laws to study the ability of Direct Feedback Alignment~(DFA) to train causal decoder-only Transformers efficiently. Scaling laws provide an overview of the tradeoffs implied by a modeling decision, up to extrapolating how it might transfer to increasingly large models. We find that DFA fails to offer more efficient scaling than backpropagation: there is never a regime for which the degradation in loss incurred by using DFA is worth the potential reduction in compute budget. Our finding comes at variance with previous beliefs in the alternative training methods community, and highlights the need for holistic empirical approaches to better understand modeling decisions.

Offline reinforcement learning learns an effective policy on offline datasets without online interaction, and it attracts persistent research attention due to its potential of practical application. However, extrapolation error generated by distribution shift will still lead to the overestimation for those actions that transit to out-of-distribution(OOD) states, which degrades the reliability and robustness of the offline policy. In this paper, we propose Contextual Conservative Q-Learning(C-CQL) to learn a robustly reliable policy through the contextual information captured via an inverse dynamics model. With the supervision of the inverse dynamics model, it tends to learn a policy that generates stable transition at perturbed states, for the fact that pertuebed states are a common kind of OOD states. In this manner, we enable the learnt policy more likely to generate transition that destines to the empirical next state distributions of the offline dataset, i.e., robustly reliable transition. Besides, we theoretically reveal that C-CQL is the generalization of the Conservative Q-Learning(CQL) and aggressive State Deviation Correction(SDC). Finally, experimental results demonstrate the proposed C-CQL achieves the state-of-the-art performance in most environments of offline Mujoco suite and a noisy Mujoco setting.

The most fundamental capability of modern AI methods such as Large Language Models (LLMs) is the ability to predict the next token in a long sequence of tokens, known as ``sequence modeling." Although the Transformers model is the current dominant approach to sequence modeling, its quadratic computational cost with respect to sequence length is a significant drawback. State-space models (SSMs) offer a promising alternative due to their linear decoding efficiency and high parallelizability during training. However, existing SSMs often rely on seemingly ad hoc linear recurrence designs. In this work, we explore SSM design through the lens of online learning, conceptualizing SSMs as meta-modules for specific online learning problems. This approach links SSM design to formulating precise online learning objectives, with state transition rules derived from optimizing these objectives. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel deep SSM architecture based on the implicit update for optimizing an online regression objective. Our experimental results show that our models outperform state-of-the-art SSMs, including the Mamba model, on standard sequence modeling benchmarks and language modeling tasks.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

In Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and agent-based frameworks, the "Chain of Models" approach is widely used, where multiple specialized models work sequentially on distinct sub-tasks. This approach is effective but increases resource demands as each model must be deployed separately. Recent advancements attempt to address this by applying prompt tuning, which allows a shared base model to adapt to multiple tasks with minimal parameter changes. However, a key challenge remains: intermediate outputs, passed between models as plain text, require recomputation of hidden states (i.e., Key and Value (KV) states in Transformers) during inference. In this paper, we introduce FTHSS, a novel prompt-tuning method that enables models to share KV hidden states, eliminating redundant forward passes and reducing KV cache storage. By modifying input and attention masks during training, FTHSS allows models to effectively utilize KV hidden states from prior models in both single- and multi-round scenarios. Empirical results on four tasks show that FTHSS matches the performance of traditional model chains while improving inference efficiency.